We’re not going to start at the beginning, because the beginning has already happened. We’ll start near the beginning, or precisely 638 days since the beginning. Which was Wednesday night. The Red Sox were in the midst of losing a ballgame because they couldn’t muster up any offense against Phil Klein, of all people.
Pretty quickly, Bogaerts came to bat, and he hit the type of homer that creates a host of hyperbolic statements. The ball was sent out so fast, you’d think that Bogaerts had sent it to an expensive boarding school in Wellesley.
It was the type of homer that makes you very, very excited to be a fan of the Sox, or of just Bogaerts. The one that makes you think that anything is possible, that all outcomes are in play. Absolutely all of them.
Xander’s gonna do that like 350 more times in his career and I am gonna love every one equally
— Ben Carsley (@BenCarsley) May 21, 2015
Sure. Okay then. Obviously, Ben was kidding here — he’s a #statsguy who stated this because he loves both Bogaerts and hyperbole and was drinking wine. It’s not meant to be taken at face value — it was a joke. Even still, my response was this: “If if he hits 350 more HR in his career, I will eat a whole Red Sox hat.”
I’m hardly down on Xander, despite the initial returns being less than stellar. And I don’t love to eat hats. That’s not me, and that’s not what prompted my response to our fearless leader’s effusive comment.
What did prompt my response was the simple difficulty of hitting 365 homers (Xander’s previous 15, in addition to Ben’s pending 350) in any era, much less this offensively-challenged time. I mean, let’s look at our priors.
Xander Bogaerts is, at least for now, a shortstop. A complete list of all the shortstops who’ve hit more than 365 homers includes just three names: Alex Rodriguez, Ernie Banks, and Cal Ripken Jr. No one else. The next shortstop on the all-time HR list is the immortal (perhaps literally immortal) Miguel Tejada with 307. Robin Yount, an all-timer and Hall-of-Famer, had 251 dingers. Former Red Sox greats Nomar Garciaparra and Rico Petrocelli had 229 and 210 home runs, respectively. Current teammate Hanley Ramirez, one of the prime offensive shortstops of his era, has 201 jacks.
But maybe you think that Bogaerts is merely moonlighting at shortstop until he takes a real job at third base. Maybe you think that’s where his future lies … and third basemen hit more home runs. In many respects, this is true. There are 12 third basemen (not including Rodriguez or Ripken) who hit 365 or more homers. Sure, it would mean Xander needs to hit more career homers than noted sluggers like George Brett, or Troy Glaus, or Dick Allen. But it’s within the realm of possibility, right?
My question here is — why are we trying to crush this young man with expectations so outside the realm of reasonable belief?
Now let’s say you’re that rare breed of Sox fan — the one that thinks that Xander has nigh-unlimited offensive potential, but think that maybe he won’t even stick in the infield at all. You might want to compare him to the entire spectrum of big-leaguers. Even then, you’re only looking at 80 total players in big-league history, who’ve hit more than 365 homers in their career. 365 bombs would slide Xander right in between Lance Berkman and Joe DiMaggio at 81st on the all-time list. No big deal.
My question here is — why are we trying to crush this young man with expectations so outside the realm of reasonable belief? Xander could be a remarkably talented player with a productive career without sniffing 365 homers. Hell, he could be that player and never top 200 homers. Per my numbers, there are 5,772 hitters with more than 400 plate appearances in major league history, so are we really interested in trying to put him in that 99.9th percentile of power hitters?
Of course, maybe Bogaerts will have one of those improbable, legendary careers like Ernie Banks. Perhaps his best career comp really is Cal Ripken Jr. Perhaps they’ll end up renaming his home island of Aruba after him. It’s fun to dream.
But Bogaerts can be a really, really good player without having a no-doubt Hall of Fame career. He doesn’t need to be Ripken to be wildly successful. He doesn’t need to hit the fourth-most homers of any shortstop in history. If Xander is an above-average hitter at shortstop, or an average-to-above-average hitter at third base, that’s pretty worthwhile too.
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