Two steps forward, one giant, awful step back.
Top Play (WPA): The top three plays by WPA all belonged to the Twins. Eduardo Nunez doubled in the first to drive in Eduardo Escobar (.124) to lead the way, while Trevor Plouffe’s three-run blast in the second (.090) made it 7-0 and all but ended this game before it was even a third of the way over. Brian Dozier’s double to lead off the game (.057) rounds out the top three, and should demonstrate how ineffective Joe Kelly was from the get-go.
Bottom Play (WPA): Hanley Ramirez grounded into a double play in the top of the first inning (-.086). It’s always a good sign when your most prominent chance to score is squandered in the first inning, especially when Ricky Nolasco is the opposing starter! At least through failing to put many runners on base, the Red Sox didn’t torture us by squandering baserunner after baserunner in scoring position. Such is the sad silver lining we must look for.
The next three worst plays by WPA all came courtesy of the Red Sox as well: David Ortiz’s flyout in the first (-.051), Xander Bogaerts’ strikeout in the second (-.037) and Daniel Nava’s flyout in second (-.034).
Key Moment: The entire bottom of the second was really the key moment in this one. Plouffe’s homerun transformed this outing from “maybe Kelly will escape” to “oh dear god this is a disaster,” so perhaps that should be the winner here.
Trends to Watch: How many more times can the Red Sox let Joe Kelly start? Yes, his two appearances before this one were quite good, but Kelly is way too prone to blow-ups to trust and hitters are making consistent hard contact against him. Kelly now has a 6.24 ERA and while his FIP is down at 4.53, he’s not even an average MLB starter right now. Kelly should consider himself lucky that Justin Masterson was even worse than he’s been, because in most organizations Kelly would be out of a job right now.
Hanley Ramirez’s incredible, amazingly, stupendously poor defense is another trend that’s becoming quite aggravating to watch. From the way he saunters after balls to his lack of range to the long, exaggerated windup he uses to throw the ball back in the general vicinity of the infield, Ramirez is a mess with the glove. This probably isn’t David Ortiz’s last year, but it’s tough to see how the Sox are going to go another 280+ games pretending that Hanley can be an outfielder.
Coming Next: Clay Buchholz takes the mound against Mike Pelfrey tonight, and while Buchholz has been quite good as of late, so has Pelfrey. Yes, that was a strange sentence to type. With Pablo Sandoval back in the swing of things, the Sox should be able to put their best lineup forward, and they’ll likely need to given the Twins’ surprising offensive prowess so far this year. If nothing else, ensuring that this game is competitive into the fourth or fifth inning would be great.
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