So you find yourself rooting for a sinking ship. I’d like to say this is a new phenomenon for Red Sox fans, but unfortunately this is somewhere we’ve been before. Of course, it’s too early for an official eulogy for this team. There’s enough talent on the roster where it’s possible they can go on a big winning streak that vaults them into the race.
With that being said, it’s not incredibly likely. They’ve dug themselves into an eight-game hole, and have just been playing plain bad baseball all year. It’s not as if they’ve found themselves on the losing end of a bunch of one-run games, either. The Red Sox currently sport a -57 run differential, a mark that is better than just three other teams in all of baseball.
All of this is to say that while there is still enough time left to keep some faith, we’ve seen enough subpar play to not get our hopes up too high. With the trade deadline just six weeks away, we’re getting to the time of the year that teams need to decide their strategies moving forward. Right now, it sure looks like Boston should sell off their extra veterans for young pieces with an eye toward the future. What exactly do they have to sell, though?
The Newbies
If some had their way, both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval would be shipped out in the next few weeks. There are certainly some positives that would come with dealing their new high-priced hitters, not the least of which would be clearing some money over the next few years. Of course, it’s not going to happen. The money that both Ramirez and Sandoval have attached to them, combined with their fine-but-underwhelming performances, means they don’t carry much value. Boston signed both of these players with their eyes on the next few seasons, and it’d be incredibly surprising to see them scrap that plan to go get pennies on the dollar for two players who should be a big part of their lineup for the foreseeable future.
The Heroes
From a strictly baseball operations viewpoint, the Red Sox may be smart to deal both Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz this summer. The former’s value is as high as it’s been in a few years, with his power stroke coming back and his defense still looking mostly fine. The same can’t be said for Ortiz, but he’s looked much better lately, and one could certainly imagine a bidding war for his services. Not only would they be able to get a decent haul back, they’d move some of their current pieces to more natural positions. Mookie Betts has performed admirably in center field, but moving him back to second base full time would create one of the most promising middle infield combinations in baseball. Hanley Ramirez has been anything but admirable in left, and should really be serving as the designated hitter sooner rather than later. Of course, this isn’t going to happen, and for good reason. Both Pedroia and Ortiz are built in to the fabric of this franchise, and as much sense as it may make, there’s no way the Red Sox have sunk this low.
The Relievers
Now that we have the unrealistic scenarios out of the way, we can start to look at some players who may actually be dealt. Relief pitchers always have a surprising amount of value at the trade deadline. Contending teams could always use one more strong arm out of their bullpen, and are typically willing to pay an unexpected price for it. For proof, one needn’t look further than the Andrew Miller deal from a year ago. So, with that in mind, let’s take a quick look at the relievers Boston could deal this year.
We start, of course, with Koji Uehara. Although his track record speaks for itself, he hasn’t looked quite the same this season, which is understandable for a 40-year-old arm. He’s also under contract for $9 million next season. It’s the rare situation in which not being a rental hurts a player’s value. Unless he goes on a strong run for the next few weeks, Boston may have to eat some money to get a desirable return.
The most valuable relief chip the Red Sox hold is undoubtedly Junichi Tazawa. The 29-year-old has come a long way in his career, and is now one of the better relievers in the game. Since coming up full-time in 2012, he boasts a 2.60 ERA with a 2.81 FIP and a 5.36 K/BB ratio. On top of that, he’s cheap and under control through next season. Despite the fact that he’s the best in-house candidate to replace Uehara as closer, and the fact that he’s one of my favorite pitchers to watch, the Red Sox would be silly to pass up the chance to cash in his trade value now.
Beyond these two, the Red Sox could also look to flip guys like Alexi Ogando and Tommy Layne, too. Neither would fetch much of a return, but considering the low acquisition price for each of them, Boston would surely come out ahead in either transaction. They are also two relatively replaceable pitchers.
The Injured
Boston’s disabled list also currently hosts a couple of chips that could be valuable if they make their return with enough time to build some value back up. Shane Victorino would be a half-year rental, so his value would be low, but there are certainly some teams who could use him on their bench. He plays strong defense, hits lefties well and provides important leadership in the clubhouse. While that’s certainly not worth a blue-chip prospect, it can fetch something.
Daniel Nava is also an interesting name to keep an eye on, if for no other reason besides finally getting an idea of how the league values him. He’s always seemed a bit underrated as a strong on-base presence who can play well enough in left field. With the glut of outfielders in the organization, the Red Sox should look to deal Nava, but they shouldn’t give him away.
The Rental
Beyond the relievers and injured players, there are two big trade chips for the Red Sox should they go down the selling road. The most obvious one is Mike Napoli. He’s a free agent after the season, and the Red Sox will likely look elsewhere in their organization to fill first base in 2016. Unfortunately, he’s killed much of his value this year with a horrible showing at the plate. He was never going to fetch too much in a trade, but if he can get hot for a month, a hitting-starving team could give up an interesting prospect for his services.
The “Ace?”
Can I call Clay Buchholz that? I’m going to call him that, even if it doesn’t fit. This is easily Boston’s most interesting trade chip. He’s been one of the most frustrating pitchers in the game throughout his career, but there’s no denying how talented he is when he’s on his game. One could certainly describe 2015 Buchholz as “on his game,” too, despite what his ERA says. His peripherals tell a much different story, and teams around the league will realize that. The 30-year-old also carries a reasonable $13 million team option for next season, and a $13.5 team option for 2017, so he’s not necessarily a rental. The injury history and general inconsistency will hurt, but the talent could make him Boston’s most valuable trade chip.
The only issue is, he could be their best pitcher next season, too. Do the Red Sox really want to give up on that? It’s a complex issue, especially considering Buchholz’s tendency to blow up. As much as I believe in the talent, they almost have to pull the trigger if anyone is willing to give up a significant piece for him.
Unfortunately for the Red Sox, this isn’t another 2014 where they had big-time trade chips in Jon Lester and John Lackey. There aren’t a lot of pieces that will bring back significant value. Napoli is the most obvious chip, but his rough season has killed all the value he could carry. If they want to make a mark at this deadline, they’ll have to deal guys like Tazawa and Buchholz, despite what it could do to their chances in 2016.
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