Well folks, this is it, the end of the line. This year has been … interesting … ah, who am I kidding, it has mostly sucked but the last month of baseball has been an absolute joy! Fresh off their dominance in the Bronx the Red Sox will look to close out 2015 by pushing their record to .500. Getting the team to a .500 record seemed like a long shot heading into the month of September but thanks to a 17-10 run, good for a .630 winning percentage, it is totally obtainable. Terry Francona’s Indians are going to be no pushovers since they have quality arms a-plenty, including last year’s Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. If Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart, and the crew can continue buying pizzas for strangers and hitting home runs, they just might get it done.
Cleveland Indians – Current Record: 78-80
The Indians have home field advantage and their own quest to run their record to .500 or above. Like the Red Sox, the Indians have played their best baseball in the second half off the season, going 36-33 with a run differential of +38 over that time. This record is identical to the Red Sox’s over the same time span, however the Red Sox have boasted an even more impressive run differential of +48. The Indians team as a whole pitches pretty well, ranking ninth in ERA but third in baseball in DRA with a mark of 3.88. Hitting has not been as good for this club as they rank just 22nd in baseball with a TAv of just .255. The Red Sox, by comparison, have hit .261 as a team, good for 17th. Thankfully for the Indians they have been much more able with the lumber at home, posting a 106 OPS+ at Progressive Field while struggling with a 96 OPS+ while away. Needless to say, horrible defense aside, these Indians will not be an easy opponent. The Red Sox are 2-1 in the season series as they look to continue that trend and their recent winning ways.
Probables
Henry Owens vs. Josh Tomlin, Friday, 7:10 p.m.
Owens is just one start removed from closing out the season at Fenway Park in style. In what was undoubtedly his best outing of the year, Owens gave Don Orsillo a proper farewell by going 7.2 IP to shut out the Orioles at home, striking out five batters and allowing just three hits. While the Orioles were one of the weakest teams in the league vs. left-handed pitchers, the Indians are actually a bit better than league average, posting a 104 OPS+. Against left-handed starters alone they have been much worse, though, with a mark of 93. Also working in Owens’ favor is that the Indians have never faced him before and he has a 1.99 road ERA, light-years ahead of the 5.00 ERA he has posted at home.
Tomlin has only been starting since August 17, however the results have been mostly positive in this limited sample size. Over 59.1 IP he has struck out close to eight batters per nine while walking less than one. Tomlin is fairly prone to the fly ball, posting a rate of 48.2% and a HR/FB rate of 15%. The way the Sox have been swinging the bats these past few weeks, home runs could quickly become an issue. Slight advantage for the Red Sox here.
Craig Breslow vs. Corey Kluber, Saturday, 7:10 p.m.
With Eduardo Rodriguez shut down for the season due to workload the Red Sox will once again hand the ball to Breslow in what should be a fairly taxing day on their bullpen. Last time out on September 26, Breslow and co. combined for a bullpen-only shutout of the Orioles, with Breslow himself contributing four strong frames, striking out just two. I am less optimistic this time out.
The Klubot gets to make one last start in front of the home crowd where he has posted a 3.05 ERA this season. It was also the site of the most impressive pitching performance of the season when he struck out 18 Cardinals over 8 IP in May. Those same Cardinals just won their 100th game on Wednesday so this performance plays up in my mind. Despite his 3.62 ERA the advanced stats continue to like Kluber more than Drew Carey loves Cleveland. His DRA is 3.35 15th best in baseball and his cFIP of 71, which is predictive, is even more impressive, ranking him seventh best in baseball among starters with 100 IP. This one is likely a loss.
Rick Porcello vs. Danny Salazar, Sunday, 3:10 p.m.
The final matchup of the year for both teams looks like a mismatch on paper in favor of the Indians. Salazar has had a pretty solid year, posting a 3.51 ERA and a very healthy K-BB rate of 18.6%. Porcello on the surface looks like the turd he was for much of the season, countering with an ugly 5.02 ERA and a decent K-BB rate of 14.9%.
Lately, the story for both of these pitchers have been very different. Salazar has struggled in September with a bloated ERA of 4.76 while Porcello has surged with a mark of 3.74. While Porcello has been by no means elite anyone that has watched him knows he has been attacking batters differently. This contest is too close to call.
Opposing Lineup
Perhaps no lineup in all of baseball possesses more switch-hitters than the Indians, however, this has not led them to success. The team has been slightly harder on left-handed pitching than it has righties but they aren’t keeping any pitchers up at night.
Jason Kipnis – 2B – L
Jose Ramirez – 3B – S
Francisco Lindor – SS – S
Carlos Santana – 1B – S
Yan Gomes – C – R
Lonnie Chisenhall – RF – L
Chris Johnson – DH – R
Abraham Almonte – CF– S
Mike Aviles – LF – R
Offense along with improved defense are where the Red Sox hold the advantage over Tito’s boys.
Recap
It’s been a long year for Red Sox fans across the nation who have had to suffer though some pretty ugly months of baseball. Lately, what we have seen from the club has been inspired play that leaves me dreaming about what the team could look like during the 2016 campaign. Every position on the team has an answer as we head into the off-season, but some are more pronounced. Pablo Sandoval at third base, Hanley Ramirez at first base and Rusney Castillo in the outfield are far from sure things. If one or two of those issues can be addressed via free agency or trade and Dombrowski can land his coveted ace the Red Sox will be half a bullpen away from being a complete team. Stay with us over what I expect to be one of the busiest and exciting off-seasons we will have ever covered and thanks for reading our stuff all year.
Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images
Kluber has not pitched well for a while now. Logic says the Sox will be lucky to win 2 of 3, but I wouldn’t cede the Kluber game.