When the Sox inked Hanley Ramirez to his four-year, $88 million deal before the 2015 offseason, I liked it. I liked it because I liked Hanley as a ballplayer, because he was coming off a pretty good season for Los Angeles, and because I thought he would age well into his mid-30s. Plus, I’m an absolute sucker for positional versatility, and the idea of him being able to play the outfield as well as fill in at short and third was a real treat.
You know how Hanley’s first season in Boston went: as bad as could have been imagined. Everything went wrong, and in a hurry. He almost instantly went from a 2.8 WARP player to an -1.2 WARP player, a dramatic shift even for a post-contract year.
Today’s goal is not a modest one. We’re going to identify our best guess at how to “fix” Hanley … to return him to something remotely resembling his 2014-and-prior self, and find the path where he provides reasonable value to the 2016 Red Sox. A red-and-navy-blueprint, as it were, for success. And no, it won’t be easy.
OFFENSE
If you ask me–and I’ll imagine you are–I believe that Hanley’s adventure in left field is forgivable, and a slight decline in athleticism is inevitable because time makes fools out of all of us. But the one thing that Hanley Ramirez was supposed to do in 2015 was hit. He didn’t. Even when you factor in his recent Hindenburg year, he has a career .303 True Average (TAv), well above the mean for the league. Yet, in this past campaign, he posted a .252 TAv–well below what one would expect from a league-average hitter, and a big part of why he sucked value out of the Sox.
An examination of Hanley’s batted-ball data reveals two things: he hit the ball on the ground more often last year (50 percent groundball rate, up from 45 percent the year before), and he also hit the ball softer (24.3 percent Soft%, versus a career 16.9% mark). The truth about grounders are that they’re a young man’s game; in order to get the most out of being a worm-killer on offense, you have to have some speed to run out more of those dirt-grabbers. Unfortunately, as we’ll examine later, one of the biggest factors in Hanley’s 2015 was an overall decrease in athleticism.
One of the biggest factors in Hanley’s 2015 was an overall decrease in athleticism.
Anyways, if you then take a gander at his plate discipline stats … actually not very much changed at all. Nick Canelas pointed out (truthfully) in his Roster Recap that Ramirez looked terrible swinging wildly at balls out of the zone at times in 2015. At the same time, the big-ticket items like percentage of pitches swung at outside the zone, contact percentage, overall swing percentage–they weren’t that different than his previous seasons. All of those items may have been about 3-7% higher than 2014, but during Ramirez’s best offensive season (2013, for the Dodgers), he was swinging more wildly than he was in 2015. Perhaps the most damning plate discipline number is his contact percentage on balls outside the zone. That went up from 64.4% to 67.3% between 2014 and 2015.
Ramirez’s strikeout rate went up and his walk rate went down in 2015, but he wasn’t really swinging and missing more often. It was more the result of weak contact and driving the ball into the ground. The “fix” here is, uh, to stop doing that. Increased athleticism could help that, but a better bet might be to pick Big Papi’s brain. David Ortiz has remained an elite hitter into his later years by being selective, powerful, and hitting the ball with alacrity despite never being the sveltest guy on the field. If Hanley can return to something close to his old level of performance: — a medium number of homers but hella doubles and a solid OBP — he’ll recoup enough value to make him a useful player, even if nothing else comes around.
BASERUNNING
This is only a small part of the overall calculation but now’s as good a time as any to get it out of the way. I mentioned athleticism as a concern before, and in no area is that as evident as in baserunning. In his younger years, Hanley was an athletic freak, and his baserunning numbers were extraordinary. As he’s transitioned into the later stages of his career, that’s no longer the case: he’s about average at best. Depending on your metric of choice, Hanley was a net negative on the basepaths last year (BP’s BRR had him at dead average, 0.0 runs).
Going into 2016 Spring Training, the team has reportedly asked Hanley to up his game and lose 15-20 pounds. That would definitely make him more agile, one would think. And a more agile, fit Hanley may be a better baserunner. It may only move the needle by a few runs, but the Sox will take anything they can get.
DEFENSE
You know this.
You remember his adventures in left field as ranging from “bad” to “the worst defender I’ve ever seen.” The problem wasn’t just that Ramirez was a god-awful defender, but that he was also a god-awful defender in a non-valuable position. It is important to remember that, since 2010, Hanley Ramirez has been a pretty good hitter, but not usually an excellent hitter. For Hanley to retain much of his value, his slide down the defensive spectrum needs to be gentle, improving his defense at his new position even as the positions he plays become less important.
Positional adjustments by linear weights give us a metric for showing how valuable defense is comparing one spot on the diamond to the other. If we ignore Hanley’s time at shortstop (he ain’t a shortstop any more), and think of him as a third baseman before his conversion to left field, then the difference in runs is about 10 runs over a full season, which is roughly one win. So if Hanley was exactly as good at defense in left field as he was at third base … then he’d still lose about a win off his overall value. As we all know, he was worse in left field than he ever was at third, so the difference in value was all the more awful. This doesn’t usually happen.
For 2016, the expectation is that Ramirez will move to first base, which carries with it another adjustment in terms of positional value. A move from left to first comes with another five-run penalty … meaning that if Ramirez is as horrid at first as we was under the Monster, then he’ll lose another half a win of value.
To fix Hanley, while moving him to first base, requires a dramatic increase in defensive ability. To get his defense even close to where it was before the Great Left Field Disaster, Hanley needs to improve his raw defensive ability by 10-15 runs, or rather become an average-to-good first baseman. And fast.
To fix Hanley, while moving him to first base, requires a dramatic increase in defensive ability.
More than any other “fix,” this actually seems the toughest for me to imagine. I certainly believe that Hanley can become a passable first baseman, especially given a season or two. I think he’ll respond to the quick timing of the infield well (he’s done it before), and he has little problem ranging to his right. Renewed athleticism, as always, will help. But the increase needed here to “go back to the old Hanley” is so big, that it’s tough to imagine him making such a leap.
Last season, Hanley’s WARP dropped to -1.2 from 2.8 the previous year, a four-win drop. To get back to that above-average regular, a lot of thing must go right; he needs to not only regain a portion of his former athleticism, but also leverage it on the basepaths, in the batter’s box, and on the infield dirt. He needs to either become a decent defensive first baseman right away OR become the type of hitter he was in 2013, during his career year.
It sounds to me like expecting “the old Hanley” back is mistake. However, the fixes that need to be made can be made in smaller doses, and that would at least return him to a position where he adds something to the team. Increased patience and better batted-ball velocity will make him a better hitter. Not being a left fielder should make him a better defender. Losing weight may make him a better baserunner.
Sometimes when something’s gone, it’s gone forever. Like that old complete set of 1989 Upper Deck or that cool rock you found in Arizona. But if you work hard, and know what you’re doing, maybe you can find something close to what you lost. Maybe 2013 Hanley Ramirez is gone forever, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that 2016 Hanley could be pretty okay.
Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images
Hanley deliberately bulked up in the weight room (and probably the kitchen) last off-season, and came into camp at least 20 pounds heavier and more muscular than the year before. He was an outfielder now, and not a shortstop.
It was a huge mistake for a lot of reasons. I’m reasonably optimistic he’ll be in better shape this year, and if his shoulders are healed, his hitting should improve.
Defense will depend a lot on his attitude and how hard he’s willing to work to learn a deceptively challenging position.
Thanks for this article. It was well thought out & documented with stats. At Ramirez’ age & at $22m/year he shouldn’t have to be fixed. The Red Sox were living in the past & overly optimistic. This was one of two bad free agent signings by Cherington. It would be helpful, but probably impossible, to trade him.
He wanted to come back to the Sox. He knows he is likely his pal Papi’s successor at DH if he can hit; or the Sox 1B if he chooses. He knows bulking up to hit 40HR and becoming a statue was a mistake. IMO he also knows that his future is fully in his own hands, as he works out with Papi, works 1B religiously in ST and the cages with Davis. He knows he has a Mulligan to re-establish himself as a much loved winner and WS Champ with his Red Sox. I am hoping he works hard.
I keep reading, in many places, where Hanley Ramirez is going to again be a useful player. AIN’T GOIN’ TO HAPPEN! As a life long Red Sox fanatic, I can recall, only too clearly, the quick and utter demise of one Jim Ed Rice, who managed to hit a total of 31 HR’s in his last 3 seasons combined. Hanley looked awful in every aspect of the game last year and if anyone ever looked like he was completely washed up it was Ramirez.