Read Sox: Lineup Optimization, Setting the Rotation and Rusney Castillo’s Rejuvenation

Welcome back to Read Sox. This week we project the best way to organize the lineup, wonder why sluggers are still in the unemployment line and consider who will grab the last two rotation spots. Then we look at the Red Sox’s efforts to develop their young talent, remember that Rusney Castillo still has a chance to earn a role with the team and chew on the idea that Carson Smith’s return may not go as smoothly as many of us have been expecting.

Going Deep

The wheeling and dealing of the offseason is done for the Red Sox and realistically only two positions (catcher, third base) will involve any sort of competition in the Spring, so the discussion of how to best align the players is worth starting. Today, the batting order. Criticizing a batting order for any one game is likely a bit much – playoffs are a different animal – but consistently using sub-optimal lineups can amount to one or two fewer wins over the course of the season. So making an effort to optimize the lineup, which is fairly simple and cheap, is a worthwhile endeavour. You, smart reader of this website, probably already know all this, but I felt the need to further justify discussing the batting order in January. In any case, the batting order comes up because Red Sox manager John Farrell recently discussed it.

In an interview on WEEI, Farrell said that he is considering Andrew Benintendi for the number two spot in the lineup. That seems like a dramatic move for a player who started last year in Double-A. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal examined this idea, outlining how Benintendi’s skillset would work at the top of the order and how having him there would break up the four right-handed batters (i.e., Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez) that are likely to be at the top.

I like the idea of having Benintendi at the top of the order for the reasons MacPherson cites in his article, but I would not hit him second. I would drop him one spot to hit him third. Specifically, here is how I would write out the lineups:

Having Benintendi hit third rather than second may seem minor, but it keeps Betts, the team’s best hitter, in the all-important second spot, splits the right-handed hitters at the top of the order evenly, and prevents overloading things with left-handed hitters in the six through nine spots.

There are two other aspects worth noting about these suggested lineups. First, Pablo Sandoval is considered a switch-hitter, even though that aspect of his game is not necessarily known at this point. His ability to hit right-handed means that hitting him between Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mitch Moreland avoids having back-to-back lefties, thereby making life a little more difficult for opposing managers who want to matchup relievers later in the game. Second, if/when Blake Swihart assumes the primary catching duties, I would slot him into the nine spot currently occupied by Sandy Leon, but I can see the case for flipping him with Sandoval if his offense takes off the way some people think it will.

Ok. I suspect that’s enough lineup talk for now.

Quick Hits

In some respects this offseason has been strange. The most prominent example of this is the number of sluggers who remain unsigned (e.g., Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter) and how the market for those who have signed(e.g., Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista) collapsed. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has more on how the league is valuing sluggers differently than they have in the past. The availability of these offensive threats has Brian MacPherson wondering if the Red Sox moved too quickly in acquiring Mitch Moreland. Perhaps, but I think the team’s desire to get under the luxury tax threshold ruled out all of the marquee names.

As currently constituted, the Red Sox have six candidates for the five starting rotation spots. Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello will certainly hold three of the five spots. The last two are available for Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright to take. On a recent episode of Buster Olney’s Baseball Tonight podcast, Dave Dombroski suggested that Wright and Pomeranz have the inside line. Nick Friar of CSNNE.com examines each possible pairing for the remaining spots and suggests that Dombrowski’s preference is not the best option. Who knows how strongly Dombrowski feels that the spots are Wright and Pomeranz’s to lose. Maybe this was just an old-school-tactic of using the media to try and light a fire under Rodriguez.

While questions remain in the rotation, the starting lineups are pretty much set – well, maybe not at catcher. At MLB.com, Ian Browne has been writing an Around the Horn series that looks at each area of the Red Sox. He started with the relatively unclear status of the catching position, then moved onto the corner infield spots and middle infielders, and finally the Baby Bs in the outfield. The series is definitely worth checking out.

An aspect of the Red Sox organization that likely helped their young core transition to the major league level is the Rookie Development Program that they run. This program is intended to familiarize players expected to reach the big leagues in the near future (~18 months) with members of the front office, the Red Sox coaching staff, and the city of Boston. Alex Speier has details on the eight players invited to the program this year, which includes Rafael Devers, Sam Travis and a bunch of relievers.

Speaking of development, Rusney Castillo – remember him? – is still in the organization and, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, might be back in the mix. This suggestion comes as a result of Castillo’s strong performance with Alex Cora’s team in the Puerto Rico Winter League. While the outfielders at the big league level are established, a solid Spring Training could earn Castillo an opportunity to start in Pawtucket and/or pique the interest of another organization.

Much has been written about the overhauling of the Red Sox bullpen. Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Brad Ziegler are gone. Tyler Thornburg has been added and Joe Kelly has permanently shifted his focus to life as a reliever. Another player who many, including myself, are counting on to provide strong innings out of the bullpen is Carson Smith. Smith is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and as such is not expected to be back with the Red Sox before mid-season. But, as Matt Collins, managing editor (congratulations, Matt!) of Over the Monster, reminds us, coming back from Tommy John surgery is no guarantee. Ideally Smith is more Nate Jones than Bobby Parnell.

Finally, do you want to know what baseball-analytics-legend and Red Sox Senior Advisor Bill James thinks of the 2017 team? Last week he talked to Brian Kenny on MLB Now about that very thing, check out their discussion here.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images