Comments on: What Comes Next http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/11/what-comes-next/ Bringing BP-quality analysis to Boston Mon, 20 Aug 2018 04:19:09 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1 By: Horace Fury http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/11/what-comes-next/#comment-14776 Fri, 13 Oct 2017 04:01:59 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=28063#comment-14776 I think Bogaerts suffers from the same problem that Travis Shaw had, which led to his deportation, namely, they both look awful when they are striking out. Some players look like they simply missed the ball when they whiff. Bogaerts and 2016 Shaw look(ed) like the proverbial deer in the headlights, which is such a bad look that you just don’t want to see it anymore. Bogaerts adds to it a strange-looking kind of piroutette, which is just downright awful to behold as he spins away back to the dugout. These are just really bad at bats, and it’s hard to imagine Bogaerts recouping his 2015 form from this place he now inhabits. Deal him, but my deal to propose in this space now is JBJ, E. Rodriguez, and someone like Jalen Beeks for Marcell Ozuna.

]]> By: Kevin http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/11/what-comes-next/#comment-14770 Wed, 11 Oct 2017 15:31:21 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=28063#comment-14770 I think the moves the Red Sox make in the offseason really depend on their view of Bogaerts. Will he blossom into the middle of the order, .300/.400/.500 hitter he was in the minors and people thought he would be in the majors? Or is he the good-not-great player he’s been? The comp he had as a prospect, and the comp ZiPS assigned to him prior to the 2017 season, was Tulo. When Tulo was 24, he put up a 132 wRC+ and never looked back until he turned 30 and injuries caught up with him. If X did that, he would be a borderline MVP candidate and the Red Sox offense would be back where it should be, top 10 in baseball. With their rotation and bullpen that is a team that is one of the best in baseball and could go up against anyone.

If he doesn’t do that, this offense is unlikely to be significantly better than it was this past year without the addition of power hitter in the middle of the order. For any serious improvement, you are hoping that Mookie or Benintendi can make a McCutchen-esque leap to elite hitter, or Hanley turns back the clock, or Devers immediately hits to his ceiling and doesn’t struggle. All of those are unlikely to happen though.

The moves they make will tell us if they are bearish or bullish on him, because I think it’s either put up or shut up time. He’s not a baby anymore, they have given him a lot of leash and at this point he has been a useful player but not any type of cornerstone of an elite team. If they are bearish, they will blow through the cap and get Stanton or JD Martinez. If they are bullish, I don’t think any major moves will be made, maybe a slight upgrade at 1B somehow. Time will tell.

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