Time To Tighten Up A Disappointing Defense

It seems safe to say that through 38 games, the Red Sox have underwhelmed. They have only outscored their opponents by a total of 9 runs, and correspondingly have a middling 20–18 record. Of course, the plague that ripped through the clubhouse in the first two weeks, injuries to several key players, and playing one of the toughest schedules in the league are all contributors to the mediocre production, but even with those issues understood, the on-field play has been less than inspiring. A lot of attention has been directed at the below-average run scoring of the offense, but while the offense has been slow to get going, for me, much like the defending champs, the shaky defense is what really stands out as problematic.

The defense is an issue because, perhaps more so than any recent season, because this version of the Red Sox was built to win through run prevention. Run prevention is often just thought of as starting pitching, and yes, while the Red Sox have some marquee names in their rotation, run prevention is also catching the ball, throwing to the right base, etc., and the Red Sox came into the season with a bunch of guys who do that well. But they aren’t doing it well. As a simple measure of this: by runs allowed per game the Red Sox have been a little bit better than a league average team. However, look at fielding independent pitching (FIP), which attempts to remove defenders from evaluating pitching performance, and you find that the Red Sox pitchers have been the third best group in the game. The difference between these two things (runs allowed and FIP) is not entirely attributable to good/bad defense, but some portion of it is and it looks like the Red Sox defenders have been failing their pitchers. The position players combining not scoring many runs with not catching the ball suggests they owe the pitchers a round-or-two of rye at the next team dinner.

Bar tabs aside, what is going on? Well, probably a number of things. First, have a look at this rather ominous table:

As you can see, in the playoff seasons (2013 and 2016) the Red Sox turned batted balls into outs at a much higher rate (defensive efficiency [DE] and park-adjusted defensive efficiency [PADE]) than in the division-cellar seasons (2014 and 2015). The bad news is that through Tuesday’s games the 2017 defensive efficiency numbers line up with those forgettable seasons a little too closely. Fortunately, thus far despite the wonky defense the 2017 runs-allowed average relative to the league is in line with the better seasons; this is made possible because the pitchers have struck out more than a quarter of the batters they have faced. Getting back to the defensive efficiency numbers, the difference between the 2016 and 2017 teams is striking given that the 2017 team is pretty much the 2016 team with expected improved defense in left field and at first base. Below is a year-to-year comparison for fielding runs above average:

Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts are on track for better defensive seasons relative to last year, but everyone else has been playing at a level that is about the same or considerably worse. Mitch Moreland is playing much worse than he did last year in his Gold Glove season at first base, but the good news is that he is still on track to be better than Hanley Ramirez (-10.4 FRAA in 1145.0 innings last year). The dropoff for Mookie is stunning, but does not correspond with how the defensive runs saved (DRS) and ultimate zone rating (UZR) metrics see him – both have him performing much better thus far. I am not able to explain why these systems see him so differently. This, from Tuesday night, is a tremendous example of what he can do:

I do love a good outfield assist. Anyway, the difference across metrics is likely a sampling issue, as for all of these comparisons the small sample siren should blare. Defensive metrics in ~300 innings should be given a wide berth. Nevertheless, the initial returns are not looking great for many of the Sox’s defenders, which makes for interesting discussion fodder.

You may have noted that I omitted third basemen from the table above. I did so because too many guys have tried to hack it over there the last two years that it didn’t make for a clean comparison. With that said, as a group, this year’s third basemen are on track to be worse defensively than last year’s group, largely because Travis Shaw was a pretty solid contributor with the glove there last year. Having Deven Marrero man the position for the foreseeable few weeks should help the defense, until Brock Holt and/or Pablo Sandoval are back.

Now, above I mostly absolved the Red Sox pitchers of wrongdoing in the team’s measly start to the season. But, while they are FIPing with the best of them, this year’s group is allowing more hard contact (36.8 Hard Hit %; second highest in baseball) and a higher average exit velocity (88.3 mph, second highest in baseball) than last year’s group did (31.9 [11th], 87.4 [22nd], respectively). Harder hit balls are harder to field and this could explain some of the discrepancy in defensive efficiency from last season. Maybe the pitchers should buy their own drinks for the first round after all.

The batted ball profile of the pitchers is interesting to be sure, but it cannot explain all of the decline in defense the Red Sox are exhibiting through their first 38 games. Maybe, as the old saying goes, they are carrying their offensive woes out to the field. Or maybe it is all just the regular variation in defense that we often see from season-to-season, and the Red Sox have just come up on the wrong side of things more often through the first quarter of the season. Either way, it is hard to imagine that this group will continue to be so sloppy. With Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Chris Young as the four primary outfielders, the Red Sox have a center fielder available for all three spots. Pedroia and Bogaerts are at least average up the middle. As the shine continues to wear off Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez will see more time. There will remain problems on the corners in the infield, but those can be mitigated given the rest of the squad. But that is all on paper. Executing defensively is an often overlooked, but important component of winning baseball. If the Red Sox are going to continue to be limited offensively, at least as compared to last year, they will need to sharpen up their defense if they want to get back on top of the AL East standings.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports