The Red Sox kick off a ten-game home stand on Friday by hosting the Seattle Mariners at gorgeous Fenway Park. It will be nice to both see the Sox play at home as well as go up against an opponent who has been nearly as disappointing as they have been in 2015. Seattle was predicted by many folks to finally have a solid offense to go along with good pitching, but it just hasn’t panned out. Going into the weekend Seattle owns the third worst run differential (-55) in the American League behind the White Sox (-63) and, you guessed it, your Boston Red Sox (-75). Let the weak prey on the weak and may the odds be ever in your favor.
Seattle Mariners – Current Record: 54-61
Although the Mariners haven’t put together the best year on paper there are quite a few things going well for them as of late. Over their last ten contests the team is 7-3 and, as you likely saw on SportsCenter, Hisashi Iwakuma just recently threw a no-hitter. The pitching has been surprisingly solid as of late with Iwakuma and Taijaun Walker having much more success in the second half of the season than they did in the first. Iwakuma battled injuries and posted a mark of 5.22 in the first half and so far his second half ERA sits at a stellar 2.93. Walker has dropped his mark from 4.84 to a respectable 3.86 in the second half. Luckily the Sox will avoid both of these pitchers this weekend, but the Sox will still have to take on the vaunted Felix Hernandez. The series this year sits at 2-2 and will be decided by Sunday night.
Probables
Joe Kelly vs. Mike Montgomery, Friday, 7:10 p.m.
For just the second time since June 17th Kelly allowed fewer than 4 ER, holding the Detroit Tigers to two runs over 5.1 innings earning a rare win during his last start. He allowed seven hits, walked two batter, but struck out seven as well. He looked, dare I say it, pretty good. Kelly has posted back-to-back quality starts only twice this entire year but I think he has a chance to do it once again. The Mariners are batting just .236 vs RHP as a team and with Cruz dealing with some minor health issues their most dangerous hitter is reduced.
The Mariners will counter with Mike Montgomery, a 26-year-old lefty who has been pretty good since moving to the rotation posting a 3.25 ERA over 13 starts. The Red Sox have had a slight bit more success vs. lefties this year, batting .260 against them while posting an only slightly worse mark of .256 against righties. I hesitate to give anyone the edge here but this is one that the Red Sox could steal.
Wade Miley vs. Felix Hernandez, Saturday, 1:35 p.m.
There is a much better chance that “The Kings Court” shows up at Fenway and buys out the Monster Seats than there is of Miley outpitching King Felix. With a 4.68 ERA this year and slightly better numbers in the second half Miley is simply a mediocre No. 5 starter facing a true ace.
King Felix isn’t pitching as well as he has in the past, but that hasn’t stopped him from being on pace for his seventh straight season of 200+ K’s and sub-3.50 ERA. Felix has looked human here in the second half posting a very uncharacteristic 4.05 ERA so far but worrying if he will show up against a weak opponent is like worrying that the sun won’t rise in the morning. He will be just fine. Unless the Sox can attack a weak bullpen late in the contest this one will end in the loss column.
Henry Owens vs. Vidal Nuno, Sunday, 1.35 p.m.
The 6’6” lefty Owens gets the ball for the series finale on Sunday coming of two pretty decent outings to start his major league career. With one win and one loss Owens has held his own against New York and Detroit, holding the later to one earned run on his way to his first major league victory. As I mentioned earlier this is a Mariners team that is better vs. lefties and could give Owens some trouble. He has shown the ability to make adjustments already, swapping his four-seamer for the sinker in his second contest vs. Detroit. If Owens can keep the ball down and effectively mix in a good breaking pitch to go with his sinker and excellent changeup he has a real shot to shine.
If you just looked at the raw numbers Vidal Nuno’s 2.64 ERA and shiny peripherals look pretty darn good—until you realize most of those numbers were accumulated in the bullpen. Nuno has just two starts on the year and has given up three and two runs, respectively. Although he owns a 20.1% K-BB rate through this point in the season I am very skeptical he can continue this success as a starter. Edge here goes to the Sox.
Opposing Lineup
Robinson Cano is hitting a robust .330 over 23 games following the All-Star break, with his exit velocity and contact rates all looking fine. This return to normalcy should have been expected. Cruz has been even hotter during the same time period, batting an insane .375. While the lineup doesn’t look great on paper it has been much better as of late. The replacement of Logan Morrison in favor of Jesus Montero is also looking to be the right call, as he’s hit two home runs and posted a .289 batting average in 16 games.
Austin Jackson – CF – R
Kyle Seager – 3B – L
Nelson Cruz – DH – R
Robinson Cano – 2B – L
Seth Smith – LF – L
Mark Trumbo – RF – R
Jesus Montero – 1B – R
Brad Miller – SS– L
Mike Zunino – C – R
Defense should also play a factor in this series since the Red Sox are currently trotting out an excellent defensive outfield of Rusney Castillo, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley Jr., the Mariners are actually using Mark Trumbo in right field. When you look at the surface the Mariners rank 10th best in baseball in order of number of errors committed but when you dig deeper FanGraphs has them as the 26th best defensive club. They simply don’t have very many athletic fielders that can get to difficult balls.
Recap
I didn’t think I would do this but I am actually going to predict a victory in Joe Kelly’s start on Friday. With that win I think the Sox will take the series 2-1, losing to King Felix in Saturday’s tilt. This could easily go the other way but I am feeling optimistic. When JBJ is hitting the ball all things are possible.
Photo by Andy Marlin/USA Today Sports Images