Johnson’s journey has been tumultuous. He has dealt with physical injuries to his elbow, shoulder, leg, and even his head/brain, after getting hit in the head by a batted ball on more than one occasion. He also battled through a period of depression and anxiety in 2016, and both conditions require persistent attention to manage their impact. As if all of that wasn’t enough, Johnson was held at gunpoint in a car-jacking following the 2015 season. He has been through a lot, but is still fighting for a big league opportunity. One wonders how much time he has left to prove himself.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Similar to how Carson Smith’s big positive in 2017 was getting back out on a major league mound, Johnson’s huge step forward was getting back to competing at a high-level after having dealt with all the physical injuries and mental health concerns I mentioned above. He made 23 starts, totaling 120 innings last year: one at Low-A, 17 at Triple-A, and five with the big league club. That is pretty solid output from a guy whose career was not certain to continue a year ago.

It’s important to note that he didn’t just take the ball 23 times and muddle his way through starts. He often pitched well: in his 17 starts for Pawtucket, he posted a 3.18 RA9. His 4.19 FIP suggests he had some help in posting that nice runs-allowed number, but that is to be expected from a pitcher of Johnson’s ilk. He does not overpower batters. His fastball sits in the high 80s, and at the Triple-A/Major League levels, he has a 19.3 strikeout rate, which places him in the bottom third of the leaderboards. As such, he relies on his defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. This was evident when he got to pitch in front of Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. on May 27th at Fenway Park.

Mookie keeping Nelson Cruz in the yard:

Jackie robbing Cruz of a hit:

Johnson’s complete game shutout in May was just the sixth such outing at Fenway Park in the last five years. Interestingly, while I pointed out Johnson’s reliance on his defenders, he recorded eight strikeouts that day; a total he has reached or exceeded only nine other times in his 103 career starts at any professional level. It was a special day, and certainly a high point in Johnson’s career to date.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Unfortunately, other than that outing against the Mariners, Johnson was not very good for the Red Sox in 2017. Take it out of the equation and you find his other starts amounted to a 6.50 RA9 (6.66 FIP). That is a long way from the strong showings he had at Triple-A. Pitching in the majors is a big jump from the minors and a pitcher who relies on strict control and allowing contact can run into problems quickly against big league hitters.

Johnson’s other issue in 2017 was more injuries and bad luck. The injury problem was to his shoulder, which is never a good thing for a pitcher. He was forced to leave his start against the Phillies after just 2.2 innings due to shoulder discomfort, and things were already not going well: four hits, one walk, and three runs, including a home run. The discomfort was eventually diagnosed as a shoulder impingement and resulted in another trip to the disabled list for Johnson.

After working his way back with a month of solid performances for the PawSox, he was hit on the leg by a batted ball in his August 16th start and forced to leave after just one perfect inning. He made his next start (and two more, pitching well in two of the three), so ultimately, the injury was not serious. Just another example of the sort of bad luck that seems to follow Johnson around.

WHAT TO EXPECT

On another team, Johnson might be slotted into the 4th/5th spot in the rotation, but on the Red Sox, there is no room for him. Even if a spot opens up due to injury, it is not certain that Johnson will be the guy who is called on. He will be competing with Roenis Elias, Hector Velazquez, Jalen Beeks, and maybe even Steven Wright for the chance. As such, Johnson will head into 2018 in much the same way he has started the last few seasons: just on the outside of the big league rotation. Barring a trade this offseason, Johnson will again spend the majority of the season pitching for Pawtucket, working to demonstrate that his crafty stuff can consistently get major league hitters out.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

• Offseason 2015: move Hanley Ramirez to first base? Sure, he will only play there for a season before David Ortiz retires, opening up the DH spot, and Travis is potentially major league ready.
• Offseason 2016: sign Mitch Moreland to a one-year deal rather than signing someone like Edwin Encarnacion to a longer deal? Sure, it is only for one season, it lets Hanley focus solely on hitting, and Travis’ timeline was delayed after he tore his ACL.

But now what? Does the front office stay this course and give Sam Travis the position on a full-time or part-time basis in 2018? Or do they shift from it and sign one of J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, or (my preference) Carlos Santana, effectively ending Travis’ shot at a role in Boston? Either way, Travis will soon have a clearer idea about his future with the organization.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

The primary positive for Travis was his finally getting the call to the big leagues. He hit really well for Pawtucket in May (.333/.389/.561 in 72 PA), earning his first opportunity with the Red Sox at the end of that month.

He carried his hot hitting in May with him to the big leagues – collecting five hits in his first 12 plate appearances – but cooled off once the calendar flipped to June, and never really regained that May form the rest of the way for Pawtucket or in his subsequent stints in Boston.

If you dig a little deeper into Travis’ performance you find the skill most likely to keep him in the big leagues for an extended period: hitting left-handed pitching. Against lefties in 2017, he slashed .314/.400/.505 at the Triple-A level (105 PA) and .381/.458/.500 in the majors (48 PA). Those aren’t exactly huge samples, but the results don’t deviate from what he has done against lefties at every level throughout his career. His ability to hit lefties opens up a fallback role for him as a right-handed bat off the bench.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Outside of May and against lefties, he didn’t really hit well. He finished the season with a .259 TAv at Pawtucket and a much worse .217 for the Red Sox. Being that he is a first baseman (and maybe a corner outfielder in a stretch) those rates are not going to play. He needs to hit better. Prospect gurus see him as a potentially above-average defender, but he still has to hit much better than he has in order to provide value.

The thing that really sticks out to me about Travis’ underwhelming hitting is that he hit just six home runs last year for Pawtucket and has never hit more than 10 in a season at any level.

All jokes aside on how he fit right in with the 2017 Red Sox, Travis’ lack of power is troubling; especially when it isn’t supplanted with way-above-average contact ability. His power problems in 2017 were not limited to lacking dingers, as he posted the lowest isolated power marks of his career. But I want to stick with the home run thing for another couple of sentences: he also had six home runs in 2016, but did so in just 190 PA, 150 fewer than he needed to get his six last year. Perhaps the knee injury that shortened his 2016 season sapped some of his power potential, or he needs more time to build strength in the knee. Regardless, Travis showing more power would be nice.

WHAT TO EXPECT

As noted at the top, Travis’ role with the Red Sox in 2018 (and beyond) depends on the moves the organization makes this offseason. The scoopers out there suggest that signing J.D. Martinez is all but a certainty. If true, Martinez and Hanley are the primary 1B/DH options, leaving Travis without a spot. I suppose in that situation Travis could take on a right-handed bench-bat role, but it seems unlikely that he would be used to hit for JDM or Hanley. There would also be considerable redundancy with Bryce Brentz, who seems to have the inside track on that job, so I don’t think a bench role like that fits for Travis. As such, it is more likely that Travis spends the majority of 2018 in the minors and/or is included in a trade.

Alternatively, if the team opts to stay away from the splashy signing of JDM and instead sign one of the second-tier left-handed-hitting first base options (e.g., Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Jay Bruce) then I can see a role with the Red Sox for Travis as the short-side of a first-base platoon. We know he can hit lefties, so that could be his primary gig. Regardless, it seems as though Travis’ future is going to be driven by whichever player the Red Sox bring in to start at first base.

Photo by Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports

Regardless of the exact root of Smith’s injury, it has limited him to only 10.2 major league innings in a Red Sox uniform: 2.2 in May, 2016, 6.2 in September, 2017, 1.1 in October, 2017 (postseason). As such, he is still something of a mystery for the 2018 roster. It is difficult to anticipate how any pitcher will respond to Tommy John Surgery; Smith is no exception. Will he regain his 2015 form? Can he maintain it for a whole season? Across multiple seasons? This last question can wait for now, but, even with the uncertainty that surrounds Smith, he is likely to enter the 2018 season as one of the Red Sox’s two primary setup men in front of Craig Kimbrel. That is an important role for a guy who hasn’t really played in two years.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

There is not a lot to say about a guy who didn’t play very much, but it is worth noting that in his few innings, Smith was solid. He allowed only one run, struck out a little over a quarter of the batters he faced, and generally had both of his pitches working.

But the important part of his 2017 is that he got back on the field. Over the last decade or so, the number of pitchers requiring Tommy John Surgery and the success rate of the surgery has pushed us to dismiss (or at least ignore) the difficulty involved in returning to pitch in the major leagues after the procedure. When news breaks that a guy is putting his elbow under the knife, we take for granted he will be gone from the team for 18-ish months and then return ready to go, maybe even throwing harder than before the surgery. I know I’m guilty of this, as there were many days on which I advised David Price from my couch to get the surgery ‘over with’. Over with? What a ridiculous thing to suggest. While the success rate is high, it is not a magical guarantee. The player has to work hard, physically and mentally, just to get back, let alone perform well. The good news is that Smith checked both of those boxes in 2017, which must give him confidence for 2018.

WHAT WENT WRONG

To pick a nit – and immediately descend from the high horse I climbed on in the previous section – it did take Smith longer than anticipated to get back on the field this year. This is not necessarily a bad thing. I am no proponent of rushing player’s back from injury, but his rehab taking longer than expected can be classified as something that went wrong for him last year. He had a setback or two during his recovery and missed the expected return of late July/early August by about six weeks.

I suppose it is worth mentioning that while Smith pitched well in his eight appearances during the regular season, his two appearances in the ALDS were less than stellar. In Game Two he relieved Drew Pomeranz in the bottom of the third, walked the first two batters he faced before Josh Reddick hit a 93mph rocket at Deven Marrero for the first out of the inning. That was the end of Smith’s day. In Game Three he got the ball in the ninth inning with the Red Sox leading 10-3. He gave up two singles (only one of which was hit well), but induced a double-play and struck out Carlos Correa to end the game. It was not a terrible outing, but it was not clean and definitely not the sort of thing you want to see from one of the team’s to-be premier relievers. But again, this is mostly picking a nit. I’m not really worried that his 1.1 postseason innings were imperfect.

WHAT TO EXPECT

It is pretty simple: to start the year, Smith will be slotted into a role at the backend of the bullpen. Along with Tyler Thornburg and Craig Kimbrel, Smith will form Alex Cora’s primary trio of high-leverage relievers. On paper that is formidable, but the question marks looming over Smith and Thornburg leave us in an uncomfortable wait-and-see situation. If Smith pitches well and Kimbrel needs to miss time, Smith could even grab the capital-C closer role – with the critical caveat that we don’t yet know how Cora will run the bullpen. I think it is also worth noting that this is the last year on Kimbrel’s contract. Kimbrel is an elite reliever, but I suspect the Red Sox will be hesitant to shell out what a then-31-year-old Kimbrel is going to demand in free agency. So with a strong 2018 season, Smith can push himself further along the inside track to the spotlight and money that come with finishing games for the Boston Red Sox.

Photo by Patrick McDermott – USA TODAY Sports

After Porcello dropped a 3.15 ERA, 223 innings, 5.8 WARP, Cy-Young-winning season in 2016, it seemed like he had finally harnessed his potential, and would be a guy who could provide a strong bridge to the back of the rotation. Turns out we jumped the gun on that. Porcello followed up his Cy Young season with a replacement level 2017 – by BP’s WARP anyway; FanGraphs’ version of WAR saw him as average. But regardless of the measure, 2016 stands out pretty clearly as the oddity in Porcello’s career to date. It is great that he showed that level of pitching, but it is unlikely he recreates the heights of 2016. Ideally, he can find a comfortable place somewhere between his 2016 and 2017 seasons in 2018.

What Went Right

There is not a lot to choose from here. I think the best thing that can be said about last season for Porcello is that he took the ball every fifth day. He made 33 starts, racking up 203.1 innings, which put him over the 200 inning threshold for the third time in the last four seasons. While Porcello was not lights out in his innings, consistently eating innings does provide value. It keeps the team from asking Henry Owens to take a break from walking minor league batters to instead come and walk some major league batters. It is better to have Porcello out there. The gap between Porcello and a go-between minor leaguer might be shrinking, but Porcello remains the better option.

Throwing 200 innings is great, but if the last bunch happen while overly fatigued, it could portend bad things (i.e., injury) for the following season. As far as I can tell this was not the case for Porcello. The velocity on all of his pitches held through the end of the season, and he was striking batters out at the same rate in the second half (22.0 percent) as he did in the first (22.8 percent). Porcello’s ongoing standing as a durable starter did not take a hit in 2017, but it would be nice if was more than just that.

What Went Wrong

Porcello struck out a lot of batters in 2017, but when he didn’t miss bats he got hit hard. Oh boy, the hard contact. He is on the wrong end of many categories on the 2017 Statcast leaderboard (minimum 190 batted ball events). He tied for the 19th highest average exit velocity, had 230 batted balls of 95 mph+ (third most, 41st highest percentage of batted balls), tied for the 20th highest rate of Barrels per batted ball, and on and on.

Porcello’s problems with the home run stood out; he allowed 38 (i.e, more than one per start). That is simply bad. Of course, we must point out that the ball was juicier in 2017 relative to previous seasons, and that might explain some of Porcello’s issues with home runs and hard contact last season, but it wasn’t just juiced for Porcello’s outings. Even if for some reason you ignore the 38 home runs he allowed from those Statcast measures, there remain 194 missiles to explain (for those checking my math: two of the homers he allowed had an EV below 95 mph; this one and the one below) . Simply put, he got hit hard last season, and harder than most.

One other noteworthy part of Porcello’s 2017 is his penchant for bad starts to his starts. He had a 7.09 RA9 in the first inning, which was more than two runs worse than his average performance in each of the next five innings, and almost a half run worse than his seventh innings. By rule, he is forced to face the top of the opponents’ order in the first inning, which usually involves stronger hitters, and this is not necessarily true for any other inning. This could explain poorer performance in the first inning, but the magnitude of Porcello’s trouble is alarming. His troubles actually lasted through his first trip through the order resulting in a reversed times through the order penalty last year, rendering the effect’s name temporarily incorrect. He was better his second time through the order and held that level the third time through. This is odd. Perhaps he needs to adjust his pre-game routine so as to be in a stronger position come first pitch. Alternatively, he should leave his routine alone, as this is most likely just a single-season oddity. It is certainly worth watching for in 2018.

What to Expect

Despite a mostly difficult 2017, Porcello’s spot in the rotation is not in doubt. He slots into the 4/5 hole behind Sale, Price, and Pomeranz. Expecting him to recreate his 2016 season is foolish, but he is better than what he showed in 2017. I think a reasonable baseline expectation is roughly 175 innings of average run prevention. If things bounce his way a few more times than they don’t – which of course depends on him limiting hard contact more than he did this past year – he could get in the 3-4 WARP range. His doing that would push the Red Sox’s rotation to the next level.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

There is no denying that his 2017 performance was down from 2016, but by BP’s WARP it was by less than half a win, so not really a drop that should have the team looking to cut bait. I will note that by FanGraphs WAR it was close to a two-win decrease in 2017 from 2016, which is certainly a more troubling account of how much worse 2017 was for Bogaerts. But even with the decrease considered, he was still a two-to-three-ish win player in 2017, and one who should be in the team’s plans for the next few seasons.

What Went Right in 2017

His first half. At the All-Star break, Bogaerts was hitting .303/.359/.447 with six home runs, and nine stolen bases (on ten tries). His strong performance over the first three-plus months made him a candidate for the American League All-Star team through the Final Vote, which was ultimately won by Mike Moustakas. Despite ending his streak for All Star game appearances at one, Bogaerts was showing that the above-average hitting he demonstrated in his standout 2016 and 2015 seasons was going to continue. Look at how free his swing looks on these two Father’s Day dingers against the Astros:

That is the sort of easy power for which Bogaerts has long been projected. Unfortunately a wrist injury, incurred right before the All-Star break, severely limited him from maintaining his strong hitting into the second half. More on that in the next section.

While his wrist hampered his hitting, there was nothing wrong with his legs. Bogaerts was the second-most productive baserunner on the team behind Mookie Betts, and seventh-best in all of baseball. He ended the season 15-for-16 in stolen base attempts, good for the third-best success rate among players with at least 15 tries. He adopted the team’s mandate for aggression on the basepaths, and while he made nine outs in doing so, he was still very effective in the approach.

What Went Wrong in 2017

Jacob Faria of the Rays is what went wrong. On July 6th, Faria lost a 1-2 pitch inside, hit Bogaerts on the right wrist, and entirely disrupted his season. After posting a tremendous first half at the plate, Bogaerts was pretty miserable in the second half: .235/.324/.347. A .347 slugging percentage? That is junk. Without two healthy arms, his power was just sapped. What’s more is the injury seemed to change his approach. He was much more patient in the second half, lowering his swing percentage by almost four points. That is not necessarily a bad thing. For example, his walk rate jumped close to four percentage points, which is great. But I wonder if swinging (and making contact) hurt him enough, or he didn’t trust his wrist enough, that he just didn’t want to do it as often. Alternatively, this is a reasonable change between halves of a season and I should be careful attributing too much to the injury. Regardless, watching him get into bad counts after watching hittable pitches go by early in his plate appearances and then flailing at breaking balls off the plate was frustrating for fans, and I am sure it was for Bogaerts too.

The other main down spot for Bogaerts last year, and throughout his career, was his defense. It is difficult to know exactly what to make of Bogaerts as a defender. By fielding runs above average (FRAA) and defensive runs saved (DRS), Boagerts rated as an awful defender. His -11 DRS was the worst mark among qualified shortstops, and his -9.4 FRAA was fifth-worst (among those with at least 350 plate appearances). But then ultimate zone rating (UZR) had him as more of a middle of the pack shortstop. Watching Bogaerts night-in and night-out I didn’t get the sense that he was a hacker out there, but I am sure the same argument was raised in support of Mr. Jeter when metrics suggested he was a mess of a defender. I guess what matters is that, while they don’t agree entirely, all three public measures of defense had Bogaerts as a below average performer last year, so it seems safe to say defense was not a bright spot for him.

What to expect in 2018

Barring a huge shakeup this offseason, Bogaerts will be the Opening Day shortstop and slotted into a spot in the top half of the lineup. Ideally he is able to get his wrist healthy this offseason so that he can get back to smacking the ball all over the park as he was in the first half of this past season. Restored health and a new manager, who many anticipate will have a discernible effect on players like Bogaerts, should be a boon for Bogaerts’ development.

All-in-all, I think the primary issue surrounding Bogaerts is one of comparing him to expectations rather than appreciating what he has done. So far in his career he has been an average to slightly-above-average player (2-3 WARP) each season, which is great, but becomes not so great if lined up against expectations. People see him as a franchise guy who should be posting 4-7 WARP seasons with ease. So when he doesn’t do that, and has periods where he looks downright lost at the plate, the calls to move on from him get loud.

Honestly, that is silly. While he might not consistently reach the upper bounds of the expectations laid out for him, he has a high-floor and, this needs repeating, is just 25 years old. Those are undoubtedly good things to have in a shortstop.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

What Went Right in 2017

I will dig into a few details in a moment, but the number one positive in Nunez’s 2017 has to be getting traded from a team that was winning ~38 percent of its games and had no chance of making the playoffs to a first-place team that was on-pace for October play. What is that like for a player? One day you are coming to work with a mindset of playing out the string and the next you are in the midst of a race for the division-title. How do these guys flip that switch? Or are they ridiculously competitive enough that the difference isn’t really something they experience; they are just always grinding to win. In any case, Nunez flipped that switch if had to, and managed the transition well.

Nunez fit in well with the Red Sox’s lots-of-contact lineup, but he did it in a different way. Whereas most of the 2017 Red Sox hitters were patient, Nunez was up there swinging: he only worked six walks in his 173 PA. For a bit of perspective, Sam Travis matched Nunez’s six walks, but did so in 90 fewer trips to the dish. But don’t get too caught up in his walk total, Nunez’s lack of patience did not hurt his offense productivity. Lower the PA minimum to 170 and you’ll find the .305 TAv Nunez posted during his stint in Boston was the tenth-best mark in the AL last year. He had a different approach than many of the other guys in the lineup and it worked. When he saw a pitch to hit, he tended to take a hack, and often connected with authority. Another example of his productivity: in his time in Boston, he doubled up the home run total he posted with the Giants, taking eight balls out of the yard for the Red Sox. All told, Nunez was a treat at the plate. Mix his offense with his versatility on defense and speed on the bases, and it is easy to see why he quickly became a fan favorite.

What Went Wrong in 2017

We can talk about how despite offering versatility on defense, he wasn’t really a great defender at any of the spots he played, or how his aggressiveness on the base paths was often infuriating. Seriously, why do this? But the biggest downer of Nunez’s 2017 was the trouble with his knee that ended things early for him. The original (as far as I know) injury, a posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) sprain, happened in early September during a game against the Rays. It kept him out of the lineup for 13 games, but, despite being cleared to play, he aggravated the injury during his second plate appearance, barely able to run to first base. In order to be ready for the playoffs he then went through a similar period of rest and rehab as he did after the initial injury, but upon return the results were the same, only coming in his first plate appearance rather than his second:

Ideally, adequate time away from playing does the knee some good, and Nunez can be playing at full strength next year.

Outlook for 2018

Nunez is a free agent this offseason. The combination of his ability to play multiple positions, hit for power, and provide speed on the base paths, as well as the haze surrounding Pedroia’s status for 2018, should make signing Nunez one of the top higher priorities in the offseason plan. However, all those assets that make him a good fit for the Red Sox likely means he can find a better situation elsewhere, such as one where Nunez does not need to worry about a franchise player returning after two months to reclaim his job, relegating Nunez to a bench role. A player like Eduardo Nunez should be able to find a stable starting job somewhere in the league, which will certainly be more attractive than the utility/10th-man role he would ultimately have in Boston.

Of course, everything with Nunez hinges on the condition of his knee. Nunez and the Red Sox medical staff twice deemed his knee healthy enough to play, but both times he ended up in a crumpled heap along the first base line. That is concerning. But the Red Sox are the team most likely to have up-to-date information on Nunez’s knee. If they think he can be back healthy – without rushing him to do so – then I would love to see him back in a Red Sox uniform. But, as I said above, if he is fully healthy, I think he will end up signing somewhere else. Let the Marco Hernandez era begin!

Photo by Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports

All Game Sevens are exciting events, not just those in the World Series. We just saw a Game Seven in the ALCS and it did not in any way reduce excitement for last night’s game – although the cumulative effect may have taken a year-or-two off of Astros’ fans lifespans. Of note for Red Sox fans, which I presume most of you reading this are, is that the Red Sox have been involved in many of the Game Sevens in baseball history.

According to data on The Baseball Gauge the Red Sox have played in 9 of the 55 deciding* Game Sevens that have happened since 1903, which is third most:

It probably doesn’t come as a surprise that the franchises with many Game Sevens in their history have (a) been in existence for a long time, and (b) typically put competitive, playoff-caliber teams on the field. Last night’s finale of the 2017 World Series was the third Game Seven for the Houston Astros franchise and the Los Angeles version of the Dodgers franchise.

The Red Sox haven’t just ambled through their Game Sevens; they have been a part of some standout series enders.

The Red Sox haven’t just ambled through their Game Sevens; they have been a part of some standout series enders. Three of the their Game Sevens (2003 ALCS, 1946 WS, and 1975 WS) are among the top 11 Game Sevens as defined by total win probability added (WPA), everyone’s favourite stat-de-jour, which provides a sense of the frequency and magnitude of the back-and-forth swings in a game. Now, it is understandable if Red Sox fans don’t hold any of those three games in high esteem, as each ended in a crushing loss. I still cringe every time I see that damn Aaron Boone home run soaring into the New York night.

The Red Sox being on the wrong end of exciting series finales continues to their fourth (2008 ALCS) and fifth (1986 WS) most back-and-forth Game Sevens, which rank 22nd and 25th all time by the total WPA measure. This trend is driven mostly by the fact that Red Sox teams were on the wrong end of the majority of their Game Sevens, posting a 3-6 record. As it turns out, when the Red Sox won, the games were pretty one-sided. Just as they have three games in the top 11 by total WPA, they have three in the bottom 13 (2004 ALCS, 1986 ALCS, and 1967 WS), which include two of their three wins. While this is an interesting little note, I am certain players, coaches, staff, and fans would rather their team win an easy one than lose a back-and-forth exciting one. I doubt the Astros are any less happy today after winning fairly easily last night.

Last night’s Game Seven gave me the occasion to look into the Red Sox history in such contests. As we have seen, or perhaps already knew, it is not great. The Red Sox are really more of a Game Six franchise. They are 11-3 in Game Sixes since 1903. Carlton Fisk’s heroics in 1975 and Curt Schilling’s bloody sock in 2004 came in Game Sixes. But, yes of course, Bill Buckner’s error in 1986 came in a Game Six. Interestingly, only three of those 11 Game Six wins was a series clincher, so the Red Sox have shown they know how to force a Game Seven, but don’t have a solid grasp on how to win a Game Seven. Here’s hoping they have a chance to improve on their Game Seven record in 2018.

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* the 1903, 1912, 1919 and 1921 World Series each had eight games.

Photo by Thomas B. Shea – USA TODAY Sports

Will Chris Sale and David Price combine for at least 60 starts?

As you know, David Price spent most of the 2017 season working his way back-and-forth from an elbow-irritation. The injury limited him to just 11 starts, and in only seven of those did he throw more than five innings. Contrary to Price, Chris Sale was everything he was expected to be and more. He had an excellent, possible Cy-Young-worthy 2017, making 32 starts, of which at least 25 could be considered good outings. When healthy, these two are undoubtedly one of the best 1-2 rotation combinations in the game. Having them take the ball for more than a third of the team’s games is ideal. It means several important things, notably: (1) fewer starts being made by Triple-A/Quad-A guys (e.g., Hector Velasquez, Kyle Kendrick – remember all the commotion about him early in the year?), (2) easier days for the relief corps, as Price and Sale tend to provide six or more innings per outing, which means they are more likely to stay fresh throughout the season, and (3) the team can still win if a Price/Sale start coincides with a night in which the offense struggles, which will inevitably happen 20-30 nights per season.

If Price and Sale can be Price and Sale, or at least close to it for 60 combined starts, the Red Sox will have a strong foundation from which they can work. Add another strong season from Drew “Big Smooth” Pomeranz, and have 2016 Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello regain his Red Sox even-year mojo and you can see how the run prevention side of the team will continue to be a strength.

Will the offense hit over 185 home runs?

In 2017 the Red Sox won in spite of their offense, not because of it. This season, the team turned into a banjo-hitting outfit, who made a lot of contact but not much powerful contact. They had the third-lowest Isolated Power mark in the game. Their team total of 168 home runs was the fourth-lowest total in baseball. Their 11.0 HR/FB ratio was the second-worst. That string of ugly numbers is reminiscent of the lost seasons in 2014 and 2015.

There are a number of ways the offense, and specifically the power supply of the offense, can change for the better; health being the foremost. The status of Mookie Betts’ wrist, Xander Bogaerts’ hands/wrist, Hanley Ramirez’s newly repaired front shoulder, and Dustin Pedroia’s knee (if he plays next year) are all important. A full season of Rafael Devers at third base will almost certainly be better than the Marrero-Rutledge-Sandoval-Lin-Hernandez-Selsky law firm that nobody wants representing them.

And then there is the big ticket offseason question: will Dave Dombrowski make a bold move for a middle-of-the-order slugger? Probably, yes. He has shown repeatedly demonstrated that he is a guy who writes out a list of wants and then goes about crossing those things off. Slugger has to be on his list. But who? J.D. Martinez? Or maybe Carlos Santana? How about Eric Hosmer? The Red Sox would love to land either Giancarlo Stanton or Joey Votto, but at what cost? Salary only? Young, cost-controllable talent (not Andrew Benintendi, please!)? Regardless, the addition of a power hitter, improved health from a number of players, and some positive regression should have the offense back to an above-average level of performance. Something in the range of the late 2000s teams would be great.

Will the _____________ era be one characterized by sustained player development and forward thinking?

It seems like a foregone conclusion that Alex Cora’s name will fill the blank in that question. I remain surprised at how convinced people are that he will be an excellent manager, despite the complete lack of evidence. As I mentioned last week, I am not at all meaning to suggest that Cora will be a bad manager, rather I am saying that none of us have any idea of how well he will do. With that said, I will grant that Cora does seem like a better option than the other candidates that have been floating around for interviews.

Regardless of my thoughts on other people’s thoughts on managerial candidates, John Farrell’s time in Boston is done. Dombrowski was cagey as all get out about the firing, perhaps implying that Farrell’s termination seems to have been at least partly due to the underperformance of many of the team’s younger players. With this in mind, the new guy will have to connect with and get the most out of the young core (i.e., Mookie, Xander, Devers, Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr.). From this perspective, Cora being a younger, ex-major league position player makes him a good fit.

Managing in Boston is notoriously difficult. After Farrell was fired, much beloved ex-Red Sox manager Terry Francona recently noted “…that place is a little crazy.” So whoever gets hired has that to look forward to. Hopefully he can handle it, and guide the ship to another division crown.

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All told, there are plenty of reasons to expect the Red Sox to be better in 2018 than they were in 2017. They may not win 100 games and run away with the division, but they are absolutely built to be in contention. If they get 63 combined starts from Sale and Price, hit 192 home runs, and have a manager who consistently puts the players in advantageous situations, it is hard to imagine them not fighting for top spot in the division and another playoff berth. Sure, the Yankees are terrifying. and I acknowledge my outlook has something of a rosy hue to it. But with that standing, a few tweaks – most notably in the form of a quality bat – and the Red Sox will be expected to be really good. Maybe even capable of winning a playoff series or two, and if they’re feeling like champions, a third wouldn’t be bad at all.

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With all that in mind, I think we should recognize that Farrell was generally pretty decent at his job, especially when compared to others. Not great, but simply good. Everything that went wrong this year and in previous years was not directly Farrell’s fault, and won’t necessarily be corrected by hiring a new manager. Thinking otherwise is not productive. While Red Sox fans (and perhaps even the players, coaches and front office members) hope the next manager is better than Farrell, he could easily be worse. Dave Dombrowski needs to tread carefully as he hires his first manager. All of the blame that Farrell has soaked up the last few years will start to trickle into Dombrowski’s suite if the next manager stumbles.

The discussion about possible candidates for the Red Sox’s managerial vacancy are in full swing. After all, Farrell was fired a whole 24-hours ago. Things move fast. I am sure you have seen lists of names that people feel should be considered. You can even wager your hard earned cash dollars on who it will be. Of course you can. Maybe we should be monitoring Dombrowski’s bookie. Jokes aside, and at the risk of repeating parts of your Twitter feed, here are the names I have seen/heard as suggestions for the Red Sox’s job opening (in no particular order):

That’s 16 names, and I probably missed a name or two that has been floated out there. Interestingly, there appears to be consensus on a few names. As an example, spend an hour on Twitter and it will seem as though Alex Cora already has this job. People (including credible ones) are suggesting Cora is a perfect fit. That is strong. Of course he could be, but it is not at all clear to me what evidence is being used to support this idea. There are certainly nice things being said about Cora, and it is assumed that he embraces the analytical  side of in-game tactics given his time in Houston, but he only has one year of big league coaching experience and hasn’t had to deal with the media. Don’t get me wrong, I am not trying to make a case against Cora – I think he would be a fine manager – nor am I saying that years of major league managing experience and media training are critical attributes. I am just surprised by how quickly and confidently people have jumped to fit Cora for a(nother) Red Sox uniform. If I recall correctly, five years ago, John Farrell seemed like a such a perfect fit that actual major league talent was traded away to acquire him. Now he can’t leave town soon enough.

Five years ago, John Farrell seemed like a such a perfect fit that actual major league talent was traded away to acquire him. Now he can’t leave town soon enough.

Any candidate is going to have a difficult job to do in Boston. An obligatory mention of the tough media market goes here. After getting past the media everyday, the clubhouse has three hard-headed veterans in Dustin Pedroia, David Price, and Chris Sale, and a group of young players (i.e., Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.) who are expected to bounce back from underperformance on offense in 2017 and take on a more defined leadership role. The veterans can make life very hard for a new manager who does things in a way that goes against their preferences, and there is no way any more slippage in performance from the young core is going to be tolerated.

Of course, the young guys could bounce back for no other reason than natural regression, which might push them to be more vocal in the clubhouse and make the new manager look like a genius, so that is a perk. There is also the fact that the Red Sox are a team with money, being run by Dave Dombrowski. He will go get players he wants. Add a Jake Arrieta to the rotation, along with an extra helping of slugging to the lineup (e.g., J.D. Martinez, Carlos Santana, Joey Votto [swoooon]) and you have the makings of an upper-90s win total stew going, and a stronger chance at winning a postseason series or two – or three.

For me, the best candidate will be someone who is: (1) receptive to and implements analytically-driven strategies, (2) a strong and clear communicator, (3) able to work with and respects young players’ development, and (4) humble and admits mistakes. This set of characteristics likely rules out a few names from the table above (i.e., Ausmus, Matheny, Bowa, Gardenhire). But the reality is that none of us know much of anything about the managerial characteristics of most of the guys in the table above. We are just guessing and trying to convince ourselves that our personal preference will be better than Farrell. Chances are, barring another Bobby V-esque disaster, we will be going through a similar exercise again in three-to-five years.

Photo by Shanna Lockwood – USA TODAY Sports

Put this all together, and it is easy to see how 2017 appears like it will be the culmination of the Astros’ tear-down and rebuild, along with the fulfillment of Sports Illustrated’s 2014 prediction of them winning the World Series. Beating the Astros seems daunting. Given the Red Sox’s underdog status, it is worth considering how their style of play, namely aggressive baserunning, putting the ball in play, and strong defense particularly in the outfield, matches up against these daunting Astros.

Aggressive Baserunning

The Red Sox ran wild on the basepaths this year. A few weeks ago I expressed my concerns with their approach to baserunning, and not much has changed since. They attempted 137 stolen bases this year, seventh most in baseball. They took an extra base 43 percent of the time, tied for the third highest rate in baseball. They advanced on fly balls, passed balls and wild pitches 175 times, which was tied for the fourth most in baseball. Trying to take an extra base is of course a worthy effort, but there are costs, which is where my concerns entered the frame. Red Sox batters’ aggression on the bases resulted in 118 baserunning outs (81 Outs on the Bases [OOB], 31 caught stealing, six pickoffs). That total was the third-highest in baseball this year. By now I am sure you get the point: they tried to push bags and made a lot of outs doing so, ultimately leading to below average results (-3.5 BRR). The Astros were similarly aggressive on the bases, but I will leave that for now, and instead focus on how Houston fared in limiting opponents base running efforts.

The most obvious place to start is with the Astros’ control of the base stealing game. By the simplest measure, stolen base percentage, the Astros were miserable at holding runners. Their 88 SB%-allowed (116 attempts) was the worst in baseball and six percentage points ahead of the second worst White Sox. BP’s advanced catching metrics include Swipe Rate Above Average (SRAA), which attempts to account for things like pitchers’ times to the plate and quality of baserunners. By SRAA, among catchers with at least 2,000 pitches received, Evan Gattis and Brian McCann (Houston’s two primary catchers) were third and fifth worst. With this in mind, Red Sox runners should feel comfortable trying to steal a base, and this goes especially for late game pinch runners like Rajai Davis.

Stealing bases, while the most salient part of a team’s baserunning, is only one part. Advancing extra bases on balls to the outfield is another critical part. An example of just how important tagging up on a flyball can be happened in Game 7 of last year’s World Series. As noted, the Red Sox have been aggressive in trying to take extra bases, but against the Astros they should take greater caution. The Astros feature outfielders with strong arms. By both Fangraph’s ARM measure and Baseball Reference’s Total Zone Outfield Arm Runs Above Average, the Astros outfielders have the best group of arms among the teams remaining. George Springer, Josh Reddick, Derek Fisher, and Marwin Gonzalez each rated above average. I know Brian Butterfield wants the team to move away from being a station-to-station team, but giving up outs is not an ideal way to do so. I am interested in seeing if the Red Sox tone things down a bit in this series.

Making Contact

The Red Sox finished the season among the league leaders in Contact percentage, trailing only Houston and Cleveland for top spot. Much has been made about the Red Sox’s inability to hit home runs, or their general lack of power. Instead they were a group that strung hits and walks together to score runs and had strong plate appearances against the power pitchers of the league. The good news is that most of the Astros’ rotation includes pitchers who would be classified as power pitchers, at least by Baseball-Reference’s split definition. These are the types of pitchers against whom the Red Sox have fared well, relative to the rest of the league. In accordance with the power pitcher label, Astros hurlers tend to strike a lot of guys out – they finished third in baseball in strikeout rate – but as you know the Red Sox do not strike out very often. Something is going to give here.

We know that when the Red Sox put the ball in play it tends to stay in the yard. Putting the ball in play means the Houston defense will be tested and they were not exactly a strong group on defense:

Note: UZR is not available for catchers and I was not sure about how to combine Gonzalez’s infielding (generally bad) and outfielding (generally good) numbers.

The differences across metrics are difficult to reconcile, and because these numbers are based on a single season of data we are dealing with wide confidence intervals, but you can see this group lacked something on the defensive side of the game. Ideally the Red Sox’s put-it-in-play approach can take advantage of this.

Defense

While we lauded Red Sox batter’s ability to avoid strikeouts, the Astros were even better; two full percentage points better. They hit home runs, hit for power, and they run. Simply put, the Astros’ offense is excellent. This means the Red Sox’s defense will need to be on point. There were times this season when the Red Sox struggled defensively and it lead to frustrating games. However, in the end they finished as a top three defensive group by DRS and UZR. Here is a table for Red Sox’s defenders similar to the one I gave above for the Astros:

Mookie’s numbers are just silly. BP sees Jackie Bradley’s defense as below average, which is surprising, but otherwise things are in line with what I expected and you can see this was a strong defensive group. They can go and get it, which should help tamp down the Astros lineup that puts the ball in play, and give Red Sox pitchers confidence that they can attack within the strike zone.

All told, it seems like the Red Sox’s style of aggressive baserunning, hitting for contact, and playing strong defense line up well against this Astros team. That is not a startling revelation, as for the most part those things line-up well against any team and that is why the Red Sox won their division. Nevertheless, I understand how the Red Sox come into the series as the underdog. The Astros are an excellent baseball team. But the Red Sox are at least a really good one, and the differences between these teams are not that large in a best-of-five series. Especially when the Red Sox can send Chris Sale to the mound for two of the five games (if necessary). On his own, Sale is as important as any other factor on this Red Sox team this postseason. Getting a solid outing from him tonight and taking Game 1 is critical for the Red Sox’s chances of winning the series. I will certainly be watching the aspects of the Red Sox’s style I outlined above, but mostly I’m just excited for the series to be underway.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports