We all know that Moreland has been playing well and the desire to get him more playing time certainly factored into the decision to designate Hanley Ramirez for assignment on May 25th. What is shocking is just how good Moreland has been when you look at his numbers. Moreland is leading all American League first basemen with a .313 True Average while slashing .292/.355/.606. If you’re curious, that .606 slugging percentage is the best in the entire league among first basemen. Moreland has done this while being an above average defender at the position, placing him second in the AL in WARP at 0.83.

The only player ahead of Moreland in WARP is Jose Abreu, who is in the midst of another typical Abreu-like season with a WARP of 0.86. Since Ramirez was just recently designated for assignment, and received ample playing time before said transaction, Moreland had only appeared in 43 games this year, while Abreu has played in 54. Despite playing fewer games, they both have nine home runs on the season, and Abreu has just three more RBI, with 31. Moreland has been more effective on a game-by-game basis, has played better defense, and his .403 wOBA is clearly ahead of Abreu’s mark of .373. With Miguel Cabrera and Justin Smoak having down years, and Edwin Encarnacion only playing seven games at first base, the vote will surely come down to these two.

Like it or not, the fans have the vote in the All-Star game, and the Red Sox, by holding the best record in baseball, have drawn far more attention than the second-to-worst record amassed by the White Sox. It’s a little harsh to say, but few fans care about the White Sox right now. Abreu is wasted on that team, and likely won’t get the support he deserves when it comes to the voting. Should Abreu be traded to a contending team before the All-Star break, this could change, however, as popularity and success matter.

If Moreland does make the team it will be deserved, but it doesn’t mean he is anything close to the best first baseman in baseball. The National League side features Freedie Freeman, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt, Eric Hosmer, and Cody Bellinger, just to name a few. There are going to be some very deserving first basemen that don’t even make that roster as a reserve. By TAv, Moreland is behind Belt, Freeman, and Jesus Aguilar, and ahead of Goldy, Rizzo, Votto, and the rest. If he makes the team as a starter, this will not be a Brock Holt: 2015 All-Star situation.

The Statcast numbers back up what Moreland has been achieving this year, and show some real meaningful change. His average exit velocity is 93.6 mph, which is far and away better than his previous best of 91.4 mph in 2015, and up significantly from 89.1 mph last year. Moreland is making harder contact more frequently than ever before, posting a 53.3 percent hard-hit rate and a career-best barrels percentage at 13.3. Much of this has come from Moreland pulling the ball more than ever, at 49.5 percent of the time — up from 37.2 percent last season. Can he keep this up? Who knows? What we do know is that Moreland is swinging at more pitches in the zone than ever before at 72.5 percent, and is doing damage on those pitches.

His two-year, 13-million-dollar deal is looking more and more like a bargain, and an excellent investment on the part of Dave Dombrowski. This contract is a welcome departure from Pablo Sandoval, Ramirez, and Rusney Castillo, and for a deal that was largely panned coming into the season, Mitch Moreland has gone so far beyond anyone’s wildest expectations.

Header photo by Brian Fluharty — USA TODAY Sports

Price has always been a remarkably durable pitcher as well, which was another reason the team didn’t hesitate to sign him entering his 30s. From 2012 to 2016, his first year with the Red Sox, he led all starters with 1096.1 IP. While his ERA suffered a bit in his first year with the Red Sox (due to allowing a career high 30 home runs), the underlying numbers were still elite, and his pitch mix looked consistent with a successful David Price. A 3.99 ERA wasn’t ideal, but coupled with elite ratios and a league leading 230 IP, there was no reason to be anything but optimistic. Then 2017 happened.

The year started off poorly from the jump, with forearm soreness in March becoming an elbow strain by April. After returning from the DL, Price was not himself. He hit the DL again with elbow inflammation in late July. Red Sox fans and the team feared the worst — Tommy John surgery. MRIs came back clean on Price’s elbow, and he returned to pitch an electric postseason as a reliever. Optimism was abound entering 2018, but if you looked closer about how Price had been using his pitches in 2017 and 2018, maybe we should have known better. 

From 2012 to 2016, Price had a repertoire which was roughly 70 percent fastballs — a variation of sinkers, cutters, and four-seamers. Price also threw his curveball about 10 percent of the time while mixing in his changeup for the remaining 20 percent. Over those years, the fastball variations had dipped in usage along with the curveball and the changeup gaining usage, but even still all those pitches were being thrown with regularity. Since 2017, the fastball usage rose to about 80 percent, with the curveball and changeup seeing reduced usage. So far in 2018, Price has used his changeup just three percent of the time and is throwing his changeup 17 percent of the time. Price has essentially become a pitcher without a breaking offering.

Can Price succeed like this? Yeah, it’s very possible that he can, but it’s a lot more difficult to do so, because it makes him more predictable and he needs to have pinpoint command to make it work. He did so in his last outing against Baltimore throwing just one curveball. It’s also the opposite of what most pitchers do as they age and lose velocity. If you look at the Brooks Baseball page for Zack Greinke or Justin Verlander, you’ll see that most elite aging pitchers throw more breaking and off-speed pitches to account for diminished velocity and a slimmer margin for error on hard pitches. He is currently averaging about 91.5 mph on his hard pitches. Price is trying to defy this traditional wisdom and is not having success. As you can see, his DRA has risen drastically since he began throwing more hard pitches. Currently, he is not the pitcher the Red Sox thought they were getting.

After this year, Price has the opportunity to opt out and test the market. It’s no secret that he’s had an adversarial relationship with the Boston media, and has said his share of bizarre things. Price wants to be loved, but doesn’t seem to be able to get out of his own way when he speaks, or pitch well enough that what he says doesn’t matter. It will be a hard decision for Price to make, as he will need to consider what he’s worth on the market and how much his happiness is worth to him. If he continues pitching like he is, coupled with his diminished velocity, then he isn’t likely to find success. Price needs to throw his curveball more and increase his changeup usage if he wants a chance of proving to other teams he is still valuable. This is his only hope to leave Boston without having to have a very awkward conversation with a talk show host someday about why he walked away from all that money. If he doesn’t change and decides to stay, we are going to hate this contract more and more every year.       

Header photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Teams always end up using more starters than they anticipate — or maybe I should say we anticipate — and the 2017 Red Sox were no exception. Velazquez adapted quickly in Triple-A, posting even better numbers in Pawtucket than he had in the Mexican League, sporting a 2.21 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 102 IP. This effective performance was even more impressive because it came off of effectively zero rest. What do I mean by zero rest? After Velazquez was signed by the team in on February 18th, he got right back to throwing. Sounds normal, right? Wrong. He had continued pitching in Mexican Pacific Winter League and the Caribbean series all offseason, and had logged an astonishing 246.1 IP and 46 starts before even making it to spring training. The fact that he held his own was incredible.

Velazquez logged another 24.2 IP of work at the big league level with a four-inning shutout of the eventual World Series Champs on October 1st. It was a great season, albeit a tiring one for the new Red Sox pitcher.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Nothing really went wrong for Velazquez last year, unless you count the fact that he logged 373 IP between April of 2016 and October of 2017. That is a lot of bullets. It proves Velazquez is durable, but also this isn’t an ideal way to do things.

WHAT TO EXPECT

After Brian Johnson — who is out of options — it is likely that Velazquez will be the first starter summoned from Triple-A should an injury occur. It is not a given at this point that Steven Wright or Eduardo Rodriguez will be available to start the season, so Velazquez could see time immediately should he look good during spring training.

Let’s not get carried away, however, as Velazquez is a 29-year-old journeyman, not a prospect or a threat to develop into anything really intriguing. He throws a fastball/slider/changeup mix that is reliable, just not exciting. His fastball has below-average velocity, but it does generate ground balls. You can’t mistake his offspeed or breaking offerings for wipeout pitches, but they are acceptable pitches for what they are. You can expect that Velazquez will come in, be durable, and keep the ball low in the zone. Essentially, he will give the team a chance to win when he’s in the game. This is all you can ask for the 7th or 8th option in the rotation, and Dombrowski paid very little to get him.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Swihart had sky-high value at this time and was considered untouchable by many when it came to trade talks. Young catchers who could play the position defensively and could hit for average and pop were not a common commodity, and they still aren’t. At BP, we published three scouting reports on Swihart between August of 2013 and May of 2015. These reports were glowing. Scouts raved about his 60-grade FV glove and arm, as well as his 55-grade FV hit tool. Our own fantasy prospect guru Bret Sayre called him a “lock to stick at catcher long term and hit for a strong average” and ranked him the 31st-best fantasy prospect in baseball. He was Buster Posey-lite, with his potential impact being compared to good Jonathan Lucroy.

A lot can change in a little over 1000 days. For Swihart, his position has changed and then changed back again. His health has changed for the worse and is now close to his old form. His value has also changed. Swihart is no longer talked about as a sought after trade chip, but rather as a player fighting for his baseball life in Boston.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

If you haven’t seen the catastrophic video of Swihart’s ankle injury, consider yourself lucky and do not look it up. On June 4th, 2016 — while playing in left field of all places — Swihart severely sprained his ankle after running into the side wall at Fenway Park. The rest is history: he underwent surgery on August 15th and worked his way back to health by last spring. The positive news was evident, and Swihart was strong enough to battle for a spot on the team during spring training of this past year. Let’s agree not to rehash the poor decision to play him there in the first place.

WHAT WENT WRONG

It was probably a forgone conclusion that the just-recently-healthy catcher who had been moved around the diamond the year before would not be the favorite to make it out of camp as the backup catcher. So what though? He was healthy. That was what mattered. As the year wore on, he played at Triple-A, returning to catching part-time until it became evident that his ankle was still not right. He struggled at the plate and needed a DL stint to get his body right. It was in large part a lost year — the second such year in a row for the player. He was called up in September and played just 12 innings behind the dish. By this time many folks were doubting if he would ever be relevant again.

WHAT TO EXPECT

In many ways 2018 will be a make or break year for Swihart’s future as a member of the Red Sox. He is now as healthy as he has been since his injury initially occurred, which will be key as he battles to make the roster this spring. You see, Swihart is out of options. He either makes the team out of camp or he is on a different team. Luckily for Swihart and the Red Sox, things are finally starting to break right for the former prospect. This winter he was healthy enough to play in the Dominican Winter League, where he batted .407/.515/.481 over 33 PA while catching for the Leones del Escogido.

If I were Dave Dombrowski, I would take a long look at Swihart and try and find any reason at all to have him on the bench to start the year. Swihart has pedigree, he’s only 26 years old, and he’s actually healthy! He still has the most offensive upside out of all of the Red Sox catchers and he’s athletic enough to play other positions. The bat is what should be the selling point though. His offensive upside is far greater than that of Brock Holt, Devin Marrero, and Sandy Leon, who he is potentially competing against for a roster spot. I have long defended Swihart, and now see him as more underrated than ever. I don’t doubt that we haven’t seen his best yet as a player. If I were DD, I’d want to make sure that we do see his best in the future, and that it’s while he’s wearing a Red Sox uniform.

Photo by Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports

While it may not have been as bad as his infamous 2015 season, the 2017 campaign was not kind to Hanley Ramirez. In the first season since the retirement of David Ortiz, the duty of DH fell to Ramirez. In 2016, Ramirez looked every bit like a player that could step in and give you 80 percent of Ortiz’s thump. The team was relying on Ramirez’s right handed power to carry the offense in the absence of the legendary number 34 — but he did not deliver. Poor performance vs left handed pitching and another injury to his shoulder made it a season to forget.

As we look to 2018, there are as many reasons to think Hanley won’t be on the team to start the year as reasons he will be. Along with his lack of production last year, Ramirez’s contract is another big factor that could keep him from having a roster spot come April. Ramirez is owed $22 million in 2018 with a vesting option for another $22 million in 2019 if he reaches 497 PA. The Red Sox may look to trade him and cover most of the money to free up that space for next year’s free agent bonanza. Conversely, the team could surely use his thump to compete in 2018 and if Ramirez can get back to his 2016 levels of production the team would have no issue paying him and allowing that option to vest.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

This is not the first time in his career that Ramirez’s shoulder has caused him issues, however, he still remained in the lineup for 133 games in 2017. Even while enduring the second worst season of his career Ramirez still provided power to the punch-less Red Sox lineup. He posted an ISO of .188 while clubbing 23 home runs and 24 doubles. He ranked sixth on the team in ISO, second in HR, and fifth in doubles. This is probably more of an indictment on the Red Sox offense than a celebration of Ramirez, however, even performing at a low level, he was still a somewhat useful player.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Going into last season, there was an expectation that Hanley Ramirez would play first base vs lefties, whom he has crushed to the tune of .295 average over the course of his career. In 2016, he was even more amazing than usual, hitting .346 with a .331 ISO against southpaws. Early in the year, it was made apparent that his shoulder injury would not allow him to play the field, and after starting 133 games at first in 2016, he started just 17 last season. Moreover, Ramirez couldn’t hit lefties when he was playing first base or DH — he batted a career-low .179 against them. His overall slash line for the year was a disappointing .242/.320/.429 — far less than was expected and needed. Overall, Ramirez was worth -0.4 fWAR and -0.1 WARP with a .253 TAv, which is just one point better than his .252 mark from 2015.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Ramirez’s struggles in 2017 can either be seen as a blip on the radar, or a harbinger of more terrible play in 2018. Through three years in a Red Sox uniform, we have seen two terrible versions of Ramirez and one very good version. If he can come back from his offseason shoulder procedure healthy, then it would be reasonable to expect the 34-year-old veteran to bounce back. Heck, it might even be reasonable to expect him to play first base on occasion considering he only made four errors at the position in 2016. This takes a considerable amount of optimism for a player whose health and effort level have been worth questioning over his career. But I don’t see the glass half full.

If you’re a half empty person like myself, you look at his age, chronic shoulder issues, and his declining Z-contact rate (which was a career low 85.8% last season) as sure markers of decline. Dombrowski has recently made one thing clear — he won’t be comfortable with Ramirez as his primary first base option. Signing Mitch Moreland provides the team with a defensively capable anchor in the corner. Having a reliable glove is of the utmost importance to a team with a young and error prone left side of the infield. It makes the most sense for the team to sign J.D. Martinez and let another team gamble on a Ramirez bounce back. The team has far too much riding on 2018 to risk such an important spot in the lineup on Ramirez at this point in his career, and should pay someone else to make sure they do not have to worry about his contract in 2019.

Photo by Bob DeChiara — USA TODAY Sports

This past season was certainly a difficult one for Holt on and off the field. The beloved bench bat, who has dealt with concussion issues over the years, missed time from late April until mid-July dealing with vertigo. There were times last year when I remember wondering if he would ever even play baseball again. As scary as that thought was for us fans, I imagine it was devastating for him. When Holt did return, he played his usual myriad of positions, but did so at the lowest level of his career. As we look to the 2018 season, there is a real argument to be made that the team would be better off without Holt.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

After getting back to the field on July 16th Holt didn’t miss any time for the remainder of the season. Just being able to stick with the team and not have to leave due to recurring vertigo was a victory for the player and the team. Oh, and the hair and smile were good all year.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Let’s begin with his batting line for the season. Over 64 games and 164 PA, Holt slashed .200/.305/.243 with zero home runs and just seven RBI. He was completely inept at the plate the entire season in a way that he had never shown us before. His .214 TAv was by far the lowest mark of his career, and overall, Holt was a detriment to the team offensively. Though he was once one of the strangest All-Stars in recent memory, Holt has never really created plus value with his bat. His offense has always been predicated on making contact.

The fact that John Farrell could trust Holt to play nearly every position on the field has always been his most valuable attribute. You knew you were going to get league average or worse offense, but there was little chance he would make a play that would kill you in the field. Holt wasn’t great, but simply solid all around the infield and in the corners of the outfield. After providing 6.7 FRAA in 2016 that number slipped to just 1.1 in 2017. The overall result was a player that was worth -0.2 WARP or -0.9 fWAR depending on which calculation you like best. Either way, negative WAR is not a good look.

WHAT TO EXPECT

I mentioned at the beginning how much his smile was worth and the Red Sox would be smart to move on from Brock Holt if they can find a trade partner. As the team looks at its potential bench for 2018, there are several more appealing options. Devin Marrero is a far superior defender in the infield and is out of options. Bryce Brentz, who was recently added to the 40-man roster, is a much better offensive player than Holt and is also out of options. Since the Red Sox have three guys who can play center field Brentz’s poor defense is no issue here. Sandy Leon, as long as he remains with the team, will take up a bench spot.

Perhaps the most interesting player who could replace Holt is Blake Swihart, who had .997 OPS in Dominican winter league ball. He is out of options and could surely be used all around the infield and in the outfield, although if I see him in the outfield again I might cry. The team could decide to try and shop one of the other players mentioned in order to get Sam Travis on the team. Travis, who mashes lefties, could make for an intriguing platoon partner for Mitch Moreland. All of this is to say that Holt might be too expensive and not good enough with either the glove or bat to warrant a spot on the team in 2018. It’s been a fun ride, but for the club and player, it’s probably time to get off.

Photo by Patrick McDermott — USA TODAY Sports

You can subscribe to our podcast on iTunes and Stitcher as well as listen to us on Blog Talk Radio, and all ratings and reviews are welcome. Enjoy!

Episode 57: The Red Seat is Moving!
- Guests: Bryan Joiner & Matt Collins

Episode 56: Cora In, Pedroia Out
- Guest: Brett Cowett

Episode 55: Farewell to Farrell
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 54: Down, But Not Out!
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 53: Red Sox vs. Astros Preview w/Ben Lindbergh
- Guests: Bryan Joiner & Ben Lindbergh

Episode 52: David Price to the Bullpen
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 51: The Great Home Run Debate
- Guests: Brett Cowett & Bryan Joiner

Episode 50: Halfway to 100 w/Alex Speier
- Guests: Matt Kory & Alex Speier

Episode 49: Talking Sox with Joon Lee
- Guests: Bryan Joiner & Joon Lee

Episode 48: Turning Point!
- Guests: Brett Cowett

Episode 47: Dissecting The Price Situation w/Evan Drellich
- Guests: Bryan Joiner & Evan Drellich

Episode 46: Miguel Cabrera to the Red Sox?
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 45: Who’s At Third?
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 44: Is Tzu-Wei Lin Enough At Third Base?
- Guest: Brett Cowett

Episode 43: The State of the Farm w/Chris Hatfield
- Guests: Matt Kory and Chris Hatfield

Episode 42: Positive Regression Fairies
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 41: Healthy Rotation At Last!
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 40: The Quarter Pole Check-In
- Guest: Brett Cowett

Episode 39: John Farrell – Master Bullpen Manager?
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 38: Wright is Wrong and Smooth Sale-ing
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 37: The Slide and The Retaliation
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 36: Talking to Jen McCaffrey of MassLive
- Guests: Brett Cowett and Jen McCaffrey

Episode 35: Year of the Flu!
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 34: Evan Drellich Talks Injuries
- Guests: Bryan Joiner and Evan Drellich

Episode 33: Red Sox Predictions!
- Guest: Brett Cowett

Episode 32: Spring Training Chatter with Brian MacPherson
- Guests: Bryan Joiner and Brian MacPherson

Episode 31: Talking David Price and the WBC
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 30: The New Red Sox Top 10 Prospects
- Guests: Ben Carsley and Jeff Paternostro

Episode 29: Emergency Chris Sale Podcast! 
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 28: Firing Up the Hot Stove
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 27: Season Wrap-Up Edition
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 26: Red Sox vs. Indians ALDS Breakdown
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 25: Big Papi vs. Teddy Ballgame
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 24: Hot Hot Hanley
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 23: Dissecting the Division (9/13)
– Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 22: Are the Red Sox Un-Clutch? (9/7)
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 21: Bullpen Implosions and Koji’s Return (8/30)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 20: First Place At Last! (8/24)
– Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 19: What If with A-Rod and Teixeira (8/9)
– Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 18: Trade Deadline Edition (8/2)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 17: Is Chris Sale for Sale? (7/26)
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 16: Paying for Drew Pomeranz (7/19)
– Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 15: David Ortiz’s All-Star Farewell (7/12)
– Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 14: All-Stars Aplenty (7/6)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 13: Fixing the Red Sox (6/28)
– Guests: Matt Kory and Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal

Episode 12: Moncada Moves Up, Buchholz Moves Back (6/21)
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 11: Groome-ing the Sox for Greatness (6/14)
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 10: Talking Trade Targets (6/7)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 9: Stop! Eddy Time (6/1)
– Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 8: Time To Go Streaking! (5/24)
– Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 7: Can’t Shake Those Birds (5/17)
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 6: Is Price All Right? (5/10)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 5: Surgery for Sandoval (5/3)
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 4: Is Porcello Breaking Out? (4/26)
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 3: Don’t Blake My Heart (4/19)
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 2: Real Baseball Has Begun (4/12/16)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 1: A New Hope for 2016 (4/5/16)
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Photo by Eric Molina

You can subscribe to our podcast on iTunes and Stitcher as well as listen to us on Blog Talk Radio, and all ratings and reviews are welcome. Enjoy!

Episode 56: Cora In, Pedroia Out
- Guest: Brett Cowett

Episode 55: Farewell to Farrell
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 54: Down, But Not Out!
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 53: Red Sox vs. Astros Preview w/Ben Lindbergh
- Guests: Bryan Joiner & Ben Lindbergh

Episode 52: David Price to the Bullpen
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 51: The Great Home Run Debate
- Guests: Brett Cowett & Bryan Joiner

Episode 50: Halfway to 100 w/Alex Speier
- Guests: Matt Kory & Alex Speier

Episode 49: Talking Sox with Joon Lee
- Guests: Bryan Joiner & Joon Lee

Episode 48: Turning Point!
- Guests: Brett Cowett

Episode 47: Dissecting The Price Situation w/Evan Drellich
- Guests: Bryan Joiner & Evan Drellich

Episode 46: Miguel Cabrera to the Red Sox?
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 45: Who’s At Third?
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 44: Is Tzu-Wei Lin Enough At Third Base?
- Guest: Brett Cowett

Episode 43: The State of the Farm w/Chris Hatfield
- Guests: Matt Kory and Chris Hatfield

Episode 42: Positive Regression Fairies
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 41: Healthy Rotation At Last!
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 40: The Quarter Pole Check-In
- Guest: Brett Cowett

Episode 39: John Farrell – Master Bullpen Manager?
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 38: Wright is Wrong and Smooth Sale-ing
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 37: The Slide and The Retaliation
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 36: Talking to Jen McCaffrey of MassLive
- Guests: Brett Cowett and Jen McCaffrey

Episode 35: Year of the Flu!
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 34: Evan Drellich Talks Injuries
- Guests: Bryan Joiner and Evan Drellich

Episode 33: Red Sox Predictions!
- Guest: Brett Cowett

Episode 32: Spring Training Chatter with Brian MacPherson
- Guests: Bryan Joiner and Brian MacPherson

Episode 31: Talking David Price and the WBC
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 30: The New Red Sox Top 10 Prospects
- Guests: Ben Carsley and Jeff Paternostro

Episode 29: Emergency Chris Sale Podcast! 
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 28: Firing Up the Hot Stove
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 27: Season Wrap-Up Edition
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 26: Red Sox vs. Indians ALDS Breakdown
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 25: Big Papi vs. Teddy Ballgame
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 24: Hot Hot Hanley
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 23: Dissecting the Division (9/13)
– Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 22: Are the Red Sox Un-Clutch? (9/7)
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 21: Bullpen Implosions and Koji’s Return (8/30)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 20: First Place At Last! (8/24)
– Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 19: What If with A-Rod and Teixeira (8/9)
– Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 18: Trade Deadline Edition (8/2)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 17: Is Chris Sale for Sale? (7/26)
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 16: Paying for Drew Pomeranz (7/19)
– Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 15: David Ortiz’s All-Star Farewell (7/12)
– Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 14: All-Stars Aplenty (7/6)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 13: Fixing the Red Sox (6/28)
– Guests: Matt Kory and Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal

Episode 12: Moncada Moves Up, Buchholz Moves Back (6/21)
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 11: Groome-ing the Sox for Greatness (6/14)
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 10: Talking Trade Targets (6/7)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 9: Stop! Eddy Time (6/1)
– Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 8: Time To Go Streaking! (5/24)
– Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 7: Can’t Shake Those Birds (5/17)
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 6: Is Price All Right? (5/10)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 5: Surgery for Sandoval (5/3)
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 4: Is Porcello Breaking Out? (4/26)
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 3: Don’t Blake My Heart (4/19)
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 2: Real Baseball Has Begun (4/12/16)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 1: A New Hope for 2016 (4/5/16)
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Photo by Eric Molina

That answer is simple – identify the best players available via free agency and trade and go get them. This is the Dave Dombrowski approach to the offseason, and it’s one that has generally worked well, netting him key members of the team like Chris Sale and David Price over the past two years.

The Red Sox made a big deal this year about staying under the luxury tax threshold of $195 million in order to reset the penalties that result when the team exceeds those limits. This has been done. Staying under the cap next year will derive the team no more added benefit other than the money that they would save in doing so. As it stands right now, Cot’s Contracts has the team’s estimated salary for 2018 at slightly over $202 million. The team would actively have to shed players in order to stay under the $197 million threshold for 2018.

This should not be a direction the team looks to go, since time is running out for this core. The 2018 season will be the last year for two of the team’s best pitchers in Drew Pomeranz and Craig Kimbrel, players he acquired via trade. There is also no guarantee that Price won’t opt out of his deal at the end of 2018 if he is healthy and pitching well, though admittedly this is the best scenario for both the team and the player. After the 2019 season, things start to get really bleak, Sale, Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello, and Tyler Thornburg will all become free agents. Say what you want about Porcello, but he eats innings, comes with modest upside, and is signed to a fair deal. Thornburg may yet even play baseball. Finally, after 2020 Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, and Carson Smith will all hit free agency, leaving the team with a core of Eduardo Rodriguez, Rafael Devers, and Andrew Benintendi.

It’s entirely possible – perhaps even probable – that the team gets extensions done with key members of the team like Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts but it’s far from a sure thing. Dombrowski sure isn’t going to bank on those things happening, nor should he. Everything he has done as president of baseball operations has been to optimize this current window, when he knows he has these players under contract during the prime of their careers. The most important seasons for this team are the next two years, while Sale remains under contract. Next year is especially significant because the team has relatively few holes in the rotation and bullpen, but could use an offensive boost at first base and designated hitter positions, both specifically mentioned by Dombrowski in his press conference following John Farrell’s firing.

Meanwhile, the American League has gotten a whole lot better. The Yankees were one win away from the World Series with an enviable core of young controllable players. They are also primed to exit next year’s off-season with Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Dallas Keuchel as new members of their team. You might laugh, but this has been Brian Cashman’s plan all along. The team even has the space this offseason to sign an ace like Yu Darvish while still staying under the luxury tax threshold, resetting themselves for their upcoming spending spree.

That’s just the in-division threat. The Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians aren’t going anywhere, with large parts of their 100-win teams locked up for the next few seasons. Maybe Dombrowski picked a terrible time to push his chips in, but he had no choice but to maximize the current roster. It won’t be easy getting past the Yankees, Astros, and Indians, but there’s no way around them. They need to go right through.

Maybe Dombrowski picked a terrible time to push his chips in, but he had no choice but to maximize the current roster.

Dombrowski needs to go out and do what he does best and sign J.D. Martinez. He can’t stop there though, he needs at least one more bat, so maybe Eric Hosmer, or perhaps Giancarlo Stanton. If it was up to me, I’d cut Hanley Ramirez, play Martinez at DH and sign Hosmer to play first. But why stop there? Dombo should sign a quality lefty reliever like Mike Minor or Jake McGee and then call it a day. Will he obliterate the luxury tax threshold by doing this? Yes, but so what? The Dodgers have had payrolls upward of $271 million over the last few years, and they’re in the World Series.

The bottom line is that when Dombrowski recognizes a need, he goes out and addresses that need. He doesn’t take any half measures; he addresses needs with full force. For a team that had a likability problem in 2017, changing managers was a great idea. Let’s give the new manager the tools he needs to succeed in 2018 and beyond. I think John Henry and the rest of the ownership group will find out that long playoff runs and lineups that can hit will make back any additional money spent on payroll. When the duck boats cruise past Government Center, the last thing we will all be thinking about is the luxury tax threshold.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

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Episode 55: Farewell to Farrell
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 54: Down, But Not Out!
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 53: Red Sox vs. Astros Preview w/Ben Lindbergh
- Guests: Bryan Joiner & Ben Lindbergh

Episode 52: David Price to the Bullpen
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 51: The Great Home Run Debate
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Episode 50: Halfway to 100 w/Alex Speier
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Episode 49: Talking Sox with Joon Lee
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Episode 48: Turning Point!
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Episode 47: Dissecting The Price Situation w/Evan Drellich
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Episode 46: Miguel Cabrera to the Red Sox?
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 45: Who’s At Third?
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 44: Is Tzu-Wei Lin Enough At Third Base?
- Guest: Brett Cowett

Episode 43: The State of the Farm w/Chris Hatfield
- Guests: Matt Kory and Chris Hatfield

Episode 42: Positive Regression Fairies
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 41: Healthy Rotation At Last!
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 40: The Quarter Pole Check-In
- Guest: Brett Cowett

Episode 39: John Farrell – Master Bullpen Manager?
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 38: Wright is Wrong and Smooth Sale-ing
- Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 37: The Slide and The Retaliation
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 36: Talking to Jen McCaffrey of MassLive
- Guests: Brett Cowett and Jen McCaffrey

Episode 35: Year of the Flu!
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 34: Evan Drellich Talks Injuries
- Guests: Bryan Joiner and Evan Drellich

Episode 33: Red Sox Predictions!
- Guest: Brett Cowett

Episode 32: Spring Training Chatter with Brian MacPherson
- Guests: Bryan Joiner and Brian MacPherson

Episode 31: Talking David Price and the WBC
- Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 30: The New Red Sox Top 10 Prospects
- Guests: Ben Carsley and Jeff Paternostro

Episode 29: Emergency Chris Sale Podcast! 
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 28: Firing Up the Hot Stove
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 27: Season Wrap-Up Edition
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Episode 26: Red Sox vs. Indians ALDS Breakdown
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 25: Big Papi vs. Teddy Ballgame
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Episode 24: Hot Hot Hanley
- Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 23: Dissecting the Division (9/13)
– Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 22: Are the Red Sox Un-Clutch? (9/7)
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 21: Bullpen Implosions and Koji’s Return (8/30)
– Guest: Matt Collins

Episode 20: First Place At Last! (8/24)
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Episode 19: What If with A-Rod and Teixeira (8/9)
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Episode 18: Trade Deadline Edition (8/2)
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Episode 17: Is Chris Sale for Sale? (7/26)
– Guest: Matt Kory

Episode 16: Paying for Drew Pomeranz (7/19)
– Guest: Ben Carsley

Episode 15: David Ortiz’s All-Star Farewell (7/12)
– Guest: Bryan Joiner

Episode 14: All-Stars Aplenty (7/6)
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Episode 13: Fixing the Red Sox (6/28)
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Episode 12: Moncada Moves Up, Buchholz Moves Back (6/21)
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Episode 11: Groome-ing the Sox for Greatness (6/14)
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Episode 10: Talking Trade Targets (6/7)
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Episode 9: Stop! Eddy Time (6/1)
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Episode 8: Time To Go Streaking! (5/24)
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Episode 7: Can’t Shake Those Birds (5/17)
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Episode 6: Is Price All Right? (5/10)
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Episode 5: Surgery for Sandoval (5/3)
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Episode 4: Is Porcello Breaking Out? (4/26)
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Episode 3: Don’t Blake My Heart (4/19)
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Episode 2: Real Baseball Has Begun (4/12/16)
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Episode 1: A New Hope for 2016 (4/5/16)
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Photo by Eric Molina