The Red Sox farm system has been emptied out over the last year-plus, but there are still some interesting prospects in the organization. Josh Ockimey isn’t going to headline any top-100 lists, but he’s shown some serious potential with the stick. The team’s fifth-round pick in 2014, he’s made steady progression since being drafted. He was disappointing in his first taste of pro ball the year he was drafted, but he hit much better in 2015 at Lowell. Then, in 2016, he put up good numbers in his first full season of pro ball. He’ll need everything to break right to become a big prospect, since he’s first base-only, but he’s on his way.

What Went Right in 2016

Ockimey’s best tool is his power, and that was on full display over the last season. As a 20-year-old in A-ball, he his 18 home runs and 25 doubles, good for a .199 ISO on the season. Obviously, minor-league numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, but it’s at least worth noting that Greenville’s home park plays neutral compared to the rest of the league. Additionally, according to Baseball America, the pitcher’s parks in the South Atlantic League tend to play more extreme than the hitters parks. All scouts agree Ockimey has plus-potential on his power tool, and he started showing that in 2016.

In addition to the power, the first baseman also showed off tremendous patience. Clearly, the Red Sox have always been an organization that values players who are willing to take a walk, and Ockimey fits that profile. After walking right around 11 percent in each of his first two pro seasons, he upped that already-impressive rate to a whopping 17.6 percent last year. It goes without saying that minor-league pitchers have worse than their major-league counterparts, but I should note exactly zero hitters in the bigs had a rate this high last year. Ockimey won’t keep this kind of rate up as he climbs through the ranks, but he has a ton of wiggle room between his current rate and an unacceptable one.

Finally, we have the success Ockimey showed off in his first month of the season. At the end of May, he had accrued exactly 200 plate appearances, and was hitting .308/.450/.566. Good things don’t last forever, but even having it in him to go on this kind of extended run is encouraging.

What Went Wrong in 2017

Well, the other side of the coin regarding his hot start is how he finished. After that May 31 cutoff, Ockimey fell way off, all the way to a .173/.311/.335 line. To make matters even worse, he got progressively worse in each month. The good thing is, it’s easily explained. We’re talking about a kid who came straight from high school and had never had a full workload of games. In his first full season, it’s not unreasonable to expect this kind of fatigue. If it happens again this year, then it’s reasonable to worry.

There’s also the matter of platoon splits. As a left-handed bat, Ockimey had a huge issue with southpaws on the mound. While he posted an impressive .831 OPS against righties, he whimpered to a dismal .600 OPS against lefties. To make matters worse, he had similar splits in 2015 with the Spinners, so he’ll need to make some major adjustments to kick this issue.

Finally, there is the strikeout rate. While Ockimey has tremendous patience and can work a lot of walks, he also works a lot of deep counts. That’s mostly a good thing, but when you combine that with a large amount of swing and miss it equals a ton of strikeouts. Last season, he struck out over 25 percent of the time, which to be fair is a huge improvement from his 34 percent rate in Lowell. Pitchers are only going to get harder moving up the ladder, so like the platoon splits, this is an issue that may not go away.

What To Expect in 2017

Ockimey heads into this season as the tenth-rated prospect in the organization by Baseball Prospectus, and has a chance to move up even higher. As a first base-only prospect, he needs to rely heavily on the bat, but there’s no reason he can’t. The power is legitimate, as is the patience, which is a great base on which to build. One should expect him to spend the entire season in Salem as he continues a steady but forceful progression through the system.

 [Editor’s note: This was Matt Collins’ final piece for BP Boston. Matt leaves us to take over managing editor duties at our buddy site, Over The Monster. Thanks for everything, Matt. I can’t believe it, but we’ll miss you.]

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

The Red Sox suffered from an inconsistent bullpen for much of 2016, with Craig Kimbrel mostly being backed up by good-but-not-great arms. One of those arms was Robbie Ross, the left-hander Boston received in return for Anthony Ranaudo a couple of years ago. When Ross was acquired, he was a swingman whose role and talent level was largely unknown. Since then, he’s stepped up and become the best left-handed reliever on the roster. Now, that probably says more about the roster than it says about Ross, but it’s also not at all a slight towards the southpaw’s performance. While he’s lumped in with the group of inconsistent arms in last season’s bullpen, he has been underratedly solid for two years in a row now.

What Went Right in 2016

A whole lot went right for Ross in 2016, which is how he ended up with a 3.25 ERA to go along with a 3.23 FIP, a 3.79 DRA (95 DRA-) and a 97 cFIP. That doesn’t indicate a dominant force, but it looks a lot like a pitcher who can comfortably be placed in the middle of a major-league bullpen.

Among the reasons for this relative success in 2016 was a significant rise in strikeouts. After spending most of his career with a strikeout rate in the high teens, Ross struck out 23.5 percent of his opponents last season. He backed that up with lower contact rates both in and out of the zone. This was likely the result of a change in repertoire that involved leaning much more heavily on his breaking balls and getting away from throwing his fastball 70 percent of the time.

Another side effect of this change in pitch mix is that Ross saw a lack of damaging batted balls coming off the bats of his opponents. The .302 BABIP he allowed is merely average, which is an improvement over the end of his Rangers career when he was allowing BABIPs in the mid-to-high .300s. Meanwhile, he also induced ground balls more than 50 percent of the time and served up just two home runs in his 55.1 innings.

Even beyond the tangible numbers, Ross was successful in a couple of other areas that often go underrated for a reliever. Many people see these bullpen arms as fungible assets that anyone can replace, but keeping your best relievers around all year can go a long way toward stability for a team. Ross was the master of both health and consistency in 2016. He was on the roster all year, appearing in 54 games to accrue those 55.1 innings. Beyond that, he didn’t have a calendar month in which he put up a FIP under 4.00. Now, there was a fairly significant ERA discrepancy, but that was based on sequencing more than anything. While his 4.71 ERA in the first half completely blew away his second half mark of 1.69, the peripherals actually favored the first half. Plus, his opponents performance was essentially the same throughout the year. Small samples can have strange effects on relievers, but for all intents and purposes Ross was the same guy all year and that shouldn’t go overlooked.

What Went Wrong in 2016

For as much praise as I’ve heaped on Ross so far in this, it wasn’t all roses. The main issue for the southpaw was his control. He’s never really been a control-oriented pitcher, but he had the worst walk rate of his career in 2016, allowing a free pass to just under 10 percent of his opponents. This could be another side effect of the repertoire change, as it goes without saying that fastballs are easier to get over the plate than breaking balls. It certainly showed up in his plate discipline stats, as it was the first season in which a majority of his pitches missed the zone.

What’s really strange is that the bulk of these control issues came against left-handed batters. While he struck out nearly a quarter of his left-handed opponents, he walked more than 13 percent of them as well. That’s an atrocious rate, particularly for someone who is supposed to be the best lefty in the bullpen. Again, being a top LOOGY option isn’t really what he’s built for, but it’s what the team could really use. At the very least, he needs to get his control under…well, control, against lefties.

What To Expect in 2017

Looking ahead to the coming season, I would expect nothing but the same from Ross. I’d expect him to be miscast as the best lefty in the bullpen, being flanked by guys like Fernando Abad, Robby Scott and Luis Ysla. In that role, he’ll keep up the strong combination of strikeouts and ground balls, disappointing delusional fans hoping for the next Andrew Miller. By now, though, he should be used to being underrated. If the bullpen falters again in 2017, he’ll keep getting thrown into the mix of underperforming arms, whether he deserves it or not.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

One of the biggest questions heading into 2016 for the Red Sox was whether or not Jackie Bradley would be able build upon his scorching finish to 2015. It seems like ages ago, but it really hasn’t been that long since the defensive wizard looked utterly lost against major-league pitching. At that point, his destiny appeared to be a bottom-of-the-lineup bat whose value came exclusively from the glove.

As such, this past year was a huge one for answering the question of just who exactly Bradley is. He was such a good hitter as an amateur and throughout the minors that it was easy to believe in how he ended 2015. Of course, looking at things realistically, there was plenty of reason to doubt he would continue to be even an average major-league hitter. To remember just how confusing he was, look no further than the “Outlook for 2016” section on last year’s installment of this series.

As we know now, things turned out A-OK.

What Went Right in 2016

We’ll start with the bat, that massive question mark last spring. It came through in a big way, as he finished the year with an impressive .273 TAv that put him in the same area of the leaderboard as Dustin Pedroia, Albert Pujols, Chris Davis and Jose Bautista. What was most impressive was the standout from his 2015 run, the power. Bradley finished the year with 26 home runs and a .219 ISO, a mark that tied Hanley Ramirez and Justin Upton. To make matters even more startling is that Bradley was able to show off such a power stroke to all fields. Per Fangraphs’ batted ball data, he had an ISO above .250 to all three fields. His pull stroke, unsurprisingly, stole the show, however. He finished the year with a 37 percent home run to fly ball ratio to right field. Part of that may be thanks to Fenway’s short dimensions down the line, but it’s not as if right field’s power alley is a haven for dingers.

Maybe even more important than the power outburst was Bradley’s plate discipline, and more specifically his strikeout rates. More than anything else, this is what has held the center fielder back during his struggles in the majors. Even when he was red hot in 2015, he was still striking out nearly 30 percent of the time. In 2016, he cut that rate all the way down to 22.5 percent. Now, it’s worth noting that his swinging strike rate is right around his career average, though it’s a large step in the right direction after 2015. He also swung at more pitches out of the zone than he did in 2015, and more than he averaged in his career. On the other hand, he had just one month with a K% over 25, showing a consistency that had been sorely lacking.

Then, there’s his first half of 2016. Oh, that first half. It was such a strong start to his season that this very writer pegged him as the team’s MVP in July. Mookie Betts proceeded to spit in the face of that claim, but that’s neither here nor there. Bradley hit .296/.378/.548 prior to the All-Star game. He recorded a 29-game hitting streak. Hot damn.

Finally, there’s the defense. Oh, that defense. It’s assumed at this point that he’ll be majestic out in center field, but don’t you ever take it for granted.

What Went Wrong in 2016

Really, there isn’t a whole lot to put in this category. One could note Bradley’s disappointing series in the ALDS in which he got one single and was hit by a pitch in 11 plate appearances. Then again, Cleveland’s pitching staff was on another planet this October and not only shut down the entire Red Sox lineup, but also proceeded to laugh in the face of the Blue Jays and Cubs. Tough to hold a three-game sample against Bradley in this case.

He did hit some rough stretches in the regular season, though. Specifically, his August was a mess. That was the one month in which he struck out at least a quarter of the time, and it was actually exactly a third of the time. That, combined with a .258 BABIP, led to an anemic .198 AVG. It certainly wasn’t enough to overshadow the rest of his season, but it’s another reminder that he’ll be prone to cold streaks throughout his career.

Outlook for 2017

While this section was very mysterious last year, I’m more confident in taking a bold stance this time around. I’m not entirely confident Bradley will be able to maintain his low (for him) strikeout rate in 2017, but I believe he can keep it under 30 percent by a safe margin. He’ll be able to draw enough walks and hit for enough power (another .200+ ISO season isn’t ridiculous to expect) to remain an above-average bat. On the other hand, expect another cold streak or three during the year, which hopefully won’t coincide with lineup-wide slumps. Bradley will never be a true superstar, but he’s shown enough to expect him to be an above-average regular, particularly with the baseline his glove provides. That should continue in 2017.

 Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

So much of the 2016 season was a success for the Red Sox, and much of that was due to comeback performances. You needn’t look any further than the first two installments of this series to get that idea. Sure, the young core taking a collective step forward and David Oritz being a god were big helps, but they couldn’t have done it on their own. Hanley Ramirez and Rick Porcello were both big, expensive question marks back in March, and they both came through in big ways. Then, there’s Pablo Sandoval.

This was a lost season if there ever was one, as he missed almost the entire season after losing out on the starting job anyway. Even despite missing essentially the whole year, he had one of the more embarrassing moments for any player in recent memory, which we’ll get to later. Even in such a positive season, I’ll always be here to remind you that life is pain. You’re welcome.

What Went Right in 2016

Well. Uh. Ummmm. Give me a second. *Scratches head and clears throat hoping you’ll walk away*

Sandoval drew a walk in one of his seven plate appearances, which is one more than his number of hits. Of course, it was against Arnold Leon, a pitcher who made two appearances in 2016. Sandoval also struck out three times in that game. Fun!

Remember when I mentioned him losing his starting job in the spring? Clearly, that’s not a positive, but he got through the situation without melting down through the media. We’ll call that a positive. Oh, and he also entered spring with the team complimenting his weight.

That’s literally it for this section. Good lord.

What Went Wrong in 2016

Lol.

There isn’t a big enough sample to really look at Sandoval’s numbers from this past season, but we’ll do it anyway. In seven plate appearances, he hit .000/.143/.000. That’s zero hits and the aforementioned walk. It is also a .089 TAv. This is very clearly not his true-talent baseline, but it is all we saw of him in regular season baseball and it was Bad.

If you want a bigger, yet still flawed, sample, we can look at spring. Since we already know he was benched in favor of Travis Shaw based on spring performances, it would’ve been a safe bet his Grapefruit League performance was bad. He hit .204/.231/.408 in 19 games. The .204 Isolated Power is nice, but the overall performance stunk.

Then, of course, there was the injury. He first hit the disabled list with his shoulder injury on April 13, and the rest of the month was filled with speculation about just how bad it was. There were second opinions and some people irresponsibly questioning legitimacy of the ailment. This was mixed in with his former trainer saying Sandoval needed to be “babysat” with his diet, which was a whole ‘nother can of worms. Then, by the time May rolled around, it was announced that he’d need surgery and would miss the rest of the year. Obviously, we can’t really blame Sandoval for this turn of events, but it’s a negative nonetheless.

Above all of these other negatives, though, we have this. I mean, come on. This is clearly just a freak accident, but it couldn’t have happened at a more inopportune time. That vine encapsulates Sandoval’s season — and his entire Red Sox career, to be honest — better than any words I can come up with.

Outlook for 2017

I’m not going to lie to you. I have no idea what to expect from Sandoval in 2017, and you shouldn’t trust anyone who tells you otherwise. I mean, if I had to place a bet I’d bet on him being bad. He was bad in 2015, which was the last time we saw him for something close to a full season. Even worse, he got a little worse at every aspect of the game, rather than just falling off in one area. It’s a lot easier to bounce-back in one category than in literally all of them, after all. Plus, he was bad when we saw him in 2016 and it’s not as if sitting out for most of the year is generally a good thing.

On the other hand, as I wrote about earlier in the offseason, we’ve seen these kind of comebacks before. Sandoval is still only going to be 30 in 2017, which puts him relatively far from the end of his career. A bounce-back season at this age would not be all that surprising. His good seasons in San Francisco are still fresh enough to have a tiny bit of confidence in a bounce-back, even if it’s not something worth betting on.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

Michael Kopech

With Moncada getting sent home early, Kopech became the top Red Sox player in the league, and he took the baseball world by storm. He flashed his famous high-velocity fastball, consistently touching the high-90s and sometimes hitting triple digits. He made six starts in Arizona, totaling 22 innings and pitching to an impressive 2.01 ERA. Unsurprisingly, he racked up the strikeouts, setting down 10.5 batters per nine innings thanks to his aforementioned fastball along with an impressive slider. The command continued to be something of an issue, though not one that handcuffed him much in this league. He allowed two home runs in those six starts while walking 3.2 batters per nine innings.

Stock: It’s impossible to say Kopech’s stock has done anything but rise after his performance in Arizona. He was already one of the more exciting pitching prospects in all of baseball, and the fact that he pitched so well and pitched to his strengths in front of a plethora of scouts from across the league is a positive. There is still some question as to whether he’ll be able to harness his command enough to make it as a top-line starter, but it seems more are starting to come around to that idea. His performance in the All-Star Game (two perfect innings with three strikeouts) certainly helped matters. He’s not the best pitching prospect in baseball, but he continued to move up the ranks this fall.

Mauricio Dubon

If you know me at all, you know how much I like Dubon as a prospect. His combination of bat-to-ball ability, speed and defense around the infield gives him a chance to be a good regular in this league and should lead him to at least a long career as a utility man. The former 26th-round pick took a huge step forward in 2016, impressing in both Salem and Portland. While he was hoping to take another step in Arizona, it didn’t go his way. In 18 games, he hit just .211/.273/.408 with three home runs and three stolen bases in five attempts. It was a disappointing offensive performance after such a great year, and one that could indicate a bit of fatigue after a long season. The power is intriguing, and something that he showed off in Portland as well, but Arizona lends itself to inflated power numbers.

Stock: While the overall performance was disappointing, I don’t think it’s fair to say his stock has dropped. Dubon struggled over a small sample, but as I said fatigue could also be an issue. Additionally, he started getting some time in the outfield and didn’t look completely overmatched by the change. Versatility is always going to be the name of the game for Dubon, and getting his outfield career started was an important step for him. That’s true even if it was accompanied by a lackluster offensive performance.

Trey Ball

Ugh. The Red Sox have done a lot of good things in the draft over the years, but their first top-10 pick in what seemed like forever could not have gone worse. Ball was always going to be a project, but he continued to slip over the course of 2016. The hope was that a trip to Arizona would kickstart his career. That…well that didn’t happen. He threw 13 innings across 11 relief appearances, and pitched to a 6.08 ERA in that time. He also walked 13 batters (one per inning, for those who struggle in math) while striking out just nine.

Stock: Down. The same direction it’s been going since Ball has entered the organization. There was certainly criticism of this pick at the time it was made, but we’re seeing the darkest timeline. With the lefty projected to hit Portland in 2017, it’s hard to see things getting any better. Ball was a two-way player when he was drafted, and perhaps the Red Sox are approaching the time to try him in the field.

Jamie Callahan

A former second-round pick, Callahan made his way through the first half of his trip in the minors as a starter before converting to the bullpen in the middle of the 2015 season. He spent the entire 2016 campaign in that role, and showed off decent strikeout stuff with iffy command. In Arizona, however, he looked much better. It was only 12 innings of work, but he allowed just one run on 12 strikeouts and three walks.

Stock: Up. Callahan’s stock was never all that high to begin with, and this strong performance isn’t one to get carried away with. On the other hand, he’s still relatively new to his relief role and did this against a lot of very good competition. He wouldn’t be anything more than the third or fourth piece in a good trade, but he’ll look to take another step towards a real major-league career in a Double-A bullpen next season.

Jalen Beeks

Beeks is a lefty who split the season evenly between High-A and Double-A, impressing in the former and disappointing in the latter. He threw out of the bullpen in Arizona, managing 12 innings of work in ten appearances. Although he struck out 13 batters in those 12 innings, he also gave up plenty of hard contact en route to a 6.57 ERA.

Stock: Even. The performance was bad, but Beeks doesn’t have much stock to begin with. The strikeout stuff was nice to see, and as I said in Dubon’s section home runs are an issue for everyone here. He’s still the same guy with a ceiling of a back-end starter and more likely future as either a back-and-forth arm or a middle reliever.

Danny Mars

We won’t spend too much time here, as Mars is the least exciting name in this bunch. A former sixth-round pick, he spent the season hitting reasonably well in Salem. In Arizona, though, he hit .259/.290/.293 in 17 games.

Stock: Down. Only a little, though. As I said, Mars was never all that exciting to begin with. However, even if the scouts didn’t love him he always put up solid numbers in the minors. Not doing so in Arizona is clearly not a good sign.

 Photo by Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images

Around these parts, the offseason is almost as exciting as when actual baseball games are being played. We get to play GM, and try to decide what the smart and dumb moves will be. We get to overreact to even the smallest news as we try to escape the boredom that comes with the winter months. This is especially true for Red Sox fans, whose team not only has a near-limitless budget and elite farm system, but also a front office head who is not afraid to use them. And yet, the more I try to wrap my head around the coming offseason, the more I see it being mostly quiet for the Red Sox. I’ll get more into the specifics below, but I see a roster that is mostly set. For as aggressive as Dombrowski likes to be, there are few places to show that off, and he’s not stupid to make moves just for the sake of making moves.

How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz’s production?

As Matt Kory said on Tuesday and as many are speculating, Edwin Encarnacion is the obvious answer. He’s a dynamic hitter who has thrived in the AL East, and he slides right into the DH/1B hole that the team would like to fill. Of course, there are going to be a ton of teams in on the slugger and his price will be driven up by a significant margin. I expect the Blue Jays to make a strong push to bring him back that will ultimately end up successful as they push Jose Bautista out the door.

In this scenario, I’d expect Bautista to be another hot name attached to the Red Sox in rumors. In the end, though, I see the team going with one of the mid-tier options on a shorter term deal. Front office executives always speak out of both sides of their mouths, but I believe Dombrowski when he says he believes there are enough hitters coming through the system that a long-term solution is not necessary. As such, I think they’ll go with an aging hitter like Carlos Beltran or Matt Holliday. They were attached to the former at the trade deadline, and there have already been reports they’ll be interested again this winter. Although I prefer Holliday, I think Beltran will be brought in on relatively lucrative one-year deal, possibly with a vesting option for a second.

How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?

God, this is so boring. Once again, I think Dombrowski and the Red Sox will go with a mid-tier option to fill this need. Expect their name to constantly be brought up with respect to Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, but don’t expect it to actually happen. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if most of those rumors are brought on from leaks on the player’s side, which will be willing to exaggerate facts to make their market appear more bullish among the big-market teams.

Instead, I think the Red Sox will search for that middle ground. Mark Melancon could be the best fit, as he’s proven himself to be outstanding, will cost a fraction of the big two, and won’t cost a draft pick. However, given his history here and the speculation that playing in a big market affected his performance, I wouldn’t bet on him either. I think they’ll be in play for Koji Uehara and/or Brad Ziegler, but will ultimately let both walk. The same goes for Greg Holland, whose market should be fascinating to watch. The group I believe they’ll be looking for would be Santiago Casilla, Joe Blanton, Sergio Romo, Neftali Feliz and Daniel Hudson. If I had to guess, I’d say Feliz will be the target, but it’s a large group and any one of the options would be a fit, albeit an underwhelming one.

I would also say that, if I were running the Red Sox (thank god that’s not the reality), I’d also target a left-handed reliever. Someone like Brett Cecil or Marc Rzepcynski could be big upgrades over what they’ve run out since Andrew Miller left. I don’t see it happening, though.

Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?

This really doesn’t sound like a Dombrowski offseason, but once again I don’t see them doing anything here. The big step forward from Rick Porcello was a huge development for the Red Sox, and with the weak starting pitching market I can’t see them paying big dollars or a big price in a trade for a spot they don’t really need. I believe this is a big part of why they traded for Drew Pomeranz in the summer, as he was both a help for the stretch run and something of an early offseason acquisition for 2017. David Price was Dombrowski’s biggest get as a member of the Red Sox, and I have to think they still believe in his ace potential even after a disappointing season. With him, Porcello and Pomeranz at the top, an intriguing Eduardo Rodriguez in the middle and Steven Wright and Clay Buchholz as back-end and depth options, I think they’ll be satisfied with their in-house options. If anyone is added, I’d guess it’ll be someone who will sign a minor-league deal and will serve as depth in spring training.

Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?

Everyone assumes Dombrowski can’t resist trading his prospect, but I don’t see it that way. To me, he’s a guy who’s not afraid to deal the necessary pieces in hopes of landing a big fish. As I’ve made abundantly clear, I don’t think they’ll feel the pressure to make that big addition like last year, when they needed both a closer and an ace. If they do make a trade, I think it’ll be for the set-up man they seek, which could cost one or more of their bottom-half top-ten prospects (hands off Dubon, though). Chris Sale will be the popular trade target, but I don’t think Chicago will trade him unless they get Yoan Moncada and either Andrew Benintendi or Jackie Bradley (plus more), something I don’t see the Red Sox doing. In the end, Sale appears to be the next Felix Hernandez and Giancarlo Stanton for Sox fans. With all of that being said, it wouldn’t shock me to see a big trade, but it’s not something I’m anticipating.

I would also say that I’d keep my eye out for a trade for a catcher. I don’t necessarily see it happening, and I wouldn’t predict it with Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart in house. If someone like Miguel Montero becomes available for pennies on the dollar, though, I could see the Red Sox diving into the market.

Miscellaneous Thoughts:

Biggest Acquisiton: Carlos Beltran
Biggest Loss: Koji Uehara
Biggest Surprise: Dave Dombrowski stays mostly quiet

Opening Day Roster Projection

Photo by Kevin Jairaj/USA Today Sports Images

As much as we, as fans, have tried to push him out of our minds during this season filled with fun, he’s almost back. I’ll get more into this just a little bit later, but I think it’s fair to say the chances of Sandoval being dealt are slim to none. The other internal third base options, Travis Shaw and Yoan Moncada, both have enough questions marks to justify giving Sandoval a shot. The former struggled for most of the season after supplanting Sandoval in the spring and getting off to a red-hot start. The latter did not look comfortable at the plate in the Majors and is likely ticketed for Pawtucket to start the season.

That leaves Sandoval, who obviously has his own question marks but also has more of a track record than the other internal options. If we’re being honest with ourselves, his forecast for 2017 is not great. However, we’ve been down this road before, and it’s worked out in the past.

Travel back with me to April 2013. The Harlem Shake was a thing for some reason. Blurred Lines was being played everywhere on Earth. Yours truly was just about to graduate college. John Lackey was coming back to the mound for the Red Sox after missing all of 2012 on the disabled list. We all know what ended up happening that season, but it’s easy to forget the outlook we had on everything before the year began. Lackey was arguably the most hated athlete in Boston. He was viewed as massively overpaid, having been disappointing (but actually not terrible) in 2010 then completely falling on his face in 2011. Obviously, 2012 was a season to forget, but in the eyes of many, there was a silver-lining in not being forced to watch Lackey.

Then, he turned around the perception of himself in 2013. It’s fair to assume the injury had something to do with his struggles in 2011. Taking some time out of the negative spotlight probably didn’t hurt, either. Lackey looked like a totally new man after his year off, upping his strikeout rate to prime-levels while showing off control he had never shown before. He quickly changed his perception in the city and was a major reason the Red Sox won the World Series.

Sandoval is itching for a similar turnaround in narrative. Heading into next year, Sandoval is in a similar position to 2012 Lackey. He doesn’t have the extra disappointing year mixed in, but he did have a little time to disappoint us at the start of 2016. He didn’t have a hit in seven plate appearances before hitting the DL, and more importantly, this happened. After that debacle, it’s fair to say his Q-Rating was at an all-time low. After missing the rest of the season, Sandoval is now ready to take his 2013 Lackey step forward. How can he do it?

The best model to go by is that Lackey model. In other words, Sandoval can bounce back if he regains his old form in one area (a la Lackey’s strikeouts) while reaching new heights in another (the walks). For Sandoval, there are two options for the first category. For starters, he could certainly use some improvement on the defensive side of things. After spending his Giants career as a surprisingly solid third baseman, he was terrible in 2015 with the Red Sox. Both the eye test and all of the defensive metrics we have access to back up this point. Of course, given his age and body type, one can’t expect too much improvement here.

The other option is getting back on track with his BABIP. His offensive success in San Francisco always came on the back of average or better BABIPs. With Boston, Sandoval only hit .270 on balls in play, far and away the worst mark of his career. He was pounding the ball into the ground too often, and he clearly doesn’t have the speed to beat out infield singles. If he can get back to his line drive-oriented swing, one can see him pushing .320 BABIPs once again.

The other side of this, developing a new skillset, is yet another page he can take from Lackey’s book. While the pitcher started limiting free passes at a career-high rate, Sandoval would do well to start drawing more walks. Obviously, this goes against who he’s always been as a hitter, as his aggressiveness is one of his calling cards. However, if anyone is in a position to drastically change his profile, it’s a player who just lost an entire season and is in desperate need of a narrative shift.

Sandoval consistently gets low zone rates, because pitchers know he’ll swing at everything. If he can find a way to fight his instincts, he’ll draw walks early on in the year just because pitchers haven’t adjusted yet. Again, this is likely wishful thinking, but it’s a change that could dramatically improve his overall production at the plate.

The bad news for Red Sox fans is that Lackey-like transformations don’t happen often. For every one of those, there’s a Carl Crawford who never turns it around. The good news is that Boston has had a good track record with this of late, as both Rick Porcello and Hanley Ramirez could qualify to some extent. Still, Lackey is the most extreme example, and there are some real parallels between the start of his Red Sox career and Sandoval’s. With third base currently a question mark, it would do everyone a world of good if Sandoval can continue those parallels.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

As of right now, and barring any unforeseen trades, there is a solid base upon which this rotation can be built. David Price and Rick Porcello should be a solid one-two punch atop a rotation. Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez showed enough to be counted on as high-upside midrotation arms. Even Clay Buchholz built his stock up enough to be in play for starts in 2017. Forgotten in all of this is Steven Wright. The rotation really built up its stock in the second half, and Wright was largely absent from much of that stretch. As fans, we have a tendency to overrate post-All-Star break performances, particularly when they are positive. However, Wright was the best pitcher on the team for most of the first half, and should be part of the picture heading into 2017. So, let’s take a look back at his season as a whole and figure out what to expect from him in the coming season.

There is a logical tendency to downplay Wright’s performance when he was at his peak, both because knuckleballers are inherently worrisome and because he had close to no track record before going on his run. This tendency is exacerbated by the fact that his performance was trending downwards before he was shut down for the season. His last two starts in particular were ugly as he pitched to an 8.10 ERA. However, he still showed flashes of brilliance in his final start before initially hitting the disabled list, throwing a complete game shutout with nine strikeouts against the Dodgers.

Overall, there are two ways you can look at Wright’s season. By ERA and FIP, he had a fantastic season finishing with a 3.33 ERA and a 3.73 FIP. The latter number isn’t super impressive, but it’s made better by the fact that knuckleballers generally out-perform their peripherals. On the other hand, DRA and cFIP weren’t as enthused, with the former viewing him as slightly better than league-average and the latter seeing him as slightly worse. Taking everything into consideration, my gut tells me the numbers are more than fine, but there are real concerns. More specifically, it looks like he’s right on the precipice of unacceptable walk totals. Wright walked 3.3 batters per nine innings, compared to a league-average of 2.96 from starting pitchers. Knuckleballers are certainly going to miss the zone more often than one would ideally like due to the random nature of their pitch, but there’s a limit to how many free passes one can allow.

The issue for Wright in this regard, though, isn’t that he’s missing the zone. In fact, among the 142 pitchers with at least 1500 pitches in 2016, only 15 hit the zone more often. The problem is that opponents weren’t chasing his knuckleball. Among that same crop of pitchers, only Chase Anderson induced fewer swings out of the zone. This does make some sense as hitters are more likely to expect a ball coming from the unpredictable knuckleball, making them more inclined to take any given pitch. As long as he’s hitting the zone at such a high rate, his walk rate should stay stable. While he’s been able to do so throughout his major-league career, it’s always a fine line with a knuckleballer.

The other interesting portion of his season was his ability to suppress success on batted balls. As I said before, knuckleballers are able to outperform their peripherals, and Wright was no exception by allowing a .279 BABIP. He does so because the knuckleball is very hard to barrell. While he doesn’t allow a ton of ground balls — his 45 percent ground ball rate is almost exactly in the middle of the pack — he makes up for that by inducing a ton of fly balls. Among the 144 pitchers with at least 100 innings, just 15 allowed fly balls more often. The result is that just one pitcher allowed fewer line drives on a rate basis.* This appears to be a sustainable skill. To illustrate how hard he is to square up, look no further than his swinging strike rate (31st out of 142) and his contact rate on pitches in the zone (third lowest). Wright was also helped by an outstanding outfield defense that should stay in tact heading into next season.

*That pitcher was Clay Buchholz, for what it’s worth.

So, with all of this said, I think it’s fair to mostly expect positive things from Wright in 2017. I think there will be some speculation about him being traded this winter, but I wouldn’t expect it to actually happen. The value any pitcher can fetch in a trade is intriguing, but one must consider the cost of acquiring a replacement. Although he almost certainly won’t be the Cy Young candidate he was for much of the first half, there’s enough evidence Wright should be a positive contributor. As long as he continues to hit the zone as much as he has in the past, he’ll be able to walk the fine line around free passes. The combination of the weak contact he allows and the strong defense behind him will allow him to continue to suppress opponents’ BABIPs. The end product is a strong addition behind Price and Porcello and a contributor to what should be another solid Red Sox rotation.

Photo by Peter Aiken/USA Today Sports Images

Nonetheless, I’m going to go in a different direction today for a couple of reasons. The first is that other people are doing it much better than I could or would. Go read everything you can find about the slugger, because each piece is worth reading. The second is that I’m a strange person who is unhealthily obsessed with zigging when everyone else is zagging. I’m also very much into relievers, in case you’ve never read anything I’ve written. So, with that being said, I’m going to spend the rest of this post saying goodbye to another one of my favorite Red Sox players of the last few years.

As you can tell by the picture at the top of this post, I am talking about Junichi Tazawa. To be clear, there is nothing official that has come out to suggest that 2016 was definitely the righty’s final season with the Red Sox. It does seem very likely to be the case, though. You never know what kind of moves will be made during the offseason, but the Red Sox will almost certainly have Craig Kimbrel, Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree and Joe Kelly throwing out of their bullpen from the right side in 2017. Then, there are Koji Uehara and Brad Ziegler, who would both be higher priorities to re-sign. This is without mentioning the possibility of promoting someone like Kyle Martin, the comeback of Carson Smith and/or Brandon Workman and the possibility of bringing in someone from outside the organization. All of this, combined with the fact Tazawa was relatively disappointing for much of 2016, indicates the Red Sox are likely to let him walk this winter. My goal is for Tazawa’s second-half performance to not be the lasting impression of his tenure in Boston.

To start with, how Tazawa even made it to the majors is a fascinating origin story that doesn’t get told enough. He came over from Japan, but not in the way most players from that region do. Instead of playing for an NPB team for the first eight years of his career, he skipped that step and was signed by the Red Sox as an international free agent. This decision has gotten him essentially shunned from Japanese baseball, as he’s not allowed to play in the NPB for two years after leaving the majors, and was not allowed to pitch for his country in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. It’s an unfortunate — and quite frankly, unfair — treatment of a tremendous talent who decided he’d rather hit the open market than be tethered to whichever NPB club drafted him for eight years.

Beyond that, however, Tazawa truly made his mark in Boston despite flying under-the-radar for much of his career. He was first called up in 2009, pitched poorly for 25 innings, then didn’t make the majors again until the end of 2011. After that, his career took off.

Since this is Baseball Prospectus, we like to focus on the numbers. Tazawa does not falter there. From 2012 to 2014, he was arguably the most underrated reliever in all of baseball. He was at least in the discussion. He was in the top 20 percent of relievers in ERA in that span and the top 12 percent of relievers in FIP. His best quality has always been his ability to control the strike zone, which is shown off by the fact that his 5.3 K/BB ratio over that time ranks fourth among 170 qualified relievers. (Off topic, but Koji’s K/BB in that span was 11.2!) Tazawa was never really put in the closer role, and things didn’t go exceedingly well in the situations where he was, but he put up great numbers in an important set-up role.

Even beyond the stats, other fond memories should not be forgotten. The start of the production portion of his career, 2012, is near the top of that list. Obviously, not much about that year is positive. This was the Year of Bobby V, and there weren’t many fun times watching that team on a daily basis. Tazawa was one of those bright spots. He came out of nowhere to emerge as a legitimate weapon, and him being on the mound was one of the few times you could feel confident in the Red Sox. In fact, it was his most impression season by DRA- and cFIP, as he put up marks of 82 and 74, respectively.

It was this season that set him up for his greatest triumph, which was the 2013 campaign. Tazawa had proven himself a useful weapon, and John Farrell rode him all the way to the World Series. He threw in 71 games that season with a 3.16 ERA, more than a strikeout per inning and an above-average DRA and cFIP. Then, he took over in the playoffs and allowed just one run over 13 appearances in seven innings of work.

Of course, the moment he’ll always be remembered for was his battle with Miguel Cabrera in Game Three of the ALCS. He came in trying to hold on to a 1-0 lead with runners on the corners and one out with arguably the best hitter in the world at the plate. He threw him nothing but mid-90’s fastballs and set Cabrera down on four pitches, helping the Red Sox win that crucial game.

Relievers are always inherently underrated, especially if they never serve as closers. They don’t help in fantasy, and they rarely celebrate on the mound after a big win. They are hugely important pieces of good teams, though, and Tazawa embodies that fact. He’s almost certainly going to be somewhere else next year, and hopefully he’ll pitch well and extend his career as long as he can.

Then, in 2023 or in 2033 or whenever it happens to be, the Red Sox will honor that 2013 team. All of the players will come out on the field, and Tazawa will be in the middle of them. The camera will pan over him, and we’ll laugh since we’ll all have forgotten about him. Hopefully, though, the memories of all his success come flooding back. It’s appropriate that his likely departure is being overshadowed by Ortiz’s, as that’s how he spent his career. But Tazawa deserves his small moment in the sun, too.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

It goes without saying that every team in the postseason wants to get off to a good start in every series. This is particularly true in a five-game series. Obviously, it’s more important to win the first game the shorter a series gets. If you win Game One of a five-game series, you are 33 percent of the way to the next round.

Just how important is it, though? Is it so important that we should start preparing our own personal meltdowns if the Sox lose the series opener? Let’s look at some recent history to see what we can figure out.

In order to do this, I looked back at the last 10 years of Division Series results. That gives us 40 series to choose from, an ample sample size to determine a trend that becomes fairly obvious sooner rather than later. Of the 40 series, 31 teams who have won the first game of the series went on to win the series, giving them a .775 winning percentage. Furthermore, in six of the 10 years I looked at, all four teams who won the first game ended up going on to the LCS.

That’s not the only factor at play here, though. The Red Sox are on the road, and there are two ways to look at this. The first is that this inherently makes them the worse team since they couldn’t secure home field advantage. Given how close this particular race was, that doesn’t really work in this case. The other way to look at this is that, if the Red Sox win the opener, they have an even bigger advantage.

You hear it in every playoff series in every sport: If the road team wins Game One, they suddenly take over home field advantage. However, that second line of thinking hasn’t really played out. In this 10-year sample, 18 road teams have taken the first game of a Division Series. Those teams have gone on to win the series 13 times, giving them a .722 winning percentage. That’s clearly a high winning percentage, but it’s slightly worse than the overall record.

Once again, there is another layer to this I found interesting. Teams have recently shown a greater ability to come back after losing the first game. From 2006 through 2010, teams were 19-1, with the 2006 Yankees being the only team to win the first game and still lose the series. Things have changed pretty drastically since then, with Game One winners going just 12-8. Last season, three of the four Game One winners actually went on to lose the series. One would think the growing parity through the game has something to do with it. Even 10 years ago, the top of the league was utterly dominant, so they were much more likely to take command of a series early on.

All this is arguably good news for the Red Sox. However you feel about the Rick Porcello vs. David Price debate for Game One, Boston will have a strong pitcher on the mound. Cleveland, meanwhile, lost Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco to injury and were forced to push Corey Kluber back to Game Two. This leaves Trevor Bauer to take on Porcello. Bauer has shown flashes of success both this year and throughout his career, but he’s never been able to put it together consistently. Of course, baseball teams lose with the pitching advantage all the time, so the Red Sox are probably only something like 55 percent favorites.

So, I think it’s pretty clear that winning Game One is hugely important. Again, this isn’t all that surprising in a five-game series, and I would expect the numbers to be different in a seven-game set. If the Red Sox are fortunate enough to play in one of those, perhaps I’ll do this again. My advice would be to set your meltdown-o-meter to a six if the Red Sox lose Game One. History shows that’s a tough place to be, particularly if you lose to a home team.

However, recent history has been much more kind to Game One losers. Plus, if there’s one word you can use to describe this Red Sox team, it’s resilient.