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	<title>Boston &#187; Matt Huegel</title>
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		<title>Roster Recap: Rick Porcello Salvages an Ugly Season</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/23/roster-recap-rick-porcello-salvages-an-ugly-season/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/23/roster-recap-rick-porcello-salvages-an-ugly-season/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Dec 2015 14:46:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Huegel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Porcello]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3159</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Rick Porcello was really, really bad and then really, really good last year. What can we expect moving forward?]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Welcome to BP Boston’s Roster Recap series! Over the next four months, we’ll be breaking down every player on Boston’s 40-man roster and many of their top prospects in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the Red Sox roster’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as what we can expect moving forward. There’s no better time than the offseason to review the best (there was some best!) and worst (there was a lot of worst!) of the past year in red and navy. </i><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/red-sox-roster-recap-2016/"><i>You can see previous editions of Roster Recap here</i></a><i>.</i></p>
<p>Another Roster Recap marks another low point in a player’s career. In this case it was Rick Porcello, who had just about the worst stretch of his professional career prior to righting himself to close out the season. However, it was not all bad, as he set also set a career-high mark in strikeout rate, and finished the season strong after returning from a month-long DL stint.</p>
<p>The Red Sox were able to lock up the 26-year-old for four years at $82.5-million just before the season began, but did not see immediate returns on their investment. However, considering his youth and past accomplishments, it still would not have been a surprise to see Porcello receive a similar deal or even better (especially in length) this offseason if he had become an unrestricted free agent, considering the market for starting pitching (cough Mike Leake cough). In terms of results, Porcello tied his age-21 season for worst ERA of his career, at 4.92. He&#8217;s had three seasons where he has put up an ERA+ under 93, and this was the first one since 2011, when he was still developing. The season began on a down note for Porcello and only got worse each month up until spending most of the month of August on the DL. After returning to the mound on Aug. 26, Porcello was able to finish the season on an upswing for the final month-plus.</p>
<p>Though he finished strong, most of the season more closely resembled this run-in with Kevin Youkilis from years earlier: ugly.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=6053903&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><strong>What Went Right in 2015</strong><br />
In his final eight start of the season after returning from the DL stint, Porcello posted a 3.14 ERA in 57 1/3 innings, striking out 57 and walking just 11 batters. His final start of the season allowed him to just squeeze his ERA under 5 for the first time since late May. Perhaps the highlight of his season was his Sept. 1 start against the New York Yankees in which he allowed one earned run over eight innings and struck out 13. He went on to strike out eight batters in three of his final six starts after that, including against Tampa Bay on Sept. 23.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=497855683&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>On the season, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was the best of his career, mainly due to the highest strikeout rate of his career. His hits allowed rate was among the highest of his career, but not wildly off the norm. He was also able to hold lefties in check better than career averages for the most part, striking out 3.73 for every walk this season versus a career 2.17 rate against southpaw hitters.</p>
<p>Despite all of the turmoil, Porcello still managed to give the team 172 innings of work. He&#8217;s never pitched fewer than 162 innings in a season, and six of his seven major league seasons he&#8217;s gone over 170 innings. In a season not much else went right, a starting pitcher still takes pride in taking the mound on a consistent basis.</p>
<p><strong>What Went Wrong in 2015</strong><br />
The biggest negative that stands out—besides all of the runs allowed—was the spike in home run rate. Porcello gave up 25 home runs last season, tied for ninth-most in the AL, and two more than his previous high in his rookie season and seven more than in any of his other seasons. However, his home run-to-fly ball rate was also the highest of his career, and well-above the 2015 league average of 14.5%, which shows a degree of unluckiness in the power department. While a pitcher can control the type of batted ball hit against them, there is more luck involved with whether a fly ball ends up just barely in the seats or in the outfielder&#8217;s glove. Therefore, the fact that Porcello&#8217;s rate in this category puts him third-highest in the AL among qualifying pitchers demonstrates he was done no favor by the baseball gods.</p>
<p>More concerning is that Porcello induced the lowest ground ball rate of his career and his fly ball rate was the highest. His velocity was on par with the rest of his career, and it was actually a strong season in terms of fastball velocity, as he averaged 92.6 mph on the four seamer according to Brooks Baseball. He did rely more heavily on the four-seam fastball than ever before in his career and his sinker usage was low, a pattern that has been trending in that direction every season since his rookie year, for the most part. He has also transitioned the slider into more of a cutter over the past two seasons. The increased fastball usage explains both the higher fly ball and strikeout rates as he looks to have been challenging hitters with the heat more often as his career has developed, as he generated a high number of swing and misses on his fastball compared to other pitchers. The transition away from the sinker also explains the dip in ground ball rate, something he was known for early in his career and that he needs to work towards getting back to.<br />
<a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart1.png"><img class="  wp-image-3160 aligncenter" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart1-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart" width="790" height="527" /></a></p>
<p>The top line on the chart is the sinker and the bottom is the four-seam fastball, in case it&#8217;s not clear.</p>
<p>One other thing that stands out are the high number of batters hit by pitches and wild pitches. Porcello hit 10 batters and had 12 wild pitches, compared with 4 and 0 in those categories the season before, respectively. While this would suggest a new found problem with erratic control, it does not jive with the fact that he tied his career-low in walks allowed. Leading to the obvious conclusion that 2015 was just a really weird, illogical season for Porcello.</p>
<p><strong>Outlook for 2016</strong><br />
Despite the down season, Porcello will enter 2015 as the second or third starter in a Boston rotation that hopes to be much improved. Obviously the acquisition of David Price will play a large role in that, but the club is also counting on Porcello returning to form as a big part of the revitalized rotation. Much of the success of the rotation—and entire team—will rest on the shoulders of Porcello and fellow mid-rotation starter Clay Buchholz. Eduardo Rodriguez and Joe Kelly look like the leading candidates to fill out the rotation behind them, but both are unproven to some degree. The fact that Rodriguez (young), Kelly (great stuff/mixed results), and Buchholz (enigma) all provide some level of uncertainty is all the more reason Porcello needs to be a steadying force in the rotation, even if he is not able to maintain his late season dominance. In 2016, this team will take solid middle rotation performance from Porcello if he can just keep the blow-up outings to a minimum. Based on his career track record and lack of real red flags this season, I’m putting my money on a solid-but-unspectacular 2016 for the righty.</p>
<p><em>Photo by USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Roster Recap: Junichi Tazawa&#8217;s Taxing Workload</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/04/roster-recap-junichi-tazawas-taxing-workload/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2015 11:00:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Huegel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Craig Kimbrel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[junichi tazawa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Koji Uehara]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3034</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Junichi Tazawa was used approximately 2,542 times between 2013-2015. Can he regain his form as a dominant set-up man next year?]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Welcome to BP Boston’s Roster Recap series! Over the next four months, we’ll be breaking down every player on Boston’s 40-man roster and many of their top prospects in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the Red Sox roster’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as what we can expect moving forward. There’s no better time than the offseason to review the best (there was some best!) and worst (there was a lot of worst!) of the past year in red and navy. <a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/red-sox-roster-recap-2016/" target="_blank">You can see previous editions of Roster Recap here</a>.</i></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In a theme that may be common in these Roster Recaps, 2015 was Junichi Tazawa&#8217;s worst season since establishing himself in the majors in 2012. Over the two seasons prior to 2015, Tazawa was ridden hard by the team, appearing in 71 games apiece plus every game but two over the 2013 postseason run to add on 13 more appearances that year. That heavy workload looks to have taken its toll last season, as it was a tale of two halves for the righty setup man.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">On June 11, Tazawa lowered his ERA to 1.33 and opponents were batting .179 against. In his 32 appearances after that date, he posted a 6.54 ERA and allowed hitters to bat a whopping .350 against him. The full collapse came in August, when he put together the worst month of his career. This period also came at a time when Koji Uehara was placed on the disabled list, casting Tazawa into a closer&#8217;s role that he has not had success in throughout his career. He battled various minor ailments throughout the season, including one to the hip and groin area in late August, before finally being shut down on September 15 due to &#8220;workload concerns.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><b>What Went Right in 2015</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Prior to his five-run, no-outs performance on June 12, just about everything was going right for Tazawa. With very little else working for Boston&#8217;s bullpen, this put a heavy burden on Taz, who had also been heavily taxed in the two previous seasons. In April, Tazawa appeared in exactly half of the team&#8217;s games (an 81-appearance pace over a full season), giving up just two earned runs and walking one while striking more than a batter per inning. That type of success—and workload—continued into May for the setup man, as he appeared in 13 of the team&#8217;s 29 games, allowing another two earned runs on the month. Although it is a small sample size from which to draw conclusions, his strikeout rate and walk rate were both worse than in April and than his career norms, which perhaps hinted at the oncoming decline.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=195262883&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Tazawa continued on with his dominance for his first five appearances in June, allowing just one hit and no runs in that time. Excluding that one five-run (four earned) appearance on June 12, the righty was actually solid through July, posting a 2.50 ERA over 16 games in that month and a half. His strikeout and walk rates also held strong, but his .278 batting average against over that time showed that the wear was beginning to set in, before an all-around dreadful August. Overall, Tazawa was mostly his dominant self before intermittent stumbles in June and July. Then, he completely fell off the cliff in August. The lack of other viable bullpen options led to his overuse last season, and combined with heavy workloads the two seasons prior, we arrive at what went wrong in 2015.</span></p>
<p><b>What Went Wrong in 2015</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The second half of the season and particularly a horrific August that led to his shutdown marred what was shaping up to be another strong season from the team&#8217;s primary setup man. Tazawa appeared in half the team&#8217;s games in April and stayed close to that pace in May before slowing down only modestly. Up until he was shut down in early September, the team rode him hard despite the fall off, mostly because they had few other serviceable options out of the bullpen.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This rough period coincided with Koji Uehara being placed on the DL on August 10, giving Tazawa the opportunity to test his mettle in the ninth. However, in that month alone, he blew four save opportunities and allowed 10 earned runs in 11 total appearances. He did collect three saves in August but he was inconsistent, alternating between scoreless and blowup innings, but the three total strikeouts demonstrate just how much sharpness his stuff lacked during that time. In save situations last season, Tazawa posted a 7.11 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP versus 1.89 and 1.02, respectively, in non-save situations. Of course, his BABIP was over 100 points higher in save situations at .417, so bad luck was a factor, and he was clearly tiring at the time regardless of role. But his career number as a closer are not much better, with a 4.52 ERA and 1.30 WHIP when called on to close out the game. Lucky for him, the Red Sox acquired Craig Kimbrel this offseason, lowering any chances Tazawa will be called on to fill that role next season.</span></p>
<p><b>Outlook for 2016</b></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Boston invested a lot of resources in acquiring Kimbrel, and he will immediately assume the role of closer, pushing Uehara back into a setup role. The plan is for Tazawa to share this role with him, which will hopefully help to limit both of their usages. Although this may seem like a demotion for Tazawa and Uehara, it could benefit both by allowing them to sustain the dominance they&#8217;ve shown in recent years when not injured or overtaxed. If all three can stay healthy and Tazawa can regain his dominance in a more comfortable role, the potential is there to form the most fearsome bullpen trio in the league.</span></strong></p>
<p><em>Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Game 80 Recap: Blue Jays 11, Red Sox 2</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/02/game-80-recap-blue-jays-11-red-sox-2/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/02/game-80-recap-blue-jays-11-red-sox-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2015 11:00:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Huegel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Batting Practice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dear god why]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Napoli]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Porcello]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1596</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well that sucked.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The hits just keep coming… against Rick Porcello.</p>
<p><b>Top Play (WPA)</b>: The top seven plays in the game all involved Porcello, took place in the first or second inning, and sealed the game in Toronto&#8217;s favor early. The top overall play went to Edwin Encarnacion on his three-run homer (.165) that began the scoring in Porcello&#8217;s nightmare outing. That was followed up by a two-run shot by Justin Smoak (.093) before another out was recorded. Although Smoak&#8217;s home run, along with the next six runs scored by Toronto, proved to be unnecessary, as the Red Sox offense could only muster two runs of their own in the game.</p>
<p><b>Bottom Play (WPA)</b>: On the bright side, it wasn&#8217;t all bad for Porcello (what am I saying, yes it was). But he did manage to strike out three batters in two innings, including Jose Bautista for the first out of the game, producing the bottom play of this contest (-.052). On the other hand, 16 of the next 20 lowest plays by WPA were made by Red Sox hitters.</p>
<p><b>Key Moment</b>: The key moment was pretty simply the entire first inning. Encarnacion drove in more runs with one out in the first than the Red Sox would score all day. But Porcello continued to give up runs, never even giving his offense a chance.</p>
<p><b>Trends to Watch</b>: What&#8217;s up with Porcello? His strikeout and walk rates are pretty similar to his career numbers—the strikeout rate is actually up slightly—but his other numbers, especially his home run rate, have gone in the negative direction. He&#8217;s now given up 16 long balls on the season, which ties the amount he gave up in 2012 over 176 1/3 innings. Every other season besides his rookie year, he gave up exactly 18, which he&#8217;s looking to sail past in his next outing at the current rate. He is just 26 years old with six mostly successful seasons under his belt, including his best last year, which leads me to my initial question: What&#8217;s up with Porcello? Obviously, not even the Red Sox have an answer for that, but you can bet they&#8217;re busy searching, trying to make good on their $82.5-million investment.</p>
<p>Mike Napoli fell below .200 yet again with an 0-for-4 performance and another two strikeouts. Seems to be one step forward, two steps back with him all season. Much like Porcello, you have got to wonder if it&#8217;s time for the Red Sox to make a move with Napoli. For Porcello that would likely mean a DL trip, which could be the case with Napoli, but they could also decide it&#8217;s time to move on altogether. On a positive note, Hanley Ramirez returned to the lineup in left field and stroked his first triple of the season, which is four less than Alejandro De Aza now has after adding one of his own in this game. #YearOfTheTriple</p>
<p>Defensive wiz Deven Marrero made the first major league start of his career, getting the nod at second base with Brock Holt getting the day off. Unsurprisingly, he went 0-for-3 with a strikeout, as he is known much more for his glove than his bat. He was batting .245 with four home runs in Pawtucket, playing mostly shortstop, where he has elite tools. He already made a game-saving play in his major league debut on Sunday. Marrero has some work to do with the bat, but has a high floor with a chance to be a major league starter.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=206716783&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
<strong><br />
Coming Next</strong>: The Red Sox face the Blue Jays for one more game tonight in Toronto as Wade Miley squares off against left-handed rookie Matt Boyd. In his first major league start, Boyd went 6 2/3 innings against Texas, allowing four runs on nine hits with seven strikeouts. Boston heads home to face the Houston Astros for a weekend series starting Friday.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><em>Photo by Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Game 74 Recap: Orioles 8, Red Sox 6</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/26/game-74-recap-orioles-8-red-sox-6/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/26/game-74-recap-orioles-8-red-sox-6/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2015 11:00:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Huegel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alejandro De Aza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eduardo Rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jonathan Aro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Napoli]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1515</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At least we can hit? ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While the Red Sox hitters are starting to heat up, the starting pitching remains erratic at best.</p>
<p><b>Top Play (WPA)</b>: The top two plays in the game were homers from each team in the fourth inning. Baltimore scored six times in the inning to end Eduardo Rodriguez’s day early, led by Matt Wieters’ two-run home run, which proved to be the top play by WPA (.219). Boston’s offense, which has been trending upwards recently, answered in the bottom of the inning with three runs of their own when Alejandro De Aza homered against his former team to drive in Pablo Sandoval and Mike Napoli (.149). However, the bullpen could not hold down Baltimore’s offense as the Red Sox attempted to come from behind. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts plated two more runs in the seventh on a single and a double, respectively.</p>
<p><b>Bottom Play (WPA): </b>The man who had Boston’s top play in the game also produced the bottom play against his former team. In the sixth inning with no outs and Napoli on first, De Aza grounded into a double play (-.089) to kill Boston’s hope for a big inning.</p>
<p><b>Key Moment</b>: Wieters’ two-run home run in the top of the fourth and the ensuing offensive outburst by Baltimore knocked Rodriguez out of the game. The bullpen allowed just two more runs over the final 5 1/3 innings, but those runs proved to be the difference in the game.</p>
<p><b>Trends to Watch: </b>Eduardo Rodriguez has now made six major league starts. In the first three, he looked invincible, allowing just one earned run over 20 2/3 innings while striking out 21. His fourth start was where he showed he’s still a young player learning how to pitch at the major league level, allowing nine runs to the Toronto Blue Jays. He followed that up with a solid 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball, before going just 3 2/3 on Thursday. This is to be expected with young players, especially considering his quick ascent and age of 22. He’s shown flashes of his potential so far, and although he doesn’t project to be an ace, he has the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect in the system and a bright future ahead of him.</p>
<p>Napoli broke up a streak of six strikeouts in a row in his first at-bat of the game with a bloop ground-rule double. He added another single in the fourth inning and scored two runs to raise his average just above the Mendoza line to .203. Napoli is known as a streaky hitter. Could this be the start of one of his hot streaks? Maybe, but that question has been asked many times already this season.</p>
<p>Jonathan Aro was called up from Pawtucket prior to the game, and was thrust into action right away due to Rodriguez’s early departure. He allowed four hits and one run while striking out two over his 1 1/3 innings of work. At this time last year, Aro was pitching in Low-A Greenville, but he has continued to excel and rocketed through the system. This season in 44 2/3 innings pitched split evenly between Portland and Pawtucket, he owns a 2.22 ERA with 49 strikeouts and just 11 walks. Even more impressively, he put up a ratio of 30 strikeouts to three walks after his promotion to the PawSox. While he doesn’t profile as a future closer-type, the 24-year-old looks like a nice bullpen piece with some late-inning upside.</p>
<p><b>Coming Next: </b>The Red Sox head down to Florida for the start of a three-game weekend series against the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays tomorrow night.  The Rays are coming off a series loss to the Blue Jays, but still lead the New York Yankees by a game. If the Red Sox plan to mount any sort of a comeback this season, they need to win this series.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images </em></p>
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		<title>Game 47 Recap: Twins 6, Red Sox 4</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/28/game-47-recap-twins-6-red-sox-4/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/28/game-47-recap-twins-6-red-sox-4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2015 11:15:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Huegel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dustin Pedroia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Porcello]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1116</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is a bad, dumb season. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dustin Pedroia tried to put the offense on his back, but Rick Porcello let them down. Red Sox swept.</p>
<p><b>Top Play (WPA)</b>: The top two plays in the game by WPA go to Twins hitters Aaron Hicks and Torii Hunter. The top play was Hicks’ two-run homer in the fourth (.179), which put his team up 5-2 and proved to be the winning runs. While Hicks gave one a ride, Hunter struck the ball about as weakly as you can for a hit over the head of Mike Napoli (a hit Tim Britton aptly described as a “duck snort”) to drive in two runs with the bases loaded and tie the game in the second (.175) after Dustin Pedroia had put the team up by two with his home run in the top of the inning. Pedroia’s two home runs were the next two highest-rated plays (.168 and .138), but unfortunately that is all the offense the team could muster.</p>
<p><b>Bottom Play (WPA)</b>: In an upset, the bottom play in this game was also made by a Minnesota Twins hitter, Trevor Plouffe. In the third inning with three runs already in and runners on first and third, Plouffe grounded into a rally-killing double play (-1.23). Porcello’s day likely would have ended a lot earlier than it did if not for this play.</p>
<p><b>Key Moment</b>: The bottom of the third after Pedroia put the team up by two runs in the top of the inning. Boston needed Porcello to come out and shut down the Twins after being handed a lead. It started off well enough with a groundout to second, but that was followed up with two walks and a single to load the bases, ultimately setting the scene for Hunter’s two-run “duck snort.” Joe Mauer followed that up with an RBI single, forcing the Red Sox to play from behind yet again.</p>
<p><b>Trends to Watch</b>: Porcello gave up two more home runs in this contest, putting his season total at 11. Outside of his rookie year when he allowed 23, he has never given up more than 18 in a season.  He’s now on pace to give up just under 32 over 180 innings pitched. After four mediocre-to-bad starts to begin the year, Porcello had a nice run in the next four in which he had a 2.10 ERA. However, his last two, including this one, have been downright terrible. With a very solid track record in his previous six major league seasons, it’s hard to imagine he’s lost his ability at age 26, but he must improve in a hurry if this team is going anywhere this season.</p>
<p>On the other end of the power spectrum, Pedroia matched his seven-homer output from all of last year with two more bombs Wednesday. It was the second multi-home run game of the season for the second baseman, with the other coming on Opening Day, though he hadn’t hit one since May 2 coming into the game. It seems his power is returning as many predicted after overcoming the injuries that plagued him for the last couple seasons. Unfortunately, Pedroia’s laser show was not enough by itself to carry the offense.</p>
<p><b>Coming Next</b>: Following this sweep to the Twins, the Red Sox head down to Texas to take on the Rangers. Top pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez makes his major league debut for Boston tonight, so if nothing else, it’ll make for an intriguing glimpse into the future. Acquired for Andrew Miller last season, the lefty has taken off since joining the Red Sox system and is still just 22 years of age. Meanwhile, the offense will look to straighten things out against 24-year-old righty Nick Martinez, who has a 1.96 ERA but just a 4.9 K/9 rate on the season. Josh Hamilton also recently returned from injury for the Rangers after his tumultuous offseason.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Brad Rempel/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Will the Red Sox Regain Rule 5 Draft Loss Jason Garcia?</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/13/will-the-red-sox-regain-rule-5-draft-loss-jason-garcia/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2015 12:05:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Huegel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Garcia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rule 5 Draft]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=871</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What on earth are the Orioles thinking keeping Jason Garcia on their roster? ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Right-handed pitcher Jason Garcia started to get some attention in the minors last season after coming back from Tommy John surgery, and he reportedly wowed scouts with his stuff in the Fall Instructional League this offseason. His fastball was sitting mid-90s, and was said to touch triple digits at times. He looked so strong, in fact, that the Baltimore Orioles arranged for the Houston Astros to take him from the Red Sox organization with the fourth pick in the Rule 5 Draft this offseason so that they could acquire him for cash considerations.</p>
<p>The problem is that Garcia had never pitched above Low-A Greenville in the Red Sox system, and despite the strong raw stuff, had a reputation for not always knowing where it was going. The Red Sox took a chance leaving him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. The fact that he was young coming out of high school when the Red Sox originally drafted him at age 17, plus losing a year to Tommy John, set him up to be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft at a younger age and with less experience than most. In order to protect him, the Red Sox would have had to add him to the 40-man roster, which would have clogged a spot on it while also using his first option year. We’ve seen this work against pitchers who are added to the 40-man early, such as Drake Britton, who ended up designated for assignment in part because the team used up two of his options before he reach the majors.</p>
<p>So the Red Sox, figuring that the 35 2/3 innings he pitched at Greenville last year would not provide enough evaluation or confidence to select such an inexperienced player, left Garcia unprotected. But they obviously underestimated general manager Dan Duquette’s affinity for making Rule 5 selections. Then again, there were rumblings that Garcia could be selected based on the reports coming out of the Fall Instructional League, so perhaps, more accurately, the Red Sox front office did not believe he would stick with a major league team through the regular season, which is a condition of the draft in order to keep the player long-term.</p>
<blockquote><p>Garcia has the raw stuff that gets scouts excited without the overly impressive results that could lead a team to think he&#8217;d take off if put in the bullpen and told to let it fly.</p></blockquote>
<p>In some ways, Garcia fits the mold of a successful Rule 5 pick rather well. He has the raw stuff that gets scouts excited without the overly impressive results that could lead a team to think he&#8217;d take off if put in the bullpen and told to let it fly. On the other hand, usually you’re talking about a guy who has at least had a taste of Double-A, whereas Garcia most likely would have begun the season with High-A Salem (as a starter) if he was in the Red Sox organization. Making the jump from Low-A to the majors makes it an extremely daunting task.</p>
<p>More to the point, Garcia has struggled with control throughout his career, evidenced by his career 4.6 walks per nine rate in the minors. Garcia needed to refine both his control and command, and now he is attempting to refine those parts of his game under the bright lights. As you can imagine, it has made for some interesting results.</p>
<p>The talking points on his development have proven true in the majors, as he’s walked three more batters than he has struck out, leading to a 7.2 walk per nine rate over 13 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. He’s had just one clean outing over eight appearances, and walked at least two batters in three of them. Of the 246 pitches he’s thrown this season, only a little over half have gone for strikes. He walked four over 2 1/3 in his last appearance on May 10, but actually lowered his season ERA to 5.93 by giving up just one run. Don’t look at bad luck as a contributing cause, because if anything, he has been lucky to this point with a  BABIP at a low .205.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=53811083&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>This brings us to the most obvious question: Why are the Orioles working so hard to keep Garcia? He has entered games only in blowouts or losing situations, clearly showing that they are attempting to stash him away in the back of their bullpen. The team seems to think the upside is worth the decreased roster flexibility. His fastball has sat in the mid-90s as advertised, according to Brooks Baseball, but had very few swing-and-misses against anything he’s thrown, totaling just 15 whiffs out of those 246 pitches. Both his fastball and slider have also been very fly-ball-heavy, and a pitcher that neither induces whiffs nor ground balls is not usually a recipe for success.</p>
<p>However, that is not to tear down Garcia’s future in the league. There’s a reason players spend time developing in the minors, and there’s a reason Garcia had only made it to Greenville. He lost a year of development to injury. He has under 300 professional innings pitched, and most of that was as a teenager in the Rookie League, Lowell, and Greenville, prior to Tommy John surgery. He is still in the process of rediscovering his feel for pitching and getting comfortable with his reconstructed elbow. To make keeping Garcia on the roster all year worth it for the Orioles, you would think they see a future as a potential future closer or setup man. The problem is he may never have a chance to develop into such with his sporadic playing time and pressure to perform, rather than a focus development, every time on the mound.</p>
<p>It will be interesting to see if he is returned this season, how the Red Sox will handle him and where they will assign him. There’s a good chance the team would have liked to keep developing him in the rotation if not for the Rule 5 selection, a scenario under which he would have likely started the season in High-A Salem. But now that he has spent all this time in the bullpen, the guess here is they would send him to Double-A Portland to develop as a reliever. There have been cases of Rule 5 picks having trouble adjusting back to the minors when sent back to their original teams, but if handled correctly and given time to develop, he could be a nice bullpen piece for the Red Sox in the future. For his sake, if nothing else, the Orioles should pull the plug on this experiment and offer him back to Boston, where he has the best chance to reach his potential.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Fenway’s Future: Henry Owens, Manuel Margot and More</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/04/fenways-future-henry-owens-manuel-margot-and-more/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2015 11:43:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Huegel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fenway's Future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Henry Owens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manuel Margot]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pat Light]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ty Buttrey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=688</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Taking a deeper look at the early season successes and failures of Henry Owens, Pat Light, Manny Margot and  Ty Buttrey.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In this edition of Fenway&#8217;s Future, we&#8217;ll discuss Henry Owens&#8217; command issues, Pat Light&#8217;s resurgence, Manny Margot&#8217;s patience and more.</p>
<p><strong>Triple-A Pawtucket</strong>: <em>Henry Owens, LHP</em></p>
<p>Henry Owens has gotten off to a slow start at Pawtucket this year. Dominant for most of his minor league career, this is one of the first rough stretches since his up-and-down first season in the minors just out of high school. Over his last two seasons, he struck out 10.4 batters per nine, with ERAs under three across three levels. One concern early in his career was control, as he walked more than four an inning in his first two seasons in the system. However, last year he cut that rate to 3.3 walks per nine between Portland and Pawtucket. So far this year, that rate has spiked to 7.3 through his first four starts.</p>
<div style="width: 220px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img class="" src="http://sittingstill.smugmug.com/Spring-Training/Red-Sox-ST-March-22-2015/i-C2rw4QJ/0/L/20150322_9074-L.jpg" alt="" width="210" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Henry Owens has struggled with control early.</p></div>
<p>In his start last Wednesday, those control and command troubles were evident again. He walked just three, but one was to the leadoff hitter in the first that ended up scoring a run and another was to the number nine hitter on four pitches. He battled command within the zone on the evening, especially with the fastball, which sits in the range of 87-91 mph and needs to be located well in order for his plus changeup to play off of it. The changeup did live up to the billing though, as he made several hitters look silly on big whiffs against it.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most intriguing part of Owens’ night was the use of a slider for the first time in his career, starting this season. He said afterwards that he threw two in this particular outing, and it is clearly a raw pitch early in its development. It was in the high-70s in this outing, similar in speed to his changeup. With his curveball also generally coming in in the 70s, the slider may be more effective if he can throw it in the low-80s to complement the rest of his arsenal better. With a pitcher who can manipulate the ball like Owens, the pitch could develop quickly and become a strong component of his arsenal. On the other hand, it may end up as a show-me fourth pitch or scrapped altogether.</p>
<p><strong>Double-A Portland</strong>: <em>Pat Light, RHP</em></p>
<p>With a dearth of high-level talent currently in Portland, particularly in the lineup, Pat Light&#8217;s performance out of the bullpen has stood out. This is his first year being converted to the bullpen full time, and though there have been a couple bumps, the results have been extremely encouraging for the 2012 supplemental first-rounder who had a tough go of it in the minors as a starter. Since he was drafted scouts have been predicting an ultimate move to the bullpen, but the Red Sox like to keep pitchers in the rotation as long as possible to help develop their stuff. With the results he was posting as a starter though (4.83 ERA, 5.2 K/9 last season), it made sense to make the move now.</p>
<p>In his last three outings spanning 4 1/3 innings, he did not allow a hit and struck out seven, boosting his K/9 rate to an impressive 12.2 mark on the season. He has a 4.05 ERA overall, but only allowed runs in two of his seven appearances (three runs in each game) and has a 0.975 WHIP. Part of his success can be attributed to his use of the splitter, a pitch that he had all but shelved since college, but has been his main secondary out of the bullpen this year. Though his fastball is hard in the mid-90s, it can be on the straight side, and can be hit hard when not located well.</p>
<p><strong>High-A Salem</strong>: <em>Manuel Margot, CF</em></p>
<div style="width: 220px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img class="" src="http://sittingstill.smugmug.com/Spring-Training/Red-Sox-ST-March-4-2015/i-BdtnsTQ/0/L/20150304_7D_1118-L.jpg" alt="" width="210" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Manuel Margot struck out for first time this season Wednesday.</p></div>
<p>Margot struck out for the first time this season on Wednesday of last week. The 20-year-old center fielder had gone his first 16 games and 69 plate appearances without punching out prior to that. However, despite picking up his first two strikeouts this week, his season line now rests at .312/.368/.481 with 10 stolen bases on 12 attempts to go along with a homer and three triples. With the strong performance to start the season and tools to back it up, he seems to have solidified himself as the third-ranked prospect in the system, behind only Blake Swihart and Yoan Moncada. He is a true five-tool talent, with a high floor due to his strong center field defense, speed and athleticism. He also has the power in his bat to average perhaps around 15 home runs a year, and scouts like his overall knack for the game. He will look to improve upon his selectivity and plate approach, but he is well-ahead of the age curve at the High-A level, so that is to be expected. Margot&#8217;s name may come up more often in trade rumors with the strong performance, as he <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20150429_Boston_still_best_fit_for_Phillies__Cole_Hamels.html">already has in relation to Cole Hamels</a>. He could make an interesting piece for Philadelphia if they come off of their demands for Boston&#8217;s elite young, major league-ready talent.</p>
<p><strong>Low-A Greenville</strong>: <em>Ty Buttrey, RHP</em></p>
<p>Ty Buttrey received a promotion to Salem this week, and made his first High-A start on Sunday. Buttrey received an over-slot bonus as a high schooler in 2012, and had yet to live up to expectations. Last season, he got off to a late start due to injury, and missed time in June as well, but struggled in his 11 starts in Greenville, posting a 6.85 ERA and 1.804 WHIP, inflated by a 4.7 walk per nine rate. This season has been a complete turnaround though, as he’s lowered his WHIP and walk rate to 0.909 and 1.2, respectively, resulting in a 2.45 ERA over his first four starts. In the month of April, he was one of the most productive pitchers in the entire Red Sox system. He struck out seven batters over five hitless innings in his last start with Greenville before the promotion. In his first start for Salem on Sunday, Buttrey’s control troubles resurfaced as he walked six over five innings, including three in the third when he allowed the only three runs of the outing. An adjustment period is to be expected, though. The tall right-hander is projectable, but prior to this season results and scouting looks have not been overly impressive. He will look to build momentum towards fulfilling draft expectations this season.</p>
<p><em>Photos by Kelly O’Connor, <a class="twitter-timeline-link" title="http://sittingstill.smugmug.com" href="http://t.co/Bk3sp1xfaf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span class="js-display-url">sittingstill.smugmug.com</span></a></em></p>
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