Going Deep

You may not have heard this, but the end of this week is the non-waiver trade deadline. With the season is disrepair the Red Sox should be seen as sellers, although that term frightens people so the powers that be offer tempered comments like “we are preparing for the next great Red Sox team.” That is a fine sentiment, but it probably involves getting rid of a bunch of current players (i.e., selling). Shane Victorino was the first to go, traded to Anaheim where he will get to watch Mike Trout do Mike Trout things from left field and, probably, his reserved seat on the disabled list. More on SHANF below. Other players who could be moved, according to Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal, include Mike Napoli, Alejandro De Aza, Jackie Bradley Jr., Wade Miley and Junichi Tazawa. That is not exactly a murderer’s row of options there. And that is the problem the team faces. They are sellers without a whole lot of stuff that will bring a good return. While it is still the best course of action to move the pieces they can and take chances on B- or C-level prospects, it seems unlikely that Ben Cherington and company are going to be able to get some magic beans for their unproductive cows. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe did an excellent job tracking the Red Sox‘s history at the trade deadline, and found that they almost always do something, and when in the position they are currently in the standings the moves are motivated by improving next season’s club. So expect a move or two more over the rest of the week, and look forward to next year.

I would be remiss if I did not include some discussion of Pedro Martinez’s induction into the Hall of Fame. Pedro is a legend in Boston, among other places. His 1999 and 2000 seasons, a time when offense ruled the game, are two of the best pitching seasons in the history of the game. The Boston Globe’s coverage of Pedro’s call to the Hall over the last couple of weeks has been excellent. But this piece about his pitch repertoire, with graphics of his grips, pitch movement, and statistical trends, stands out as must read/see stuff. Pedro the pitcher is one thing, but perhaps equally impressive as his on-field performances are his efforts off the field to be a symbol of possibility for the Dominican Republic, and Latin America generally. At a time when we have a moronic, multi-million dollar radio host denigrating the intelligence of an entire nation in as casual a manner as possible, there was Pedro, standing on-stage in Cooperstown, proudly representing his country by wearing a jacket with Dominican Republic patches, completing a large section of his speech in Spanish, repeatedly thanking his country and its people for their ongoing love and support, and finishing by waving the Dominican flag with fellow countryman and Hall of Famer, Juan Marichal. Christopher Gasper of The Boston Globe has more on Pedro’s desire to be and position as an image of hope for so many. All told, Pedro is certainly an indelible figure in the history of the game.

If you want more Pedro Martinez coverage I recommend Baseball Prospectus’ celebration of him and the other members of the Hall Class of 2015.

Quick Hits

The “who is the ace of the rotation?” question has turned into a punchline as the season progresses, but the performance of Red Sox starters has been anything but amusing. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal digs deeper into how the Red Sox might get on the right path to finding an ace, explicitly examining comments made by Ben Cherington about how difficult it can be to do so.

As noted above, the Red Sox first move at the deadline was to trade oft-injured outfielder Shane Victorino to the Angels for Triple-A infielder Josh Rutledge. While Victorino has been mostly useless the past two seasons (63 games played, 0.4 WARP), he was undoubtedly a critical part of the stunning run to the 2013 World Series Championship; a time that he looks upon very fondly. Peter Abraham describes Victorino’s emotional final press conference in Boston for The Boston Globe.

With Victorino out of the mix, a space in the outfield was made available for players like Rusney Castillo, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Craig and, even Daniel Nava. The Red Sox have opted for their multi-million dollar Cuban, once again passing Bradley Jr. over for a chance at promotion, who, as Scott Lauber of the BostonHerald.com details, is having a tremendous season at Pawtucket.

On the day his buddy entered the Hall of Fame, David Ortiz was candid in talking about Pedro, calling him “the most unbelievable human being I have been around.” Ortiz then went out and had a wondrous night on the field, adding to an already strong resume for Hall of Fame consideration, something he admits has been on his mind of late.

Three Good Game Stories

Things reached a real nadir for the Red Sox last week, but then, as Adam Kurkjian of BostonHerald.com notes in his game story, the future core of Mookie Betts, Brock Holt and Xander Bogaerts came through with a winning sequence to break the slump.

Sunday was a big day for the Red Sox organization with Pedro Martinez entering the Hall of Fame, but, as Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com writes that, it was also a big day for the Red Sox on the field as David Ortiz mashed them to a win over the Tigers.

All the fun of Sunday was swept away on Monday by another brutal Joe Kelly outing, who gave up four runs in the first inning and had no rhythm, but tells Julian Benbow of The Boston Globe that he will continue to fight hard to establish himself as an effective pitcher.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox are getting to the end of that first stage, but the strange part is we don’t really have a handle on what that first stage has told us. This makes it difficult to know how they should handle the second stage. Boston sits last in the AL East, but only 6.5 games behind the first place Yankees. Then again, Boston’s run differential is -43. Then again, based on the track records of the players on the team, there’s reason to believe that figure doesn’t accurately represent the quality of the team going forward, only what they’ve done to date. You can already see the problem.

It’s not just idle speculation and fanboyism that leads someone to say the Red Sox still have a shot. Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs both publish team projections for the remaining games on the schedule. Both see the Red Sox as one of the best teams in the AL: FanGraphs has them in first outright and BP second to the Angels by a half game. But even so there are clearly a number of holes on the team, and a crunchy roster that doesn’t quite integrate as well as you’d like. Ben Cherington has talked about approaching the deadline not as a buyer or a seller, but as a team looking to improve itself long term. That makes sense, but it’s also a bit of a copout. What team doesn’t want to improve itself long term?

Short term, as in this season, the Red Sox have three main issues: they need to assemble a starting rotation, they need to find someone who can produce at first base, and they need a better bullpen. The problem is the way they approach those problems will vary depending on whether they are in a position to push toward the playoffs. For instance, you wouldn’t trade a significant piece to upgrade the bullpen while letting first base languish. Now, if there is a long term solution at first base COUGHTRADEEVERYTHINGFORGOLDSCHMIDTCOUGH then maybe you make that move and then if the market for relievers is insane you move on and try to patch from within or take a look again at the waiver deadline in a month. There are degrees here, for sure.

Then again, we’ve seen what straddling the line has looked like before. In 2014 Boston sold hard at the deadline, but they didn’t do it in a traditional vets-for-prospects type of way. They did deal Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez, and that deal has paid dividends already, but they also dealt arguably their two best starting pitchers in John Lackey and Jon Lester for players already on major leaguer rosters, i.e. not prospects. Not even a year has passed and already those deals look awful. You couldn’t give Allen Craig away (we know because the Red Sox tried) let alone use him as a piece to acquire John Lackey, and Joe Kelly is hilarious on Twitter and also in Triple-A. Oops. Yoenis Cespedes came back for Lester and this off-season, instead of holding on to Cespedes, Boston dealt him to Detroit for Rick Porcello after signing Hanley Ramirez.

The Lester and Lackey deals look rotten now, but was there anything intrinsically wrong with the thought process behind them?

All those deals look rotten now, but was there anything intrinsically wrong with the thought process behind them? Is continuing down that road wrong at its core? It’s difficult to say.  It seems that last year wasn’t a case of the Red Sox front office misevaluating players so much as playing the lottery on what the players they acquired would become (with the exception of Craig). You wouldn’t condemn Ben Cherington if Yoan Moncada failed to reach his potential, for example. The Red Sox looked at him, believed in his talent, and paid what it cost to acquire him. After that, you try your best, but if it doesn’t happen, what are you gonna do? The same scenario applies to Kelly and, to a lesser extent, a post-injury Craig. That they turned out badly doesn’t necessitate a bad pre-trade thought process. Cespedes was different in that he was a known quantity. They didn’t get any discount on him when they acquired him either. But Craig and Kelly were both available because their value was down. They were upside plays, an attempt to get better players than might normally would be available in such a deal by accepting the risks that acquiring those specific players required.

Those risks haven’t panned out and it seems reasonable to criticize the Red Sox front office for taking those risks in the first place. The Red Sox aren’t typically the kind of team that needs to take expensive risks when it comes to players. They can pay more to minimize risk, and indeed Cherington has done exactly that when it comes to free agent signings (Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley) and player extensions (Porcello). Perhaps that’s the lesson of the 2014 deadline: don’t accept damaged goods just because you get a better price. Instead, acquire the best players you can and let that be your legacy.

With the roster in its current state, it seems the Red Sox are set to make deals again this deadline. The difference is, unlike last season, it’s hard to see who Boston would part with. Craig, Napoli, Daniel Nava, and Kelly have no trade value. Clay Buchholz is hurt. Koji Uehara has another season at $9 million due, which at his age and with his injury history likely hurts his trade value significantly. Maybe trading Junichi Tarawa would make sense, except the Red Sox bullpen needs Junichi Tazawa next season. Unless Boston is willing to sell core-type players or really shake up the roster by dealing guys they just acquired last off-season, there doesn’t seem to be much on the roster or even in Triple-A that can help a contending team. Which is a weird statement to make about a roster that projection systems are still saying is the best in the American League.

So in the end, we’re back at something like a grey area, at least from an outsider’s perspective. Boston can be both a buyer and a seller in that they need players and are also not particularly close to a playoff spot at the moment. They can also not be either as there are reasons to see the team as not good enough to make the playoffs and with a roster full of undesirable players to teams with rosters good enough to make the playoffs. Weird season, huh? The only thing is to hope, whatever the true takeaway points were from last season’s deadline deals, that Ben Cherington and company took them away. The Red Sox need a win at the deadline. The season may be drawing to a close.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images