Top Play (WPA)

Seldom will you see something hit harder than Hanley’s three-run blast in the fifth inning. That was worth .225 WPA, and brought the Red Sox right back into the game. His second bomb, which you’ll see soon, came in second with a .216 mark. Aaron Hill’s RBI single later that inning was third on this list with a .150 WPA. The Red Sox dominated the top of the WPA chart in this game.

Bottom Play (WPA)

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Xander Bogaerts did the offense no favors in the sixth inning, as his strikeout with runners on second and third came with a -.087 WPA. The Red Sox tied it in that inning and had several chances to take the lead, but all of them came up short.

Key Moment

There are two.

Seems kind of familiar, don’t you think?

Trends to Watch

1. Man, it’s a hot one. Like seven inches from Hanley Ramirez. He had a .390 ISO coming into this game, and left it with nine home runs in September, with four bombs in his last four games alone. He sure called his second half surge:

Hanley Ramirez to @bradfo yesterday: “It’s going to be dangerous. It’s going to be homers, triples, and more homers. It’s going to get ugly”

— Ryan Hannable (@RyanHannable) June 16, 2016

2. Drew Pomeranz’s terrible September continues. He has yet to go six innings in any start, and just now cleared 10 innings pitched this month. He was acceptable for a while since coming over, but he’s giving up homers by the dozen and just getting knocked around. It could be fatigue, or it could just be a slump. Either way, it’s not looking good.

3. Mookie Betts making unbelievable catches. Here’s the first one, where he saved a run. Here’s the second, which I think he did just because he could.

Coming Next

The Red Sox travel to Baltimore for a four-game set, and it’ll kick off with Rick Porcello vs. Dylan Bundy. The team’s magic number is 11, and they could use a sweep to knock it down by a lot, but taking two games keeps the status quo as is between the two clubs.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA)

There wasn’t much competition for this one – Hanley Ramirez’s game-tying grand slam in the 5th inning had this locked up with a .438 WPA before the game even ended. With the Red Sox getting nothing from Steven Wright (again) and the offense sputtering (again), they finally got to Drew Smyly in the 5th, where Ramirez turned around the first pitch he saw – a high-but-not-that-high fastball over the plate – and crushed it way out of Fenway. Tie game. I think the most shocking part of all this is that the Red Sox finally scored several runs with the bases loaded.

Bottom Play (WPA)

In the top of the 6th inning, Tim Beckham tried to kickstart Tampa Bay’s response to Hanley’s salami, singling to lead off the inning. Then Robbie Ross induced a grounder out of Corey Dickerson that went straight to Dustin Pedroia, and ended in a twin killing. That double play was worth -.123 WPA, and was one of the two innings in which a Red Sox pitcher only saw three batters. The other was the 9th inning, because Craig Kimbrel is very good.

Key Moment

Having given up the lead late in the game once again, the Red Sox offense finally came through in the bottom of the 8th inning. Up to the plate came Aaron Hill, who hadn’t gotten a hit in his last 20 at-bats, so of course he’d be the one to knock in the go-ahead run. Unlike last night, Erasmo Ramirez couldn’t hold back the Red Sox offense, and they ended up scoring another run in that inning for good measure.

That saved the team from a potentially embarrassing situation, as no one knew who would pitch if they didn’t take the lead or win in the 8th or 9th, respectively. They had no relievers left.

Trends to Watch

1. Hanley Ramirez just had his best month of the year and might just be getting hotter. The infielder is hitting .306/.362/.600 – yes, that’s a 600 in the slugging – with three homers in his last five games. Sure, one of them might’ve been the shortest on record this year, but still, Hanley’s hammering away again.

2. Hoo boy. That bullpen couldn’t hold a lead if it was given a bucket. At this point, you just have to hope they improve, since this group isn’t collectively that bad, and Koji Uehara might return soon. But after the starter goes out, who do you turn to for the 7th inning? No one has been consistently good enough to be trusted as the first one out of the ‘pen, and even Kimbrel and Ziegler have looked shaky at times.

Coming Next

First, the Red Sox have their first off day in three weeks. They’ll use that to travel to the Bay Area, where they’ll take on the Oakland Athletics with David Price on the mound, and he’ll face off against Andrew Triggs.

Happy Moncada Eve, everyone.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

I think it’s fair to say that much of the hand-wringing would qualify as an overreaction. This is particularly true when you consider how bad and uncompetitive this team has been the last two years. On the other hand, it’s also fair to say the hand-wringing is perfectly natural given how the team has played lately. Even beyond how they’ve played, I think it’s fair to say this team doesn’t really look like a playoff contender.

Now, I don’t mean “look” as in aesthetically, in the sense of how they play baseball, though that could also be true. I simply mean the names on the roster don’t look like the names of players that should be playing on a playoff team. Much of this has come on the pitching staff, a unit that has relied on Sean O’Sullivan for multiple starts. Additionally, the bench has been something close to depressing for some time now. This isn’t really due to poor management, but rather a rash of injuries. There’s not much one can do about that. Still, this lack of depthhas led to Josh Rutledge and Marco Hernandez playing significant roles at times. I like both players — Hernandez in particular — but they should not be earning significant at-bats in 2016. On top of that, guys like Ryan LaMarre, Deven Marrero and Mike Miller have simply gotten playing time; it should go without saying that playoff teams tend to avoid relying on players of this caliber.

It’s not the end of the world, though. We may think that playoff teams avoid these players, but they don’t. The key is just not relying on them for too long, and that’s something Dave Dombrowski has already addressed. Boston’s President of Baseball Operations went on a little bit of a trading spree last week, acquiring bullpen and bench depth. It all started with the addition of Aaron Hill, who could prove to be the most valuable add of the new trio. He instantly solidifies the bench. Even on days in which he starts — it appears he may form a platoon at third base with Travis Shaw — the best player on the bench is now light years ahead of guys like Rutledge and Hernandez. Hill gives the bench talent and versatility. He’s a solid hitter, with a TAv of .286 in his time with Milwaukee and plenty of above-average seasons before that. He can also play every infield position, and will probably at least be tested in left field.

In addition to Hill, the Red Sox made a minor trade in which they dealt for Michael Martinez for cash. To put it bluntly, Martinez is not the kind of upgrade that Hill is. Instead, he’s simply another Hernandez, who is a below-average hitter but one who can hold his own while playing all over the diamond. This may seem like a pointless move, but as we’ve seen more depth is better depth, even if the talent doesn’t work out that way.

Consider the scenario in which an infielder gets hurt — whether that be Hernandez or a starter. That means someone like Miller or Marrero is suddenly thrust into the top backup role, getting more time than anyone wants. Martinez simply adds more roadblock to that happening, which is subtly important for the grind of a baseball season.

Finally, the bench has gotten deeper with Bryce Brentz. Of course, the outfielder is not a new addition who came over in the form of a trade but is rather a long-time prospect who had seemingly topped out in the upper-levels of the farm system. This season was likely the 27-year-old’s final chance to make it as a big leaguer, and he’s certainly making the most of it.

Of course, we’re only talking about 40 plate appearances, so things could change soon. In fact, it might even be likely that things change soon. In the meantime, though, Brentz has bought the Red Sox time. He’s on the short end of the platoon, and he doesn’t figure to play that role all year. Chris Young is still expected to return at some point, and Brentz has shown the ability to keep Young’s spot warm in the meantime. This is important not only because Boston doesn’t have to try to squeeze value out of Rusney Castillo again or play LaMarre, but also because he can save them prospects. Instead of having to throw prospects to fill in the outfield hole, Dombrowski can now comfortably save his young players to deal for the hole in the rotation.

Despite all the hand-wringing, the Red Sox find themselves in a solid position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Obviously, there’s still a lot of work to do, as the second half gets underway this weekend. The season’s grind necessitates depth, something the Red Sox have learned the hard way this year.

Luckily, Dombrowski recognized the issue and reinforced the bench with some key moves. He’s also benefiting from a modest emergence from Brentz. The jury is still out on whether this Red Sox team is “for real,” but at least we’ll be seeing more players who feel like they belong on a team in this position. Of course, we’ll just find something else to worry about, now.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

No one would say the hitting’s been a problem, as it’s the one thing keeping the team afloat. But what about the bench players? They’re not a particularly inspiring group, but they’re not main cogs of the run-scoring machine the Red Sox run out there every day. You could definitely fault them as a whole for being pretty terrible, though.

On Opening Day, the Red Sox began the season in Cleveland with a bench that included Ryan Hanigan, Pablo Sandoval, Chris Young, and Rusney Castillo. While benches aren’t exactly supposed to be imposing, this one certainly wasn’t at first. Chris Young is the one good name here, and he’s currently on the disabled list after pulling a hamstring. Sandoval’s shoulder ended up being a lot worse than we thought, and he was done for the year. Rusney Castillo has been so bad in both Triple-A Pawtucket and the big league club that he’s since been removed from the 40-man roster. Hanigan’s a backup, but even he was sidelined by a neck strain, and catching Steven Wright hasn’t helped his defensive metrics in any way.

So, next one(s) up, right? Here comes Christian Vazquez, who clubbed a home run I can only describe as immensely satisfying to watch. The clean sound off the bat, the arc, the – well, everything.

As great as that dinger was, it didn’t take long for Vazquez to revert back to his old ways of simply not hitting. The thing is, you accept that if he could play some of his trademark phenomenal defense, right? He didn’t have that either. After a June that saw Vazquez hit .189/.246/.226, he was sent to Pawtucket, and Sandy Leon was called up.

Then Leon caught fire, and in just 60 PA, he amassed 1.1 WARP. Catchers, man. Apart from Young, Leon might be the best guy here in terms of contributing to the 2016 team.

I’d talk about Blake Swihart with the rest of the backstops, but he was a catcher for all of a month. Swihart was sent back down to Triple-A to learn how to play left field, as Brock Holt had one good week and didn’t really do much after that. Come May, it turned out Holt was also playing through concussion symptoms. So Swihart gets installed as the left-handed platoon partner in LF, and promptly gets injured while playing a position he had all of a few months worth of experience with. Another bench player bites the dust, albeit an out-of-position one.

“But Brett,” you argue, “catcher depth is going to have some very steep fall-off in production after the starter!” And yes, that’s true. The thing is, all the guys who haven’t been backup catchers on the Red Sox’s bench have collectively been just as bad.

Of the infielders, Marco Hernandez has promise, but that’s about all you can say for whomever’s graced the Red Sox bench over the last couple months. Josh Rutledge was doing okay filling in here and there, but knee tendinitis has sidelined him, forcing the Red Sox to rely on Deven Marrero and Mike Miller – yeah, that was my reaction too – to help put a band-aid on a bullet wound.

The outfielders are in the same spot. Chris Young’s pulled hammy opened the door for Bryce Brentz, who has done well early on, but you’re not going to be sold on a guy who has a 25% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. Ryan LaMarre has appeared, and then disappeared, kinda like this pitch:

RYAN LAMARRE pic.twitter.com/Pz7n1gCMXa

— Joon Lee (@iamjoonlee) June 21, 2016

Yeah. That’s what the Red Sox have been dealing with.

So what’s been the point of me listing off all the failings of guys of which the majority shouldn’t be starting in the first place? Well, it’s because this is starting to become an issue as bad as the starting pitching. It’s just not as evident or instantly noticeable.

The 2016 Red Sox are being propelled on the strength of the hitting of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and David Ortiz, with some help thrown in by the likes of Dustin Pedroia and Travis Shaw. But man, does it ever drop off after that. Hanley Ramirez has been okay, sure, but who do you turn to when he can’t buy a hit and Travis Shaw starts regressing from hitting .350 for two months? You turn to the bench.

This time, there was nothing on the bench to shore up whatever the Red Sox lacked. Combined with a pitching staff that got worse at the worst time, the Red Sox trudged through a 10-16 June, and the left field situation got so bad that people started wondering if Andrew Benintendi could work out in a call-up to the majors from Double-A Portland.

Benches, in a vacuum, aren’t supposed to be good. I get that. The players aren’t starting because they’re not good enough to do so, and we weren’t going to see something like 2013 where guys like Mike Carp and Jonny Gomes annihilated everything they saw. But the Sox, with the resources they have, should’ve done better.

Thankfully, Dave Dombrowski’s taking steps to actually fix all this, trading for Aaron Hill, who was – relative to the Sox bench – smacking the hell out of the ball in Milwaukee. It’s a start. They might just have to wait for guys to come back off the DL for more help.

One can only hope the regulars keep doing what they’re doing, since the Red Sox can’t really afford for them to do much else. That’s the situation they’ve ended up in after the first half, and it’s not going away anytime soon.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

So the Red Sox are going for it. Like really going for it, and that deal plus that thought process makes an argument for further trades. We knew the Red Sox needed starting pitching before the Hill trade and now they’ve dealt away Aaron Wilkerson, a Triple-A starter widely thought of as a possibility to join the major league rotation, so that need is that much stronger. It’s undeniable the Red Sox need a better starter, maybe even two better starters if Eduardo Rodriguez isn’t going to help this season. The problem is finding them. They don’t seem to exist out on the market, so instead, Dombrowski should focus on improving the team in a different way: fix left field.

But left field isn’t broken! No, it’s not, but it sort of is. The Red Sox have received good production from left field so far this season, which is strange because if you look at the players they’ve used so far, that might surprise you. To date the most plate appearances have been taken by Brock Holt, who isn’t what you’d call an ideal left fielder. He’s been fine out there for the most part, but when Holt is starting at a position it prevents him from roving around and utilizing the vast array of skills he possesses to the team’s highest and best benefit. Put it this way. Using Holt as a starting left fielder turns an asset into a mediocre left fielder.

Using Holt as a starting left fielder turns an asset into a mediocre left fielder.

So the Red Sox probably need to find someone else. Chris Young was fantastic against both lefties and, bizarrely, against righties this season. Maybe that will continue when he comes back from the Disabled List, but considering he has 5,000 plate appearances in his career that say he’s good at hitting lefties but lousy at hitting righties, it’s probably not best to bet on Chris Young hitting like Chris Young against lefties against righties (got that?) going forward. After Young, Blake Swihart (injured), Rusney Castillo (Triple-A), Ryan LaMarre (DFA’d), and Bryce Brentz (place holder) have played there. None of those guys should be starting in left field on a playoff team.

The team has a .768 OPS from their left fielders this season, and that’s 12th in baseball, which is pretty good. But, sad emoji, that’s likely unrepeatable with the talent they have on-hand in the second half of the season. Brentz has hit since getting called up, something he’s not done in Triple-A, and likely won’t continue to do in the majors with more at-bats. Like Holt, asking Young to start every day is probably asking for failure. So it seems a safe bet that over the second half of the season the Red Sox will experience a downturn in production from left field if they do not make any changes to their current personnel. The Red Sox need a new, better, regular left fielder.

However, they need pitching more. And last year’s first round draft pick, Andrew Beintendi, looks like the real deal in Double-A so far and there’s real hope he can be the long-term solution in left field for the Red Sox as soon as next season, or, maybe more realistically, the one after. They don’t want to acquire a Ryan Braun who would then block Benintendi, or a similar player who would have a long term deal. They also need pitching badly. Did I mention that? They need pitching very badly.

Thing is, there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of impact starting pitching available on the trade market, and that means if a good pitcher is going to come to Boston, he’s going to need to be pried out of his current home. You know those “make me move” offers you see sometimes on real estate websites. Dombrowski is going to have to make some GM an offer he can’t refuse and that offer is almost certainly not going to be a good one for the Red Sox.

Perhaps making minor moves to prop up the team’s starting pitching depth makes sense if it comes with a bigger, better move at a different position of need, like say, left field.

Maybe there is a deal to be had that doesn’t cripple the organization. Maybe there’s something out there that makes sense given all the factors at play. If so I’m sure Dombrowski will find it, but if not, and [spoiler!] I suspect not, perhaps making minor moves to prop up the team’s starting pitching depth makes sense if it comes with a bigger, better move at a different position of need, like say, left field.

The name that springs to mind here is Carlos Gonzalez. He’s enjoying a strong season in Colorado, hitting .319/.368/.556 with 18 homers. The home/road splits are, as always with Rockies players, daunting, but there’s reason to believe once the player gets out of the thin Colorado air entirely he’ll get more used to it and the numbers will positively reflect that. Gonzalez has a year after this season left on his deal and Boston could handle the $20 million hit in 2017. He could be kept to win next year or dealt after this season to help replenish the hit to the minors his acquisition would make. They could make that decision based on their desire to go with Benintendi, or to give him more seasoning in the minors, but ether way it gives the team flexibility and depth in case of injury as well as a serious upgrade in left field. Gonzalez would likely cost a good prospect, but the Red Sox have those to give in the service of winning with David Ortiz in 2016.

Another name to throw out there is Jay Bruce. Bruce is enjoying nice bounce-back season after a few years in the proverbial wilderness, hitting .268/.317/.546 with 18 homers for sad-sack Cincinnati. Bruce isn’t quite the hitter or fielder Gonzalez is, but he’s cheaper (the remainder of $12.5 million this season and a team option for $13 million in 2017) and would likely not cost as much to acquire. Both Bruce and Gonzalez are left handed so, should it be necessary to give them a day off, Chris Young could perfectly spell them against a left-hander now and again.

The Red Sox could get on alright without either of these or countless other guys, but the issue is bang for the buck. A good starter is going to cost a tremendous amount in this trade market, but an upgrade in left field could be as impactful and a lot cheaper. Cheaper doesn’t just mean more money for the team, it means holding on to more and better prospects, something that will help the team both now as they try to win with David Ortiz, and as they move into the post-Ortiz era. So win now, Dave Dombrowski. And yes the Red Sox badly need starting pitching, but mostly they need increased production. A 12-10 win is, after all, still a win.

Photo by Ron Chenoy/USA Today Sports Images