But this isn’t a simple case of passing the buck. The 2018-19 off-season promises perhaps the biggest free agent class ever. It’s such a promising offseason that I can remember hearing about it three or four years ago, which, when you think about it, is ridiculous. Still, there’s a reason for the extreme foresight. In case you’re unaware of the specifics of this class, here is a list of players who will hit the open market after this upcoming season.

• Josh Donaldson
• Charlie Blackmon
• Drew Pomeranz
• Elvis Andrus
• Brian Dozier
• Andrew Miller
• Craig Kimbrel
• A.J. Pollock
• Daniel Murphy
• Marwin Gonzalez
• Gio Gonzalez
• Andrew McCutchen
• Nelson Cruz
• Zach Britton
• Cody Allen
• Adam Jones

Pretty nuts, right? And here’s the part about it that is crazy, bizarro, extreme, Vince-McMahon-rebooting-the-XFL-level nuts: that’s not really the list. Sure, all those guys are going to be free agents after the 2018 season, but I didn’t include three guys of particular note. I’m talking about Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Clayton Kershaw. Those three guys are the reason people have been talking about this free agent class for half a decade.

Those are some huge names, some huge players. The thing is, in the case of the first two, both will be 26 years old in 2019 — the first year of their new contracts. Not since Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers as a 25-year-old-to be in 2001 have we seen a player with this level of talent enter the market at such a young age. This free agent class has two of those guys. Oh, and also the best pitcher since Pedro Martinez in Kershaw. It’s truly a stacked class, and teams have been planning for it since fans became aware of it, or maybe even before that.

We’re 400 words into this thing and I haven’t yet brought up the Boston Red Sox which is odd since this is a Boston Red Sox website. Like every other team, the Red Sox are aware of this class of players. Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening. The total salary expenditure that teams must be below is $197 million. After that, penalties aplenty are levied, which increase each season teams that are over. The Red Sox kept below the luxury tax threshold last season, meaning if they go over this season the penalties aren’t too steep.

Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening.

With arbitration raises though last season’s payroll has gone up even though the roster is basically the same, putting the Red Sox over the threshold in 2018. Signing Bryce Harper or Clayton Kershaw would certainly put the Sox over again in 2019 and, considering they’d likely have to put a huge AAV towards doing so, it would contribute to putting them over again in 2020 as well. Should the Red Sox go far over they could lose their first round draft pick in addition to paying a ton of extra money as a tax for spending so much (seriously, players union, WTF?).

The effect of this on the Red Sox is to incentivize them to spend below the tax threshold. The Red Sox already have $92 million locked up in player salaries for the 2019 season, and that’s for just four guys in David Price, Dustin Pedroia, Rick Porcello, and Mitch Moreland. (They’re paying $18.45 million to a fifth in Pablo Sandoval but he’s no longer on the team.) Things get tighter if the Red Sox do shell out another $100+ million deal for J.D. Martinez or another free agent this offseason. That would likely put the Sox over the tax threshold for a second consecutive season, even without signing Harper or another big name from next off-season’s free agent class.

Now, the Red Sox could say, “Screw it, we’re going to put the best team on the field regardless of the luxury tax limit.” But that seems unlikely. The team has spent liberally over the years since John Henry bought them back in 2002, and there’s little reason to expect that not to continue, but asking the team to pay millions for the privilege of paying millions years into the future seems unlikely.

The problem as it stands now is that the team doesn’t have minor league talent that can step in for veterans on expiring contracts, meaning if everything else stays as is, free agents will have to replace free agents. For example, Rick Porcello’s deal is up after the 2019 season which sounds great. Hooray! The Red Sox will have $21 million to use. Except what do you think the going rate for a decent starting pitcher will be in two seasons? I’m guessing it’s going to be a lot, maybe something around $21 million a year. And the Red Sox will also have to replace (or re-sign) Chris Sale and they’ll have already replaced (or re-signed) Drew Pomeranz the season before, likely requiring more money. Boston’s dollars aren’t endless is the point, and guys on cheap deals can’t all be replaced at the top of the market.

One way out for the Red Sox is if David Price opts out of his contract after the 2018 season. If he does, the Red Sox are off the hook for the remaining four years, $127 million. That money could be spent directly on a Kershaw or, probably more likely, Sale.

While the Red Sox could make a run at Kershaw, and damn the luxury tax, the other two generational talents are less likely to sign in Boston. Both Harper and Machado play positions the Red Sox already have covered for the significant future. Machado plays third base where the Red Sox are hoping Rafael Devers will be for the next six seasons. Sure Boston could move him to first or deal him and try to add Machado, but doing that is a significant step towards the luxury tax threshold. Harper seems the more realistic of the two at least in terms of fit, as one of Jackie Bradley or Andrew Benintendi could be moved to make room. And that would be fine. Harper is that good. But the thing is the Red Sox don’t have to do that. They don’t have a hole at third or a hole in the outfield corners, which means they’d be both replacing a good player and doing so by adding one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. Considering their place against the cap (we’re just going to call it what it is, a soft salary cap), doing that seems unlikely.

You never rule it out though. This is the Red Sox. This is Dave Dombrowski. These are great, great players. You never rule it out. But right now, where the Red Sox are, with David Price’s deal on the books until it isn’t, and $18.5 million due to Pablo Sandoval this coming season and the one after it, the arbitration raises coming due, and the lot, it doesn’t seem like the right time for the Red Sox to make a huge addition. All of which means they may just sit out the greatest free agent market of all time.

Or, you know, not.

Then Betts tore up spring training, and those expectations skyrocketed. Soon, Mookie Mania took Boston (technically Fort Myers) by storm. He hit .429/.467/.750 in 19 Grapefruit League games, and began drawing comparisons to some of the game’s best players before the start of his first full major league season. Perhaps the most shocking similarity he drew came from teammate Shane Victorino, who compared Betts to Pirates’ center fielder Andrew McCutchen.

Yes, the Andrew McCutchen. He of a career 35.4 WARP, five All-Star selections and an MVP award. The one who’s helped turned the Pittsburgh from a moribund franchise to an annual postseason contender. A player with the perfect mix of speed, power and on-base ability. Arguably the best center fielder in the National League over the last half-decade.

Yup, that guy.

Those were the kind of expectations bestowed upon Betts heading into his first full season. Sure, they were a bit unrealistic, but exciting for Red Sox fans, to say the least.

So, as Betts’ first full season nears its end, it’s a fair time to ask a very basic question — did Betts live up to the hype in year one? He certainly had his share of exciting moments, none more thrilling than his double steal against the Nationals during the home opener. But he also experienced growing pains, struggling at the plate through most of April and May.

Looking at the numbers, the final product has been good. He’s sported a .280 true average, a .332 wOBA and a 107 wRC+ — not bad for a 22-year-old. Defensively, he’s tied for fourth among qualified center fielders in DRS (10) and 10th in UZR/150 (5.4). That’s even more impressive given he’s a recently converted second baseman.

But does that count as living up to the hype? In order to answer that, we compared Betts’ first full-season numbers to some of the best veteran center fielders in baseball, because with a player his age, it’s less about what he can do now and more about what he can sustain over a long career. Those comparables paint a much clearer picture of the kind of player Betts could be.

Since the bar was set at McCutchen, we started there. Here’s how it shakes out.

Betts: .280 TAv; .179 ISO; .332 wOBA; 107 wRC+
McCutchen (2009): .324 TAv; .185 ISO; .363 wOBA; 122 wRC+

Clearly Betts’ second-year production doesn’t near that of McCutchen’s, so that puts Victorino’s hyperbolic claims to rest. Does that mean Betts didn’t meet expectations? If you look at it that way, yes. But given how unrealistic it was to compare the two to begin with, it’s unfair to judge Betts strictly off that comparison.

Keeping that in mind, we looked a pair of top-tier center fielders who sit a notch below McCutchen. In this case we’re talking about AL East foes Adam Jones and Brett Gardner, both whom Betts’ skillset seems more realistically comparable.

Betts: .280 TAv; .179 ISO; .332 wOBA; 107 wRC+
Jones (2008): .245 TAv; .130 ISO; .312 wOBA; 84 wRC+
Gardner (2009): .254 TAv; .109 ISO; .325 wOBA; 91 wRC+

If Betts’ career turns out to be anything like Jones’ or Gardner’s, the Red Sox have plenty of reason to be excited. Neither one of these players had spectacular rookie seasons — in fact, Betts’ was by far the better of the three. However, both players developed into All-Stars. One could argue Jones has been the second-best center fielder in the AL since Mike Trout’s been in the league, combining speed, contact and power, as well as a solid glove, to lead the Orioles most nights. At 5-foot-9, 155 pounds, Betts will probably never be the 30-home run hitter Jones is, but the early career numbers suggest he can match him in most other areas.

Gardner seems to be the most modest comparison one can make. He’s never been among the elite players in baseball, but he’s been consistent throughout his career, steadily providing the Yankees with reliable numbers each season. Gardner was also 26 years old as a rookie. Betts’ career is off to a much faster start and it shouldn’t be long before he surpasses Gardner’s overall production.

There’s much to like about those two comparisons alone. If those numbers tell us anything, it’s that Betts is on his way to becoming an All-Star-caliber player. That’s a great sign for Betts and an even better sign for the Red Sox. Whether or not Betts lived up to the hype is open for interpretation, but his 2015 production at least justifies its existence.

That being said, Betts efforts this season certainly don’t guarantee future success. Many major leaguers failed to build upon strong first full seasons. Some even see their production slip in the following years. Two current big league center fielders who had similar success to Betts at first but who offer cautionary tales are Cameron Maybin and Austin Jackson. Both players were at one point considered top-level prospects in the Tigers organization — the fact that both were eventually traded by Dave Dombrowski is mere coincidence — but failed to live up to the billing despite promising rookie years.

Here’s what those numbers looked like.

Betts: .280 TAv; .179 ISO; .332 wOBA; 107 wRC+
Maybin (2011): .270 TAv; .130 ISO; .316 wOBA; 105 wRC+
Jackson (2010): .261 TAv; .107 ISO; .329 wOBA; 101 wRC+

Maybin has battled injuries and inconsistency since that season, seeing a dip in performance in the three following years. This season, however, has been his best. Maybin owns a .271 TAv in 2015 with a .319 wOBA and a 101 wRC+. At 28 years, perhaps his career is making a turn for the better. But even so, this doesn’t near what Boston is hoping for out of Betts. Even Jackson, who has seen his numbers fluctuate since his rookie campaign — he owns a .255 TAv this year — doesn’t provide hope for what Betts could be.

It’s hard to judge a player’s career off one season. But Betts should finish this year encouraged. It’s impractical at this point to gauge what kind of player he’ll be or who his career will emulate. However, the Red Sox went into the season excited about Betts. They should leave the year feeling the same way.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images