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	<title>Boston &#187; Adrian Gonzalez</title>
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		<title>Giancarlo Redux</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/11/giancarlo-redux/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/11/giancarlo-redux/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Aug 2017 13:00:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matthew Kory]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Benintendi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bryce Harper]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Ortiz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Giancarlo Stanton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jackie Bradley Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manny Machado]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mookie Betts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=24871</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Time to jump back on that Stanton trade bandwagon.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This probably seems like jumping the gun on an off-season nobody in Boston is focused on, so for that I apologize straight away. But, you see, in this cutthroat business of internet baseball writing, if I don’t write this piece now &#8211; I mean right this damn instant &#8211; Grant Brisbee will write it and, let’s both be honest about this: he’ll do a much better job than I will. So my choices are write it months ahead of time, think up something different which we both know will be another piece about the minor tweaks Matt Barnes made to his delivery, or get shamed. So my hands are kinda tied on this one. I’m sorry.</p>
<p>One thing that makes the Red Sox media unique is the collective focus on specific players, as in specific players who don’t play for the Red Sox. You may recall the obsession, years before he ever became a Red Sox, of Adrian Gonzalez. It was like the Globe, the Herald, Over The Monster, fans all over New England, and everybody in Red Sox nation pretty much went, “We HAVE to get that guy.” For a while that same kinda it’ll-happen-eventually focus was directed at Giancarlo Stanton as well. It made sense because Stanton fit a similar mold. Both players were/are fantastic. But both were, at the time, under-paid, young superstars on garbage teams going nowhere, and both filled big holes on the Red Sox. The obsession with Stanton ended about three years ago though. In fact, I can pinpoint the day. It was November 19, 2014, the day the Marlins gave Stanton a 13 year, $325 million contract and that pretty much stopped the articles and the drooling on talk radio. Stanton was staying in Miami. Drat.</p>
<p>At the same time in Boston, the Red Sox assembled one of the best young outfields in baseball. Jackie Bradley and Mookie Betts have been joined by Andrew Benintendi and, [counts] one-two-three, that’s a full outfield. So, sadly, that closes the door to acquiring Stanton and his beautiful, prodigious home run swing on both sides.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C461g5Ls-I4" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>But [<em>grabs crowbar</em>] how about we jerk that sucker back open again, eh? Yes, this is one of THOSE columns, the kind you thought you were done with, the kind that basically says over and over and over in 20 different ways why and how the Red Sox should/could trade for Giancarlo Stanton. Again, I’m sorry, but you know I gotta beat Brisbee on this, so no time like the present!</p>
<p>A couple of things have happened that have shoved this old door back open again. The first is that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has decided he’s sufficiently ruined baseball in south Florida and it’s time to move on to ruining other stuff. Lollipops, perhaps, or love seats. Maybe goats. Who knows what is next project will be or how he will ruin it, but that’s outside the purview of this column. What inside the purview of this column is that Loria, the guy who signed off on Stanton’s massive contract and who has a violent hatred of lollipops and medium sized living room furniture, is headed out the door, and getting the huge financial commitment to Stanton off the Marlins’ books might help facilitate a sale.</p>
<p>Stanton is only in year three of his deal but the Marlins are, again, terrible. Since Stanton signed the deal amidst much fanfare and promises from the top brass (read: Loria) that the Marlins would do their damnedest to be competitive, the team has gone 203-233, and there’s no particular reason to think things will get much better any time soon. So the Marlins would probably like to deal Stanton and Stanton might not mind being traded away, depending on where he was headed.</p>
<blockquote><p>Stanton hit his 39th homer Thursday night, a number which leads the league. Stanton, by himself, has 35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team.</p></blockquote>
<p>At first glance though, you might not think the Red Sox would be a team that would need Stanton. Boston’s outfield is full, you remember, with very good young players. Let’s get back to the outfield though. First, this: David Ortiz retired after the 2016 season. That 2016 team hit 208 homers, good for ninth in baseball. This season the Red Sox have had a much harder time hitting the ball over the wall. As of this writing they have 116 long balls, good for 27th in baseball. They need someone to hit some damn dingers. Stanton <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/stantons-mammoth-two-run-homer/c-1710602083?tid=6479266" target="_blank">hit his 39th homer</a> Thursday night, a number which leads the league. Stanton, by himself, has 35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team. I’m going to write that sentence again. Stanton, by himself, has <em>35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team</em>.</p>
<p>Stanton isn’t just a home run hitter though. He walks, he hits doubles and singles, and he gets on base (.369 this season). He’s the middle of the order guy the Red Sox had for 14 years in Boston, but don’t have anymore. Bluntly, he’s what this lineup lacks.</p>
<p>Of course, every team wants Stanton, but that’s the thing because now that he’s not making the league minimum anymore, not every team can take him. Now teams must find a way to deal with his salary and that’s not something most teams can handle doing. But the Red Sox can.</p>
<p>Here’s the secret though. Right now Stanton’s deal is an albatross, a massive hit that most teams just can’t afford. But really, secretly, it isn’t! In two years, players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will reach the free agent market and what they get will dwarf the $32 million Stanton will earn in the most expensive seasons of his deal. Last off-season free agents made about $8 million a win. In a year it’ll be more. It keeps going up, and when Harper and the rest reach free agency, we’ll likely be talking about even more. At this rate Stanton will reach about six wins in 2017. At $32 million, that’s $5.3 million a win. Of course Stanton isn’t making $32 million this year and he won’t make that next year either. He won’t make that much until 2023 when wins will probably we worth about $32 million a piece on the market.</p>
<p>Stanton might not reach six wins each season (this would be the third time in six full seasons he’s done it) and he’s had some injury issues so the team would have to believe he could stay healthy. But Stanton will be just 28 next season. The potential for a middle-of-the-order bat for the next decade and at prices below those on the free agent market is there. Or, if Harper and Machado truly break the bank in two off-seasons, perhaps Stanton opts out of his deal and the Red Sox get him for just the three years and $77 million between now and then. That is not bad and you have to think that, given the structure of the deal (small money before the opt-out, huge money after), that’s exactly what Loria was banking on happening.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OThxxwSYK-g" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>Where would Stanton fit on the Red Sox and how much would it take to get him? Easy question and hard question. Easy question: anywhere he wants! Stanton is 27 and he’s an outfielder so he’d fit in the outfield, either left or right field depending (hopefully left). But there’s no room in the Red Sox outfield, right? Well (harder question) trading for Stanton will cost something so it would make sense for Boston to deal one of their starting outfielders for him. Clearly it wouldn’t be Mookie Betts, but depending on the financial situation (i.e. how much money Miami pays of Stanton’s deal, if any) it might make sense to deal either Benintendi (I know, I know) or, more likely, Jackie Bradley with Benintendi going to right field and Betts moving to center. The Red Sox don’t seem to be all in on Bradley despite his amazing defense and occasional MVP impressions at the plate so perhaps that’s a good starting point.</p>
<p>It would be a complicated deal, what with all Stanton’s money, Stanton’s no-trade clause, and the uncertainty of his opt-out following the 2020 season. It’s all very complex and honestly I have no idea how to sort it all out. I just know that the Marlins would love to be rid of Stanton’s money, Stanton would probably love to be on a winning team, and the Red Sox would love to have someone step into the middle of their lineup and fill the David Ortiz-sized hole there. That’s a lot of incentive to make something happen. I’ll let the professionals work it out from there. First though, let me turn on this old rusty Stanton Signal (Chad Finn will be busting through that door any second now) and email Grant Brisbee that he’s gonna have to come up with another topic for Monday.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Jerome Miron &#8211; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Money Makes Margins</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/24/money-makes-margins/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/24/money-makes-margins/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Jul 2017 13:00:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brett Cowett]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carl Crawford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Archer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daisuke Matsuzaka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jed Lowrie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Beckett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pablo Sandoval]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=23924</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Money is good, yes, but what does it do for the team?]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It wasn&#8217;t too long ago that the Red Sox, needing to shed themselves of several mediocre third basemen, designated Pablo Sandoval for assignment. The five-year, $95 million deal barely got past the halfway point before the Red Sox ate over $40 million to cut him. You don&#8217;t need me to go into detail on how horrible that transaction was. It was even <em>backloaded.</em> That deal alone was pretty damning for Ben Cherington, and he was fired eight months later after the 2015 squad crashed and burned. It was a huge mistake, and that might be oversimplifying it a little bit.</p>
<p>But there&#8217;s good news, everyone! The Red Sox, if you haven&#8217;t heard, have lots and lots of money. $95 million spread out over half a decade isn&#8217;t all that much in the grand scheme of things to this ball club. In addition to a lucrative farm system that has recently developed some ready-made stars, the Red Sox profit from a massive fanbase and repeated successes to have one of the largest payrolls in baseball, one that rubs shoulders with the luxury tax threshold from time to time. This all might seem like me reciting things you already know in a slightly condescending tone, but I promise I&#8217;m going somewhere with this.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EdBo06CUqxw" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>Think of all the big, awful contracts the Red Sox have had since the beginning of the decade. Carl Crawford, obviously. Josh Beckett&#8217;s extension is a plausible one. Daisuke Matsuzaka&#8217;s posting and deal were pretty bad. Hell, if you wanted to be really petty, you could say Julio Lugo&#8217;s four-year, $36 million deal was big and terrible due to the player they offered it to, and you&#8217;d have some compelling arguments. Looking back on those deals, could you honestly say any one of them crippled the short- or long-term future of the Red Sox? Probably not. Definitely not, if you consider the state of the payroll in 2017.</p>
<p>The Red Sox have effectively recovered from all their major contract screw-ups because they are a factory of money. It gives them a ton of leeway to make these huge deals in the first place. If those transactions don&#8217;t pan out, the torrent of cash that flows in allows the Sox to either cut those players and eat the money, or trade them away and still get something of value back, since they&#8217;re still paying a large percentage of the contract. Money gives the Red Sox a large margin of error, and the payroll can effectively tank the hit of a couple bad deals.</p>
<blockquote><p>It isn&#8217;t just the exorbitant bidding in free agency that boxes out small-payroll teams &#8211; it&#8217;s the extreme regression risk that comes with any mega-deal.</p></blockquote>
<p>This is the benefit of having a luxury-tax-pushing payroll that isn&#8217;t discussed very often. The inequality between the Red Sox and a team like the Rays or Athletics usually comes in the form of being able to make those deals. The Red Sox can price out those teams for any given player, if they felt compelled to do so. What isn&#8217;t talked about enough is what could happen after that deal is struck. A team like the Sox or Yankees can be saddled with a failure of a mega-deal (see: Ellsbury, Jacoby) and continue to compete and win. For the Rays and A&#8217;s, however, a player falling off on a huge deal would utterly cripple their short-term payroll and outlook, and might adversely affect their long-term plans. It isn&#8217;t just the exorbitant bidding in free agency that boxes out small-payroll teams, since deferments are a thing &#8211; it&#8217;s the extreme regression risk that comes with any mega-deal.</p>
<p>Pablo Sandoval would&#8217;ve earned an even $17 million this year. The Rays could fit Chris Archer&#8217;s, Kevin Kiermaier&#8217;s, Wilson Ramos&#8217;, and Corey Dickerson&#8217;s salaries into that with room to spare. The A&#8217;s would have wiggle room if you combined what Jed Lowrie, Yonder Alonso, and Rajai Davis are all getting paid in 2017 and shoved it in there. For those teams, having a player implode with $17 million attached to their name would deny them quite a lot of useful additions and potential trade chips. Now imagine losing out on getting good players on one-year deals &#8211; and the potential prospects that you&#8217;d receive by trading them &#8211; for <em>four more years</em>. That&#8217;s catastrophic at best, and a front office house cleaning at worst.</p>
<p>Sometimes, though, even the big payroll teams reach their limit. Burdened with Beckett&#8217;s contract extension, Crawford&#8217;s albatross contract, and the first year of Adrian Gonzalez&#8217;s extension, the Red Sox were hurting for salary relief. In a move that was the polar opposite of the Sandoval deal, Cherington offloaded all three of those contracts (plus Nick Punto) to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and while the prospects they received didn&#8217;t amount to much, getting over $250 million of salary off your books is still pretty damn good. The Red Sox were saved from a decade of payroll crunches due to a very shrewd waiver trade in August. They found the limits of the margins their money made for them.</p>
<p>This isn&#8217;t something that should be touted, honestly. It&#8217;s more of an unspoken benefit, a representation of the disparity in revenue between some of the teams in baseball. That kind of money allows for teams to not just go out and get players they want, but to make mistakes, and quickly recover from them. Sometimes big contracts work, and sometimes they don&#8217;t. The difference here is that when they don&#8217;t, the Red Sox can deal with it.</p>
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		<title>Fare Thee Well, Nick Punto</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/02/19/fare-thee-well-nick-punto/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/02/19/fare-thee-well-nick-punto/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Feb 2016 13:57:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matthew Kory]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Cherington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carl Crawford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Beckett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Nick Punto Trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3622</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nick Punto has announced his retirement. Let us not forget all the things this man did for Red Sox Nation. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kevin Youkilis spent nine years with the Boston Red Sox. For a few seasons he was one of the best hitters in baseball, but always he was a fan favorite. He was loved for his gritty style of play, his intensity, his bizarre stance, and because he was so damn good. So when Youk was traded mid-game during the 2012 season, it was a big deal. Later, <a href="http://www.baseballessential.com/news/2016/02/09/kevin-youkilis-my-message-to-red-sox-fans/">Youkilis remembered</a> what that moment was like:</p>
<p><i>My final game in Fenway Park was amazing. The emotions from the first at-bat and a standing ovation to the moment Nick Punto, one of my closest baseball friends, came out to run for me is indescribable. Red Sox fans that day gave me the most amazing sendoff a player could ever ask for because it was not scripted. No speeches or pregame ceremonies were needed. It was just the beauty of a fan base showing theirappreciation and I wish I could’ve shown them more love, but the game had to go on.</i></p>
<p>Fenway Park, a departing icon, standing ovations, emotions, history, reverence, and, somewhere somehow, Nick Punto.</p>
<p>Punto <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/700393057531904000">announced his retirement</a> from baseball <span class="aBn"><span class="aQJ">on Wednesday</span></span>, making official what was suspected after he sat out the 2015 season. Because players don’t sit out seasons when they have decent offers on hand, and teams don’t give good offers to players in their late-30s who just sat out a season. But still, Punto is hanging them up, and as such, it’s time to offer a retrospective of what Nick Punto meant to the Boston Red Sox. Here. Let me sum up Nick Punto’s time with the Red Sox as best I can in a single word.</p>
<p>Nothing.</p>
<p>That was the essence of Nick Punto’s contribution to the Red Sox. During his 65 games with Boston, Punto came to bat 148 times. With those chances, Punto amassed a slash line of .200/.301/.272. And yes, before you ask, that slugging percentage really is lower than the on-base percentage. His entire contribution was worth -0.2 WARP. In other words, he actually cost the Red Sox a fifth of a win. As for highlights, well&#8230; he had one home run. It came on a 2-0 count in the ninth inning of a game the Red Sox were leading 6-4.  Even his high points almost literally didn’t matter. He was utterly expendable, replaceable, inconsequential.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=21958653&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>That’s not to say Punto had an inconsequential career. On the contrary, he played in the majors for almost a decade and a half! Sure he was only worth a total of 5.2 WARP during that time, but a decade-plus in the majors in and of itself, regardless of any measurements or statements of quality, is impressive. So why did he last so long if he wasn’t very good? There are two reasons. The first is his versatility. Punto was the guy you wanted on your team because he could play all over the diamond. During those paltry 65 games with the Red Sox, Punto played every single infield position. He even played shortstop (all of 44 innings!). (Yikes!) He was short, squat, and powerless, but you could put him just about anywhere in the infield and your team wouldn’t automatically lose the game, and that had value that maybe wasn’t captured in his WARP total. That was the first reason then-GM Ben Cherington gave Punto a two-year contract.</p>
<p>The second reason Cherington signed Nick Punto was that he was a great teammate. If you were trying to build a good clubhouse, Punto was a positive step towards that goal. So it was all the more ironic when he was traded to, among many other reasons, improve Boston&#8217;s clubhouse chemistry. The 2012 Red Sox were managed by Bobby Valentine. Also, there were clubhouse problems. Those two things may have been related! Come July, the team was struggling and Valentine was awful and some of the players weren’t happy and attempted to go over Valentine’s head to fix the situation. This didn’t work, unless the goal was to make everything worse. If so, then it was a resounding success! But otherwise, nope.</p>
<blockquote><p>If you were trying to build a good clubhouse, Punto was a positive step towards that goal. So it was all the more ironic when he was traded to, among many other reasons, improve Boston&#8217;s clubhouse chemistry.</p></blockquote>
<p>We go round and round for another month or so with the team not improving on the field or in the clubhouse, and it became clear that something had to be done. What was done was huge. Then-new GM Ben Cherington took a box of dynamite to the roster. It was like a plan conceived by Wile E. Coyote, except this one worked. The end result was one of the biggest trades in team history. Gone were franchise cornerstones Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett to the LA Dodgers. In return, the Dodgers sent the Red Sox young pitchers Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa. But most importantly they agreed to pay every penny of the the almost $270 million owed to those three players. $270 million!! And LA took it all! Oh my gosh!</p>
<p>Oh, and they took Nick Punto too.</p>
<p>It was an amazing trade. It completely reset the Red Sox roster, giving the team flexibility they hadn’t dreamed was possible. It allowed them to supplement the roster that coming off-season with a whole bunch of upside plays, nearly every single one of whom was a smashing success, like a David Ortiz World Series at-bat. This led directly to the improbable, cathartic, and just plain fun 2013 World Series win the following season.</p>
<p>All that was amazing, strange, wonderful, but what about Nick Punto? He may have been the strangest, the most bizarre aspect of it. Of Beckett, Crawford, and Gonzalez, all were multi-millionaires on multi-year contracts paying them tens of millions of dollars per season. All were stars, Beckett from the ’07 World Series win with the Red Sox, and before that, the ’03 World Series with the Marlins, both of which wouldn’t have been won without his dominance on the biggest stage. Gonzalez was perhaps the preeminent first baseman in baseball, a player the Red Sox had just traded almost their entire farm system for before bestowing a massive $20+ million-per-season contract on him. He was to be the centerpiece of the Red Sox. Crawford combined superior speed and defense with surprising power. He, along with Gonzalez, was the big, sexy pillar of the new Red Sox.</p>
<p>And Nick Punto who signed for $3 million over two years and was balding and pudgy. He was the coaster hastily shoved under the drink minutes after the fact. He was completely an afterthought.</p>
<p>Ned Colletti [Dodgers GM]: We really want Gonzalez, Ben.<br />
Cherington: You can have him, but like I&#8217;ve been telling you for months, you have to take Beckett and Crawford too.<br />
Colletti: You know what? I&#8217;ll do it!<br />
Cherington: Great! We’ll have the paperwork drawn up and we’ll notify the commissioner’s office. Talk to you soon [goes to hang up phone]<br />
Colletti: Wait Ben!<br />
Cherington: What?<br />
Colletti: Throw in Pinto too, wouldya?<br />
Cherington: You mean Punto?<br />
Colletti: Yeah, Punto.<br />
Cherington: Uh… sure?<br />
Colletti: Great! Can’t wait to make this official!</p>
<p>It was the biggest trade the Red Sox ever consummated, both in terms of total dollars and in terms of the 180 degree directional change of the franchise that it not only symbolized but engineered. It led directly to the team’s third World Series championship in a decade, a thought that would have been unimaginable in August of 2012. It featured three All Stars, and a local World Series hero. And what do people call it?<em> The Punto Trade</em>. Because of all the significance dripping from the deal, what sticks out perhaps most of all, is Punto’s inclusion. It’s just so… strange, such an afterthought, so utterly inessential, replaceable, inconsequential. And yet, there he is, on a private jet  with Beckett and Gonzalez, a two-time World Series winning ace and perhaps the best first baseman in the league. In a time of great seriousness, here was Nick Punto in this trade, and it was&#8230; funny.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/dodgers?src=hash">#dodgers</a> doing it first class! <a href="http://t.co/DRPr2HH7">pic.twitter.com/DRPr2HH7</a></p>
<p>— Nick Punto (@Shredderpunto) <a href="https://twitter.com/Shredderpunto/status/239433228858044416">August 25, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p>In a way, Nick Punto was the great artist who died young and unknown. Decades later his work is discovered tucked away in a dusty attic somewhere and his genius is recognize and appreciated. Nick Punto meant nothing to the Red Sox while he was in Boston. He was by definition replaceable by any run-of-the-mill Triple-A middle infielder. It was only by leaving that he became important. But by going, he became more than important; he came to symbolize the first chapter of the rebirth of a franchise, and the first step towards a World Series win. He took with him the distrust, animus, and backbiting of the Valentine era, and wiped it away with the efficacy of an industrial strength cleanser.</p>
<p>As a player with the Red Sox Nick Punto is meaningless, that is, except for what his name connotes. But it is that very implication that, as far as Boston is concerned, is the most consequential thing he ever did.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Turning Twosday: The Red Sox vs. the Ex-Sox</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/12/turning-twosday-the-red-sox-vs-the-ex-sox/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/12/turning-twosday-the-red-sox-vs-the-ex-sox/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2015 11:56:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bryan Joiner]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turning Twosday]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Beltre]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AJ Pierzynski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Miller]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anibal Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bartolo Colon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bartolo forever]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fun stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[go sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Lackey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Lester]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Iglesias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Victor Martinez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=841</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A somewhat disheartening look at how the Red Sox of yesteryear are performing compared to the 2015 squad. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today I look at the Red Sox as matched up with a team of active ex-Red Sox. While I have included BPro Wins Above Replacement figures with each player, I’ve made mental adjustments for expected regression, progression and dark magicks. I ignored bench players and middle relievers because of their inherent replaceability, but I still think this is a good-faith effort to see who’s better, independent of salary.</p>
<p><strong>C: Blake Swihart (-.16) vs. A.J. Pierzynski (Braves, .78)</strong></p>
<p>I can’t believe it either, but Pierzynski is the only real option for starting catcher. Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn’t really in the big leagues and David Ross isn’t an everyday player. That’s pretty much it. For as much bad as we can say about Pierzynski &#8212; and we could go damn near forever &#8212; we can say very little about Swihart except that, thank the gods, he’s not Pierzynski. Let’s call it <b>even</b> if only from the standpoint of human decency.</p>
<p><strong>1B: Mike Napoli (-.14) vs. Adrian Gonzalez (1.99)</strong></p>
<p>This one’s not really close. Napoli is in a giant slump and Gonzalez has been the best hitter in the game so far this season, more or less. The <b>ex-Sox</b> leap ahead.</p>
<p><strong>2B: Dustin Pedroia (1.24) vs. Mike Aviles (.44)</strong></p>
<p>Pedroia has held the Red Sox’ second base position down for so long that we need to shoehorn Aviles in here just to round out the infield (unless we want Stephen Drew and his 0 WAR, which we don’t). The current <b>Red Sox</b> are as far ahead here as they are anywhere, and we’re more or less even again.</p>
<p><strong>SS: Xander Bogaerts (.33) vs. Jose Iglesias (.40)</strong></p>
<p>This would be Jed Lowrie (1.36) of the Astros, but Lowrie is hurt, as usual, and everybody loves Iggy. Bogaerts may yet become the ninth wonder of the world, but if you had a team with the offenses that both of these teams have, the defense would be the important part if you were playing the game today. Bogaerts’ future means squat here. Slightest advantage to the <b>ex-Sox</b>.</p>
<p><strong>3B: Pablo Sandoval (.73) vs. Adrian Beltre (.05)</strong></p>
<p>There are no losers here. Pats on the head for everyone. Sandoval has been better this year, but Beltre is Beltre. Let’s call it <b>even, </b>with the ex-Sox a tick ahead.</p>
<p><strong>DH: David Ortiz (.07) vs. Victor Martinez (-.29)</strong></p>
<p>Another case of two players I love, both of whom have started slowly. Advantage <b>Red Sox</b>, though, because come on. It’s a dead heat. It won’t stay that way.</p>
<p><strong>Outfield: Hanley Ramirez (.72), Mookie Betts (1.26), Brock Holt (\o/, .44)<br />
vs.</strong><br />
<strong>Yoenis Cespedes (.27), Jacoby Ellsbury (.97), Brandon Moss (.14)</strong></p>
<p>Both of these teams would rotate their outfielders and both teams have good a good set of them beyond the starters; for the Red Sox, you have Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and Rusney Castillo waiting in the wings, while for the ex-Sox, you have Coco Crisp and, yes, Carl Crawford. Did I say “Carl Crawford?” Advantage: <b>Red Sox</b>, who are about to get slaughtered.</p>
<p><b>Rotation<br />
</b><strong>Clay Buchholz (.81), Rick Porcello (-.15), Justin Masterson (.15), Wade Miley (-.11), Joe Kelly (.03)<br />
</strong><strong>vs.<br />
</strong><strong>Jon Lester (.89), Anibal Sanchez (.50), Bartolo Colon (.71), John Lackey (.80) and Rubby de la Rosa (.10)</strong></p>
<p>Advantage: The <b>ex-Sox</b> by five miles. Maybe 10 miles.</p>
<p><strong>Closer: Koji Uehara (.21) vs. Andrew Miller (.49)</strong></p>
<p>Andrew Miller has been almost as good as possible be this year. His ERA is 0.00 in 15+ innings. He has a 28:8 K:BB ratio. He has 13 saves. He’s a big reason the Yankees are in first place.</p>
<p>Koji is Koji.</p>
<p>Advantage: <b>Red Sox</b>, but the damage has been done. You’re going to want those ex-Sox in a single game, a seven-game series or a season. It’s okay, because the Red Sox are still (really!) damn good, and come into tonight’s game at 41 percent to make the playoffs and the highest expected winning percentage in the AL East, all while being three games below .500.</p>
<p>But yeah…</p>
<p>… if it doesn’t work out, just know the Ghost Sox are doing work out here, too.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Caylor Arnold/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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