Speaking of blunders, here is a list of the most famous and classic of them:

1. Never get involved in a land war in Asia
2. Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line
3. Never take copious amounts of pitches if the pitcher is a renowned strike-thrower

From the start of Game 3, the Red Sox still seemed to be in the funk that plagued them in the last week of the season.Josh Tomlin‘s 4.17 DRA and 1.86 HR/9 aren’t because he’s ineffectively wild, but because he throws a lot of pitches in the zone, and hitters often capitalize. The Red Sox tried to wait out Tomlin, hoping he’d throw a mistake, but they found few. Their strategy was to take pitches to run Tomlin in five innings, but Tomlin was undeterred, throwing strike after strike after strike. Three of Tomlin’s first four innings of scoreless baseball were clean and perfect, and that was enough for the Indians to gain a lead.

Read the rest at Baseball Prospectus.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Rick Porcello and David Price were supposed to be the exceptions to those struggles. Instead, in the ALDS, they were the worst versions of themselves. Porcello gave up three home runs in one inning, including to the No. 9-hitting catcher with three regular-season homers in 2016. Price gave his critics every reason to continue doubting his ability to perform in big games. So yeah, the starting pitching was a nightmare, and could ultimately cost the Sox their season.

But starting pitching hasn’t been the team’s only problem. The Sox’s biggest strength – its lineup that boasted four All-Star starters and scored the most runs in the majors – has been virtually non-existent. They needed solo home runs from the likes of Brock Holt, Sandy Leon and Andrew Benintendi just to score four runs in Game 1. Then they were shut out and shut down offensively in Game 2. Everything they did well at the plate in the regular season – make solid contact, get timely hits and rely on production from their stars – has yet to be a strength two games into the playoffs. It’s an issue even good pitching couldn’t overcome.

As I wrote about in July, the Red Sox have been one of the hardest teams to strike out in the David Ortiz Era, and this season was no exception. The Sox owned the third-lowest offensive strikeout rate in the regular season (18.4 percent) and the highest contact rate (81.6 percent). The Sox have been a shell of that team thus far. They’ve struck out 22 times over their first ALDS 69 plate appearances. That’s a hearty 32 percent rate. Dustin Pedroia, who had one of the lowest strikeout rates in the majors at 10.5 percent, and Xander Bogaerts, who had the fourth-lowest rate on the team at 17.1 percent, have accounted for a majority of the Sox’s strikeouts with four apiece over the first two games. Jackie Bradley Jr.’s five combined strikeouts are less of a surprise, but alarming nonetheless.

Four runs over two games for an offense that averaged more than five runs per game is concerning, but the lack of scoring isn’t due to a lack of opportunities. The Red Sox put five runners in scoring position in Game 1 – a situation they hit an AL best .283 in during the regular season – but went 2-for-9 in such spots, turning those opportunities into one run. Game 2 didn’t present as many scoring opportunities thanks to Corey Kluber’s dominance, but the Sox still went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position. That gives them a .143 average for the series with runners in scoring position – good for third worst among division series teams.

Perhaps the most frustrating part of the Sox’s offensive struggles is that their best players have been among their worst over the first two games. Mookie Betts, an MVP candidate with a .296 TAv in the regular season, has just one hit for the series. Bogaerts and Pedroia also have just one hit apiece. Ortiz, who defied Father Time throughout his final regular season with 38 homers and a .317 TAv and is arguably the best playoff hitter in team history, also has just one hit in eight at bats. The Red Sox’s best hitters, aside from Hanley Ramirez, aren’t creating any offense.

Fielding has also been an issue for the Red Sox. The same defense that was eighth in the majors in UZR (21) and fourth in defensive runs saved (48) has been less than stellar in the field. The Sox have only committed one error over the first two games – a grounder that went under the glove of Pedroia in Game 2 – but have failed to make a number of plays they normally make. A strong example came in the fifth inning of Game 1. The Red Sox trailed Cleveland 4-3 with no outs when Carlos Santana flied out to Benintendi in left. Benintendi was too late to notice Indians catcher Roberto Perez tagging from first to second for an advance that was easier than it should’ve been. Jason Kipnis drove in Perez with an RBI single for the eventual winning run. Game 2 wasn’t any better. Pedroia had his error, but Bogaerts and Holt each misplayed ground balls that allowed extra base runners and extra outs for an Indians offense that scored six runs.

The point is, nothing has gone well for the Red Sox through two games. Sure, Porcello and Price are a concern, especially if the Sox can extend the series after Monday’s Game 3. However, they can’t win if they’re not scoring. And good starting pitching is tough to come by when the fielders aren’t backing the pitchers up. If this series is going to turn around, it’ll take more than just three straight good starts for it to happen.

Photo by Rick Osentoski/USA Today Sports Images

It also offered a clear rebuttal to Buck Showalter’s highly-questionable choice during Tuesday’s Wild Card game to save Super Closer and Cy Young candidate Zach Britton for a save situation that, at least in part due to his very decision, never arrived. It’s not apples to apples, but Showalter’s refusal to use Britton because he might need him later stood in stark contrast–a black hole in the sun kind of contrast–to Terry Francona’s bullpen usage, and, to only a slightly lesser extent, John Farrell’s.

Read the rest at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by David Richard/USA Today Sports Images

With first pitch now just a little under eight hours away, I polled the BP Boston staff to see how far they think this Red Sox team can go in the playoffs. Let’s just say we’re an optimistic bunch.

Yes, out of the eight writers who responded, only one (yours truly) does not believe the Red Sox will make the World Series. Four think the Red Sox will win it all, while five think Red Sox – Cubs is going to be the World Series matchup.

In terms of individual players, we’re pretty high on David Ortiz (insanely so, if you’re Bryan Joiner or Jake Deveraux) and less optimistic about Rick Porcello and Craig Kimbrel. I was expecting David Price to be a more divisive figure, but overall our team is pretty confident in him, believing he’ll post a playoff ERA in the low-to-mid 3s.

If we learned anything from our preseason predictions post, it’s that we’re sort of ok at making predictions! Seven of the nine participants way back in April predicted that the Red Sox would make the playoffs, with four thinking they’d make it as far as the ALCS and just one of us — Mr. Joiner — serving as a true World Series believer from the beginning.

Got any predictions of your own? If so, you have a few hours left to drop ‘em in the comments. After that, they won’t be predictions at all anymore, will they?

Photo by David Richard/USA Today Sports Images

It goes without saying that every team in the postseason wants to get off to a good start in every series. This is particularly true in a five-game series. Obviously, it’s more important to win the first game the shorter a series gets. If you win Game One of a five-game series, you are 33 percent of the way to the next round.

Just how important is it, though? Is it so important that we should start preparing our own personal meltdowns if the Sox lose the series opener? Let’s look at some recent history to see what we can figure out.

In order to do this, I looked back at the last 10 years of Division Series results. That gives us 40 series to choose from, an ample sample size to determine a trend that becomes fairly obvious sooner rather than later. Of the 40 series, 31 teams who have won the first game of the series went on to win the series, giving them a .775 winning percentage. Furthermore, in six of the 10 years I looked at, all four teams who won the first game ended up going on to the LCS.

That’s not the only factor at play here, though. The Red Sox are on the road, and there are two ways to look at this. The first is that this inherently makes them the worse team since they couldn’t secure home field advantage. Given how close this particular race was, that doesn’t really work in this case. The other way to look at this is that, if the Red Sox win the opener, they have an even bigger advantage.

You hear it in every playoff series in every sport: If the road team wins Game One, they suddenly take over home field advantage. However, that second line of thinking hasn’t really played out. In this 10-year sample, 18 road teams have taken the first game of a Division Series. Those teams have gone on to win the series 13 times, giving them a .722 winning percentage. That’s clearly a high winning percentage, but it’s slightly worse than the overall record.

Once again, there is another layer to this I found interesting. Teams have recently shown a greater ability to come back after losing the first game. From 2006 through 2010, teams were 19-1, with the 2006 Yankees being the only team to win the first game and still lose the series. Things have changed pretty drastically since then, with Game One winners going just 12-8. Last season, three of the four Game One winners actually went on to lose the series. One would think the growing parity through the game has something to do with it. Even 10 years ago, the top of the league was utterly dominant, so they were much more likely to take command of a series early on.

All this is arguably good news for the Red Sox. However you feel about the Rick Porcello vs. David Price debate for Game One, Boston will have a strong pitcher on the mound. Cleveland, meanwhile, lost Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco to injury and were forced to push Corey Kluber back to Game Two. This leaves Trevor Bauer to take on Porcello. Bauer has shown flashes of success both this year and throughout his career, but he’s never been able to put it together consistently. Of course, baseball teams lose with the pitching advantage all the time, so the Red Sox are probably only something like 55 percent favorites.

So, I think it’s pretty clear that winning Game One is hugely important. Again, this isn’t all that surprising in a five-game series, and I would expect the numbers to be different in a seven-game set. If the Red Sox are fortunate enough to play in one of those, perhaps I’ll do this again. My advice would be to set your meltdown-o-meter to a six if the Red Sox lose Game One. History shows that’s a tough place to be, particularly if you lose to a home team.

However, recent history has been much more kind to Game One losers. Plus, if there’s one word you can use to describe this Red Sox team, it’s resilient.

This should be a pretty fun series. The Red Sox are up against their old manager, their old “high-leverage specialist” and their old first basemen. The Indians are up against the best offense in baseball and one of the best postseason performers of all time. And also against some very good dances.

But there’s only one real storyline that matters here: which 2016 employer ofMichael Martinez will win?

Read the rest on Baseball Propsectus.

Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports Images