While it’s probably true that Xander Bogaerts isn’t going to hit .455 for the rest of the season — I’m not ruling it out, though — there are some overall team trends worth taking a look at. The big narrative this offseason was how the additions of Alex Cora and J.D. Martinez were going to be the makeover this team desperately needed. There would be homers aplenty; the gaps would be filled with doubles.

Instead, seven games in and the 2018 Red Sox look a lot like … the 2017 Red Sox. Let’s start with what’s been different, though.

From the day that Alex Cora was introduced as the manager, it was abundantly clear that this Red Sox team would be more aggressive at the plate — especially early in the count. From the eye-test perspective, that much has been true so far. The numbers back it up: the Red Sox are swinging noticeably more than they did last year. After swinging at roughly 43 percent of the pitches they saw last season, the team is on pace to swing at a 47 percent clip this season. If that number holds, it would be the highest swing percentage that the team has posted in over 20 years.

The Red Sox aren’t just being more aggressive, they’re being selectively aggressive. Even with the rise in swing percentage, the Sox aren’t chasing bad pitches. In fact, the percentage of times they’re swinging at pitches out of the zone is pacing one percentage point lower than last year.

Jumping on strikes, however, is a different story. After swinging at 62 percent of balls in the zone last year, the team is coming up to the plate hacking at 71 percent this season. A common criticism of the team last year was that the best hitters were being almost too selective at the plate, so being this aggressive right out of the gate is an encouraging sign.

So why don’t the results look any different? First off, these things take time to even themselves out. If the team continues to be this aggressive, the results will look significantly different in a month. Last year, the Red Sox batted .277/.365/.436 with runners in scoring position. This season, under the same circumstances, they’re currently hitting .186/.286/.349. Last season, the Red Sox finished the year with an exactly league-average BABIP. This year, their BABIP is currently 20 points below league average.

There are definitely reasons to be wary. The two team’s batted-ball profiles look shockingly similar. This year’s squad hasn’t gotten on base at quite the same rate so far. They’re middle of the road in just about any power-measuring stat you look at.

Like I said at the top, it’s hard to read into numbers too seriously while we’re still in the part of the MLB schedule that’s susceptible to snow delays. These things take time, and Cora himself even said that he thinks the team is pressing a little too much right now. The similarities between 2017 and 2018 have been surprisingly evident so far, though, and are worth watching closely as the first few weeks of baseball get underway.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

In the meantime, Austin Maddox would love your attention. If you’ll recall, Maddox sort of showed up out of nowhere in September, and was good enough to beat out Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman, and Heath Hembree for a spot on the ALDS roster. He apparently almost made the Opening Day roster out of camp last year, but the tail-end of Spring Training is a dystopian hellscape full of four-hour, split-squad nightmares that I try to forget. If the Red Sox made a decision on one of their 1,000 okay-ish right-handed relievers on the last day of Spring Training, I certainly missed it.

Nonetheless, the team was clearly high on Maddox heading into the 2017 season. Over 36 innings in Triple-A, Maddox posted a 3.70 FIP and was striking out over a batter an inning. While those are certainly good enough to warrant a promotion, Maddox also struggled mightily with control. He was walking 14 percent of the batters he faced, far and away the highest rate of his minor league career. Still, everyone ever drafted by the Red Sox and all the season ticket holders get a shot at making the roster for September call-ups, and Maddox took advantage of that.

In 17 innings of work for the Sox, Maddox carried a 2.64 FIP while posting a stellar strikeout-to-walk ratio that settled a shade below 18 percent. A Brian McCann dinger in a late September blowout was the only run scored against him all year, so that’s kind of impressive. He’s doesn’t really have a third pitch, but he does have a fastball that lives in the mid-to-high 90’s, so I can live with that. Predictably, an overwhelming majority (14) of his 17 innings last season were in low-leverage situations. His .150/.190/.150 slash line against righties is bursting at the seams with intrigue, but it’s hard to take any numbers seriously with such a small sample size. His fly ball percentage sitting at 60 percent is alarming, but again small sample sizes blah blah blah baseball writing is just making a point and then copping out of it.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Maddox made the ALDS roster. Just walked right in and beat out, like, three pitchers the Red Sox had been relying on all year despite only throwing a handful of innings.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Not making the roster out of Spring Training, I guess? Getting taken yard by Brian McCann probably isn’t that fun. The team he’s employed to play for got thoroughly overwhelmed in the playoffs. His cable bill probably increased.

WHAT TO EXPECT

It’s hard to know who ranks above who now that Alex Cora is making the decisions. If the team still views him as a better option than Barnes, Hembree or Workman, he’ll be a prominent member of the bullpen. He’ll be a part of the thrilling right-handed middle relief competition that goes on during Spring Training, and I, for one, cannot wait.*

*that’s untrue.

Photo by Patrick McDermott — USA TODAY Sports

I made up that dumb story to illustrate how awesome Mookie Betts is. His first year was amazing. He was a revelation in right field, got on base, and hit for a shocking amount of power. He darn near won the AL MVP! In 2017 though, things were different. His defense was still great, and so was his base running, but his power and on-base dipped. He finished sixth in the MVP vote. But even so, he was still awesome because, as foretold by the stupid cookie thing, even lesser Mookie Betts is still Mookie Betts.

What Went Right In 2017

To reiterate, in 2017 Mookie Betts was Mookie Betts. Dude hit, played amazing defense, and ran the bases with abandon. He hit 24 homers, stole 26 bases, and walked almost as much as he struck out. Also, Betts’ ability to take ball four took a big leap forward in 2017, going from walking in 6.7 percent of his plate appearances to 10.8 percent. This is the kind of thing that A) sounds good, B) is good in a vacuum, and C) we’ll touch on more later. Continuing down the list, Betts’ defense was incredible to the point where he won a Gold Glove. Not that Gold Gloves have much to do with actual defense as much as perceived defense, but hey, a little recognition isn’t wrong.

Betts was the Red Sox best hitter, base runner, and fielder on a team that won 93 games and a division title. So sure, poke holes in that, Mr. Smart Baseball Guy. Poke all the holes in it you want, but keep in mind this is still one of the best hitters, best fielders, and best base runners in baseball. Still.

What Went Wrong In 2017

Betts popped up a lot more balls in 2017 than he had in previous seasons, which perhaps came from him becoming pull-happy, especially later in the year. This could have been an approach problem, but more likely it was just an offensive rut, as far as these things go if you’re Mookie Betts.

So remember that part about walking more from a few paragraphs ago? There’s a reason that it’s maybe not the best. In 2016 Betts swung at pitches 41 percent of the time. In 2017, it dropped to 36 percent. That’s not bad if he’s not swinging at balls, and that was partially the case (you can see the results in Betts’ walk rate) but really what happened is Betts took a far more passive approach in 2017 than he did in 2016. In 2016 Betts swung at pitches in the strike zone somewhere around 57 percent of the time (depending on which data you’re looking at) but in 2016 he swung at five-to-six percent fewer of those strikes. That lead to fewer hits and fewer hits for power.

The good news there is Betts was ahead and behind in the count at very similar rates in both seasons, so the approach seems more like a choice than anything else, and choices are easily changed. In fact, this might be exactly the type of thing Alex Cora was talking about correcting when he addressed the Red Sox passive approach in his opening press conference.

What To Expect In 2018

Mookie Betts will be all of 25 years old next season so it’s fair to say we’ve seen the best of him. He’ll probably be terrible in 2018 and the Red Sox will finish last.

I kid, I kid. Betts is on the young side of the aging curve, not even to his peak seasons yet, so it wouldn’t be outlandish to expect a few modest improvements in overall production over the next few seasons. Maybe the power Betts showed in 2016 won’t return in full. That honestly wouldn’t be too terribly surprising. The approach should improve though, and if it does the power could come back, if not in homers than in doubles and triples. Betts might be the kind of hitter who is better served hunting for pitches to barrel up, rather than showing a more passive approach in attempt to boost his on-base percentage. The thing about Mookie Betts though is, no matter which version we get in 2018, he’ll still be Mookie Betts. So really, any way you slice it, he’s very good.

Photo by David Kohl – USA TODAY Sports

There is no denying that his 2017 performance was down from 2016, but by BP’s WARP it was by less than half a win, so not really a drop that should have the team looking to cut bait. I will note that by FanGraphs WAR it was close to a two-win decrease in 2017 from 2016, which is certainly a more troubling account of how much worse 2017 was for Bogaerts. But even with the decrease considered, he was still a two-to-three-ish win player in 2017, and one who should be in the team’s plans for the next few seasons.

What Went Right in 2017

His first half. At the All-Star break, Bogaerts was hitting .303/.359/.447 with six home runs, and nine stolen bases (on ten tries). His strong performance over the first three-plus months made him a candidate for the American League All-Star team through the Final Vote, which was ultimately won by Mike Moustakas. Despite ending his streak for All Star game appearances at one, Bogaerts was showing that the above-average hitting he demonstrated in his standout 2016 and 2015 seasons was going to continue. Look at how free his swing looks on these two Father’s Day dingers against the Astros:

That is the sort of easy power for which Bogaerts has long been projected. Unfortunately a wrist injury, incurred right before the All-Star break, severely limited him from maintaining his strong hitting into the second half. More on that in the next section.

While his wrist hampered his hitting, there was nothing wrong with his legs. Bogaerts was the second-most productive baserunner on the team behind Mookie Betts, and seventh-best in all of baseball. He ended the season 15-for-16 in stolen base attempts, good for the third-best success rate among players with at least 15 tries. He adopted the team’s mandate for aggression on the basepaths, and while he made nine outs in doing so, he was still very effective in the approach.

What Went Wrong in 2017

Jacob Faria of the Rays is what went wrong. On July 6th, Faria lost a 1-2 pitch inside, hit Bogaerts on the right wrist, and entirely disrupted his season. After posting a tremendous first half at the plate, Bogaerts was pretty miserable in the second half: .235/.324/.347. A .347 slugging percentage? That is junk. Without two healthy arms, his power was just sapped. What’s more is the injury seemed to change his approach. He was much more patient in the second half, lowering his swing percentage by almost four points. That is not necessarily a bad thing. For example, his walk rate jumped close to four percentage points, which is great. But I wonder if swinging (and making contact) hurt him enough, or he didn’t trust his wrist enough, that he just didn’t want to do it as often. Alternatively, this is a reasonable change between halves of a season and I should be careful attributing too much to the injury. Regardless, watching him get into bad counts after watching hittable pitches go by early in his plate appearances and then flailing at breaking balls off the plate was frustrating for fans, and I am sure it was for Bogaerts too.

The other main down spot for Bogaerts last year, and throughout his career, was his defense. It is difficult to know exactly what to make of Bogaerts as a defender. By fielding runs above average (FRAA) and defensive runs saved (DRS), Boagerts rated as an awful defender. His -11 DRS was the worst mark among qualified shortstops, and his -9.4 FRAA was fifth-worst (among those with at least 350 plate appearances). But then ultimate zone rating (UZR) had him as more of a middle of the pack shortstop. Watching Bogaerts night-in and night-out I didn’t get the sense that he was a hacker out there, but I am sure the same argument was raised in support of Mr. Jeter when metrics suggested he was a mess of a defender. I guess what matters is that, while they don’t agree entirely, all three public measures of defense had Bogaerts as a below average performer last year, so it seems safe to say defense was not a bright spot for him.

What to expect in 2018

Barring a huge shakeup this offseason, Bogaerts will be the Opening Day shortstop and slotted into a spot in the top half of the lineup. Ideally he is able to get his wrist healthy this offseason so that he can get back to smacking the ball all over the park as he was in the first half of this past season. Restored health and a new manager, who many anticipate will have a discernible effect on players like Bogaerts, should be a boon for Bogaerts’ development.

All-in-all, I think the primary issue surrounding Bogaerts is one of comparing him to expectations rather than appreciating what he has done. So far in his career he has been an average to slightly-above-average player (2-3 WARP) each season, which is great, but becomes not so great if lined up against expectations. People see him as a franchise guy who should be posting 4-7 WARP seasons with ease. So when he doesn’t do that, and has periods where he looks downright lost at the plate, the calls to move on from him get loud.

Honestly, that is silly. While he might not consistently reach the upper bounds of the expectations laid out for him, he has a high-floor and, this needs repeating, is just 25 years old. Those are undoubtedly good things to have in a shortstop.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

That answer is simple – identify the best players available via free agency and trade and go get them. This is the Dave Dombrowski approach to the offseason, and it’s one that has generally worked well, netting him key members of the team like Chris Sale and David Price over the past two years.

The Red Sox made a big deal this year about staying under the luxury tax threshold of $195 million in order to reset the penalties that result when the team exceeds those limits. This has been done. Staying under the cap next year will derive the team no more added benefit other than the money that they would save in doing so. As it stands right now, Cot’s Contracts has the team’s estimated salary for 2018 at slightly over $202 million. The team would actively have to shed players in order to stay under the $197 million threshold for 2018.

This should not be a direction the team looks to go, since time is running out for this core. The 2018 season will be the last year for two of the team’s best pitchers in Drew Pomeranz and Craig Kimbrel, players he acquired via trade. There is also no guarantee that Price won’t opt out of his deal at the end of 2018 if he is healthy and pitching well, though admittedly this is the best scenario for both the team and the player. After the 2019 season, things start to get really bleak, Sale, Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello, and Tyler Thornburg will all become free agents. Say what you want about Porcello, but he eats innings, comes with modest upside, and is signed to a fair deal. Thornburg may yet even play baseball. Finally, after 2020 Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, and Carson Smith will all hit free agency, leaving the team with a core of Eduardo Rodriguez, Rafael Devers, and Andrew Benintendi.

It’s entirely possible – perhaps even probable – that the team gets extensions done with key members of the team like Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts but it’s far from a sure thing. Dombrowski sure isn’t going to bank on those things happening, nor should he. Everything he has done as president of baseball operations has been to optimize this current window, when he knows he has these players under contract during the prime of their careers. The most important seasons for this team are the next two years, while Sale remains under contract. Next year is especially significant because the team has relatively few holes in the rotation and bullpen, but could use an offensive boost at first base and designated hitter positions, both specifically mentioned by Dombrowski in his press conference following John Farrell’s firing.

Meanwhile, the American League has gotten a whole lot better. The Yankees were one win away from the World Series with an enviable core of young controllable players. They are also primed to exit next year’s off-season with Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Dallas Keuchel as new members of their team. You might laugh, but this has been Brian Cashman’s plan all along. The team even has the space this offseason to sign an ace like Yu Darvish while still staying under the luxury tax threshold, resetting themselves for their upcoming spending spree.

That’s just the in-division threat. The Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians aren’t going anywhere, with large parts of their 100-win teams locked up for the next few seasons. Maybe Dombrowski picked a terrible time to push his chips in, but he had no choice but to maximize the current roster. It won’t be easy getting past the Yankees, Astros, and Indians, but there’s no way around them. They need to go right through.

Maybe Dombrowski picked a terrible time to push his chips in, but he had no choice but to maximize the current roster.

Dombrowski needs to go out and do what he does best and sign J.D. Martinez. He can’t stop there though, he needs at least one more bat, so maybe Eric Hosmer, or perhaps Giancarlo Stanton. If it was up to me, I’d cut Hanley Ramirez, play Martinez at DH and sign Hosmer to play first. But why stop there? Dombo should sign a quality lefty reliever like Mike Minor or Jake McGee and then call it a day. Will he obliterate the luxury tax threshold by doing this? Yes, but so what? The Dodgers have had payrolls upward of $271 million over the last few years, and they’re in the World Series.

The bottom line is that when Dombrowski recognizes a need, he goes out and addresses that need. He doesn’t take any half measures; he addresses needs with full force. For a team that had a likability problem in 2017, changing managers was a great idea. Let’s give the new manager the tools he needs to succeed in 2018 and beyond. I think John Henry and the rest of the ownership group will find out that long playoff runs and lineups that can hit will make back any additional money spent on payroll. When the duck boats cruise past Government Center, the last thing we will all be thinking about is the luxury tax threshold.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

Will Chris Sale and David Price combine for at least 60 starts?

As you know, David Price spent most of the 2017 season working his way back-and-forth from an elbow-irritation. The injury limited him to just 11 starts, and in only seven of those did he throw more than five innings. Contrary to Price, Chris Sale was everything he was expected to be and more. He had an excellent, possible Cy-Young-worthy 2017, making 32 starts, of which at least 25 could be considered good outings. When healthy, these two are undoubtedly one of the best 1-2 rotation combinations in the game. Having them take the ball for more than a third of the team’s games is ideal. It means several important things, notably: (1) fewer starts being made by Triple-A/Quad-A guys (e.g., Hector Velasquez, Kyle Kendrick – remember all the commotion about him early in the year?), (2) easier days for the relief corps, as Price and Sale tend to provide six or more innings per outing, which means they are more likely to stay fresh throughout the season, and (3) the team can still win if a Price/Sale start coincides with a night in which the offense struggles, which will inevitably happen 20-30 nights per season.

If Price and Sale can be Price and Sale, or at least close to it for 60 combined starts, the Red Sox will have a strong foundation from which they can work. Add another strong season from Drew “Big Smooth” Pomeranz, and have 2016 Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello regain his Red Sox even-year mojo and you can see how the run prevention side of the team will continue to be a strength.

Will the offense hit over 185 home runs?

In 2017 the Red Sox won in spite of their offense, not because of it. This season, the team turned into a banjo-hitting outfit, who made a lot of contact but not much powerful contact. They had the third-lowest Isolated Power mark in the game. Their team total of 168 home runs was the fourth-lowest total in baseball. Their 11.0 HR/FB ratio was the second-worst. That string of ugly numbers is reminiscent of the lost seasons in 2014 and 2015.

There are a number of ways the offense, and specifically the power supply of the offense, can change for the better; health being the foremost. The status of Mookie Betts’ wrist, Xander Bogaerts’ hands/wrist, Hanley Ramirez’s newly repaired front shoulder, and Dustin Pedroia’s knee (if he plays next year) are all important. A full season of Rafael Devers at third base will almost certainly be better than the Marrero-Rutledge-Sandoval-Lin-Hernandez-Selsky law firm that nobody wants representing them.

And then there is the big ticket offseason question: will Dave Dombrowski make a bold move for a middle-of-the-order slugger? Probably, yes. He has shown repeatedly demonstrated that he is a guy who writes out a list of wants and then goes about crossing those things off. Slugger has to be on his list. But who? J.D. Martinez? Or maybe Carlos Santana? How about Eric Hosmer? The Red Sox would love to land either Giancarlo Stanton or Joey Votto, but at what cost? Salary only? Young, cost-controllable talent (not Andrew Benintendi, please!)? Regardless, the addition of a power hitter, improved health from a number of players, and some positive regression should have the offense back to an above-average level of performance. Something in the range of the late 2000s teams would be great.

Will the _____________ era be one characterized by sustained player development and forward thinking?

It seems like a foregone conclusion that Alex Cora’s name will fill the blank in that question. I remain surprised at how convinced people are that he will be an excellent manager, despite the complete lack of evidence. As I mentioned last week, I am not at all meaning to suggest that Cora will be a bad manager, rather I am saying that none of us have any idea of how well he will do. With that said, I will grant that Cora does seem like a better option than the other candidates that have been floating around for interviews.

Regardless of my thoughts on other people’s thoughts on managerial candidates, John Farrell’s time in Boston is done. Dombrowski was cagey as all get out about the firing, perhaps implying that Farrell’s termination seems to have been at least partly due to the underperformance of many of the team’s younger players. With this in mind, the new guy will have to connect with and get the most out of the young core (i.e., Mookie, Xander, Devers, Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr.). From this perspective, Cora being a younger, ex-major league position player makes him a good fit.

Managing in Boston is notoriously difficult. After Farrell was fired, much beloved ex-Red Sox manager Terry Francona recently noted “…that place is a little crazy.” So whoever gets hired has that to look forward to. Hopefully he can handle it, and guide the ship to another division crown.

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All told, there are plenty of reasons to expect the Red Sox to be better in 2018 than they were in 2017. They may not win 100 games and run away with the division, but they are absolutely built to be in contention. If they get 63 combined starts from Sale and Price, hit 192 home runs, and have a manager who consistently puts the players in advantageous situations, it is hard to imagine them not fighting for top spot in the division and another playoff berth. Sure, the Yankees are terrifying. and I acknowledge my outlook has something of a rosy hue to it. But with that standing, a few tweaks – most notably in the form of a quality bat – and the Red Sox will be expected to be really good. Maybe even capable of winning a playoff series or two, and if they’re feeling like champions, a third wouldn’t be bad at all.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports