Going Deep

With an ace locked up and a revamped bullpen, the Red Sox could sit quietly until spring training and hear little complaints about their offseason work. But, as the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato writes, there’s still an opportunity for the Sox to make improvements with the likes of Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton still available. Mastrodonato proposed three improbable, yet not unrealistic, moves the Red Sox could make to enhance their 2016 roster.

The first idea was to trade Hanley Ramirez and sign Davis. Yes, it’s unlikely Ramirez will have any suitors, but Davis, who had a respectable 5.7 UZR/150 last season, is a clear upgrade at first base. And with 47 home runs and a .390 wOBA last season, he’s also a better hitter. Same goes for Justin Morneau, whom Mastrodonato also proposed the Red Sox acquire as a stop-gap for Sam Travis if they can move Ramirez. Morneau has a career 2.9 UZR/150 as a first baseman and posted a .279 true average and .353 wOBA with the Rockies last year. He’d also come at a far cheaper price. Mastrodonato’s final proposal may have been the most unrealistic, but also the most irrelevant – trading Rusney Castillo and signing Alex Gordon. This can’t happen for two reasons. One, Gordon signed a four-year deal with the Royals on Wednesday. And two that would require a taker for Castillo, who struck out at an 18.7 percent rate last season. That’s without mentioning the millions he’s owed over the next five years.

If you thought that was too good to be true, wait until you see what ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick’s “Most Interesting People in 2016” story inspired. (Do I sound desperate for interesting things to write about?)

Two players who cracked Crasnick’s list were Toronto’s Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, both of whom are free agents at the end of next season. Crasnick suggested that one of the two could serve as the heir apparent to David Ortiz at DH. The Blue Jay Hunter’s Ian Hunter and Bluebird Banter’s Minor Leaguer took it a step further, plotting an all-out Blue Jays reunion in Boston with David Price, Bautista and Encarnacion in 2017. Crazy, right? Believe it or not, it could be done with a little luck and a willingness from the Red Sox to spend big next winter.

Individually, Bautista and Encarnacion are both capable of replacing the seemingly ageless Ortiz. Both players finished with higher TAvs and wOBAs, and hit more home runs than Big Papi in 2015 (Bautista also knows a good bat flip). The problem? One would have to field if both signed. Bautista is a respectable outfielder who would be an upgrade over Jackie Bradley Jr. or Castillo at the plate, and although Encarnacion isn’t known for his glove at third, a replacement for Pablo Sandoval is welcome. The biggest downside would be age. Bautista will be 36 and Encarnacion 34 during the 2017 season, so committing to long term contracts with both players would border on irresponsible. But hey, it’s OK to dream, right?

Quick Hits

As mentioned above, it’s January and many of baseball’s top free-agent bats are still available. The Boston Globe’s Nick Carfardo examines this situation and what it could mean for teams in need of offense over the next two months. The pitchers had their day in November and December. The expectation is the position players will get their big contracts next as plenty of teams are desperate for offense. But how far will some teams, such as the Orioles with Davis, go to sign these available players?

The Red Sox lost a pair of legends last week with the deaths of Dave Henderson and Frank Malzone. The Worcester Telegram’s Bill Ballou wrote about their permanent place in franchise history, as well as that of the many other former Red Sox players.

We’ve talked plenty about trading Castillo in this post, but not enough about what his value to the Red Sox will be in 2016. MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith does just that. Castillo has been a disappointment so far. He has a career .226 TAv in 329 major-league plate appearances, and has struggled to stay healthy. Next season will be an important one for the 28-year-old Cuban defector, who will be in the third year of a seven-year, $72.5 million contract. The Sox clearly see potential in him, and he’ll get his chance to finally reach that point as a probable starting left fielder next season.

MLB.com’s Jim Callis listed 10 prospects poised to surge in 2016 last week. Among them was right-hander Anderson Espinoza, a Venezuelan flamethrower in the Red Sox organization. Espinoza is a 17-year-old who is lauded for his upper-90s fastball (he can touch 100 mph) combined with plus secondary pitches and command. He made such a strong showing in rookie ball that he even saw 3.1 innings of work in Low-A Greenville, where he posted a 2.88 FIP and 10.80 K/9.

Speaking of prospects, Fangraphs released its KATOH projections for Red Sox prospects this week, projections that were kind to the likes of Rafael Devers (9.6 WAR KATOH projection through age 28 season) and Travis (7.3) after breakthrough seasons in the minor leagues in 2015. Espinoza was also highly regarded on the list, cracking No. 4 with a 6.2 WAR projection.

Pitcher Steven Wright participated in a tour of five overseas military bases last month with a group that included several notable celebrities. The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham wrote about Wright’s experience.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

The most fascinating of all the story lines this winter, though, could be how they address the outfield. While the team tore through the league over the last couple months of the season as they made their season slightly more respectable, the fan base fell in love with the Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley and Rusney Castillo trio.* There’s good reason for this excitement, too, as these three combined for a successful and exciting combination that produced big numbers in often flashy ways.

*The group has a collective nickname that will not be used by this author, and he encourages you to abstain as well.

With that being said, it’s hard to shake the feeling that rolling with this outfield heading into 2016 is just appealing to small sample success. As inevitable as it’s felt since the end of the season, Boston doesn’t have to enter next season with these three. It’s something I outlined here, specifically talking about Rusney Castillo. As the World Series is upon us and offseason rumors start to slowly roll in, it’s looking more and more like going after Alex Gordon could be the best move for the future of this outfield.

Gordon is quietly one of the better stories in the league, one that didn’t really get the attention he deserved until the Royals suddenly became competitive in 2014. He was selected with the second overall pick in 2005 and maintained top prospect status throughout his run through the minors. He debuted just two years later, and struggled for a long time in the majors. By the time 2011 rolled around, he was looking like a significant bust. However, he broke out that season, turning himself into one of the best corner outfielders in baseball and giving fans around baseball hope for their slowly developing top prospects.

Gordon broke out in the 2011 season, turning himself into one of the best corner outfielders in baseball and giving fans around baseball hope for their slowly developing top prospects.

Offensively, Gordon has turned into one of my personal favorite types of hitters, one that relies on patience and doubles. Since that breakout, he’s hit .281/.359/.450, an overall line that’s been roughly 20 percent better than the league average. He’s drawn a walk in 9.6 percent of his at bats (the league-average is roughly 8 percent), and he’s averaged 40 doubles in that span. There is solid over-the-fence power in there, too, as he’s hit at least 19 home runs three times in the past five years.

Looking specifically at this past season, not much has changed, as it was basically a stereotypical Alex Gordon season in 2015. A groin injury caused him to miss his first significant chunk of time since 2010, but in the 422 plate appearances he was able to accrue over the season he put up a .271/.377/.432 slash-line, good for a .299 TAv. Overall, he ranked 31st of the 211 players who came to the plate at least 400 times last season. So far, he has shown virtually no signs of decline despite the fact that he’s just finishing up his age-31 season.

As impressive as his bat has been over the last few years, his real calling card is his defense. There is some controversy over how valuable left field defense really is, and while there is merit to these arguments, the Red Sox found out the hard way that a left fielder has to at least be competent out there. Gordon is more than competent, as he’s arguably the best defensive left fielder in all of baseball, combining good range, a strong arm and smart play with the glove. Defensive metrics can vary wildly from player to player, but every metric agrees that Gordon is tremendous out there. Part of the reason people love the Betts, Bradley, Castillo outfield is their defensive potential, and the group wouldn’t lose anything with Gordon thrown into the mix.

So, with all of those positives on Gordon’s resume, one would assume that he’s looking at a massive pay day this offseason. However, at this point that isn’t clear. Nick Cafardo looked at some upcoming free agents in his Sunday Notes column, and got this quote regarding the bidding war.

“One of our GMs indicated that with Gordon entering his age-32 year, he wouldn’t give him more than three-year deal at $36 million-$38 million. The Royals may be able to retain him if they want.”

Obviously, this is just one general manager’s opinion and this doesn’t necessarily mean that the price will be this low for the soon-to-be 32 year old. However, Gordon does appear to be a guy that could be overshadowed by the likes of Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and a compensation-less Yoenis Cespedes. It’s possible that the price gets out of control, especially if he has a big World Series, but right now he is looking like a potential bargain for a guy that’s played like a perennial All-Star for five years.

If the Red Sox did decide to go in this direction, there would clearly be some consequences on the rest of the roster. Mookie Betts is safely slotted into center field, but someone has to be pushed out in favor of Gordon. What happens with Castillo and/or Bradley? Honestly, this shouldn’t be too hard to figure out, as the duo could either form a deadly platoon, or the Red Sox could try to capitalize on their hot finishes in the trade market.

The other issue would be that free agent money is presumably being put aside for pitching help, both in the rotation and the bullpen. Luckily for the Red Sox, they have that fully stocked farm system mentioned at the top of this post. Dombrowski will be able to dip into a deep pool of prospects to acquire virtually any young ace who could become available over the offseason. If they don’t find a deal they like, they should be able to spend money on both. My quick math has them with roughly $40 million to spend if they’re truly willing to get back to their 2015 payroll, meaning they should very well be able to fit both Gordon and a top-of-the-rotation arm into that equation. The Red Sox are not the Rays, and signing Gordon shouldn’t stop them from addressing other needs.

All of this depends on how the market develops, but if it goes the way it’s looking right now, the Red Sox need to be all over Gordon. As exciting as their end-of-season outfield was, there is still a lot of uncertainty in that outfield trio, specifically with Bradley and Castillo. Adding someone like Gordon, who has been one of the most dependable all-around outfielders in baseball, gives the Red Sox a better lineup and a better defensive alignment. If the market grows at an unforeseen rate and he commands a 6-year deal for an AAV nearing $20 million, they can go in a different direction. But if it stays in the vicinity of four years and roughly $15 million per year, Boston can’t let that kind of bargain slip away.

Photo by Peter Aiken/USA Today Sports Images

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