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	<title>Boston &#187; All-Star Brock Holt</title>
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		<title>Another Hot Start for Brock Holt</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/14/another-hot-start-for-brock-holt/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/14/another-hot-start-for-brock-holt/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Apr 2016 13:23:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Collins]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[All-Star Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brock Holt's hair]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Farrell]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4131</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It's early yet, but Brock Holt is off to another fantastic start. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At what point do we start to trust baseball statistics? There are different answers for everyone, with some people waiting just a month and others preferring to wait until the All-Star Break. The longer someone waits to judge season stats, the more responsible they are. One thing is for sure, though: Eight games is not a large enough sample. I’m extremely confident in this. With that being said, trends are already happening this early in the season, and they’re worth looking into.</p>
<p>Just over a week into the 2016 campaign, the trends have been confusing for the Red Sox. Some nights, they look like a redux of the last two seasons, buoyed by a pitching staff that can’t stop a college lineup. Other nights, they look like a redux of the 2013 team that had some weird aura around them that prevented them from ever truly being out of a game.</p>
<p>The reality is we have no idea what this Red Sox team is right now, just eight games into the season. There <i>has </i>been one player in particular who has stood out when things have been going well for Boston this year, and it appears he&#8217;s yet again carved out a crucial role on the roster.</p>
<p>This isn’t the first time we’ve seen Brock Holt go on a hot streak like this, but it doesn’t make it any less exciting. Through his first 26 plate appearances of the season, the super utility player and 2015 All Star is hitting .333/.462/.714 with a .433 TAv. As of this writing, that makes him the 13th best hitter in baseball, though that should be taken with the largest grain of salt imaginable, considering it’s a group that’s led by Jeremy Hazelbaker and Tyler White. Still, he’s been really good at the plate, and that’s really the big point here.</p>
<blockquote><p>Holt is a streaky player, and his hot streaks typically come early in the season.</p></blockquote>
<p>Of course, as I said, we’ve seen this before. Holt is a streaky player, and his hot streaks typically come early in the season. Over the last two years, when he’s been playing on something close to an everyday basis, Holt has four months with an OPS of at least .800, and four months with an OPS no higher than .650. So, at some point he’s probably going to hit a slump. That’s what happens with streaky hitters, and it’s how Holt consistently ends seasons with league-average offensive production despite looking like a man possessed for weeks at a time.</p>
<p>That’s not to say the Red Sox and fans should be discouraged; it was just me getting the negative out of the way early. The fact is Holt’s numbers are good in the early going, and he <i>looks </i>good doing it (despite cutting his hair). He’s locked in at the plate, and he’s hitting everything hard in the early part of the season. Obviously, these numbers aren’t stabilized yet, but 60 percent of Holt’s batted balls have been line drives this year, the highest rate in baseball. On top of that, the remainder of his balls in play have been ground balls, which is a good recipe for racking up hits even if it might limit power in the long run. Clearly he won’t stay this efficient — no one could possibly keep up those rates — but it’s a good start. For what it’s worth, the early Statcast data agrees that he’s in a zone. Per Brooks Baseball, Holt’s hitting fastballs as hard as he did at any point last year, and he’s hitting breaking balls much harder than he ever has.</p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2016/04/Holt-Exit-Velocity.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4132" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2016/04/Holt-Exit-Velocity.jpeg" alt="Holt Exit Velocity" width="1200" height="800" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">To finish off this point, Holt is also spraying the ball all over the diamond in an impressive manner.<br />
</span></p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2016/04/plot_hc_spray.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4133" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2016/04/plot_hc_spray.png" alt="plot_hc_spray" width="600" height="600" /></a></p>
<p>Again, none of this is something anyone should be counting on all year, but they are real results and a little look into what makes a Holt Hot Streak.</p>
<p>Watching the Red Sox regularly, however, you know that offensive value is far from the only thing that Holt brings to the table. Once he does get on base, he’s done a fantastic job of providing value with his legs on the base paths, something he’s been able to do throughout his career. Although that baserunning prowess doesn’t result in gaudy stolen base numbers, he’s been one of the most valuable base runners per BP’s BRR metric in each of the last two seasons. It’s happening again in 2016, both by the numbers and<a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v576277583/boscle-betts-grounds-out-drives-in-holt"> anecdotally</a>.</p>
<p>Then, of course, there’s the defense. This is the most valuable piece of Holt’s game, and it’s carrying over again in 2016. That’s not to say he’s an elite defensive player, because he’s not. However, he’s passable literally everywhere. So far this season, he’s logged most of his time in left field, and he’s done a <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v584383883/balbos-holt-dives-for-catch-throws-for-double-play">really good job</a> there. Obviously, it’s not the most difficult position on the diamond, but I have vague memories of a former middle infielder making a mockery of things out there in the recent past.</p>
<p>More importantly, Holt’s always able to shift around the diamond. That’s meant moving to third base this season. While this is likely his worst position on the field, he’s not a trainwreck, and the move allows John Farrell to utilize the bench in the most efficient way possible. Right now, it’s meant using Chris Young as a pinch hitter for Travis Shaw when a left-handed pitcher enters the game. Later in a game, Holt will usually shift back to left field as Pablo Sandoval comes off the bench when a righty is brought in to face Young. There is clear value in allowing the best situational hitters come into the game without worrying about defensive alignment in the next inning.</p>
<p>At least in the early part of the season, the more valuable part of this may be that it’s making a tough job for Farrell a little easier. However you feel about him as a manager, there’s no doubt he’s in a tough spot this year. He’s dealing with a potentially flawed team with huge expectations. On top of that, he has to juggle a strange bench with two big-money players occupying it. He has to keep players happy <i>and </i>put the team in the best position to win every night, as he’s managing for his job right now. None of that would be possible without Holt’s versatility.</p>
<p>At some point, Holt is going to stop hitting and he’ll disappear for a while. He’ll still be in games, granted, but he won’t be the player who stands out every night. And that’s fine. This is how things work with him, and the Red Sox will ride him as long as he’s crushing the ball like this. Nonetheless, Holt’s baserunning value is always going to be there, as is his versatility. Farrell has a tough task this year, and he’s going to need a lot of help along the way. Luckily, having Holt on his side will make things much easier.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Rebuilding the Red Sox: Boston&#8217;s Bolstered Bench</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/03/rebuilding-the-red-sox-bostons-bolstered-bench/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/03/rebuilding-the-red-sox-bostons-bolstered-bench/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Dec 2015 11:00:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Skillin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rebuilding the Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[All-Star Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Young]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dave Dombrowski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Hanigan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travis Shaw]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3009</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With Chris Young in tow, the Red Sox are poised to have a potent bench in 2016.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You might have forgotten after the Red Sox spent over $200 million on David Price, but the team also signed Chris Young to a two-year, $13 million contract this week. Although the veteran outfielder doesn’t fill a gaping hole on the roster like Price does, he figures to be an important contributor for Boston in 2016.</p>
<p>Despite some initial consternation over Young’s expected role with the club, he looks like a solid bet to capably fill the role of fourth outfielder, <a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/01/chris-young-makes-sense-why-are-you-mad/" target="_blank">as our Ben Carsley wrote Tuesday</a>. Young’s signing helps solidify the club’s outfield for next season and gives them further depth on the bench, where his skills fit in quite well with Boston’s returning role players.</p>
<p>Young joins Brock Holt, Travis Shaw, and Ryan Hanigan as the likely members of the Red Sox bench on Opening Day, and it’s a group that should provide the squad with adequate depth next year.</p>
<p>Since he signed, a lot has been made of Young’s pull power, and for good reason. All 14 of his home runs in 2015 went to left field, and as his spray chart from the season demonstrates, Young looks like he’ll feel right at home when the team plays in Fenway Park:</p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/12/Chris-Young.png"><img class=" wp-image-3012 size-full aligncenter" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/12/Chris-Young.png" alt="Chris Young" width="650" height="500" /></a></p>
<p>The fact Young has hit left-handed pitching so well of late makes him a good candidate to platoon with Jackie Bradley Jr. in the lineup when the Red Sox face southpaws. Throughout his career, Young has batted .263/.362/.474 versus lefties, and as others have noted, he provides some much-needed insurance in case either Bradley or Rusney Castillo struggles for an extended period of time.</p>
<p>That Young also brings a solid defensive track record is an added benefit. While his days in center field are likely over, he should be more than capable of filling in at either corner outfield spot. No one will confuse him with Hanley Ramirez out in left field.</p>
<p>This type of versatility gives him something in common with Holt, though no one this side of Ben Zobrist can match Holt’s ability to play multiple positions. The 27-year-old will once again be forced into a bit-part role with Boston, but judging by his performances the past two years, Holt will find a way to prove his value yet again whenever a spot opens up for him.</p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/17/roster-recap-another-tale-of-two-halves-for-brock-holt/">He was named an AL All-Star in 2015</a>, after all, and though he didn’t maintain that level all summer long, Holt still goes through stretches when he’s getting on base multiple times a game on a regular basis. Every team in the league would love to have Brock Holt on their bench.</p>
<p>Shaw is another player whose talents are easily overlooked on this Red Sox roster. Whether he can sustain that .270/.327/.487 line he posted down the stretch is uncertain, but his power potential is hard to question. His performance in 2015 at least gives Dave Dombrowski the luxury of exploring a trade of Hanley Ramirez with some degree of seriousness.</p>
<p>Shaw actually hit lefties better than righties for Boston last season, but he seems like a good candidate to earn some starts against righties or in pinch-hit situations. Given Shaw also showed he can at least hold his own at third base, he could fill in at the hot corner if Pablo Sandoval plays so poorly again.</p>
<blockquote><p>With the whole offseason ahead, the Red Sox already appear to be in good shape, especially from a position-player perspective.</p></blockquote>
<p>Lastly, Ryan Hanigan embodies just about everything you’d want in a back-up catcher. He has decent on-base ability despite not really being much of a threat with the bat. He throws out baserunners at an above-average clip, and his framing stats also rank better than most. As is often the case with veteran backstops, he’s also said to handle a pitching staff well and provide some valuable leadership in the clubhouse. Hanigan’s game is well-rounded enough that Boston can feel comfortable giving him a larger role than many second-string catchers receive.</p>
<p>The Red Sox also have some solid options behind these bench players in case the roster is particularly beset by injuries. Christian Vazquez, who the team was prepared to give the starting job to last season, is set to return from Tommy John surgery and will likely continue his development in Triple-A. Deven Marrero earned some playing time this past September, and perhaps more importantly for his value, demonstrated that he can play second and third base along with being a terrific defensive shortstop. And if Boston does decide to part with Hanley, it’ll likely be because first-base prospect Sam Travis is knocking on the door down in the minors after an impressive season at Double-A.</p>
<p>With the whole offseason ahead, the Red Sox already appear to be in good shape, especially from a position-player perspective. The versatility of someone like Holt is a huge benefit, and he looks like a particularly valuable player for Boston given the injury questions that surround Dustin Pedroia.</p>
<p>All this quality depth has enabled Dombrowski to shop at the high-end of the market and acquire impact players like Price and Craig Kimbrel without worrying too much about the smaller details. Young’s signing, as a result, is easy to gloss over, but his addition stabilizes the outfield picture and bench situation.</p>
<p>Price will, of course, be essential to any success the Red Sox have in 2016, but the bench figures to be a quiet strength for Boston as well.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Nick Turchiaro/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Roster Recap: Another Tale of Two Halves for Brock Holt</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/17/roster-recap-another-tale-of-two-halves-for-brock-holt/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/17/roster-recap-another-tale-of-two-halves-for-brock-holt/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Nov 2015 13:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brett Cowett]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[All-Star Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brock Holt's hair]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2897</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Brock Holt was an All-Star in the first half and ... not ... in the second. Is he the real deal?]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Welcome to BP Boston’s new Roster Recap series! Over the next four months, we’ll be breaking down every player on Boston’s 40-man roster and many of their top prospects in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the Red Sox roster’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as what we can expect moving forward. There’s no better time than the offseason to review the best (there was some best!) and worst (there was a lot of worst!) of the past year in red and navy. </i><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/red-sox-roster-recap-2016/"><i>You can see previous editions of Roster Recap here</i></a><i>.</i></p>
<p>Let&#8217;s start off with a quick primer on how to be a fan favorite in baseball. First, you have to be notable. Try playing multiple positions &#8211; about seven should work. Then field those positions and hit well enough from each of them that you earn yourself a perpetual starting job so you&#8217;re always in the lineup and seen by everyone, everyday. Lastly, try cultivating a righteous flow so it flares out from under your helmet. That&#8217;s like icing on the endearment cake.</p>
<p>Enter Brock Holt.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IO5BRrL9qpk" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>The man with the best Twitter handle on the team got himself the title of All-Star this year and it was well-deserved, as Holt tore it up in the first three months of the season. The last three months? Well, let&#8217;s just say history loves repeating itself, because nobody learns anything ever.</p>
<p><strong>What went right in 2015?</strong></p>
<p>Almost everything before July 14th went spectacularly for Holt. Injuries, ineffectiveness and a willingness by John Farrell to trot him out everyday earned Holt a starting spot, and that spot could be at any given position on any given day. In response, Holt exploded for the best three months he&#8217;s ever had, with a .292/.379/.412 slash during those 90 days that got him a ticket to Cincy for the All-Star Game.</p>
<p>The offensive progression looked legitimate. Holt was hitting for more power than he ever had before, he was hitting a line drive a ridiculous 27% of the time and he was walking nearly double his career rate. Combine that with his consistency no matter where he was positioned, and you&#8217;ve got a breakout player. Second base? Kept on hitting. Left field? Yup, proceeded to rake. Third base? Still did the damn thing.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LUQnAfRiYmU" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Holt&#8217;s performance during April, May, and June seemed to cement his status as the next super-utility guy, as fans dreamed that he would walk in the fabled footsteps of Ben Zobrist. His value can&#8217;t be explained through WAR <a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/15/the-incredible-versatility-of-brock-holt/" target="_blank">or any single metric</a>, but having a backup to virtually every position on the field is a lot more valuable to teams and managers than most think, and Holt gave Farrell a Swiss Army knife to deploy in any way, shape, or form possible.</p>
<p>Holt went from a reliever swap throw-in to jack-of-all-trades to All-Star in less than three years. You know everything broke right when all your titles have hyphens in them.</p>
<p><strong>What went wrong in 2015?</strong></p>
<p>It&#8217;s almost a cop-out to say this, but what went wrong for Holt is mostly a matter of perspective. Do you blame the player, who looked nothing like the All-Star version of himself in the second half? Or do you blame the manager(s), who, for a second straight season, rode Holt to such a degree that a Kentucky Derby jockey would grimace in pain?</p>
<p>Regardless of who or what you point the finger at, Holt still regressed so greatly that Josh Rutledge &#8211; <em>Josh Rutledge</em> &#8211; took over for him at the keystone. Any trace of that improved plate discipline vanished, and the newfound power along with it. Grounders became commonplace, as Holt would churn one out a staggering 60% of the time, and his line drives dropped dramatically as a result.</p>
<p>At this point, you couldn&#8217;t play him in the outfield every day, because the Betts-Bradley-Castillo OF combo (with the occasional Hanley Ramirez cameo) deservedly dominated the playing time. Holt&#8217;s .265/.311/.341 second-half slash was only slightly better than Pablo Sandoval&#8217;s, Xander Bogaerts was locked in at short and Travis Shaw slotted himself into the first base job by hitting roughly five billion home runs in Fenway.</p>
<p>To add injury to insult, Holt seemingly dealt with a new malady every week, be it a hyperextended knee, a left oblique strain, or recurring back spasms. It was a literal breakdown, both physically and statistically, and it stood in stark contrast to what Holt had done the three months prior.</p>
<p><strong>Outlook for 2016</strong></p>
<p>For the second year in a row, Holt reached new career highs in games played and plate appearances. For the second year in a row, Holt stumbled down the stretch. As long as he&#8217;s not an everyday guy, Holt will probably progress once again, possibly near that All-Star level of his. His role as the 10th man is set in stone, but rolling him out there everyday early on could very well lead to another burnout later in the season. His usage needs to be limited, and while three or four starts a week is fine, he cannot have a starting job.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s tough to say that Holt needs to play fewer games, but less is more here, and having a positional band-aid in the second half of the season is something that could turn out to be invaluable. In the end, however much he plays will ultimately be determined by John Farrell, and he&#8217;ll be the one that&#8217;ll choose to either risk another crash-and-burn in August, or save Holt for when it really matters.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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