Back in 2014, anything was possible. Sure, Allen Craig was having a down year in St. Louis, but acquiring both him and Joe Kelly for John Lackey’s shambling corpse? What a deal! Coming off two very productive offensive seasons, Craig possessed significant power that supported a righteous ability to make hard contact. He wasn’t a complete masher, and he was a bit of a butcher in the field despite his versatility, but Craig looked like a valuable asset to a Red Sox team in need of good right-handed hitting.

As it turned out, Craig was hopelessly broken. Instead of thriving after his mid-season change of scenery, things went from bad to worse. He was bad in St. Louis, but he was a complete mess in Boston. The process of the John Lackey trade looked acceptable at the time, but in hindsight? The Red Sox look like they really got crushed in that deal. That’s mostly Craig’s fault. [editor’s note: how often this sentence is true …]

What Went Right In 2015

Nothing.

What Went Wrong In 2015

Where do you want to start? His moderate power appears to have evaporated into thin air. Instead of his career 18 percent strikeout rate prior to 2014, Craig has struck out 30.8 percent of the time in Red Sox colors, including posting a .239 OBP and .203 slugging percentage in 88 plate appearances last season. His work with the Red Sox cost the team 0.6 WARP, despite him only taking that limited number of plate appearances.

Exiled to Triple-A for the brunt of the season, Craig was actually an above-average hitter in Pawtucket, but his mysterious power drain was even more evident down there. He still had a slugging percentage (.350) lower than his on-base percentage (.368), but at least he didn’t do as much damage to Pawtucket’s chances of winning games as he did with the big club.

As bad as 2014 was, a reasonable bounce-back campaign in 2015 could have put him back in the team’s plans, as the Sox could have run him out there while they flailed at the bottom of the AL East. Instead, he established himself as the dead-est money on the team’s roster, which is quite the feat on a team featuring Pablo Sandoval.

Outlook for 2016

It is not good, folks. Outrighted off the 40-man roster, Craig is a non-roster invitee to Spring Training, and probably less likely to see time in Boston this year than Travis Shaw or even Bryce Brentz. It wouldn’t surprise me if Sam Travis pushes him off first base in Pawtucket, which leaves Craig twisting in the wind as a Triple-A utility guy/designated hitter. He’s unlikely to suit up for the big club again, unless he returns to 2013 form … or we enter the darkest timeline.

Acquired to be the team’s rotational 1B/LF/DH destroyer of left-handed pitching, Craig is now the worst thing a professional ballplayer can be: irrelevant.

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When your season is a 162-game grind, having this kind of depth is hugely important. Injuries are going to happen and players are going to underperform for long stretches, giving you needs that you didn’t anticipate in February and March. As such, it’s important to complement your major-league depth with plenty of reinforcements on the farm. We all know about how highly regarded this Boston farm system is, but that’s in terms of overall talent. Do they have the proper depth in the upper levels to help out the big-league squad at any position where a need may pop up?

Catcher

We’ll start behind the plate, because that’s usually where people start this kind of thing and I have a crippling inability to think for myself. It’s here where the Red Sox possess an impressive amount of depth that will be the envy of the league barring any sort of trade. Boston wasn’t one of the best teams in the league here last year, but they’ll likely be returning a Blake Swihart/Ryan Hanigan duo that looked much better down the stretch. On top of that, they’ll also have Christian Vazquez back from his Tommy John rehab. The defensive wizard will probably work the rust off in Triple-A, but he’ll be ready whenever an injury occurs and gives the Red Sox maybe the best third catcher in the league. Sandy Leon accepted his assignment to Pawtucket after the season, giving them even more depth behind the plate. This will not be a worry this winter.

Infield

As I mentioned before, the Red Sox have two perfect backup infielders in Holt and Shaw, as they can both handle multiple positions and have shown an ability to thrive in an everyday role. However, if/when they need to step into the starting lineup, that will open up empty bench spots. In Pawtucket, they look like they’ll have some middle infield options, but the corner infield could be more iffy. Starting up the middle, Deven Marrero is the obvious guy to look to. He’s a plus defender and came up for the first time in 2015. There’s still plenty to worry about with his bat, but as a third option coming from Triple-A he works just fine. However, Marrero is also a possible trade candidate, which could leave a hole. Luckily, Boston acquired Marco Hernandez as the player to be named later in the Felix Doubront deal a couple years ago, and he looks like a future utility player. While he doesn’t possess the same kind of glove as Marrero, he plays good defense at both second base and shortstop. Hernandez has also showed off solid bat-to-ball skills in the minors and should see some MLB time in 2016.

On the corners, things are a little less certain, as Boston’s depth depends on some reclamation projects. Chief among them in Allen Craig, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster once again. The only way he’ll see the majors again is if he lights the International League on fire over the first month or two of the season. Garin Cecchini never reached the heights of Craig, but he’s also fallen pretty far from his top prospect days, and 2016 could be his last chance to earn a permanent spot on a major-league roster. Finally, Sean Coyle was one of the dark horses to play a role on the 2015 team, but injuries and underperformance in the minors nixed that idea. It doesn’t look likely that any of these players will bounce all the way back in 2016, but there is some hope here that at least one can get back to (or finally reach) a respectable level.

Outfield

I alluded to this above, but this is the weakest area on the roster in terms of depth. Their current starting trio is full of youth and potential, but there’s not a lot of that in Pawtucket right now. On Opening Day, the only player who will be ready to step right in from Triple-A appears to be Bryce Brentz. That says about all you need to hear about the situation. Manuel Margot spent a good portion of last year in Double-A and should see Pawtucket at some point in 2016, but he’s not a viable depth option until at least July. That’s if he even stays with the organization. Expect the Red Sox to dip their toes into the minor-league free agent pool to find some extra outfield depth.

Rotation

This is the antithesis of the outfield, as Pawtucket’s rotation should be filled with viable rotation depth for the majors. There’s a chance that Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and Steven Wright all start the year in that rotation, and they are likely to be three of the top four backup starting pitchers, along with Joe Kelly. You can never have enough starting pitching, of course, and they could look for some more depth to add to this group, but it’s not a dire need at this moment if they add some quality to the top.

Bullpen

Like the rotation, the Red Sox should have plenty of relief arms handy in the Pawtucket bullpen. We saw the same pattern in 2015, as there were plenty of options to call upon when a fresh arm was needed. Of course, the issue was that none of those arms were particularly good. They’ll likely be looking at a similar cast of faces in 2016, at least to start the year. Heath Hembree, Jonathan Aro and Edwin Escobar will lead the way, although Pat Light and Jorge Marban should be able to provide some depth as well. Later in the year, Brandon Workman could be back in the mix and guys like Madison Younginer and Williams Jerez could have taken an unexpected step forward. Bullpen depth changes and evolves quickly and often, but as of right now there is some solid depth to pick from in case of injury.

★★★

The Red Sox are going to be focusing on the David Prices of the world this winter, but every year we see the best teams in the league rely on strong depth. Injuries happen to every ball club, and players who start the year in the minors have to play unexpectedly large roles in the middle of the season. Boston appears to be prepared for this scenario at most positions, with corner infield potentially being an issue and the outfield looking particularly shallow. While most of your attention can be paid to the big names, don’t forget about the depth pieces that get brought in to supplement the fringes of the roster.

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Allen Craig

Here we have someone who is definitely not a prospect, but is far and away the most interesting player who’s up with the Red Sox this September. Craig was half of the return from the disastrous John Lackey trade, and played so poorly after coming to Boston that he was sent to Triple-A Pawtucket after just four months with the team. He racked up 166 plate appearances between the end of the 2014 and the start of 2015 and he managed a microscopic .427 OPS in that time. Four qualified batters have a higher OBP than that this season. So, yeah, he’s been pretty bad.

To make matters worse, he didn’t exactly light the world on fire in Triple-A. Although his .274/.368/.350 looks solid enough on the surface, it is mostly terrible with context. Crag is a 30-year-old former All-Star who’s received MVP votes in two different seasons. For a guy with a career .160 ISO with two seasons of .200+ ISO’s under his belt, that lack of power against Triple-A pitchers is disconcerting. His plate approach becomes far less impressive when you recognize the competition he’s been facing.

This may be Craig’s last chance to show anything with the Red Sox, and it’s not even clear how much of a chance he’ll get. The outfield is full at the moment. First base is also full, with Hanley Ramirez transitioning there soon and Travis Shaw earning consistent playing time. With that being said, Boston will make sure that Craig gets his time, because they need to know if he made any strides in the minors. While he’s not an exciting September call-up in the traditional sense, he may be playing for his career, and that’s certainly worth watching.

Garin Cecchini

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If there were such thing as a minor-league version of Craig, Cecchini may be that guy. He soared through the minors earning accolades from all over for his tremendous hit tool. While his defense was never his strong suit, it was passable. He looked like a guy who would hit for high averages while drawing plenty of walks, a profile that had many drooling despite a relative lack of power. Over the last couple of years, though, his stock has dropped precipitously and now it’s not clear that he’ll even have a major-league career. He’s had a miserable season in Pawtucket, and it’s no sure thing that he’ll even get the call this month. He’s 24 years old and the time is ticking for him to make good on his promise. The Red Sox have a busy offseason ahead, and Cecchini could serve as a throw-in in some major trade. Boston may be smart to give teams a chance to see him more consistently against major-league pitching.

Deven Marrero

Although he was drafted just three years ago, the former first-round pick is already 25 and on the verge of being a major-league player. Even if he’s just a utility player, he’s good enough defensively to carve out a role at the highest level. The bat is far behind the glove, but like Cecchini, Marrero could serve as a minor piece in a major deal this winter. When teams don’t have the top prospects to call up this month, this next best thing is to have pieces to showcase for trades. Marrero will give them a chance to give Bogaerts some rest down the stretch. Even if he doesn’t showcase himself well enough for a trade, it will be exciting enough to watch him play shortstop.

Pat Light

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Everyone who writes or talks about the Red Sox has one opinion in common: Boston’s bullpen flat-out stinks. As such, any semblance of help from the farm in this area would be nice to see in September. For the most part we’ll be seeing familiar faces coming up from Pawtucket from the Jonathan Aro, Noe Ramirez, Heath Hembree and Edwin Escobar group. However, there are some other names who have a chance at seeing some time this year, and Light is the headliner of this group. A former starting pitcher, he’s taken a huge leap this year since transitioning to the bullpen. He’s now striking out more than a batter per inning between Double-A and Triple-A, pumping his velocity up to the high-90’s. Dave Dombrowski has a lot of work to do with this relief corps, so it would behoove him to see if any of his young arms can contribute in a meaningful way next year. In that case, Light is the number one name he has to get some eyes on.

Dayan Diaz/Jorge Marban

For the last names, we turn once again to the bullpen. I group Diaz and Marban together because neither is likely to play the type of major role that Light has the potential to play, but either one could carve out a smaller role for himself in 2016. Diaz likely has the best chance of the two. At 26, he’s been in the organization for two years now, and has moved up relatively quickly. As a fastball-first pitcher, he’s been able to rack up the strikeouts in the minors, but his command and control have been issues. He’s been better in shorter outings, however, and he’s been outstanding in Pawtucket this season. Next year, he could solidify the role that was occupied by a revolving door of Hembree, Aro and Ramirez this season.

Marban is a much newer name than Diaz, as he was plucked from Independent League ball prior to this season. He’s had a meteoric rise through the system, starting the year in Salem before ending up in Pawtucket by season’s end. Although his strikeout numbers won’t blow you away, they’re high enough to get by, and his control has helped him put up great numbers. His ceiling isn’t on Light’s or Diaz’s level, but he’s done enough to earn a chance in a bullpen that is full of subpar arms.

For a bad team, the Red Sox are severely lacking in intriguing September call-ups, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Craig may be playing for his career. Cecchini and Marrero could showcase themselves as lower-end pieces in trades coming this offseason. Light, Diaz and Marban could earn themselves a role in the uncertain 2016 bullpen. The most interesting players to watch this month have already been on the roster, but the newcomers will be worth your time as well.

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Top Play (WPA): Edit Edit date and time

Alex Rodriguez led off the top of fifth inning with a single to left. After Chase Headley and Greg Bird struck out, any Yankee threat appeared to be minimized. Didi Gregorius then hit a chopper down the first-base line that should have ended the inning, but Travis Shaw misplayed the second hop and the ball scooted under his glove and all the way down the right field line. Rodriguez ended up at third, and Gregorious advanced to second on the error. The misplay proved especially costly as the next batter, Stephen Drew, smacked a double to left-center field scoring both baserunners (WPA: + .258). In the end, the runs were enough to get the Yankees the win.

Bottom Play (WPA): 

Trailing 3-1 in the bottom of the eighth inning, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts singled off of Dellin Betances’ 98 mph fastball offerings. With one out and David Ortiz at the plate things were looking pretty good. Then on a 1-1 pitch, Mookie and Xander took off on an attempted double steal. I don’t know if they went on their own, or if it was called from the bench but it was not a great decision. Betances throws very hard, and with Ortiz at the plate Yankees catcher Brian McCann had a clear shot throwing to third. McCann did throw to third and Betts was called out (WPA: – .123). The play was very close, and it seemed like third base umpire Vic Carapazza called Betts out for coming off the bag while Chase Headley still had a tag applied to him. The Red Sox challenged the call, but while replays appeared to show that Betts did not come off the bag, the video evidence was not irrefutable and the call was upheld. Check out the video below to decide for yourself:

Key Moment: 

Porcello was cruising through 7.2 innings, only having allowed two runs. Unfortunately, before Porcello could complete the eighth inning Brett Gardner took him deep over the top of Pesky’s Pole for a critical insurance run (WPA: + .135). With Betances already in the game at that point, and Andrew Miller looming, increasing a one-run lead to two runs made things look really favorable for the Yankees.

Trend to Watch: 

With September 1 comes expanded rosters and the Red Sox have called up Allen Craig, Ryan Cook, Noe Ramirez and Sandy Leon. Of these four players I think Craig is the most interesting. We have no idea what he is capable of anymore and it is not clear where he would slot in on next year’s roster. His decline to below replacement level production came quickly, earning him the demotion to Pawtucket. In 400 plate appearances at Triple-A this season he has a triple slash of .274/.368/.350. The on-base percentage is nice, but the slugging is downright ugly, especially when considering he slugged .522 and .457 in consecutive seasons at the major league not too long ago. So the question remains: what, if anything, can Craig provide at the major league level? And if he shows that he can produce like he used to, what do the Red Sox do with him? There is no everyday role in the outfield, at first base or at designated hitter next year, so unless he is considered useful as a bench player there is no clear spot for him. Even the bench role seems like a bit of an awkward fit. He is not exactly versatile or fleet of foot, having him pinch hit for David Ortiz does not present an offensive upgrade and having him pinch hit for Jackie Bradley Jr. raises issues on the defensive side of things. It is not an easy fit. Perhaps the Red Sox are showcasing him for a trade. But it seems unlikely that other teams are going to use a handful of games in September to decide they should give up a decent player in their system to get Craig. Nevertheless I think seeing what Craig can do in the big leagues will be an interesting aspect of the next month.

Coming next: 

The series wraps up tomorrow at 4:05pm EST with Henry Owens heading to the hill to take on the Yankees for the second time in his young career. Owens has performed fairly well during his time in the big leagues, but has struggled with high pitch counts and as a result has not worked deep into games. In three of his five starts he has only thrown 5.0 innings. In his most recent outing against the Mets, Owens had difficulty with control, walking four batters. He will need to be sharper against the patient Yankee lineup. The Red Sox offense will be in tough against Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka (3.62 ERA, 4.07 FIP), who has already beat them twice this season. However, in those two outings Tanaka was less than sharp, posting a cumulative line of 11.0 innings pitched, nine hits, seven runs, two home runs, four walks and seven strikeouts. The Sox’s offense will look to continue their reasonable success against Tanaka and wrap up a series win.

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Triple-A Pawtucket: Allen Craig, 1B and Deven Marrero, SS 

Allen Craig, perhaps unsurprisingly for a guy with major league experience, is getting on base in Pawtucket. That’s never a bad thing, but that might be the only positive we can say for him as of this moment. Over the last seven days, Craig has gone 9-for-24, which is good – until you realize all those hits were singles. His OBP is higher than his slugging percentage, and that rings true for the entirety of Craig’s 2015 season. That’s not good for a guy whose primary position is first base. He’s gotten one extra-base hit over the last month, which was a two-run double off Norfolk Tides starter Tyler Williams on July 23rd. There’s no power there anymore.

Combine that with Craig’s startling inability to hit right-handed pitching (.214/.340/.252 in 250 PA), and you’ll see why Travis Shaw has gotten the call to the majors rather than Craig this year. The Lisfranc injury he suffered in 2013 might have just sapped the power that would’ve have made him a solid first baseman. He’s just not the same hitter, and the Red Sox can only hope that he regains any of that lost thunder in his bat sometime soon.

It can’t be easy being in the shadow of Xander Bogaerts, but Deven Marrero keeps plugging away. What first sticks out about the former Arizona State Sun Devil is his fielding. It’s not flashy, but you get the sense that glovework comes naturally to Marrero. Fundamentally sound and able to make just about every play, he’s widely regarded as a plus defensive shortstop. However, as is the case with many glove-first middle infielders, he’s an unremarkable hitter as well. To his credit, Marrero hits tons of liners, but he’ll get beat on the inside half when he can’t get his hands inside the ball. At this point, it’s safe to say he’s ticketed for a utility infielder role in the majors, and his fielding will keep him there for a long while.

Double-A Portland: Manuel Margot, OF

It seems like a long while since Manny Margot was mentioned in the webpages of BP Boston. If you were worried about the man who set fire to the Carolina League, fear no more: Margot’s been hard at work adjusting to Double-A baseball. The one thing we can definitively say about him so far in Portland is that he’s still getting used to it. In the long run, that’s quite alright for a guy like him, since he’s four and a half years younger than the average age in the Eastern League. He already has the same number of extra-base hits in Portland in 160 PA than he did at Salem in 198 PA. On top of that, when you combine his time at both Salem and Portland, Margot has had a grand total of five plate appearances against pitchers younger than him. The pitches are going faster and breaking sharper, but Margot keeps on getting better.

High-A Salem: Yoilan Cerse, OF and Jose Vinicio, SS

Another Cuban import, Cerse was seen as a future super-sub for the Sox. He’s a sign that the Red Sox see value in having prospects learn several positions to increase versatility and up their chances for success. While fellow Cuban Yoan Moncada is a fantastic hitter, what Cerse brings to the table is his speed. His stats from Cuban leagues won’t explicitly show this, as he hit in the three-hole for the majority of his time there. As a guy who has been out of organized baseball for a year, Cerse has been tasked with getting his plate discipline and baserunning instincts up to snuff. He’s done pretty well with the former so far, as he’s walked almost as much as he’s struck out in Salem. The latter is a bit of an issue, since he’s been caught stealing a tad bit too much for someone whose best tool is his speed. Nevertheless, it’s only been 44 games for the 28-year-old, so he’s got plenty of time to sort things out before he moves up.

Vinicio’s not really been talked about lately, due to the fact that he got placed on Salem’s disabled list on July 19th with an undisclosed injury. It’s a real shame, as Vinicio had been red-hot for most of July, posting a .333/.364/.405 line in 12 games. Rail-thin and a mere 160 pounds, Vinicio’s game is built around his superb fielding and good speed, but he’ll tend to rush plays in the field when he doesn’t have any reason to do so. His hit tool is decent, but he needs to put on more weight so he can utilize it more effectively, and that’s where the problems lie – Vinicio has had issues putting on pounds since his debut in the minors. Where he goes from here is strongly connected to how he can physically grow and develop, and if Vinicio cannot add strength, he might be stuck in the minors for a while.

Low-A Greenville: Michael Chavis, 3B

In almost any other minor league system, Chavis would be getting all of the reps at third base. In the Red Sox system, however, there’s this Rafael Devers dude taking his spot. So not only will he get reps there every now and then, he’ll reportedly play some outfield as well. Chavis is a solid fielder, and so as long as he sticks in an OF spot long enough, there’s every reason to believe he’ll get it down. What’s more important here is that he’s trying to fine-tune his approach at the plate in Greenville. A 113-20 K/BB ratio looks bad on the surface, but Chavis was drafted right out of high school, and he’ll need time for his pitch recognition skills to be refined. It’s the one facet of his game that needs a ton of work. Mechanically, there’s almost nothing wrong with his swing at all – good bat speed, quick hands, and he’s able to get a lot of backspin when he hits with power. So while the stats might look worrisome, don’t fret – this is just the case of a very talented 19-year-old getting his reps.

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The Red Sox are getting to the end of that first stage, but the strange part is we don’t really have a handle on what that first stage has told us. This makes it difficult to know how they should handle the second stage. Boston sits last in the AL East, but only 6.5 games behind the first place Yankees. Then again, Boston’s run differential is -43. Then again, based on the track records of the players on the team, there’s reason to believe that figure doesn’t accurately represent the quality of the team going forward, only what they’ve done to date. You can already see the problem.

It’s not just idle speculation and fanboyism that leads someone to say the Red Sox still have a shot. Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs both publish team projections for the remaining games on the schedule. Both see the Red Sox as one of the best teams in the AL: FanGraphs has them in first outright and BP second to the Angels by a half game. But even so there are clearly a number of holes on the team, and a crunchy roster that doesn’t quite integrate as well as you’d like. Ben Cherington has talked about approaching the deadline not as a buyer or a seller, but as a team looking to improve itself long term. That makes sense, but it’s also a bit of a copout. What team doesn’t want to improve itself long term?

Short term, as in this season, the Red Sox have three main issues: they need to assemble a starting rotation, they need to find someone who can produce at first base, and they need a better bullpen. The problem is the way they approach those problems will vary depending on whether they are in a position to push toward the playoffs. For instance, you wouldn’t trade a significant piece to upgrade the bullpen while letting first base languish. Now, if there is a long term solution at first base COUGHTRADEEVERYTHINGFORGOLDSCHMIDTCOUGH then maybe you make that move and then if the market for relievers is insane you move on and try to patch from within or take a look again at the waiver deadline in a month. There are degrees here, for sure.

Then again, we’ve seen what straddling the line has looked like before. In 2014 Boston sold hard at the deadline, but they didn’t do it in a traditional vets-for-prospects type of way. They did deal Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez, and that deal has paid dividends already, but they also dealt arguably their two best starting pitchers in John Lackey and Jon Lester for players already on major leaguer rosters, i.e. not prospects. Not even a year has passed and already those deals look awful. You couldn’t give Allen Craig away (we know because the Red Sox tried) let alone use him as a piece to acquire John Lackey, and Joe Kelly is hilarious on Twitter and also in Triple-A. Oops. Yoenis Cespedes came back for Lester and this off-season, instead of holding on to Cespedes, Boston dealt him to Detroit for Rick Porcello after signing Hanley Ramirez.

The Lester and Lackey deals look rotten now, but was there anything intrinsically wrong with the thought process behind them?

All those deals look rotten now, but was there anything intrinsically wrong with the thought process behind them? Is continuing down that road wrong at its core? It’s difficult to say.  It seems that last year wasn’t a case of the Red Sox front office misevaluating players so much as playing the lottery on what the players they acquired would become (with the exception of Craig). You wouldn’t condemn Ben Cherington if Yoan Moncada failed to reach his potential, for example. The Red Sox looked at him, believed in his talent, and paid what it cost to acquire him. After that, you try your best, but if it doesn’t happen, what are you gonna do? The same scenario applies to Kelly and, to a lesser extent, a post-injury Craig. That they turned out badly doesn’t necessitate a bad pre-trade thought process. Cespedes was different in that he was a known quantity. They didn’t get any discount on him when they acquired him either. But Craig and Kelly were both available because their value was down. They were upside plays, an attempt to get better players than might normally would be available in such a deal by accepting the risks that acquiring those specific players required.

Those risks haven’t panned out and it seems reasonable to criticize the Red Sox front office for taking those risks in the first place. The Red Sox aren’t typically the kind of team that needs to take expensive risks when it comes to players. They can pay more to minimize risk, and indeed Cherington has done exactly that when it comes to free agent signings (Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley) and player extensions (Porcello). Perhaps that’s the lesson of the 2014 deadline: don’t accept damaged goods just because you get a better price. Instead, acquire the best players you can and let that be your legacy.

With the roster in its current state, it seems the Red Sox are set to make deals again this deadline. The difference is, unlike last season, it’s hard to see who Boston would part with. Craig, Napoli, Daniel Nava, and Kelly have no trade value. Clay Buchholz is hurt. Koji Uehara has another season at $9 million due, which at his age and with his injury history likely hurts his trade value significantly. Maybe trading Junichi Tarawa would make sense, except the Red Sox bullpen needs Junichi Tazawa next season. Unless Boston is willing to sell core-type players or really shake up the roster by dealing guys they just acquired last off-season, there doesn’t seem to be much on the roster or even in Triple-A that can help a contending team. Which is a weird statement to make about a roster that projection systems are still saying is the best in the American League.

So in the end, we’re back at something like a grey area, at least from an outsider’s perspective. Boston can be both a buyer and a seller in that they need players and are also not particularly close to a playoff spot at the moment. They can also not be either as there are reasons to see the team as not good enough to make the playoffs and with a roster full of undesirable players to teams with rosters good enough to make the playoffs. Weird season, huh? The only thing is to hope, whatever the true takeaway points were from last season’s deadline deals, that Ben Cherington and company took them away. The Red Sox need a win at the deadline. The season may be drawing to a close.

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Just over half a season of advanced defensive stats aren’t enough to gauge Ramirez’s future talent level in left, or tell us enough to convince us that Sandoval’s defense at third has deteriorated permanently. They are a fair description, however, of what has actually happened in the field — and it’s not good.

Among the 22 left fielders with at least 300 innings played at the position, Ramirez is dead last in UZR/150 with -36.2, about four wins’ worth of runs worse than average over a full season. That’s compared to the average left fielder, a threshold that is not exactly high. That suggests that in terms of what’s actually happened, Ramirez has cost the team two wins with his defense alone (-15.2 UZR so far, as well as -16 DRS) — and it’s not necessarily the case that the alternatives would be merely average out there in the first place. Last season, the Red Sox mish mosh of Jonny Gomes, Yoenis Cespedes, Daniel Nava, Grady Sizemore and others ended slightly above average with a 1.6 UZR/150.

Bad luck or not, Sandoval has set a new team standard for awfulness at the hot corner so far this season. At -25.6 UZR/150, Sandoval ranks 31st among 32 third basemen with at least 300 innings at the position, a hair’s breadth worse than Conor Gillaspie. The Red Sox have not been above average defensively at third base since the 2010 Adrian Beltre pillow contract year, getting increasingly soft at the position since then. Sandoval’s defense at third may not stand out the way that Ramirez’s in left field does, but in terms of total runs cost per UZR, it’s not all that far off (-12.5 UZR for Sandoval in 659.1 innings, versus -15.2 UZR for Ramirez in 535.2).

Despite a strong .287 TAv and the ability to put baseballs through the outfield wall, a face-palm-worthy -8.3 Fielding Runs Above Average has kept Ramirez’s WARP to just 0.2. Meanwhile, Sandoval has checked in with a -0.5 WARP. That’s due in part to struggles against left-handed pitching that may be behind him, but as with Ramirez, defense may still be the main factor: -7.0 FRAA.

Neither of those discrepancies are anything to shake a stick at, especially with Sandoval’s offense on the upswing. For all that, though, it’s first base that has somehow seemed to be the more urgent problem. Mike Napoli’s defense has still been above average (3.9 FRAA), but his offensive output has circled the drain (.238 TAv). It hasn’t been pretty, although considering this sport is all about entertainment, I’m not necessarily opposed to getting more David Ortiz at first.

Speaking in terms of stats up through today, and assuming for the sake of argument that both players would be better defensively at first base than they’ve been at their current positions, moving one of Ramirez and Sandoval to first base could be that kind of recalibration that solves two problems at once. Assuming that whoever replaced Napoli in the lineup would be worth at least a little bit more offensively, we’re talking about a swing of 2-3 wins, potentially, even with just 73 games left to play.

Moving one of Ramirez and Sandoval to first base could be that kind of recalibration that solves two problems at once.

If the Red Sox were to move either player to first, they might have a hard time picking between them. On the one hand, moving Sandoval is the safer solution; it’s not so big a difference, maybe, and with so much time at third under his belt, the Red Sox may be able to straddle the decision by having him play both positions a la Youkilis. If they’re comfortable moving Sandoval back and forth, Allen Craig or some other first baseman could be the functional equivalent of a backup everywhere around the field after Pedroia’s return, with Brock Holt moving off of third base and Sandoval moving over.

On the other hand, Ramirez appears to be having the bigger negative impact on defense as it is, and it’s not like he has no infield experience. Unlike with Sandoval, there’s reason to wonder if some part of Ramirez’s defensive shortcomings are a temporary adjustment; but more than Sandoval, there’s a reason to think that Ramirez’s current position just won’t work. There’s more to gain in moving Ramirez, and it probably causes less stress on the roster to boot; whereas the team might be leaning heavily on Holt to cover third if Sandoval is moved, there are at least a number of backup plans still in the outfield. If part of the idea is to get Craig in the lineup, it’s also worth noting that while Craig has been no Alex Gordon or Carl Crawford in left, he’s more than playable out there, with a -5.7 career UZR/150 and a -2.5 career UZR/150 in the outfield overall.

Before deciding which of the two players gets moved to first, however, the team still has to decide if making a change right now makes any sense at all. Here are some things that are true:

1. At 42-47, the Red Sox may need to play like a very good team the rest of the way this season to make the playoffs. Even though just six AL teams have winning records; the Sox would have to be a .550 team for the balance of the season (40-33) just to finish over .500 at 82-80.
2. The Red Sox are probably more than two adjustments away from playing better than a .550 team.
3. Mike Napoli is still projected by PECOTA to provide a .295 TAv the rest of the way, and with at least seven batted balls over 90 mph going for outs in his last 14 starts, there’s still some reason to believe he’s been unlucky.
4. Learning a new position while playing MLB games is hard, and probably comes with a not very awesome adjustment period.
5. First basemen touch the ball a lot, and if any “adjustment leakage” involves routine plays, having a player adjust to first base may be more costly than at several other positions in the field.
6. Ramirez and Sandoval can’t both move to first base right now, meaning even if a change is made and it worked, there may still be one significant problem.
7. It may be that Allen Craig offers the best offensive upgrade possible right now, not counting Pedroia returning from injury.

The factors in play for whether Ramirez or Sandoval should be moved to first base right now seem to point in a “hey maybe that’s not such a great idea” direction, and there is the potential to make things worse. It could also cause some harm to the 2016 team as well, maybe especially so if it’s Sandoval moved to first. Maybe that’s part of why we’re seeing Ortiz play some first base right now. If the Red Sox can live with that solution for much of the rest of 2015, they might have Ramirez skip over to first and go straight to DH, with an offseason thereafter to see if first is workable for him from here on out. Otherwise, regardless of whether Ramirez or Sandoval are moved off of their current positions, the Red Sox need a whole bunch of things to break in their favor.

That may be precisely why it is a good idea, though. If you need to win at least 55% of coin flips to obtain a good result, you’re much better off flipping a coin once than twice. Shaking up the status quo at two positions with a single adjustment may increase the chances of making the playoffs even without affecting the range of possible outcomes. Like a decision to play Allen Craig, moving either Ramirez or Sandoval to first right now might be exactly the right type of gamble when making a long shot push — the kind of change that comes at no cost in talent or dollars.

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We’ll start with what we have. Mike Napoli’s brutal start to the season seemed to conclude in mid-May with an equally brutal stomping of the Rangers, followed by a personal takedown of the Angels. Napoli took the opportunity to resuscitate his season against his previous employers, hitting .429/.500/1.190 in six games against them. That last number is not his OPS, it’s his slugging percentage. It looked like the Napoli of 2013 was back, and the Napoli of 2011 was taking occasional ABs too.

But then the Angels and Rangers left town and the good versions of  Napoli left with them. Since those series, Napoli has hit .193/.299/.303: bad for a glove-first utility infielder, horrendous for a slugging first baseman. But it gets worse. Don’t count those six games against Texas and Anaheim, which you can’t do, but which I’m doing anyway, and Napoli is hitting .177/.284/.292 on the season. That last number is his slugging percentage, not the number of fans willing to pay his way out of town on any given night.

Despite the lack of production, it’s hard to say Napoli’s skills are gone forever, especially while remembering what he did to Anaheim and Texas. But it’s equally difficult to imagine a contending team carrying a first baseman with a .670 OPS who, to date, has been roughly replacement level depending on the WARP-like metric you choose. I don’t know the Red Sox’s plans of course, but as they struggle to get back into the overly forgiving AL East race, one would think the date for Napoli to either snap out of it or lose his job is fast approaching.

As the Red Sox struggle to get back into the overly forgiving AL East race, one would think the date for Napoli to either snap out of it or lose his job is fast approaching.

If he does snap to and OPS .800 the rest of the season, then great. His season numbers will still look bad and it’s tough to imagine the Red Sox re-signing him at this point, but at least they’ll have received something for their money and patience. But if he doesn’t? The Red Sox are rather limited in that eventuality. They could play Brock Holt there, but that seems a waste of the multi-positional talents of \o/. They could move Hanley Ramirez there, but that seems more like an idea than something that could actually happen, like quarks, time travel, or peanut butter with bacon in the same jar. They could move Sandoval to first, but now we’re creating long term problems that don’t really solve short term ones.

The most likely player to replace Napoli as the Red Sox’s starting first baseman this season isn’t on the 40 man roster. That’s Allen Craig. Currently in Triple-A, Craig is getting on base at an over .400 clip, but with just nine extra base hits in 177 plate appearances, the power that marked his time in St. Louis appears to be gone. If Napoli continues to scuffle Craig may get another shot in Boston anyway, but even so, he hasn’t done much to date to push his way back into the Red Sox long-term picture at first base.

The same can be said about Daniel Nava, who began a rehab assignment just last night but faces an uphill climb to reemerge on this roster thanks to Alejandro De Aza.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor, www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Beyond that, they have Triple-A first baseman Travis Shaw who would likely be stretched as a major league regular given he’s slugging .373 in Pawtucket. And that’s kind of the heart of the problem. There isn’t really anyone else. Shaw is 25 and it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen for him, at least in terms of becoming a major league regular. Sam Travis just moved up to Double-A Portland and he has some promise, but he’s not going to fix the first base problem for the 2015 Red Sox. There’s a chance Travis could end up as a major league first baseman down the line, but that’s not happening this season or, very likely, next either. The system has some hitters further down, but nobody who is ready to make the jump to the majors and help at first base.

As for trade market, it’s difficult to imagine the Red Sox front office going in deep on this team right now, though things could change in the next couple weeks should they go on an honest-to-goodness winning streak. Conceivably the Brewers could make Adam Lind available. Lind is having another nice season at the plate and has another option year left under his contract. Beyond him the most intriguing free-agent-to-be is probably Chris Davis of the Orioles, and as long as Baltimore is close to first place, that would seem unlikely. Davis will be a free agent after this season, but he’ll likely cost more than Boston will want to spend in dollars and years. Even looking two years into the future, the market only offers Edwin Encarnacion, Pedro Alvarez, Justin Morneau, and *gasp* Mark Teixeira. How crazy would that be?

Perhaps the Red Sox could make a blockbuster move and acquire someone we don’t currently think is available, like a Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt. Votto is having a fine season but there’s no way the Red Sox want to be paying him through 2023, and asking about Goldschmidt is just asking to have your ear rung after whomever answers the phone in Arizona slams it down upon first hearing the word “gold.”

As for this season, I like the idea of acquiring Lind, but you have to think so will other teams so the price may be steep. Still, if Napoli hasn’t turned it around and Boston is in it at the deadline, acquiring a first baseman who slugs .500, gets on base, and with one more season under contract at $8 million could go a long way towards fixing first base both this season and next.

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So let’s do this quickly: Gunkel is a pitching prospect. The Red Sox picked him in the 13th round of the 2013 draft and he doesn’t throw hard so now you know what you need to know about Joe Gunkel. The thing of it is, I love prospects like Gunkel. He gets outs. He commands the strike zone. Those are skills I believe are under-rated amongst the scouting set. Compare Gunkel to Trey Ball and Ty Buttrey, two high-bonus high-round pitchers the Red Sox drafted in recent years now struggling in the low minors while Gunkel is having success in Double-A.

But if he does end up with a moderately valuable major league career it won’t be with the Red Sox. Gunkel was traded to Baltimore Wednesday for Alejandro De Aza, an outfielder with some power and… well, that’s really about it. De Aza is a depth piece, someone acquired in season when the back end of your roster isn’t good enough, isn’t major league quality. And that’s what makes it so odd. This deal is an indictment of the depth on the Red Sox roster.

It’s strange because at the beginning of the season Boston’s depth was one of the great things about the club’s roster. Recall during the off-season people saying, “What are they going to do with all those outfielders? They have too many! They’ll have to trade some of them for sure!” And now not only have they not traded any, they’ve traded for another one!

At the beginning of the season the Red Sox outfield consisted of Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava, Allen Craig, and Rusney Castillo, six guys with a case for starting (not to mention Jackie Bradley Jr.). But two months into the season, they’ve all fallen apart. Ramirez has hit but his defense has been so bad he’s tossed all that value right back where it came from. Betts has struggled in his first full season in the majors, though his defense has been good for the most part. Victorino has been in and out of the lineup and played decently while healthy. Nava has been bad and is now hurt. Allen Craig has been worse and is now in Triple-A. Castillo has been an adventure in the outfield, alternatively making great plays and head-scratching ones. Oh, and he hasn’t hit, either. Out of six possible good hitters the team has one. Out of six possible good defenders the team has one or two. Victorino, Craig, and Nava have been complete zeroes. How can you construct a productive outfield out of that? Answer: you can’t!

At the beginning of the season Boston’s depth was one of the great things about the club’s roster.

In the infield, Mike Napoli spent the better part of two months not hitting at all, but there was nobody to step in for him because Ortiz can’t play first base and Nava can’t hit. The recent struggles of Pablo Sandoval have highlighted the one depth player who has played well: Brock Holt. Holt has played every position except pitcher and catcher this season and done it all with acceptable defense. He’s not hit exceptionally, well but then if he could hit exceptionally well he wouldn’t be a depth player. There is no room to complain about Brock Holt’s performance except for this one thing: he can only play one position at a time.

Then we get to catcher. It’s difficult to kill the team for this because how do you predict a 23-year-old catcher to miss the season due to Tommy John surgery? Losing Ryan Hanigan was a bit more predictable considering his history and age, even if the injury itself was fluky. Both of those injuries lead to the acquisition of Sandy Leon, who is clearly stretched as a co-starting catcher but because Boston’s other catcher is now 23-year-old Blake Swihart, that’s the role he’s having to fill. The Red Sox aren’t last in offensive production from catchers but they are 26th.

The Red Sox have failed spectacularly so far this season and a large portion of that is because of previous reliable players like Sandoval, Napoli, Ortiz, and the like. But some portion of that has been because the team didn’t have anyone save Holt to step in and play adequately while the stars were hurt or finding themselves. The team’s plans for Nava and Craig, two infield/outfield types slated for the bench, fell flat because neither hit a lick. Nava is the owner of a .440 OPS this season while Craig’s is .430. Perhaps it’s not surprising the Red Sox are dead last in offensive production from right fielders. Even the Phillies’ right fielders have been better and their right fielder is Jeff Francoeur, who was trying to make it as a pitcher in Triple-A last season.

So who is at fault here? There must be someone. We knew Allen Craig couldn’t hit, right? Except the guy was an All Star a few seasons ago. Well how about Nava? He was a late bloomer so we should have expected him to fall off the cliff. But he put up a 101 OPS+ last season while playing both outfield corners and first base. The difficult part is that the logic is not difficult to follow. If the Red Sox had signed Edinson Volquez to a two year, $20 million and he’d blown up we could easily say “I told ya so!” and be right, but here that’s not the case. That isn’t to say the team’s move can’t be questioned. Clearly they should be, if for no other reason than the results have been putrid. Just that many of the individual moves that haven’t worked out made sense at the time.

Ultimately the team’s depth has failed it as much as their starters, but we’re not at the stage in the evolution of baseball where building the best bench is a cogent strategy for winning. The best benches don’t win. The best starters do. And now we get De Aza. Maybe he’s lightning in a bottle the way that Craig and Nava weren’t, but likely he’s not. Likely he’s just Alejandro De Aza, slightly supped up Carlos Peguero, and if I had to guess, he’ll end up on the scrap heap before the season is out. It’s such a waste of Joe Gunkel, and all because of the failure of depth.

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But to some extent, the Red Sox’s BABIP may always be a bit lower than their batting average would lead us to expect. After all, they play half their games in a park where this can happen:

That bit of thunder from Allen Craig’s boomstick had an estimated “true distance” of 326 feet. In only six parks would that have even hit the wall, and I’m going to go ahead and guess that at PNC Park and Progressive Field (both 325 feet), 326 feet still means “in play.” I know what you’re thinking, so I’m going to save you the time: 325 feet at McCoy Stadium.

The point is that ballparks provide some inconsistencies that you don’t have in other sports, including, say, football. Game conditions can change in football, just as in baseball, but I wonder if even that doesn’t make as much of a difference; hitters don’t have quite as much control over a ball’s trajectory in the first place as a quarterback would have. Especially if footballs were especially easy to throw for some reason.

In last week’s edition of Read Sox, Nick Canelas addressed the close connection between Deflategate and MLB’s new ball “security and storage” policy. Apparently, MLB sent a memo to teams before the season with a “nine-step procedure on ball handling” according to this AP report. From the AP report:

“Obviously, there’s not as much that you can do to baseballs,” Los Angeles Angels pitcher C.J. Wilson said. “I mean, you can’t change the density of the baseball at any point — unless you dunk them in water. Then they’re going to be 9 ounces, and everyone’s going to blow their arms out.”

As right as he’s been on hair products, I have to disagree with Wilson here. Water isn’t always a liquid, and although water vapor can’t get shampoo out of your hair, it can affect the baseball. The results are not trivial.

And weight is only part of it. In a guest piece about humidors at Baseball Prospectus four years ago, Dr. Alan Nathan explained how absorption of water can affect batted ball velocity. Published lab experiments tell us that in terms of balls hit hard enough to become home runs, baseballs stored at 50% humidity lose about 0.6 mph in batted ball velocity as opposed to balls stored at 30% humidity (used as an approximation for Denver). But humidity also affects baseballs in another, more meaningful way: it’s also about how a “mushier” ball has a lower coefficient of restitution (like a Chicago-style softball). The decrease in bounciness for the same ball would mean about a 2.2 mph difference in batted ball velocity.

From what we’re starting to see from newly-available batted ball data this year, this is probably not just about home runs — many of the grounders we see are hit just as hard as home runs (definitely a lot more than I had thought), and overall velocity seems to have a huge effect on how frequently a ball falls in for hit. It seems to really matter, although with fielding in the mix (unlike with home runs), it may be a while before we can confidently start to draw conclusions about the extent.

In the BP piece, Dr. Nathan suggested that the Coors Field humidor has likely reduced home runs there by 30±6 percent. The potential effect of a humidor at Chase Field could be even more significant; Phoenix is twice as dry as Denver. Boston, on the other hand, is in some months as different from a humidor as Denver is — just in the other direction. Although the Denver humidor suppresses offense by increasing the humidity of baseballs, 50% humidity storage in Boston would mean a decrease — and the ball would travel farther.

One good thing about calculating reductions in home run distance is that you already know which batted balls to use. The flip side isn’t exactly true; the point would be that some of the fly balls that died on the track might end up over the fence. But looking specifically at balls that were already home runs and assuming that Dr. Nathan’s distance calculations would be linear even if in the other direction, I took a look at the possible effect of humidors at all MLB parks in a piece at Beyond the Box Score last November.

Some of the results: -13.1 feet on home runs balls in Denver becomes +7.9 feet in Boston, as a humidor might reduce the humidity of baseballs from 59% (average in Boston from April to September) to 50%. I’m not sure exactly how fence height plays into this for fly balls that have almost come back to earth (I’m estimating with a 30 degree angle), but while that Allen Craig home run might only have been over the fence in two or three parks, it looks to me like another eight feet might have put it over in 15 of 30 parks. Like I said: not trivial.

Although the Denver humidor suppresses offense by increasing the humidity of baseballs, 50% humidity storage in Boston would mean a decrease — and the ball would travel farther.

According to the AP report, the MLB memo from before Opening Day specified 50 percent humidity for baseball storage. That makes complete sense: it’s the exact level that Rawlings itself uses for its baseball storage, and for that reason, it’s what the Coors humidor is set at. It’s also what I assumed in that Beyond the Box Score exercise. But if the Red Sox wanted baseball storage at that level, it wouldn’t require adding moisture as in Denver, but taking moisture out of the air.

I have no idea how the Red Sox store their baseballs right now, so take all this with that caveat. But even if the team does have a “de-humidor” that is inspected and used just before games, that doesn’t end the inquiry.

Last year, Dr. Nathan kindly confirmed that it is almost certainly more appropriate to use an average of average daily humidity levels, rather than an average afternoon humidity level — the humidity of the air can fluctuate enormously, and it gets lowest when things get hottest, making early afternoon generally the driest part of the day. Dr. Nathan noted that it took about three days for a ball to acclimate to the air in laboratory settings.

From the AP report, it seems like the balls are closely supervised — but only on the day of the game. Balls ticketed for the umpires’ room are in storage prior to that. So what happens then? And for that rate, what about the air going into the umpires’ room? Maybe there was a memo requiring them to be hermetically sealed after Jason Grimsley’s adventure in 1994, but I’m guessing there’s an air vent that, you know, air could get through.

Baseball’s version of Deflategate didn’t come in the playoffs, but in September 2010 when Tim Lincecum had some colorful things to say about the Rockies supposedly switching balls mid-game. MLB took the ball-fetching part of the procedure out of the Rockies’ hands, and with the memo this year did the same for everyone. Now, it’d be like letting the grass get long if you think you’re relying on ground ball pitchers, or watering the infield if you’re slower than the other team: if it might affect one team more than the other (fly ball pitcher coming to town?), it can still be an advantage.

Which is all to say: there’s still the potential for shenanigans here. Kudos to MLB for making a change in recognition that the Rockies aren’t the only team that could manipulate the humidity of baseballs to gain an advantage, but the Red Sox can still act the fox. Regardless of how the balls are stored, the balls turned over to the umpires’ room on Friday are stored in the henhouse for meaningful days beforehand.

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