As unimpressive as that second half was, Pomeranz still has a really good year overall, and his success wasn’t a total fluke. He had a couple amazing starts while in Boston, with one being a 7.2-inning outing against the Cleveland Indians where the only damage done was a two-run homer by a Rajai Davis – a guy who’s only really notable for playing center field badly and hitting left-handed pitching. There’s some real potential there, and with the Red Sox reeling from several injuries to their rotation, Pomeranz has a chance to take a big step forward in 2017 with his curveball-focused repertoire.

Pomeranz throws six different pitches, but only three of them were seen with any type of consistency: the knuckle-curveball, fastball, and cutter. His slider, changeup and sinker aren’t really relevant, and the results from those pitches are either terrible or form too small of a sample size to really take anything from them. The curveball is his bread and butter pitch. He’s got a lot of spin on it, which makes it very difficult for batters to barrel up, and he gets a ton of whiffs with it. If there’s one pitch that was consistently nasty for Pomeranz last year, it was the hammer. Just look at that yellow bar:

That doesn’t even account for the insane 70 percent groundball rate he gets from that pitch. Filthy.

The curveball is great, there’s no doubt about that. His second-most used pitch, the four-seam fastball, isn’t as prolific in getting swings and misses. Pomeranz still got whiffs on 11 percent of the fastballs he threw, but the problem was when they actually made contact, they were hammered. The fastball registered a .216 average against, but that came with a .441 slugging and a .225 ISO, far and away his worst marks for any pitch. His fastball has a very precarious balance to it – if he can’t get swinging strikes with it, the pitch gets destroyed, and there’s no in-between. You can stand to reason that July and September were his worst months, judging by how many whiffs he got. You’d also be correct.

The reason for the bludgeoning of the fastball is that the pitch is the complete opposite of his curveball in terms of batted ball outcomes. While his curve generates grounders, his fastball gets a lot of fly balls, as over 47 percent of balls in play were of the aerial variety. At that point, home runs become a major issue, and that really showed last year in the second half with a 1.83 HR/9. This is where Pomeranz needs to improve. If he can keep his fastballs from being turned into souvenirs less often, especially against right-handed hitters, there’s no telling what his ceiling could be. All we know is that it goes up substantially.

The cutter is where things get interesting. This pitch is the third in which Pomeranz gets swinging strikes at an 11 percent rate or higher. That’s pretty good! The issue with the cutter is that is also skews strongly toward allowing fly balls. That’s sounds pretty bad, and a lot like the fastball. The difference here is that Pomeranz gets a pop-up on 20 percent of in-play contact, while the fastball induces a pop-up at a rate less than half of that. It’s a jamming pitch to right-handers and something to for lefties to flail at. There’s still the home run issue here, but I’d like to see Pomeranz use this pitch more. The curve and four-seamer were thrown over 1100 times each, which the cutter barely broke 330. He’s got another great weapon here.

With three pitches that can be very tough on opposing hitters, Pomeranz is not going to fail from lack of opportunity. The Red Sox’s pitching depth is getting torn to shreds lately, and Pomeranz will break camp as the team’s fifth starter. His competition for keeping the job isn’t particularly fierce. Steven Wright is probably his most imposing challenger, but he’s a 32-year-old knuckleball pitcher who’s coming back from a shoulder injury, and needs near-perfect weather to have his signature pitch be used effectively. I don’t dislike Wright, but I’m going to be more pessimistic considering the circumstances. Roenis Elias is recovering from an intercostal strain that’ll cost him at least a month, Henry Owens isn’t a real threat, and Kyle Kendrick…well, let’s be honest here: you’re not going to start Kyle Kendrick.

The last thing of note here is Pomeranz’s injury history, which is a tad bit overwhelming. Like Rich Hill – the one and only guy he’s ever compared to – the curveball maven has only surpassed 150 innings once in his career. The Red Sox will need the depth to shore up whatever innings he can’t throw, because you should expect 120 innings, and consider anything past that as gravy. PECOTA sees him as coming up just shy of 150 innings, with a solid 1.9 WARP to go along with it.

There’s an ton to like about Pomeranz in 2017, from his ridiculous curveball to the fact that he’s got two other pitches to go with it. The Red Sox are saddled with him for two more years, and if they can work a mid-rotation starter out of him, the trade won’t look as bad as it has. Twelve months of a southpaw with three plus pitches? The Red Sox might end up seeing a lot more of the pitcher they traded for than they one they got.

To find out the answer, let’s go back over his year in Boston. Because he didn’t do much in terms of player movement after taking over the team until the off-season, we’ll start our review there.

Off-Season Moves

Dombrowski came in with a reputation for big moves and decimating farm systems, though that was primarily due to his time in Detroit. Still that was the worry when he came to Boston and took over control of a team with a big payroll and a deep farm system. At least initially he lived up to his reputation. His first move was picking up Clay Buchholz’s $13.5 million option. Buchholz had been hurt the year before, but had pitched well when healthy and given the price of pitching (foreshadowing!) it was and should have been an easy call. He also re-signed Sandy Leon and outrighted him off the 40 man as a way to keep him in Triple-A as a contingency plan.

Then things got big. He traded Manuel Margot, Carlos Asuaje, and Logan Allen to the Padres for reliever Craig Kimbrel. Then he signed outfielder Chris Young to a two year, $13 million deal. Then he went huge. He signed David Price to a seven year, $217 million contract with an opt-out after year three. He finished up by trading Wade Miley to the Mariners for Roenis Elias and Carson Smith.

It’s difficult to distill all of that, but I’ll try. Essentially the Red Sox were trying to win in 2016 and Dombrowski’s moves were designed to improve the major league roster right now. He tried to improve the bullpen by bringing in two top bullpen arms, paying dearly for Kimbrel in the process. Neither has been a success to date as Smith’s TJ surgery caused him to miss the season and Kimbrel’s control and health have deserted him. He’s still a good reliever but he’s not been anything close to the guy who garnered Cy Young votes for Atlanta a few years ago.

Price deserves and gets his own paragraph. He’s had such a strange season it’s difficult to know what to say, as his strikeouts have jumped and his walks have stayed down, but he’s just repeatedly gotten hit, and often all at once. The end result: He’s not been the ace starter the Red Sox are paying for. It’s this huge discrepancy more than any other single thing that looks to be the difference between a division-winning team and missing the playoffs. As of now, this contract is as big a disaster as you could have imagined with Price remaining healthy.

Chris Young and Sandy Leon are, bizarrely the huge wins here. Leon has been one of the best hitting catchers in baseball and has saved the Sox from the injuries and underperformance of the three guys they had slotted ahead of him. After a slow start, Young was fantastic against righties and lefties, which is promising, but then he got hurt and, so far, that’s been that.

Right now this off-season isn’t as bad as giving Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez expensive long-term contracts and then watching them both become the two worst players in baseball, but given the money committed, the years given up, and the minor league talent traded away, it’s pretty damn bad.

I should note there is every possibility that things look very different a year from now. Think of how Hanley is viewed now compared to this time last season, or how John Lackey went from a huge disaster to a World Series-winning hero. Things can and do change, but we’re judging on what’s happened to date and that has been downright yucky.

Right now this off-season isn’t as bad as giving Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez expensive long-term contracts and then watching them both become the two worst players in baseball, but given the money committed, the years given up, and the minor league talent traded away, it’s pretty damn bad.

In-Season Moves

Whether because of Dombrowski, lousy luck, or both, the Red Sox found themselves in need of a starting pitcher in what turned out to be a very dry market. Dombrowski got one of the only known above average starters available when he traded Anderson Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz. This was a heavy cost but the Sox were in dire straits.

They were in dire straits because Boston’s starting pitching had fallen apart mid-season. It’s difficult to get too down on Dombrowski for this considering it’s hard to plan for Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, Roenis Elias, and Brian Johnson all being unable to hold down a rotation slot for one reason or another. That’s a lot of guys to have disappear into the ether. Where you could fault Dombrowski is for signing Price and not, say, two starters. For slightly more than the cost of Price alone, Dombrowski could have brought in both Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann. Would it have been better to do that? Maybe, though it would’ve meant making a different type of bet than the one Dombrowski made with Price. In the end it meant giving up Boston’s best pitching prospect since probably Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester.

Dombrowski also traded for Aaron Hill (Aaron Wilkerson and Wendell Rijo), Brad Ziegler (Jose Almonte and the wrong Basabe), and Fernando Abad (Pat Light). Hill hasn’t hit much in a very small sample, Ziegler has thrown 11 innings and given up six runs (four earned), and Abad has been, forgive me, bad. None of these deals were ill-considered or especially reckless individually, but all of them packaged portions of Boston’s minor league depth for veteran players. Again, this was going to happen because the team was trying to win now. But there is a cost to doing these deals and eventually it catches up to you, so you’d like the players you bring to Boston to actually perform in the short time they’re here. So far, they really haven’t.

We should mention that since taking over, Dombrowski hasn’t done much in the way of pink slips. He’s kept the major league coaching staff in tact and the vast majority of the baseball operations department has remained in place as well. Mostly what he’s done is make go-for-it moves, prospects for vets, that Ben Cherington likely wouldn’t have made. And we can be pretty sure that Cherington wouldn’t have signed David Price either given he was the one in charge when Jon Lester left (though it wouldn’t shock me to read in the paper one day sometime in the future that letting Lester go was never Cherington’s idea and he was following orders from above).

The good of the Red Sox season can be found due to the young position players already on the team in Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Travis Shaw, and Andrew Benintendi. Dombrowski deserves points for not trading any of them, and for letting them develop. Similarly, we’ve made it through an entire year of Dombrowski without him dealing away Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, or Anderson… never mind.

So Dombrowski’s review probably didn’t go very well. The team is older, more expensive, and with a weaker farm system now than when he took over a year ago. The performance on the field has been improved over last season, though as has been noted at this site and elsewhere, the team has been sputtering along since May with little to recommend them as a legitimate contender, and that’s should they even reach the post-season at all, something that looks less and less likely with each lost series.

Perhaps the most interesting question in all of this is, what’s next? Does Dave Dombrowski take stock of all this and come to some conclusions about the way he’s been evaluating talent, about the trades he’s been making and the free agents he’s brought in, some conclusion that alters the way he’s been thinking about this team and about team building in general?

There isn’t any kind of answer to that question that I can provide, and truthfully, there probably isn’t one that Dombrowski can provide either. His moves haven’t worked so far, but he’s not a dumb man. He’s had success in similar jobs before. He’ll evaluate the team, the coaches, the front office, and himself based not on how they’re doing on August 12, but on how they finish the season. Red Sox fans can only hope whatever he decides to do provides better results than the returns from his first year in office.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA TODAY

It still sounds a bit surreal to say. The oft-traded pitcher, coming off an impressive first half, is now in Boston, making his first start in that iconic red-and-white home uniform as part of the Red Sox’s rotation. Dave Dombrowski finally did it, adding a starter to the much-maligned rotation at the cost of one Anderson Espinoza.

At first glance, the price for Pomeranz seemed insane. Espinoza is the Red Sox’s third- or fourth-best prospect, and early on, the rumor was that Espinoza was just part of a package for the southpaw. As the smoke cleared, however, it became known that it was a one-for-one swap, much to the relief of most of us. At first glance, it looked like the Padres had gotten the best of the Red Sox once again, seeing as they got a king’s ransom for Craig Kimbrel a few months ago. Pomeranz always had the talent but he was never this good before, and Espinoza is a teenager with an almost inexplicable feel for pitching.

The fact that Espinoza is 1. a teenager and 2. a teenager that pitches is what made the swap easier to stomach. There’s an old acronym that goes around in baseball circles here and there: TINSTAAPP. There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. Even though that’s not entirely true, as there are some that are just as good in the majors as they were in the minors (see: the entire Mets rotation), it’s a popular saying for a reason. The one thing that acronym really tried to drive home is that pitchers are incredibly volatile.

Some pitchers are incredibly good until they hit Triple-A, and then they just burn right out. Matt Barnes is a good example of this. He set fire to the low minors, striking out roughly 25% of the batters he faced, right up until his first full stint in Pawtucket, where he didn’t do anything like that. He became incredibly pedestrian. He looks like he’ll make it as a reliever, but that’s a far cry from being a part of the original Killer Bs.

Naming a Red Sox pitching prospect from the last eight years probably isn’t fair, but the point still stands. Do I think Espinoza will flame out? I don’t think so, no. But with someone so young, you just don’t know, especially when he’s still go three or four more years in the minors to go. That’s the volatility right there. Someone might be incredible at 18, but lose it at 22. Maybe even sooner than that. It’s just how it is with pitchers.

Then again, that same volatility discussion rises right back up with Pomeranz. He’s never gone over 100 major-league innings in a single season. He’s been injured a ton. His peripherals aren’t super shiny. The list goes on. He has nearly as many question marks about his present than Espinoza has about his future.

Pomeranz is a gamble, sure. But so is Espinoza, and that’s what Dombrowski did in a nutshell. He traded a gamble for a gamble. The one thing that’s changed is the timeline. If Espinoza stays being dominant in the low minors, that doesn’t help the current major-league team. It’s heartening to future Red Sox teams, sure, but then you’re rolling the dice again the next few years, hoping he keeps on being consistently amazing. If Pomeranz stays dominant, you get a massive addition to a rotation in dire need of help right now. That’s the outcome the Red Sox need, and that’s what they traded to get. Better to try for some actual rotation help than hold on tightly to a pitcher in Single-A ball. David Scheonfeld of ESPN’s Sweet Spot Network posed an interesting question regarding this:

So if the Red Sox win the World Series and Espinoza turns into Pedro Martinez (maybe a stretch, I don’t know), are Red Sox fans happy?

— David Schoenfield (@dschoenfield) July 14, 2016

Would you be content with that? Because I would be.

The trade doesn’t wreck the farm system either. Sure, it gets kind of thin between the Moncada/Benintendi/Devers tier and the rest, but in the end, there wasn’t a package traded – just one guy. Our own Ben Carsley even talked about the Red Sox still trading for Julio Teheran this last weekend, utilizing some of that depth the Red Sox saved by only trading Espinoza. The farm system is still strong. One guy leaving won’t change that.

So here we are, on the cusp of the new pitcher’s first start with a lot of doubt still hanging around. That’s fine. Right now, Pomeranz is good and we can only hope he continues to be that way. There are some promising signs compared to his last couple years – less contact allowed, more swinging strikes, fewer hard-hit balls – that give one some hope for the future. Hell, it’s not like there’s a high bar to clear here. As long as he isn’t the current incarnation of Clay Buchholz, he’ll fit right in. The Red Sox just need him to not be egregiously terrible and he’ll be fine, even though that might not live up to what they traded to get him.

The Red Sox are now betting on Pomeranz instead of Espinoza, and hoping they get a massive payout. It’s hard to say right away if it’ll work. Pitching is very hard and pitching professionally is incredibly difficult to do and to predict. If it works, it works, and you reap the rewards. If it doesn’t, at least they took a chance to drastically improve the team.

Winston Churchill once said that pitching is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Or, that could’ve been about Russia. Same difference, really.

The Red Sox have a 69.2 percent chance to make the playoffs, and as of 6:00 pm EST last night, their no. 4 starter was an injured Sean O’Sullivan.

That’s why Dave Dombrowski did this, and his ability and willingness to make this deal is why the Red Sox hired Dombrowski. Ben Cherington wouldn’t have made this deal. There’s a pretty good chance Cherington would have been ill at the sight of this deal. But the Red Sox want to and can win now, and to win now you need some semblance of a starting rotation. That’s probably the no. 1 reason why Cherington is gone.

We don’t need to dive too deep to figure out why A.J. Preller did this. The Padres are bad, and he’s found a way to sell Drew Pomeranz at the absolute height of his value. In return, a system that Preller dismantled about 18 months ago gets its new centerpiece in Anderson Espinoza, baseball’s no. 24 prospect in BP’s most recent ranking. This is the type of move you dream of making in your dynasty league. Espinoza currently owns a 4.38ERA in Single-A Greenville, which may have you wondering what all the fuss is about. Said fuss comes from the fact that he’s at such a level at age 18, and that pretty much every scouting report you can find on him indicates that he has a freakish feel for pitching, an explosive fastball, and godly upside.

Read the rest at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by Jake Roth/USA Today Sports Images

But let’s start at the beginning and work from there. The beginning, at least as far as the Red Sox are concerned, is the 2016 Major League Draft. Groome wasn’t the consensus top pick, but he was close. Baseball America had him as the best available talent in the draft. Baseball Prospectus’s own Chris Crawford had Groome first overall on his board as well, as did Perfect Game. ESPN’s Keith Law wasn’t nearly so high on Groome, pushing him all the way back to second on his draft board. The Red Sox had the 12th choice in the draft so Groome seemed certain to be picked by the time they got their chance, but as it turned out, he was available and the Red Sox, unaccustomed to seeing a potential top-of-the-rotation pitcher sitting there, snatched him up.

The Red Sox, unaccustomed to seeing a potential top-of-the-rotation pitcher sitting there, snatched Groome up.

It wasn’t just dumb luck that Groome was sitting there undrafted after 11 picks. There were reasons he was available. As a high school pitcher Groome had the ability to go to college and re-enter the draft in three years. Groome initially committed to Vanderbilt University but then just before the draft he de-committed and re-committed to a junior college in Florida instead. Doing this gave him the ability to re-enter the draft next season instead of waiting three years. For any team that drafted him, this meant Groome has increased his leverage in negotiations.

The other reason a 17-year-old almost-consensus top talent was available was because he possessed, as the scouting community terms, makeup issues. This is a nice and unspecific way of saying Groome is immature, kind of a jerk, or has done something illegal or at least morally wrong. As nobody went on record saying what the specific issues were, it’s likely one of the first two. Even so, these kind of things can be severe enough to spoil the pick, as in the case of Red Sox 2013 draft pick Jon Denny. Or they can be wildly overblown, as in the case of Nationals star Bryce Harper. The team was certainly privy to whatever issue(s) caused Groome to fall and they drafted him anyway. That doesn’t mean they are unimportant, just that in the organization’s estimation, they aren’t a deal-breaker, for whatever that’s worth. In time, the reasons Groome was drafted hopefully will out-shine the reasons he fell. The Red Sox hope so, in any case.

So what did the Red Sox see in Groome? For one thing, he’s 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds. You might not call that the exact ideal pitcher’s build, maybe an inch or two shorter would be preferable, but it’s close. Size like that has its advantages, and maybe most importantly, you can’t teach a player to get larger and stronger. Players have maximum sizes that they can reach based on their body type and Groome’s is maximum size is larger and stronger than most. That’s good when it comes to standing up to the rigors of major league pitching. The good thing about the height is that it provides extra downward plane on his fastball. Additionally, when you release the ball closer to the plate, it takes less time to get there, and gives the batter less time to react. It’s like additional velocity without the wear and tear on a pitcher’s arm. The danger is at that height it can be difficult to maintain consistent mechanics, but so far that hasn’t been an issue for Groome.

Groome isn’t just some physical specimen though. His fastball touches the mid-90s and with a player of his age coming out of high school, there is always the ability to gain strength and thus increase velocity once he enters a professional setting. There are high schoolers who throw hard and high schoolers who are tall and strong, and they typically get scouts excited about their potential, but the ability to pitch at the major league level requires more than size and velocity; it requires command, control, and stamina. Groome was ranked so highly because he has plus-plus secondary pitches including a curveball that is reportedly fantastic. He also throws a changeup that is supposedly a fine pitch but it’s the curve when combined with the fastball that makes his pitch mix so intriguing. Add that pitch mix and the good command that he’s shown and you get a dominating pitcher who struck out 77 batters against nine walks in 43 high school innings pitched.

The fact that teenagers still have much physical and mental maturation remaining makes teenaged pitching prospects that much more impossible to project accurately.

Pitching prospects are notoriously difficult to develop, so it makes sense to stock up and deal from depth when you have to, which the Red Sox did. You may recall TINSTAAPP, an acronym for There’s No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. You could add to that and coin the acronym TINSTAATPP by throwing the word “teenaged” in there as well if you weren’t worried anyone actually pronouncing that would spit all over the unfortunate person sitting across from them. The fact that teenagers still have much physical and mental maturation remaining makes teenaged pitching prospects that much more impossible to project accurately. Drew Pomeranz himself was the fifth overall draft pick before bouncing through three different organizations. It wasn’t until his he reached his fourth team, the Padres, that he started to reach the potential for which he was drafted back in 2010. This uncertainty of projection applies equally to Groome and Espinoza.

Like Espinoza, Groome represents a single shot at the seemingly unreachable, that of a home grown ace-level starting pitcher. But Groome is not Anderson Espinoza, he’s a different person, a different pitcher. He is younger and has less experience. He’s left-handed. But for now, for the Red Sox, he’s not really any different. Just like Espinoza was, Groome is promise, he is projection, he is nebulously the future. One day he may step on the mound at Fenway with the weight of all his promise on his shoulders. Or he may be a trade chip to use before a deadline in seasons to come. That doesn’t matter now though. For now, the Red Sox have a badly needed starting pitcher in Pomeranz, and they have a new ‘future ace.’ It doesn’t particularly matter whether his name is Jason or Anderson. Either way. Hooray for the present. Hooray for the future.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Yoan Moncada weighs in at no. 2, with BP citing his “explosive power/speed combination.” That seems about right for a 21-year-old with a SLG of .500+ and 39 steals across High-A and Double-A this season.

Andrew Benintendi is next up at no. 11, and BP praises him as a player capable of “maintaining a high average, getting on base and slugging the ball.” He now checks in as the third-best OF prospect in baseball.

The Sox snuck one more player into the top 20 with Rafael Devers ending up at no. 19. BP says “his plus hit and plus power tools make for a special profile,” especially if he can stick at third base.

Finally, Anderson Espinoza is the lone Sox pitcher on the list (what a bummy organization), coming in at no. 24. BP says his stuff is “ridiculously advanced,” citing a double-plus fastball and two potential plus secondary offerings.

Let’s just not talk about the fact that Manny Margot ranks at no. 16 here, and instead let’s celebrate! You can read the full list with more in-depth commentary here. Enjoy!

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/USA Today Sports Images

Which was true. In two years on the JV team I never had smoke blown up my ass, not once. I never saw smoke machine, a lit cigarette, a pair of rubber gloves, or anything else that might be necessary to get the unsavory job done either  during or after practice. The origin and history of such a line has always escaped me, perhaps because I’ve studiously avoided googling “blow smoke up ass” but, assuming you’re not a practicing proctologist, perhaps it’s best we move on, except to say this. Red Sox fans: I’m not here to blow smoke up your asses.

This has been an awful month for the Red Sox. In addition to a lousy record, they’ve lost repeatedly in painful fashion, showed a complete inability to pitch, hit in the clutch, field at crucial moments, and, adding injury to injury, endured injuries to key players. So it’s not been good. And because of all that, and because of the resulting anger, sadness, and general negativity surrounding the Red Sox, I thought it might be time to focus on happier things. Because while we’ve been so busy being angry, throwing things, swearing, and writing really mean things on Twitter about the team before reconsidering how silly it would look at the last second and deleting it, there are actually a lot of very good things going on with this team. Right now even! It’s true. Let’s look.

The Youth

Of the nine players who have comprised the most common lineup, five of them are 26 years old or younger. They include the starting shortstop, center fielder, right fielder, third baseman, and catcher, who collectively average 24.6 years. That’s incredible. And the amazing thing is there looks to be three long-term All Stars in that bunch too. This isn’t a group of random young players assembled because there weren’t other better choices, this is the group you’ve been waiting for as long as you’ve been a Red Sox fan. Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley are the core of a multi-pennant winning franchise. This could be the start of something great.

Remember those incredibly annoying Yankees teams from the late 90s and early 2000s? The ones winning division title after division title and racking up World Series trophies? They were built on a foundation of youth, and even more so, of a group of very good players of similar age spending their careers together. When the Yankees won their first World Series of that era in 1996, Derek Jeter was 22 years old. Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada were 24, Mariano Rivera was 26, and Bernie Williams was 27. When that group had won their final World Series in 2009, Jeter was 35, Pettitte and Posada were 37, Rivera was 39 and Williams had retired.

There were many other players along the way worth mention, but the point is, when you have a core group that good, you can fill in around the edges. You bring in veterans, bring up competent youngsters, and try to supplement the core as much as possible, but when you’re starting with that kind of quality at the beginning, you don’t have to do an amazing job to reach the final goal. The Yankees, with that group, gave themselves a huge advantage and over the years, and they managed to take advantage of it a lot. The Red Sox are setting themselves up to be in a similar spot.

The System

With Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, the catching tandem of Swihart and Vazquez, and Shaw, who may not be a star but looks to be at least a starting-quality third baseman, the Red Sox are already doing well on the youth front. But then there’s Andrew Benintendi, another center fielder (after Bradley and Betts) who is burning through the system. Yoan Moncada looks like he could be the third baseman, left fielder, or first baseman of the future. There’s Rafael Devers, who at 19 has more power in his bat than anyone in the system, which, considering the system, is saying something. There’s also Anderson Espinoza, Michael Kopech, and maybe, hopefully, Jason Groome. Some of those guys won’t pan out, and some will be dealt, but there is a tremendous amount of talent coming. We often say as a fan base that we want to be competitive, which is partly why this past month has been so dispiriting, but this level of talent on the way virtually guarantees competitiveness. And hopefully it should do a lot more than that.

The Ownership 

We love to knock the owners here in Red Sox Nation. I’m guilty of it as well on occasion, but the truth is it’s hard to ask for better owners than the Red Sox have had in John Henry and Tom Werner. They’ve made missteps for sure (losing Theo Epstein is a Grade A sin in my book) but think about what they’ve accomplished. They renovated Fenway Park, the jewel of baseball, and made it fit for another generation. I’m bringing my kids there next week for their first trip and they can’t wait. Would we care as much about the Red Sox if they played in a dome in Southie? We’d still care, but the connection to the past, and the environment the games exist in, these things matter. And Henry and company are a huge reason why the team still has Fenway.

They’ve hired smart people and let those people do their jobs unencumbered. Again, there have been missteps along the way (Bobby Valentine comes quickly to mind and hopefully leaves as quickly) but Theo Epstein, GM of two World Series winners, was allowed, before he could call himself that, to trade the face of the franchise in Nomar Garciaparra for a decent starting shortstop and a backup glove-first first baseman. Later Ben Cherington was allowed to ship the team’s stars, virtually all of them, to LA for essentially nothing at all. There are more examples, but those stand out to me as among the most egregious and still, the men in charge were allowed to do their jobs, and in doing so, they followed an unlikely route to a championship.

David Ortiz

Finally, be thankful for David Ortiz. We’ve covered him here extensively and I imagine we’ll be doing so more as the season winds down, but please, be mindful of what we’re watching. Remember what Ortiz has accomplished in his career, the amazing hits, the hundreds of homers, and the shockingly clutch performances. Then look at what he’s doing right now. He’s authoring maybe the greatest age-40 season of any player ever. But whether he succeeds in finishing that and scrawling his name into the record books once again or not, this is a season that we should be thankful for because, ultimately we’re watching one of the greats both at the end of his career and in his prime.

The Future

For all those reasons, the team’s youth and expectations for improvement, their impressive stable of minor league prospects, their ownership, and the great Big Papi, rejoice, Red Sox fans! Maybe, like at the end of Ghostbusters 2, the team just needs to feel some positivity, some love, to push it in the right direction. But even if the 2016 season doesn’t end in a championship, know that the future is promising, friends. And that ain’t nothing. Indeed at the end of a month like June, remembering that can pull you back from the brink and remind you that things can and will get better.

Winning some damn games now and again wouldn’t be a bad start, though.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Marco Hernandez (SS/2B)

Marco Hernandez was acquired in the Felix Doubront trade with the Cubs at the 2014 trade deadline. At the time he looked like a light-hitting middle infielder, having posted below average TAv marks at the Low- and High-A levels of the Cubs’ system. Since joining the Red Sox organization he has developed into an offensive threat. He opened his Red Sox career at Double-A Portland in 2015 and hit well enough (.289 TAv) to earn a mid-season promotion to Triple-A Pawtucket. There, he slashed .271/.300/.409 (.266 TAv) which is a step down from what he was doing in Portland, but likely represents his adjustment to the higher level of pitching.

He opened this season at Triple-A and has gotten back to his excellent offensive ways. In 81 plate appearances he has .330 TAv, the highest mark he has shown at any level. Of course, I need to note that this performance has come in a small number of trips to the plate and that Hernandez is carrying a .417 batting average of balls in play, but there are positive developments. For example, his plate discipline. Hernandez’s walk rate is higher this season than it was last year at the Triple-A level, and, even better, he has paired it with a lower strikeout rate. Having a solid command of the strike zone is something that will help him get to the next level and succeed once there.

We saw Hernandez make his major league debut with the Red Sox earlier this season. On April 17, he started at second base, giving Dustin Pedroia a day off, and went 1-for-2 with a single, a walk and a stolen base, and was the Red Sox’s top offensive contributor by win probability added. We saw how he can impact a game at the plate and with his speed on the base paths. While I have focused on Hernandez’s offense, he is no slouch on defense. Taken together, Hernandez has the potential to be an asset in the major leagues as, at least, a bench, utility infielder role. Once the pitching rotation is settled and the bullpen is sorted out I would like to see the Red Sox get back to carrying (no more than) a 12-pitcher staff and consider adding Hernandez to the bench.

Quick updates on Rusney Castillo (OF) and Blake Swihart (C, OF)

Since we last checked in with Rusney Castillo on April 25, he has made 41 trips to the plate, collecting just six hits (three doubles) and two walks. All told he has a .227/.289/.280 line (83 PA) on the season, which is just bad.

Blake Swihart has made five starts in the outfield without any reported disaster and is still getting starts at catcher, so that route back to Boston is not yet closed. Regardless, his offense has stalled since returning to Pawtucket. He is not hitting for power (.042 isolated power) and not getting on-base at tolerable rate (.284). I hope the demotion did not break him.

Double-A Portland: Ty Buttrey (RHP) and Chandler Shepherd (RHP)

Last season, Buttrey was quickly promoted from Greenville to Salem after showing overpowering stuff in his four starts at the lower level. However, he did not show the same ability at the higher level. In 21 starts at the higher level his ERA was almost two runs higher, largely a result of getting fewer strikeouts and allowing more walks. Regardless, Buttrey was promoted to Double-A to start the 2016 season. Unfortunately, the trend in fewer strikeouts and more walks has followed him through his five starts, leading to a poor runs-allowed total. Control really seems to be his issue. In his 22.0 innings, he has walked as many batters (14) as he has struck out, and hit five of them. His last start was arguably his best of the season with regards to control, as he only walked one batter, struck out two and threw 60 percent of his pitches for strikes over his five innings of work. Ideally this is an outing he can build on.

Buttrey’s teammate, Chandler Shepherd is a reliever who has not struggled with the same control issues that have plagued Buttrey to date. In 10 appearances out of the bullpen (16.1 innings), Shepherd has held opponents scoreless seven times, striking out 20 of the 64 batters he has faced, while only walking five. He had been cruising along, dominating opponents until his most recent outing, which was his worst on the young season. Over two innings he allowed three runs on two home runs and walked two batters. The tough day raised his 2016 RA9 from a respectable 2.51 to a not-so-great 3.86. Regardless, it was one poor outing and generally Shepherd has been a real bright spot for the Sea Dogs so far this season. He looks to be another relief option for the Red Sox in the not-too-distant future.

High-A Salem: Travis Lakins (RHP)

Lakins was selected by the Red Sox in the sixth round of last summer’s amateur draft. He pitched for Ohio State for two seasons before entering the draft. There are questions about whether Lakins can stay in a starting role as he progresses through the system, but so far he is pitching well enough to remain a starter. If you drop his first start – which was pretty rough (3.2 innings, five hits, four runs, three walks, three strikeouts) – from consideration, Lakins has made five strong starts, posting a 2.93 RA9 (3.09 FIP), a 30-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and has only allowed one home run. That is an impressive line for the 21-year-old. Continuing to perform as he has should keep him in a starting role for the foreseeable future and could even lead to a promotion to the next level this season where he will be challenged by better hitters.

Updates on the Big-Three:

Andrew Benintendi continues to dominate High-A pitching to a ridiculous extent. He went hitless on Saturday for just the third time this season, which snapped his 23-game hit streak; a Salem Red Sox franchise record. His season line sits at .368/.424/.624. It is not clear to me what else he has to learn at this level. Power? He only has one home run, but has seven triples and 13 doubles and a .256 ISO. Plate discipline? I suppose he could walk more often than he has, but he has more walks (11) than strikeouts (8) and does not appear to be having difficulty making solid contact. I think it is time to promote him to Double-A. Full disclosure: my advocating for his promotion is partly selfish, as I will be in Portland on Thursday to watch the Sea Dogs and want to see Benintendi play. Make me happy, Mr. Dombrowski.

Much of what I wrote about Benintendi can be applied to Yoan Moncada. He too is ready for a promotion to the next level. Since we last checked in with him, Moncada’s season line has dipped slightly to .317/.450/.510, but those are still tremendous rates. I wouldn’t mind watching him on Thursday either, Mr. Dombrowski. Make the move.

To go along with his Big-Three teammates, Rafael Devers seems to be coming out of his early season struggles. Over his most recent 49 plate appearances he has a .250/.327/.477 line, with two home runs, two doubles, a triple, five walks to seven strikeouts, and two stolen bases without getting caught. Things are moving in the expected direction.

Low-A Greenville: Anderson Espinoza (RHP)

Espinoza is the Red Sox’s top pitching prospect. At just 18-years old, he is really young for the Low-A level, but his youth has not really affected his performance. Of his six starts, four have been strong (18.1 innings, three runs allowed, 26 strikeouts, six walks) and two have been clunkers (8.2 innings, ten runs allowed, nine strikeouts, three walks). All told, he has 35 strikeouts in 27.0 innings, which is absolutely fantastic. If he can pair his swing-and-miss stuff with an ability to consistently generate weak contact he will be a true force on the mound. How the Red Sox handle Espinoza’s development through the minor leagues will be interesting to see. Given that he is still young for the Low-A level, it makes sense that he will stay with Greenville for the duration of the 2016 season, continuing to work on his efficiency and developing his arm strength. However, if it gets to the point where he is not challenged by Low-A hitters then moving him to Salem is probably the better course of action. Either way, avoiding rushing him and potentially risking injury is paramount, as he has a high ceiling.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

There is absolutely no debating that in Anderson Espinoza, the Red Sox have one of the pitching prospects with the highest ceilings in all of baseball.  For every questionable signing the Red Sox have made in the last few years, Espinoza is not to be counted among them.  In fact, having signed out of Venezuela for $1.8 million dollars, or a smidge over 2 percent of what it cost to sign Rick Porcello, he is poised to become quite the bargain.

If you aren’t familiar with the name, now is time to get acquainted.  This J2 signee has a lot of growing left to do but is remarkably advanced for his age.  Standing at six feet tall but just 160 pounds, Espinoza looks every bit the slender teenager he is. While his stature isn’t yet major-league ready his fastball and delivery are close.  With an easy delivery and repeatable mechanics, Espinoza can hit 99 MPH on his heater and has quality secondary offerings. His curveball already shows flashes of being a plus pitch and the changeup has plus potential and is improving rapidly.

Possessing such top-notch stuff has made Espinoza a prime target for the internet hyperbole machine, which is already comparing him to Pedro Martinez.  While such a comparison is wildly unfair, it does illustrate the excitement building around Espinoza’s ability.  Espinoza came in at number 73 on our Baseball Prospectus Top 101 and, along with Kolby Allard, he was one of only two players 18 years old or younger to make the cut.  Baseball America and MLB.com were even higher on his current skills, ranking him at 19th and 39th, respectively.

What Went Right in 2015?

Everything, and that’s not a joke.  As a 17-year-old Espinoza flat out dominated both the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League, earning a season-ending promotion to Low-A Greenville.  Across those three levels the right-hander posted a 1.23 ERA and WHIP of just 0.94, having just one poor start at the end of the season.  That is not normal.  A 66/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 innings as a teenager isn’t normal.  As they say, “This is what they look like folks.”

Just have a look at his delivery and how athletic he is.  Espinoza looks so smooth and balanced when he delivers a pitch and has a calmness on the mound that belies his age.  There is very little effort in his delivery and his mechanics are remarkably repeatable for someone so young.  Most kids his age would be facing high school batters, but he looks cool as a cucumber facing professional hitters.

What Went Wrong in 2015?

Well, nothing went wrong for him in 2015.  Who would complain about a 17-year-old throwing close to 100 MPH and making it all the way to Greenville in his first year?  If there is one concern with Espinoza it relates to his size. Despite the easy delivery and relatively clean mechanics, it’s always a bit scary to have a player at such a young age and with a slight build throwing so hard. The ease of his delivery helps assuage some concerns, but Espinoza is a pitcher, and that means that at some point he’s going to battle an injury or two. But as of yet, Espinoza hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.

Future Outlook/MLB ETA

Along with Yoan Moncada it’s fair to say that Espinoza possesses one of the highest ceilings in the Red Sox system and arguably one of the highest in all of the minor leagues.  Along with Lucas Giolito, Julio Urias, Alex Reyes, and Dillon Tate, he is one of the elite few who have the stuff to become a front of the rotation ace.  With a low innings total from last year, Espinoza is likely to begin the year at Low-A Lowell or maybe Single-A Greenville and stay there for at least half of the year.  If things go well, he could reach High-A Salem to close out the season, though that would be a very aggressive assignment.

In a best-case scenario Espinoza isn’t likely to sniff the big leagues until late in the 2018 season when he turns 20 years old.  At that point David Price will be in the last year before his potential opt-out and Eduardo Rodriguez should be in the beginning of his prime.  Should Price exercise his option to leave, Espinoza and Rodriguez could provide two worthy replacements at the top of the rotation, and considering the price of free agents, an internal ace could be worth hundreds of millions. That’s a lofty goal to place on any minor leaguer, but if any minor leaguer can reach it, it’s Espinoza.

Photo from MLB.com 

Last Year’s Red Sox List

The State of the System: This system is so young it doesn’t even get an allowance yet, but boy is it talented.

The Top Ten

1. 2B Yoan Moncada
2. RHP Anderson Espinoza
3. 3B Rafael Devers
4. OF Andrew Benintendi
5. RHP Michael Kopech
6. OF Luis Alexander Basabe
7. 1B Sam Travis
8. LHP Brian Johnson
9. SS Deven Marrero
10. C Austin Rei

1. Yoan Moncada, 2B
DOB: 05/27/1995
Height/Weight: 6’2” 205 lbs
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed March 2015 out of Cuba for $31.5 million
Previous Ranking(s): Unranked
2015 Stats: .278/.380/.438, 8 HR, 49 SB in 363 PA at Low-A Greenville
Future Tools: 70 speed, 60 hit, 60 glove, 60 arm, 55 power
Role: 70—Perennial All-Star second baseman

When you’re given as much money as Moncada was and hyped as the best thing to come out of Cuba since Daisy Fuentes, expectations are going to be high. All things considered, it’s safe to say he met them, especially in the second half of the year. The swing is slightly “prettier” from the left side, but there’s plus bat speed from both sides of the plate, and it stays in the hitting zone long enough to lash line drives all over the field. He’s ripped, and that strength and some leverage give him above-average power, even with a swing that doesn’t incorporate much loft. He’s a very smart hitter who shows advanced selectivity at the plate, and while that also comes with some strikeouts, the walks help compensate. Like Homestar Runner he’s a terrific athlete with plus-plus speed, and he’s going to provide tremendous value on the bases.

Moncada does not have the same skill set defensively, but it should be enough for him to stick at second base. He doesn’t always get great jumps, and like most kids not old enough to drink there are both physical and mental mistakes aplenty. Still, there’s more than enough athleticism to compensate, and his plus throwing arm stands out at the keystone.

There’s a little more work to be done than anticipated, but it shouldn’t surprise if this ends up being the guy we call the best prospect in baseball next year—maybe even this summer.

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy take: What else is there to say about the third-best fantasy prospect in baseball? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here—if everything comes together for Moncada, his fantasy numbers could look something like whatHanley Ramirez put up in his 20s. That’s both incredibly exciting and an incredibly unfair statistical comp to put on someone, but he could be the top second sacker for fantasy by 2018.

Major League ETA: 2017

Read the rest of the article for free at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com