The good times were short-lived. The Red Sox fell out of first after splitting the series with the Twins. They then got swept by the Tigers and went 5-6 on their 11-game west coast trip. Wednesday’s loss to the Mariners, exactly two weeks after reclaiming the division lead, left them out of a playoff spot for the first time since April 25.

Now the Red Sox are in the midst of a Wild Card race that’s set to come down to the finish. The Blue Jays and Orioles are tight in the race for the East, while the Tigers and Indians could go back and forth in the Central over the next two months. Meanwhile, there are the Red Sox, who sit a half game behind the Tigers for the second Wild Card spot. The Mariners (3.5 games) and Astros (four games) aren’t too far behind either.

The Red Sox are in a wild chase (no pun intended) for their first postseason berth since 2013. But just how well do they stack up with the teams they’re competing with over the final eight weeks of the season? Let’s look at the good, bad and what lies ahead for some of those teams (sorry, Houston and Seattle).

Red Sox (60-50)

The good: This is obvious for those of us who have followed the team all season. The offense is among the best in the majors, scoring the most runs in baseball and owning the sixth-best TAv (second in the AL). The bulk of their lineup sits in the positive BWARP category, while Mookie Betts (5.0 BWARP) is in the AL MVP discussion. Although the Red Sox’s pitching has been its downfall (more on that below), Rick Porcello (3.33 DRA, 3.74 FIP) continues to be a steady force while David Price finally looks like the pitcher the Sox thought they were getting when they signed him in the offseason. Meanwhile, Craig Kimbrel’s return gives Boston the late-game stability it was lacking early on in this rut.

The bad: The Red Sox still haven’t gotten the consistent pitching they need in order to make a legitimate postseason run. They rank 15th in DRA, 12th in cFIP and 16th in ERA. Price’s resurgence has improved that ranking while Eduardo Rodriguez has been better recently, but Steven Wright has proven unpredictable of late and Drew Pomeranz’s Red Sox tenure has been underwhelming at best. Meanwhile, the bullpen has handed the Red Sox frustrating losses in the past two and a half weeks, as the likes of Brad Ziegler — who, in all fairness, has been good overall — Fernando Abad and Robbie Ross can attest to. That probably contributes to their 13-14 record in one-run games. And just how long can the Bryce Brentz/Andrew Benintendi combination work in left field?

What lies ahead: It doesn’t get any easier. The Red Sox have another 11-game road trip after this week’s short homestand. That’s part of a string of 29 of the Sox’s final 52 games coming away from Fenway. Fifteen of those final 52 games come against the Orioles and Blue Jays. That’s good and bad. The good news is that means ample opportunity to gain ground in the playoff race. But that also means some tough tests to close out the season.

Orioles (63-47, lead AL East)

The good: Offensively, the O’s are just as dangerous as the Red Sox. They lead the majors in home runs (163), with four players at the 20-homer mark, and are third in ISO (.184). They have baseball’s home run leader in Mark Trumbo and a possible MVP candidate in Manny Machado (4.45 BWARP). Although win-loss records mean next to nothing for pitchers, the O’s have consistently won with their ace, Chris Tillman, on the mound, which the Sox have yet to prove they can do. They also have the third-best bullpen ERA in baseball thanks to the likes of Zach Britton (1.85 FIP) and Brad Brach (2.46).

The bad: Baltimore actually has a worse starter’s ERA than the Red Sox at 4.91. That’s because the O’s lack depth behind Tillman. Kevin Gausman has a decent 3.79 DRA and 4.35 FIP, but the dropoff from there is significant. It’s bad enough to the point that the O’s traded for Wade Miley at the deadline. Key positional players Hyun-Soo Kim and Matt Wieters have also battled injuries. As Matt Kory pointed out last week, Baltimore’s run differential (+30) is more than half of both the Red Sox and Blue Jays. In theory, if those margins more accurately reflect themselves in the standings, that could mean trouble for the O’s going forward.

What lies ahead: The Orioles have been as streaky as any team in the majors as of late, and how that manifests itself over the final eight weeks could drastically change the postseason picture. Their remaining schedule and more evenly split between home and road, although there are a pair of long road trips mixed in there, and plenty of matchups with the Blue Jays and Red Sox.

Blue Jays (63-49)

The good: Toronto has the fourth-best run differential in the majors and the second-best in the American League to the Red Sox. That’s a testament to having two of the best power hitters in the game in Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion and arguably the best starting rotation in the AL East. Donaldson and Encarnacion’s combined 57 homers place the Blue Jays second in the majors in both home runs (159) and ISO (.185). They also have the best starter’s ERA in the American League. Aaron Sanchez has had a breakout year with a 2.85 ERA, 3.37 DRA and 3.28 FIP, while Marco Estrada (3.78 FIP) and J.A. Happ (3.80) are having their best seasons in years.

The bad: The fact that Toronto has succeeded this much with two of their stars underperforming is impressive. However, the Blue Jays could use more from Jose Bautista and Marcus Stroman. Bautista’s .271 TAv is his lowest mark since 2009, while his 15 homers thus far is underwhelming. Stroman (3.86 DRA) is just as good for a seven-run clunker as he is for a quality start. Roberto Osuna (2.28 FIP) and Joseph Biagini (2.27) have been strong out of the bullpen, but the drop-off from there is significant as Toronto owns the 19th-ranked bullpen ERA in the majors. The Blue Jays are 13-19 in one-run games.

What lies ahead: Aside from a seven-game west coast swing against the Angels and Mariners, the Blue Jays have by far the friendliest schedule in the division to close out the season. They split the rest of their slate evenly between home and away, have a series with the Twins at the end of the month and have a combined six series between the Rays and Yankees. The addition of Francisco Liriano gives Toronto a six-man rotation going forward. Whether or not that proves effective is to be determined.

Tigers (61-50)

The good: The Tigers are arguably the hottest team on the list. Their eight-game win streak, which included a sweep of the Red Sox, propelled them into the final Wild Card spot before losing it the next night. But they still won nine of their last 10 entering Sunday. Detroit is led by a dangerous lineup that includes Miguel Cabrera (3.18 TAv), Ian Kinsler (.298), Victor Martinez (.293) and J.D. Martinez (3.16), while the rotation has been carried by the resurgence of Justin Verlander, who owns a 2.86 DRA for the season and a 1.85 ERA in his last seven starts, and the emergence of rookie Michael Fulmer, who has allowed three or more runs in just two of his starts since May 15.

The bad: The rest of the pitching staff has been less than stellar. Mike Pelfrey and Anibal Sanchez have been negative PWARP players, while Jordan Zimmerman has struggled to stay healthy. Detroit also has the worst bullpen ERA (4.15) of any team mentioned in this piece, as it’s been forced to rely on Justin Wilson (2.82 DRA), Alex Wilson (4.41) and closer Francisco Rodriguez (3.01) late in games. The Tigers’ +24 run differential is also the worst of any team on this list, which suggests that their current pace will be difficult to keep up.

What lies ahead: If Detroit is to remain hot and in the thick of the postseason race, it is going to need to overcome a two-week stretch that includes a west coast trip and a series against the Red Sox at home. Being in the AL Central has its perks, however. The Tigers have 10 more games against the Twins, nine more games against the stumbling Royals and a season-ending series against the Braves. That should be enough to make them favorites for a playoff spot.

Indians (62-47, lead AL Central)

The good: The Indians have by far the best pitching of any team in the race. They may just have the best pitching in the American League. Cleveland is second in the majors in DRA, second in cFIP and eighth in ERA. They have a trio of studs in their rotation in Corey Kluber (2.64 DRA), Danny Salazar (2.73) and Carlos Carrasco (2.76), while right-hander Josh Tomlin (11-4) is tied for the best win percentage of any starting pitcher on the team. The bullpen has been solid as well, with Cody Allen and Dan Otero bold holding ERAs under 3.00 and the addition of Andrew Miller giving the Indians a legitimate closer. Cleveland also has legitimate power with the seventh best ISO in baseball and the ninth most home runs. Francisco Lindor, meanwhile, has given Xander Bogaerts a run for his money as the best hitting shortstop in the American League.

The bad: As impressive as the likes of Lindor and Jason Kipnis have been at the plate, the Indians’ offensive production has been top heavy, leaving Cleveland 12th in the majors in TAv (.269). The Indians in general haven’t been very good lately. They lost three of four to Minnesota last week and were swept by the Orioles not long before that. Salazar (8.84 ERA in his last four starts) and Carrasco (10.24 ERA in his last two starts entering Sunday) have recently had some of their worst performances of the season.

What lies ahead: Cleveland doesn’t quite have the cupcake schedule the Tigers have the rest of the way. Despite the Indians being the better team, the strength of schedule could be enough to put Detroit atop the division and Cleveland fighting for a Wild Card spot before long. The Indians have eight series remaining against teams still in the playoff race, and that doesn’t include the makeup game against the Red Sox next week. Those matchups could make or break their chances at holding the AL Central lead.

***

The Wild Card race will seemingly come down to starting pitching. All contending teams can hit – at least in the American League – but what separates teams like the Blue Jays and Indians is they also have good pitching. That alone should make them the favorites in their respective divisions going forward. The Tigers may be the least talented of the listed teams fighting for the Wild Card, but they also have by far the softest schedule remaining.

That makes the Red Sox and Orioles – at least in my opinion – most likely to be the odd team out come October. The Sox have shown their offense can only carry them so far, but the recent play of Price, Porcello and Rodriguez provide hope that things can still turn around from a pitching standpoint. You can look at Baltimore’s run differential one of two ways. Either that it’s bound to catch up with it at the end of the season, or it’s a testament to the Orioles’ elite bullpen.

Regardless, the Red Sox are in the thick of a Wild Card race against teams with similar characteristics as them that is destined to come down to the final week of the season. Their strengths stand out above the rest, but so do their flaws. How they manage those flaws (and that juggernaut of a schedule) will determine where they are come October.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Things are back to looking terrible in the land of the Red Sox. Coming off a series sweep against the Athletics on the weekend, that included a thrilling seven-run eighth inning comeback in Sunday, they have continued the two steps forward, two steps back cycle by losing all three games Baltimore. The good news is that Hanley Ramirez is hitting again, Xander Bogaerts looks great at the plate and in the field, and Eduardo Rodriguez has been a huge shot in the arm for the rotation. But there are still too many players performing poorly. The up and down play of late has the Red Sox seven games under .500, and seven games back in the American League East. Unfortunately, as the Red Sox continue to spin their tires, the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays have been playing well. This weekend the Red Sox battle those Blue Jays in an important intra-division series at Fenway.

Toronto Blue Jays – Record (31 – 30) – Projected Record (82 – 80)

The Blue Jays roll into Boston on an eight-game winning streak. They have the best run differential in the American League, and a corresponding first-order winning percentage that would put them atop the division. However, by third-order measures, which adjust for underlying statistics and quality of opponent, they are still behind the Yankees. The run differential is largely a function of Toronto’s offense, which has scored the most runs in the league (325). The closest team, the Yankees, has scored 50 fewer runs. Their .274 TAv ranks third behind the Dodgers and Yankees, but their 116 wRC+ is tied for the top spot with those Dodgers. While the offense bludgeons teams, the pitching, still not a strong suit (4.22 team ERA on the season), has been much better (3.88 team ERA in May/June). Jose Reyes is back at shortstop after being disabled by a rib injury, and Jose Bautista’s shoulder has healed to the point that he can play right field. But the Jays are not entirely healthy. Rookie sensation Devon Travis is still on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, forcing Ryan Goins into an everyday role at second base, and Edwin Encarnacion is currently also dealing with a shoulder issue, which has limited him to the DH role. Coming into Boston, the Jays look much more like the fringy contending team they were projected to be at the start of the year. Although it must be noted that they had a similar run of strong performance to the one they are on now last season, winning nine in a row at the end of May, before ultimately fell apart.

Probables:

Joe Kelly vs. Drew Hutchison – Friday, 7:10pm EDT

The enigma that is Joe Kelly continues, and while for now the Red Sox have opted to keep him in the rotation he needs to be better. The ERA is still an ugly 5.40, 35% worse than league average, and even though his fielding-independent pitching mark of 4.15 suggests his ERA could see some reduction, it is not exactly desirable. He pitched well in his last start, going 6.0 innings, allowing four hits, one run, had six strikeouts and only two walks against a good Texas offense. Ideally he can build on that outing and limit the Toronto offense that has already knocked him around twice this year.

In some ways Hutchison is like Kelly in that he has great stuff but struggles to consistently put together strong outings. Over his last five starts he has interleaved good and bad outings, with the middle good one an excellent, complete-game shutout of the White Sox. His strikeout rate is more in line with career marks than it was earlier in the season, and he is posting a career low 5.8% walk rate. Some of that reduction in walk rate may be because he is throwing his fastball much more often that he did last year, largely at the expense of slider. The increased fastball use has also contributed to opponents making more contact, but a lot of it (20.5%) has been marked as soft. If there truly is a trend in Hutchison’s outings then a bad one is coming Friday night.

Clay Buchholz vs. R.A. Dickey – Saturday, 1:35pm EDT

Buchholz’s last start broke a streak of excellent outings, but he has still been the Red Sox’s best starting pitcher non-rookie left-hander division. His ERA still sits above 4, but his start against the Yankees in early April is really making that look worse than it is. Take that start out and his ERA is 3.75. But mulligans aside, he has a 2.92 FIP, which is 17^th best in the game and demonstrates that he has pitched better than his ERA indicates. Buchholz has done a great job for this team, but unfortunately his solid starts have often been wasted due to a lack of run support. Hopefully he starts another run of strong starts on Saturday.

Dickey has still yet to fully show his Cy Young form as a member of the Blue Jays. His ERA is right up there with Joe Kelly at 35% worse than league average, but unlike Kelly, Dickey’s FIP does not foretell positive things. At 5.41 it suggests that his ERA is basically right in line with how he has pitched. The knuckler is a fickle beast, and this year it has been turned around for too many long balls. Dickey has allowed at least one home run in two-thirds of his starts this season, although his HR/FB% of 15.3 is much higher than his career rate, and generally not a rate that is sustained over the long term.

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Marco Estrada – Sunday, 1:35pm EDT

You may not have heard this but Eduardo Rodriguez has been tremendous since getting the call to the big leagues two weeks ago. In three starts (20.2 innings) he has only allowed one run, eight hits, and has struck out three times as many batters as he has walked. He has a slightly unsustainable left-on-base rate of 100%, but let’s ignore that for now and embrace the beacon of hope that is #Ed. His outing on Sunday will present a real test as the Blue Jays offense is very good, and they have a tendency of crushing left handed pitching (more on that below). If he navigates the Jays offense unscathed, then the Red Sox might have to declare him the ace of the staff, a title they have been loath to bestow on anyone.

Estrada came to the Blue Jays this offseason as part of the trade with the Brewers that sent Adam Lind to Milwaukee. Originally slotted for a bullpen role, he was transferred to a starting role at the start of May in an effort to shore up the rotation after Daniel Norris was optioned back to Triple-A Buffalo. As a starter he has performed about as well as was projected, posting a 4.54 ERA and 4.27 FIP in 52.1 innings. He doesn’t really do anything spectacularly well, and doesn’t really do anything terribly, other than being a bit homer-prone (1.40 per nine). Basically, Estrada is a league-average or slightly worse pitcher giving the team innings in the fifth rotation spot, which was not the original plan, but a decent plan B. He is the kind of starter the Sox offense needs to beat up on.

Opposing Lineup:

As mentioned, the Blue Jays’ offense has been the best in the game so far this season. The 2-5 spots in the order present a significant challenge for opposing pitching; there is a lot of right-handed power there. Josh Donaldson (16 HR, .369), Jose Bautista (11 HR, .393 OBP), Edwin Encarnacion (13 HR, .309 OBP), and Russell Martin (8 HR, .360 OBP) can knock the ball out of the yard and are excellent at not making outs. Edwin still has not fully gotten going yet, and is, as noted above, dealing with a shoulder problem, but he is still a threat to take the parrot out for a stroll.

This offense is scary, and they are downright terrifying if you are a left-handed pitcher. The Blue Jays are the best offense in the game against lefties. The lineup I suggest above is already really right-handed heavy, but it can be more so when Danny Valencia (.315 TAv v. LHP, .203 TAv v. RHP) is inserted into the lineup at first base or in the outfield, replacing Justin Smoak, or Chris Colabello. The Sox are lucky that Wade Miley will not start in this series.

Recap

I am basically repeating myself from the last time I previewed a weekend series between the Red Sox and Jays, but I think we should expect plenty of runs and probably a bunch of home runs. These teams have spent the first part of the season in the bottom third of the runs allowed and home runs allowed leaderboards. In their six previous contests this season, they have split the wins, combining for 59 runs, and 11 home runs. Offense is the way these teams are designed to win, and hopefully the Sox’s version shows up and breaks the Jays’ recent run of strong play.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox had quite an interesting week. Coming off a bad series against the Yankees, in which they were swept and at times looked inept, things somehow got worse when they lost Hanley Ramirez to a shoulder injury in the first inning of Monday’s game against the Rays. They lost that game 5-1, again looking hapless at times. But then rode a pair of Mookie Betts’ bombs and another solid start from Rick Porcello to win the middle game of the series. Another Mookie homer made things interesting in the rubber match of the series but they ultimately took another series loss. This weekend the Red Sox continue their long stretch of games within the American League East, heading to Toronto for a battle with the Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays – Record (14 – 15) – Projected Record (81 – 81)

The Blue Jays, like the Red Sox, have played below expectations thus far. Their offense is scary (currently tied for 10th by TAv at .270), but the pitching has been problematic (4.83 team ERA). The Jays are dealing with injuries to a key players (Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista) and have not had production from some of the younger players they expected to be ready for greater responsibility (Dalton Pompey, Aaron Sanchez, Miguel Castro). They have scuffled along to a 5-5 mark in their last 10, with a +9 run differential on the season that more or less matches what PECOTA projects the rest of the way.

Probables

Wade Miley vs. Aaron Sanchez – Friday, 7:07pm EDT

Miley has been a disaster for the Red Sox thus far. His 4.00 FIP suggests he has pitched better than his 7.15 ERA, but that 4.00 FIP mark is still below league average. Miley’s issues thus far are not really a case of being unlucky (.303 BABIP), but rather a case of lacking control (his 10.9 BB% is up 3.5% from his career level) and allowing more contact than usual (his 12.9 K% is down 5.4% from his career level). Regression in these numbers, and his remarkably terrible 47.6 left-on-base-percentage (LOB%), should get him back on track. Ideally he can build on his last start, when he held the Yankees to three runs over seven innings of work (his longest outing of the season), scattering seven hits, walking nobody and striking out three. This weekend will be a real challenge for Miley, as he will need to work through a right-hand-heavy Blue Jays lineup that can really put up runs.

Sanchez, the much-touted prospect for the Blue Jays, has struggled in his time in the rotation this season. He has thrown 25.1 innings for the Jays this season, has walked 20 batters and struck out 21. That is an ugly ratio. The lack of control has made it such that he has yet to get through six innings. His start against the Red Sox on April 27th was one of his better outings this season, as he struck out seven and only walked two. Coming into the weekend he has a 4.62 ERA and a 5.88 FIP. He is projected for a similar ERA but a one-run improvement in FIP (4.90). I suspect that if the Blue Jays can get someone to slot into the rotation via trade or from within the organization, Sanchez will be heading back to the bullpen, where he excelled in 2014.

Joe Kelly vs. Drew Hutchison – Saturday, 1:07pm EDT

Joe Kelly has been perplexing thus far. He has great stuff, but struggles to leverage that stuff and put together dominant starts. He has the fastest fastball in the league (96.4 mph) that he should be able to use to set up his secondary offerings. But his trouble commanding the pitch, and perhaps an over reliance on those secondary pitches, have limited his effectiveness. The good news is that he is striking out many more batters than he is walking, and an above average FIP (3.71), so that 5.72 ERA could see some reduction. He has given up five runs in each of his three starts, only one of which lasted at least 6.0 innings, which are both streaks he should aim to break this weekend.

In the eyes of many, 2015 was going to be the season that Hutchison took another step forward, improving on his 1.6 WARP 2014 season. PECOTA was not expecting much improvement, projecting him for 1.3 WARP. So far he has taken a step backward. He has allowed six runs in each of his last two starts, has only pitched more than six innings once. His 15.9 K% is a career low, and his 8.3 BB% is the second highest mark of his career. All of this adds up to a 7.47 ERA and 5.16 FIP, neither of which are at all desirable.

Clay Buchholz vs. R.A. Dickey – Sunday, 1:07pm EDT

I wonder if ‘Clay being Clay’ will ever become a phrase around Fenway Park. He is some sort of an enigma and on an outing-by-outing basis he is remarkably difficult to predict. He has made six starts this season with runs allowed totals as follows: 0, 10, 2, 1, 5, 5. Three good ones, and three bad ones. Runs allowed are certainly not the whole story, but they provide some insight into the roller coaster that has been Buchholz. His ERA is gross (6.03) but his 2.95 FIP suggests he has pitched much better than that ERA would suggest. He is striking batters out at a career high rate (27.4 K%), and walking batters at a career-low rate (6.9 BB%), but has been unlucky on balls in play (.407 BABIP). One of those bad starts (5 R in 2.2 IP) came against the Blue Jays last week, so hopefully he performs better on Sunday.

The pitcher of house Dickey has, much like the rest of the Jays rotation, performed poorly to date (4.38 ERA, 5.22 FIP). He has never fully shown his Cy Young form as a member of the Blue Jays, but has consistently thrown at least 200 innings for them. He is projected for around that mark this season. In his last start, against the Yankees, Dickey went eight innings, allowing one run on three hits, so perhaps he has figured something out with his knuckleball. That or the increase in temperature that came with getting to May was a natural aid. The current forecast for Toronto calls for rain on Sunday, which could mean the dome is closed, another supposed natural aid to the knuckler.

Opposing Lineup

The Blue Jays’ lineup has a lot of right-handed power. Navigating the Josh Donaldson (6 HR, .374 OBP), Jose Bautista (5 HR, .344 OBP), and Edwin Encarnacion (4 HR, .271 OBP) sequence three (or four) times a game is a significant challenge for opponents. Edwin has been struggling so far this season, but he is still a threat.

1. Devon Travis – 2B -R
2. Josh Donaldson – 3B – R
3. Jose Bautista – RF – R
4. Edwin Encarnacion – DH – R
5. Justin Smoak – 1B – L
6. Russell Martin – C R
7. Kevin Pillar – LF – R
8. Michael Saunders – CF – L
9. Ryan Goins – SS – L

To some extent the lineup as written above depends on Bautista being inserted back into the outfield. If his shoulder is better and he feels he can throw the ball then this is the lineup the Red Sox are most likely to see. If he is still dealing with soreness and needs to DH then Encarnacion will play first base, and Ezequiel Carrera (or Danny Valencia) will be the right fielder, moving Justin Smoak to the bench. If Bautista is playing rightfield, Valencia will probably be the first baseman on Friday against Miley, as his primary skill is hitting lefties (.315 TAv v. LHP, .203 TAv v. RHP). The Saturday and Sunday games will probably involve Smoak or Carrera.

Recap

What does all of this mean? Well, expect plenty of runs and probably a bunch of homers. The Rogers Centre is a launching pad and these two teams have spent the first month of the season exchanging the honour of worst ERA in the league. As noted, the Blue Jays are currently ranked 28th with a 4.83 ERA, and the Red Sox are ranked 29th with a 4.86 ERA. Fielding independent numbers don’t tell a much better story for these teams, as the Jays are last in the league with their 4.81 FIP, and the Red Sox are 23rd at 4.31. All told, these teams were built around scoring a lot on offense and hoping the dam doesn’t break on the pitching and defense side of things. It could be a wild series.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images