There is, however, a bullpen-boosting trade out there that doesn’t involve Rafael Devers or Jackie Bradley Jr in Baltimore: old friend Brad Ziegler!

Ziegler, as you surely remember, pitched — and well! — for the Red Sox over about 30 innings in 2016. He posted a 1.52 ERA, 2.71 FIP and a career-best 16.1 percent strikeout-to-walk ratio while with Boston. He left for Miami that offseason (can’t really fault him there) and it hasn’t gone as well since. In the last two years, Ziegler’s posted 5.06 ERA, 4.22 FIP and a 6.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Maybe the best news of this hypothetical trade is that it’d cost the Red Sox next to nothing. Ziegler’s a tier or two down from the top and it’s quite the buyer’s market this year — Kelvin Herrera went to Washington for their 10th- and 11th-best prospects.

A reunion would immediately bring the Red Sox something their bullpen is mightily lacking with — a ground ball guy. Ziegler’s getting grounders at a 72 percent clip, which ranks 2nd of all qualified relievers. The Red Sox best ground ball pitcher is currently Matt Barnes, who gets them at a 55 percent clip.

If you’re worried about some of his other peripherals, I don’t blame you. The amount of hard contact he’s allowing skyrocketed from 28 percent last year to nearly 42 percent. He’s already allowed a career-high six home runs this year. There are some red flags.

The good news is that of late, he’s been better. This piece on his resurgence breaks it down nicely – Ziegler’s suffered from some bad luck and worse defense. Since being taken out of the closer’s role, Ziegler has collected seven holds and allowed only two runs in 21 innings pitched.

That’s great news for the Red Sox, who clearly don’t need a closer. I’d hear an argument that they don’t really need a set-up guy this season either, regardless of what my eyes and heart and last three years of evidence tell me. The back-end of the bullpen can be terrifying at times, but it’s worked so far. Brad Hand or Zach Britton would be awesome, sure, but having a not-barren farm system is awesome as well.

The team doesn’t need Ziegler to save or anchor the bullpen, unlike in Miami where he’s spent time as both the set-up guy and the closer. His stellar performance since returning to a middle-innings guy is encouraging, and the idea of the Red Sox having another strong mid-innings guy with an elite ground ball rate is a tantalizing one.

So far in our series we’ve seen incredibly exciting offseason possibilitis (trade for Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt or Chris Sale) and the extraordinarily mundane (sign Carlos Beltran and Brett Cecil, call it a day). I present to you an option somewhere in between:

How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz’s production?

I thought about this one a lot. It’s true that the Red Sox should still have a very good offense in 2017, but I think people are selling short just how dramatic the loss of Ortiz will be. He was one of the best hitters in the game last season, brought a much-needed lefty bat to a very right-handed lineup and was one of only three sources of big-time power for the Sox. Dombrowski can’t just say “the young guys will get better” and leave it at that. And I don’t think he will.

Edwin Encarnacion makes some sense, but he’s right-handed, will cost a draft pick and will probably require a lengthy contract. Jose Bautista fits, but there were some pretty troubling signs in terms of his production last year. I liked Jake Devereaux’s idea of trading for Joey Votto, but that means adding another huge contract and would also require trading substantial prospects. I mulled over a trade for Carlos Gonzalez, but the Rockies might sneaky flirt with a Wild Card spot next season. I thought about Ryan Braun, but he’s also right-handed and will cost a lot to acquire.

So I think the Red Sox fix this one of two ways. First, they sign Carlos Beltran to a two-year contract. He’s a switch-hitter, he won’t cost a draft pick and he won’t need a long commitment. The downside is he’s no longer an elite bat, but he’s good enough to add more depth and balance to the lineup, and he can DH 90% of the time in Boston.

Second, I think the Red Sox make a trade for the White Sox, but not for who you think. I think they trade for Todd Frazier.

Yes, he’s right-handed, and yes, his average sank big-time last year. But we know the White Sox are in sell mode, the Red Sox have no idea what to expect at third base and Frazier is still good and young enough that he can be considered an impact bat — he did hit 40 homers last year, albeit with a bad OBP. He’ll cost a pretty penny, but nowhere near what Votto, Braun or CarGo would require. He also won’t block Yoan Moncada long-term, as he’s a free agent after the 2017 season; one the Sox can re-sign if things go wrong with Moncada, or one the Sox can attach a Qualifying Offer to if they’re ready to let him walk.

Who goes back to Chicago? Blake Swihart, for starters. It’s not what I would do, but it’s clear to me from the beat writers that Dombrowski does not have faith in Swihart’s ability to catch. I disagree, but this is what I think will happen, not my plan. Joining him will be Mauricio Dubon (sorry, Matt), Williams Jerez and Henry Owens. Also coming back to the Red Sox will be Nate Jones, who we’ll get to in a minute.

How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?

It’s tough to see the Red Sox going all-in on Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen after giving up so much for Craig Kimbrel a year ago. I also don’t see a Mark Melancon reunion in the cards, though I’d be fine with it. Instead, the Sox will make the relatively minor move of re-signing Brad Ziegler to a two-year deal to be their seventh-inning guy.

The real big improvement will come in the form of Jones, who’s under an affordable contract through 2020 with a good team option for 2021. Jones has a troubling injury history and is older than you’d like, but he’s also coming off of his best season and has high-leverage abilities. He’s not perfect, but if he’s on the mound he’d be a big improvement over anything the Sox ran out in the eighth inning last year.

“No left-handed reliever,” you ask? I’d go get one, but I think Dombrowski tries Fernando Abad out again. I doubt he makes it past May, and I can’t wait to hear Red Sox Twitter complain about the lack of LOOGY for two full months, until Dave overpays for one at the deadline. Wee!

Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?

Not in a major way, no. The Sox already have six reasonable options, plus a palatable Triple-A arm in Brian Johnson. I think they add some depth that can compete in Spring Training and then go to Pawtucket — let’s say Henderson Alvarez — but your rotation for next year will be David Price, Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez and Clay Buchholz, with Steven Wright heading back to the bullpen until Pomeranz or Buchholz inevitably gets hurt.

Chris Sale and Jose Quintana are tempting, but they’ll just cost too damn much. The A’s have no reason to sell low on Sonny Gray, the Indians no reason to sell one of their good young pitchers, etc. And the FA market … god is it bad. Dombrowski saw this coming, and that’s part of why they gave away Anderson Espinoza for Pomeranz last summer.

Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?

Given the current composition of Boston’s farm system, this really means “will they trade Moncada, Rafael Devers, Michael Kopech or Jason Groome?” I’m pretty confident the answer is no for Moncada — he’s too good and too close. Devers is the best bet to be moved, but in the situation I’ve imagined he doesn’t have to be. With the pitching prospects, who knows. It wouldn’t surprise me if Dombrowski thinks they’re untouchable or if he trades one of them for Tyler Thornburg. We’ll have to wait and see. It’s tempting to sell high on Kopech right now, but on the other hand some of the reports we’re seeing are ungodly.

Miscellaneous Thoughts:

What about Travis Shaw? It’s back to Triple-A for them, which means the Red Sox will actually have a little depth. That’s a good thing!  Who will the third catcher be with Swihart gone? Let’s see if Chris Iannetta accepts a minor-league deal.

Heath Hembree? He’s the odd man out in this scenario. As a commenter pointed out below, he’s out of options, so he might be shopped for a C-level prospect. Alternately, the Sox could keep him and not re-sign Ziegler.

What does Pablo Sandoval do with Frazier aboard? Nothing, until he proves he can hit. If he does, he can work himself into a 3B/1B/DH rotation with Ramirez, Beltran and Frazier, especially against RHP. But counting on Sandoval for production is a fool’s errand. Anything he gives this team is a bonus.

Biggest Acquisition: Todd Frazier
Biggest Loss: Blake Swihart
Biggest Surprise: A White Sox trade, but no Sale/Quintana

Projected 2017 Opening Day Roster:

Photo by Rick Ostentoski/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA)

It was a close one – only .004 WPA separated this play from second place – but Troy Tulowitzki’s go-ahead RBI single won out, with a .242 WPA. It was the culmination of a very sloppy inning from Brad Ziegler, who had given up two hits and walked a batter before facing Tulo. The Red Sox could not and would not answer, despite having multiple opportunities in the end. Not the best note to finish on, but it’s probably nothing anyway.

Bottom Play (WPA)

Strangely enough, it was in the same inning. Ziegler’s only saving grace was a grounder that went straight to Brock Holt at third base, and he made the most of it. That double play came with a -.198 WPA, only a smidgen worse than Jackie Bradley Jr.’s game-ending groundout. Holt started a number of good plays in this game, like this double play in the first inning. Hitting second in the order, though? Probably not his thing.

Key Moment

You know that second-best play I mentioned earlier? It was when Hanley Ramirez got to 30.

Trends to Watch

David Ortiz is retiring when this October business is all said and done. Just in case you didn’t know.

Coming Next

Playoffs! The Red Sox will travel to Cleveland to face the Indians in Game 1 of the ALDS. That’ll be on Thursday, and it’ll be Rick Porcello facing off against Trevor Bauer. First pitch is TBD for now.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA)

Joaquin Benoit vs. David Ortiz with men on base in a huge spot.

You’ve heard this story before. You already know the ending.

That’s a .367 WPA. For reference, the grand slam in the 2013 ALCS has a .452 mark. If it wasn’t for what Dustin Pedroia did in Anaheim, this would be the biggest hit of the season so far.

Bottom Play (WPA)

In a game that went back and forth so often, there really weren’t that many negative plays to go around. But in the bottom of the sixth inning, the Blue Jays tried to respond to Ortiz’s homer by leading off with a single from Ryan Goins. Devon Travis came up against Brad Ziegler, and promptly grounded into a double play. That was worth a -.118 WPA, easily the worst mark from either team.

The weird part is, MLB.com didn’t make this a highlight. What they did make into a highlight was Ziegler striking out Edwin Encarnacion to end the inning. Sure, it’s cool, but…c’mon.

Key Moment

Since the Ortiz homer is all you’re going to be seeing and hearing, I’ll pick something different here for the sake of not sounding like a broken record. Koji Uehara came into the game in the eighth inning, and with one out and a man on first, he faced the reigning AL MVP, Josh Donaldson, and got a double play out of him. Huge for the Red Sox and especially for Koji, because if he’s well and truly back, the Red Sox will be a lot more terrifying come October.

Trends to Watch

1. Koji being a legitimate eighth inning option again. He’s come from being out for the rest of the season, to maybe being able to pitch in October, to locking down key at-bats against an in-division rival in September. Adding another reliable reliever to Kimbrel and Ziegler would do wonders for this team.

2. The Red Sox kicked off a stretch of 23 straight games against divisional opponents with a strong series win in Toronto. While they don’t face the Blue Jays again until their last series of the year, the Red Sox play Baltimore seven times until then, and as of right now, Baltimore is tied in the standings with Toronto. Being able to get four wins out of those contests would go a long way for the Red Sox.

Coming Next

The first of those games against the Orioles comes on Monday. Baltimore will start Wade Miley, while the Red Sox send out David Price against a team that, surprisingly, is 26th in the majors in OPS when facing left-handed pitching.

Photo by Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA)

Mookie Betts. .327 WPA. Eck’s reaction to this is superb.

Bottom Play (WPA)

Not Mookie Betts, but Brad Ziegler did his job (again), and Xander Bogaerts wasn’t about to let Mark Trumbo’s grounder get past him. That twin killing was worth a -.151 WPA. The lack of Mookie Betts is somewhat tolerable, I guess.

Key Moment

Mookie Betts’ second bomb of the game.

“Against the Orioles – they have no answer!” – Dave O’Brien, doing a great job on this one.

Trend To Watch

More homers from Mookie Betts, I guess?

Also Eduardo Rodriguez is unhittable. Four hitless innings with seven strikeouts before getting taken out because of hamstring tightness. You’d have to go all the way back to June to find a start where he gave up more than three runs, and for most of that span, he has been between good and absolutely dominant. Welcome back, Eddie. We missed you.

Coming Next

More games, which means more chances for Mookie Betts to hit more homers. This time it’ll be against Dylan Bundy, one of the few Orioles pitchers he hasn’t personally victimized like some sort of athletic Regina George. The Red Sox will send out David Price in what might be his biggest start of the year so far.

Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA)

Wasn’t the most dramatic of plays, but Brock Holt’s slow-bouncing RBI single in the 11th inning goes here. That go-ahead hit was worth .291 WPA, and might not have happened the same way had shortstop Shawn O’Malley let it go through. Other than the two games on Sunday and Monday, the Red Sox have been struggling with timely hitting during this road trip, but they did just enough to get out of Seattle with a couple wins.

Bottom Play (WPA)

In the bottom of the 11th, Brad Ziegler was called upon to get a save. With a man on third, he got Seth Smith to swing at a pitch that might’ve not been more than a foot off the ground at its apex. That’s some classic Brad Ziegler stuff right there. Smith’s whiff came with a -.152 WPA, and stranded yet another runner, bringing the final combined tally of runners left on base at 21. That’s an incredibly Sisyphean amount of guys not scoring.

Key Moment

While Fernando Abad did far better in this one than in his first outing, he still couldn’t get the crucial third out, and in failing to do so, brought Robinson Cano to the plate. So Farrell, not interested in watching a repeat of Tuesday’s game, immediately called for Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel got an inning-ending 4-3 groundout to send this game to extras.

Kimbrel stayed in for the 10th, and burned through the heart of the Mariners’ order.

Nelson Cruz? Smoked.

Adam Lind? Embarrassed.

Kyle Seager? More of the same.

For a guy who’s been skewered about not performing well in non-save situations, Kimbrel torched four good hitters on 14 pitches over 1 1/3 innings. Not too shabby.

Trend to Watch

What do the Red Sox have in Drew Pomeranz, exactly? He’s been consistently frustrating during his four-start tenure with the team. He walked six guys in this one, and that might’ve been his second-best start so far. He’s always prone to have one bad inning and four or five good ones, but it’s that bad inning that does him in. Not only that, he’s allowed five homers in his 20 1/3 innings with the Red Sox, while not allowing a single one in the 21 innings prior to getting traded. No one certainly thought he was going to hold up his 2.37 ERA, but he has been less than impressive so far.

Coming Next

The Red Sox return to southern California to face the other Los Angeles team, the Dodgers, now managed by old friend Dave Roberts. It’ll be Steven Wright versus Scott Kazmir in this one, and remember: the last time the Red Sox visited Chavez Ravine, Jake Peavy went the distance and Mike Napoli did this:

So don’t miss out on this.

Photo by Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA)

No surprise here, as the top play was the go-ahead home run (+.408) from Miguel Cabrera in the top of the ninth. There is a lot to dissect on this play, but let’s not lose sight of the most important aspect: Cabrera is a monster. Not many players can inject the kind of fear into an opponent every time they come to the plate, but he is one of them. He took an inside fastball — albeit one from the soft-tossing Brad Ziegler — and launched it out to the opposite field. That’s not fair.

With that being said, the ball probably should’ve been caught. It just barely left the yard, hitting the top of the short wall in right field. Mookie Betts makes those catches all the time, and had every chance to do it again on Wednesday. Instead, the sun wreaked havoc on Betts’ eyes, and the right fielder completely lost the ball for a split second. That was enough to send him slightly off track and leave him flailing for the fast-dropping ball. At night, that ball is probably caught. Them’s the breaks.

Bottom Play (WPA)
Full disclosure: This play involves Betts in a negative light as well. It wasn’t the best game for him, but he did contribute the game-tying triple in the bottom half of the eighth that had a decent chance of turning into an inside-the-park home run. That has nothing to do with the bottom play, but I didn’t want to bury Betts too much.

The truth is, Boston didn’t have many chances in this game with AL Rookie of the Year favorite Michael Fulmer cruising through most of the contest. They did get a leadoff base runner in the sixth, though, after Brock Holt started the frame with a single. Betts could’ve extended the rally, giving Boston some much-needed life. Instead, he promptly grounded into a 6-4-3 double play (-.120). That was the team’s fourth inning in which only three batters came to the plate of the last five frames.

Eduardo Rodriguez was…fine?

Ideally, Rodriguez would develop into the front-line arm that many wanted him to be and he’d be able to keep them ahead in games when the opposing pitcher has it going as well. That’s not who he is, though, as there will be some flaws in every game. Still, he showed off some solid stuff in this one, striking out six batters in 5.1 innings, five coming on the fastball and one on the slider. However, he also lost his control in the third — an inning in which Detroit plated two runs — and had some spotty command overall. The box score will show that he was singled to death, with just two extra base hits out of nine total hits, but many of those singles were ripped. They either went hard off the wall or were directly at fielders. Still, Rodriguez gave you exactly what you want out of his spot in the rotation overall, the offense just couldn’t hold up its part of the bargain.

The Bullpen was…fine?

The story should’ve been that the bullpen was more than fine. Matt Barnes and Clay Buchholz did their job in middle relief, throwing 2.2 scoreless innings with just one base runner allowed. Brad Ziegler, who is arguably the only truly trustworthy arm in the ‘pen right now, gave up the aforementioned home run to Cabrera. Still, this was a relatively encouraging day for a bullpen that needed one.

Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are Good

The Tigers relied on the middle of their order on Wednesday, and it paid off. Cabrera and Martinez came up to the plate a combined ten times and reached base nine times. God damn.

Coming Next

Well, here comes the road trip we’ve all been dreading. It’s going to be a long trip, with 11 west coast games coming up and exactly zero days off in between. They get started right away on Thursday night in Los Angeles to take on the Angels. David Price looks to turn things around on another coast as the Red Sox offense looks to get back to its high-powered self against Jered Weaver. First pitch comes at 10:05 ET because the Pacific Time Zone is dumb.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): David Ortiz is responsible for this, of course. With one out and Dustin Pedroia on third base in the bottom of the first, Ortiz sent a Jake Odorrizi offering into the Monster to make it 3-0 Red Sox. Ortiz ends the first half at .332/.425/.675 with 21 homers and 34 (!) doubles. He’s 40 years old. Let’s never have this end.

Bottom Play (WPA): Good ole Logan Morrison got this one out of the way early, striking out with runners on first and second to end the top of the first inning (-.042). The Rays would sting a few balls off David Price as the evening progressed, but they would never truly challenge again for the remainder of the game.

Key Moment: Common sense says the Ortiz bomb, but I’d argue the moment was Price getting out of the first unscathed. Much has been made of Boston’s struggles in the first inning this season, and for good reason. Price escaping any damage felt like a bigger deal than it was, and our left-handed ace looked like the guy the Sox backed up the truck for last offseason.

Price’s final line, for those who missed the game: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 BB and 10 K. Not bad.

Trend to Watch: It’s not really a trend, I suppose, but damn did Brad Ziegler look good in his Red Sox debut. Arizona’s former closer (and Boston’s temporary one?) struck out Evan Longoria and Brandon Guyer to start his tenure with the team, then got Morrison to ground out to end the game and the first half. Ziegler isn’t quite as good as a healthy Carson Smith, but considering the minimal cost it took to acquire him and his effectiveness as of late, this should prove to be a savvy move by Dombrowski.

Coming Next: The All-Star Break, which will not be a break at all for five Red Sox who are attending (Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Wright and Ortiz) and one who’s having surgery (Kimbrel). The Sox return to regular season action on Friday, when they head to New York to take on the Yankees. Eduardo Rodriguez is scheduled to get the ball against Michael Pineda, so expect lots of runs!

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images