Just over a week into the 2016 campaign, the trends have been confusing for the Red Sox. Some nights, they look like a redux of the last two seasons, buoyed by a pitching staff that can’t stop a college lineup. Other nights, they look like a redux of the 2013 team that had some weird aura around them that prevented them from ever truly being out of a game.

The reality is we have no idea what this Red Sox team is right now, just eight games into the season. There has been one player in particular who has stood out when things have been going well for Boston this year, and it appears he’s yet again carved out a crucial role on the roster.

This isn’t the first time we’ve seen Brock Holt go on a hot streak like this, but it doesn’t make it any less exciting. Through his first 26 plate appearances of the season, the super utility player and 2015 All Star is hitting .333/.462/.714 with a .433 TAv. As of this writing, that makes him the 13th best hitter in baseball, though that should be taken with the largest grain of salt imaginable, considering it’s a group that’s led by Jeremy Hazelbaker and Tyler White. Still, he’s been really good at the plate, and that’s really the big point here.

Holt is a streaky player, and his hot streaks typically come early in the season.

Of course, as I said, we’ve seen this before. Holt is a streaky player, and his hot streaks typically come early in the season. Over the last two years, when he’s been playing on something close to an everyday basis, Holt has four months with an OPS of at least .800, and four months with an OPS no higher than .650. So, at some point he’s probably going to hit a slump. That’s what happens with streaky hitters, and it’s how Holt consistently ends seasons with league-average offensive production despite looking like a man possessed for weeks at a time.

That’s not to say the Red Sox and fans should be discouraged; it was just me getting the negative out of the way early. The fact is Holt’s numbers are good in the early going, and he looks good doing it (despite cutting his hair). He’s locked in at the plate, and he’s hitting everything hard in the early part of the season. Obviously, these numbers aren’t stabilized yet, but 60 percent of Holt’s batted balls have been line drives this year, the highest rate in baseball. On top of that, the remainder of his balls in play have been ground balls, which is a good recipe for racking up hits even if it might limit power in the long run. Clearly he won’t stay this efficient — no one could possibly keep up those rates — but it’s a good start. For what it’s worth, the early Statcast data agrees that he’s in a zone. Per Brooks Baseball, Holt’s hitting fastballs as hard as he did at any point last year, and he’s hitting breaking balls much harder than he ever has.

To finish off this point, Holt is also spraying the ball all over the diamond in an impressive manner.

Again, none of this is something anyone should be counting on all year, but they are real results and a little look into what makes a Holt Hot Streak.

Watching the Red Sox regularly, however, you know that offensive value is far from the only thing that Holt brings to the table. Once he does get on base, he’s done a fantastic job of providing value with his legs on the base paths, something he’s been able to do throughout his career. Although that baserunning prowess doesn’t result in gaudy stolen base numbers, he’s been one of the most valuable base runners per BP’s BRR metric in each of the last two seasons. It’s happening again in 2016, both by the numbers and anecdotally.

Then, of course, there’s the defense. This is the most valuable piece of Holt’s game, and it’s carrying over again in 2016. That’s not to say he’s an elite defensive player, because he’s not. However, he’s passable literally everywhere. So far this season, he’s logged most of his time in left field, and he’s done a really good job there. Obviously, it’s not the most difficult position on the diamond, but I have vague memories of a former middle infielder making a mockery of things out there in the recent past.

More importantly, Holt’s always able to shift around the diamond. That’s meant moving to third base this season. While this is likely his worst position on the field, he’s not a trainwreck, and the move allows John Farrell to utilize the bench in the most efficient way possible. Right now, it’s meant using Chris Young as a pinch hitter for Travis Shaw when a left-handed pitcher enters the game. Later in a game, Holt will usually shift back to left field as Pablo Sandoval comes off the bench when a righty is brought in to face Young. There is clear value in allowing the best situational hitters come into the game without worrying about defensive alignment in the next inning.

At least in the early part of the season, the more valuable part of this may be that it’s making a tough job for Farrell a little easier. However you feel about him as a manager, there’s no doubt he’s in a tough spot this year. He’s dealing with a potentially flawed team with huge expectations. On top of that, he has to juggle a strange bench with two big-money players occupying it. He has to keep players happy and put the team in the best position to win every night, as he’s managing for his job right now. None of that would be possible without Holt’s versatility.

At some point, Holt is going to stop hitting and he’ll disappear for a while. He’ll still be in games, granted, but he won’t be the player who stands out every night. And that’s fine. This is how things work with him, and the Red Sox will ride him as long as he’s crushing the ball like this. Nonetheless, Holt’s baserunning value is always going to be there, as is his versatility. Farrell has a tough task this year, and he’s going to need a lot of help along the way. Luckily, having Holt on his side will make things much easier.

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Let’s start off with a quick primer on how to be a fan favorite in baseball. First, you have to be notable. Try playing multiple positions – about seven should work. Then field those positions and hit well enough from each of them that you earn yourself a perpetual starting job so you’re always in the lineup and seen by everyone, everyday. Lastly, try cultivating a righteous flow so it flares out from under your helmet. That’s like icing on the endearment cake.

Enter Brock Holt.

The man with the best Twitter handle on the team got himself the title of All-Star this year and it was well-deserved, as Holt tore it up in the first three months of the season. The last three months? Well, let’s just say history loves repeating itself, because nobody learns anything ever.

What went right in 2015?

Almost everything before July 14th went spectacularly for Holt. Injuries, ineffectiveness and a willingness by John Farrell to trot him out everyday earned Holt a starting spot, and that spot could be at any given position on any given day. In response, Holt exploded for the best three months he’s ever had, with a .292/.379/.412 slash during those 90 days that got him a ticket to Cincy for the All-Star Game.

The offensive progression looked legitimate. Holt was hitting for more power than he ever had before, he was hitting a line drive a ridiculous 27% of the time and he was walking nearly double his career rate. Combine that with his consistency no matter where he was positioned, and you’ve got a breakout player. Second base? Kept on hitting. Left field? Yup, proceeded to rake. Third base? Still did the damn thing.

Holt’s performance during April, May, and June seemed to cement his status as the next super-utility guy, as fans dreamed that he would walk in the fabled footsteps of Ben Zobrist. His value can’t be explained through WAR or any single metric, but having a backup to virtually every position on the field is a lot more valuable to teams and managers than most think, and Holt gave Farrell a Swiss Army knife to deploy in any way, shape, or form possible.

Holt went from a reliever swap throw-in to jack-of-all-trades to All-Star in less than three years. You know everything broke right when all your titles have hyphens in them.

What went wrong in 2015?

It’s almost a cop-out to say this, but what went wrong for Holt is mostly a matter of perspective. Do you blame the player, who looked nothing like the All-Star version of himself in the second half? Or do you blame the manager(s), who, for a second straight season, rode Holt to such a degree that a Kentucky Derby jockey would grimace in pain?

Regardless of who or what you point the finger at, Holt still regressed so greatly that Josh Rutledge – Josh Rutledge – took over for him at the keystone. Any trace of that improved plate discipline vanished, and the newfound power along with it. Grounders became commonplace, as Holt would churn one out a staggering 60% of the time, and his line drives dropped dramatically as a result.

At this point, you couldn’t play him in the outfield every day, because the Betts-Bradley-Castillo OF combo (with the occasional Hanley Ramirez cameo) deservedly dominated the playing time. Holt’s .265/.311/.341 second-half slash was only slightly better than Pablo Sandoval’s, Xander Bogaerts was locked in at short and Travis Shaw slotted himself into the first base job by hitting roughly five billion home runs in Fenway.

To add injury to insult, Holt seemingly dealt with a new malady every week, be it a hyperextended knee, a left oblique strain, or recurring back spasms. It was a literal breakdown, both physically and statistically, and it stood in stark contrast to what Holt had done the three months prior.

Outlook for 2016

For the second year in a row, Holt reached new career highs in games played and plate appearances. For the second year in a row, Holt stumbled down the stretch. As long as he’s not an everyday guy, Holt will probably progress once again, possibly near that All-Star level of his. His role as the 10th man is set in stone, but rolling him out there everyday early on could very well lead to another burnout later in the season. His usage needs to be limited, and while three or four starts a week is fine, he cannot have a starting job.

It’s tough to say that Holt needs to play fewer games, but less is more here, and having a positional band-aid in the second half of the season is something that could turn out to be invaluable. In the end, however much he plays will ultimately be determined by John Farrell, and he’ll be the one that’ll choose to either risk another crash-and-burn in August, or save Holt for when it really matters.

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Fast-forward to today, and he’s one of the most beloved members of the roster and is coming off his first career All-Star Game appearance. After his 2014 campaign appeared to be a flash in the pan, he came back with a vengeance this season and proved he can truly play in this league. While he’s clearly built himself up to being a valuable player, his minor-league track record suggests he could fall back to Earth at some point. Because of this, there are some who believe he could be best utilized as a trade chip this winter, when the team must make some crucial moves to rebuild almost their entire pitching staff among other holes. Would that really be a smart move, though?

Over the last two seasons, Holt has been a league-average hitter, slashing .281/.341/.383 with TAv’s of .261 and .268, respectively. However, while that’s been the end result, it doesn’t really describe him as a player. He’s extremely streaky at the plate, at times looking like a legitimate top-of-the-order hitter who can survive in even the best lineups. At other times, he looks like he belongs in Triple-A. So, while it all comes out to a league-average result, he’s usually anything but.

While he’s obviously not a .400-BABIP player, Holt appears to be the kind of hitter who can be on the high-end of the BABIP spectrum on a relatively consistent basis.

When someone like Holt has this kind of streaky profile, luck is always thrown out there as the reason. During the times he is at his best, his BABIP is through the roof, and then it inevitable comes crashing down when he starts to struggle. I’m not at all convinced that’s just luck, though. While he’s obviously not a .400-BABIP player, he appears to be the kind of hitter who can be on the high-end of the BABIP spectrum on a relatively consistent basis.

There are two controllable things that lead to above-average BABIPs: line drives and speed. Although batted ball data is far from exact, both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs agree that Holt is well above-average in this department, and the eye test backs that notion up. He is also tremendous on the base paths, even if he doesn’t steal a lot of bases. Baseball Prospectus’ base running stat — BRR — has ranked him as a well above average base runner in each of the last two years. The same can be said for Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. In fact, Baseball-Reference has Holt as a top-10 baserunner over the last two years, and FanGraphs has him in the top-25. All of this is to say that Holt’s high BABIPs can not be looked at as purely luck-based. He has the skill set to maintain a BABIP well above the norm for most players.

However, that doesn’t mean the Red Sox shouldn’t look to trade him. Even if his performance isn’t just built on luck, that doesn’t mean he needs to be kept. The unfortunate thing is that Holt has an atypical kind of value. He contributes in so many different ways — more than anyone I can ever remember — that it’s hard to pinpoint just how much he should be worth. He can play literally anywhere on the diamond that’s not part of the battery. He may not be great at every position, but having someone who can be plugged in and not worried about wherever he is needed is insanely valuable. The issue is that there aren’t great comparisons to draw here, so teams could have wildly differing views of his worth.

On top of this, Holt is especially valuable for the Red Sox, who have a mix of old and young talent and need daily replacements in their lineup. Guys like Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia and Pablo Sandoval will need their days off going forward to mitigate wear-and-tear. The Jackie Bradleys and Rusney Castillos of the world will need days off when things are going poorly at the plate and they need to recollect themselves. Only needing to take up one bench spot with their replacement is an invaluable tool, and one Bryan Grosnick attempted to quantify earlier this season

Ideally, the Red Sox would be able to replace that kind of versatility in the minors, and they’ve certainly tried. They’ve been playing Sean Coyle all over the field in the upper-minors, but there’s no reason to believe he can do this as well as Holt. The same can be said of Deven Marrero. Not only does it take a special kind of athleticism, it takes a special kind of motor. It’s not easy to learn all of these positions on the fly — especially at Fenway Park where every outfield position has unique challenges. It’s an intangible that is impossible to judge from the outside, but it’s something those in the organization need to judge.

So, with all that being said — the fact that Holt has been a good hitter overall who can realistically be placed atop the lineup, the fact that his high BABIP is, in fact, somewhat sustainable, and the fact that he carries a unique value that is hard to judge from the outside — I don’t think the Red Sox should actively look to move him this winter. Of course, if someone comes along and is willing to give up a top-flight starting pitcher for him, you absolutely make that move. But realistically, that’s not happening. Instead, the Red Sox should build their lineup with Holt as the tenth man, slated for 110-125 games. He’s never going to be the focal point of a team, and his All-Star berth was likely just a one-time thing, but he possesses crazy value, especially for a team like the Red Sox.

Plus, there are no stats that tell us how important that head of hair is for everyone else in the locker room.

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