So, because we have an innate desire to be right, especially about baseball, we’ve put together our predictions on how the season will go. Some will be right on the money, while others will look wildly outlandish by the time November rolls back around. But that’s okay! That’s what makes this fun, and when it’s all said and done, we’ll all have those moments where we won’t get something, just like Mookie Betts:

Double hit over Mookie Betts’ head while he is being interviewed by ESPN — “I ain’t getting this one, boys” — ESPN booth cracks up. pic.twitter.com/SXLhuaUfP9

— Cork Gaines (@CorkGaines) March 27, 2018

 It’ll never get old. So before we all do, here’s BP Boston’s predictions.

American League

National League

Postseason

Major Awards

Photo by Steve Mitchell — USA TODAY Sports

But this isn’t a simple case of passing the buck. The 2018-19 off-season promises perhaps the biggest free agent class ever. It’s such a promising offseason that I can remember hearing about it three or four years ago, which, when you think about it, is ridiculous. Still, there’s a reason for the extreme foresight. In case you’re unaware of the specifics of this class, here is a list of players who will hit the open market after this upcoming season.

• Josh Donaldson
• Charlie Blackmon
• Drew Pomeranz
• Elvis Andrus
• Brian Dozier
• Andrew Miller
• Craig Kimbrel
• A.J. Pollock
• Daniel Murphy
• Marwin Gonzalez
• Gio Gonzalez
• Andrew McCutchen
• Nelson Cruz
• Zach Britton
• Cody Allen
• Adam Jones

Pretty nuts, right? And here’s the part about it that is crazy, bizarro, extreme, Vince-McMahon-rebooting-the-XFL-level nuts: that’s not really the list. Sure, all those guys are going to be free agents after the 2018 season, but I didn’t include three guys of particular note. I’m talking about Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Clayton Kershaw. Those three guys are the reason people have been talking about this free agent class for half a decade.

Those are some huge names, some huge players. The thing is, in the case of the first two, both will be 26 years old in 2019 — the first year of their new contracts. Not since Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers as a 25-year-old-to be in 2001 have we seen a player with this level of talent enter the market at such a young age. This free agent class has two of those guys. Oh, and also the best pitcher since Pedro Martinez in Kershaw. It’s truly a stacked class, and teams have been planning for it since fans became aware of it, or maybe even before that.

We’re 400 words into this thing and I haven’t yet brought up the Boston Red Sox which is odd since this is a Boston Red Sox website. Like every other team, the Red Sox are aware of this class of players. Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening. The total salary expenditure that teams must be below is $197 million. After that, penalties aplenty are levied, which increase each season teams that are over. The Red Sox kept below the luxury tax threshold last season, meaning if they go over this season the penalties aren’t too steep.

Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening.

With arbitration raises though last season’s payroll has gone up even though the roster is basically the same, putting the Red Sox over the threshold in 2018. Signing Bryce Harper or Clayton Kershaw would certainly put the Sox over again in 2019 and, considering they’d likely have to put a huge AAV towards doing so, it would contribute to putting them over again in 2020 as well. Should the Red Sox go far over they could lose their first round draft pick in addition to paying a ton of extra money as a tax for spending so much (seriously, players union, WTF?).

The effect of this on the Red Sox is to incentivize them to spend below the tax threshold. The Red Sox already have $92 million locked up in player salaries for the 2019 season, and that’s for just four guys in David Price, Dustin Pedroia, Rick Porcello, and Mitch Moreland. (They’re paying $18.45 million to a fifth in Pablo Sandoval but he’s no longer on the team.) Things get tighter if the Red Sox do shell out another $100+ million deal for J.D. Martinez or another free agent this offseason. That would likely put the Sox over the tax threshold for a second consecutive season, even without signing Harper or another big name from next off-season’s free agent class.

Now, the Red Sox could say, “Screw it, we’re going to put the best team on the field regardless of the luxury tax limit.” But that seems unlikely. The team has spent liberally over the years since John Henry bought them back in 2002, and there’s little reason to expect that not to continue, but asking the team to pay millions for the privilege of paying millions years into the future seems unlikely.

The problem as it stands now is that the team doesn’t have minor league talent that can step in for veterans on expiring contracts, meaning if everything else stays as is, free agents will have to replace free agents. For example, Rick Porcello’s deal is up after the 2019 season which sounds great. Hooray! The Red Sox will have $21 million to use. Except what do you think the going rate for a decent starting pitcher will be in two seasons? I’m guessing it’s going to be a lot, maybe something around $21 million a year. And the Red Sox will also have to replace (or re-sign) Chris Sale and they’ll have already replaced (or re-signed) Drew Pomeranz the season before, likely requiring more money. Boston’s dollars aren’t endless is the point, and guys on cheap deals can’t all be replaced at the top of the market.

One way out for the Red Sox is if David Price opts out of his contract after the 2018 season. If he does, the Red Sox are off the hook for the remaining four years, $127 million. That money could be spent directly on a Kershaw or, probably more likely, Sale.

While the Red Sox could make a run at Kershaw, and damn the luxury tax, the other two generational talents are less likely to sign in Boston. Both Harper and Machado play positions the Red Sox already have covered for the significant future. Machado plays third base where the Red Sox are hoping Rafael Devers will be for the next six seasons. Sure Boston could move him to first or deal him and try to add Machado, but doing that is a significant step towards the luxury tax threshold. Harper seems the more realistic of the two at least in terms of fit, as one of Jackie Bradley or Andrew Benintendi could be moved to make room. And that would be fine. Harper is that good. But the thing is the Red Sox don’t have to do that. They don’t have a hole at third or a hole in the outfield corners, which means they’d be both replacing a good player and doing so by adding one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. Considering their place against the cap (we’re just going to call it what it is, a soft salary cap), doing that seems unlikely.

You never rule it out though. This is the Red Sox. This is Dave Dombrowski. These are great, great players. You never rule it out. But right now, where the Red Sox are, with David Price’s deal on the books until it isn’t, and $18.5 million due to Pablo Sandoval this coming season and the one after it, the arbitration raises coming due, and the lot, it doesn’t seem like the right time for the Red Sox to make a huge addition. All of which means they may just sit out the greatest free agent market of all time.

Or, you know, not.

One thing that makes the Red Sox media unique is the collective focus on specific players, as in specific players who don’t play for the Red Sox. You may recall the obsession, years before he ever became a Red Sox, of Adrian Gonzalez. It was like the Globe, the Herald, Over The Monster, fans all over New England, and everybody in Red Sox nation pretty much went, “We HAVE to get that guy.” For a while that same kinda it’ll-happen-eventually focus was directed at Giancarlo Stanton as well. It made sense because Stanton fit a similar mold. Both players were/are fantastic. But both were, at the time, under-paid, young superstars on garbage teams going nowhere, and both filled big holes on the Red Sox. The obsession with Stanton ended about three years ago though. In fact, I can pinpoint the day. It was November 19, 2014, the day the Marlins gave Stanton a 13 year, $325 million contract and that pretty much stopped the articles and the drooling on talk radio. Stanton was staying in Miami. Drat.

At the same time in Boston, the Red Sox assembled one of the best young outfields in baseball. Jackie Bradley and Mookie Betts have been joined by Andrew Benintendi and, [counts] one-two-three, that’s a full outfield. So, sadly, that closes the door to acquiring Stanton and his beautiful, prodigious home run swing on both sides.

But [grabs crowbar] how about we jerk that sucker back open again, eh? Yes, this is one of THOSE columns, the kind you thought you were done with, the kind that basically says over and over and over in 20 different ways why and how the Red Sox should/could trade for Giancarlo Stanton. Again, I’m sorry, but you know I gotta beat Brisbee on this, so no time like the present!

A couple of things have happened that have shoved this old door back open again. The first is that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has decided he’s sufficiently ruined baseball in south Florida and it’s time to move on to ruining other stuff. Lollipops, perhaps, or love seats. Maybe goats. Who knows what is next project will be or how he will ruin it, but that’s outside the purview of this column. What inside the purview of this column is that Loria, the guy who signed off on Stanton’s massive contract and who has a violent hatred of lollipops and medium sized living room furniture, is headed out the door, and getting the huge financial commitment to Stanton off the Marlins’ books might help facilitate a sale.

Stanton is only in year three of his deal but the Marlins are, again, terrible. Since Stanton signed the deal amidst much fanfare and promises from the top brass (read: Loria) that the Marlins would do their damnedest to be competitive, the team has gone 203-233, and there’s no particular reason to think things will get much better any time soon. So the Marlins would probably like to deal Stanton and Stanton might not mind being traded away, depending on where he was headed.

Stanton hit his 39th homer Thursday night, a number which leads the league. Stanton, by himself, has 35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team.

At first glance though, you might not think the Red Sox would be a team that would need Stanton. Boston’s outfield is full, you remember, with very good young players. Let’s get back to the outfield though. First, this: David Ortiz retired after the 2016 season. That 2016 team hit 208 homers, good for ninth in baseball. This season the Red Sox have had a much harder time hitting the ball over the wall. As of this writing they have 116 long balls, good for 27th in baseball. They need someone to hit some damn dingers. Stanton hit his 39th homer Thursday night, a number which leads the league. Stanton, by himself, has 35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team. I’m going to write that sentence again. Stanton, by himself, has 35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team.

Stanton isn’t just a home run hitter though. He walks, he hits doubles and singles, and he gets on base (.369 this season). He’s the middle of the order guy the Red Sox had for 14 years in Boston, but don’t have anymore. Bluntly, he’s what this lineup lacks.

Of course, every team wants Stanton, but that’s the thing because now that he’s not making the league minimum anymore, not every team can take him. Now teams must find a way to deal with his salary and that’s not something most teams can handle doing. But the Red Sox can.

Here’s the secret though. Right now Stanton’s deal is an albatross, a massive hit that most teams just can’t afford. But really, secretly, it isn’t! In two years, players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will reach the free agent market and what they get will dwarf the $32 million Stanton will earn in the most expensive seasons of his deal. Last off-season free agents made about $8 million a win. In a year it’ll be more. It keeps going up, and when Harper and the rest reach free agency, we’ll likely be talking about even more. At this rate Stanton will reach about six wins in 2017. At $32 million, that’s $5.3 million a win. Of course Stanton isn’t making $32 million this year and he won’t make that next year either. He won’t make that much until 2023 when wins will probably we worth about $32 million a piece on the market.

Stanton might not reach six wins each season (this would be the third time in six full seasons he’s done it) and he’s had some injury issues so the team would have to believe he could stay healthy. But Stanton will be just 28 next season. The potential for a middle-of-the-order bat for the next decade and at prices below those on the free agent market is there. Or, if Harper and Machado truly break the bank in two off-seasons, perhaps Stanton opts out of his deal and the Red Sox get him for just the three years and $77 million between now and then. That is not bad and you have to think that, given the structure of the deal (small money before the opt-out, huge money after), that’s exactly what Loria was banking on happening.

Where would Stanton fit on the Red Sox and how much would it take to get him? Easy question and hard question. Easy question: anywhere he wants! Stanton is 27 and he’s an outfielder so he’d fit in the outfield, either left or right field depending (hopefully left). But there’s no room in the Red Sox outfield, right? Well (harder question) trading for Stanton will cost something so it would make sense for Boston to deal one of their starting outfielders for him. Clearly it wouldn’t be Mookie Betts, but depending on the financial situation (i.e. how much money Miami pays of Stanton’s deal, if any) it might make sense to deal either Benintendi (I know, I know) or, more likely, Jackie Bradley with Benintendi going to right field and Betts moving to center. The Red Sox don’t seem to be all in on Bradley despite his amazing defense and occasional MVP impressions at the plate so perhaps that’s a good starting point.

It would be a complicated deal, what with all Stanton’s money, Stanton’s no-trade clause, and the uncertainty of his opt-out following the 2020 season. It’s all very complex and honestly I have no idea how to sort it all out. I just know that the Marlins would love to be rid of Stanton’s money, Stanton would probably love to be on a winning team, and the Red Sox would love to have someone step into the middle of their lineup and fill the David Ortiz-sized hole there. That’s a lot of incentive to make something happen. I’ll let the professionals work it out from there. First though, let me turn on this old rusty Stanton Signal (Chad Finn will be busting through that door any second now) and email Grant Brisbee that he’s gonna have to come up with another topic for Monday.

Photo by Jerome Miron – USA TODAY Sports

Division Winners

Postseason

#hardware

• Four teams are unanimous picks for their division, with just the two-man carousel in the NL East and the AL West party getting different results.
• Of the Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Rangers, one’s gotta go. With our staff, it’s usually the Mariners. Sorry, Seattle.
• Devereaux says the AL MVP award should be named after Trout from now on, and I can’t disagree.
• He also said the NL Cy Young should just be named after Kershaw as well. See above reaction.
• Slavin’s Margot pick for NL ROY is, as he tells it, “the first dose of retribution for Trader Dave”. That one made me laugh.