There are, as you might expect, many different ideas as to how the Red Sox might fill their DH spot. The most prominent of these has been to sign Edwin Encarnacion. Ortiz himself even endorsed this idea. Encarnacion is a fantastic hitter, but the combination of his age and contractual demands (money plus years) have made him a seemingly unlikely option. Similarly the Red Sox seem to have no interest (thank Jehovah) in paying dollars, years, and a first round draft pick for the right to put Jose Bautista in their lineup. There are other candidates as well, but all have one thing in common: they cost too much in some way. The Red Sox are reportedly interested in Carlos Beltran, another aged star, but so are the Yankees, Rangers, and a host of other teams, so much so that it seems likely Beltran could finagle a multi-year deal, effectively doubling the cost of writing his name on the lineup card. Were he a few years younger that’d might even be fine, but Beltran is baseball’s equivalent of Santa Claus: he’s jolly and he’ll bring presents, but he’s ridiculously old. 

So here’s the new idea, the one from two paragraphs ago. On Monday the Milwaukee Brewers non-tendered Chris Carter, meaning they have 10 days to trade him or he’s a free agent. If he reaches free agency, the Red Sox should sign him. That’s it. That’s the idea. It gets more interesting when you get into why though, so here’s why. Carter will be 30 next season and was set to earn $8.1 million in 2017, but now he won’t. Cutting him came as somewhat of a surprise, as Carter hit 41 homers in 2016. That’s tied for sixth in all of baseball with Nolan Arenado. Ahead of them are Mark Trumbo, Nelson Cruz, Encarnacion, Brian Dozier, and Khris (not Chris) Davis. That’s it. Behind him is every other player in baseball.

Beltran is baseball’s equivalent of Santa Claus: he’s jolly and he’ll bring presents, but he’s ridiculously old.

You wouldn’t think that guy would be cut loose, but Carter has his warts. There are a few reasons the Brewers decided he’s not worth their $8 million. One is they just signed Eric Thames, but if they thought Carter had value they wouldn’t DFA him, they’d trade him. So start by looking up Carter at Baseball Prospectus and you’ll see last season he was worth 0.8 WARP. That’s less than a single win above replacement. He got 644 plate appearances, hit 41 homers, and somehow would up worth less than a win. That must mean he’s pretty bad at everything else. And… sort of. 

Carter is pretty bad defensively. The Brewers played him mostly at first base, but being in the National League they didn’t have the luxury of putting him at DH. Our defensive stat, FRAA, hated Carter’s defense last season, rating him at -12.1. This lines up pretty well with other advanced defensive metrics, like those at FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. And it’s not like this was a one season thing either. His defense is bad. So that’s one thing. 

Carter struck out 206 times last season, a number which led all of baseball. In fact, in all his seven seasons in the big leagues, Carter has three numbers in black ink on his baseball reference page (i.e. thrice he’s led baseball in something). Last season he played 160 games, the most in baseball (that’s good!), and twice he’s led baseball in strikeouts including last season. This isn’t a new thing either. Carter’s strikeout percentage has been in the 30s every year since he became a regular player except for once, when it was in the 40s. So Carter strikes out a lot. This also serves to hold down his batting average. We are in 2016 so this maybe doesn’t look as damning as it might were this 1986 or 1976, but even so a .220 batting average isn’t exactly a thing of beauty and most teams may not want to sign a guy who isn’t likely to hit more than .230 and may even hit around .200.

He’s a bad base runner. Our Baserunning Runs (BRR) thinks he’s a lousy baserunner, and so do other metrics. Last year wasn’t an outlier either. He’s been a negative baserunner in every season in his career by BRR. Once a player has been a bad baserunner that often, he’s very unlikely to improve vastly once he reaches age-30, which Carter has. Therefore he is a bad baserunner.

So, let’s pause and recap. Chris Carter has power, but is now entering his 30s, strikes out way too much, has a horrible batting average, is awful on defense, and can’t run the bases. Well I can hear you saying, “You’re right, Matt. I don’t know what the Red Sox are waiting for. Sign this guy right now.” And yes, Mrs. and Mr. Sarcasm, there are some warts here. But if there weren’t the Brewers would’ve paid him his arbitration money and you wouldn’t be reading this article because I wouldn’t have written it. Now that I’ve listed his warts, let me tell you why they shouldn’t matter to the Red Sox.

The Red Sox are looking for a DH and DHs don’t play defense, so you can throw out Carter’s defensive numbers because he won’t be needing them. In effect, Carter’s bad defense makes him ideal as a DH because those numbers only serve to hold down his value and thus his market. It’s good Carter isn’t a good defensive player!

Carter does strike out a ton and his batting average isn’t going to win any beauty contests. Neither is ideal, but what matters isn’t the strikeouts alone or even the Ks and the low average. What matters is the entirety of his offensive output. Last year Carter’s offensive output was good. He was the fourth-most valuable hitter on the Brewers by VORP. His offense last season was roughly equivalent to Dustin Pedroia or Sandy Leon. He was a good, not great, hitter. What’s more, on the Red Sox, a team with lots of runners on base, home runs (worth multiple runs) and strikeouts (i.e. not double plays) would play just fine. 

I fear I’m belaboring the point here, so let’s cut to it. Carter’s bat has value, and with their DH position wide open, the Red Sox are in a unique position to extract it. But what Carter also brings to the proverbial table is flexibility. The Red Sox don’t want to commit $100 million and five years to Encarnacion, they don’t want to sacrifice a draft pick to sign him or Bautista, and they don’t want to give a 40-year-old Beltran a multi-year contract. They have some money to spend but they want to reserve most of it for their young stars, and maybe for a splash on the 2018 free agent market. The Red Sox want a good hitter at DH, but most of all what the Red Sox want from their DH in 2017 is value. Carter offers value. He won’t cost much money, likely not more than the Brewers would have paid him in arbitration or they would have traded him. He won’t command a multi-year deal like the bigger names on the free agent market. He won’t cost them a draft pick, and acquiring him won’t require them to deal anything substantial from their dwindling reserves of minor league talent. 

Chris Carter’s 41 home runs look impressive, but look closer and he starts to look like an empty suit. And maybe for most teams he is exactly that. But the Red Sox have different needs than most teams, and for them Chris Carter’s skills play up and his deficiencies fade to the back. He’s a chance to avoid the free agent market, a chance to keep their draft pick, a chance to keep their prospects or at least use them elsewhere, a chance to do all those things and still get some decent production from the DH spot in the lineup. He can help them win in 2017 without sacrificing value in later seasons. Carter isn’t the best player available, but considering the whole picture, for the Red Sox he might be the best fit.

Photo by Tim Heltman/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

Before looking ahead to the 2017 team and beyond, it is worth looking back at the career of ex-Red Sox star Manny Ramirez, who is now eligible for the Hall of Fame. By the numbers, Manny, a player many have considered one of the best right-handed hitters to ever play the game, looks like a Hall of Famer: 555 home runs, .312/.411/.585 slashline, critical part of two World Series winners, 76.3 WARP, this play, and on and on. Manny was so great:

By Jay Jaffe’s JAWS, Manny was slightly better than the average Hall of Fame left fielder, meaning he would raise the quality of enshrined left fielders. Ian Browne of MLB.com has a great retrospective of Manny’s career. So elect him, right? Not likely. As Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald details, Manny’s multiple suspensions for violating MLB’s PED policy makes it a longshot that he gets the Hall call. Along these lines, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe considers Manny’s place among Red Sox greats who have not been enshrined, ultimately ranking him third behind Roger Clemens and Curt “how can I tarnish my image further today” Schilling. Regardless of his election, it will be interesting to see how long Manny remains eligible on the ballot. Will he lurk around for a few years like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have? Will he get bounced immediately? Manny certainly represents an interesting case for the voters. If he does get in, I am sure that his speech will be incredible.

The Red Sox have sorely lacked production from third base in recent years. Pablo Sandoval’s first season in red socks went terribly, and last year, outside of two good months from Travis Shaw, the group of players who occupied the hot corner posted a .238 TAv. As such, what to expect from the position in 2017 is remarkably unclear. Regardless, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that Sandoval should get the opportunity to be the primary third baseman in 2017. I agree with Abraham for two reasons. First, it is unlikely that Sandoval will be as bad as he was in 2015, and second, the other options will be better used in bench/utility roles (Shaw, Brock Holt) or need more development time (Yoan Moncada). The 3-to-5-win Sandoval of San Francisco Giants fame is likely not going to be seen in Boston but that doesn’t mean there should be a rush to trade him for pennies on the dollar. And, no, the Giants don’t want him back. Sandoval slots nicely into the bottom third of the already potent Red Sox lineup, and hopefully his focus on conditioning over the last year helps his agility on defense. It is reasonable to expect him to be a 1-2 win contributor in 2017, which is great for the 2017 club and also allows Moncada more time to learn the position at the minor league level so that he can be ready to assert himself as the primary candidate in 2018.

Quick Hits

For a number of Red Sox players, the 2016 postseason, was their first taste of playoff baseball at the major league level. Unfortunately, after getting swept in the Division Series, it was over before they could get acclimated. Despite the poor result, Scott Lauber of ESPN.com outlines how getting a taste of playoff experience this past season could prove valuable in the future for the young core of the team.

While that young core is in place for the 2017 season, there are still areas of the team that can be enhanced. Carlos Beltran, an excellent offensive-threat from both sides of the plate, has been mentioned as a Red Sox target. Beltran would be a nice addition to an already strong offense. However, as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes, the Sox are not alone in being interested in adding Beltran. The Yankees, Astros, Rangers and (maybe) the Blue Jays are all vying for the aging slugger.

Adding to the offense is one approach for this offseason, however Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald thinks the Red Sox should focus on getting someone from the starting pitching market. The Red Sox’s league-leading offense is still likely to be a top-five group, but the pitching is murkier. Mastrodonato suggests that adding Chris Sale or Justin Verlander is feasible and would make things much more comfortable.

Two members of the current starting rotation have different views on pitching for their country in the World Baseball Classic (WBC). American League Cy-Young winner Rick Porcello wants to repeat his 2016 Spring preparations in 2017 and will therefore skip pitching for the American squad. However, Porcello’s rotation-mate Eduardo Rodriguez has made it known that he would like to pitch for Venezuela. While it is an honour to compete for one’s country, John Tomase of WEEI.com writes that, given the knee injury that affected his mechanics and contributed to a mostly mediocre season, Rodriguez should skip the WBC.

Even after all of the big league promotions that have happened over the last couple of years, the Red Sox’s farm system remains one of the best in the game. There are many players at the lower levels who could contribute in the big leagues in 2017. Christopher Smith of MassLive.com has notes on six players who could make their big league debut this season.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

We finally got through a full calendar year of Dave Dombrowski running the Red Sox. By most accounts, it’s been a successful arrival for him. The Sox made the playoffs, the outfield is amazing, and there’s a lot to look forward to. That being said, I don’t think this offseason is going to be as exciting and surprising as the last couple have been. The Red Sox have very few holes, and they’re obvious: a flexible bat to help make up for the loss of David Ortiz’s production, and a solid reliever or two. It’s not going to be an exciting winter, because the Red Sox are not going to sign a top-tier starter or two third basemen. Instead, they should really look into what they already have, invest in the youth on the team and bet on a few guys coming back from lackluster years.

How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz’s production?

The most obvious and most expensive solution here is Edwin Encarnacion. He can still crank out homers like it’s going out of style and play first base adequately, so Hanley Ramirez can take a breather. Problem solved, right? Not really. Encarnacion will be 34 by the time Opening Day rolls around, and he reportedly wants something in the neighborhood of a five-year, $125 million contract. Another big contract would kill whatever payroll flexibility the Sox have, and that can’t seem attractive to a team that doesn’t need offense that badly.

The two guys that should garner interest from the Red Sox are Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday. Neither of them should see the field that much, and if they do, it’ll be masked by Fenway’s left field. Beltran is obviously the safer of the two, and he’s a switch-hitter so you don’t have to stack up on right-handed batters every game. Holliday would be cheaper, but he’s riskier, seeing as he’s only played 183 games over the last two years, and saw his plate discipline erode last year. Still, it’s worth seeing if he’s got anything left in the tank. I do think the Sox get Beltran on a two-year deal, and they’ll explore the trade market, but not make a big move.

This is probably hopeful thinking, but seeing as the Red Sox were far and away the best offense in the American League in 2016, I think they’ve afforded a sizable margin of error to let their young guys and potential rebounds try and make up the rest of the production. A full year of Andrew Benintendi should be fun, and getting anything out of third base is already a lot more than what we had last year – because last year was two months of Travis Shaw going bonkers and four months of nothing. Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr were really underwhelming in the second half, and they’re both such good hitters that I can’t imagine that continuing.

How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?

This is where the big bucks will be spent, because I expect them to get either Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon. Thanks to the departures of Koji Uehara, Brad Ziegler, and Junichi Tazawa, there’s an opening or two for late-inning work in the Red Sox bullpen.

Joe Kelly’s Great Stuff finally got him great results as a reliever, so he’s probably a lock for that. Craig Kimbrel is entrenched as the primary closer. Carson Smith probably won’t return until after the All-Star break at the earliest, but at least we’ll have his tweets. There’s very little in terms of internal options here, so there has to be a move for a major bullpen piece in free agency. Maybe they’ll bring Ziegler back, but with all the “he’s really open to coming back to AZ” articles that came out after the trade, I’m not too sure about it.

Jansen is obviously the preferred option of the two I mentioned, but with Aroldis Chapman teasing a $100 million contract, you know Jansen will be almost as expensive as Chapman once the market is set. He’d be the most consistent option, but would also require a lot more money than Melancon, who has been quietly very good since 2013. He’s not going to be spectacular like Jansen, but instead merely great, and probably $10 million cheaper if we’re going for a three- or four-year deal. But we all know Dombrowski, and he’s doesn’t shy away from going big with a major deal. Jansen is my guess on who will be in a Red Sox uniform come January.

That leaves some concern over left-handed pitchers in the bullpen. Robbie Ross is fine, but I really don’t expect him to have a 0.33 HR/9 again, and if you’re worried about not having a guy who could be death to lefties, I’d like you to know that Robby Scott was superb in that role, albeit in a very small sample size. Plus, his windup will make you feel like Andrew Miller is back on the Red Sox, without, y’know, the whole getting-right-handed-batters-out thing. And the best-reliever-in-the-game arguments. Look, I really kind of miss Andrew Miller.

If the Red Sox do more than just Jansen/Melancon, the Miami Marlins’ bullpen has some nice pieces you could get for a pretty penny. A.J. Ramos would be a nice addition, Kyle Barraclough is intriguing, and David Phelps looked revitalized in a relief role in 2016.

Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?

This doesn’t seem likely to me. Price-Porcello-Rodriguez-Pomeranz-Wright/Buchholz is a decent rotation with a lot of upside in Rodriguez, a modest rebound candidate in Price, and a solid gamble in Pomeranz. I don’t think Porcello is Cy-Young-Award-contender good – and neither does Craig Goldstein, for good reason – so there’s going to be some regression there. If Steven Wright stays doing what he did last year, that’s a great boon to this unit, and if not, well, you could do a lot worse than Clay Buchholz.

The Red Sox will probably look to add a little depth to stash behind Henry Owens, Roenis Elias, and Brian Johnson, but I don’t see a major addition here.

Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?

I don’t think so, no. The most likely one to be traded is Blake Swihart, and I can’t see him traded right now. The Red Sox need to take a long, hard look at their catcher situation, and see if Sandy Leon can keep hitting, Christian Vazquez can go back to playing stellar defense, and if Blake Swihart can improve his defense. Swihart should start the year in Triple-A to get his feet back under him, so they have time to evaluate everything here.

Yoan Moncada is untouchable. Rafael Devers’ bat is so good that I think he’s kept himself in the Red Sox’s plans for now. I don’t even think they consider swapping Michael Kopech with anyone unless they’re overwhelmed, because he might end up being the first good starting pitcher to come out of the Red Sox’s system in nearly a decade.

Miscellaneous Thoughts

Third base is going to be hell again. Remember that black hole that inhabited the Red Sox’s shortstop position for roughly a decade? It’s back. It just moved one spot to the left. Travis Shaw was little more than a warm body once May had ended, Brock Holt just isn’t a good enough hitter to start there (or anywhere, for that matter), and Pablo Sandoval didn’t even get to hit last year. On top of that, there’s not a readily available platoon option to pair with Shaw. So I see Sandoval getting the job out of Spring Training. The Red Sox really have nothing to lose by going to him, and they didn’t get much of anything out of third base in 2016, so it’s worth a shot.

I like Heath Hembree, but the guy is always the odd man out in the bullpen, so I can’t see him on the 25-man roster with Jansen and Buchholz being in there. Poor guy. Odds are another team will show interest.

It’s not exciting that I see the Red Sox doing what seems to be very little, but I’ve touted the positives of being conservative before, because the next two offseasons are going to be insane in terms of the talent hitting free agency. If they want to have a shot at guys like Yu Darvish, they need to play it relatively safe.

Photo by Kevin Jairaj/USA Today Sports Images

Around these parts, the offseason is almost as exciting as when actual baseball games are being played. We get to play GM, and try to decide what the smart and dumb moves will be. We get to overreact to even the smallest news as we try to escape the boredom that comes with the winter months. This is especially true for Red Sox fans, whose team not only has a near-limitless budget and elite farm system, but also a front office head who is not afraid to use them. And yet, the more I try to wrap my head around the coming offseason, the more I see it being mostly quiet for the Red Sox. I’ll get more into the specifics below, but I see a roster that is mostly set. For as aggressive as Dombrowski likes to be, there are few places to show that off, and he’s not stupid to make moves just for the sake of making moves.

How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz’s production?

As Matt Kory said on Tuesday and as many are speculating, Edwin Encarnacion is the obvious answer. He’s a dynamic hitter who has thrived in the AL East, and he slides right into the DH/1B hole that the team would like to fill. Of course, there are going to be a ton of teams in on the slugger and his price will be driven up by a significant margin. I expect the Blue Jays to make a strong push to bring him back that will ultimately end up successful as they push Jose Bautista out the door.

In this scenario, I’d expect Bautista to be another hot name attached to the Red Sox in rumors. In the end, though, I see the team going with one of the mid-tier options on a shorter term deal. Front office executives always speak out of both sides of their mouths, but I believe Dombrowski when he says he believes there are enough hitters coming through the system that a long-term solution is not necessary. As such, I think they’ll go with an aging hitter like Carlos Beltran or Matt Holliday. They were attached to the former at the trade deadline, and there have already been reports they’ll be interested again this winter. Although I prefer Holliday, I think Beltran will be brought in on relatively lucrative one-year deal, possibly with a vesting option for a second.

How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?

God, this is so boring. Once again, I think Dombrowski and the Red Sox will go with a mid-tier option to fill this need. Expect their name to constantly be brought up with respect to Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, but don’t expect it to actually happen. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if most of those rumors are brought on from leaks on the player’s side, which will be willing to exaggerate facts to make their market appear more bullish among the big-market teams.

Instead, I think the Red Sox will search for that middle ground. Mark Melancon could be the best fit, as he’s proven himself to be outstanding, will cost a fraction of the big two, and won’t cost a draft pick. However, given his history here and the speculation that playing in a big market affected his performance, I wouldn’t bet on him either. I think they’ll be in play for Koji Uehara and/or Brad Ziegler, but will ultimately let both walk. The same goes for Greg Holland, whose market should be fascinating to watch. The group I believe they’ll be looking for would be Santiago Casilla, Joe Blanton, Sergio Romo, Neftali Feliz and Daniel Hudson. If I had to guess, I’d say Feliz will be the target, but it’s a large group and any one of the options would be a fit, albeit an underwhelming one.

I would also say that, if I were running the Red Sox (thank god that’s not the reality), I’d also target a left-handed reliever. Someone like Brett Cecil or Marc Rzepcynski could be big upgrades over what they’ve run out since Andrew Miller left. I don’t see it happening, though.

Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?

This really doesn’t sound like a Dombrowski offseason, but once again I don’t see them doing anything here. The big step forward from Rick Porcello was a huge development for the Red Sox, and with the weak starting pitching market I can’t see them paying big dollars or a big price in a trade for a spot they don’t really need. I believe this is a big part of why they traded for Drew Pomeranz in the summer, as he was both a help for the stretch run and something of an early offseason acquisition for 2017. David Price was Dombrowski’s biggest get as a member of the Red Sox, and I have to think they still believe in his ace potential even after a disappointing season. With him, Porcello and Pomeranz at the top, an intriguing Eduardo Rodriguez in the middle and Steven Wright and Clay Buchholz as back-end and depth options, I think they’ll be satisfied with their in-house options. If anyone is added, I’d guess it’ll be someone who will sign a minor-league deal and will serve as depth in spring training.

Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?

Everyone assumes Dombrowski can’t resist trading his prospect, but I don’t see it that way. To me, he’s a guy who’s not afraid to deal the necessary pieces in hopes of landing a big fish. As I’ve made abundantly clear, I don’t think they’ll feel the pressure to make that big addition like last year, when they needed both a closer and an ace. If they do make a trade, I think it’ll be for the set-up man they seek, which could cost one or more of their bottom-half top-ten prospects (hands off Dubon, though). Chris Sale will be the popular trade target, but I don’t think Chicago will trade him unless they get Yoan Moncada and either Andrew Benintendi or Jackie Bradley (plus more), something I don’t see the Red Sox doing. In the end, Sale appears to be the next Felix Hernandez and Giancarlo Stanton for Sox fans. With all of that being said, it wouldn’t shock me to see a big trade, but it’s not something I’m anticipating.

I would also say that I’d keep my eye out for a trade for a catcher. I don’t necessarily see it happening, and I wouldn’t predict it with Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart in house. If someone like Miguel Montero becomes available for pennies on the dollar, though, I could see the Red Sox diving into the market.

Miscellaneous Thoughts:

Biggest Acquisiton: Carlos Beltran
Biggest Loss: Koji Uehara
Biggest Surprise: Dave Dombrowski stays mostly quiet

Opening Day Roster Projection

Photo by Kevin Jairaj/USA Today Sports Images

It’s shaping up to be the most sedate offseason in a long while in Boston. The roster looks pretty set, much of the depth in the farm system has been spent, and the stable of youth on the Major League roster begs to be left alone to coalesce into a consistent championship core. Will Dave Dombrowski know enough to let well enough alone? Probably not! Let’s answer some questions!

How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz’s production?: 

The easy answer is to sign Edwin Encarnacion. The more I think about that, the more I hate it. Encarnacion is older (he’ll be 34), he’s a big name which will make him even more expensive, and signing him will cost extreme amounts of money and Boston’s first-round draft pick. The team is poised to take a step backwards offensively next season if for no other reason than regression to the mean, but this seems like killing an ant with a grenade launcher. Unfortunately for the future of the franchise, as we’ve seen over the past year, this is Dombrowski’s style. I’d prefer the team saved with an eye towards the huge 2018 free agent market and looked to a shorter-term solution like Carlos Beltran. He’s a name who has been getting some press recently, so it’s possible he requires two years rather than one, but even if so, he’s going to get a pittance compared to Encarnacion, and he won’t cost a draft pick. So I’ll cross my fingers and predict that.

However, if they’re going to go big, go really big and explore dealing for Joey Votto. He’s on a huge long term contract ($25 million annually until 2023 when he’ll be 39), but he’s also one of the best hitters in the game. He’s been at least a six win player by WARP every year but one since 2010. As we’ve seen with Ortiz and even Beltran, elite offensive players can maintain productivity into their late 30s (considering his late blossoming I’m less convinced this applies to Encarnacion). Votto is the rare player who can replace Ortiz’s on-field production one-for-one, and given their current state it’s entirely possible the Reds would be open to dealing him. He’d be perfect to plug into the middle of the Red Sox lineup. Imagine a three-four-five of Votto-Betts-Ramirez! Yummy.

But still, the guess here is just Beltran.

How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?:

Here’s another opportunity for Dombrowski to slam down a nail with a sledge hammer. He could throw $100 million (or more!) at Kenley Jansen but, again, I’d rather save that money and buy some portion of Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw or Bryce Harper a year down the line. The Red Sox pen could undoubtedly use some reinforcements, but the smart clubs either draft Jansen, or make the Andrew Millers of the world from failed starting pitchers. That doesn’t seem to be Dombrowski’s style, though, so expect the Red Sox to be heavily involved in the Jansen/Aroldis Chapman rumors. That said, in the end it’s going to be too heavy for even Dombrowski considering he already has Craig Kimbrel in the closer’s role, so expect a trade or two. Perhaps a sizable prospect package for a middle reliever (just enough to cause Red Sox Twitter to poop their collective pants) and/or a player like Clay Buchholz for a seventh-inning guy. Perhaps, dare I dream, a player like Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers. It won’t be the best use of resources, but it’ll plug the leak for another season. 

Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?: 

For the record, I like the Red Sox rotation as it is. Porcello probably won’t be as effective as he was in 2016 but David Price should be better. Also, I expect more from Eduardo Rodriguez, and Drew Pomeranz should be around for the whole season. That’s a strong top four. And I didn’t even mention Steven Wright or Clay Buchholz, two more-than-capable fifth starters. Really, there’s no reason to spend the kind of prospect/player capital necessary to acquire a Jose Quintana or Chris Sale, but given the guy in charge, that kind of subtlety need not apply. 

So, given that, one advantage to adding a free agent like Encarnacion or Beltran is all the big prospects can be devoted to upgrading the rotation. We recall last season when Chris Sale was heavily rumored to be available, and after the way the White Sox season finished, it seems he’ll at least be placed on the market to see what offers are available. We’re not breaking any news by saying Dombrowski loves Sale. In fairness, who doesn’t? Surely Dombrowski is intrigued by bludgeoning the AL East with a Sale-Price-Porcello top of the rotation. And really, it sounds fantastic. The issue is how much it’ll cost and what that cost will be to the future of the franchise. That’s the type of move I’d expect though. A big name for big prospects. 

Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?:  

Probably is the correct answer. Dombrowski is the antithesis of a prospect hugger, so for the right player (Chris Sale) he won’t be afraid to move a Yoan Moncada whereas most GMs would be terrified (rightly) that they’d just traded away the best and cheapest seasons of a young Alex Rodriguez. When it comes to Moncada specifically, it’s also worth noting, for as impressive as he’s been in the minors and as touted as he is (probably the number one prospect in baseball), Dombrowski didn’t scout or sign him. Moncada is the old GM’s guy. The vast millions spent on bringing him in were fought for and spent on Ben Cherington’s watch, so while Cherington might be all in on Moncada making an impact in Boston had he stayed with the organization, Dombrowski doesn’t have that burden. He sees Moncada as another asset in his prospect cabinet, another way to improve the Major League roster right now. That’s not to say he’ll give Moncada away, but with Dave Dombrowski, there are no untouchables in the minor leagues. If Chris Sale is available, and I expect he will be for the right offer, Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox will be first in line with Yoan Moncada the primary bait. Perhaps a package of Moncada, Mauricio Dubon and Eduardo Rodriguez would peak the White Sox interest. 

Miscellaneous Thoughts: 

Biggest Acquisition: Chris Sale
Biggest Departure: Yoan Moncada, Clay Buchholz
Biggest Surprise: Chris Sale!!!

Top photo by David Banks II/USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox only have a few holes in the roster as it’s currently constructed, but they’re obvious. The retirement of David Ortiz makes the roster more flexible, but it also takes away one of the best offensive players of 2016. The impending departures of Koji Uehara, Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa also leave a lot of spots open in the bullpen. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts essentially require contract extensions at this point. Clay Buchholz’s option will probably be picked up, but his usage is still up in the air. As you can see, there’s quite a bit on the Sox’s itinerary.

Naturally, there are already suggestions as to how best to fill the holes. Signing Edwin Encarnacion or Jose Bautista is a big one. Adding Kenley Jansen seems to have picked up steam in recent weeks. Trading for a first baseman like Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt has been out there for a while. Then there’s the more conservative options, like bringing back Uehara and Ziegler. Most of these options are viable, sure. But most of them are also costly. A signing of Encarnacion, Bautista, or Jansen would likely require a big contract relative to their peers, and a trade for Votto or Goldschmidt is going to require giving away at least a few good prospects. The Red Sox can’t clean out all their resources now, not with what’s coming the next two winters.

Next winter, Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish and Craig Kimbrel could all become free agents. All of them will require a burdensome contract to reel in. All of them would make a great fit on the Red Sox. The year after that is even more bonkers. Guys like Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, and Madison Bumgarner all hit free agency, making it a winter that could define the next decade. On top of all that, that’s when David Price can exercise the opt-out in his contract. The Red Sox would behoove themselves to take advantage of that potential upheaval, and the preparation can begin now with little short-term harm to the team.

1. The first order of business would be to try and lock up the two players vital to the Red Sox’s core in Betts and Bogaerts. This is also where you begin to outline exactly how much you could have to spend over the next two winters. The Red Sox have to move now on this because if they get better – and all signs point to them doing so – it’ll become even harder to retain them, and these are two budding stars they can’t afford to lose. With Jackie Bradley Jr., however, they can wait and see. He’s a superb defensive outfielder, but the offense comes and goes with him, evidenced by the .926 OPS in the first half of the season, and the free fall to a .728 mark in the second half. He’s not as urgent as the other two.
2. After that, the next thing should be to work on the relief pitching. Bringing back Uehara is a nice idea, but he showed clear signs of regression in 2016, and would have to come back on a much lighter contract than what he had. Brad Ziegler is a candidate for re-signing, but there have been rumors that the Diamondbacks would like to get him back this winter. Kenley Jansen is a nice idea, and would be one hell of a bullpen combo with Kimbrel. As relievers go, he’s one of the best and most consistent out there. He’ll probably ask for a contract like the four-year, $50 million one that Jonathan Papelbon got back in 2011, and while that’s not the most punishing thing, it’s steep for a guy who might only pitch four percent of all possible innings pitched. Of the possible big contracts, his is probably the safest.
3. Hitting should be the last thing on the Red Sox’s list. The hole left by Ortiz isn’t as huge as you might think. You don’t need an Encarnacion or a Votto to make up for some of that offense. The Red Sox rolled out the best offense in the American League with a .269 TAv, and it won’t hurt to drop a little, especially with the competition in the AL East losing a lot of their key players, most notably Toronto. Instead of vying for Encarnacion or Bautista, the Red Sox would probably come out better by going for someone like Matt Holliday or Carlos Beltran for a year or two. It makes the roster a little inflexible, but the Red Sox don’t have a comparable hitter on the roster, and no, Travis Shaw isn’t going to cut it. A short contract with an older hitter would do wonders for the team.

A plan like that would keep the Red Sox in the running for whatever they want over the next two summers. They don’t need to throw money everywhere. The pitching needs some tune ups in the relief corps and the offense doesn’t require a drastic overhaul. The Sox could probably spend $65M on just Jansen and Holliday, call it a winter, and still come to Spring Training as a pretty strong favorite to win another AL East pennant. They’d be limiting themselves in the near future by spending a lot in the upcoming one.

This will be the second winter with Dave Dombrowski at the helm, and I’m very curious to see what he’ll do. The Red Sox are definitely changing, and adeptly navigating the next few years could prove to be both career- and franchise-defining. The thing about success is that it’s a lot easier to initially achieve it than to consistently do so. Being conservative this offseason could go a long way to keeping the Red Sox winning for a long while.

Photo by Gary A. Vazquez/USA Today Sports Images

The interesting aspect to this comes when you consider the fact that the Red Sox had one of the best offenses in baseball this season. By Runs Scored they were first by a lot. They were also first in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Most total offensive metrics had them first or second as well, though our TAv had them sixth (no, I can’t explain it). The point is, the Red Sox won a lot of games in 2016 and many, especially in the first half of the season, were due to the overpowering nature of their offense. Ortiz’s loss in the clubhouse can’t be replaced, but while he was magnificent on the field, authoring maybe the best season ever by a 40-year-old, the raw numbers and production can be.

The largest portion of the replacement may come from the free-agent market where there is actually a healthy number of options to directly fill Ortiz’s position. Players like Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Beltran or Jose Bautista could replicate some decent-to-large percentage of what Ortiz did this season. Team President Dave Dombrowski hasn’t indicated whether he will look to add someone from that pool of players, but whether he does or not, it likely won’t fill the hole entirely. That’s because finding someone to step in and hit .315/.401/.620 as Ortiz did this season is a difficult proposition. Perhaps the Red Sox will acquire Freddie Freeman from the Braves or Joey Votto from the Reds, but outside of a huge addition like that, the trick will be to make incremental improvements across the lineup. The Red Sox will explore all avenues of improvement but the plan likely isn’t to add one big player and expect him to replace Ortiz one-for-one. Instead, they’ll need to get small bits from everybody in the lineup and with each step or half-step forward the loss of Ortiz is slightly lessened.

We’re talking about the highest scoring offense in baseball here, so improvement will be difficult, right? Is Mookie Betts going to hit better than a .900 OPS with 31 homers? Is Sandy Leon really going to reach .310/.369/.476 again, let alone best it? Well, no, probably not. I don’t count Mookie Betts out of anything, but it’s hard to see him doing better next season. However, that does bring up an interesting point, which is this: Betts is 23. He’ll be 24 next season. The Red Sox feature a number of important players in that age range, including Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Blake Swihart, who figures to play a more significant role in 2017. Players in their early and mid-20s are typically candidates to improve, simply based on normal aging patterns. It’s not outlandish to think Betts could improve his on-base next season as pitchers stop challenging him inside the strike zone. In fact, if you look at Betts’ monthly splits, you can see that kind of thing happening. Betts got off to a rough start in April with a .298 OBP, and put up .348 and .331 numbers in May and June. In July he kicked it up to .415 and August was virtually the same at .414. September saw a .373 OBP, so you could see some improvement there as Betts was forced to become more selective due to pitchers’ fears of getting burned. Maybe the homers aren’t quite there next season but the OBP more than makes up for it and there is some of Ortiz’s value.

Jackie Bradley did his all-or-nothing act again in 2016, going from being the best hitter in the game to the player who lost his major league roster spot in 2014. Some consistency in between scorching hot stretches would push Bradley into the upper echelon of hitters as well as hold on to a bit of Ortiz’s production. There are numerous other possibilities as well. Andrew Benintendi should get a full season in left field which will help. Can Hanley Ramirez or Dustin Pedroia get even a little bit better? I’m skeptical but maybe.

A bigger and more easily gained improvement is available at third base as 2016 was yet another season the Red Sox production from third was awful. That figures to change in the next few seasons as Yoan Moncada and/or Rafael Devers make their way(s) to Boston, but for now the team seems to be stuck with Travis Shaw. Perhaps Moncada makes the leap next season and provides the spark he was unable to give this season, but there’s a more likely long shot here and that is Pablo Sandoval.

Sandoval missed virtually the entire 2016 campaign after shoulder surgery, but he’s been a better-than-league average hitter in every season but his first in Boston in 2015. It’s not unreasonable to think that after a year off he can come back healthy, which he presumably wasn’t before, and in good shape (relatively speaking). Simply achieving league average would be an improvement over the low bar the team set at third base in 2016.

Other than a Sandoval reinvention, the Red Sox’s best hopes for offensive improvement probably lie with Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts has ticked up offensively each season he’s spent in the majors, but each season has also come with significant down periods. In 2016, Bogaerts fell apart towards the end of the year, highlighted by an especially difficult August. Even so, an .802 OPS from shortstop is quite good, but with Bogaerts’ obvious talent, it’s not crazy to say there is another gear in there somewhere, one with more power, more consistency, and better on-base ability. If there’s a player who can take a significant step forward in 2017 on the Red Sox roster and in doing so take a huge chunk out of the heap of productivity the Red Sox are losing through David Ortiz’s retirement, it’s Bogaerts.

Taken individually, each of these along with others are good, but taken together, the Red Sox can offset the loss of Ortiz to some large degree. Of course, forecasting improvement across the board is a dicey proposition. Typically some players improve while others, maybe some you don’t see coming, fall down. For the Red Sox to withstand losing David Ortiz and maintain their title as the best hitting team in baseball, they’re going to need Bradley, Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, and Andrew Benintendi as well as others to improve. Given the ages and talents of the players involved it’s probably less pie-in-the-sky than you might think.

Or they could just go out and trade for Mike Trout. Either way, really.

Photo by Mike Dinovo/USA Today Sports Images

With this in mind I have put together a list of free agent hitters that check a lot of the boxes that the Red Sox are trying to fill in a post Ortiz world. The replacement(s) will need to hit right-handed pitching extremely well and presumably be a power bat. Considering that the remainder of the Red Sox positions are well set for next season, the addition will likely be someone who can slot in at the DH spot, first base, or rotate in the outfield or at third base.  With Sandoval’s bat returning to the lineup in some capacity the need for that bat to be left-handed is not a hard-and-fast rule. Here is the best fits of the available options:

The Old Expensive Sluggers

Edwin Encarnacion: Bats-Righty, Age for 2017 Season-34, Draft Pick Loss:-Yes

Often talked about as a replacement for Ortiz, initially because Ortiz mentioned him, Encarnacion brings power to the table in spades coming off a season where he hit 42 home runs, tying a career high. The consensus is that even at 34 years old to start the 2017 season, the Dominican power hitter will command a deal of at least four years and upwards of $100 million. The price is substantial but he can do the best out of any option to replace Ortiz’s production on his own.  Last year Ortiz posted a TAv of .317, which was one of the better marks in all of baseball. Encarnacion had a mark of .291 and PECOTA projects .281 for 2017.  

Despite being a right-handed bat Encarnacion has mashed right-handed pitching, slashing .268/.349/.532 with 33 home runs with a TAv of .290.  He was even better against left-handed pitching with a TAv of .294. This guy is the total package and can rotate between DH and 1B with Ramirez. Encarnacion is not a great fielder, but FRAA has him ranked as a substantially better first baseman than Ramirez at -2.9 vs. -10.5.  Encarnacion is the most expensive but best solution even, if he limits Boston’s flexibility with rotating players at DH. It does not come without risk, since last year marked his lowest contact and z-contact percentage of his career, marks that have been falling since 2013.

Jose Bautista: Bats-Righty, Age for 2017 Season-36, Draft Pick Loss:-Yes

This is an interesting option, but one that is difficult to envision without the Red Sox moving on from one of their outfielders via a trade. Bautista has not graded out as a positive defender in right field over the last two seasons but he is still adequate enough to warrant a full-time job in the field for some club.  Last season’s .270 TAv was his lowest since his pre-breakout season in 2009 but PECOTA likes him for a strong bounce back in 2017 with a projected mark of .305.

While I don’t love this option due to his advanced age and high cost, Bautista is not without his strengths.  He can play right field, which makes left field at Fenway a possibility as he ages, and he has also seen time at first base over his career should he lose more mobility.  Bautista’s bat has also never shown any platoon splits.  It does remain to be seen whether or not his dip in performance this year is due to father time or just a down year but I wouldn’t want to take that risk for someone who will command a very high pay day.  

Old Guys on Short Deals

Matt Holliday: Bats-Right, Age for 2017 Season-37, Draft Pick Loss:-No

This is a very intriguing option made available by the Cardinals choosing to buy out the last year on his deal worth $17 million rather than hang onto the aging slugger.  Since they declined the option, which was lower than the $17.2 million qualifying offer set for 2017, the Red Sox would not need to give up a draft pick to sign Holliday. Holliday will likely be limited to American League teams due to his extremely limited fielding, but he could play LF of 1B for his new team as long as it was in a limited role.  

Holliday isn’t what he used to be but his TAv of .279 in limited time last year proves he is still very useful.  One of the better hitters of his generation, Holliday has never shown any platoon splits, and he crushes right-handed pitching.  This bat, coupled with his flexibility and the fact that he likely won’t command more than a two-year deal, make him very attractive.  PECOTA has him pegged for a nearly identical TAv of .282.  If he is willing to come to Boston this is a very attractive option for the team and the player.  His swing seems tailor-made for pounding the green monster.

Carlos Beltran: Bats-Switch, Age for 2017 Season-40, Draft Pick Loss:-No

Here’s a bold idea; replace one 40-year-old future Hall-of-Famer with another. What could go wrong? After all, Beltran mostly does bat from the left side and has been great in his career vs LHP. Last year though, he was much better against lefties than righties and he had a fairly substantial drop-off in slugging percentage in the second half.  For his career, however, he has been substantially better vs RHP. Given his age and lack of mobility Beltran played more than half the season at DH and would likely do so again. He does, however, have the ability to play both RF and LF and he had a very respectable TAv of .279 last season.  PECOTA projects him to have a massive drop-off in 2017 all the way down to a TAv of .244.  The Sox can probably do better than this.  

The Other Guys

Josh Reddick: Bats-Lefty, Age for 2017 Season-30, Draft Pick Loss:-No

Hey, we know this guy! Drafted by the Sox in 2006 and there until the end of 2011, Reddick is a familiar face, and one that the team would benefit from having back. Ryan Sweeney and Andrew Bailey didn’t work out so well and since that terrible trade, Reddick has enjoyed his four best seasons. If you want a righty-masher then Reddick is your guy with a TAv of .317 against them last year. He is rather pathetic against LHP, though, so a platoon partner would be ideal.  If the Sox were to trade Jackie Bradley Jr. to the White Sox in a deal for Chris Sale, for example, this would represent an ideal player to pair with Chris Young in LF.  

Reddick’s stats all show he is entering his prime as a hitter and he posted a respectable .277 TAv last year with PECOTA projecting a mark of .266 for next. Reddick also rated as the 7th best RF in baseball by FRAA so defense would not be an issue.  This may be the type of player better suited to be signed alongside another name on this list and only acquired if an outfield spot is vacated. The Dodgers know his value and have plenty of money to spend. He will not be easy to sign nor will he be cheap,  and because of the mid-season trade from Oakland to LA he does not have any compensation attached to him.

Steve Pearce: Bats-Righty, Age for 2017 Season-34, Draft Pick Loss:-No

A familiar foe, Pearce has plied his trade with both Baltimore and Tampa Bay in recent years so Sox fans know what he can do. Pearce provides the ultimate in flexibility, just like Brock Holt, and has played nearly every position on the diamond over the last three seasons. His bat is also vastly underrated.  In a part-time role last season his .310 TAv was closest on this list to the .317 of Ortiz. He hits both right- and left-handed pitching well and could rotate anywhere John Farrell needs him. Pearce is 34 and coming off elbow surgery so he is by no means a perfect solution.  PECOTA is also skeptical he can keep up the success predicting a TAv of .251 for next year.  There is no doubt he can help the team but might be best signed alongside another player on this list.  

Conclusion

Encarnacion remains the best option for replacing Ortiz but the job can certainly be done in another way.  If a trade can be made with the White Sox then I favor signing Reddick and Pearce and running a platoon in left while also rotating Pearce at DH and around the field with Sandoval, Shaw, and Ramirez. I ruled out Mike Napoli, Mitch Moreland, Mark Trumbo, Ian Desmond, Michael Saunders, and Kendrys Morales because their skills didn’t fit the needs of this team as well as the six players above. However, those players do remain options that the team may explore.      

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