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	<title>Boston &#187; Carlos Carrasco</title>
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		<title>An Optimist’s View</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/08/an-optimists-view/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/08/an-optimists-view/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Aug 2017 13:00:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matthew Kory]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Carrasco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Sale]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corey Kluber]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Craig Kimbrel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cy Young]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dallas Keuchel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Pomeranz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dustin Pedroia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eduardo Rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jackie Bradley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Foulke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lance McCullers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Madison Bumgarner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mitch Moreland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mookie Betts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pedro Martinez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Porcello]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roger Clemens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xander Bogaerts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=24714</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[These Red Sox have a few things going for them.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This hasn’t been the smoothest season in Red Sox history. There have been injuries, under-performance, and off-the-field drama all of which has contributed to making the season bumpier than we’d like. But, if we’re being honest with ourselves, all of that stuff felt worse in the moment compared to how it impacted the Red Sox success on the field. Most every bit of what these Red Sox have been through is common to most every baseball team most every season.</p>
<p>Players get hurt, players have bad runs, and teams hit patches where it seems every single player can’t do something for a month or more. The crazy thing about baseball is that that stuff happens and it doesn’t mean the team isn’t any good. There was a period of time where, over an 82 game span, the 2004 Red Sox went 41-41. That’s more than half a season of the greatest, most important Red Sox team of all time playing like an utterly forgettable also-ran. In a more specific and urgent sense, none of the stuff that has happened to the 2017 Red Sox is disqualifying for overall success, and indeed it isn’t difficult to see how this team could end up being really good. So let’s look at that!</p>
<p>How could the 2017 Red Sox be really good? To me, this all starts with Chris Sale. Sale isn’t peak Pedro, but he’s as close as Boston has come since the greatest of all time left town. By FanGraphs WAR, the top two seasons ever by a Red Sox starting pitcher are Pedro’s 1999 and 2000 in that order. The next four are by Roger Clemens and the four after that are all by Cy Young. Pedro’s best begins at 11.6 WAR and Young’s worst of his best is 7.7 WAR. Sale is at 6.5 now, and on pace for roughly two more wins between now and the end of the season. That would put him in fourth place all time, ahead of all of Young’s seasons and ahead of three of the Rocket’s four. That’s the kind of amazing season Chris Sale is having: better than any season Cy Young ever had in Boston and better than almost every season from maybe the greatest pitcher ever in Clemens. Now, imagine that guy (Sale) pitching twice in a best-of-five series, or three times in a best-of-seven series. There is a very real opportunity for Sale to have the kind of post-season impact previously reserved for Madison Bumgarner.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/brLINZMIeic" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>After Sale, imagine a healthy David Price! Yes, Drew Pomeranz has been fantastic this season, as good as anyone could’ve hoped, and he&#8217;d be fine starting game two, but he’s no healthy David Price, and neither is Rick Porcello or Eduardo Rodriguez. I said at the beginning of the season that David Price’s regular season almost didn’t matter. What mattered is how he pitches when the playoffs come around. His latest arm ailment throws that into question but if Price can get healthy enough to be the Red Sox number two starter, Boston can get three Sale/Price starts in a five game series and five in a seven game series. In other words, the only way the Red Sox lose a playoff round is if someone beats either Sale or Price. While you&#8217;re thinking how beatable Price is, remember we’re talking about a pitcher who put up a 2.52 ERA in July while striking out 25 percent of hitters and walking just 6.5 percent. That’s a heck of a number two. Cleveland’s starting staff can’t compete with that and neither can Houston’s, and that’s before we’ve even discussed what Eduardo Rodriguez or Drew Pomeranz can do.</p>
<p>The main competition for the Red Sox in the AL this season comes from the Indians, Astros, and Yankees. You could argue that the Red Sox advantage in starting pitching isn’t so big because the Indians have Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco (and they do), while the Astros have Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers (and they do). Except neither first starter is in the same league as Chris Sale (though Kluber isn’t far off), and neither second starter is nearly as good as a healthy David Price. If Price comes back healthy, he represents a huge advantage for the Red Sox in the post-season.</p>
<p>The same could also be said of Craig Kimbrel. We’ve all seen the impact relievers can have in the post-season, and with Kimbrel authoring one of the best reliever seasons we’ve seen in Boston in a long time, the opportunity for him to have an out-sized impact on the Red Sox&#8217;s postseason fortunes exists. The fact that manager John Farrell has occasionally been willing to use Kimbrel for longer outings and earlier in games when the leverage is higher during the regular season, and that bodes well for the same strong usage patterns in the playoffs. The fact that the Red Sox bullpen has been so good this season doesn’t hurt either, as they are equipped to cover for Kimbrel in the ninth should he be needed earlier in the game.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6vodJuL72Fw" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>Finally we get to the offense which, there’s really no other way to put it, has underwhelmed this season. Coming off a July that saw Boston collectively hit a profoundly mediocre .248/.315/.367 (and honestly I’m shocked it’s that high), the mood surrounding the offense was understandably pessimistic. However, in the seven games since July ended (with six of those admittedly coming against the garbage White Sox), Boston has hit .288/.357/.559. They’re not that good they&#8217;re absolutely able to get that hot for periods of time, such as, oh I don&#8217;t know, five or seven game stretches.</p>
<p>Individually, we’ve seen odd seasons from Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts featuring less power than we know is there. The same could be said, in fact, of Jackie Bradley, Dustin Pedroia, Mitch Moreland, and even though maybe unfairly, Andrew Benintendi. That’s quite a group of players for whom a collective small bump towards career average could mean a substantial uptick in team offensive production.</p>
<p>Put it all together and you&#8217;ve got a team with a potentially dominating top of the rotation, a fantastic bullpen (and imagine, if Price does get healthy, how adding Pomeranz to the pen would look), and offense that&#8217;s over due for a break out. The ’04 team’s comeback against the Yankees, the ’07 team’s comeback against the Indians, and pretty much every damn thing about the 2013 team teach us that in the baseball playoffs you never know what can happen. But it’s not all luck, despite Billy Beane’s famous statement. Having Madison Bumgarner can help. Having Keith Foulke doesn’t hurt. The Red Sox have reasonable facsimiles of those guys, and a lineup with the capability to get moving at a more productive clip. It’s not hard to squint into the sun and see this Red Sox team doing something we haven’t seen since the august October of 2013. So when it happens, if it happens, you can be shocked, you can be surprised, you can be euphoric, but don’t say nobody ever saw it coming.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Bob DeChiara &#8211; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>BP Boston Unfiltered: The Big Dombrowski</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/01/bp-boston-unfiltered-the-big-dombrowski/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/01/bp-boston-unfiltered-the-big-dombrowski/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2015 10:00:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bryan Grosnick]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BP Boston Unfiltered]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Revere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Gardner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Matusz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Carrasco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Davis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Farquhar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Evan Longoria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joakim Soria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Fernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tommy Hunter]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2985</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let's get weird with what Dave Dombrowski's offseason could've looked like. Sort of.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Every year, fans and armchair GMs look at the work a front office does, and they say “I could do better.” It never fails.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Every year, Max Rieper of Royals Review at SB Nation runs a simulation of the offseason, asking 30 persons (and associated helpers) to play at being General Manager of all 30 MLB franchises. It&#8217;s an enjoyable exercise only tangentially related to reality, where bloggers of all stripes play-act as General Managers, negotiate trades and free agent deals with other real people, and attempt to re-shape an organization int heir own image.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">(We also dialed it back to the start of the 2015 offseason, so no Craig Kimbrel trade took place in our alternate reality.)</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Last year, I hired a team of brilliant minds from Beyond the Box Score to help me run the Shadow Red Sox. The strategy: attempt to emulate Ben Cherington and company’s massive braintrust, in order to turn around a franchise that went from first-to-worst in a down 2014. <a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/28/a-kinder-gentler-alternate-red-sox-reality/" target="_blank">We traded for Giancarlo Stanton. We signed Kenta Maeda. We went wild.</a></span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Somehow, I was brought back to helm the Shadow Red Sox once again this season. But in the era of Dave Dombrowski, I knew I must play a bigger, better role. Like Dombrowski, expectations were high – my team’s handling of the Red Sox’ faux offseason in the previous year earned praise from most corners of the simulation. I was expected, like Dombrowski, to turn the team around from a bottom-of-the-East finish.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I promised myself that I would stick to a plan.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The plan was a simple one: I would fix the Red Sox using the primary resources at my disposal: the best farm system in baseball (suck it, BP Wrigleyville) and a bunch of cash. I would make the Red Sox relevant, competitive in 2016, but also able to change and adapt if the team did not see immediate success. I was assigned a budget of $204 million, which I think was higher than the real-world budget for the Sox, but not too far off.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Getting into specifics, my plan had a few key components:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Trade for an ace</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Acquire an ace in free agency</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Fix the bullpen</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Upgrade in an outfield corner</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Rid the team of Pablo Sandoval’s contract</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Sounds pretty simple, right?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">My primary free agent targets were threefold, and they all had something in common: no qualifying offers. They were:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">David Price</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Yoenis Cespedes</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Ben Zobrist</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">As the simulation was about to start, I reached out to a number of teams for my “trade for an ace” strategy. Since trade talks take actual time, I knew I had to act fast. I reached out to the Indians (Kluber), Mets (pick a guy), Marlins (Fernandez) and Rays (Archer) for initial talks. The Indians weren’t all that excited about Kluber, but talks quickly shifted to Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar. They expressed interest in JBJ (actually, almost 10 teams contacted me about him) and Christian Vazquez.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Since I’ve been doing a lot of research on the Indians for an upcoming project, I had a few pet guys I wanted to add to any potential deal. I tried to ask for the moon, in my eyes, by including a top-end prospect as part of the deal as well. After all, I was willing to offer an immediate starter with upside, JBJ and Vazzy.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">After a little back and forth, we worked out this deal:</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox acquire Carlos Carrasco, Clint Frazier, Shawn Armstrong, Yandy Diaz, and Mike Clevinger from Cleveland for Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, Henry Owens, Garin Cecchini, and Robbie Ross</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I couldn’t believe that I got Frazier in this deal with the Indians&#8217; braintrust: I think he’s a top-25 prospect. So, I had dealt away much of my MLB-ready depth, but I actually ADDED to the team’s prospect stock, acquired a No. 2 starter, nabbed a guy in Armstrong who could be a late-inning reliever, and got flyers on two guys that I think can be good major-leaguers. Great start, and the “best” trade of the offseason, in my view. Oh, and we’re way under the identified $200 million budget.</span></p>
<ul>
<li><del><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Trade for an ace</span></del></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">(Oh, I exercised options on Ortiz and Buchholz, and non-tendered Cook, Ogando, and Varvaro. But that’s boring)</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Elsewhere, chaos ensued. Miami took on loads of money to acquire Lucas Giolito and Trea Turner from Washington (lol). Pittsburgh started a complete teardown (we talked a little about a McCutchen trade).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Now it was time to cut costs.</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox acquire Elniery Garcia from Philadelphia for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Allen Craig is making a lot of money, and I did NOT want to pay him. Giving up Joe Kelly was a small price to pay to make him go away, and I took on a prospect I do not feel strongly about. But with Owens and Kelly out of the picture, it was becoming more mission-critical to add another solid starter.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Unfortunately, the free agent market for starting pitching was … it wasn’t good, that’s for sure. We&#8217;ll get to more of that later, but no starter is worth more than $35 million per year.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I kept going back and forth with the Marlins about Jose Fernandez, and quickly found out just how much they valued Yoan Moncada. While I really like Moncada, I also really like Jose Fernandez. We worked out a deal focusing on Moncada and Andrew Benintendi, and yes, I know that’s a big package. Before finalizing the deal, I tried to swap out Clint Frazier for Benintendi. I prefer AB to CF, but the Marlins felt the reverse.</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox acquire Jose Fernandez from Miami for Yoan Moncada, Clint Frazier, Michael Chavis, Austin Rei, and Nick Longhi</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Ah, now we’re Dombrowski-ing. Two potential top-25 prospects, plus Chavis, plus two other pieces, but suddenly I have my coveted True Ace. And he’s cheap! This is where I start to get greedy, imagining a rotation of Fernandez, Price, Carrasco, Eduardo, and Buchholz. I crack my knuckles. I get to work.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I find out that David Price is in line for a huge deal, one that would eventually be worth $259 million dollars. That’s $37 million per year over seven years.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I slowly back out of the negotiation room.</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><del><span style="font-weight: 400">Trade for an ace</span></del></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Sign an ace in free agency</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">     <del> </del></span><del><span style="font-weight: 400">Trade for another ace, I guess</span></del></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I kept in on several free agent pitchers: Zack Greinke would eventually price himself out of my range (more on that in a minute), and I wasn’t high enough on Zimmermann or Cueto to make a major offer there. But, the rotation I now had (Fernandez, Carrasco, Ed, Buchholz, Porcello) would work just fine. I actually, despite talking with others on trades (what can I get for Porcello and cash) and inquiring on mid-level free agents (Marco Estrada!), eventually chose to roll with this rotation. We had six starters (we kept Miley also!), which will be great after Buchholz’s elbow eventually detonates.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">New plan: spend loads of money on free agent outfielders. Maybe two. A big upgrade on Rusney Castillo, and a replacement for JBJ. Oh, and maybe I can engage the Marlins on Giancarlo Stanton? Maybe Jason Heyward AND Cespedes?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In the meantime, I started fielding some calls on relievers, and trying to find a taker for Panda. Oh! If I was going to move Sandoval, I’d need a third baseman, right? I considered pushing Hanley over to third, but also was completely willing to roll with Yandy Diaz there to start the season. Then again, that’s not very Dombrowski. Maybe I should ask in on some Pablo replacements?</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox sign Brian Matusz to a two-year, $8 million contract</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Bullpen is fixed!</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Or … at least we have a lefty. I was very surprised to see him non-tendered, but hey, this gave me another idea. “Can I destroy the rest of the AL East? Can I damage my rivals while making myself stronger.” The answer, eventually, would be a decisive “maybe.”</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox acquire Scott Lieser from Milwaukee for Pablo Sandoval and Javier Guerra</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Before you judge me too harshly, keep in mind that at this point, I really thought I could acquire two premium outfielders, or maybe still make a run at Greinke. To do that, I wanted to make sure that I not only had salary space, but that a long, expensive contract could come off the books. That meant ditching Pablo. And the best way to do that, was to package him with a prospect people actually wanted. Guerra’s mostly blocked, but I still would’ve rather dealt him for value … but I consider this selling him for the remainder of Pablo’s contract, or about $75 million.</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox acquire Danny Farquhar from Seattle for Devin Marrero</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This is <em>not</em> a value trade. This is an attempt to get another relief arm that could be good, in exchange for a guy who probably has no real role on the team. It was either back to the minors, or lose him in Rule 5. We’ve still got Holt, and we’d get a replacement that I think has a little more upside later.</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox sign Tommy Hunter to a two-year, $10 million contract</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In hindsight, I’m afraid I overpaid here. I’m desperate to add live arms to the bullpen, but also to give the team depth and different looks. Hunter’s bad luck on HR in Chicago didn’t faze me, but for this money, I’d hope you could get a .7-win reliever. Not sure that’s Hunter. But he’s an improvement over, say, Alexi Ogando.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">We still need an outfielder, and I’ve been sufficiently scared off my top choices. Jason Heyward would eventually get 11 years and over $300 million. Cespedes would get $200 million as well. Alex Gordon took a discount to stay in Kansas City.</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox sign Chris Davis to a five-year, $115 million contract</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Meet your new right fielder. If there’s one hallmark of my two-year tenure as Fake Red Sox GM, it’s that you should never be beholden to traditional position restraints … especially when you have a guy who has proven competence outside his normal realm. Davis has been successful enough as a right fielder in Baltimore, that I’m comfortable leaving him there until 2017, in which time Hanley can shift to DH, and Davis can reclaim first base.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">… did I mention that Hanley’s getting every opportunity at first base? I gave serious consideration about moving him back to third, just in case the team can’t acquire a decent third baseman – or maybe even trying Davis there for an extended look. Maybe I should go get a third baseman.</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox sign Joakim Soria to a three-year, $33 million contract</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Eleven million per season is a lot, and I don’t care how good you are. But despite offering a decent amount for Aroldis Chapman, I really didn’t have any good leads on closers, and closers are typically pretty great relievers. I feel a lot less comfortable giving up prospects for closers than I do money, but this one could sting in year three.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This actually completes the team’s revamped bullpen. I expect it to look something like this on Opening Day:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">CL: Joakim Soria<br />
</span>SU: Koji Uehara<br />
SU: Junichi Tazawa<br />
MR: Brian Matusz<br />
MR: Tommy Hunter<br />
MR: Danny Farquhar<br />
MR: Jean Machi<br />
MR: Shawn Armstrong<br />
LR: Wade Miley</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It’s not perfect, but it’s a lot better than what we were working with in 2015, and I think a lot of the guys like Layne, Aro, etc. can work in the minors, and you can play a game of “who’s doing well now” versus “oh crap, we have no one good.” No Craig Kimbrel, though &#8230; that&#8217;s kind of a bummer.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I’d end up exploring a few more moves (Marco Estrada, now that I broke the seal and signed someone with a QO, trading for AJ Ramos, selling Rick Porcello low), but this finalized the pitching staff, more or less.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">But this isn’t a Big Dombrowski. We need to convert prospect depth into high-end talent – even more than we already have – to make this a Big Dombrowski. And, ideally, we should crush a rival in the process.</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox acquire Evan Longoria from Tampa Bay for Rafael Devers, Manny Margot, Rusney Castillo, Brian Johnson, and $30 million</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">There we go. I can certainly see how some people would see this as an overpay, but I still believe in Longoria being a near-elite player on a friendly contract, so I was willing to deal several players who are quite good for him. I’m lower on Castillo and Johnson than most, but I really, really value Devers – I think he could eventually be a star.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">That having been said, this is a Dombrowski move. Get someone from a Florida team, who can help you win now. Plus, Longoria is a right-handed bat, meaning that the Sox are now really well-balanced with the additions of both Davis and Longo. It’s a steep price to pay, but the team is very close to having the best lineup in the AL. Eat it, Toronto.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">We still have some money left over, right? And with Castillo gone, we definitely need a new outfielder, again. Ben Zobrist could work as a play, but he priced himself very high, going to San Diego for five years and over $20 million per season. Can’t quite compete with that.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Hm. Toronto.</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox acquire Ben Revere from Toronto for Matt Barnes</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Barnes still has life in his arm, but Revere is quietly a pretty decent offensive option in left. He’s like a poor-man’s Brett Gardner, now that Gardner’s defense has slipped to normal-human levels. He’s left-handed, which gives the team options. I don’t love him, but I like him. But … the Yankees just boosted their payroll to nearly $300 million by signing Justin Upton and Zack Greinke. I wonder if …</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox acquire Brett Gardner from New York for Ben Revere and Wendell Rijo</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Nice. That was unexpected. This means I converted Matt Barnes and Wendell Rijo into Brett Gardner, which I’m pretty sure was the biggest leap out of reality for this team in the entire simulation. I mean … seriously?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">But that finalizes my starting lineup, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that it is top-3 in baseball, with a fair chance at No. 1.</span></p>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">     </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Mookie Betts, CF</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">     </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Chris Davis, RF</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">     </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Evan Longoria, 3B</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">     </span><span style="font-weight: 400">David Ortiz, DH</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">     </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Hanley Ramirez, 1B</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">     </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Dustin Pedroia, 2B</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">     </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Brett Gardner, LF</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">     </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Xander Bogaerts, SS</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">     </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Blake Swihart, C</span></li>
</ol>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Time to fill out the roster with our depth choices and backups.</span></p>
<p><b>Red Sox sign Shane Victorino to a one-year, $2 million contract</b></p>
<p><b>Red Sox sign Ruben Tejada to a two-year, $4 million contract</b></p>
<p><b>Red Sox sign Jeff Francoeur and Rene Rivera to minor-league contracts</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">That should do it. Since Brock Holt is going to be the first backup for, in essence, every position but first base (love you, Travis Shaw), we had to include another infielder, and at least one outfielder. Tejada still has some upside, and can certainly handle short. Shane is as much a nostalgia piece as anything, but I know he can survive in Boston’s outfield. Could’ve used a right-handed hitter on the bench, though. That’s Francoeur’s role, even though he’s not very good. Rivera is catching depth, in case Hanigan or Swihart gets nicked up, plus he can teach framing.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">So that’s it. My tentative start-the-season 25-man roster is:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Catcher: Blake Swihart, Ryan Hanigan</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Infield: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Evan Longoria, Brock Holt, Ruben Tejada</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Outfield: Chris Davis, Mookie Betts, Brett Gardner, Shane Victorino</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Designated Hitter: David Ortiz</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Starting Pitchers: Jose Fernandez, Carlos Carrasco, Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Relief Pitchers: Joakim Soria, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter, Shawn Armstrong, Danny Farquhar</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">… and that leaves Shaw as the first man up when there’s an injury in ST, with Jean Machi as the first pitcher into the bullpen.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Let’s review the plan.</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Trade for an ace</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Acquire an ace in free agency</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Fix the bullpen</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Upgrade in an outfield corner</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400">      </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Rid the team of Pablo Sandoval’s contract</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Mostly successful, I think. Trading for an ace, that definitely happened. Say what you want, but adding Davis (even if he’s awful defensively) and Gardner is a win over JBJ and Castillo. And Sandoval is long gone. The bullpen could still be a disaster – there’s no dominant arm like a Kimbrel or Chapman, but it looks to carry some upside and more stability over 2015.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The team certainly added impact, immediate talent, but they are also guys who should continue to be productive over the next three-to-five years. Since the free agent market next season looks so bad, striking now to acquire bigger names seemed like the right choice. And don’t forget … about 70% of top prospects don’t pan out, so even dealing ones as good as Moncada and Devers could end up a long-term win, as well as a short-term one.</span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">So. What do you think? Does this do Dave proud, or did I blow it by dealing some of the team’s best prospects?</span></strong></p>
<p><em>USA Today Sports Images/Steve Mitchell</em></p>
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		<title>Rebuilding the Red Sox: Let&#8217;s Trade for an Ace</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/28/rebuilding-the-red-sox-lets-trade-for-an-ace/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/28/rebuilding-the-red-sox-lets-trade-for-an-ace/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2015 13:10:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matthew Kory]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rebuilding the Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Carrasco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corey Kluber]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob DeGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Harvey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sonny Gray]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Strasburg]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2237</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Red Sox might not *need* an ace, but boy, one sure would be nice to have. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>New Red Sox team president Dave Dombrowski will undoubtedly look to upgrade Boston’s starting rotation this off-season. There are of course numerous ways to go about doing this and it’s unclear how much roster turnover Dombrowski will create. In other words, looking at the rotation as presently constructed to attempt to discern how much financial and roster space is available isn’t helpful because any or all of those players could be dealt before the Red Sox reconvene in Fort Myers next February.</p>
<p>It seems likely, though, that the Red Sox will look to acquire a pitcher who can start for them on opening day. That may be through free agency, but given ownership’s reticence to pass out $150 million to Jon Lester last off-season, it’s difficult, even with a new front office in place, to see them reversing course and offering David Price $200 million.</p>
<p>They might do it anyway, but the more likely option is through a trade. There are three primary reasons for that. The first is age. The Red Sox can get a younger starter in trade than they can acquire on the free-agent market. The second is salary. The Red Sox will have to pay Price $30 million a year or some such figure while Sonny Gray, to pull a name from a hat, will make the league minimum. The third is the Red Sox minor league system, which is chock full of talent, so it makes sense to use some of that talent to upgrade the major league roster more quickly and efficiently (i.e. pack more talent into one roster spot) than the system could do on its own.</p>
<p>Who might the team look to acquire? Well, that’s the question, isn’t it. That will depend on who teams make available, but the Red Sox have quite the minor league system. If they’re willing to make most if not all of those players available, many options will be on the table. Here are six of the most intriguing pitchers the Red Sox could acquire through a trade this off-season to head their rotation:</p>
<p><strong>Corey Kluber</strong></p>
<p>Kluber is the reigning AL Cy Young winner and though he won’t repeat this season, he’s still had a fantastic year despite a mostly luck-dependent bad start. Kluber has been worth just over five wins this season by DRA-based WARP, which puts him behind Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray, and ahead of every other pitcher in baseball. He’s fantastic. So why would the Indians look to trade a cost-controlled (he has four years and $35.5 million left on his extension after this season) 29-year-old ace pitcher? Two reasons they might: their farm system is lousy and their major league roster is lousy, too.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=406623383&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>It’s unclear what Cleveland’s plan is, but it seems unlikely they’ll be expected to contend in a packed AL Central in 2016 or even 2017. That doesn’t necessitate dealing Kluber, of course. He’s signed through 2021 if all his options are exercised, but doing so could speed up the rebuilding process considerably. Dealing Kluber would ignite a bidding war that could help build the next great Indians team, a bidding war the Red Sox could potentially win with the strength and depth of their farm system. This isn’t the most likely outcome, but then no one guy is likely. Kluber would be a great addition (obviously) and his salary would allow the Red Sox to supplement the rotation though free agency as well if they so desired.</p>
<p><strong>Carlos Carrasco</strong></p>
<p>This is the other possibility from Cleveland. Rumor has it the Indians already shopped Carrasco at the trade deadline, but he’s now on the DL with a shoulder issue, which makes a deal difficult until he can get back on the mound again. Still, Carrasco is quite good when he’s healthy. After struggling for years after joining the Indians from Philadelphia in the Cliff Lee trade, the light finally came on for Carrasco last season. His strikeouts jumped from below average to well above and he cut his walks allowed in half. Then he proved he’s not a flash in the pan by repeating it this season. Like Kluber, Carrasco is on an inexpensive (relatively) contract that will pay him $14.5 million over the next two seasons with $9 million and $9.5 million option years in 2019 and 2020, respectively. On a per-inning basis Carrasco is similar to Kluber. The difference is Carrasco has thrown 292 innings over the last two seasons and is now on the DL while Kluber has thrown 430 and is still healthy and going.</p>
<p><strong>Jacob deGrom/Matt Harvey</strong></p>
<p>This would make a whole lot more sense if the Mets weren’t about to win the NL East, which apparently they are. Even so, the Mets have as much young pitching as any team does but don&#8217;t have much in the way of the young hitting. A deal for one of these pitchers would likely require someone currently able to play at the major league level, so while you might consider Rafael Devers, etc, etc, etc, for Kluber, a deal for deGrom or Harvey would start with a guy like Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts (I refuse to get into specific packages here or who would have to throw in extra players). deGrom is already 27 and hasn’t been as good as Carrasco or Kluber, while Harvey is a year younger and has managed to almost replicate his incredible six win 2014 season this year with one exception: home runs have been more of an issue. Also, Harvey is coming off of Tommy John surgery.</p>
<p><strong>Sonny Gray</strong></p>
<p>The constant struggle the Oakland A’s face is how to keep the team competitive while constantly rebuilding all on a slim payroll. Thus, good players put in their time building their trade value in Oakland and then are dealt for, Josh Donaldson aside, younger cheaper, players. Although not the strikeout threat that any of the above starters presents, Sonny Gray is younger (he’ll be 26 next year) and is as fantastic. He’s a ground ball guy so he could presumably get by in Fenway just fine without striking out the larger number of hitters that the above pitchers do.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=325467583&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>As to why the A’s would deal Gray even though he’s still silly cheap and is one of the better pitchers in baseball? Well, they dealt Josh Donaldson! But seriously, they may not. I’m guessing it would depend on the nature of the package coming back and the state of the A’s going forward. Oakland would likely want a combination of major league talent and minor league talent in return. Who knows if he’ll move, but given the A’s struggles this season it wouldn’t be a surprise to hear his name batted around at the GM meetings.</p>
<p><strong>Stephen Strasburg</strong></p>
<p>There are others besides the guys listed above. Chris Sale and Tyson Ross for example, but no pitcher in baseball combines the raw stuff with results while retaining upside like Stephen Strasburg. What’s more, if the Nationals continue their crash and burn season, even though Strasburg has turned things around, the Nationals might look to make some deals and shake up the clubhouse.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=411094783&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>What’s more more, Strasburg is about to get expensive. He’s making $7.4 million in his second year of arbitration this season and will be a free agent after next season. He’s a Scott Boras client so an extension, especially this close to free agency, is unlikely. As such, he’d be a one-year addition for Boston which would limit their risk and and limit the cost. It’s still Strasburg so the cost would likely be high, but less than any of the above guys due to the number of seasons of player control remaining.</p>
<p>Should be a fun off-season, huh?</p>
<p><em>Photo by Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Read Sox: Larry Lucchino Out, Ryan Cook In</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/05/read-sox-larry-lucchino-out-ryan-cook-in/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/05/read-sox-larry-lucchino-out-ryan-cook-in/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Aug 2015 12:00:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Canelas]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Read Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Carrasco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob DeGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Larry Lucchino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Porcello]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Cook]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sonny Gray]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The times, they are a-changing. Hopefully that means the pitching staff is, too. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome back to Read Sox. This week we look at Larry Lucchino and the Red Sox’s future without him, the ongoing search for an ace and – wait for it –  Hanley Ramirez’s desire to remain in left field next season.</p>
<p><b>Going Deep</b></p>
<p>With meaningful games out of the question and a quiet trade deadline over, the biggest Red Sox story of the weekend was the news that Larry Lucchino is <a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/08/larry_lucchino_to_depart_in_red_sox_shakeup">stepping down as team president</a> at the end of the season. The news wasn’t much of a surprise given the rumors during spring training, but it’s certainly significant. Lucchino was part of John Henry’s original group that purchased the team in 2002, and played an integral role in the three World Series championships since. He’s had a say in a number of roster moves that were made in that time. He was also the driving force in the many renovations made throughout Fenway Park. However, as Lucchino mentioned in his <a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/08/02/larry-lucchino-i-believe-the-end-of-this-year-is-a-good-time-for-this-change/">statement</a> Sunday, it was time for a change. The Sox are on their way to a last-place finish for the third time in the last four years and reports suggest Lucchino had been less involved in the organization. Lucchino will be succeeded by Sam Kennedy, who, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes, will be <a href="http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2015/08/03/why-picking-players-wont-be-new-red-sox-presi">more invested in the business side of the organization and less involved in baseball operations</a>.The <i>Boston Herald</i>’s Michael Silverman writes that this move is j<a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/08/silverman_larry_lucchino_move_just_first_step_for_red_sox">ust the beginning of a slew of changes</a> that could take place between now and Opening Day. Two changes Silverman doesn’t expect to be made are at manager and general manager, despite the notable failures of both John Farrell and Ben Cherington over the last two seasons.</p>
<p>The biggest shakeup that should take place for the Red Sox this offseason is in the starting rotation. Their pitching struggles are no secret to anyone who follows baseball. Boston owns the fourth-worst team ERA in baseball at 4.52 and only a marginally better team DRA at 4.12. The Sox should feel lucky it’s not worse given the disasters that Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly and Justin Masterson have represented this season. The most obvious issue is the Red Sox’s lack of a true ace (or respectable No. 1 starter for that matter). With that in mind, Brian MacPherson of the <i>Providence Journal </i><a href="http://www.providencejournal.com/article/20150802/SPORTS/150809828/14009">tried to determine where the Sox can find that coveted ace</a>. Possible trade targets MacPherson suggested were Carlos Carrasco, Jacob DeGrom and Sonny Gray. All three starters are still young and in many ways up-and-coming, but all three are also putting up ace-quality numbers, ranking in the top 15 in FIP. DeGrom and Gray are both in the top 10 in baseball in DRA. Acquiring any of those three seems like a longshot, but nonetheless any of those moves would requiring parting ways with top-tier prospects. The Sox could also pursue free agents to-be such as Johnny Cueto, David Price, Jeff Samardzija and Jordan Zimmermann. But if the Jon Lester negotiations taught us anything it’s that we shouldn’t expect them to spend top-dollar and award long-term deals to proven No. 1’s.</p>
<p><b>Quick Hits</b></p>
<p>Watching a last-place team isn’t fun. Yet for some reason we do it anyways. Owning the worst record in the American League does have its benefits, however. As Alex Speier of <i>The Boston Globe </i>points out, that distinction would <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/08/03/having-worst-record-could-benefit-red-sox/146c8XImcXw8smTck07sFI/story.html">give the Sox first dibs at claiming players off waivers</a>. That could put Boston in position to make a push for that quality starter it desperately needs.</p>
<p>If you were hoping Hanley Ramirez would never play left field again after this season, you may be disappointed once you read this. Despite ranking statistically as the worst left fielder in baseball, Ramirez told MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith that he <a href="http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/08/boston_red_soxs_hanley_ramirez_2.html">wants to play there again next season</a>, especially over any spot in the infield. Ramirez explained that he’s been healthier this season as a left fielder than he had been over the past few years as a shortstop, giving him more reason to take his lumps in left for another year.</p>
<p>The trade deadline was far from eventful for the Red Sox. They did, however, acquire reliever Ryan Cook from Oakland. Sox fans may not care much for the deal, but Cook told the Boston media he’s <a href="http://nesn.com/2015/08/ryan-cook-excited-to-join-red-sox-ill-fit-in-wherever-they-need-me/">excited to join the team</a>. Whether or not Cook earns a spot in the Sox’s 2016 bullpen could hinge on how he performs down the stretch. The righty’s 10.38 ERA in four major league appearances this season is discouraging, but he does have a history of success, posting a 2.89 FIP in 73.1 innings in 2012 and a 2.74 FIP over 67.1 frames in 2013.</p>
<p>Now for some injury news. Rick Porcello is <a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/08/02/red-sox-notes-rick-porcello-heads-to-disabled-list-mookie-betts-making-progress/">heading to the disabled list</a> for the first time in his career with what is being called a right triceps strain. In a perfect world, the Sox won’t see him pitch for the rest of the season. Joining Porcello on the DL is Brian Johnson, who is <a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/08/04/red-sox-pitching-prospect-brian-johnson-placed-on-disabled-list-with-elbow-tightness/">dealing with elbow tightness</a>. Mookie Betts, on the other hand, is making progress. Betts, who was diagnosed with a concussion after toppling over the right-field wall and into the Red Sox bullpen last week, is <a href="http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/betts-concussion-improving-should-join-sox-detroit">expected to join the team in Detroit this weekend</a>.</p>
<p><b>Three Good Game Stories</b></p>
<p>Wade Miley was <a href="http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/miley-strong-sox-120-pitch-effort">strong on Sunday</a>, as CSNNE.com’s Jimmy Toscano writes, even if it wasn’t enough to earn a win over the Rays.</p>
<p>Travis Shaw hit his first two major league home runs and scored five times in the Sox’s win on Saturday. <a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/08/01/like-father-like-son-travis-shaw-hits-first-major-league-home-run-scores-5-runs-in-red-sox-win/">WEEI.com’s Ryan Hannable explains</a> how Shaw’s modest demeanor after the game comes from having seen his father, Jeff, play in the majors as well.</p>
<p>Many were surprised to see Mike Napoli still in Boston after Friday’s trade deadline passed. But, as the <i>Boston Herald</i>’s Jason Mastrodonato writes, Napoli <a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/07/mike_napoli_leads_red_sox_to_win_after_deadline_passes">led the Sox to a comeback win</a> over the Rays that night.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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