Christian Vazquez. Blake Swihart. Christian Vazquez. Blake Swihart. Back and forth the discussions have gone about which player will emerge as the Red Sox’s primary catcher. You know the talking points: Vazquez is an elite defender but offers next to nothing on offense, whereas Swihart is a considerable, athletic threat on offense, but is still a project on defense. Swihart and his offense got the nod as the 2016 Opening Day starter, but after only two weeks of mediocre hitting and a struggling pitching staff he was sent to Triple-A – and asked to get reps in left field! As such, the primary catching job was there for the taking. Vazquez was given the first crack at taking it, but his near-automatic-out presence in the lineup made it too difficult to justify playing him everyday, despite his top-rate defense. This gave Sandy Leon an opportunity. He came up, hit ~.900 for a month or three, and secured the starting job for himself. As such, Vazquez was relegated to backup duty, which is the role he is slated for in 2017.

What Went Right in 2016

First and foremost, Vazquez getting called upon quickly after Blake Swihart faltered at the start of the season was a positive development for two reasons. First, it is important to remember that Vazquez had missed the 2015 season following Tommy John surgery – a factor that likely contributed to his not being assigned to the major league club out of spring training – so this early-season call-up meant the team was confident that he was healthy enough to take on the lion’s share of the major league catching duties. That is not insignificant. Second, it was a clear vote of confidence in the skill set that Vazquez offers. At the time of his demotion, Swihart was hitting .278/.391/.278. That slugging percentage is ugly, but the on-base percentage is glorious. Neither were likely to continue at those levels, as that slashline is based on just 23 plate appearances, but already the team decided that getting better defense behind the plate was more valuable. There was basically no chance that Vazquez was ever going to match what Swihart did offensively even while Swihart was “struggling.” But the team was seemingly not worried about that, which I suppose was fair given the rest of the lineup, and opted for the defensive stalwart.

After getting called up, Vazquez was who we thought he was. His offense was awful – more on that in a section below – and his defense, the big, bold, line on his resume, was great. It was not as excellent as it was in 2014, his rookie season, but it was still 15th best among guys with at least 3,000 framing chances. Single-season defensive numbers should be interpreted with caution, but it is worth noting that almost all of Vazquez’s numbers declined from 2014, which may be troubling. The halving of his framing runs was probably not as much about him as it was about the rest of the league focusing on framing more, which ultimately makes it harder to be a standout framer. If the average gets higher, it is harder to remain well-above the average. However, the decline of Vazquez’s throwing-related numbers is more readily tied to him and not league-wide Moneyballish tactics. His elbow injury may have cost him an mph or two, which is enough for would-be-basestealers to nab an extra bag or seven over the course of the season. The history of catchers returning from Tommy John surgery is not good, but hopefully Vazquez can deviate from that trend. All told, and despite my nitpicking here, Vazquez’s defense was great in 2016 and remains the tool that will keep him in the major leagues.

What Went Wrong in 2016

His offense was basically unplayable. Even considering all the nice stuff I said above about Vazquez’s defense and the team opting for defense over offense, they were eventually forced to send Vazquez back to Pawtucket to work on his hitting. We know that Vazquez’s offensive production is the factor that will limit his role on this or any other team, but even with that context in mind his 2016 was alarming. He posted an abysmal .198 TAv, which was tied for sixth worst in baseball (among players who were given at least 175 plate appearances). Almost everything was worse in 2016 than it was in 2014. He struck out more and walked less, which meant he got on-base less often. He did hit for more power, but a .308 slugging percentage (.081 isolated power) is nothing to write home about.

Vazquez being so terrible at the plate did make his lone 2016 home run, a Scotty-Smalls-eyes-closed-catch-like moment, all the better:

That was really great, but doesn’t account for all the lousy trips to the plate he made last year. Simply put, Vazquez needs to hit better if he is going to be the team’s starting catcher; maybe even if he wants to be the backup. Nobody is asking him to fill David Ortiz’s shoes, but producing a TAv in the .230-.250 range – as it was in 2014 – will work just fine.

Outlook for 2017

Vazquez’s 2017 will, like the start of his 2016, involve a competition with Blake Swihart for the backup catcher role with the major league club. Sandy Leon’s torrid three month stretch last season has seemingly earned him the starter’s role. At this point, I think that Vazquez has the inside track to the backup job, as his defense is already major league ready, and the team will almost certainly want Swihart to get more work at the Triple-A level; he missed the majority of last season and it really seems like Dave Dombrowski is not confident in Swihart as an everyday catcher. So I expect the team to break camp with Leon/Vazquez as the catching duo. If Leon hits more like he did in September/October than he did in June through August, then Vazquez could see more time than is typical for a backup, and maybe even take over the starting role. But if Swihart gets his defense in order and hits like he is expected, Vazquez’s reign as the starter in Boston will be short-lived. He will be running the Pawtucket pitching staff, or part of another one of Dave Dombrowski’s multi-player trades.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

The acquisition of Ryan Hanigan last offseason, in exchange for oft-heralded post-prospect Will Middlebrooks, went largely unhyped. And rightfully so. Among players like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, Hanigan is not really the player who stands out. But it was a strong addition to the roster by then Red Sox GM Ben Cherington. Christian Vazquez was slated to be the everyday catcher while Hanigan would serve as a solid backup and veteran presence for the young starter. Then, in April, it was announced that Vazquez needed Tommy John Surgery and the 35-year old Hanigan was thrust into the starting role.

Like Vazquez, Hanigan is considered a first-rate defensive catcher (5.2 and 5.9 FRAA in 2013 and 2014, respectively) who does not provide a lot with the bat (career .257 TAv) but does get on-base (career OBP .352). After getting the starting nod throughout April, his season was altered when a foul-tip, hit-by-pitch oddball play sent a ball into his exposed throwing hand, fracturing it and sending him to the disabled list for the next month. That injury, coupled with the abysmal Red Sox performance, afforded Blake Swihart the opportunity to start in the big leagues. His general success, and the Red Sox place in the standings, kept him in the lineup, pushing Hanigan back to a backup role. Hanigan ended up playing in 54 games, getting 201 plate appearances, in which he was essentially replacement level (0.4 WARP). The forced advancement and success of Swihart – in Hanigan’s absence – and expected return of Christian Vazquez at some point midseason leave Hanigan’s place with the team in 2016 somewhat unclear. He will be on the roster to start the season given the uncertainties about Vazquez’s condition upon return, but, depending on the progress of the young catchers, Hanigan could find himself playing for somebody else before the end of the year.

What Went Right in 2015

Even though his playing time was limited by injury and the presence of a top prospect, Hanigan did the things he usually does well, well. Defensively, according to the suite of BP advanced catching statistics, Hanigan was an above average pitch framer, average blocker, and average run-game controller. Even after accounting for the reduced playing time his numbers were down relative to previous seasons – he has three 20+ run framing seasons on the books – but he was still productive relative to his backstop colleagues across the league. While there were suggestions that he had a positive effect on the starting pitching staff relative to his catcher teammates (Swihart, Sandy Leon), the basic numbers don’t really bear that out:

Those numbers are sad regardless of who was behind the plate. Hanigan defended his position well in 2015, but things are slipping as he ages.

On offense, Hanigan did Hanigan things. He worked plate appearances: among the players who stepped into the batter’s box at least 200 times for the Red Sox last season he had the second highest average of pitches seen per appearance, trailing some guy named Mike Napoli. Hanigan’s mark, 4.21, was actually 19^th best in baseball. This sort of patience allowed him to work walks at an above average rate (10.00 BB%) and wait for good pitches to hit. Despite having 304 fewer plate appearances, Hanigan had only five fewer walks than Pablo Sandoval last year. Granted Pablo is an extreme free swinger, but that difference is remarkable. Getting on base is Hanigan’s game and we saw it in 2015. His OBP was higher than average, coming primarily via the walk with the occasional punch of a single mixed in for good measure.

What Went Wrong in 2015

It is difficult to isolate what went wrong for Hanigan last season. The fractured hand was a rough deal, but in the end he was close to playing in as many games as was expected and performed remarkably close to expectations. For example, PECOTA’s pre-season projection for him was as a backup catcher (157 PA) with a .247/.340/.321 slashline (.255 TAv) and average defense, all packaged together for 0.4 WARP. That is almost exactly what he did: 201 PA, .247/.337/.328 (.242 TAv), 0.7 FRAA, 0.4 WARP. Nice job PECOTA! The injury (and related Swihart-ian circumstances) may have cost him an eventual starting role, but perhaps it ensured that he avoided wearing down under the increased workload related with being the primary catcher, ultimately leading to him performing worse than he did. Some good may have come with the bad.

I suppose we should talk about the .328 slugging percentage. While Hanigan’s SLG was in line with his projection, among fellas with at least 200 PA it was the lowest mark on the Red Sox, 36^th worst in the game, and just over half of the Bryce Harper show in 2015 (.649). Hanigan was one of only 11 players in baseball with at least 200 PA to post a slugging percentage lower than their on-base percentage; Hanigan’s difference of .009 was the ninth largest. This is something that he has done in four other major league seasons. As noted, Hanigan’s offensive game is OBP, not slugging. He is a patient, high-contact guy, but the contact is often lacking. It is possible that the hand injury exacerbated things in 2015, but his slugging percentage last year was not all that different from his 2012-2014 seasons. In the end he cranked out 10 extra base hits – eight doubles and two home runs – which included this beauty over the monster seats off reigning American League Cy Young winner Corey Kluber:

I suppose, realistically, the thing that went most wrong for Hanigan in 2015 was that his injury allowed Swihart an opportunity to play everyday in Boston, which served to hasten Swihart’s timetable for being a permanent major league contributor and potentially push Hanigan out of town.

Outlook for 2016

Hanigan is a veteran player from whom we more or less know what we are going to get: above average defense and good on-base skills. He will likely begin the season in a backup role to Swihart. As alluded to throughout this recap of his season, Hanigan’s role with the Red Sox going forward is most likely out of his hands. It depends on the development of Blake Swihart and Christian Vazquez, or a trade involving one of the three of them. Hanigan is a serviceable contributor and experienced presence on the roster serving as necessary insurance while Vazquez works his way back to Boston. Unfortunately, Hanigan’s age and contract status ($3.7M for 2016, $3.75M club option for 2017) make him the likely odd man out of the bunch, unless Red Sox boss Dave Dombrowski is overwhelmed by an offer for one of the kids.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

The Red Sox front office has a lot of work to do this offseason to mould the roster into a collection of talent that will win more often than it loses. According to Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com (and really anyone else who attended last week’s press conference), Dave Dombrowski is focused on improving the pitching staff. The best way to go about doing so remains unclear. Sign free agents? Trade prospects/younger players? While the Red Sox tend to have one of the highest payrolls in the game, it seems clear that not all of the changes to the roster are going to come through free-agency. Signing a free agent like David Price will keep all those precious, budding prospects in the system, but it does not come without other risks. Alex Speier reminds us that big spending does not always correspond to winning; in fact the correlation between payroll and winning is at a low point. Trading a package of prospects/younger players (e.g., Rafael Devers, Anderson Espinoza, Jackie Bradley Jr., Blake Swihart) to get a frontline starter like Sonny Gray seems like a reasonable approach. But, as you know, starting pitching is not the only thing that needs considering, Tim Britton, of the Providence Journal, explores free agent and trade options for fixing the bullpen. In the end, the way to best improve the club’s pitching staff is not likely to be to go all-in on path A (free agents) or path B (trades). Taking a measured approach and integrating the two sounds like the right path.

Seven of the ten playoff teams this year finished in the top-12 for home run totals this season. The Pirates, Royals, and Cardinals are the only three teams that finished lower (23rd, 24th, and 25th, respectively). The phrase Joe Sheehan has been championing this postseason appears to be correct: “ball go far, team go far.” The Red Sox finished 15^th in home runs last season with 161, ten behind the 12th place Cubs. To some extent the Sox were a team that had difficulty hitting for power; their isolated slugging of .149 was a tick below league average (.150), ranking 17th in the game. These numbers prompted Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe to wonder who will generate power for the Red Sox in 2016. Better seasons from Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval will ameliorate some of the power problem, but might the front office need to acquire someone who can hit some bombs? Someone like free agent first baseman Chris Davis? Maybe, but that move necessitates trading Hanley Ramirez, or pressing reset on the left field experiment, which seems less than ideal. For what it is worth Dombrowski has said that he is comfortable with the team’s power, and likes that they did not strike out a lot (18.4 K% was fourth lowest in baseball). Power is not the only issue the offense had last season, though. Another concern, pointed out by Alex Speier in his 108 Stitches newsletter, is that the offense was only good at Fenway:

Home: .290/.349/.451 (.160 ISO; 80 HR)

Away: .241/.302/.382 (.139 ISO; 81 HR)

It is true that overall Fenway is a hitter’s park, but not as dramatically as those numbers suggest. Perhaps assuming the offense is a clear strength is not entirely correct. While they did score a lot of runs last year, there are deficiencies to consider. Regardless, given Dombrowski’s comments in Cafardo’s article and his stated priority of improving the pitching, it seems doubtful that the team will make a major acquisition on the offensive side of the ball.

Quick Hits

The catcher position was a bit of an on-the-fly adventure for the Red Sox in 2015. Peter Abraham writes that the Red Sox will benefit from the depth they have at the position, as Christian Vazquez will resume his place as the starter, and Blake Swihart, Ryan Hanigan and Sandy Leon can fill in as backups. Alternatively, Swihart can be used as a trade chip to improve other areas of the team, like the rotation. Ian Browne of MLB.com had similar thoughts on the Red Sox’s options at catcher.

One of the fun parts of the 2015 season was watching the Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo outfield. But, as good as they looked, Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com reminds us that starting jobs are not yet guaranteed for two of these three players, and that the Red Sox will look to add outfield depth to their roster. It will be difficult but Mastrodonato suggests that trading the suddenly inept Allen Craig could be part of this venture, or as part of a move aimed at repairing another aspect of the team, like, say, the bullpen.

Dustin Pedroia is revered in Boston for his scrappy, always-play-hard, can-do attitude. But in recent seasons this approach has contributed to injury and the desire to rush rehab efforts in order to get back on the field. Ironically, doing so can lead to more time on the disabled list, or diminished performance upon return. Pedroia talked to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com about the hamstring injury he suffered this past season, how his returning to play too early was costly and his regret for not allowing himself more time to heal.

I think that any time Pedro Martinez reflects on his time in Boston it is a must-read (or listen, or watch). The latest is Pedro talking with Chad Finn of Boston.com about his six-inning, no-hit relief performance in Game 5 of the 1999 American League Division Series (ALDS) against the vaunted offense of the Cleveland Indians. Pedro was pitching hurt that day. Last year, he told Jonah Keri of Grantland that his relief-outing in the 1999 ALDS permanently damaged his arm.

How about another article about a former-Red Sox great? Jim Litke of the Associated Press writes about Manny Ramirez’s current role as a coach (of some sort) with the Chicago Cubs. Manny is being Manny, primarily helping the younger, hispanic players on the club, but is also around to talk hitting with anyone who will listen.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images