Losing is not fun, and losing on Opening Day is probably less fun than normal everyday losing, the kind the baseball season gradually inoculates you against. But a loss on that first day is extra tough because you have no context. You wait months for real baseball to come, it finally arrives, the Red Sox look to be cruising to a win, everything is as it should be, and then some relief pitcher forgets where the strike zone is and/or takes an actual poop directly on the pitching rubber, and suddenly everything we’ve waited all winter for is ruined and bad.

That’s what it feels like to lose on Opening Day. But what does it actually mean to lose on Opening Day? That’s probably a more relevant question, and I’m sure you are currently aiming that bowling ball at that new flat-screen TV in a quest for relevance and not in any way out of unbridled fury at mediocre relief pitching. So let’s try, desperately try, to shoot some logic up into this piece before you personally have to goose the local electronics store’s monthly earnings. As mentioned above, the 2004 Red Sox also lost on Opening Day, and in as gut-tearing a manner as a team can, too. They went on to do pretty well when things came down to it, so you have to figure that gut tear must have healed sometime before they came back from down three games in the ALCS to absolutely bury the Yankees. The 2007 Red Sox lost on Opening Day as well, and they didn’t just lose, they got smoked. Curt Schilling gave up five runs to the Kansas City Royals (this was before the Royals were good, which is a nice way of saying those Royals were bad), and the Red Sox offense never got out of Spring Training mode. All in all, they lost 7-1, about as ignoble a beginning to a World Series winning campaign as one can conjure up. Completing the trifecta, the 2013 Red Sox won on Opening Day. Jon Lester out-dueled C.C. Sabathia and the Sox beat the Yankees in New York, 8-2.

So, as it turns out, you can win the World Series whether you win or lose on Opening Day. But as that’s only three teams, it hardly constitutes immutable proof. So I went back through the 2000 season and looked at how every eventual World Series winning team since then did on Opening Day. The data says eventual World Series winning teams since and including the 2000 season have a 10-8 record on opening day. That’s a .555 winning percentage which works out to a 90 win pace. That’s not all that great! 90 wins is a fine season but not often a World Series winning one. But, if you limit the sample further, to the 2002 season and going forward — which you wouldn’t do unless you had a point to make — you would find that the eventual World Series winners are 8-8 on opening day. 8-8! That sure makes a point!

What does all of this tell us? Not a darn thing, probably. The Red Sox, one of the best teams in baseball over the past two decades, are about as likely to win as they are to lose on any given day of the season. Good teams win and good teams lose is the point, and almost in equal amounts, which is why there are 162 games in a baseball season and not for any other reasons, nope, not at all.

So what does it mean to win on Opening Day? It means that for a day, you get to enjoy perfection. Baseball is back, spring is here, summer is soon to follow, and the baseball season lies ahead in all it’s dignified, spectacular, and orderly beauty. What does it mean to lose on Opening Day? It’s pretty much the same, but with a whole lot more swear words and, if the Red Sox bullpen has anything to say about it, a couple fewer working televisions.

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If you’ll permit me an indulgent paragraph, I’m leaving Baseball Prospectus after more than six years and I need to say thank you. It’s been a wild blast, one I never thought I’d get to do while reading Joe Sheehan, Steven Goldman, Nate Silver, and Christina Kahrl blow my mind on a daily basis while back in school. I’ve written more articles than I can count — 35 pages worth if you author search me. My first official piece as a BP author was about what happens when you type “poop” into the Baseball Reference search engine. After that, I wrote a weekly column, years and years worth of the Hit List (eternal thanks to the great Jay Jaffe), I’ve covered the playoffs, done Transaction Analyses, and I’ve been on board here at BP Boston since its inception. All of it has been a tremendous honor of which I’m entirely unworthy, and so I owe undying thanks to Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller for giving me the opportunity to write at the feet of those and so many other giants. Thanks also go to Ben Carsley and Brett Cowett for having me here at BP Boston. A writer is nothing if there is nobody to read their work, and so I’d be grandly remiss if I didn’t thank you, the reader. Whether you’ve been reading me for years, or whether this is my first piece of yours, thank you.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

I’m going by the rotations as listed on Roster Resource, which of course may change during spring training. As for the order, I’ve organized them by their WARP projections.

Rotations

Red Sox:

1. Chris Sale (6.1)
2. David Price (2.1)
3. Drew Pomeranz (2.1)
4. Rick Porcello (1.2)
5. Eduardo Rodriguez (1.2)

(12.7 total WARP)

versus

Yankees:

1. Luis Severino (4.1)
2. Sonny Gray (2.5)
3. Masahiro Tanaka (2.4)
4. Jordan Montgomery (1.0)
5. CC Sabathia (0.6)

(10.6 total WARP)

Not unlike the two team’s lineups, their rotations aren’t too far apart in overall talent. Perhaps the Red Sox enjoy a bit more at the top of the rotation, whereas the Yankees have more overall depth. But the end result is roughly the same, as you can see from their respective WARP totals.

Is Luis Severino as good as Chris Sale? No, probably not, but he’s not wholly far off. Sale is the best player of either group and the one who the Red Sox hope can put them over the top, both during the regular season and in the playoffs. Severino has the potential to be that guy for the Yankees. Still, the advantage is with Sale.

The thing about PECOTA and really all projection systems is its innate pessimism. It’s not really even pessimism though because players get hurt all the time and age gets everyone at some point and then there’s the guys who just have bad seasons because of who knows what. That all said, it’s not difficult to expect more than PECOTA projects from a few guys on each team, and not coincidentally the two I’d expect more from are the same guys I’d point to when discussing the most pivotal pitchers of the rotation. That would be Price for the Red Sox and Gray for the Yankees. Both have been top pitchers before, as recently as 2016. In Gray’s four seasons he’s been above 4 WARP in three of them including last season, so his 2.5 projection seems a tad short. But there it is just the same.

Price likely has a similar issue to Gray, namely injuries. Price spent a significant number of days on the DL last season, the first time he did that in his career. The result was a one-win season after averaging six wins per over the three seasons before that. Still, the Red Sox are depending on Price this season in a way that I’m not sure fans have fully grasped. If Price gives the team 75 innings of 4.50 run ball and then exits stage left, the Red Sox are going to need a lot of quality innings from Steven Wright and/or Brian Johnson. To paraphrase the words of a former Yankee manager, that’s not what you want.

But if Price is healthy, he’s Boston’s second ace, and he changes the completion of the team completely. The same thing could be said for Gray, whose reputation took a hit during an injured and ineffective 2016 season. Peak Gray probably isn’t the equal of peak Price, though it seems that Gray reaching his previous heights is the more likely possibility of the two (though as of this writing both claim to be fully healthy).

Past the top two guys, the Yankees need Tanaka’s arm to remain attached to his shoulder, possibly a difficult ask considering his previous medical history. If he’s healthy though, a caveat that should probably be applied to all pitchers, Tanaka offers what any team would look for in a third starter: namely quality and dependability. The Red Sox are more on the first of those attributes and less on the second with their third starters (yes, two) in Pomeranz and Porcello. Porcello can’t be as bad as he was last season (can he?), but he’s probably not going to win another Cy Young either. As such, sure, two wins seems perfectly adequate, even if you maybe would hope for more given his $20 million salary. Pomeranz is hitting his stride as a starter after a late start to his career, but he’s always been on the fragile side. Together they’re probably in the five-win range, which is what the Yankees will likely get out of the combination of Gray and Tanaka.

The back end of the Yankees rotation is C.C. Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery, both of who had stronger seasons in 2017 than you’d have guessed given their respective ages and, in Sabathia’s case, everything else about him. And yet here he is again. Note that PECOTA is as unimpressed with him as you are. The Red Sox back end features the aforementioned Wright and Johnson unless, and this is the key, Eduardo Rodriguez gets healthy. Say what you will about Montgomery, but the Yankees don’t have a pitcher of Rodriguez’s quality in the back half of their rotation. If Rodriguez comes back healthy with no knee troubles, he gives the Sox rotation depth few teams can match.

If there is one place where New York has a step on Boston, it’s in previous injuries. Why are they important? A wise person once said the greatest predictor of future pitcher injuries is past pitcher injuries. With that as a background, the Red Sox are at greater risk with Price, Rodriguez, and deeper down, Wright and Johnson all having missed significant time in recent seasons. Only Gray fits that description with the Yankees (though Sabathia has pitched through injuries, he’s not particularly injury prone).

Bullpens

Predicting what will happen with bullpens is the greatest of impossibilities, like jumping across the country using only trampolines, or drinking an entire bottle of Gatorade without your tongue jumping from your mouth and running screaming down the street. The Red Sox have one of the two or three best relievers in baseball in Craig Kimbrel. That’s a good start. After that, they could have a very deep pen with Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg splitting eighth inning duties and Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly covering the sixth and seventh. Or all those guys could spontaneously explode like Spinal Tap drummers.

Like the rotations, the Red Sox have that one top guy, but the Yankees have quality and more depth in their pen. And yet, Aroldis Chapman wasn’t so hot last season, and Dellin Betances wasn’t either. Both were fine overall, and very good at times, but showed real moments of shakiness. Tommy Kahnle was less than spectacular after putting up an amazing first half in Chicago, and David Robertson was good, but not amazing either. Still, those guys have track records of (mostly) excellence, so few are likely to flame out. It could easily turn into the Craig Kimbrel And That’s It Show in Boston, whereas the Yankees have too much depth and not enough Craig Kimbrel for that to occur to them.

Where things stand now, the Red Sox have a slight advantage in the rotation, but when you factor in the bullpens, that lead dwindles. Like their offenses, and like the teams of 2003 and 2004, picking which one is truly better is likely a fool’s errand (thus these articles). We never know what will happen over the course of a baseball season, but often times we kinda know, right? Here I legitimately have no idea. Except to say this: even after 162 games it’ll probably be quite close.

Also, the Houston Astros are better than both teams.

Photo by Noah K. Murray — USA TODAY Sports

It’s because you get to read another edition of Weekend Preview.

The Red Sox bounced back from a pair of tough three-game sets on the road with a series win against the Blue Jays at home, highlighted by a Mookie Betts walkoff and a strong start from Rick Porcello. The Sox follow that up with a Round 2 against their nemesis, the New York Yankees. The good news: Clay Buchholz isn’t slated to pitch.

New York Yankees – Current Record: 13-9 – Projected Record: 82-80

The Yankees are a much different team than when the two sides met at Yankee Stadium three weeks ago. New York has won 10 of its last 13 games and has a +29 run differential in that span. The Yankees have a top 10 TAv (.274) and team ERA (3.23), although PECOTA projects them to finish with a -8 run differential the rest of the way.

Probables

Justin Masterson vs. CC Sabathia – Friday, 7:10 p.m.

This is far from a premier pitching matchup, but Sox fans have to like the way Justin Masterson has pitched lately compared to his counterpart, CC Sabathia. After a disastrous outing against the Nationals on April 14, the right-hander responded with a pair of strong outings against the Orioles, allowing four combined runs over 12 innings. Masterson so far has been right in line with preseason projections, or perhaps slightly better in some categories. He’s third amongst Red Sox starters with a .299 BABIP, and his 3.54 FIP and 7.94 strikeouts per nine innings is right around his career averages.

Speaking of averages, Sabathia is probably missing the days he neared his own career numbers. In a matter of two years, the lefty has gone from being the Yankees’ ace to their worst starter. Sabathia has lost all four of his starts this season, with his worst coming last Saturday when he gave up seven runs on nine hits – and three home runs – over five innings in a loss to the Mets. He has a 5.96 ERA, a 4.04 FIP and is projected to finish with some of the worst numbers of his career.

Wade Miley vs. Nathan Eovaldi – Saturday, 1:35 p.m.

At this rate, it’s anybody’s guess which Wade Miley will show up on Saturday. Will it be the one who pitched 5.2 shutout innings in a three-hitter against the Rays? Or will it be the one who imploded against the Orioles on Sunday, giving up seven runs over 2.1 innings? One thing that’s for certain is the Sox need Miley to go deeper into games. For someone who has pitched over 200 innings the last two years, the fact that he’s yet to get out of the sixth inning, even in his good starts, is concerning. Miley is projected to finish with 168 innings pitched, which would mark a career low by almost 30 innings.

Eovaldi is coming off his worst outing of the young season after surrendering four runs on seven hits over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Sunday. Aside from Sunday’s start, the righty has been reliable for the Yankees this season, posting a 3.32 FIP through four starts. Eovaldi has given up seven or more hits in each of his starts this season, but is leaving runners on base at a 79 percent rate.

Joe Kelly vs. Adam Warren – Sunday, 8 p.m.

After a hot start to the season, Joe Kelly has come back to earth. He’s allowed five runs in each of his last two starts and hasn’t earned a win since his season debut against the Yankees in which dazzled over seven innings, giving up one run on one hit for the win at Yankee Stadium. One thing Kelly has done consistently well this season is strike batters out. He’s had seven strikeouts or more in three of his first four starts and is averaging 10.65 strikeouts per nine innings.

Adam Warren was strong in his last start, allowing one run on five hits against the Rays. However, as someone accustomed to throwing out of the bullpen, he’s also a guy who struggles to get deep into games. The righty’s tossed just 20.2 innings through four starts and is projected to pitch about 94 innings the rest of the way.

Opposing Lineup

As was noted in the preview of the two teams’ first meeting, the Yankees boast a ton of left-handed hitting. The Sox could see as many as eight lefties per game with this possible lineup over the weekend.

Jacoby Ellsbury – CF – L
Brett Gardner – LF – L
Alex Rodriguez – DH – R
Mark Teixeira – 1B – S
Brian McCann – C – L
Carlos Beltran – RF – S
Chase Headley – 3B – S
Stephen Drew – 2B – L
Didi Gregorius – SS – L

The Yankees have gotten a good mix of power between Mark Teixeira (eight home runs, .392 ISO) and Alex Rodriguez (five home runs, .275 ISO), and average from the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury (.377 BABIP) and Brett Gardner (.346 BABIP). Also, expect Chris Young to get in the lineup at some point during the series.

Stephen Drew, by the way, has four homers.

Recap

Here’s a simple breakdown of what I just wrote. Expect plenty of runs, some bad pitching and possibly the four-to-five-hour games you would normally expect from a Red Sox-Yankees series.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images