Top Play (WPA)

You’d think it would be from the dude with the gorgeous flow, but nope. It’s the error that started it all. The first time Sandy Leon hit a grounder to Chris Davis, a rally was killed. The second time, a rally was started. That miscue was worth .292 WPA, which beat out what Benintendi did next by 50 points. You could say this was redemption for Leon, but he really didn’t do much. Davis did all the heavy lifting here.

Bottom Play (WPA)

Wouldn’t you know it, it’s that double play Leon grounded into. Ubaldo Jimenez had started to be a little bit wild – missing pitches, fastballs getting away from him, pretty much the stuff that makes your stomach sink when you see your pitcher doing it. The ball was hit solidly, and if Davis was any closer to the line than that, that probably scores two, and keeps it from being a -.190 WPA play. Just some bad luck for Sandy in that one and a good play by Davis, that’s all.

Key Moment

You already know.

Remember back in 2008, when it seemed like the Tampa Bay Rays would capitalize and score on every mistake? That’s what the Red Sox are doing right now, and man, does it feel good to watch someone else on the receiving end of that.

Trends to Watch

1. Clay Buchholz’s $13.5M option is most likely going to be picked up. No way the Red Sox are going to let some team like the Pirates get him and turn him into a Cy Young contender. Neither DRA or FIP really like him, but good things happen when you stop allowing 1.9 HR per nine innings. Out of his last six starts (which includes this one), he’s allowed only one run in four of them. Zombie Clay is the best Clay.

2. We all love Sandy Leon, but man, his September has been abysmal. He’s slashing .237/.292/.288 this month, and there’s not a lot of reassuring things that could be said. It’s just BABIP regression, plain and simple. The hits aren’t falling in like they used to. This might be the end of Sandy Leon, Baseball Deity, but he’s probably earned himself a spot on this roster come 2017.

3. The Red Sox are really loving the hit-a-flashy-homer-in-a-big-situation play. You have Hanley Ramirez’s two timely blasts on Sunday, then Betts’ eighth homer at Camden Yards this season in Monday’s game, followed by Ortiz’s three-run shot on Tuesday, and finally Benintendi’s dinger yesterday. This is not me complaining – this is me in awe of how it’s just like clockwork to these guys.

Coming Next

The Red Sox go for a second straight sweep of a four-game series. The Red Sox will counter the Orioles’ Chris Tillman by sending out David Price, who has thrown 14 innings of three-run ball with zero walks and 13 strikeouts in his last two starts against Baltimore. Magic number: 6

Photo by Evan Habeeb/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Clay Buchholz was actually looking pretty solid until the sixth inning. It wasn’t his best start, granted, but he flashed the changeup and curveball that he needs to be successful. Then the sixth inning happened. It started with Chris Davis effortlessly crushing a ball off the wall in left field, a noteworthy achievement given the wind blasting toward right field. Of course, that was nothing compared to Mark Trumbo, who followed that up with a blast over everything in left (+.223) that tied the game up at four. The Orioles have some stupid power, you guys.

Bottom Play (WPA): Let me start this by saying Mike Wright is not a good pitcher. I don’t think that’s a controversial statement. He was solid last night, but the Red Sox had a chance to put him away in the fourth. The score was tied at two, and after two quick outs the bases became loaded with a single and two hit batsmen. Blake Swihart came to the plate with a chance to give Buchholz a much-needed cushion early in this game. Instead, he hit a routine grounder to Jonathan Schoop at second (-.086) and the inning was over without a run being scored. It was a rough night for Swihart, but we’ll get to that in a second.

Key Moment: Remember that Trumbo home run that ended up being the most important play in the game? It probably never should’ve happened. Earlier in that at bat, he popped a ball in foul territory in front of the Red Sox dugout. It looked like a routine play. The wind messed things up for fielders all night, but if we’re being honest with ourselves it should’ve been caught. Instead, Swihart misread it and it fell past his outstretched glove. Maybe Hanley Ramirez should’ve called him off, as he had a better read on it. He probably should have. But either way, that’s a ball Swihart should’ve had. Buchholz still shares plenty of the blame for allowing Trumbo to hit a ball 1200 yards, but the whole situation could’ve been avoided.

More Swihart Sadness: That’s probably enough sadness for Swihart in one game, but there’s one more play that gets added to this list. Not only did he account for the worst play in the game by WPA, but he also was the proud owner of the third-worst play. After that mess of a sixth inning, the Red Sox still only trailed by one run in the bottom half. Once again, Boston’s catcher found himself at the plate in a big situation, this time with Travis Shaw on third and two outs. A single would’ve tied the game, but instead he hit yet another routine ground ball to second base. People on the twittersphere were already wondering when Christian Vazquez would take the starting role behind the plate, which is obviously insane. However, there’s no denying it was a rough night for Swihart. He’ll likely get a much needed night off tonight with Joe Kelly taking the hill.

The Most Clay Buchholz Start Ever: Well, that’s probably not true since he left the mound healthy, but everything else about it was quintessential Buchholz. He started the outing with some shaky control, walking two of his first six opponents. Then, he settled down and started looking like a near-ace with both his changeup and his curveball working. At one point, he struck out four of eight batters he faced while allowing just one to reach base. Then, he was hurt by a bit of dumb luck, with JJ Hardy hooking a ball around Pesky’s Pole with as short of a home run as humanly possible*. Then, of course, he imploded in the sixth. Buchholz is still the shrug emoji personified.

*He did that twice, by the way. Baseball is dumb.

Failure in Middle Relief: The Red Sox’s bullpen was supposed to be a strength for this team in 2016, and for the most part it has been. Tonight, though, they were really feeling the absence of Carson Smith. Noe Ramirez came in after Buchholz, and while he only allowed one inherited run, that was because of big defensive plays from Mookie Betts and Travis Shaw. After him, Robbie Ross entered and promptly allowed three runs (plus one inherited runner from Ramirez) to score. Things will look better once Smith comes back, but Boston really needs one more arm to step up at some point this year.

David Ortiz Still Rules, Though: No matter what else happens this season, never lose sight of the fact that we still get to watch David Ortiz. The man is incredible. He hit another home run last night, his third of the year. He also hit an RBI double in his last at bat of the game. The man is hitting .346/.393/.846 on the season. Are we sure he has to retire?

Coming Next: The Red Sox and Orioles will finish their series tonight, with Boston trying to avoid the sweep and trying to inexplicably give Baltimore their first loss of the season. On the mound, it’ll be a matchup of enigmatic pitchers with sometimes-electric stuff and generally poor results with Joe Kelly facing off against Ubaldo Jimenez. First pitch will be at 7:00 Eastern.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

]]> http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/13/game-7-recap-baltimore-9-boston-5/feed/ 0 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/12/game-6-recap-orioles-9-red-sox-7/ http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/12/game-6-recap-orioles-9-red-sox-7/#comments Tue, 12 Apr 2016 12:01:51 +0000 http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4085 The Red Sox opened their 2016 home campaign against the 5-0 Baltimore Orioles with David Price on the hill, but, much like this year’s Celtics before them, failed to end a record season-opening winning streak (in this case, the Orioles’ now 6-0 start is best in team history) — but they sure did make it interesting.

Top play (WPA): One plate appearance after failing to successfully bunt on a 3-1 count, inflaming the potentially overcaffeinated parts of Red Sox Twitter, Jackie Bradley Jr. poked a strange soft liner down the left-field line that Mark Trumbo was unable to reach in time — Trumbo being unable to track down fly balls being a theme of the game — and the ball plunked the ground and bounded over a relatively high part of the left field fence for a ground-rule double. The ‘oopsie’ hit sent Brock Holt across the plate and Blake Swihart to third base, from where he would score on a Betts fielder’s choice (a play on which JBJ would be thrown out at third, earning him a rebuke from a visibly exasperated Torey Lovullo in the dugout, but let’s focus on the good parts — the bad parts are coming in the next sentence.)

Bottom play (WPA): Unsurprisingly, Chris Davis’ three-run homer off of Craig Kimbrel in a tied top of the ninth swayed the game pretty decisively in the Orioles’ favor. Davis murdered the ball, sending it out of center field with an exit velocity of 111 miles per hour, which is pretty good.

Chris Davis just crushed that ball, projected distance 426. Exit velocity of 111 MPH. Only 2 of his HRs were hit that hard last year.

— Daren Willman (@darenw) April 11, 2016

Key moment: With no outs, two men aboard and the team down two in the bottom of the ninth, David Ortiz grounded into a double play that was close enough at first for John Farrell to challenge the ruling, but it was upheld. In this writer’s opinion, it would have been better if Ortiz hit a walk-off home run in his final home opening day, but it was not to be. Maybe next year.

Trend to watch: Hanley Ramirez might be a good first baseman? A week into the grand experiment, he’s been scooping balls that are by no means gimmes and snapping throws like he’s been living at the cool corner his whole career. It would be an understatement to call it a resounding success so far, and at this point he has acquitted himself more or less perfectly, save for a couple of slow rotations on cutoff throws. It’ll play.

Eye on Papi: Big Papi’s daughter sang the national anthem, and he clearly didn’t know it was going to happen. It was as sweet as Ortiz is awesome, so it was pretty damn sweet.

Coming next: Red Sox No. 2 starter and chaos incarnate Clay Buchholz faces Orioles righty Mike Wright, of whom I had never heard before researching this sentence but according to the internet is 6’6”, which is pretty tall. For the almost painfully decrepit Baltimore rotation, I suppose they’ll take their jollies where they can get them. Outside of, you know, winning every game.

Photo by David Butler II/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

As we look forward to the 2016 season, it goes without saying that the majority of us expect certain players to bounce back from a terrible 2015 campaign. The Boston Globe‘s Alex Speier sees things differently, however, and questions the notion that Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval are locks to rebound.

Speier hits upon an interesting point here. As much as we’d like to assume the two infielders will return to form next season, it’s not terribly likely that both of them will. Hanley’s on the wrong side of 30, and injury-prone guys don’t usually stop being injury-prone over the course of one offseason or by switching positions to something a tad less stressful defensively. Sure, Sandoval’s already had oscillation in terms of output over his career, but the older he gets, the more the chance for yet another rebound drops, and sooner or later, he won’t be able to reach his peak form anymore. That’s not to say neither of them could be good again, but it wouldn’t be smart to assume that they’ll both round back into four-win-player form. They might be serviceable, but not spectacular.

Speaking of comebacks, John Farrell will return in his usual capacity as manager next season, and Ben Buchanan at Over The Monster speculates that his performance this season will be key to how the Red Sox perform with a lot of new faces and relatively unknown quantities.

I’ll admit, it’s hard to judge managers and their effects on games. You can only evaluate what decisions they make, and sometimes bad choices lead to teams falling backwards into great situations. Buchanan points out that the tolerance for certain players performing badly is lower now than it was, and that Farrell doesn’t have the margin of error that was much wider in the last couple years, health notwithstanding. If a prominent name is routinely performing poorly, things need to change. Farrell has always been seen as a player’s manager, but sometimes hard choices have to be made to keep a team afloat. He won’t be the difference between an AL East pennant and a last-place finish, but being a proactive manager will help this team succeed even more.

Quick Hits

Over at Fangraphs, a post by two analysts experienced in how MLB front offices work talked about the state of analytics in the sport. The notion that you can’t have analytics without scouting holds true, as younger players tend to require more scouting than statistical evaluations to gain a clear idea of what that player is, while older players are the other way around. It’s a very curious read for those wondering how front offices are changing post-sabermetric revolution.

Projections are fun, but one cannot put a lot of stock into them, especially if they’re favorable to your team, writes Mike Silverman at the Boston Herald. The margin bars on a team’s win total are seen at about 10 wins or so, meaning that if the Sox are projected to win 90, they could bottom out and only win 80 or go bonkers and reach 100 victories. Luck and injuries will still play vital roles here, as projections systems can’t account for either on a consistent basis. It’s nice to see the Red Sox at the top of the projections, but they were also there last winter, so be wary.

Dustin Pedroia is a defensive wizard. We know that much is true – he’s the kind of player that’s so good with a glove that you just know you’ll mis him when he’s gone. But, like a lot of us, he’s got no use for defensive metrics like UZR and DRS, or seasons where he can’t even play 100 games, as WEEI’s Rob Bradford reports. Pedroia has always been up front about what he cares and doesn’t care about, and not liking defensive metrics isn’t really a bad thing, since they have been notoriously unreliable from year to year. We all know he’s good at what he does, and as long as he’s not hurt, he’ll do well.

Now that’s he’s got a starting job in the outfield, Jackie Bradley Jr. has the demeanor of a guy ready to take on the challenge of being in Boston, as Tim Britton notes over at the Providence Journal. Playing in a Red Sox uniform is not easy, as Carl Crawford can heartily attest to. JBJ’s gotten over the stress and pressure that come from playing in a town that gives so much attention to the sport. He wants to keep proving himself, and for the sake of all of us, I hope he keeps on doing so.

With Chris Davis back in the AL East, the Orioles become more one-dimensional, as MassLive’s Christopher Smith points out. The Orioles sorely needed competent starting pitching, as they were in the bottom 10 of most starting pitcher statistics last year. Their offense will be good, no doubt – Adam Jones, Manny Machado and the re-signing of Davis certainly help there – but the pitching is a major question mark. On paper, they don’t look like they’ll be to challenge Toronto or Boston, but as they always say, that’s why they play the game.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

With an ace locked up and a revamped bullpen, the Red Sox could sit quietly until spring training and hear little complaints about their offseason work. But, as the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato writes, there’s still an opportunity for the Sox to make improvements with the likes of Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton still available. Mastrodonato proposed three improbable, yet not unrealistic, moves the Red Sox could make to enhance their 2016 roster.

The first idea was to trade Hanley Ramirez and sign Davis. Yes, it’s unlikely Ramirez will have any suitors, but Davis, who had a respectable 5.7 UZR/150 last season, is a clear upgrade at first base. And with 47 home runs and a .390 wOBA last season, he’s also a better hitter. Same goes for Justin Morneau, whom Mastrodonato also proposed the Red Sox acquire as a stop-gap for Sam Travis if they can move Ramirez. Morneau has a career 2.9 UZR/150 as a first baseman and posted a .279 true average and .353 wOBA with the Rockies last year. He’d also come at a far cheaper price. Mastrodonato’s final proposal may have been the most unrealistic, but also the most irrelevant – trading Rusney Castillo and signing Alex Gordon. This can’t happen for two reasons. One, Gordon signed a four-year deal with the Royals on Wednesday. And two that would require a taker for Castillo, who struck out at an 18.7 percent rate last season. That’s without mentioning the millions he’s owed over the next five years.

If you thought that was too good to be true, wait until you see what ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick’s “Most Interesting People in 2016” story inspired. (Do I sound desperate for interesting things to write about?)

Two players who cracked Crasnick’s list were Toronto’s Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, both of whom are free agents at the end of next season. Crasnick suggested that one of the two could serve as the heir apparent to David Ortiz at DH. The Blue Jay Hunter’s Ian Hunter and Bluebird Banter’s Minor Leaguer took it a step further, plotting an all-out Blue Jays reunion in Boston with David Price, Bautista and Encarnacion in 2017. Crazy, right? Believe it or not, it could be done with a little luck and a willingness from the Red Sox to spend big next winter.

Individually, Bautista and Encarnacion are both capable of replacing the seemingly ageless Ortiz. Both players finished with higher TAvs and wOBAs, and hit more home runs than Big Papi in 2015 (Bautista also knows a good bat flip). The problem? One would have to field if both signed. Bautista is a respectable outfielder who would be an upgrade over Jackie Bradley Jr. or Castillo at the plate, and although Encarnacion isn’t known for his glove at third, a replacement for Pablo Sandoval is welcome. The biggest downside would be age. Bautista will be 36 and Encarnacion 34 during the 2017 season, so committing to long term contracts with both players would border on irresponsible. But hey, it’s OK to dream, right?

Quick Hits

As mentioned above, it’s January and many of baseball’s top free-agent bats are still available. The Boston Globe’s Nick Carfardo examines this situation and what it could mean for teams in need of offense over the next two months. The pitchers had their day in November and December. The expectation is the position players will get their big contracts next as plenty of teams are desperate for offense. But how far will some teams, such as the Orioles with Davis, go to sign these available players?

The Red Sox lost a pair of legends last week with the deaths of Dave Henderson and Frank Malzone. The Worcester Telegram’s Bill Ballou wrote about their permanent place in franchise history, as well as that of the many other former Red Sox players.

We’ve talked plenty about trading Castillo in this post, but not enough about what his value to the Red Sox will be in 2016. MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith does just that. Castillo has been a disappointment so far. He has a career .226 TAv in 329 major-league plate appearances, and has struggled to stay healthy. Next season will be an important one for the 28-year-old Cuban defector, who will be in the third year of a seven-year, $72.5 million contract. The Sox clearly see potential in him, and he’ll get his chance to finally reach that point as a probable starting left fielder next season.

MLB.com’s Jim Callis listed 10 prospects poised to surge in 2016 last week. Among them was right-hander Anderson Espinoza, a Venezuelan flamethrower in the Red Sox organization. Espinoza is a 17-year-old who is lauded for his upper-90s fastball (he can touch 100 mph) combined with plus secondary pitches and command. He made such a strong showing in rookie ball that he even saw 3.1 innings of work in Low-A Greenville, where he posted a 2.88 FIP and 10.80 K/9.

Speaking of prospects, Fangraphs released its KATOH projections for Red Sox prospects this week, projections that were kind to the likes of Rafael Devers (9.6 WAR KATOH projection through age 28 season) and Travis (7.3) after breakthrough seasons in the minor leagues in 2015. Espinoza was also highly regarded on the list, cracking No. 4 with a 6.2 WAR projection.

Pitcher Steven Wright participated in a tour of five overseas military bases last month with a group that included several notable celebrities. The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham wrote about Wright’s experience.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

Every year, Max Rieper of Royals Review at SB Nation runs a simulation of the offseason, asking 30 persons (and associated helpers) to play at being General Manager of all 30 MLB franchises. It’s an enjoyable exercise only tangentially related to reality, where bloggers of all stripes play-act as General Managers, negotiate trades and free agent deals with other real people, and attempt to re-shape an organization int heir own image.

(We also dialed it back to the start of the 2015 offseason, so no Craig Kimbrel trade took place in our alternate reality.)

Last year, I hired a team of brilliant minds from Beyond the Box Score to help me run the Shadow Red Sox. The strategy: attempt to emulate Ben Cherington and company’s massive braintrust, in order to turn around a franchise that went from first-to-worst in a down 2014. We traded for Giancarlo Stanton. We signed Kenta Maeda. We went wild.

Somehow, I was brought back to helm the Shadow Red Sox once again this season. But in the era of Dave Dombrowski, I knew I must play a bigger, better role. Like Dombrowski, expectations were high – my team’s handling of the Red Sox’ faux offseason in the previous year earned praise from most corners of the simulation. I was expected, like Dombrowski, to turn the team around from a bottom-of-the-East finish.

I promised myself that I would stick to a plan.

The plan was a simple one: I would fix the Red Sox using the primary resources at my disposal: the best farm system in baseball (suck it, BP Wrigleyville) and a bunch of cash. I would make the Red Sox relevant, competitive in 2016, but also able to change and adapt if the team did not see immediate success. I was assigned a budget of $204 million, which I think was higher than the real-world budget for the Sox, but not too far off.

Getting into specifics, my plan had a few key components:

•      Trade for an ace
•      Acquire an ace in free agency
•      Fix the bullpen
•      Upgrade in an outfield corner
•      Rid the team of Pablo Sandoval’s contract

Sounds pretty simple, right?

My primary free agent targets were threefold, and they all had something in common: no qualifying offers. They were:

•      David Price
•      Yoenis Cespedes
•      Ben Zobrist

As the simulation was about to start, I reached out to a number of teams for my “trade for an ace” strategy. Since trade talks take actual time, I knew I had to act fast. I reached out to the Indians (Kluber), Mets (pick a guy), Marlins (Fernandez) and Rays (Archer) for initial talks. The Indians weren’t all that excited about Kluber, but talks quickly shifted to Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar. They expressed interest in JBJ (actually, almost 10 teams contacted me about him) and Christian Vazquez.

Since I’ve been doing a lot of research on the Indians for an upcoming project, I had a few pet guys I wanted to add to any potential deal. I tried to ask for the moon, in my eyes, by including a top-end prospect as part of the deal as well. After all, I was willing to offer an immediate starter with upside, JBJ and Vazzy.

After a little back and forth, we worked out this deal:

Red Sox acquire Carlos Carrasco, Clint Frazier, Shawn Armstrong, Yandy Diaz, and Mike Clevinger from Cleveland for Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, Henry Owens, Garin Cecchini, and Robbie Ross

I couldn’t believe that I got Frazier in this deal with the Indians’ braintrust: I think he’s a top-25 prospect. So, I had dealt away much of my MLB-ready depth, but I actually ADDED to the team’s prospect stock, acquired a No. 2 starter, nabbed a guy in Armstrong who could be a late-inning reliever, and got flyers on two guys that I think can be good major-leaguers. Great start, and the “best” trade of the offseason, in my view. Oh, and we’re way under the identified $200 million budget.

•      Trade for an ace

(Oh, I exercised options on Ortiz and Buchholz, and non-tendered Cook, Ogando, and Varvaro. But that’s boring)

Elsewhere, chaos ensued. Miami took on loads of money to acquire Lucas Giolito and Trea Turner from Washington (lol). Pittsburgh started a complete teardown (we talked a little about a McCutchen trade).

Now it was time to cut costs.

Red Sox acquire Elniery Garcia from Philadelphia for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly

Allen Craig is making a lot of money, and I did NOT want to pay him. Giving up Joe Kelly was a small price to pay to make him go away, and I took on a prospect I do not feel strongly about. But with Owens and Kelly out of the picture, it was becoming more mission-critical to add another solid starter.

Unfortunately, the free agent market for starting pitching was … it wasn’t good, that’s for sure. We’ll get to more of that later, but no starter is worth more than $35 million per year.

I kept going back and forth with the Marlins about Jose Fernandez, and quickly found out just how much they valued Yoan Moncada. While I really like Moncada, I also really like Jose Fernandez. We worked out a deal focusing on Moncada and Andrew Benintendi, and yes, I know that’s a big package. Before finalizing the deal, I tried to swap out Clint Frazier for Benintendi. I prefer AB to CF, but the Marlins felt the reverse.

Red Sox acquire Jose Fernandez from Miami for Yoan Moncada, Clint Frazier, Michael Chavis, Austin Rei, and Nick Longhi

Ah, now we’re Dombrowski-ing. Two potential top-25 prospects, plus Chavis, plus two other pieces, but suddenly I have my coveted True Ace. And he’s cheap! This is where I start to get greedy, imagining a rotation of Fernandez, Price, Carrasco, Eduardo, and Buchholz. I crack my knuckles. I get to work.

I find out that David Price is in line for a huge deal, one that would eventually be worth $259 million dollars. That’s $37 million per year over seven years.

I slowly back out of the negotiation room.

•      Trade for an ace
•      Sign an ace in free agency
•      Trade for another ace, I guess

I kept in on several free agent pitchers: Zack Greinke would eventually price himself out of my range (more on that in a minute), and I wasn’t high enough on Zimmermann or Cueto to make a major offer there. But, the rotation I now had (Fernandez, Carrasco, Ed, Buchholz, Porcello) would work just fine. I actually, despite talking with others on trades (what can I get for Porcello and cash) and inquiring on mid-level free agents (Marco Estrada!), eventually chose to roll with this rotation. We had six starters (we kept Miley also!), which will be great after Buchholz’s elbow eventually detonates.

New plan: spend loads of money on free agent outfielders. Maybe two. A big upgrade on Rusney Castillo, and a replacement for JBJ. Oh, and maybe I can engage the Marlins on Giancarlo Stanton? Maybe Jason Heyward AND Cespedes?

In the meantime, I started fielding some calls on relievers, and trying to find a taker for Panda. Oh! If I was going to move Sandoval, I’d need a third baseman, right? I considered pushing Hanley over to third, but also was completely willing to roll with Yandy Diaz there to start the season. Then again, that’s not very Dombrowski. Maybe I should ask in on some Pablo replacements?

Red Sox sign Brian Matusz to a two-year, $8 million contract

Bullpen is fixed!

Or … at least we have a lefty. I was very surprised to see him non-tendered, but hey, this gave me another idea. “Can I destroy the rest of the AL East? Can I damage my rivals while making myself stronger.” The answer, eventually, would be a decisive “maybe.”

Red Sox acquire Scott Lieser from Milwaukee for Pablo Sandoval and Javier Guerra

Before you judge me too harshly, keep in mind that at this point, I really thought I could acquire two premium outfielders, or maybe still make a run at Greinke. To do that, I wanted to make sure that I not only had salary space, but that a long, expensive contract could come off the books. That meant ditching Pablo. And the best way to do that, was to package him with a prospect people actually wanted. Guerra’s mostly blocked, but I still would’ve rather dealt him for value … but I consider this selling him for the remainder of Pablo’s contract, or about $75 million.

Red Sox acquire Danny Farquhar from Seattle for Devin Marrero

This is not a value trade. This is an attempt to get another relief arm that could be good, in exchange for a guy who probably has no real role on the team. It was either back to the minors, or lose him in Rule 5. We’ve still got Holt, and we’d get a replacement that I think has a little more upside later.

Red Sox sign Tommy Hunter to a two-year, $10 million contract

In hindsight, I’m afraid I overpaid here. I’m desperate to add live arms to the bullpen, but also to give the team depth and different looks. Hunter’s bad luck on HR in Chicago didn’t faze me, but for this money, I’d hope you could get a .7-win reliever. Not sure that’s Hunter. But he’s an improvement over, say, Alexi Ogando.

We still need an outfielder, and I’ve been sufficiently scared off my top choices. Jason Heyward would eventually get 11 years and over $300 million. Cespedes would get $200 million as well. Alex Gordon took a discount to stay in Kansas City.

Red Sox sign Chris Davis to a five-year, $115 million contract

Meet your new right fielder. If there’s one hallmark of my two-year tenure as Fake Red Sox GM, it’s that you should never be beholden to traditional position restraints … especially when you have a guy who has proven competence outside his normal realm. Davis has been successful enough as a right fielder in Baltimore, that I’m comfortable leaving him there until 2017, in which time Hanley can shift to DH, and Davis can reclaim first base.

… did I mention that Hanley’s getting every opportunity at first base? I gave serious consideration about moving him back to third, just in case the team can’t acquire a decent third baseman – or maybe even trying Davis there for an extended look. Maybe I should go get a third baseman.

Red Sox sign Joakim Soria to a three-year, $33 million contract

Eleven million per season is a lot, and I don’t care how good you are. But despite offering a decent amount for Aroldis Chapman, I really didn’t have any good leads on closers, and closers are typically pretty great relievers. I feel a lot less comfortable giving up prospects for closers than I do money, but this one could sting in year three.

This actually completes the team’s revamped bullpen. I expect it to look something like this on Opening Day:

CL: Joakim Soria
SU: Koji Uehara
SU: Junichi Tazawa
MR: Brian Matusz
MR: Tommy Hunter
MR: Danny Farquhar
MR: Jean Machi
MR: Shawn Armstrong
LR: Wade Miley

It’s not perfect, but it’s a lot better than what we were working with in 2015, and I think a lot of the guys like Layne, Aro, etc. can work in the minors, and you can play a game of “who’s doing well now” versus “oh crap, we have no one good.” No Craig Kimbrel, though … that’s kind of a bummer.

I’d end up exploring a few more moves (Marco Estrada, now that I broke the seal and signed someone with a QO, trading for AJ Ramos, selling Rick Porcello low), but this finalized the pitching staff, more or less.

But this isn’t a Big Dombrowski. We need to convert prospect depth into high-end talent – even more than we already have – to make this a Big Dombrowski. And, ideally, we should crush a rival in the process.

Red Sox acquire Evan Longoria from Tampa Bay for Rafael Devers, Manny Margot, Rusney Castillo, Brian Johnson, and $30 million

There we go. I can certainly see how some people would see this as an overpay, but I still believe in Longoria being a near-elite player on a friendly contract, so I was willing to deal several players who are quite good for him. I’m lower on Castillo and Johnson than most, but I really, really value Devers – I think he could eventually be a star.

That having been said, this is a Dombrowski move. Get someone from a Florida team, who can help you win now. Plus, Longoria is a right-handed bat, meaning that the Sox are now really well-balanced with the additions of both Davis and Longo. It’s a steep price to pay, but the team is very close to having the best lineup in the AL. Eat it, Toronto.

We still have some money left over, right? And with Castillo gone, we definitely need a new outfielder, again. Ben Zobrist could work as a play, but he priced himself very high, going to San Diego for five years and over $20 million per season. Can’t quite compete with that.

Hm. Toronto.

Red Sox acquire Ben Revere from Toronto for Matt Barnes

Barnes still has life in his arm, but Revere is quietly a pretty decent offensive option in left. He’s like a poor-man’s Brett Gardner, now that Gardner’s defense has slipped to normal-human levels. He’s left-handed, which gives the team options. I don’t love him, but I like him. But … the Yankees just boosted their payroll to nearly $300 million by signing Justin Upton and Zack Greinke. I wonder if …

Red Sox acquire Brett Gardner from New York for Ben Revere and Wendell Rijo

Nice. That was unexpected. This means I converted Matt Barnes and Wendell Rijo into Brett Gardner, which I’m pretty sure was the biggest leap out of reality for this team in the entire simulation. I mean … seriously?

But that finalizes my starting lineup, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that it is top-3 in baseball, with a fair chance at No. 1.

1.     Mookie Betts, CF
2.     Chris Davis, RF
3.     Evan Longoria, 3B
4.     David Ortiz, DH
5.     Hanley Ramirez, 1B
6.     Dustin Pedroia, 2B
7.     Brett Gardner, LF
8.     Xander Bogaerts, SS
9.     Blake Swihart, C

Time to fill out the roster with our depth choices and backups.

Red Sox sign Shane Victorino to a one-year, $2 million contract

Red Sox sign Ruben Tejada to a two-year, $4 million contract

Red Sox sign Jeff Francoeur and Rene Rivera to minor-league contracts

That should do it. Since Brock Holt is going to be the first backup for, in essence, every position but first base (love you, Travis Shaw), we had to include another infielder, and at least one outfielder. Tejada still has some upside, and can certainly handle short. Shane is as much a nostalgia piece as anything, but I know he can survive in Boston’s outfield. Could’ve used a right-handed hitter on the bench, though. That’s Francoeur’s role, even though he’s not very good. Rivera is catching depth, in case Hanigan or Swihart gets nicked up, plus he can teach framing.

So that’s it. My tentative start-the-season 25-man roster is:

Catcher: Blake Swihart, Ryan Hanigan

Infield: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Evan Longoria, Brock Holt, Ruben Tejada

Outfield: Chris Davis, Mookie Betts, Brett Gardner, Shane Victorino

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz

Starting Pitchers: Jose Fernandez, Carlos Carrasco, Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley

Relief Pitchers: Joakim Soria, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter, Shawn Armstrong, Danny Farquhar

… and that leaves Shaw as the first man up when there’s an injury in ST, with Jean Machi as the first pitcher into the bullpen.

Let’s review the plan.

•      Trade for an ace
•      Acquire an ace in free agency
•      Fix the bullpen
•      Upgrade in an outfield corner
•      Rid the team of Pablo Sandoval’s contract

Mostly successful, I think. Trading for an ace, that definitely happened. Say what you want, but adding Davis (even if he’s awful defensively) and Gardner is a win over JBJ and Castillo. And Sandoval is long gone. The bullpen could still be a disaster – there’s no dominant arm like a Kimbrel or Chapman, but it looks to carry some upside and more stability over 2015.

The team certainly added impact, immediate talent, but they are also guys who should continue to be productive over the next three-to-five years. Since the free agent market next season looks so bad, striking now to acquire bigger names seemed like the right choice. And don’t forget … about 70% of top prospects don’t pan out, so even dealing ones as good as Moncada and Devers could end up a long-term win, as well as a short-term one.

So. What do you think? Does this do Dave proud, or did I blow it by dealing some of the team’s best prospects?

USA Today Sports Images/Steve Mitchell

In everything I read, in everything I hear, the Red Sox seem to come up as a team who would be willing and able to spend big money this offseason as they attempt to change course of the S.S. Fenway. And my goal, at least for today, is not to try and prognosticate what the team will do, but rather what they can do. It’s a small difference, but perhaps an important one.

How much money do the Red Sox have, and what options does that give them?

According to the Cot’s Contracts page for the Boston Red Sox, the team had a payroll at the start of 2015 of approximately $184 million. That’s the highest payroll the team has ever fielded, and not by a small amount. Currently, according to Cot’s, the team also has about $153 million committed in salary for the 2016 season, before arbitration raises.

While I don’t believe the Sox’s payroll will hit the heights of the 2015 season, I do think the team will likely return to the top of the pack when it comes to total dollars spent, especially as new GM Dave Dombrowski is looking to make a sudden U-turn back to respectability. He’s said that the team payroll is “not going backwards.” My rough guess is $180 million in 2016, which is about a $5 million dip from the previous season, and leaves the team plenty of room to maneuver mid-season.

So … the Sox have about $153 million committed, and my guesstimates for who will stick in arbitration based on Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections (Tazawa, Kelly and Ross) run the bullpen bill up another $7 million. That leaves a grand total of $160 million (give or take a few bucks) committed, and leaves the Sox with about $20-30 million dollars to spend. Of course, my total payroll estimate could be conservative … there could be more cash available. Or everything we hear could be lies, and the team could scale back after the 2014-2015 offseason free agent fiascos. Who knows?

(Note: the team’s top three payroll earners for the next three seasons are Hanley Ramirez, Rick Porcello, and Pablo Sandoval. In 2016, they’ll earn approximately $60.4 million of the team’s projected $180 million payroll. One third of the payroll! 2015 WARP: -1.8! Whoops!)

So, what could the team do with all that scratch?

Option 1: Sign Zack Greinke. Maybe.

Greinke is, in my view, the best possible starting pitching option available on the free market … for the Boston Red Sox. I’m not convinced he’s a better starter than David Price over the next five years, but he’s right-handed (the team already has Ed, Henry, and Brian Johnson on staff), and I’m convinced he can adapt to Fenway Park due to the way he’s constantly made adjustments throughout his big-league career. Having said that, if you want to swap Price’s name for Greinke’s above, have at it.

Either name mentioned above is likely to command top dollar. Truthfully? I’m not sure that either player will settle for less than $25-$30 million per season. Both challenged for Cy Young awards this season and are still at or near their primes. Other teams will be looking to spend on pitching from New York to Los Angeles. Greinke has been paid $26 million in a single season before, and I doubt he’s looking to take a pay cut. David Price is two years younger and, arguably, better than Greinke.

This expensive option takes nearly every other cash-added option off the table, unless the Red Sox move salary some other way. While that’s an option, sure, keep in mind that the Red Sox’s big contracts are albatrosses, and would require the team to give up good talent to move them.

Option 2: Sign Multiple Lower-Tier Free Agents

Instead of buying the $80 steak from the white-glove steakhouse, perhaps the Sox are in the market for a couple of really tasty entrees at the bistro. To find these guys, I’m looking at the lower end of the qualifying-offer list: guys like Wei-Yin Chen. The team could use some offense as well, so perhaps a Chris Davis or a Dexter Fowler might fit in here. And then, of course, there are the various and sundry players at even a lower level-your Doug Fisters and David Freeses, your Jerry Blevinses. Blevii? Whatever.

This is certainly an option as well, though I have a bit of concern that if the team inks an Orioles combo platter of Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen, the team will be on the hook for a similar amount of money as they might be to an ace like Greinke or Price. Instead of having one (hopefully) transcendent star, they’d have two good-but-not-great players, and perhaps the same amount of risk.

Option 3: Buy A “Bad” Contract

Like the Sox, plenty of teams have contracts that they wish they could shed. With the free agent class looking like one of the best in years, I’m fairly certain that several teams would be over the moon to drop a pricey contract in the hopes that they could spend that money in a different area. Examples include the Padres’ pricey James Shields contract ($65 million over the next three seasons) or the Rockies’ pact with Carlos Gonzalez ($37 million over the next two seasons).

There are several performers who have contracts that don’t exactly track with their recent performances — as mentioned before, the Red Sox have three of them themselves — but the idea of paying top dollar for players who aren’t performing up to high expectations could be a bit much for a team already on the hook for “dead money” over the next few years.

But … while I’m here, can I throw out an interesting possibility? I love the idea of the Sox making a play for the Twins’ Joe Mauer, provided that Minnesota would eat about half of his contract. The Twins were the team that added Park, and seemingly have a logjam at first base now. The Sox could certainly use another bat with OBP potential, and Mauer could ideally fill a number of roles (first base, DH, even right field and catching instructor) as he transitions away from a superstar role into a complementary one.

(Of course, if Mauer is just replacement-level again in 2016, nearly any investment in him would be a bad one.)

I’m not sure that taking on a bad contract fits inside the old Red Sox wheelhouse, where they typically added players on shorter contracts and gave up guaranteed money in the legendary Adrian Gonzalez / Carl Crawford deal. But Dombrowski hasn’t shied away from taking on money in his previous regimes. This is definitely an option in play.

Option 4: Swap Future Value for Present Value

This is the type of thing that can get you fired in Toronto, but it is the hallmark of past Dombrowski teams. The Sox are positively loaded in the minor leagues, even after the Craig Kimbrel trade, and they have the unique ability to add major league talent — talent that could be expensive in terms of dollars, or much cheaper — to their roster. These are not deals that any team could make — but the Sox are in a position all teams wish they could at least consider: using talent instead of money to add stars.

If any player at all is on the market, the Red Sox are in play. If the Mets are sick of Matt Harvey’s attitude, the Red Sox are one of the few teams that could pay the freight to move him to Boston. He could be the new Massachusetts Bureau Chief. The same is true with Yasiel Puig in Los Angeles. These are players who won’t come cheap, but the Sox have the prospect depth to be able to make these deals … if that’s what they decide they want. This way, they could acquire impactful talent at a fraction of the cost a top-tier free agent would bring in.

Is this kind of move a good idea? Of course, that’s almost impossible to say up front. It has certainly worked for some teams — don’t you think that the Red Sox would have loved to have traded for Josh Donaldson instead of signing Pablo Sandoval? At the same time, not all of these types of trades work out — think the Padres and their acquisition of Wil Myers, which has been a mixed bag to date.

Option 5: Some Combination of No. 2 – No. 4 Above

In the end, I think this is the team’s most likely option. While I would absolutely love to see the Sox go out and get Zack Greinke or Jason Heyward, logic dictates that the team will use Dombrowski’s trading acumen and avoid linking themselves to one huge contract when they already have so many on the books. Especially with the free agent market a bit top-loaded, I could easily see the Sox being aggressive in the trade market to bring in one or two talented mid-tier players (think 2-4 WARP types), before reloading in the middle-to-bottom tier of free agency.

In today’s baseball economy, $30 million is hardly a fortune. The Twins probably have at least that much to spend this season. The Twins! The Red Sox could commit all of that to a single player, or they could leverage a creative trading GM, spend some of their prospect currency, and make that money fill more holes than just one.

The real takeaway here is that, unlike many teams, who are locked into a roster core and/or may not have the resources that the Sox do, all of these options are on the table. Other teams looking to rebuild may find themselves with some money to spend, but without the prospect resources, or the flexibility, to improve in other ways. No matter what ends up happening, you can’t say that the Red Sox don’t have choices during this critical offseason.

Photo by Peter Aiken/USA Today Sports Images

What the Red Sox truly feel behind the scenes is anybody’s guess, and there’s some evidence that the club has no intention of bringing Ramirez back. They sent him home six weeks before the season ended, which isn’t exactly a good look for a player who has a long-held reputation as a clubhouse cancer. Also, Dombrowski didn’t sign Ramirez to his current deal, and perhaps he’ll be far less interested in contending with the 30-year-old’s baggage than Ben Cherington was.

No, Ramirez’s contract, which has three years and $66 million remaining on it, won’t be easy to move. But it’s not an impossible task either, especially if Boston foots part of the bill and throws in a couple of decent prospects for good measure.

Yet if Dombrowski does part with Hanley, who will play first base for the Red Sox in 2016?

Travis Shaw is the obvious in-house candidate, and his performance down the stretch likely earned him a roster spot next season. However, Shaw comes with plenty of question marks, including an inconsistent minor league track record and mediocre road numbers that suggest his true talent level might not be what he showed in the final two months of 2015.

For a squad looking to contend again next year, expecting 500 plate appearances of above-average offense from Shaw is likely wishful thinking.

All of these details make free-agent first baseman Chris Davis an intriguing proposition for the Red Sox. While Dombrowski has stated the team’s main offseason goal is to improve its pitching staff across the board, Boston could decide to trade for a pitcher rather throw money at a top hurler on the open market.

There are reasons to be skeptical about Davis, of course. His career strikeout rate sits at 31 percent, and he goes through his fair share of cold spells at the plate. Whether his home-run production will drop away from the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards is a legitimate question, too.

Still, he’s been among the best power hitters in the game over the last four years. Dating back to the start of 2012, in fact, Davis leads all major leaguers in home runs (159), ranks eighth in slugging percentage (.533) and second in ISO (.277). There may not be any hitter in the game with more raw power than Chris Davis.

His performance in 2015, when he batted .262/.361/.562 with 47 home runs, reaffirmed that, even with all the strikeouts, Davis can produce at a level that few hitters in the game are able to match. He’s also stayed healthy throughout much of his career, topping 500 plate appearances in each of his four campaigns with the Orioles.

What Davis can give the Red Sox, then, is a certifiable power threat, and a hitter who can guard against possible regression on offense. Despite Boston’s strong play in the second half, the team’s lineup isn’t certain to perform that well throughout 2016. Pablo Sandoval is a huge question mark, Dustin Pedroia is perpetually sidelined with injury, and the likes of Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo could easily prove incapable of full-time roles.

Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and David Ortiz—at the age of 40—shouldn’t be expected to carry the offensive load by themselves.

Just what type of money Davis will command on the open market is the biggest question here. The Red Sox shouldn’t get into a bidding war over Davis, especially if he starts commanding a salary much beyond that $100 million mark.

But nonetheless, would Boston be better served throwing $200 million at Jordan Zimmerman or Zack Greinke, or spending much less than that on Davis? The question can’t easily be answered, but we all know the risks associated with aging starting pitchers as they move into their thirties. At 29 years old, Davis shouldn’t see his power suddenly decline overnight.

Signing Davis, moreover, wouldn’t prevent Shaw or well-regarded prospect Sam Travis from having a future in Boston either. One can imagine Davis fitting snugly into the DH role once Ortiz retires, and both Shaw and Travis need more seasoning before taking on everyday roles anyhow.

What makes this offseason so fascinating is the number of routes Dombrowski could take in fine-tuning the Red Sox roster. He might spend big money in free agency or use the club’s minor-league depth to trade for MLB-ready performers. If Boston’s brass ends up dealing for a starter, they could do worse than spending some money on Davis, whose offensive production is more dependable than his reputation might suggest. You’d have to think the Red Sox would better off with Davis at first than Hanley next season, even if it would take some creative maneuvering from Dombrowski.

Some may view Davis as an unnecessary luxury, especially when the team’s pitching staff needs an upgrade. To be sure, finding a frontline starter is the most important task facing the Red Sox this offseason. Yet the offense shouldn’t be ignored either, and Davis possesses the kind of power that isn’t easily attainable in the modern game.

Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports Images

This smacks of 2014. It’s a situation with a multiple redundancies, and it’s entirely likely that each of those will fail. The situation the Red Sox find themselves in, coming off a season that saw them finish 19th in WAR by first baseman, is with two, and maybe three first base possibilities on the roster. The first is the recently endorsed Hanley Ramirez. I wrote a while back about how moving Ramirez to first base is a terrible idea. In the piece I said of moving Ramirez, “It’s a terrible idea.” That’s not to say there’s any better place to put him, though. It’s like Churchill’s famous quote about democracy. It’s the worst form of government except for all the others. First base is the worst place to put Hanley Ramirez, except for every other place on the field.

Even so, there are basic problems with putting Hanley at first, namely he’s never played there before and we’ve seen how that worked in left field. There was a time when you’d have said “he played major league shortstop for the better part of a decade, so he can play first base,” but now you can’t say that because 2015 happened. Yet the Red Sox are proceeding like he will be able to play there. This is strange, except maybe it isn’t. Remember how last off-season the Red Sox were talking about Yoenis Cespedes? He was an integral part of the club and was going to play center field if needed and blah blah blah and then they traded him, which we knew they would all along. This feels like that.

It’s like Churchill’s famous quote about democracy. First base is the worst place to put Hanley Ramirez, except for every other place on the field.

We all wanted Hanley to work out back in Boston but if he can’t play defense and DH is taken and the AL isn’t going to adopt a second DH just to spite the NL, then the Red Sox’ hands seem tied. Then again, counter argument: Hanley has zero trade value now. Nobody would want his contract. Last week in this space I speculated about the Red Sox re-acquiring Jacoby Ellsbury from the Yankees, who would in turn take back a bad contract to even things out. While writing that piece I considered putting Hanley into that bad contract spot, but I went with Allen Craig instead because, ridiculous as that whole idea was, putting Hanley into the deal made it that much more ridiculous. The Yankees don’t have a spot for him to play because there isn’t a spot for him to play almost anywhere on the field. So when you look at it from that perspective, there’s really nothing to lose, because there is no value there right now anyway. A stock with zero value can’t drop any further.

The problem is, if the Red Sox are going to keep Ramirez and try to teach him first base, then they’re locking themselves in to a Ramirez/Travis Shaw first base situation. If Ramirez is to be the starter, it’ll be hard to convince a decent free agent to come to Boston.

As for Shaw, he had a spectacular run in Boston during the second half of the 2015 season but is anyone buying .274/.331/.491 from a guy with a .256/.319/.395 slash line in Triple-A? Maybe Shaw has figured something out, but if so it isn’t walking, as he walked in only 7.3 percent of his plate appearances this season while striking out in 23 percent. That’s not wholly unsustainable, or even awful, but you have to be able to drive the ball to have value with numbers like that. Shaw did, but I’m not sure I want to bet on that ability sticking around next season and beyond. It’s fine if he’s a back-up who can play some third base, but as a starter you’re rolling some serious dice.

So now we’ve got a guy who couldn’t play left field and has no experience at the position playing first base and begin backed up by a guy with a track record of mediocrity in the minors. That could work, and it could work very well, but you don’t have to squint very hard to see how things could turn out badly.

The alternative if both Ramirez and Shaw fail, hardly an impossibility, is Sam Travis. Travis has done a nice job in the minors since Boston picked him in the second round in 2014. He might be a starting first baseman in the majors one day, but he’s played just half a season above Single-A so that time isn’t likely now, or anytime before September of next season as the very earliest. He hit just fine in Double-A for sure, a slash line of .300/.384/.436 while walking and striking out almost in equal measure, and it’s not inconceivable that he could reach Boston in the near future, but is that the kind of thing you want to count on happening? Maybe, but if so the Red Sox shouldn’t agree with you.

Unlike last season, the Red Sox need to be prepared for Ramirez to fail at first base because knowing what we know and having seen what we’ve seen, that seems like the most likely scenario. They have to be prepared for Travis Shaw to turn back into what he’s looked like for the past few seasons, which is a capable backup at best. And they have to be prepared for Sam Travis to hit a bump or two and not be able to jump two more levels and start at first base for the Red Sox next season.

So now the question is, how do you do that? Of course there is the prime free agent at first base: Chris Davis, Scott Boras client and formerly of the Baltimore Orioles. Davis would out-hit Ramirez and certainly he would out-field him as well, and maybe if Ramirez can be off-loaded somewhere else, that’s where the Red Sox choose to spend the money, but that seems unlikely. More likely is that if the Red Sox want Davis, they’re going to end up spending between $40 and $50 million on first baseman next season between he and Ramirez. Also, as good as Davis is, he doesn’t seem like the place the front office is determined to burn their capital on because Davis doesn’t pitch (no, I don’t want to talk about it, thanks).

Which brings us back to Ramirez, Shaw, and Travis. The Red Sox tried banking on uncertainty in 2014 and it failed them miserably. They tried it again this season with Ramirez and again, it failed. It’s for that reason I have a hard time believing Dave Dombrowski when he says Ramirez will be the starting first baseman next season.

Thing is, he may not be lying when he says it because when it comes down to it, he may not have another choice.

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