The assumption this offseason has been that the Red Sox are going to add a big bat. The offense was D.O.A. just a bit too often last summer for Dave Dombrowski, and the J.D. Martinez match just fits too well.

*knocks on wood until his knuckles bleed*

All the “_____ needs to be better” noise seems to start and end with Mookie.

The team seems to be out of the Eric Hosmer Sweepstakes™, so at this point it seems like it’s JD Martinez or bust. The notion that the Red Sox could benefit purely from internal improvement isn’t one that the team disagrees with, as Dombrowski threw some players under the bus  mentioned earlier in the offseason that they were counting on offensive improvements across the board.

All the “_____ needs to be better” noise seems to start and end with Mookie. While it’s not entirely fair — Betts was still an above-average offensive player last season — it’s easy to understand why some might have been underwhelmed by his production. He was a 7-8 win player (depending on where you look) in 2016, but came up short of repeating that in 2017. After slashing .318/.363/.534 in 2016, Betts hit .264/.344/.459 last year, prompting many to fire up their hottest takes and yell endlessly into the void.

Let me stress again that Betts was good — very good, even — last year. He’s still one of the premier young players in baseball, and the 10.5 million dollars that an independent arbiter awarded him proves that. The first thing that sticks out when you look and see what went “wrong” last year is Betts’ aggression at the plate. Here, courtesy of Brooks Baseball, are Betts’ swinging percentages from 2016 and 2017:

Also worth noting: Betts’ walk rate rose over four percentage points between 2016 and 2017, the largest jump of his young career. Betts was clearly more selective at the dish, and I can’t help but wonder how much being more selective hurt his overall offensive profile. Drawing more walks is by no means a bad thing, but Betts wasn’t just laying off bad pitches — he also took strikes at a higher rate than either of his previous two years, and the most since his first season in the bigs. This team isn’t going to live or die by Betts taking marginally more walks, but there were more than a few at-bats last season where it seemed like he was taking pitches that he could have done a lot of damage with.

I don’t think it’s entirely coincidental that Mookie’s best offensive year also came when he was most aggressive at the plate. We already know he has a great eye, as made evident by the consistently-low strikeout rate he’s kept over his three full seasons. I’m of the opinion that the best version of Mookie Betts is a bit more of a free-swinger than he was last season, and Alex Cora’s look-for-early-strikes methodology seems to say the team agrees.

In the end, learning how to better draw walks was probably a good thing for Betts’ career. Especially considering that Betts will be the leadoff hitter heading into spring, it’s nice to know that he’s learning how to work a count. With that said, I selfishly want to see him swing the bat more, because days like this make him so damn fun to watch:

Photo by Wendell Cruz — USA TODAY Sports

For all those teams’ success, there’s a notable local organization lagging behind in terms of hype: the Red Sox. Few people seem to be talking about them right now. It’s been an unusually quiet offseason across the MLB, but perhaps the only Red Sox talking point of note right now is the extended stare-down with free agent J.D. Martinez. After that, it’s… Mitch Moreland’s two-year deal? Yikes.

I’m not used to feeling so unenthused about the Red Sox. They were the team that brought me into Boston sports, after all. In a manner of speaking, I suppose I’m sort of a bandwagon fan, but it wasn’t one of the championship teams that brought me here. No, it was the 2009 team that did that — if you remember, that’s the one that got swept by the Angels in the ALDS.

It was a simple decision: “Maybe I’ll give baseball a shot.” I was in high school, and football wasn’t quite cutting it for me, so I felt it was time to branch out. The Red Sox and Angels were on, and it didn’t take long for me to get hooked. I loved Dustin Pedroia’s fiery demeanor, David Ortiz’s easy confidence, and most of all, Kevin Youkilis’ completely absurd batting stance. Jon Lester’s triumph over lymphoma was incredibly cool, and Josh Beckett looked liable to beat up an opposing hitter at a moment’s notice, which was also pretty cool in its own way.

The season ended too soon after, but it was a busy offseason for me; I needed to learn more about these players, this franchise, this city. I knew about The Curse and the legendary 2004 team that finally ended it. I didn’t know about the comeback against the Yankees, or Kevin Millar’s endless quotability, or Manny’s tendency to always be Manny. I didn’t know they went back and did it again in 2007 with plenty of new faces, including the undefinable Pedroia, the Laser Show and the Muddy Chicken, who I did know was a man after my own heart as soon as I read about his “Ask Jeff Francis who the fuck I am,” quote.

I’m on my ninth year with the Boston Red Sox now, and I’ve seen my fair share of highs and lows, from fried chicken and beer to getting a chance to watch a Boston championship myself. I got to see David Ortiz’s famed postseason heroics live before my eyes, as he was engulfed in flames against the Cardinals and drove the team of beards and Koji Uehara high fives to their third title in ten years. Those 2013 Red Sox rebounded from the worst record in the AL East the year before, which in some ways encapsulates what its been like to follow this team over that time.

If the Red Sox built my Boston fandom, then the Celtics cemented it. My timing wasn’t any better with them — I started following just late enough to miss the dominant 2007-08 championship team. Still, over the next several seasons, I was hooked. The “Big Three” Celtics were a team of dominant personalities — Paul Pierce’s unshakable confidence, Kevin Garnett’s frenzied barking, Ray Allen’s unflappable consistency — and even as they all began to grow old, there was a pridefulness to them. The decrepit Celtics were an annoyance, the team that would give too much effort every night and use their veteran saavy to frustrate younger, more athletic teams. They took LeBron James and the eventual champion Miami Heat to seven games in the 2011-12 Eastern Conference Finals, and it was sort of a last hurrah for the group. LeBron might have buried them, but they went out swinging.

Since the Celtics’ loss to Miami and the Red Sox win over St. Louis the next year, the two franchises have seemed to trend in different directions. The Celtics hit rock bottom in 2013-14, going 25-57 and finishing 12th in the Eastern Conference. They’ve made the playoffs and improved their record in every season since. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been, to some extent, treading water. They’ve posted two losing seasons since the championship, followed by consecutive 93-win campaigns where they never really felt like a legitimate contender.

It feels as though there’s just more of a plan behind the Celtics than the Red Sox. Danny Ainge has spent years meticulously compiling and flipping draft picks, capitalizing on undervalued players, and finding the right opportunities to spend. The two most significant free agent signings in franchise history — Al Horford and Gordon Hayward — came in the past two offseasons. Ainge avoids panic moves and trades from a position of strength as well as any GM in professional sports, to the point where he’s often teased for his reluctance to part with his assets. This past summer, the Celtics passed on a number of potential deals for superstars who changed teams. Paul George was available, but is also on the final year of his contract, likely to bolt for Los Angeles this coming summer. It was a bad bet for Ainge to pay up for a player he couldn’t guarantee he could keep, so he didn’t.

On the flip side, the Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two — Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski. Cherington, though he had his own faults, was more similar to Ainge — building up the farm system and avoiding bad contracts that would kill flexibility… right up until he signed two awful contracts that destroyed his flexibility in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.

The Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two.

Enter Dombrowski, who, to a fault, loves the big splash. Dombrowski was hired in August of 2015, and by November, he’d already shelled out $217 million to David Price and shipped four prospects away in exchange for Craig Kimbrel. That’s not to say these deals were the wrong things to do at the time, but considering Dombrowski’s body of work, it’s a fair critique to say that he often opts to throw money and assets at problems until they go away.

Subsequently, this current offseason isn’t terribly surprising. Dombrowski is locked in a staring contest with J.D. Martinez, who is a player this lineup desperately needs. The Red Sox are starved for power, and previous deals have left the farm system depleted enough to make trades for top-end talent difficult. If Martinez ends up elsewhere, there may not be another move to be made right now.

And in some ways, that’s the point. Danny Ainge didn’t need Paul George. He was building on a team that made the conference finals the year before and months later is sitting in first place in the conference right now, all while sitting on a treasure hoard of draft picks and young talent. He’s a strong, independent GM who don’t need no blockbuster trade. There were dozens of pathways open to the Celtics this past summer, and all Ainge had to do was find the one he liked the best. The one he chose has the Celtics competitive right now without sacrificing virtually any long-term upside.

This kind of result is difficult to achieve without consistency, and, in essence, the Red Sox have been an organizational roller coaster. Cherington took charge and immediately had to address missteps by Theo Epstein, most notably the infamous Carl Crawford contract. Since his departure, Cherington’s carefully cultivated farm system has largely either graduated or been shipped off by Dombrowski. Conversely, Dombrowski has had to struggle with those albatross contracts for Sandoval and Ramirez, the latter of which is still owed $44 million over the next two years, assuming his option vests. They’ve been tying knots and challenging the next guy to unravel them. Is Dave Dombrowski the guy to lead a franchise to sustained, long-term success? Tigers fans of the past three seasons might have some thoughts on the matter.

This is all a long way of saying that, as a fan, the Red Sox don’t give me that feeling of utter confidence the way the Celtics do. Remember the feeling we all had when that large contract for Pablo Sandoval looked likely, even though the case against that signing was obvious? It’s certainly unrealistic to expect any team to operate as efficiently and with as high of a success rate as the Celtics have over the past 10+ years, but there’s an unavoidable aura of “I hope this doesn’t blow up in our faces” in place.

My point is not to predict doom and gloom with the current state of the Red Sox. Far from it. They’re more likely than not to win 90+ games again this season, and they have a collection of young stars like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Rafael Devers that will be anchoring the lineup for years to come. They have two Cy Young winners in their starting rotation, and those guys aren’t even as good as their ace. If you’re going to have problems with your baseball franchise, these are probably the ones to have — it certainly beats being the Derek Jeter-led Marlins.

But following the Red Sox transformed my sports fandom, and not long after that, the Celtics did it again. It’s impossible not to compare the two. I love watching Mookie Betts and Chris Sale, but on the macro level, something’s just fundamentally off with the Red Sox right now, and it’s never more apparent than when the Celtics are on TV. With as much as the team has going for it right now, it’s telling that they’re receiving so little buzz — and that’s without mentioning how the Yankees appear to be rising fast.

I can’t say for sure how good the Red Sox will be this season — too much depends on Martinez’s status, first and foremost. Players like Price, Ramirez, and Pedroia are aging, Chris Sale has two years remaining on his contract, and younger contributors like Betts and Bogaerts are into their arbitration seasons. Jason Groome and Michael Chavis are nice prospects, but even Groome is still a-ways off, and the system around them is thin. Major roster decisions are coming in the next few years, and it’s hard to divine the greater plan in place here — if in fact there is one.

I know the Celtics will be very good, though. They already are, and there isn’t much reason to think they won’t continue to be for years to come. Danny Ainge has put together a well-oiled machine that has missed the playoffs only three times since the 2003-04 season. For a Red Sox franchise in need of some year-to-year consistency and sustained success, looking to their sibling franchise for some ideas might not be the worst idea.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper — USA TODAY Sports

“Imagine a…”

“Let me stop you right there.”

The Red Sox snagged d’Arnaud off waivers from the Atlanta Braves in the dead of night during a late April injury blizzard. Dustin Pedroia was having trouble with his knees, as was Pablo Sandoval who, it turned out, was also terrible. Brock Holt’s vertigo prevented him from helping out and Josh Rutledge was still in Triple-A recovering from a hamstring strain sustained while participating in ham-on-a-string exercises (unrelated) during Spring Training. All of a sudden, the Red Sox had no middle infielders they could play after Xander Bogaerts but, more importantly, they had no middle infielders they could not play. The Red Sox were all of a sudden a baseball team without this most important of commodities. Who was going to sit in the dugout, chat to nobody about things, and chew sunflower seeds?

Of course, the answer to their injury epidemic is obvious in retrospect: surgically remove the legs of every infielder on the roster and auction off the severed limbs for charity. Just think how one of Brock Holt’s legs would look in a plastic case adorned with a Red Sox logo up on your mantle? It’d be magnificent, and the Jimmy Fund would make a fortune. Strangely, that most clear of answers seemed to elude everyone, so, in lieu of that, the Red Sox went waiver wire dumpster diving to solve their problems. They came across some pretty sweet cardboard boxes, a few dead fish, Chase d’Arnaud, and bag of half-eaten cat crunchies.

You might not expect much of anyone acquired in such a manner, and certainly d’Arnaud was no different from those low expectations, but boy howdy he delivered on each and every low expectation. The Red Sox called on d’Arnaud during an early May game against the Twins. The Red Sox entered the ninth inning leading Minnesota 7-6, but the Red Sox quickly gained a small and precarious lead by scoring eight runs. After an infield single by Dustin Pedroia, manager John Farrell, looking down the barrel of a gun, turned to his best player.

“Get in there, d’Arnaud!” he probably didn’t ever shout.

“You got it, skip!” replied the ever-ready part-time pinch-hitter.

d’Arnaud took his place at first base and immediately began dancing dangerously off the bag. Twins pitcher Justin Haley threw over to first once, twice, three times, desperate to preserve the eight-run deficit for what he felt would be the Twins inevitable comeback during the bottom of the inning. But d’Arnaud’s wild dancing frustrated him. He threw over again and again and again and again, but each time d’Arnaud dove back just ahead of the tag. After Haley’s last throw, Twins first baseman Joe Mauer trotted over to Haley. “The kid’s just too good,” said Mauer. “Focus on the batter.”

“I can’t,” replied Haley. “I’m just too flummoxed. I’m going to have to throw a really bad pitch.”

“Well, uh, okay,” said Mauer, and handed Haley the ball. Haley’s next pitch was a meatball. Xander Bogaerts hit it for a triple, scoring Mookie Betts and d’Arnaud all the way from first, and extending the Red Sox lead to a comfortable 10 runs. The Red Sox were just able to hold on in the bottom of the inning. They won 17-6, all thanks to Chase d’Arnaud.

You might think that after such a performance the Red Sox might have started d’Arnaud, but they did not. Asked about it by reporters, manager John Farrell winked and grinned. “I like to keep my secret weapons where I can use them when I need them,” he said. Later that day against the Brewers, Farrell needed his secret once more. Trailing 6-1 in the top of the fifth inning, Farrell tried something radical. “This isn’t working,” he reportedly whispered to himself. “Think, John. Dammit, you’ve got to think!” With one out and the pitcher due up, it suddenly hit Farrell like a ton of bricks: d’Arnaud!

“Get in there, d’Arnaud!” he definitely didn’t ever say.

“You got it, skip!” replied the ever-ready part-time pinch-runner.

With d’Arnaud running up the steps, Farrell stopped him. “You’re going to need this,” he said, handing him a broom. “Was that supposed to be a bat?” d’Arnaud asked? “You guessed it,” chuckled Farrell. “I’m really not very good at this managing thing.” Thus inspired d’Arnaud stepped to the plate against possibly the best pitcher in the history of baseball, Wily Peralta.

Peralta’s first pitch was a 110 mph fastball on the corner. “Strike one!” shouted the umpire. His second pitch was a 120 mph fastball on the inside corner. “Strike two!” shouted the umpire. d’Arnaud stepped out of the box. He realized what he was up against. He knew how nobody had ever faced a more perilous situation in baseball, but he was determined. He cocked his bat and stood there watching as a 99 mph curveball draped itself around the plate. “Ball one,” said the umpire. Now d’Arnaud was ready. He stared out at Peralta who stared back, both knowing what was at stake, perhaps the most important fifth inning at-bat by non-rivals from different leagues in early May in baseball history.

Peralta reared back and fired. d’Arnaud took a mighty swing and hit a weak grounder up the middle. The second baseman fielded the ball, but his heart was heavy when he did, because he knew he could never catch d’Arnaud. Crossing the first base bag, d’Arnaud slowed and stopped before the enormity, the sheer gravity of what he’d done struck him. As his team mates raced from the dugout to mob him and the loudspeakers blared the theme to The Natural, d’Arnaud knelt gently in the grass, a single tear falling from his face. Somewhere, Robert Redford muttered, “No, that’s perfect,” as d’Arnaud was lifted and carried around the field by his teammates.

The next inning they took him out for Fernando Abad. That would be the last time d’Arnaud stepped on a playing field for the Boston Red Sox. Asked about his decision to release d’Arnaud, Team President Dave Dombrowski said, “When you love something, set it free.”

But I digress. On to his season recap!

What Went Right

He got an infield single in his only Red Sox at-bat.

What Went Wrong

Whatever.

What To Expect

Nothing.

Thanks for reading.

Photo by Jeff Hanisch — USA TODAY Sports

That answer is simple – identify the best players available via free agency and trade and go get them. This is the Dave Dombrowski approach to the offseason, and it’s one that has generally worked well, netting him key members of the team like Chris Sale and David Price over the past two years.

The Red Sox made a big deal this year about staying under the luxury tax threshold of $195 million in order to reset the penalties that result when the team exceeds those limits. This has been done. Staying under the cap next year will derive the team no more added benefit other than the money that they would save in doing so. As it stands right now, Cot’s Contracts has the team’s estimated salary for 2018 at slightly over $202 million. The team would actively have to shed players in order to stay under the $197 million threshold for 2018.

This should not be a direction the team looks to go, since time is running out for this core. The 2018 season will be the last year for two of the team’s best pitchers in Drew Pomeranz and Craig Kimbrel, players he acquired via trade. There is also no guarantee that Price won’t opt out of his deal at the end of 2018 if he is healthy and pitching well, though admittedly this is the best scenario for both the team and the player. After the 2019 season, things start to get really bleak, Sale, Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello, and Tyler Thornburg will all become free agents. Say what you want about Porcello, but he eats innings, comes with modest upside, and is signed to a fair deal. Thornburg may yet even play baseball. Finally, after 2020 Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, and Carson Smith will all hit free agency, leaving the team with a core of Eduardo Rodriguez, Rafael Devers, and Andrew Benintendi.

It’s entirely possible – perhaps even probable – that the team gets extensions done with key members of the team like Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts but it’s far from a sure thing. Dombrowski sure isn’t going to bank on those things happening, nor should he. Everything he has done as president of baseball operations has been to optimize this current window, when he knows he has these players under contract during the prime of their careers. The most important seasons for this team are the next two years, while Sale remains under contract. Next year is especially significant because the team has relatively few holes in the rotation and bullpen, but could use an offensive boost at first base and designated hitter positions, both specifically mentioned by Dombrowski in his press conference following John Farrell’s firing.

Meanwhile, the American League has gotten a whole lot better. The Yankees were one win away from the World Series with an enviable core of young controllable players. They are also primed to exit next year’s off-season with Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Dallas Keuchel as new members of their team. You might laugh, but this has been Brian Cashman’s plan all along. The team even has the space this offseason to sign an ace like Yu Darvish while still staying under the luxury tax threshold, resetting themselves for their upcoming spending spree.

That’s just the in-division threat. The Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians aren’t going anywhere, with large parts of their 100-win teams locked up for the next few seasons. Maybe Dombrowski picked a terrible time to push his chips in, but he had no choice but to maximize the current roster. It won’t be easy getting past the Yankees, Astros, and Indians, but there’s no way around them. They need to go right through.

Maybe Dombrowski picked a terrible time to push his chips in, but he had no choice but to maximize the current roster.

Dombrowski needs to go out and do what he does best and sign J.D. Martinez. He can’t stop there though, he needs at least one more bat, so maybe Eric Hosmer, or perhaps Giancarlo Stanton. If it was up to me, I’d cut Hanley Ramirez, play Martinez at DH and sign Hosmer to play first. But why stop there? Dombo should sign a quality lefty reliever like Mike Minor or Jake McGee and then call it a day. Will he obliterate the luxury tax threshold by doing this? Yes, but so what? The Dodgers have had payrolls upward of $271 million over the last few years, and they’re in the World Series.

The bottom line is that when Dombrowski recognizes a need, he goes out and addresses that need. He doesn’t take any half measures; he addresses needs with full force. For a team that had a likability problem in 2017, changing managers was a great idea. Let’s give the new manager the tools he needs to succeed in 2018 and beyond. I think John Henry and the rest of the ownership group will find out that long playoff runs and lineups that can hit will make back any additional money spent on payroll. When the duck boats cruise past Government Center, the last thing we will all be thinking about is the luxury tax threshold.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

We’ve entered into a time when the talent base in Major League Baseball is as stratified as it’s been in a long time, possibly since free agency took hold. This 2017 season featured three 100-win teams, the Dodgers, Astros, and Cleveland. If you believe pythagorean record though, the Yankees should also be added to that list, as their runs scored and allowed numbers were those of a 100-62 team. That only intensifies the situation the Red Sox find themselves in. Over the past 14 seasons (as far back as I looked) there are two seasons with multiple 100-win teams: 2004 and this past season. Obviously there is only one season over that time period that featured more than two 100-win teams: the 2017 season. For Boston, this means three incredibly talented franchises are standing in the way of a World Series win, four if you include the Yankees, and really, why wouldn’t you? That’s a daunting landscape.

The fact that three of those four are in the American League should be downright terrifying if you work on Yawkey Way. This sets the bar extremely high to win a World Series. Just look at what the Yankees will have to do to win this year’s World Series. They beat the 102-win Indians, and they’re likely to beat the 101-win Astros. Their reward should they accomplish that? They get to play the 104-win Dodgers! That has to be about the most brutal stretch of postseason play imaginable! The only other team I can recall who bested multiple 100-win teams in a single postseason was the 2004 Red Sox, who beat the 101-win Yankees and the 105-win Cardinals, but also beat the 92-win Angels in the first round. Otherwise, this level of competition is unprecedented, yet this is exactly what the 2018 Red Sox are likely to face.

So how does a team deal with this kind of competition – a kind of competition that hasn’t been seen in baseball at least for the past few decades, if ever? There are multiple ways of looking at things. The Red Sox could subscribe to what we’ll call the Billy Beane Theory, which says, roughly, just make the playoffs and whatever happens after that is out of your control. The problem with that is it’s only sort of true. Luck plays a huge role in any small sample of baseball games, but even so, it’s incredibly infrequent that a bad team, or even a team you couldn’t make an argument for as one of the best teams in baseball, wins the World Series. It does happen (2011 Cardinals, 2006 Cardinals), but it’s infrequent at best. And just considering the competition, it seems like a poor bet to make. The other part is one of those 100-win teams is in Boston’s division, and the other two are in the other two divisions, so right off you’re competing with the rest of the American League for the Wild Card.

So perhaps the Red Sox should go out and sign J.D. Martinez and trade for Giancarlo Stanton and do more and more and become another 100-win franchise. The problem with that is where the Red Sox are financially. They managed to stay under the luxury cap in 2017 so the tax rate for going over has now dropped substantially, but there is still a penalty. The luxury tax threshold will be $197 million for 2018 and the Red Sox are at $146 million in guarantees before signing anyone eligible for arbitration. Cutting to the end of the page, Cot’s Contracts estimates the Red Sox to be at $202 million, or $5 million over the cap, before making any additions. For context, the Dodgers spent in the neighborhood of $245 million this season. If the Red Sox are going to go out and give Martinez $20 million and take on Stanton’s contract which will pay him $30 a season going forward, you’re talking about blowing past the Dodgers payroll. Maybe that’s doable for an ownership group that really wants to win another World Series. Maybe the finances are set now that the penalties have been lowered and the team is ready to go all in. Dave Dombrowski is an all-in kind of guy, as we’ve seen. But Pablo Sandoval is making $18.5 million next season and again the season after that. Then, in 2020, there’s a $5 million buyout, but you can take most of those savings and flush them down the nearest toilet because that is also the season that Rusney Castillo’s contract goes from $11 million a season to $14 million. The next is Rick Porcello’s last at $21.125 million per season. That’s a lot of money over a lot of years, and most of it isn’t likely to do much to help the Red Sox on the field.

Bringing on a player of [Stanton’s] caliber means the Red Sox are committing to spending over the luxury tax threshold for the foreseeable future.

Again, here’s that word “maybe.” Maybe the way the Red Sox dealt with Sandoval and, to a lesser but still significant extent, Castillo, is the new way forward. Damn the torpedoes and all of that, but that seems unlikely. It’s not as sexy, granted, but maybe there’s another win in Jackie Bradley’s bat, and two more in Andrew Benintendi if he can avoid an extended midseason slump, and two more in Mookie Betts’ bat while we’re at it, and I couldn’t tell you how many more but a lot more in every part of Xander Bogaerts. Take all that and add a healthy David Price – the guy the organization made a $217 million bet on, remember – and someone tell Rick Porcello to stop throwing belt high 90 mph heaters and before you know it there’s 98, 99, or 100 wins. Maybe.

Would J.D. Martinez help that cause? You better believe it. Would Stanton? A million times over, yes. But what would be the long term impact of bringing one or both or a similar player to Boston? The Red Sox are a New England institution to be sure, but Fenway isn’t growing more seats and NESN can only broadcast 162 games a year. Revenues might go up a bit, but bringing on a player of that caliber means the Red Sox are committing to spending over the luxury tax threshold for the foreseeable future. This of course only gets worse if you want to sign Mookie Betts or Benintendi or Devers to a long term contract.

It’s an extremely tough choice Dave Dombrowski finds himself with. Is it reasonable, or realistic even, to squeeze out seven or eight more wins from this roster that has seemed to peter out at 93 over the past two seasons? That argument can be made. But what is the cost of that not happening? What if this team doesn’t add those wins? What if Price isn’t healthy? What if he is?

The Red Sox are going to spend a lot of money in 2018, that much is for certain. What they get for it is less known. So maybe they should spend more. Or maybe that would sink them. The thing about forks in the road is you have to pick a direction because going straight ahead never works. If he’s not now, Dave Dombrowski is about to become aware of that.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

With all that in mind, I think we should recognize that Farrell was generally pretty decent at his job, especially when compared to others. Not great, but simply good. Everything that went wrong this year and in previous years was not directly Farrell’s fault, and won’t necessarily be corrected by hiring a new manager. Thinking otherwise is not productive. While Red Sox fans (and perhaps even the players, coaches and front office members) hope the next manager is better than Farrell, he could easily be worse. Dave Dombrowski needs to tread carefully as he hires his first manager. All of the blame that Farrell has soaked up the last few years will start to trickle into Dombrowski’s suite if the next manager stumbles.

The discussion about possible candidates for the Red Sox’s managerial vacancy are in full swing. After all, Farrell was fired a whole 24-hours ago. Things move fast. I am sure you have seen lists of names that people feel should be considered. You can even wager your hard earned cash dollars on who it will be. Of course you can. Maybe we should be monitoring Dombrowski’s bookie. Jokes aside, and at the risk of repeating parts of your Twitter feed, here are the names I have seen/heard as suggestions for the Red Sox’s job opening (in no particular order):

That’s 16 names, and I probably missed a name or two that has been floated out there. Interestingly, there appears to be consensus on a few names. As an example, spend an hour on Twitter and it will seem as though Alex Cora already has this job. People (including credible ones) are suggesting Cora is a perfect fit. That is strong. Of course he could be, but it is not at all clear to me what evidence is being used to support this idea. There are certainly nice things being said about Cora, and it is assumed that he embraces the analytical  side of in-game tactics given his time in Houston, but he only has one year of big league coaching experience and hasn’t had to deal with the media. Don’t get me wrong, I am not trying to make a case against Cora – I think he would be a fine manager – nor am I saying that years of major league managing experience and media training are critical attributes. I am just surprised by how quickly and confidently people have jumped to fit Cora for a(nother) Red Sox uniform. If I recall correctly, five years ago, John Farrell seemed like a such a perfect fit that actual major league talent was traded away to acquire him. Now he can’t leave town soon enough.

Five years ago, John Farrell seemed like a such a perfect fit that actual major league talent was traded away to acquire him. Now he can’t leave town soon enough.

Any candidate is going to have a difficult job to do in Boston. An obligatory mention of the tough media market goes here. After getting past the media everyday, the clubhouse has three hard-headed veterans in Dustin Pedroia, David Price, and Chris Sale, and a group of young players (i.e., Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.) who are expected to bounce back from underperformance on offense in 2017 and take on a more defined leadership role. The veterans can make life very hard for a new manager who does things in a way that goes against their preferences, and there is no way any more slippage in performance from the young core is going to be tolerated.

Of course, the young guys could bounce back for no other reason than natural regression, which might push them to be more vocal in the clubhouse and make the new manager look like a genius, so that is a perk. There is also the fact that the Red Sox are a team with money, being run by Dave Dombrowski. He will go get players he wants. Add a Jake Arrieta to the rotation, along with an extra helping of slugging to the lineup (e.g., J.D. Martinez, Carlos Santana, Joey Votto [swoooon]) and you have the makings of an upper-90s win total stew going, and a stronger chance at winning a postseason series or two – or three.

For me, the best candidate will be someone who is: (1) receptive to and implements analytically-driven strategies, (2) a strong and clear communicator, (3) able to work with and respects young players’ development, and (4) humble and admits mistakes. This set of characteristics likely rules out a few names from the table above (i.e., Ausmus, Matheny, Bowa, Gardenhire). But the reality is that none of us know much of anything about the managerial characteristics of most of the guys in the table above. We are just guessing and trying to convince ourselves that our personal preference will be better than Farrell. Chances are, barring another Bobby V-esque disaster, we will be going through a similar exercise again in three-to-five years.

Photo by Shanna Lockwood – USA TODAY Sports

He’s a very Red Sox-y hitter.

You take a look at Travis’ numbers and you see exactly why the Red Sox drafted him. This year, Travis’ BB% (9.4) mirrors the average of the 2017 Red Sox (9.1) almost perfectly. The strikeouts aren’t far off either, with Travis’ K% (17.3) being a hair lower than the 2017 Sox average (19.5). While that’s most likely nothing more than a very convenient coincidence, it highlights the low-strikeout, high-walk plate approach the team has loved so much over the last decade or so.  Here’s a fun fact: every Red Sox player with at least 100 PAs has 1. a higher BB% than league average (8.8) and 2. all but two (Moreland, JBJ) with 100 PAs have a K% below league average. They make contact and see a lot of pitches, two things that Travis has always done well in the minors.

The Red Sox suddenly need first baseman depth.

Suddenly might be the wrong word here, seeing as Hanley Ramirez has played exactly one (1) game at first base this year. Hanley apparently has lingering shoulder issues that prevent him from playing the field, or has just realized that DH-ing is a pretty dope gig. Either way, Mitch Moreland needs to sleep eventually, so this is where we find ourselves. The general consensus seems to be he’ll be the platoon guy the team envisioned Ramirez being, only now we don’t have to sit around and play that awkward game where we pretend we’re waiting for Hanley to be healthy enough to play first again. Everyone’s happier this way.

He could (theoretically) help with the power issues.

Through two months, the 2017 Red Sox have a .141 ISO (26th in MLB), a .408 SLG (20th in MLB) and have hit 38 home runs (29th in MLB). Weirdly enough, though, (like we pointed out earlier this week) the Sox are an hitting the ball at an elite level. Through his three years in the minors, Travis has put up pretty decent power numbers, posting an ISO over .140 (what’s roughly considered an average hitter) each season, and at least once at every level besides Double-A (.136 there, though). He also puts up a SLG in the mid-to-high .400’s along his various minor league stops. Aaron Judge he is not, but the Red Sox could use all the power help they can get.

Photo by Jasen Vinlove – USA TODAY Sports

The hours after the news of the Sale trade broke on Tuesday were predictably filled with Takes, both hot and otherwise. Most of Red Sox Nation – myself included – is thrilled by the prospect of the current Cy Young holder as a number three starter. Remember when this was supposed to be a quiet offseason? It is clear now that a 6-foot-6 asterisk was attached to that proclamation in the shape of Chris Sale.

Much of the national media now has the Sox pegged as the odds-on favorite in the American League. Sports Illustrated and CBSSports’ Jonah Keri (RIP Grantland), opines that the move puts the team in the driver’s seat in the AL. Ben Lindbergh over at The Ringer agrees with his former co-worker. Most all fans and baseball analysts liked the trade for, really, both colors of Sox. Rob Bradford makes the case at WEEI.com that this was the biggest trade in recent Red Sox history. The closest to a negative reaction to the trade, from what I read, was this column by WEEI’s John Tomase fretting about Dave Dombrowski’s notable propensity to empty the prospect war chest in order to achieve the all-important Win Now. Even Tomase’s gripe is more with the totality of Dombrowski’s work, and he acknowledges the boon that is acquiring Chris Sale.

There is a clear and not-hard-to-decipher consensus that the trade makes the Red Sox demonstrably better heading into the 2017 season. And, considering the Nationals on Wednesday traded the White Sox arguably baseball’s top pitching prospect in Lucas Giolito for a guy with ‘Spanky’ in his Twitter handle, the price the Red Sox paid for Sale seems relatively reasonable.

Tuesday saw the Red Sox deal four of the nine top players in the farm system (including Luis Alexander Basabe in the move for Sale and Mauricio Dubon for reliever Tyler Thornburg), per SoxProspects.com. So in a way, Tomase is totally right: the cupboard looks pretty bare. Rafael Devers and 18-year-old Jason Groome are the two remaining genuinely promising (though you may be bullish on some others) players in the minor leagues.

That being said, let’s remember a significant reason for this truth: a lot of former prospects are performing at the Major League level! Andrew Benintendi looked ready to play an everyday role in left field in his limited and injury-interrupted audition late in 2016. Eduardo Rodriguez doesn’t turn 24 until April and posted a 3.24 ERA in 14 starts after returning from Pawtucket in July. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are All-Stars that just turned 24 in October. (Aside: my heart grew three sizes after realizing that Mookie and Xander were born six days apart as I imagined them throwing joint birthday parties. Anyways.)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox are young, are good right now, and just got better right now. As Ben Buchanan lays out for Over the Monster, this trade was the best way for the team to make a move for Sale if they were going to do so; no Jackie Bradley Jr. or Rodriguez or other major league talent was involved. They just took what was a 93-win team and added probably the best non-Clayton Kershaw lefty in the world. That feels pretty good.

Before all that craziness transpired, the Red Sox had made a trade with the Brewers for reliever Tyler Thornburg, who threw 67 innings last year for Milwaukee to the tune of a 2.15 ERA and .940 WHIP. Craig Kimbrel has a very talented new set-up man.

The more minor trade has an array of interesting consequences for the team going forward, both significant and trivial. For one, the trade included Travis Shaw, meaning Ding Dong City either a. needs a new mayor or b. is a mobile municipality of a kind heretofore unknown. Also, the Red Sox sent Mauricio Dubon to the Brewers, breaking the heart of colleague Matt Collins but perhaps more importantly allowing for this magnificent Twitter interaction to occur.

From a baseball standpoint, the combination of the two deals makes clear the team’s commitment to and faith in Pablo Sandoval playing third base next season. As Jason Mastrodonato reports in the Herald, Dombrowski thinks Sandoval is “ready to come back.” And Sandoval seems to be too. In fact, he might even be in the Best Shape Of His Life.

Check out the slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval https://t.co/v0YffLEA9G #RedSox pic.twitter.com/8s6AWWscc8

— ESPNBoston (@ESPNBoston) December 7, 2016

As Alex Speier points out in the Globe, the hefty price for Thornburg reflects the incredibly high cost and value of relievers in today’s climate. Andrew Miller’s postseason messed with some peoples’ heads, apparently. Since Alex published his piece, the Cubs traded noted masher of baseballs and very promising talent Jorge Soler to the Royals for reliever Wade Davis. As I’m writing this, the Yankees just signed Aroldis Chapman for five years and $86 million. So, yeah. Go back in time and train yourself to be a set-up man.

Finally, the Thornburg acquisition closed the door on the possibility of Koji Uehara returning in 2017, Dombrowski said. This is not a shocking development but a sad one nonetheless. Thanks for the memories Koji, we’ll miss you and your logic-defying sinker.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images