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	<title>Boston &#187; David Murphy</title>
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		<title>The Red Sox&#8217;s Outfield Has a Platoon Problem</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/30/dont-overuse-brock-holt-plz/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/30/dont-overuse-brock-holt-plz/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Mar 2016 11:00:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brett Cowett]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chirs Young]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Murphy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jackie Bradley Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mookie Betts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rusney Castillo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3963</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Chris Young and Jackie Bradley Jr. make sense as platoon partners, but Boston's latest outfield timeshare is more questionable. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For now, the Red Sox have five guys they will definitely have roaming the outfield for the coming season. Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Rusney Castillo and Chris Young. At a glance, that seems like a pretty solid unit to roll out there, with dark horse MVP candidate Mookie Betts, defensive wiz JBJ, tools-y Rusney Castillo, the do-everything Holt and Chris Young to bludgeon the hell out of lefty pitchers. You could do much worse. Trust me. I&#8217;ve seen Atlanta&#8217;s outfielder depth chart. That kind of putrid is out there, and these four make up a promising bunch.</p>
<p>Recently, talk has sprung up involving platooning players early on. Normally, I wouldn&#8217;t mind a platoon. The 2013 squad rolled out a Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava duo in left and that worked out spectacularly. This time, however, the Sox might need to rethink a thing or two.</p>
<p>The most obvious thing that can be said about the outfield platoons is that Mookie isn&#8217;t a part of one. Period. If he is, something has gone drastically wrong and we live in a much crueler world that we thought. He&#8217;s too good to need a left-handed counterpart and probably won&#8217;t need one ever, if things go right.</p>
<p>Jackie Bradley Jr. has been the focus of some sporadic platoon talk, and the Sox would pair him with Chris Young. At first, this seems strange, because JBJ went absolutely bonkers when it came to left-handed pitching last year. Just look at this:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=351972483&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>Promising, right? JBJ had one hell of a reverse platoon split against left-handed pitching. He slashed .306/.390/.528 with a .314 TAv against southpaws, and made managers rue the day they brought out a LOOGY against him.</p>
<p>Impressive as that was, that was all buoyed by a sky-high .408 BABIP, and since he was only hitting a line drive roughly 16% of the time, that reverse split doesn&#8217;t seem sustainable whatsoever. Generally, position players who hit grounders six out of ten times don&#8217;t see long-term success. JBJ can still hit right-handed pitchers with power, since a .262 ISO isn&#8217;t anything to scoff at, even with a .221/.308/.483 and a .261 TAv.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s why a Bradley-Young platoon makes sense. Bradley can still hit righties hard, and Young&#8217;s career line against left-handed pitching is a fantastic .278/.365/.495, good for a .313 TAv. It gives JBJ protection against a potential regression and shields Young from right-handed pitchers &#8211; his mortal enemies.</p>
<p>The platoon issue I&#8217;m hinting at starts with Rusney Castillo. Castillo has been pretty lackluster in the majors, and hasn&#8217;t really been able to hit major-league pitching. His defense has been okay, but he would make a poor decision almost every other night, be it a way-too-long route to a fly ball, a bad first step, etc. Sometimes it was worse than that.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=387626583&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>That is some <a href="https://youtu.be/fUtG-fXfKnI" target="_blank">Milton-Bradley-on-the-Cubs</a>-level stuff right there.</p>
<p>As infuriating as that was, I&#8217;m not arguing that Castillo shouldn&#8217;t be platooned, because he probably should be, despite my naïve idea to give him a six-week chance to prove himself. <a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/02/17/what-the-red-sox-need-from-rusney-castillo/" target="_blank">I&#8217;ve already laid out what he has to do to be an improvement</a> over Hanley Ramirez, but I&#8217;ve seen the light: he can&#8217;t hit righties.</p>
<p>Now, be warned, we&#8217;re working with small sample sizes here, but over 227 plate appearances, Castillo has a very underwhelming .231/.271/.329 against RHP. That&#8217;s a .202 TAv. He&#8217;s got a .259 TAv against lefties, and that&#8217;s acceptable for a 100 PA sample, I guess. That&#8217;ll be enough for the side of the platoon that won&#8217;t get the majority of the PAs.</p>
<p>Even though it took a lot of words and videos to get to the meat of what I&#8217;m arguing against, Ian Browne does it in 12 words.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Brock Holt will start season as Red Sox primary LF against righties.</p>
<p>— Ian Browne (@IanMBrowne) <a href="https://twitter.com/IanMBrowne/status/714813034716381184">March 29, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p>There are a couple things here that make this a problem. Firstly, Holt isn&#8217;t exactly proficient against right-handed pitching. Sure, a .270/.329/.363 isn&#8217;t bad by any stretch of the imagination, since you&#8217;re not using Brock Holt for the pop in his stick, but that still comes out to a .246 TAv. It&#8217;s not an optimal situation. Then there&#8217;s the kicker.</p>
<p>Not that Dombrowski and Co. ever read BP Boston (if so: hello!), but I&#8217;ve talked about the <a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/17/roster-recap-another-tale-of-two-halves-for-brock-holt/" target="_blank">overuse of Brock Holt before</a>, and it seems that the Red Sox are really trying to prove that history repeats itself &#8211; by use of their 10th man as the test subject.</p>
<p>Holt is exciting to watch and has a magnetic personality. It&#8217;s a treat to see him do fun, gritty things and play all over the place. But once the All-Star break passes by, he instantly becomes irrelevant. Holt&#8217;s career line in the first half is an impressive .309/.373/.430, but once the Midsummer Classic ends, he drops to a very pedestrian .241/.294/.306. That&#8217;s pretty bad no matter what position he&#8217;s playing.</p>
<p>While Travis Shaw will be able to shoulder the corner infielder workload, Holt is still going to have to be the backup to the middle infielders. It&#8217;s fair to say that Xander Bogaerts won&#8217;t need one very often, but Dustin Pedroia gets his fair share of nicks and dings, and after missing a not nice 69 games last year, you have to expect that he&#8217;ll hit the disabled list again, given his age and play style. Holt is going to be needed in that situation, and working both left field and second base could wear him down.</p>
<blockquote><p>It would be better to use Holt sporadically early on, and then as a positional band-aid in the second half, when the inevitable injury strikes.</p></blockquote>
<p>Common sense suggests that Holt won&#8217;t see all the PAs against right-handed pitching, but the Red Sox won&#8217;t face a left-handed starter in the first half of April. That&#8217;s a lot of playing time for a guy who really shouldn&#8217;t be starting more than three or four days a week, maximum. You&#8217;re practically begging for Holt to have another terrible second half at this point.</p>
<p>What&#8217;s more disappointing is that there were other options &#8211; and Travis Shaw doesn&#8217;t count. Sure, Brennan Boesch&#8217;s wrist exploded and that wiped out any possibility there early-on, but David Murphy would&#8217;ve been a good fit here. He did well enough against right-handed pitching in 2015 to warrant an attempt at a Castillo-Murphy duo, and it was generally in line with his career numbers. His bat was a little bit better than Holt&#8217;s, and it even provided a little more power. This isn&#8217;t to rag on Holt, however &#8211; the goal here was to save him for the stretch run later in the season. It would be better to use Holt sporadically early on, and then as a positional band-aid in the second half, when the inevitable injury strikes.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the Red Sox made the decision to add another relief pitcher to the 25-man roster instead of another bench player, which makes some sense, since no one knows what we&#8217;ll get from the middle of the rotation. Murphy chose to opt out over being a minor league stash, and here we are.</p>
<p>You&#8217;d expect the Red Sox to be more careful with Brock Holt after two consecutive years of second-half burnout. It&#8217;s tough to fault them on wanting a platoon partner for Castillo, but the mistake was making Holt the guy getting the lion&#8217;s share of the left field PAs. Maybe it&#8217;s just me being overprotective and reactionary, but the Red Sox can&#8217;t really afford to lose Holt to whatever ails him in those final two-to-three months. It&#8217;s nice to have a player that&#8217;s versatile and can hit his weight regardless of position, but when you&#8217;re running him into the ground on an annual basis, you&#8217;re misusing your bench player.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s hoping the Red Sox don&#8217;t have to resort to using Josh Rutledge again.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Read Sox: Analytics Arguments, Hanley at First and Two Young Catchers</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/03/read-sox-analytics-arguments-hanley-at-first-and-two-young-catchers/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/03/read-sox-analytics-arguments-hanley-at-first-and-two-young-catchers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Mar 2016 10:30:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris Teeter]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Read Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analytics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blake Swihart]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christian Vazquez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Murphy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Ortiz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Defense]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Henry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strikeouts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Velocity]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3735</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Have you heard? Hanley Ramirez is moving to first base! ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="western"><i>Welcome back to Read Sox. This week we consider John Henry&#8217;s comment</i><i>s</i><i> on the front office&#8217;s </i><i>use of analytics</i><i>, Hanley Ramirez&#8217;s ongoing transition to first base, the potentially underrated signing of David Murphy, the hard-throwing nature of the new pitchers on the roster, the progress of the </i><i>team&#8217;s </i><i>young catchers, and a couple off-the-field </i><i>stories for the</i><i> coming season. </i></p>
<p class="western"><b>Going Deep</b></p>
<p class="western">Back-to-back disappointing seasons will make any leader question their organization&#8217;s process. Red Sox principal owner John Henry did just that and revealed he felt the club had “perhaps overly relied on numbers” when making roster decisions of late. To those who still think jokes about Carmine – the Red Sox&#8217;s statistical database developed under Theo Epstein and Ben Cherington – are funny, Henry&#8217;s words likely rang true and signaled the beginning of a much needed change in philosophy. To those who appreciate what an analytical approach to the game can help bring (e.g., three World Series rings in ten years), the comments sounded like a search to assign blame and, perhaps, an over-reaction to last year&#8217;s disappointment. In any case, Alex Speier of <i>The Boston Globe</i> notes that <span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/02/25/count-this-red-sox-are-not-abandoning-analytics/BZDvOeMrbiJSuVPosBEMJK/story.html" target="_blank">the team is not retreating from statistical analysis</a></span></span></span>. Rather it is actually committing more money to its analytics department but will incorporate a different approach in how that information is weighed when making decisions. That sounds like a perfectly reasonable approach and probably didn&#8217;t necessitate the media firestorm that resulted in the wake of Henry&#8217;s comments. Sure, Dave Dombrowski is known to prefer a greater emphasis on scouting and player development than on statistical analysis. That&#8217;s fine. But finding the ideal (and clearly elusive) balance between the two could lead to another prolonged period of success in Boston.</p>
<p class="western">The second season of the hit show F<i>ind Hanley Ramirez a </i><i>D</i><i>efensive </i><i>P</i><i>osition </i>has started. This season Hanley tackles first base, though to some his move back to the infield arguably comes with more risk than his transition to left field in 2015. Dustin Pedroia reminded Hanley of just how important first base is in <span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="https://twitter.com/Steve_Perrault/status/702652658738401280" target="_blank">an ever so Pedroia way</a></span></span></span>. Hanley has a lot to learn about the nuances of his new position, with limited time to do so. Regardless, Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com reports that the team is <span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2016/02/sox_staff_in_no_hurry_for_ramirez_switch" target="_blank">focusing on slow, simple, incremental progress</a></span></span></span>. Red Sox third base and infield coach Brian Butterfield is the man in charge of transforming Hanley into a competent first baseman. The pace of Butterfield&#8217;s instruction has been planned with a keen awareness of the concerns over Ramirez&#8217;s health. Hanley is coming off a shoulder injury in 2015 that sapped his power at the plate, so the coaching staff is doing their best to avoid re-aggravating it. Despite these precautions, P.J. Wright of Boston.com writes that <span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/2016/02/25/dustin-pedroia-confident-that-hanley-ramirez-can-have-successful-transition-first-base/M4cB7gwOjvn66h24XpCeAO/story.html?p1=stream_sports_baseball_redsox" target="_blank">Pedroia is confident Hanley can make the transition to first base successfully</a></span></span></span>. If he doesn&#8217;t the Red Sox have alternative options in Travis Shaw, prospect Sam Travis, and even (gasp!) Allen Craig, although fitting all the pieces of the puzzle together could prove difficult.</p>
<p class="western"><b>Quick Hits</b></p>
<p class="western">On Monday, the Red Sox agreed to a minor-league contract with outfielder Daniel Murphy. As Alex Speier of <i>The Boston Globe</i> notes, <span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/02/29/why-david-murphy-signing-makes-sense-for-red-sox/l6OzfxgxnD1TgRQo0kZAsI/story.html" target="_blank">this is a smart signing</a></span></span></span> that offers the team solid depth protection against any underperformance from Jackie Bradley Jr. and/or Rusney Castillo.</p>
<p class="western">Hard-throwing, high-strikeout pitchers have been a hallmark of Dave Dombrowski&#8217;s previous teams. The additions of Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith and David Price ensure that the 2016 Red Sox will be no exception to this trend. Brian MacPherson of the <i>Providence Journal</i> <span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20160225/red-sox-have-loaded-up-on-high-octane-pitchers" target="_blank">spoke with each of these pitchers (and others) about the importance of velocity</a></span></span></span> and about how correctly synchronizing pitchers&#8217; body types with the mechanics of their deliveries helps maintain it.</p>
<p class="western">Blake Swihart comes into Spring Training as the likely starting catcher, a considerable advancement on the depth chart from this time last year. This role requires him to take charge of the pitching staff, working as an on-field coach of sorts. Peter Abraham of <i>The Boston Globe</i> writes that <span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/02/28/red-sox-catcher-blake-swihart-ready-pitching-authority/Td2CgYhYZ8mu4HYu7YSVZP/story.html" target="_blank">Swihart had always done well with this aspect of his position in the minor leagues, but had difficulty with it following his early promotion to Boston</a></span></span></span> last season. Swihart&#8217;s comfort grew over the course of last summer, and this spring he is in camp working hard and providing insight to his battery mates.</p>
<p class="western">Swihart&#8217;s catching partner Christian Vazquez is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery, making important steps forward as camp progresses. Last week, Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com noted that <span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2016/02/red_sox_slowing_christian_vazquez_down_but_its_not_a" target="_blank">the Red Sox were slowing Vazquez down</a></span></span></span> in order to take the long, cautious path with his rehab. Then on Monday, Vazquez had an important throwing session that, as Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com reports, <span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/boston-red-sox-catcher-christian-vazquez-feels-great-after-testing-his-arm" target="_blank">went really well</a></span></span></span>. With this sort of continued, methodical progress, Vazquez could start seeing action in Grapefruit League games soon enough.</p>
<p class="western">The 2016 season marks changes not only on the field and in the front office but also in the Red Sox broadcast booths. Dave O&#8217;Brien is moving from radio to join the television side, replacing fan-favorite Don Orsillo. Chad Finn, writing for <i>The Boston Globe, </i><span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/02/27/dave-brien-ready-for-big-change-red-sox-coverage/lBsmcVPVcT1YsYyjGGzH5N/story.html" target="_blank">spoke with O&#8217;Brien about the transition</a></span></span></span>, reminding Red Sox fans that, despite Orsillo&#8217;s departure, they are still in good hands.</p>
<p class="western">David Ortiz is embarking on his last trip through a major league season. Due to his star status, this final campaign will involve a farewell tour of some sort. The exact nature of the Big Papi celebration remains to be seen, but at Boston.com, Chad Finn hopes <span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/2016/02/26/the-perfect-ending-for-david-ortiz-farewell-tour-that-remember-victory-tour/WFQlRAV8ZvOw1yKtcbIM4J/story.html?p1=stream_sports_baseball_redsox" target="_blank">the farewell tour coincides with a victory tour</a></span></span></span>. Ideally, Ortiz will ride a duckboat off into the proverbial sunset.</p>
<p class="western"><em>Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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