Let’s look at a few easy ways to make educated guesses.

Age

We know one of the biggest indicators of player quality is age. Hitters tend to improve before age 27, peak at that point or close to it, and decline after. The good news for the Red Sox is they feature a number of players who are not yet 27. Xander Bogaerts (25), Rafael Devers (21), Mookie Betts (25), and Andrew Benintendi (23) are all starters who figure to improve simply based on what we know about aging curves. That’s almost half of the Red Sox lineup. Further, Jackie Bradley (28) and Christian Vazquez (27) are in their peak seasons. This is good!

Beyond, Mitch Moreland (32), Dustin Pedroia (34), and Hanley Ramirez (34) are all likely to decline in the overall skills department. Thing is, Moreland wasn’t all that spectacular last season so much more than a very gentle decline from him would make him close to unplayable. The same goes for Hanley, though he has bounced up and down in terms of quality throughout his career. What’s more, should Martinez come to Boston, both Moreland’s and Hanley’s roles would be somewhat diminished.

Pedroia is the wild card here, though his age alone indicates we shouldn’t be expecting much more than league average production.

Even so, age gives us an overall positive picture of how the 2018 Red Sox offense could look. Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and perhaps Bradley could all improve, and I think that’s actually relatively likely to happen just based on how their 2017 seasons went as well. That should be more than enough to offset what little production Boston receives from Pedroia, Moreland, and Ramirez.

2018 Projections

PECOTA hasn’t been released yet and I don’t have a copy of the new BP 2018 Annual (which you should definitely buy right this instant) nearby, so regretfully, even though this is BP, we’re going to take a look at FanGraphs. The truth of the matter is, though we like PECOTA around these parts, at this point most projection systems are going to give you roughly the same thing, and that’s all I’m interested in for this exercise: rough estimates.

Going by those same rough estimates, of the Red Sox starting nine, FanGraphs projects seven of the Red Sox to improve, five of which significantly. Only Pedroia and Mitch Moreland are projected to improve only slightly from their 2017 performances. Rafael Devers is projected to perform just as he did last season, only to play a full season’s worth of games, which would be a large upgrade over what the Red Sox have been getting from third basemen over the past half decade or more. Only Christian Vazquez is projected to put up a worse performance.

That roughly matches my expectations for these individual players and it comes close to matching our guesses based simply on player age, which is a factor in the projections as well so there’s admittedly a bit of double counting going on here.

Over/Under Performance

Lastly we can look at how players did last season relative to our expectations. A good proxy for that is the 2017 PECOTA, so let’s look and see how the 2017 Red Sox, our baseline for 2018, did compared to how we expected them to do. I compared the members of the starting lineup’s projected TAv’s to their actual TAv’s. Betts, Benintendi, Hanley, and Bogaerts all came in well below their TAv projections, with Betts and Hanley at their 15th and 10th percentile PECOTA projections for TAv. That’s pretty rough. Bradley and Pedroia were right about where PECOTA pegged them, well, Bradley was a bit worse, but roughly in the vicinity. Only Moreland and Devers beat their projections. Moreland was in the 60th percentile and Devers was in the 95th, which you’d probably expect given he wasn’t supposed to make even a Triple-A roster let alone start for multiple months in the majors.

So this is the part of the article where we try to put some of this information together. Looking at all this, it seems safe to assume a good chunk of the Red Sox starting lineup should be expected, for a variety of reasons, to put up better seasons than they did in 2017. In fact, it’s not just a numerical chunk of the lineup, but the very best players in it, like Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, and Bradley. Devers is a bit of a wild card given his youth, as are Ramirez and Moreland for their ages, and Pedroia for his age and injury history. It’s not hard to see Ramirez turning things around, Pedroia getting healthy and hitting better if not returning to his late-aught MVP form. Similarly, this could be the end of the line for these guys. Sometimes baseball doesn’t let you down gently. Sometimes it smashes you into the concrete. But the smart guess is that both Ramirez and Pedroia have something approximating league average hitting left in them.

Add that to a stronger front of the lineup featuring everyone with a surnamed starting with B, and you’ve got a potentially strong lineup. So, do the Red Sox need J.D. Martinez to improve their offense in 2018? I suspect they don’t. I suspect it will get better simply by running the same team out there again. But in a league where the Astros are World Champs and the Yankees are maybe even better than that, it’s hard not to say, well, heck, get J.D. Martinez anyway. Can’t hurt.

Photo by David Kohl — USA TODAY Sports

For all those teams’ success, there’s a notable local organization lagging behind in terms of hype: the Red Sox. Few people seem to be talking about them right now. It’s been an unusually quiet offseason across the MLB, but perhaps the only Red Sox talking point of note right now is the extended stare-down with free agent J.D. Martinez. After that, it’s… Mitch Moreland’s two-year deal? Yikes.

I’m not used to feeling so unenthused about the Red Sox. They were the team that brought me into Boston sports, after all. In a manner of speaking, I suppose I’m sort of a bandwagon fan, but it wasn’t one of the championship teams that brought me here. No, it was the 2009 team that did that — if you remember, that’s the one that got swept by the Angels in the ALDS.

It was a simple decision: “Maybe I’ll give baseball a shot.” I was in high school, and football wasn’t quite cutting it for me, so I felt it was time to branch out. The Red Sox and Angels were on, and it didn’t take long for me to get hooked. I loved Dustin Pedroia’s fiery demeanor, David Ortiz’s easy confidence, and most of all, Kevin Youkilis’ completely absurd batting stance. Jon Lester’s triumph over lymphoma was incredibly cool, and Josh Beckett looked liable to beat up an opposing hitter at a moment’s notice, which was also pretty cool in its own way.

The season ended too soon after, but it was a busy offseason for me; I needed to learn more about these players, this franchise, this city. I knew about The Curse and the legendary 2004 team that finally ended it. I didn’t know about the comeback against the Yankees, or Kevin Millar’s endless quotability, or Manny’s tendency to always be Manny. I didn’t know they went back and did it again in 2007 with plenty of new faces, including the undefinable Pedroia, the Laser Show and the Muddy Chicken, who I did know was a man after my own heart as soon as I read about his “Ask Jeff Francis who the fuck I am,” quote.

I’m on my ninth year with the Boston Red Sox now, and I’ve seen my fair share of highs and lows, from fried chicken and beer to getting a chance to watch a Boston championship myself. I got to see David Ortiz’s famed postseason heroics live before my eyes, as he was engulfed in flames against the Cardinals and drove the team of beards and Koji Uehara high fives to their third title in ten years. Those 2013 Red Sox rebounded from the worst record in the AL East the year before, which in some ways encapsulates what its been like to follow this team over that time.

If the Red Sox built my Boston fandom, then the Celtics cemented it. My timing wasn’t any better with them — I started following just late enough to miss the dominant 2007-08 championship team. Still, over the next several seasons, I was hooked. The “Big Three” Celtics were a team of dominant personalities — Paul Pierce’s unshakable confidence, Kevin Garnett’s frenzied barking, Ray Allen’s unflappable consistency — and even as they all began to grow old, there was a pridefulness to them. The decrepit Celtics were an annoyance, the team that would give too much effort every night and use their veteran saavy to frustrate younger, more athletic teams. They took LeBron James and the eventual champion Miami Heat to seven games in the 2011-12 Eastern Conference Finals, and it was sort of a last hurrah for the group. LeBron might have buried them, but they went out swinging.

Since the Celtics’ loss to Miami and the Red Sox win over St. Louis the next year, the two franchises have seemed to trend in different directions. The Celtics hit rock bottom in 2013-14, going 25-57 and finishing 12th in the Eastern Conference. They’ve made the playoffs and improved their record in every season since. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been, to some extent, treading water. They’ve posted two losing seasons since the championship, followed by consecutive 93-win campaigns where they never really felt like a legitimate contender.

It feels as though there’s just more of a plan behind the Celtics than the Red Sox. Danny Ainge has spent years meticulously compiling and flipping draft picks, capitalizing on undervalued players, and finding the right opportunities to spend. The two most significant free agent signings in franchise history — Al Horford and Gordon Hayward — came in the past two offseasons. Ainge avoids panic moves and trades from a position of strength as well as any GM in professional sports, to the point where he’s often teased for his reluctance to part with his assets. This past summer, the Celtics passed on a number of potential deals for superstars who changed teams. Paul George was available, but is also on the final year of his contract, likely to bolt for Los Angeles this coming summer. It was a bad bet for Ainge to pay up for a player he couldn’t guarantee he could keep, so he didn’t.

On the flip side, the Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two — Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski. Cherington, though he had his own faults, was more similar to Ainge — building up the farm system and avoiding bad contracts that would kill flexibility… right up until he signed two awful contracts that destroyed his flexibility in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.

The Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two.

Enter Dombrowski, who, to a fault, loves the big splash. Dombrowski was hired in August of 2015, and by November, he’d already shelled out $217 million to David Price and shipped four prospects away in exchange for Craig Kimbrel. That’s not to say these deals were the wrong things to do at the time, but considering Dombrowski’s body of work, it’s a fair critique to say that he often opts to throw money and assets at problems until they go away.

Subsequently, this current offseason isn’t terribly surprising. Dombrowski is locked in a staring contest with J.D. Martinez, who is a player this lineup desperately needs. The Red Sox are starved for power, and previous deals have left the farm system depleted enough to make trades for top-end talent difficult. If Martinez ends up elsewhere, there may not be another move to be made right now.

And in some ways, that’s the point. Danny Ainge didn’t need Paul George. He was building on a team that made the conference finals the year before and months later is sitting in first place in the conference right now, all while sitting on a treasure hoard of draft picks and young talent. He’s a strong, independent GM who don’t need no blockbuster trade. There were dozens of pathways open to the Celtics this past summer, and all Ainge had to do was find the one he liked the best. The one he chose has the Celtics competitive right now without sacrificing virtually any long-term upside.

This kind of result is difficult to achieve without consistency, and, in essence, the Red Sox have been an organizational roller coaster. Cherington took charge and immediately had to address missteps by Theo Epstein, most notably the infamous Carl Crawford contract. Since his departure, Cherington’s carefully cultivated farm system has largely either graduated or been shipped off by Dombrowski. Conversely, Dombrowski has had to struggle with those albatross contracts for Sandoval and Ramirez, the latter of which is still owed $44 million over the next two years, assuming his option vests. They’ve been tying knots and challenging the next guy to unravel them. Is Dave Dombrowski the guy to lead a franchise to sustained, long-term success? Tigers fans of the past three seasons might have some thoughts on the matter.

This is all a long way of saying that, as a fan, the Red Sox don’t give me that feeling of utter confidence the way the Celtics do. Remember the feeling we all had when that large contract for Pablo Sandoval looked likely, even though the case against that signing was obvious? It’s certainly unrealistic to expect any team to operate as efficiently and with as high of a success rate as the Celtics have over the past 10+ years, but there’s an unavoidable aura of “I hope this doesn’t blow up in our faces” in place.

My point is not to predict doom and gloom with the current state of the Red Sox. Far from it. They’re more likely than not to win 90+ games again this season, and they have a collection of young stars like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Rafael Devers that will be anchoring the lineup for years to come. They have two Cy Young winners in their starting rotation, and those guys aren’t even as good as their ace. If you’re going to have problems with your baseball franchise, these are probably the ones to have — it certainly beats being the Derek Jeter-led Marlins.

But following the Red Sox transformed my sports fandom, and not long after that, the Celtics did it again. It’s impossible not to compare the two. I love watching Mookie Betts and Chris Sale, but on the macro level, something’s just fundamentally off with the Red Sox right now, and it’s never more apparent than when the Celtics are on TV. With as much as the team has going for it right now, it’s telling that they’re receiving so little buzz — and that’s without mentioning how the Yankees appear to be rising fast.

I can’t say for sure how good the Red Sox will be this season — too much depends on Martinez’s status, first and foremost. Players like Price, Ramirez, and Pedroia are aging, Chris Sale has two years remaining on his contract, and younger contributors like Betts and Bogaerts are into their arbitration seasons. Jason Groome and Michael Chavis are nice prospects, but even Groome is still a-ways off, and the system around them is thin. Major roster decisions are coming in the next few years, and it’s hard to divine the greater plan in place here — if in fact there is one.

I know the Celtics will be very good, though. They already are, and there isn’t much reason to think they won’t continue to be for years to come. Danny Ainge has put together a well-oiled machine that has missed the playoffs only three times since the 2003-04 season. For a Red Sox franchise in need of some year-to-year consistency and sustained success, looking to their sibling franchise for some ideas might not be the worst idea.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper — USA TODAY Sports

While it may not have been as bad as his infamous 2015 season, the 2017 campaign was not kind to Hanley Ramirez. In the first season since the retirement of David Ortiz, the duty of DH fell to Ramirez. In 2016, Ramirez looked every bit like a player that could step in and give you 80 percent of Ortiz’s thump. The team was relying on Ramirez’s right handed power to carry the offense in the absence of the legendary number 34 — but he did not deliver. Poor performance vs left handed pitching and another injury to his shoulder made it a season to forget.

As we look to 2018, there are as many reasons to think Hanley won’t be on the team to start the year as reasons he will be. Along with his lack of production last year, Ramirez’s contract is another big factor that could keep him from having a roster spot come April. Ramirez is owed $22 million in 2018 with a vesting option for another $22 million in 2019 if he reaches 497 PA. The Red Sox may look to trade him and cover most of the money to free up that space for next year’s free agent bonanza. Conversely, the team could surely use his thump to compete in 2018 and if Ramirez can get back to his 2016 levels of production the team would have no issue paying him and allowing that option to vest.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

This is not the first time in his career that Ramirez’s shoulder has caused him issues, however, he still remained in the lineup for 133 games in 2017. Even while enduring the second worst season of his career Ramirez still provided power to the punch-less Red Sox lineup. He posted an ISO of .188 while clubbing 23 home runs and 24 doubles. He ranked sixth on the team in ISO, second in HR, and fifth in doubles. This is probably more of an indictment on the Red Sox offense than a celebration of Ramirez, however, even performing at a low level, he was still a somewhat useful player.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Going into last season, there was an expectation that Hanley Ramirez would play first base vs lefties, whom he has crushed to the tune of .295 average over the course of his career. In 2016, he was even more amazing than usual, hitting .346 with a .331 ISO against southpaws. Early in the year, it was made apparent that his shoulder injury would not allow him to play the field, and after starting 133 games at first in 2016, he started just 17 last season. Moreover, Ramirez couldn’t hit lefties when he was playing first base or DH — he batted a career-low .179 against them. His overall slash line for the year was a disappointing .242/.320/.429 — far less than was expected and needed. Overall, Ramirez was worth -0.4 fWAR and -0.1 WARP with a .253 TAv, which is just one point better than his .252 mark from 2015.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Ramirez’s struggles in 2017 can either be seen as a blip on the radar, or a harbinger of more terrible play in 2018. Through three years in a Red Sox uniform, we have seen two terrible versions of Ramirez and one very good version. If he can come back from his offseason shoulder procedure healthy, then it would be reasonable to expect the 34-year-old veteran to bounce back. Heck, it might even be reasonable to expect him to play first base on occasion considering he only made four errors at the position in 2016. This takes a considerable amount of optimism for a player whose health and effort level have been worth questioning over his career. But I don’t see the glass half full.

If you’re a half empty person like myself, you look at his age, chronic shoulder issues, and his declining Z-contact rate (which was a career low 85.8% last season) as sure markers of decline. Dombrowski has recently made one thing clear — he won’t be comfortable with Ramirez as his primary first base option. Signing Mitch Moreland provides the team with a defensively capable anchor in the corner. Having a reliable glove is of the utmost importance to a team with a young and error prone left side of the infield. It makes the most sense for the team to sign J.D. Martinez and let another team gamble on a Ramirez bounce back. The team has far too much riding on 2018 to risk such an important spot in the lineup on Ramirez at this point in his career, and should pay someone else to make sure they do not have to worry about his contract in 2019.

Photo by Bob DeChiara — USA TODAY Sports

You may not recognize the date as having great significance in Red Sox history, but it does. It had nothing to do with what happened on the field that day, as the Red Sox were off, traveling between Kansas City and Boston ahead of a three-game series with the San Diego Padres. Instead it was a phone call placed by the Red Sox, specifically by GM Theo Epstein and Scouting Director David Chadd, that had lasting importance. Specifically, it was a call to alert the rest of Major League Baseball that with their first pick in the 2004 draft, the Boston Red Sox were selecting a shortstop from Arizona State University named Dustin Pedroia.

There was a buzz about Pedroia from the moment he was drafted. It’s possibly because Pedroia was the Red Sox’s first pick, and the first Red Sox pick is always of some consequence, at least initially. But it bears noting that Pedroia wasn’t a first round draft pick. The Red Sox had lost their first rounder when they signed free agent Keith Foulke from Oakland. Pedroia was the 65th player chosen in that draft, but despite that, he has turned into one of the best.

It’s a miracle Pedroia was even available in the middle of the second round. There were 64 players picked ahead of him, which means there were 64 chances for other teams to pick him. The White Sox, amazingly, had five selections before the Red Sox took Pedroia 65th overall. They took not Dustin Pedroia, not Dustin Pedroia, not Dustin Pedroia, not Dustin Pedroia, and not Dustin Pedroia, all of which were wrong.

Sort the entire ’04 draft by Baseball-Reference WAR and the first listed is Justin Verlander (56.6). Second in the entire draft is Pedroia at 52.2. That’s really close! It should be noted that the difference between the two players is larger by FanGraphs WAR (Verlander by 8.5) and much larger by our WARP (30.2), but even so, the Red Sox got the second-best player in the draft and likely the best position player available with a pick that is usually early in the third round.

Mostly all the above is abstract. Pedroia hasn’t been abstract. He’s been concrete, a foundational element in the Red Sox lineup since conquering the minor leagues for good in 2006. In 2007, Pedroia was installed by manager Terry Francona as the team’s regular second baseman coming out of spring training. Pedroia rewarded that faith by hitting .182/.308/.236. Famously, Francona refused to remove him from his starting spot. On May 3rd, Pedroia had a hit and a walk against Seattle. On May 5th, Pedroia had two hits and a walk against the Twins. May 6th? He had three hits, including two doubles against Minnesota. Two more hits followed on May 8th, and two more followed that on May 9. From that day forward, Pedroia has been the Red Sox’s second baseman.

He went on to win the American League Rookie of the Year award that season and, more importantly, help the Red Sox to their second World Series title in four seasons by hitting .283/.348/.483 throughout the playoffs. Pedroia collected three hits including a homer and five RBIs in the Red Sox win in Game Seven of the ALCS against Cleveland, and then in the first game of the World Series, on the second pitch he saw, he homered again. The Red Sox never trailed during that entire World Series. The next season, Pedroia won the American League MVP award and made the All-Star team. Since then, he’s made three more All-Star teams, finished in the top ten for the MVP twice, and has won numerous Gold Gloves which, contrary to most Gold Glove wins, were deserved.

It’s difficult to come up with great individual plays that define Pedroia’s career. There have been perhaps too many to count. There was the time Pedroia backed up a throw that got by first base and threw out the runner as he returned to first base. There were the billion times the ball should’ve rolled into right field only to be stopped by a diving Pedroia’s glove and turned into an out by a throw from the knees. There was the time Pedroia hurt his foot and took fielding practice from his knees. Mostly though there was that swing, that huge, massive, outsized gash of a swing from a guy who was smaller than you. But it was that swing that punched balls to right field in important spots, that lined balls into the gap that turned into doubles as Pedroia threw himself into second base as much with his arms as his legs. There isn’t anyone’s stance or throwing style or swing that stands out in my mind as much as Dustin Pedroia’s.

At 34, with all his accomplishments to date, it’s appropriate to wonder about his Hall of Fame chances. He’ll be in the Red Sox Hall of Fame for certain, but to date, he’s slightly short of the requirements of the one in Cooperstown. By Jay Jaffe’s excellent JAWS metric, Pedroia is short of the total of the average Hall of Fame second baseman by a bit. If he’s able to have a productive sunset to his career he’ll hit those marks, but we’re already seeing the injuries creep in.

Which brings me to this. It may have dawned on you that you are reading a Dustin Pedroia retrospective piece, and you are right. Why, you may ask, am I reading a Dustin Pedroia retrospective piece when the man will only be 34 next season and is signed through 2021? The reason is this: Pedroia underwent knee surgery this week, and it was a particularly serious form of surgery. 34 years old may not be old for you or me, but for a second baseman it’s pretty ancient, and second basemen – and really baseball players in general – need both knees to function well in order to be good at their jobs. What’s more is that this is Pedroia’s second surgery on this particular knee. Perhaps this one will do the trick and the man will be pain-free and return to his peak prime years, but given his age and medical history, that seems unlikely. Odds are this is the beginning of the end of Dustin Pedroia as the Red Sox’s second baseman.

This isn’t the end of Pedroia on the Red Sox, so those articles can be saved for later, fortunately. But this surgery, and the fact that it will assuredly keep Pedroia out through May of next season, is a wakeup call for those of us who have grown accustomed to Pedroia’s presence in the lineup. It won’t be forever. It wasn’t for David Ortiz, and it won’t be for Pedroia. However in this case, in contrast to Ortiz, Pedroia has spent his entire career in Boston with the Red Sox. He’s a two-time World Series champion, an MVP, a multiple-time Gold Glove winner and All-Star. Pedroia is, as much as any player can be, Mr. Red Sox, and our time with him is winding down. That’s the way these things work, of course, but rather than remember Pedroia after he’s gone, let’s appreciate him while he’s still here.

Photo by Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports

Hello! Welcome! I promised you good news so here it is: the Red Sox need good power hitters and (this is it!) there are two huge power threats available on the market in Giancarlo Stanton and J.D. Martinez. Both guys would look fantastic hitting fourth in Boston’s order next season. The bad news is both are bound to be expensive to acquire. But considering both Stanton and Martinez are exactly what the 2017 Red Sox lacked in their lineup, let’s skip the logistics and go right to the fun part: which player should the team target?

Stanton is perceived to be the truer talent of the two with Martinez a later arrival to the top tier of power hitters. It’s true Stanton has elite power, on par with any player in the game. He’s slugged over .600 three times and hit 34, 37, 37, and this season, 59 homers. Martinez doesn’t have quite that level of pop with his only .600 slugging percentage coming this season. However, it was .690, a level Stanton has never reached before.

So this is interesting. Sticking with slugging percentage, Martinez had the higher slugging percentage this season. How about over the last two seasons though? Probably Stanton, right? Nope, Martinez, .610 to .573. How about over the past three seasons? There Martinez isn’t the leader because they’re tied at .580 apiece. Over the past four seasons Martinez is ahead by one single point .574 to .573. I was surprised by this!

Of course, slugging percentage isn’t everything. Home runs aren’t everything either but they count for a lot and Stanton has many more than Martinez, over the past year, the past two, or what ever time frame you want to pick. Martinez has more doubles and triples which is why his slugging percentage is on par with Stanton’s.

If you want to evaluate offense though BP’s stat Total Average (TAv) is a far better barometer of overall performance, and there Stanton beats Martinez every season going back. Sometimes it’s close, sometimes not, but Stanton has always been the superior hitter. As far as the rest of baseball goes, i.e. defense and base running, WARP has you covered. There Stanton’s numbers dwarf Martinez for the simple reason that Stanton is a serviceable right fielder while Martinez is a butcher (according to the numbers) who murders plays in the dead of night with a fork. It’s unclear how applicable that would be though, as were he to come to Boston, Martinez might be the left fielder, and maybe playing the smallest outfield spot in the majors half the time would blunt the negativity of his defense, but he also might fit better at DH with some time at first base. Look at me getting into the weeds when I said I wouldn’t.

There are two things that stand out about Stanton though when compared to Martinez. Firstly, he’s younger. Stanton just finished his age-27 season while Martinez just completed his age-29. Those are two prime years Stanton has over Martinez, which are very valuable. According to what we know about player aging, Stanton should continue at roughly this talent level for the next season or two before declining while Martinez’s decline starts next season.

Second is health. Stanton has a reputation as a player who has been hit with a bunch of injuries, and he has. He’s only played 145 games in a season three times in his eight years, though he was brought up to the majors in June of his age-20 season and played 100 games that year. So if we’re being fair, Stanton has remained mostly healthy four out of his eight seasons. Martinez though has been about as healthy as Stanton. Over the past two seasons Martinez has played 120 and 119 games, and four seasons ago, his first in Detroit, he managed just 123 games. Over the past four seasons, the seasons in which he was an outstanding hitter, Martinez has played in just 23 more games than Stanton.

In the end, Stanton has been the superior player, both at the plate and in the field, and likely will be in the future as well given their respective ages. Where things get debatable is when you start comparing the cost to acquire them. Martinez is a free agent and as he was traded mid-season, he isn’t eligible to receive a qualifying offer, meaning signing him won’t cost a draft pick. If the Red Sox get Martinez, they will have sacrificed only money.

Stanton has been the superior player, and likely will be in the future as well given their respective ages. Where things get debatable is when you start comparing the cost to acquire them.

Stanton is different. He will cost money, lots and lots of money, but he will cost players, too. Stanton will make $77 million over the next three seasons at which time he’ll have the opportunity to opt out. If he doesn’t, the team will be on the hook for another seven seasons for $208 million. That’s fine if Stanton is a huge power threat and a five-to-six win player most seasons. (It’ll look even more fine after Bryce Harper and Manny Machado hit free agency following the 2018 season.) Still though, the overall cost of acquiring Stanton from the Marlins for presumably good players and/or prospects – in addition to taking on almost $300 million in future salary obligations – is massive, and far greater than what it will cost to sign Martinez. The Red Sox have prospects to trade, but does the difference between Stanton and Martinez justify giving them up?

Stanton may be the potential Hall of Fame hitter in his prime, but Martinez is pretty good, too. The Red Sox have a choice to make. They can’t really go wrong with either as far as their 2018 lineup is concerned. As is usually the case though, things are far more complicated than that.

Photo by Matt Kartozian – USA TODAY Sports

Answer: Three different answers.

• Answer 1: The Bullpen Stepped Up

No matter which stat you pick, the Red Sox bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this season. They’re second in ERA, fifth in strikeout percentage, sixth in walk percentage, fourth in FIP, and tied for fourth in xFIP. They’re quite good. So in that sense they don’t have that far to go to be the best. The Red Sox saw last year what a smartly deployed bullpen can do in the post-season when former Red Sox manager and national treasure Terry Francona used Cleveland’s bullpen to help author a series sweep, and they can author their own version of it.

As good as the pen was during the regular season, the good news for the Red Sox is it can get even better during the postseason. Adding David Price and likely Eduardo Rodriguez (or possibly Rick Porcello) to the bullpen can provide the Red Sox multiple quality innings when necessary. Alternatively, a pitcher like Price could represent a real one inning weapon out of the pen, freeing up Addison Reed to be used to put out fires earlier in the game. That’s all before we get to the main strength of Boston’s pen in Craig Kimbrel. We saw Kimbrel throw extended outings during the regular season and once the postseason rolls around those type of outings will likely become the norm. Imagine games where the Red Sox get seven innings out of Chris Sale, then face either Reed or Price, and then Kimbrel. Where’s the opening for an opposing offense in that?

Boston may not score a lot of runs so most of the games are likely to be close, but the Red Sox can win because their starting rotation successfully gets through the lineup twice and their bullpen eliminates any scoring after that.

[cue duck boats]

/scene

• Answer 2: Starting Pitching Started Strong

In the postseason, the best players are often magnified. Think Madison Bumgarner for the Giants or, last season, Andrew Miller for the Indians. The Red Sox best player this season is Chris Sale so the burden of greatness naturally falls upon him. Sale represents the chance to win multiple games with minimal help during each round of the playoffs. He could even emerge from the bullpen on multiple occasions in between starts as well. Beyond Sale, the Red Sox can get effective innings from Drew Pomeranz, Doug Fister, and either Porcello or Rodriguez. When starters go deep into games, that means the bullpen is rested and that means the manager has the ability to use only his best relievers for a higher percentage of relief innings.

• Answer 3: Someone in the lineup turned into David Ortiz

Most of you probably remember the 2013 World Series and at least one of its salient details, such as the Red Sox winning. What you might not remember is the offense was putrid. The Red Sox could not hit during much of that postseason and especially so once in the World Series. Through six games, the team as a whole hit .169/.225/.309. How is it possible to win a seven game series – ANY seven game series! – at all, let alone in six games, while hitting (yes I’m going to write it again so please remove all impressionable children and adults with heart conditions from the room) .169/.225/.309?

Well, the Red Sox didn’t actually hit quite that badly. I left one player out. That slash line is how the Red Sox hit without David Ortiz. With Ortiz the Red Sox hit .211/.291/.330. That’s still bad, but it’s a significant jump from the previous slash line. You get a big jump like that when someone hits .688/.760/1.188. Yes, Ortiz was getting on base 76 percent of the time and averaging over a full base per at-bat during the World Series. Insane. Look at Ortiz’s slash line again. That’s what carrying a team looks like when you express it numerically.

For the Red Sox to win, they need someone to do something huge, like that, to start and finish rallies virtually every time up. David Ortiz isn’t around anymore so we need a new guy to carry the team. I nominate Mookie Betts. Betts has had a rough couple months at the plate, but every once in a while he shows flashes of the tremendous talent we all know is still in there. Like Tuesday when Betts went 3-for-5 with two homers and a triple. Unfortunately he followed that day up with an 0-for-3 (with one walk) the next night. Carrying a team is tough work. There’s a reason David Ortiz is David Ortiz.

As a matter of record, the other guy who might just turn it on all at once is Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez has put together stretches like Ortiz’s before in his career even if they haven’t been in the postseason or even this season.

* * *

The good thing for this year’s Red Sox is there are few if any prerequisites for winning the World Series. You needn’t be the best team in baseball (2006 Cardinals) or even in your division (2004 Red Sox) to win it all. Teams have won championships primarily through the power of their starting pitching (2014 San Francisco Giants), they’ve won with an unhittable bullpen (2015 Kansas City Royals), or they’ve been crazy clutch (2011 St. Louis Cardinals). We’ve seen teams win with defense, smart managing, timely hitting, and on and on. It doesn’t hurt to be the best team in baseball, to have the best hitter, pitcher, manager, or whatever, but it sure isn’t required. The Red Sox aren’t the best team in baseball in 2017, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t walk away with the trophy. Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrel, Mookie Betts, and rest of the team will have their chance to see to that soon enough.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

It is hard to put numbers to this, admittedly. Watching the team though, you got a sense there was something missing. Not just Ortiz the man, but the team was missing something vital, the keystone to a bridge or the top of a pyramid. Initially I expected Dustin Pedroia to take over that role from Ortiz and Pedroia has to some extent. However, there is still something missing. Maybe it’s because Pedroia hasn’t had the MVP-type season this year, or because he’s struggled with injuries, or simply because, through no fault of his own, Pedroia isn’t Ortiz. Whatever it is, the star power on the field and the will to win that Ortiz exerted haven’t been there.

Teams can win without “star power” and winning clubhouses are happy clubhouses, usually in that order. But having watched this team all year long, there has been something missing. It’s like a decent chili that doesn’t have that kick.

I know this probably sounds like some hocus-pocus-y crap. Teams can win without “star power” and winning clubhouses are happy clubhouses, usually in that order. But having watched this team all year long, there has been something missing. It’s like a decent chili that doesn’t have that kick. Or a car that looks good and runs fine, but there isn’t any extra when you really put the pedal down. I know this kind of analysis is maybe more suited for the mainstream media than Baseball Prospectus, or even your high school cousin’s Red Sox blogspot page. And yet I can’t shake this thought: it isn’t a coincidence that the Red Sox came back in the ninth inning Wednesday, on a night when Xander Bogaerts homered and Mookie Betts had three hits.

Those have been rare events especially lately this season. Bogaerts hit 21 homers last season. He has seven now and his slugging percentage is down 40 points from last season. Betts has been fine overall. His WAR numbers look good because he’s a fantastic baserunner and an exquisite fielder. But offensively he’s taken a couple steps back from last year. The on-base is down 20 points and the power is down 80 points.

There are reasons for those downturns in performance, of course. Bogaerts has been dealing with injuries, playing through them because the team needed him on the field, even though his performance suffered for it. Betts has been healthy (as far as we know) but pitchers have been beating him to death with sliders and he’s worked himself into some bad habits. It’s not a coincidence that the Red Sox had their worst month in July (they went 13-14), with Bogaerts hitting .163/.227/.225 and Betts hitting .243/.313/.383.

The Red Sox have gone 11-2 in August which you could say kinda blows my argument that the Red Sox are now Mookie and Xander’s team out of the water, because neither guy has done much beyond mere adequacy since the calendar flipped. But the point isn’t that Mookie and Xander won those 11 games by themselves. It’s not that they did anything to win those games at all. It’s that if this Red Sox team is going to do anything special, anything worth remembering, it’s going to be with those two driving the bus.

And that’s not just 2017. It goes for the next few seasons as well. Despite protestations to the contrary, the 2018 Red Sox aren’t likely to feature Giancarlo Stanton, or for that matter, Manny Machado or Mike Trout. Stanton ain’t coming through that door, people. And while it would be exciting, in the end it isn’t necessary if Mookie and Xander play like the superstars they can be. Betts doesn’t have to finish second in the MVP and Xander doesn’t have to have hit 21 homers every season, but for this iteration of the Red Sox to do anything, those two have to be the David Ortiz. They have to stand up and deliver. They have to bring it when it needs to be brought.

Which brings us back to the ninth inning against St. Louis two nights ago. Down 4-2 with Xander up, Red Sox fans were hoping for an infield single. Maybe a pop-up down the line that falls in. Something lucky needs to happen because Xander simply hasn’t been hitting the ball hard. And then he did! And it went over the monster! That was…unexpected. I’m not sure that ball is out at any other ballpark, and I wouldn’t claim he got all of it (it may have gone higher than it did far) but I’ll be damned if it didn’t count either way. That at-bat was the best possible outcome, both for that night and the future.

Then, down a run with two outs and runners on first and second, Mookie Betts came up. Mookie’s clutch stats are all over the map this year, which makes sense given what we know about clutchness. With two outs and runners in scoring position he has a .972 OPS (good). In late and close situations (defined by Baseball Reference) he has a .745 OPS (bad). This situation was late and close and there were two outs and a runner in scoring position (???). And Mookie lined one off the wall scoring two runs for the win. Huge. Simply huge.

Look, I know the ball he hit wasn’t scorched and I know it was a slider that didn’t slide, but like Xander, Mookie hit it hard enough. Performing when you don’t have your best stuff isn’t always pretty, but both guys made it happen on Wednesday when the team needed them to the most.

The 2017 season has yet to fully unfold, but what we do know now is that this Red Sox team needs both Mookie and Xander if they’re going to win the division and make noise in the playoffs. But I’d argue their contribution to the Red Sox is bigger than that, just like that of Ortiz before them and Pedro before him. This team for the next few seasons will be defined by the successes and failures of Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts. Other players will come and go and make impacts (good and bad) while they are here, but this Red Sox team belongs to and depends on Betts and Bogaerts. That was never more clear than Wednesday night, when, lit by Fenway’s lights and scored by its crowd, Mookie stood center stage, arms outstretched and beaming in a shower of red Gatorade. It’s good to have a king again. It’s even better to have two.

Photo by David Butler II – USA TODAY Sports

One thing that makes the Red Sox media unique is the collective focus on specific players, as in specific players who don’t play for the Red Sox. You may recall the obsession, years before he ever became a Red Sox, of Adrian Gonzalez. It was like the Globe, the Herald, Over The Monster, fans all over New England, and everybody in Red Sox nation pretty much went, “We HAVE to get that guy.” For a while that same kinda it’ll-happen-eventually focus was directed at Giancarlo Stanton as well. It made sense because Stanton fit a similar mold. Both players were/are fantastic. But both were, at the time, under-paid, young superstars on garbage teams going nowhere, and both filled big holes on the Red Sox. The obsession with Stanton ended about three years ago though. In fact, I can pinpoint the day. It was November 19, 2014, the day the Marlins gave Stanton a 13 year, $325 million contract and that pretty much stopped the articles and the drooling on talk radio. Stanton was staying in Miami. Drat.

At the same time in Boston, the Red Sox assembled one of the best young outfields in baseball. Jackie Bradley and Mookie Betts have been joined by Andrew Benintendi and, [counts] one-two-three, that’s a full outfield. So, sadly, that closes the door to acquiring Stanton and his beautiful, prodigious home run swing on both sides.

But [grabs crowbar] how about we jerk that sucker back open again, eh? Yes, this is one of THOSE columns, the kind you thought you were done with, the kind that basically says over and over and over in 20 different ways why and how the Red Sox should/could trade for Giancarlo Stanton. Again, I’m sorry, but you know I gotta beat Brisbee on this, so no time like the present!

A couple of things have happened that have shoved this old door back open again. The first is that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has decided he’s sufficiently ruined baseball in south Florida and it’s time to move on to ruining other stuff. Lollipops, perhaps, or love seats. Maybe goats. Who knows what is next project will be or how he will ruin it, but that’s outside the purview of this column. What inside the purview of this column is that Loria, the guy who signed off on Stanton’s massive contract and who has a violent hatred of lollipops and medium sized living room furniture, is headed out the door, and getting the huge financial commitment to Stanton off the Marlins’ books might help facilitate a sale.

Stanton is only in year three of his deal but the Marlins are, again, terrible. Since Stanton signed the deal amidst much fanfare and promises from the top brass (read: Loria) that the Marlins would do their damnedest to be competitive, the team has gone 203-233, and there’s no particular reason to think things will get much better any time soon. So the Marlins would probably like to deal Stanton and Stanton might not mind being traded away, depending on where he was headed.

Stanton hit his 39th homer Thursday night, a number which leads the league. Stanton, by himself, has 35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team.

At first glance though, you might not think the Red Sox would be a team that would need Stanton. Boston’s outfield is full, you remember, with very good young players. Let’s get back to the outfield though. First, this: David Ortiz retired after the 2016 season. That 2016 team hit 208 homers, good for ninth in baseball. This season the Red Sox have had a much harder time hitting the ball over the wall. As of this writing they have 116 long balls, good for 27th in baseball. They need someone to hit some damn dingers. Stanton hit his 39th homer Thursday night, a number which leads the league. Stanton, by himself, has 35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team. I’m going to write that sentence again. Stanton, by himself, has 35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team.

Stanton isn’t just a home run hitter though. He walks, he hits doubles and singles, and he gets on base (.369 this season). He’s the middle of the order guy the Red Sox had for 14 years in Boston, but don’t have anymore. Bluntly, he’s what this lineup lacks.

Of course, every team wants Stanton, but that’s the thing because now that he’s not making the league minimum anymore, not every team can take him. Now teams must find a way to deal with his salary and that’s not something most teams can handle doing. But the Red Sox can.

Here’s the secret though. Right now Stanton’s deal is an albatross, a massive hit that most teams just can’t afford. But really, secretly, it isn’t! In two years, players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will reach the free agent market and what they get will dwarf the $32 million Stanton will earn in the most expensive seasons of his deal. Last off-season free agents made about $8 million a win. In a year it’ll be more. It keeps going up, and when Harper and the rest reach free agency, we’ll likely be talking about even more. At this rate Stanton will reach about six wins in 2017. At $32 million, that’s $5.3 million a win. Of course Stanton isn’t making $32 million this year and he won’t make that next year either. He won’t make that much until 2023 when wins will probably we worth about $32 million a piece on the market.

Stanton might not reach six wins each season (this would be the third time in six full seasons he’s done it) and he’s had some injury issues so the team would have to believe he could stay healthy. But Stanton will be just 28 next season. The potential for a middle-of-the-order bat for the next decade and at prices below those on the free agent market is there. Or, if Harper and Machado truly break the bank in two off-seasons, perhaps Stanton opts out of his deal and the Red Sox get him for just the three years and $77 million between now and then. That is not bad and you have to think that, given the structure of the deal (small money before the opt-out, huge money after), that’s exactly what Loria was banking on happening.

Where would Stanton fit on the Red Sox and how much would it take to get him? Easy question and hard question. Easy question: anywhere he wants! Stanton is 27 and he’s an outfielder so he’d fit in the outfield, either left or right field depending (hopefully left). But there’s no room in the Red Sox outfield, right? Well (harder question) trading for Stanton will cost something so it would make sense for Boston to deal one of their starting outfielders for him. Clearly it wouldn’t be Mookie Betts, but depending on the financial situation (i.e. how much money Miami pays of Stanton’s deal, if any) it might make sense to deal either Benintendi (I know, I know) or, more likely, Jackie Bradley with Benintendi going to right field and Betts moving to center. The Red Sox don’t seem to be all in on Bradley despite his amazing defense and occasional MVP impressions at the plate so perhaps that’s a good starting point.

It would be a complicated deal, what with all Stanton’s money, Stanton’s no-trade clause, and the uncertainty of his opt-out following the 2020 season. It’s all very complex and honestly I have no idea how to sort it all out. I just know that the Marlins would love to be rid of Stanton’s money, Stanton would probably love to be on a winning team, and the Red Sox would love to have someone step into the middle of their lineup and fill the David Ortiz-sized hole there. That’s a lot of incentive to make something happen. I’ll let the professionals work it out from there. First though, let me turn on this old rusty Stanton Signal (Chad Finn will be busting through that door any second now) and email Grant Brisbee that he’s gonna have to come up with another topic for Monday.

Photo by Jerome Miron – USA TODAY Sports

But who is the culprit? Matthew Kory took a look at Boston’s low power trends in April and noted the losses of both David Ortiz and Travis Shaw, two productive power bats. He also brought up the early season flu bug that went through the Red Sox clubhouse and impacted some power producers. It was tough to grab a large enough sample in April to conclude that the Red Sox simply didn’t hit for much power anymore. But 95 games into the season, that notion is coming into fruition.

The logical assumption would blame Boston’s power drop off on the losses of Ortiz and Shaw, who combined for 54 homers in 2016. But if we take a look at Boston’s consistent starting hitters from both 2016 and 2017, the decline in individual power numbers is evident.

As shown above, this group of players is underperforming this season against its 2016 ISO averages. Mookie Betts is on track to almost exactly match his 2016 home run total, while Hanley Ramirez is set to fall a couple of homers short. Bradley missed 12 games earlier this season, setting him back a bit, but PECOTA projects him to finish six homers shy of his 2016 total.

That trio doesn’t pop off the page as power letdowns, but Boston’s middle infield pair has sharply declined its power output. Neither Pedroia nor Bogaerts have come close to amounting to even a third of their respective 2016 home run totals. I took a look at some Statcast data to see if something has changed.

Pedroia is an interesting case, because his fly ball rate has actually risen from 26.8 percent in 2016 to 31.3 percent this season. But his infield fly ball percentage has seen a corresponding uptick. As evident above, Pedroia was hitting many more line drives in 2016. The ultimate killer is his HR/FB rate, which has split in half this season. The downfall of Pedroia’s HR/FB ratio translates over to Xander Bogaerts’ batted ball data as well. His ratio is down from 11.4 percent in 2016 to 7.4 percent in 2017.

Bogaerts is loading up on ground balls, which accumulate nearly 50 percent of his batted balls. His fly ball rate is down five percent from 2016, and his hard contact rate is hovering just around 30 percent. That being said, Bogaerts and Pedroia still hold batting averages around .300 and TAv’s around .280. After all, in scouring the leaderboards, both players land among the top 15 singles hitters.

Overall, the combination of individual numbers from Boston’s core and the loss of two power producers leads to an intriguing case. The Red Sox have enough weapons on offense to produce MLB’s eighth best VORP (186.6), but they can’t seem to put the ball over the fence.

Another interesting point is the factor of Fenway Park, a widely recognized bandbox for both righties and lefties. Baseball Prospectus runs a stat called Ballpark Factor (BPF), which is centered around 100, with numbers above and below representing the percentage that run-scoring was increased by the mix of parks a team has batted in. The Red Sox consistently rank in the top 10 of this list. In 2016, Boston ranked first with a 112 BPF. This season, they rank 16th with a 100 BPF, which notes that the Red Sox’s run production hasn’t increased nor decreased because they play at Fenway.

The lack of power hasn’t killed them to this point, but come playoff time, the Sox will inevitably be facing better pitching. Time will tell whether Boston can turn around its power numbers, but a new third baseman would almost certainly lead the Red Sox in that direction.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

Ortiz’s 34 will be the tenth number retired by the organization; tied with the Braves, Dodgers, Reds, and White Sox for the third-most numbers retired. The Yankees lead the way with 22 retired numbers. Ortiz’s number retirement will be the soonest the organization has retired a number following the player’s career. We haven’t even gone one full season without Big Papi taking hacks in his red socks, and not a day goes by without mention of how much the offense misses him. I don’t mean to insinuate that the team should wait some pre-determined (and mostly arbitrary) period of time following the player’s time in the game, I just think the quick turnaround for Ortiz is interesting. In any case, the honor Ortiz is set to receive led me down a rabbit hole of uniform number exploration (thanks Baseball Reference!), and got me thinking about other numbers the Red Sox organization could (or should) retire.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the distribution of numbers worn by Red Sox players follows pretty closely with that of the league. The high-teens through the thirties are most popular, and few players wear anything above 50, and most above 65 are one-offs for call-ups and eventually get changed or recycled. Number 28 has been worn by 56 different Red Sox players, which is the most. Oddly enough, should 28 ever get posted up next to Yaz, Teddy and the other fellas in right field, Doug Mirabelli is the player who probably has the strongest claim to it being his honor; he was mostly a personal catcher, but I suppose the team did commandeer local police to help get him to the ballpark that one time, so he must have been special. The next most worn numbers are 15 and 19, each of which have been worn by 54 players, although for 15 it seems like a decent bet that total will stop increasing given the current owner’s place in team lore. More on that in a bit. There are a bunch of numbers that have yet to be worn by a Red Sox player: 0, 69 (leading a whole bunch of people on Twitter to exclaim ‘not-nice’; but don’t worry, some have worn it), 74, 75, 79, 80, 86-90, 92, 93, and 95-99.

Of all these uniform numbers worn by Red Sox players are there any that have (at least) an (moderately) interesting case for retirement? I think there are a couple that have a real shot, and a few that are fun to discuss. To be clear, I am not suggesting that all (or necessarily any) of the numbers discussed below should get retired, just that there is a discussion to be had for some of them and if they did get retired these are the players who should draw the honor. There are a few numbers where there is an obvious choice, one where there is a tossup between two players, a few intriguing “What ifs”, and of course some ambitious projections from the current team.

The Clear-Cut Options

5, 15, 20, 23, 33, and 49. Who comes to mind as you pass through that list? Was it Nomar Garciaparra, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Luis Tiant, Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield? If not, then we disagree. For me, these guys are the clear options for their numbers. Nomar was the face of the franchise during the initial years of the recent two-decades-long run of success and is arguably the best shortstop the team has ever had. As I mentioned above, I think there is a chance that number 15 ends with Dustin Pedroia. He has spent his entire career with the organization, during which he has won a Rookie-of-the-Year and MVP award, two World Series Championships, always been in the discussion as one of the five-best second baseman in the game, and, if his career ended tomorrow, already has a fringy Hall of Fame case. Of the six numbers listed in this section, 15 is likely the only one with any real chance of being retired.

The other guys, like Nomar, were all really good and special parts of the Red Sox teams for which they played, but unlikely to get the honor. Kevin Youkilis was the bald-scowling face of the on-base percentage movement that came about in the early-to-mid-2000s – “Greek God of Walks” remains one of the dumber nicknames we have seen, but is representative of how he was perceived. He played excellent defense at both corner infield spots, was the subject of an incredible moment in broadcasting, did not get along with Bobby Valentine, and married Tom Brady’s sister. All around good guy, that Youk. I was not around to have watched much of Luis Tiant, but his twirling deliveries, importance to the Cuban baseball community, and performances in the 1975 World Series all stand out to me. Finally you have The Captain, Jason Varitek, who spent 13 seasons in Boston, guided the pitching staffs through two Championship seasons, and, in a moment that will never be forgotten, cleaned a few crumbs off of Alex Rodriguez’s face. Wakefield was also a part of two championship teams and did it all in his 19 seasons in Boston. He started, he relieved, he was even the closer for a while, which seems ludicrous when compared with today’s world of the blow-you-away fastball monsters who end games. A thing I truly respected about Wake was that he ate innings when he (or others) was getting rocked, which often kept the team in the next day’s game. Game 3 of the 2004 ALCS is a good example. Without Wake taking one for the team in Game 3, those extra inning affairs in Games 4 and 5 might go differently.

The Tossup

24. Number 24 is perhaps the most interesting situation of any number. Like 15 above, I think it should have an actual chance at retirement. The difficulty is that there are two players who have a serious claim on this number: Dwight Evans and Manny Ramirez. Both are Hall of Fame worthy players, although Evans has already been passed over for enshrinement, and Manny will likely miss out due to his indulgence in “home run hitting pills”. Evans played in Boston for 19 seasons, made three All-Star teams, offered excellent defense in right field, and was consistently above-average with the bat. Manny only played in Boston for eight years, but made the All-Star team every year, was an offensive force on two Championship teams, and offered high-comedy on defense in left field. Manny was David Ortiz’s partner in mashing opposing pitching, so it would be neat to see their numbers posted on the wall together forever, but in the end, if 24 gets posted in right field, it is probably to honor Evans. Ideally, David Price will turn things around, pitch like we know he can for the next six years, and make the discussion of number 24 even more complex.

The What Ifs

21 and 29. What if Roger Clemens stayed in Boston after the 1996 season and never signed in Toronto or eventually with the Yankees? Clemens is arguably the greatest right-handed pitcher to ever play. Were it not for his indulgence in “home run preventing pills”, he would already be enshrined in Cooperstown. Perhaps that, and the going to New York thing, is what is holding-up the powers-that-make-these-decisions from posting 21 on the facade. Nobody has worn 21 since he left in 1996, so the number has been functionally retired for a while. Maybe it is time to explicitly honor the man. What if Adrian Beltre was not a one-and-done in Boston? As you may have heard, third base has been an unmitigated disaster since he left. Nobody else who wore 29 for the Red Sox really stands out – Keith Foulke? So had Beltre stayed and kept crushing bombs over the monster from one knee, performing as he has in Texas, continuing his clear path to Cooperstown, perhaps we would think of him when thinking of 29. Ugh. Life with Beltre at third for the last seven years is an alternate timeline I wish we could explore.

The Current Group

2, 16, 41, and 50. Xander Bogaerts has only Jacoby Ellsbury (and maybe Jerry Remy) to surpass to ensure he is the primary 2 in our hearts. I irrationally love Andrew Benintendi, so sure let’s consider retiring 16 in his honor after he has only played 66 games in the uniform. While we are acting crazy, how about Chris Sale and number 41? There are not many stand out 41s in Red Sox history. If he can strikeout 10 batters per start for the Red Sox for the next three years and beyond, then why not him? In three-plus seasons, Mookie Betts already has more career wins above replacement player (17.5) than any other player who wore number 50 for the Red Sox other than Jamie Moyer (58.6), who only wore it for one year in 1996. Mookie is on a strong path to making 50 his and having it posted alongside David Ortiz’s 34.

Regardless of my trip down uniform number memory lane, tomorrow night will be about David Ortiz and his number 34. He was a force in the middle of the Red Sox lineup for 14 years. He contributed 52.5 wins above replacement, basically all with his bat. In his Red Sox career he posted a .290/.386/.570 (.956 OPS), mashed 483 home runs, and helped the team win three rings. I subscribe to the idea that players are not clutch, but can have clutch moments. Well, Ortiz had enough moments to push me to believe that he is, in fact, clutch. Seriously, there were so many incredible moments. He hit .688/.760/1.188 in the 2013 World Series. That is just silly. He was so much fun to watch. It will be fun to celebrate him once more tomorrow night.

Photo by Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports