The Diamond of Misfit Toys seems like a sad place to be. Granted I don’t really know, because for whatever reason baseball decided not to let media members in, but it seems like a sad place. My guess is that it is. Assuming as much, it’d behoove the Red Sox to swoop in and help one of those poor, generic-jersey-wearing souls, be emancipated from that private workout hellscape.

One of those poor souls happens to be Alex Cobb, who is someone the Red Sox should take a nice, long look at. I should note that I don’t think this will happen. Alex Cobb is in the range of good/okay/fine, but there are not many good/okay/fine pitchers left on the market, and a lot of teams need a good/okay/fine starter more than the Red Sox. Someone’s going to pay Cobb to be their number-two guy, and that obviously won’t be the Sox. BUT:

If there’s mutual interest, the Red Sox should pounce. The current free agent market is eventually going to cause a work stoppage, but right now there’s about as good a window to get talent on a team-friendly deal as there’s ever been.

Cobb’s 30, but his workload has been relatively light. Missing a year because of Tommy John is obviously a big reason for that, but since coming up in 2011, Cobb has thrown 700 innings. Comparatively, Chris Sale came up the year before Cobb and has thrown 1,324 innings. There’s life left in Cobb’s arm, and all the numbers paint the picture of a remarkably consistent mid-rotation guy.

Cobb’s biggest pluses are that he doesn’t walk people and he keeps the ball in the park. His career walk rate sits right at seven percent, with his career HR/9 sitting at a very cozy 0.84. He’s posted better than league average totals in both walk rate and HR/9 during  every season he’s stayed healthy. He doesn’t really strike people out (19.7 career strikeout rate), but you can live with a mid-rotation guy not piling up K’s when he can do the other things well. Chris Sale will strike enough people out for the both of them, do not worry.

Looking at last year’s numbers, there are some contact issues worth bringing up. After keeping his fly-ball rate under 30 percent for the entirety of his career, Cobb finally passed that threshold last year. Hitters are starting, albeit slowly, to hit the ball in the air more often against Cobb. Whether that’s a product of Cobb’s stuff, or just a reflection on the growing trendiness of hitting the ball in the air (I tend to think more the latter), it’s worth keeping an eye on. Cobb’s career fly-ball rate sits right at 26 percent, so it’s entirely possible last year was an anomaly. Still, declines always have a starting point, and it’s too soon to tell if this is Cobb’s.

Since coming up in 2011, Cobb has been at least a two-win pitcher in any full season where he’s been healthy. His only sub-two seasons were his debut year, when he only pitched 50-something innings, and his Tommy John season, when he threw 22. Let’s assume that the Red Sox sign Cobb and place him into the fourth spot in the rotation. Here’s how many wins the Red Sox fourth starters have been worth since Cobb came into the league:

2011: 0.7 (Clay Buchholz)
2012: 0.8 (Clay Buchholz)
2013: 2.2 (Felix Doubront!)
2014: 0.4 (Rubby de la Rosa)
2015: 1.6 (Rick Porcello)
2016: 1.2 (Eduardo Rodriguez)
2017: 2.0 (Rick Porcello)

Essentially, Cobb would provide the Red Sox with a luxury they’ve rarely had this decade. This is also a big reason why Cobb has probably priced himself out of the picture for the Red Sox, but you just never know in this market. Jake Arrieta is on the Phillies. Christian Yelich is on the Brewers. Weird shit happens. I’m firmly on Team You Can Never Have Too Much Quality Starting Depth, and the Red Sox are one Drew Pomeranz elbow explosion away from a real disaster. Steven Wright won’t be ready for the regular season and cannot pitch unless the weather is literally perfect. I choose to believe that Eduardo Rodriguez’s knee can stay in place when it goes six weeks without falling out. The Red Sox starting depth looks great on paper, but a closer look reveals a pretty delicate situation. If this is indeed the middle of some three-year window, this seems like the perfect time to shell out a little more to create one of the deepest rotations in baseball. The team most likely can’t wait much longer to see how their rotation shapes up, and still be able to make a move for Cobb, but I wouldn’t hate it if they did.

Photo by Rick Osentoski — USA TODAY Sports

As of now, they have three competent starters in David Price, Steven Wright and Rick Porcello. See a common thread here? None of them were homegrown. Price was a big FA acquisition, and Wright and Porcello were obtained in trades with AL Central teams. That leaves two rotation spots for the other starters to fill, and, well, they haven’t been anything close to competent. The melting pot of Clay Buchholz, Roenis Elias, Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe Kelly and Henry Owens has made a really unappetizing stew.

But hey, there’s some slack to cut. Elias, Rodriguez, and Kelly weren’t brought up through the Red Sox’s farm system, and Buchholz has been good in the past. Problem is, he isn’t good anymore. Neither is Henry Owens. And therein lies the core of the issue. The Red Sox, as an organization, simply cannot produce starting pitchers.

When’s the last time you can remember the Red Sox churning out a starter that could cut it in the majors? Buchholz did well for a while, but his trademark erraticism has torpedoed any hope that he could be that good again. So let’s go with Jon Lester. He debuted in 2006, and became a full-time starter in 2008. He is, by far, the best pitcher they’ve developed in recent years, and I’m really straining the definition of the word “recent” here.

There’s been flareups from guys like Justin Masterson and his really good four months in 2009, and Felix Doubront and his strangely decent 2013 season. Other than those 10 months of good pitching, everything has been terrible. That’s not an exaggeration. It’s been so bad that Brad Penny – you know, the dude who could only manage five innings of four-run ball per start in 2009 – has been more valuable in 131 innings than the vast majority of Red Sox-developed starters in the last several years. David Price has already blown past them all as well. Even Eduardo Rodriguez, who we can all agree has been objectively horrifying to watch pitch this year, is worth more than many Sox starters.

So, as a benchmark, let’s use Lester’s promotion to a full-time starter in 2008 as a starting point here. What other monstrosities have the Red Sox minors unleashed upon the major league team? Remember, they’ve had to come up solely through the Red Sox’s system. Also, Brian Johnson is currently exempt, as he’s been snakebitten with injuries, and is being treated for anxiety.

• For starters – pun intended – there’s Charlie Zink. He was a knuckleballer who made a single disastrous start in 2008 and was never heard from again. Think of how a knuckleballer can go bad, and then make it three times worse. Yeah. That’s Zink.
• Michael Bowden probably didn’t get very much of a chance in the majors in the late 2000s, but he was still pretty nondescript in the minors. He was used primarily as a reliever, but the strange, arm-twisting throwing motion of his tended to give away his pitch a lot, and made him very vulnerable to the running game. Never really started again after 2010, and no team took a chance on him.
• Junichi Tazawa actually came into the majors in 2009 as a starter, and unsurprisingly, gave up 23 runs in 25.1 innings. Now you see why he’s a reliever. To his credit, he did have one good start against the Yankees while the entire team imploded around him that year.
• If you can recall specific details from the September collapse in 2011, you probably remember Kyle Weiland. He was so bad in his major league stint that a Terry Francona press conference is all I could find for highlights of him. He added to the collapse by giving up five home runs in 24 innings, and was sent to Houston to fade away that winter.
• Daniel Bard, the starter. You’re sad, I’m sad, so let’s just move on.
• Brandon Workman’s been middling, to put it kindly. A terrible 2014 wiped out whatever good vibes lasted from his 2013 campaign. Then came the Tommy John surgery. He’s slated to be a reliever now as well.
• Hey, remember Anthony Ranaudo? The guy who couldn’t strike anyone out, walked boatloads of batters, and gave up a ton of fly balls? He’s what rock bottom looks like for Red Sox starters. You have to try real hard to get a 6.89 FIP in 39 innings, but Ranaudo put that work in.
• Henry Owens has 13 walks in 12 innings this year. Somehow, the Red Sox won every start he’s made. Sure, there’s hope, but he gave up 7 runs on three separate occasions last year, and the walks aren’t going away.

I’d rather not go on. You’ve seen this story play out over and over again. The Red Sox aren’t developing starting pitchers, and that list doesn’t even include starters acquired from other teams, like Zach Stewart. They even hired Brian Bannister to bolster their pitching corps, and so far, the results still aren’t there. This isn’t Bannister’s fault, but the organization’s as a whole.

Going forward, it doesn’t look much better. Anderson Espinosa is someone to get excited about, yes, and Michael Kopech is also quite good. But it says a lot about the state of Red Sox pitching if their third-best prospect might end up being Jason Groome, the Red Sox’s 2016 first round selection who might opt for junior college to raise his draft stock. That’s not a good situation.

This forces the Red Sox to overpay for starters. Just look at Price’s contract. Or the price tag for someone like Julio Teheran, who would be a mediocre fit in Fenway Park, but would be a much better option than whomever the Red Sox cough up for those last two spots in the rotation. It’s not an enviable position, and if Dombrowski decides to deal, it could quickly deplete a farm system with a big gap between its top four prospects and everyone else.

Look, I realize the Red Sox aren’t the Mets. They won’t churn out a top-flight starter every 12 months. Hell, they can’t even produce a major-league starter in three times that. But it’s rapidly become a chronic issue, especially as the team searches for solutions. At this point, they can’t look internally for help for much longer. The players they need just aren’t there, and it’s been that way for a long, long time.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

Prior to the 2010 season, the Cubs signed Marco Hernandez out of the Dominican Republic. I’ve looked relatively hard, and I can’t find the exact date of his signing nor can I find the exact signing bonus for Hernandez. That alone tells you how little he was thought of at this point in his career. Hernandez was hardly considered much of a prospect in the years since signing, as he has slowly but surely made his way up the minor-league ladder over the past six years. Nevertheless, the Red Sox saw enough talent to take him back as the player to be named later in the Felix Doubront deal, bringing Hernandez to the organization in December 2014.

What Went Right in 2015

The now-23 year old showed off the most appealing part of his game last year as he proved to be a capable defensive player at both middle infield positions. Hernandez spent most of his time at shortstop and displayed the fluid movements that confirmed his ability to stick at those positions for a long time. He’ll never be Jose Iglesias or even Deven Marrero with the leather, but he’s a positive contributor on that side of the ball with his quick movements and solid hands. The arm isn’t spectacular, which makes him a better fit for the keystone, but Hernandez will likely be serving as a backup at the highest level. He certainly has the tools to play shortstop on an irregular basis.

He also lived up to what he does best with the stick. Although he’ll probably never even be an average hitter at the major-league level, Hernandez has a hit tool that can carry him in a bench role. He thrived against minor-league pitching last season, posting a .289 True Average in Double-A and a .266 mark after being promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket. He also posted a respectable .149 ISO between both stops despite little-to-no home run power.

Hernandez specializes in attacking early-count fastballs that he can turn into line drives, resulting in a high number of doubles and triples throughout his professional career. While his approach is far from perfect, his ability to make solid contact has been able to mask that deficiency more often than not.

What Went Wrong in 2015

Honestly, this all depends on what your expectations are for Hernandez. If you’re expecting him to be a future Gold Glove winner, he disappointed in the field. While he’s still very solid, there are real problems with his hands and his footwork, which led to 29 errors across all levels and positions last season.

If you are expecting an everyday-caliber hitter, too, you’d be disappointed by his impatient approach. He struggled against secondary pitches — a problem that will only grow as he faces better opposition. He also doesn’t really work counts, walking less than five percent of the time at both levels while watching his strikeout rate climb as he made the jump to Pawtucket. While that’s to be expected, Hernandez has the profile of a hitter who will struggle against more advanced competition. A strong hit tool can only mask so much with that kind of approach.

If those were your expectations, however, you were setting yourself up to be disappointed. He’s never been a perfect player and has always profiled as a utility guy. The only thing that really changed in Hernandez’s performance last season relative to his prior track record was his stolen base total. After stealing around 20 bases a year with the Cubs organization, he swiped just five bags last year. Of course, he didn’t really give himself many chances, which could either be a change in skill set or a different set of expectations from his new organization. Overall, the worst thing you can say about Hernandez’s 2015 was that he didn’t improve his projection over the course of the season.

Future Outlook/MLB ETA

In Hernandez’s case, his future outlook and his MLB ETA are one in the same. He was added to the 40-man roster this past winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Although that’s not always a guarantee for an imminent promotion, Hernandez isn’t the type of player you protect and stash. He’ll start the year in Pawtucket’s middle infield along side Marrero, and the two will have something of a competition to determine who is the primary backup infielder for the big club. With that being said, neither is likely to be good enough to demand a long look. So even if Marrero wins the competition, Hernandez will get his shot sooner or later.

Once he’s called up, I’d expect more of the same from Hernandez. The numbers obviously won’t translate to Boston, as he’s likely more of a .250 or .260 hitter in the majors, but the skill set will remain. He has enough versatility in the infield to maximize his playing time, and he even started to get work at third base last season. Major-league pitchers will fool him enough to keep him from excelling, but the hit tool is good enough that Hernandez will run himself into enough extra-base hits to make him a solid contributor off the bench for a long time.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

If we’re looking for admiration, we have to step back one season prior to 2013, when a championship appeared as if Ben Cherington just happened to find one in the bottom of his back pocket while taking a post-lunch stroll through the Common. Not unlike the 2004 squad, the 2013 team dissolved almost as quickly as it emerged. Some have retired, some have remained, but many have scattered, ashes from an urn, floating on the winds to new destinations where, they hope, the cycle will be repeated.

For us now, we have the 2015 team and the hope and promise they bring, but as we focus on our new friends, perhaps it is worth a look back on old friends to see how they’re making out. What follows is a series of questions intended to test your knowledge of the 2013 team, the World Series, and what those players who brought you the third World Series win in the last 10 seasons at the time have done since.

1. Two years later, what percentage of the 2013 team remains on Boston’s roster?
A) 33%
B) 50 %
C) 67%
D) 75%
E) 82 %

2. Which member of the 2013 team has been the most valuable player by WARP since winning the World Series (so including 2014 and 2015)?
A) Jacoby Ellsbury
B) Dustin Pedroia
C) Jon Lester
D) John Lackey
E) Jarrod Saltalamacchia

3. Which pitcher other than Jon Lester and John Lackey won a 2013 World Series game?
A) Jake Peavy
B) Felix Doubront
C) Brandon Workman
D) Junichi Tazawa
E) Ryan Dempster

4. Which member of the 2013 team has played for the most teams since hoisting the World Series trophy?
A) Felix Doubront
B) Stephen Drew
C) Andrew Bailey
D) Franklin Morales
E) Alfredo Aceves

5. Which former Red Sox’s new team is doing the best in the standings so far in 2015?
A) Andrew Miller
B) Jonny Gomes
C) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
D) David Ross
E) Jose Iglesias

6. After David Ortiz’s .688 batting average, the next highest for a Red Sox player during the World Series was .250. Who did that?
A) Dustin Pedroia
B) Xander Bogaerts
C) Daniel Nava
D) Jonny Gomes
E) Jacoby Ellsbury

7. Which member of the 2013 Red Sox left the team in 2014 only to return to the organization this season?

8. Which member of the 2013 Red Sox has been the least valuable by WARP this season?
A) Jon Lester
B) Jonny Gomes
C) Andrew Miller
D) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
E) Stephen Drew

9. Of the now moved on 2013 Red Sox, who put up the best OPS+ in 2013?
A) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
B) Stephen Drew
C) Jonny Gomes
D) Will Middlebrooks
E) Jose Iglesias

10. Of the now moved on 2013 Red Sox, who has the most home runs this season?
A) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
B) Stephen Drew
C) Jonny Gomes
D) David Ross
E) Jose Iglesias

Click here for the answers!

Photo by Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.smugmug.com