• Offseason 2015: move Hanley Ramirez to first base? Sure, he will only play there for a season before David Ortiz retires, opening up the DH spot, and Travis is potentially major league ready.
• Offseason 2016: sign Mitch Moreland to a one-year deal rather than signing someone like Edwin Encarnacion to a longer deal? Sure, it is only for one season, it lets Hanley focus solely on hitting, and Travis’ timeline was delayed after he tore his ACL.

But now what? Does the front office stay this course and give Sam Travis the position on a full-time or part-time basis in 2018? Or do they shift from it and sign one of J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, or (my preference) Carlos Santana, effectively ending Travis’ shot at a role in Boston? Either way, Travis will soon have a clearer idea about his future with the organization.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

The primary positive for Travis was his finally getting the call to the big leagues. He hit really well for Pawtucket in May (.333/.389/.561 in 72 PA), earning his first opportunity with the Red Sox at the end of that month.

He carried his hot hitting in May with him to the big leagues – collecting five hits in his first 12 plate appearances – but cooled off once the calendar flipped to June, and never really regained that May form the rest of the way for Pawtucket or in his subsequent stints in Boston.

If you dig a little deeper into Travis’ performance you find the skill most likely to keep him in the big leagues for an extended period: hitting left-handed pitching. Against lefties in 2017, he slashed .314/.400/.505 at the Triple-A level (105 PA) and .381/.458/.500 in the majors (48 PA). Those aren’t exactly huge samples, but the results don’t deviate from what he has done against lefties at every level throughout his career. His ability to hit lefties opens up a fallback role for him as a right-handed bat off the bench.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Outside of May and against lefties, he didn’t really hit well. He finished the season with a .259 TAv at Pawtucket and a much worse .217 for the Red Sox. Being that he is a first baseman (and maybe a corner outfielder in a stretch) those rates are not going to play. He needs to hit better. Prospect gurus see him as a potentially above-average defender, but he still has to hit much better than he has in order to provide value.

The thing that really sticks out to me about Travis’ underwhelming hitting is that he hit just six home runs last year for Pawtucket and has never hit more than 10 in a season at any level.

All jokes aside on how he fit right in with the 2017 Red Sox, Travis’ lack of power is troubling; especially when it isn’t supplanted with way-above-average contact ability. His power problems in 2017 were not limited to lacking dingers, as he posted the lowest isolated power marks of his career. But I want to stick with the home run thing for another couple of sentences: he also had six home runs in 2016, but did so in just 190 PA, 150 fewer than he needed to get his six last year. Perhaps the knee injury that shortened his 2016 season sapped some of his power potential, or he needs more time to build strength in the knee. Regardless, Travis showing more power would be nice.

WHAT TO EXPECT

As noted at the top, Travis’ role with the Red Sox in 2018 (and beyond) depends on the moves the organization makes this offseason. The scoopers out there suggest that signing J.D. Martinez is all but a certainty. If true, Martinez and Hanley are the primary 1B/DH options, leaving Travis without a spot. I suppose in that situation Travis could take on a right-handed bench-bat role, but it seems unlikely that he would be used to hit for JDM or Hanley. There would also be considerable redundancy with Bryce Brentz, who seems to have the inside track on that job, so I don’t think a bench role like that fits for Travis. As such, it is more likely that Travis spends the majority of 2018 in the minors and/or is included in a trade.

Alternatively, if the team opts to stay away from the splashy signing of JDM and instead sign one of the second-tier left-handed-hitting first base options (e.g., Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Jay Bruce) then I can see a role with the Red Sox for Travis as the short-side of a first-base platoon. We know he can hit lefties, so that could be his primary gig. Regardless, it seems as though Travis’ future is going to be driven by whichever player the Red Sox bring in to start at first base.

Photo by Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports

We’ll start with what we have. Mike Napoli’s brutal start to the season seemed to conclude in mid-May with an equally brutal stomping of the Rangers, followed by a personal takedown of the Angels. Napoli took the opportunity to resuscitate his season against his previous employers, hitting .429/.500/1.190 in six games against them. That last number is not his OPS, it’s his slugging percentage. It looked like the Napoli of 2013 was back, and the Napoli of 2011 was taking occasional ABs too.

But then the Angels and Rangers left town and the good versions of  Napoli left with them. Since those series, Napoli has hit .193/.299/.303: bad for a glove-first utility infielder, horrendous for a slugging first baseman. But it gets worse. Don’t count those six games against Texas and Anaheim, which you can’t do, but which I’m doing anyway, and Napoli is hitting .177/.284/.292 on the season. That last number is his slugging percentage, not the number of fans willing to pay his way out of town on any given night.

Despite the lack of production, it’s hard to say Napoli’s skills are gone forever, especially while remembering what he did to Anaheim and Texas. But it’s equally difficult to imagine a contending team carrying a first baseman with a .670 OPS who, to date, has been roughly replacement level depending on the WARP-like metric you choose. I don’t know the Red Sox’s plans of course, but as they struggle to get back into the overly forgiving AL East race, one would think the date for Napoli to either snap out of it or lose his job is fast approaching.

As the Red Sox struggle to get back into the overly forgiving AL East race, one would think the date for Napoli to either snap out of it or lose his job is fast approaching.

If he does snap to and OPS .800 the rest of the season, then great. His season numbers will still look bad and it’s tough to imagine the Red Sox re-signing him at this point, but at least they’ll have received something for their money and patience. But if he doesn’t? The Red Sox are rather limited in that eventuality. They could play Brock Holt there, but that seems a waste of the multi-positional talents of \o/. They could move Hanley Ramirez there, but that seems more like an idea than something that could actually happen, like quarks, time travel, or peanut butter with bacon in the same jar. They could move Sandoval to first, but now we’re creating long term problems that don’t really solve short term ones.

The most likely player to replace Napoli as the Red Sox’s starting first baseman this season isn’t on the 40 man roster. That’s Allen Craig. Currently in Triple-A, Craig is getting on base at an over .400 clip, but with just nine extra base hits in 177 plate appearances, the power that marked his time in St. Louis appears to be gone. If Napoli continues to scuffle Craig may get another shot in Boston anyway, but even so, he hasn’t done much to date to push his way back into the Red Sox long-term picture at first base.

The same can be said about Daniel Nava, who began a rehab assignment just last night but faces an uphill climb to reemerge on this roster thanks to Alejandro De Aza.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor, www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Beyond that, they have Triple-A first baseman Travis Shaw who would likely be stretched as a major league regular given he’s slugging .373 in Pawtucket. And that’s kind of the heart of the problem. There isn’t really anyone else. Shaw is 25 and it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen for him, at least in terms of becoming a major league regular. Sam Travis just moved up to Double-A Portland and he has some promise, but he’s not going to fix the first base problem for the 2015 Red Sox. There’s a chance Travis could end up as a major league first baseman down the line, but that’s not happening this season or, very likely, next either. The system has some hitters further down, but nobody who is ready to make the jump to the majors and help at first base.

As for trade market, it’s difficult to imagine the Red Sox front office going in deep on this team right now, though things could change in the next couple weeks should they go on an honest-to-goodness winning streak. Conceivably the Brewers could make Adam Lind available. Lind is having another nice season at the plate and has another option year left under his contract. Beyond him the most intriguing free-agent-to-be is probably Chris Davis of the Orioles, and as long as Baltimore is close to first place, that would seem unlikely. Davis will be a free agent after this season, but he’ll likely cost more than Boston will want to spend in dollars and years. Even looking two years into the future, the market only offers Edwin Encarnacion, Pedro Alvarez, Justin Morneau, and *gasp* Mark Teixeira. How crazy would that be?

Perhaps the Red Sox could make a blockbuster move and acquire someone we don’t currently think is available, like a Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt. Votto is having a fine season but there’s no way the Red Sox want to be paying him through 2023, and asking about Goldschmidt is just asking to have your ear rung after whomever answers the phone in Arizona slams it down upon first hearing the word “gold.”

As for this season, I like the idea of acquiring Lind, but you have to think so will other teams so the price may be steep. Still, if Napoli hasn’t turned it around and Boston is in it at the deadline, acquiring a first baseman who slugs .500, gets on base, and with one more season under contract at $8 million could go a long way towards fixing first base both this season and next.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images