Going Deep

For many teams, roster construction for the 2016 season is still a work in progress. There are two-ish months between us and pitchers and catchers reporting to their respective Spring Training facilities. Despite this uncertainty, taking an early look at how the Red Sox seem to fit in the American League East division is a worthwhile exercise. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal has done just that, working team-by-team highlighting strengths, weaknesses and 2016 outlook. Britton suggests that the Blue Jays should be considered the favorite in the division, the Rays have too many ifs and a lack of depth to handle any under-performance, the Yankees’ fate still depends largely on production from aging players and the Orioles’ outlook, while potentially strong, remains difficult to determine given the remaining work the front office has ahead of it this winter. All told the Red Sox and Jays seem to be the class of the AL East, with the success of both teams likely falling in line with the success of the starting pitching behind their respective number one guys.

The Red Sox have made four major additions to the club this offseason and only one of them cost a lot in terms of prospects; Craig Kimbrel. The farm system is still loaded with talent. Factor in all of the big league promotions over the last few years (i.e., Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart, Rusney Castillo, Eduardo Rodriguez) and the system that the previous front office group built becomes that much more impressive. I raise this aspect of the team because the Baseball America top-10 rankings were released this past week. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe takes a detailed look at each of the ten players who made the cut, which includes guys like Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi. The top five players on the list are likely all top-100 prospects, while the lower half includes two players who can contribute at the big league level right now, and two players whose bats will allow them to be productive big league corner infielders in the future. Ranking prospects is a murky business, as it is just so remarkably difficult to accurately anticipate the futures of players given the (often) limited information available. Nevertheless, the Red Sox’s prospect pool is filled with high-ceiling players who present a potentially bright future.

Quick Hits

The Red Sox got themselves an ace this offseason, but what can be expected of David Price? Mike Cole of NESN.com reviews a couple of the projections that are already available for Price. While Price is not projected to post another 2.30 ERA season as he did in 2015, the numbers are still impressive.

Eduardo Rodriguez will be pitching in one of the four rotation spots behind David Price in 2016. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal thinks that Rodriguez has the potential to be Boston’s number two starter, and compares his trajectory to that of old friend Jon Lester.

Newly acquired Carson Smith will be an important part of the Red Sox relief group in 2016. Ian Browne of MLB.com details how Smith’s unusual delivery, typically throwing from a side-arm/three-quarter arm slot rather than over the top, has helped him succeed at the highest level.

Some combination of Blake Swihart, Christian Vazquez and Ryan Hanigan will be responsible for catching Price, Rodriguez, Smith and company this season. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe thinks that group of catchers puts the Red Sox in good position for the coming season. When it comes to Swihart, Matt Collins, writing for OvertheMonster.com, suggests that him reproducing the second half of his 2015 season will be important for the success of the Red Sox offense.

While the Red Sox appear set for the foreseeable future with a core of young, talented players and David Price headlining the rotation, the list of players who could be free agents following the 2018 season are tantalizing – and David Price could be one of them if he opts out. With this in mind, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com explores how the organization can be planning now to handle those future opportunities.

Finally, although it is not directly Red Sox-related, Michael Silverman’s article (at BostonHerald.com) on major league baseball’s decision to reject the reinstatement of Pete Rose is worth reading.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Dave Dombrowski has talked at length about the team’s need to add a “horse” to lead the rotation. Now the question becomes whether he’ll do so through free agency or by trading from the organization’s bundle of touted prospects.

Considering the depth currently in Boston’s rotation, most observers expect the club to acquire just one starter this offseason and piece together a solid staff behind him. Yet that reality shouldn’t necessarily keep Dombrowski from looking to add multiple starters if the right opportunity presents itself.

Indeed, the Red Sox front office shouldn’t hesitate to be aggressive in reshaping the team’s starting rotation. Given the uncertainty surrounding many of Boston’s starters after a disappointing 2015 campaign, the club could benefit even more by bringing in a couple of hurlers to improve the roster’s pitching outlook. That the Red Sox have both money to spend and numerous prospects down on the farm only opens up more possibilities for Dombrowski this winter.

For an executive who is celebrated for wheeling and dealing at the major league level and building deep, talented rotations, it shouldn’t necessarily come as a surprise if Dombrowski chooses to reshuffle a large portion of Boston’s starting staff. And considering he isn’t exactly known for holding onto young talent, perhaps Dombrowski will decide to get aggressive in improving the pitching portion of the team’s roster.

Yet just how would the Red Sox make room for multiple new starters this offseason?

They could go any number of routes, but Dombrowski may decide the club is best served by dealing one of the starters presently penciled into the rotation. Although Wade Miley has only been in Boston for a year, his team-friendly deal could make him a solid trade piece, especially if Dombrowski determines that he can bring in a better option this winter.

The same goes for Clay Buchholz, who has club options in each of the next two seasons that make the injury-prone hurler a far less risky proposition. If Dombrowski decides Buchholz isn’t worth the trouble, the righty could certainly be included in a package that either nets or makes room for another pitcher in return.

Additionally, Boston has two young, promising southpaws on the roster in Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens. While Rodriguez is unlikely to be traded after an impressive rookie campaign, Owens shouldn’t be viewed in the same manner, even if his ability to garner whiffs makes his potential intriguing.

Much of what happens will depend on however the Red Sox obtain that frontline arm. If they sign a top free-agent hurler—be it David Price, Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto—they could package one of their current starters with a couple prospects to bring in another dependable pitcher to fit into the rotation.

Determining just who might be available via trade is never easy, but names like Jose Quintana, James Paxton and Tyson Ross (all of whom have been mentioned as trade candidates) could be good fits. In addition, acquiring a mid-rotation arm in this way wouldn’t cost Boston nearly as much in terms of prospects as someone like Sonny Gray.

The big names on the open market have deservedly received much of the buzz, but there is plenty of depth in this free-agent starting pitching class as well.

Of course, if Dombrowski decides to pull the trigger on a bigger deal for an elite starter, the Red Sox could further bolster their rotation by signing a mid-tier free-agent pitcher. The big names on the open market have deservedly received much of the buzz, but there is plenty of depth in this free-agent starting pitching class as well.

Someone like Scott Kazmir could be a great fit, and so too could Yovani Gallardo or Hisashi Iwakuma, though signing either would require Boston to forfeit its first-round draft pick. Japanese righty Kenta Maeda, who could be posted within the coming weeks, is another option if the Red Sox want to add further stability to their rotation.

All of this is speculation for the time being, but the larger point remains. The organization is currently loaded with noteworthy prospects and has money to spend. And despite Boston’s rotation depth, the likes of Buchholz, Rodriguez, Owens and Rick Porcello mean the staff’s performance in 2016 is open to a wide range of variance and uncertainty.

As a result, the front office can afford to be aggressive in stabilizing the rotation without mortgaging the future. Given Dombrowski’s track record, moreover, allowing him to go to work with all that money and young talent at his disposal might just be the best option for the club’s 2016 chances anyhow.

Next year’s free-agent class doesn’t have nearly the level of quality or depth as this offseason’s, which means the time could be right for the Red Sox to make multiple moves and bolster their rotation. Obtaining a frontline starter is the first step, of course, but Boston shouldn’t just stop there.

With tons of assets in their arsenal and loads of talent potentially available, this winter presents a unique opportunity for Dombrowski and the Red Sox to strike in a big way and make multiple moves to improve the rotation.

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Going Deep

The meetings of the general managers takes place this week in Boca Raton, Florida. The meetings will be the first for Dave Dombrowski and Mike Hazen as leaders of the Red Sox front office. While it is unlikely that much player movement will happen during these meetings, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reminds us that they are a gateway to the offseason, an opportunity for club leaders to lay the groundwork for future moves. Right now a lot of attention is being paid to the free agent market; and rightfully so as it holds a deep crop of great players. The Red Sox will probably be in the mix to sign one of the top-flight free agent starters, but what is a lot more fun—and much more difficult—is determining and evaluating trade candidates. To a large extent, Dave Dombrowski’s reputation comes from his trading prowess, so we can expect him to make a trade or two in the coming months. Along these lines, Scott Lauber of BostonHerald.com outlines five teams that he thinks could be good transaction partners for the Red Sox, and Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com takes a stab at identifying specific pitchers for whom the Sox could trade. Regardless, Brian MacPherson writes in the Providence Journal that the trade market presents an early test of Dombrowski’s knowledge of his new farm system, something that Dombrowski is well aware of. Outside of trading Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts I think anything should be considered.

That outlines things from more of a general perspective, but how about some specific speculation on the Red Sox moves this offseason? Two great, Boston-focused writers, Peter Gammons and Chad Finn, do just that in recent articles. Gammons focuses on the rotation, considering options beyond Zack Greinke, who Gammons sees as the top prize. He outlines the difficulty that Boston will have in luring a top-of-the-line starter to pitch in the American League East, its hitter friendly parks, for the next five-to-seven years and, when those pitchers could opt for a team in the National League West and all its pitcher friendly parks. Alas, we get back to considering trade partners. One really intriguing option that Gammons presents is Chris Sale of the White Sox. It is likely wishful thinking, but he outlines how the two teams could line up on a trade that involved Boston sending Blake Swihart and Javier Guerra to the Windy City. Sale would be a huge get for the Red Sox, as Sale is really good (opponent TAv .227), left-handed, only 26-years-old, and signed to a team-friendly contract. Finn states that he has no idea what the Sox are going to do, but again leans toward trades as the best way to acquire pitching. He reminds us that the offense is fine, having scored the fourth most runs in baseball last year without much production from two important pieces. Pitching is the need. Someone like the Reds’ Aroldis Chapman, the Indians’ Carlos Carrasco, or one of the Mets’ fireballers would be solid acquisitions, but the prices in Queens are likely too high. Finn’s primary caveat for any trade is, like I suggested above, Betts and Bogaerts should be untouchable.

Quick Hits

Perhaps the most glaring part of the roster that is in need of correction is the bullpen. However, fixing said bullpen is a complicated matter. Re-positioning players currently in the organization like Matt Barnes, who the Sox have ticketed for relief duty in 2016, is one approach, but Tim Britton of the Providence Journal shows there are plenty of relief options outside the organization that should be explored.

The decision to move Hanley Ramirez to first base affects the immediate big league future of Travis Shaw, who in the last two months of the season showed that he has the potential to be a productive major league first baseman. Ian Browne of MLB.com reports that Shaw is hoping versatility will get him regular playing time. He has been playing third base in winter ball in Puerto Rico, and could even play some games in the outfield if it means getting into the lineup.

Christian Vasquez is rehabbing from the Tommy John surgery that derailed his 2015 season by playing winter ball in Puerto Rico. He is being used exclusively as a designated hitter and while he is performing well, Scott Lauber of BostonHerald.com writes that, because he is not performing full catching duties, his readiness for the coming season won’t be certain until the Spring.

While much remains to be determined with the Red Sox roster for the 2016 season, the future appears bright, as the farm system is loaded with talent. As mentioned above, over the next few months many of these up-and-coming players will be bandied about in trade rumours. Bryce Brentz for Clayton Kershaw? Sure, I’d consider it. If you are wondering about where the players who are getting mentioned rank within the organization, check out the consensus Top-60 that the staff at Sox Prospects released last Friday.

According to a report from CBSSports.com, a couple of former Red Sox players are frontrunners to be the next manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both Dave Roberts, of 2004 ALCS Game 4 stolen base fame, and Gabe Kapler, who played in Boston from 2003 to 2006, have given impressive interviews in their chance to take the reigns in Chavez Ravine.

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Going Deep

The Red Sox’s 2015 pitching staff has been a disaster. They rank 27^th, 23^rd, and 14^th by ERA, FIP, and DRA, respectively. It is clear that Dave Dombrowski has work to do this offseason to fix this significant flaw. While an established way to build a bullpen remains elusive, having a strong starting rotation can have positive effects on the group that relieves them. Last Friday, Matthew Kory examined options for improving the rotation that could come via trade, while John Tomase of WEEI.com assessed players that will be available to the Sox through free agency. The big names that will be available are Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, David Price and Jordan Zimmerman. To me, Greinke and Price are the most attractive of this group, but will likely come with the highest price tag, making them that much more difficult to lock down. If one of those marquee players is not signed, Dombrowski could aim to get someone (or a couple of someones) from the second tier, which includes Scott Kazmir, Jeff Samardzija, Doug Fister and Matt Latos. Ben Cherington not signing a true ace for the 2015 team was a focus for much of this season, and certainly in some circles is considered a primary reason for why the team failed this year, but that is not an accurate assessment and as such is not really a valid reason to avoid targeting second- or third-tier guys again. Adding an arm or two to the starting rotation would allow some players who are being considered for a rotation spot to be moved to the bullpen (e.g., Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, Brian Johnson, Steven Wright), which should improve that aspect of the team without additional financial commitment. It is evident that there are many, many interesting decisions to be made by the Red Sox’s front office – whoever that may include – this offseason to piece together the 2016 roster.

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One decision regarding the 2016 roster that appears to already be progressing is moving Hanley Ramirez out of left field. As you may have heard, Hanley has been an unmitigated disaster in left field this season. Moving him off the position allows the team to play Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo in the outfield full time, providing a huge upgrade defensively. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe documented how Brian Butterfield and David Ortiz have been working with Hanley at first base. Thus, it appears clear that Hanley will continue his descent down the defensive spectrum for at least another season, before likely taking the designated hitter spot when Ortiz is done. There is considerable risk that comes with playing Hanley at first base, as he now has a defensive impact on more parts of the game than he did while out in left field. I recognize the risk, but I think it is the right decision. I do not mean to suggest that it will be an easy transition, but it should be easier. Having a healthy Hanley – he has reportedly been playing through injury for much of the season – in the lineup everyday is important for the Sox’s success, so hopefully this new move works better than the last one. An interesting part of the decision to move Hanley to first is that it leaves Travis Shaw in limbo for (at least) another season. Since being called up to the big leagues Shaw has done nothing but perform well: .301 TAv in 112 plate appearances (PA), and 1.3 fielding runs above average (FRAA) at first base. Hanley moving to first keeps Shaw without a clear everyday role on the 2016 major league team, but Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com suggests that Shaw is also an option at third base. However, having Shaw at third requires trading one of Hanley or Pablo Sandoval, which is another can of worms. For next year, Shaw will end up as a bench option on the major league club or spend the season at Pawtucket, and his role will be re-evaluated as part of the plan for the 2017 Red Sox.

Quick Hits

Transitioning to a new team, city, fanbase, and manager can take different periods of time for different players. Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe writes that Rick Porcello is a player for whom the acclimation process took longer than expected, and that may have contributed to his early season performance woes.

Through Monday’s game Xander Bogaerts has a .405 slugging and a .090 isolated power, which are both considerably lower than was expected of him, but Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis does not care. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal describes how the team is happy with Xander’s approach at the plate, in which he consistently makes contact and shows a willingness to drive the ball the other way.

Joe Kelly had a really nice month of August, earning a win in each of his six starts, which has Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com comparing Kelly to Pedro Martinez. While Kelly has been better of late, we should probably pump the brakes on him now being an elite starter. In his August starts, Kelly struck out fewer batters than is typical, walked more, induced fewer ground balls, and stranded a really high percentage of baserunners.

As mentioned, it has been a tumultuous month for the Red Sox organization, placing many people in difficult and likely temporary positions. Acting manager Torey Lovullo is one such person. But as Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe notes in his excellent feature of Lovullo, he has handled the change admirably and should be considered this offseason for any available managerial positions.

Three Good Game Stories

The Sox earned a victory over the Mets and Matt Harvey on Friday night, a win that Rob Bradford of WEEI.com notes provided one of the few positive memorable moments of the season.

The Red Sox let a sweep of the Mets slip through their fingers on Sunday. Sean Mcadam suggests that poor execution in the series finale brought the Red Sox’s spoiler ways to a temporary halt.

Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox squeaked out a win over the Yankees on Monday night. Rodriguez, given extra rest coming into the start, was not at his best, but Michael Silverman of the BostonHerald.com reminds us that Rodriguez has pitched well against the difficult Yankees’ lineup three times in his young career.

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