That offseason, the Red Sox famously brought in future Hall of Fame pitcher and future Hall of Fame-level asshole Curt Schilling to, as it turned out, co-front the rotation. They also brought in Mark Bellhorn, Terry Francona, and maybe even more importantly, Keith Foulke. It was a murderer’s row of talent, from the front office on down. As it turned out, it was just barely enough to get past the Yankees in a second consecutive ALCS Game Seven. That was elation so high it lifted my ankles off the floor.

That two-year period where the Red Sox went from so close to winning to losing to so close to losing to winning represents certainly the most intense rivalry between two teams I’ve ever experienced or endured in my lifetime. And now, dear reader, 200 words into this, here is my point. The rivalry is back, my dudes! . It’s back! The Red Sox and the Yankees are the two best teams in the division, two of the three best in the AL and probably two of the best five or six in baseball. This season, this 2018, is going to be another huge brawl of a season. They got Severino, we got Sale. They got Judge, we got Betts. They got Stanton, we got JD. So I thought it might be instructive to look and see how these two teams stack up against each other, a tale-of-the-tape, if you will, or even if you won’t.

Let’s start here. PECOTA. The PECOTA projections are here and they are spectacular. Though maybe not if you’re the Red Sox. I’ve already detailed how the Sox individual projections maybe aren’t as positive as we’d wish they were, but in the end and as we all know, games are won on the field not inside spreadsheets. Which is good, because PECOTA has the Yankees finishing seven games up on the Sox after winning 96 games. By any measure, 89 wins for the Red Sox would be an unsuccessful season, but that’s where things stand as of now. FanGraphs does their own full season projections as well, and theirs are slightly more favorable to Boston (which makes them worth mentioning). They have the Sox at 93 wins, a game behind New York’s 94. Better, but not what we’re looking for.

So let’s go deeper. Let’s go position-by-position and see who has the advantage. I’ll give you the names and their projected WARP in parentheses.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (4.4) vs. Christian Vazquez (1.7)

This is one of the Yankees’ biggest advantages. Sanchez is, bizarrely as it is to say, perhaps as good a hitter as Judge. Vazquez is a fantastic defensive catcher, but at this point in his career, that’s mostly all he is.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Yankees

First Base

Greg Bird (1.5) vs. Moreland/Ramirez (combined 0.4)

We don’t really know what Greg Bird is as a player yet, but he was as highly touted as Judge was prior to the 2017 season, so there’s some nightmare fuel for Red Sox fans. He missed most of last season with an injury and didn’t hit well upon return, but he’s young and talented so much more is expected of him this season. Moreland is Moreland, and it’s still unclear to me why the Red Sox felt it necessary with a glut of talent available on the market, to give him a two year contract. Best case he and Hanley combine to form the two sides of a successful platoon, so that could happen. Or Hanley could remember that he’s actually a great hitter.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Push

Second Base

Gleyber Torres (0.1) vs. Dustin Pedroia (1.3)

Torres is yet another great Yankee prospect, but for now we don’t know what he is at the major league level. Pedroia is an aging middle infielder coming off of surgery. So who knows on either of these guys.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

Shortstop

Didi Gregorius (1.7) vs. Xander Bogaerts (1.4)

Ever since he’s put on the pinstripes, Gregorius has continued to get better. Over a similar timeframe Bogaerts’ numbers are going in the opposite direction. I’m still a Xander Believer though, more so than Gregorius who hacks at everything and seems like exactly the kind of hitter the juiced ball turns into something he isn’t.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Red Sox

Third Base

Brandon Drury (0.4) vs. Rafael Devers (1.8)

Drury is Gregorius with a more boring name. He’s got some pop but he doesn’t take walks and he’s not much beyond average defensively. That’s a fine profile for a team with Sanchez, Judge, and Stanton, but it doesn’t move the needle much either way. Devers might be the second best hitter on the Red Sox. He’s that good.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

Outfield

Left Field: Giancarlo Stanton (3.9) vs. Andrew Benintendi (2.1)

Center Field: Aaron Hicks (1.2) vs. Jackie Bradley (1.0)

Right Field: Aaron Judge (4.0) vs. Mookie Betts (5.2)

We’re doing outfield together because this is getting long. The funny thing to me is that the Red Sox are a team built on the strength of their outfielders. Their best hitter and maybe their second best hitter are both outfielders. Their best fielders are outfielders. This is an outfield-heavy team. And yet, up against the Yankees, the strength of this Boston team falls back. The Yankees won’t be able to keep up with Boston defensively but they won’t be bad there, and what ground they lose there will more than be made up for with their bats. Good lord, those bats. The “ifs” here are health. The Red Sox players haven’t shown any predilection for missing games to injury, but Stanton and Hicks both have missed significant time over their careers.

Picks

PECOTA: Yankees

Matt: Yankees

Designated Hitter

Brett Gardner (1.8) vs. JD Martinez (2.9)

I don’t actually know who is going to DH for New York, so I picked the best Yankee projection not included in the above sections and put him here. That’s Gardner. But no leftover Yankee is going to hold a candle to J.D. Martinez in the hitting department.

Picks

PECOTA: Red Sox

Matt: Red Sox

I was going to do the pitching staffs as well, but this has already gone on too long. We’ll leave that for next time. For now, the results. Counting the outfield as three separate positions, PECOTA has Yankees 6, Red Sox 3. I have Red Sox 4, Yankees 4 with 1 push.

Any way you slice this, and I’m sure Yankee fans would disagree with my analysis, it’s close. That we know. PECOTA shows that. FanGraphs shows that. Our eyes show that. It’s going to be another fun season. Buckle the heck up.

You may recall that in my article last week I looked at three primary factors/indicators that bode well for a Red Sox offensive bounce back. The first was age. The Red Sox lineup is mostly young and aging towards their peak seasons or already in their peak seasons. That means improvement is in the offing, very generally speaking. The second was 2018 projections. We will return to this. The third was under/over performance last season. I took the members of the 2018 Sox lineup, looked at what they did last year, and then compared that to what they were projected to do in 2017. This was an attempt to look at how the 2017 team hit compared to what a reasonable expectation would have been at the time. I found that, unsurprisingly, the team under-performed what was expected of them almost across the board.

Two of those three items — the players’ age and their under-performance relative to expectations last season — were true at the time and will remain so after this article. Now to the second item, the 2018 projections. Here’s what I wrote last week about what FanGraphs’ projections said about the Red Sox lineup:

Going by those same rough estimates, of the Red Sox starting nine, FanGraphs projects seven of the Red Sox to improve, five of which significantly. Only Pedroia and Mitch Moreland are projected to improve only slightly from their 2017 performances. Rafael Devers is projected to perform just as he did last season, only to play a full season’s worth of games, which would be a large upgrade over what the Red Sox have been getting from third basemen over the past half decade or more. Only Christian Vazquez is projected to put up a worse performance.

So that’s what FanGraphs has to say. PECOTA, however, sings a very different tune. Of the Red Sox starting nine, which at the moment includes Hanley Ramirez, only two are projected to improve on last year’s WARP total. Those two are Andrew Benintendi (projected to go from 1.8 WARP to 2.5) and the aforementioned Ramirez, who is projected to go from -0.1 WARP to 1.5. Other than that Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez are both projected at about what they did last season (within 0.1 WARP either way). For Devers that’s problematic because he’s projected for most of a full season in 2018 where as last year he came up in late July. This means he’s projected for less value per plate appearance despite, well, everything about him. For Vazquez, it’s the same story, but in his case it makes more sense. His offense last season had the whiff of unsustainability about it, so should he come back to earth a bit, and thus he would need more playing time to achieve the same value.

The scary part of the projections comes when you look at the meat of the lineup. Mookie Betts is projected to drop a half win. Xander Bogaerts is projected to drop a win. Jackie Bradley is projected to drop 0.2 WARP but he was at 1.2 last season — a number I don’t agree with considering his defense. Mitch Moreland is projected to be worth 0.0 WARP. So that’s your 2018 Red Sox lineup. Only one guy over 2.5 WARP, and just two over 2.0.

This is probably a good time to point out a few things. Firstly, PECOTA doesn’t know Moreland and Xander played through injuries that very much impacted their performance. It only knows their performance, but presumably, with some health, there’s more performance in there for both those guys. It’s a similar story for Jackie Bradley’s knee injury at the start of the season.

Furthermore, these are only projections and conservative projections at that. To pull from another somewhat notable team, Aaron Judge is projected to drop three wins from last season’s total, and Giancarlo Stanton is projected to drop 4.5. So, you know, things could be worse.

On the whole, these will probably be solid projections, but no set of preseason projections is going to be wholly 100 percent correct. The Red Sox offense could be vastly improved over last season’s output, and if I had to guess, that would be where I would go. I still think last season was a dip in what was and is an overall good offensive team. I think more players are closer to their peak-age seasons, and with some more health, a more modern hitting approach implemented by the new hitting coach, and a bit more luck, the team should be better and far more productive in 2018.

That all said, PECOTA’s projections offer a different viewpoint, and indeed, a greater argument for signing someone like J.D. Martinez. Replacing or augmenting Ramirez’s production by adding Martinez could go a long way if indeed the offense falters in the way PECOTA is saying it will.

Then again…

Given the sheer number of free agents out there, all projections, depth charts, and fantasy predictions are kind of moot, aren't they? Either 100-plus guys' careers are over or they're going to sign and kick over all the dominoes. (Pardon my nihilistic mood.)

— Steven Goldman (@GoStevenGoldman) February 8, 2018

Photo by Bob DeChiara — USA TODAY Sports

I don’t need to sell you on Stanton the player, I hope, but here’s the Cliff’s Notes version just in case. He was worth 8.6 WARP last season (around seven WAR via other measurements). He has monster power, a career slugging percentage of over .600, and he’s a fine defensive right fielder who could, you would think, easily move to left field at Fenway Park. He gets on base well and he’ll be only 28 years old next season so it’s easy to imagine him being around and productive for a long time to come. So that’s all great and you can see why teams want him.

The complicating factors though are many, and this is where things get fun. First, Stanton has a long-term contract that will pay him $295 million over the next 10 seasons. That’s a lot of money to take on. You could make the argument that if he were a free agent right now that some team would give that to him, and you might be right, but there’s two more factors that compound things. The first is Stanton has an opt-out clause that he can use to become a free agent after the 2020 season. However, the team that deals for him doesn’t know if they’re getting Stanton for three years and $77 million, or 10 years and $295 million, and they don’t get to pick which and they don’t get to know which until likely the last second (and if they know sooner it’s probably not a good thing). It’s not hard to imagine those two hugely different amounts of time and money representing very different values to teams.

The second complicating factor is Stanton’s no-trade clause, also included in his contract by the Marlins. This isn’t one of those where the player can pick 10 or 15 teams he doesn’t want to be traded to. This is a full no-trade. Stanton can’t be dealt without his permission, period. This means if Stanton doesn’t want to come to Boston then he doesn’t have to come to Boston. But it also means Stanton can pick a team he wants to be dealt to and tell the Marlins that’s it, deal me there or nowhere. Or, Stanton could be less hard-headed about it and give the Marlins multiple teams with which he will accept a trade. Or he could tell them that he’ll approve a deal anywhere. The thing about all these possibilities is we just don’t know what he’s thinking. Presumably the Marlins do, or will, but as of now, nothing has come out about Stanton’s desires nor his level of desire to engineer his own destination.

Stanton’s no-trade and the liberality in which he uses it will greatly affect what the Marlins can get for him in return. If Stanton says “I’m only going to the Red Sox,” then the Red Sox aren’t going to give the Marlins very much and Marlins will have to decide how badly they want to get Stanton’s money off their books. Is it worth just being rid of Stanton even if they get very little in return for their most marketable player? If there are two teams involved, then at least they can be pitted against each other in the deal and the Marlins would presumably get more back. But even then the total money committed by the acquiring team, who must be prepared to pay all of Stanton’s salary even if he ends up opting out, and the uncertainty created by the opt-out are massive barriers to the Marlins getting a good return.

Typically a trade involves satisfying two people: the GM of the first team and the GM of the second team. Trading for Stanton involves satisfying the GM of both teams, the owner of the acquiring team (because of the massive amount of money that team is taking on), the owners of the Marlins (because this is Stanton, and he’s hugely important to the public relations of franchise), and Stanton himself.

Beyond all that, we’ve got the question of where Stanton fits in on the Red Sox. Presumably he would play left field which would mean the Red Sox will have dealt one of the players from their major league outfield. It doesn’t make sense to keep Andrew Benintendi or Jackie Bradley unless Stanton is going to spend most of his time at DH. That could be the plan, but spending $30 million annually on a DH goes strongly against the current thinking about the value of the DH, so likely Stanton would take a permanent place in the outfield.

If the Sox had Stanton for the next 10 years at a discount, you might be able to talk yourself into one or more of those possibilities. But that might not be the situation. And this gets to the heart of this problem.

So what would it take to acquire Stanton? That’s incredibly hard to say. Are the Red Sox taking on all of his salary, or is Miami helping out in some fashion? Are the Red Sox the sole bidder or are they bidding against other teams, and if so how many other teams? These questions are virtually impossible to answer right now.

There’s also the longer term view with which the Red Sox need to consider. David Price and Drew Pomeranz will be free agents after this coming season, and will need to be replaced (unless Price doesn’t opt-out in which case, uh-oh). Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are getting into their arbitration seasons and getting closer to free agency. The Red Sox have lots of money, but not endless amounts, so spending big money on Stanton could mean losing some of the young talent Boston has on hand currently. It could mean filling holes in the starting rotation become more difficult.

There’s a question I’ve been thinking about all throughout this column, and it is this: what if I, Matthew Kory, were the GM of the Red Sox. What would I trade for Stanton? Would I trade Andrew Benintendi and Eduardo Rodriguez? That’s a tremendous amount of young talent to deal. What about Benintendi, Rodriguez, and top prospect Jay Groome? Would you throw Chavis in there also? If the Sox had Stanton for the next 10 years at a discount, you might be able to talk yourself into one or more of those possibilities. But that might not be the situation. And this gets to the heart of this problem.

Any player can be dealt. We’ve seen it before with huge contracts trading hands in deals that, before their consummation, would have been thought impossible to pull off. So even though this seems daunting, it could absolutely happen. And Stanton is an amazing player who would look fantastic in the middle of the Red Sox batting order. So the Red Sox should explore things with the Marlins. And they will. But in the end, wouldn’t it be easier to skip all the above and give J.D. Martinez $175 million, check off that box, and move on with your offseason?

The caveat with Bradley is that even though he brings that stellar defense, he won’t always hit, but he’ll have the power that’ll make pitchers really think about how to pitch to him. In 2015 and 2016, that power was evident, as Bradley posted ISO numbers over .210 in each season. 2017 did not see that trend continue, as he finished with a .158 mark. Bradley really needs that power to be a threat in the lineup, even when he’s not one one of his white-hot hitting streaks, and he just never really found it.

What Went Right in 2017

Well, that defense is still marvelous.

Bonus points for him taking one away from Aaron Judge.

Bradley’s defense is still one of the best things to watch, from the jumps he takes off the bat, to the routes, not to mention his signature slow-down-to-make-it-look-easy routine that he does when he’s got a bead on a fly ball. Defense is supposed to slowly degrade as a player gets older, but for Bradley, it sure doesn’t seem like he’ll ever be less than spectacular.

The hat tip is just sublime.

Hitting-wise, he had a good June, where he racked up 15 extra-base hits and posted a 1.009 OPS. The other five months? They, well, they weren’t that good. But thanks to Josh Reddick, he got himself a playoff home run!

And now we don’t miss Reddick as much.

What Went Wrong in 2017

That hitting thing? Bradley had it pretty rough for all those months not named June. The second half was especially brutal, as Bradley slashed .204/.277/.302. There are some staggeringly bad hitting numbers here, so I’ll spare you the horrors and tell you that outside of that one month, he was a depressingly horrible batter.

Bradley is streaky. That’s common knowledge, and it’s not something that’ll change soon. The thing about streaks is that you have to be healthy to even be able to have a streak. Bradley strained his knee running around first base in the first week of the season, and slumped for a good while after he returned. He did fine from June on until he slid into home plate awkwardly in late August, which resulted in a sprain of his left thumb. Hurting your knee and your thumb in the same season is a pretty good strategy if the plan is to sap the power out of your bat, and that’s exactly what happened to Bradley here.

A couple fewer freak injuries and maybe we’re not talking about all of this, but these things happen, and it’s very hard to stay fully healthy over 162 games. Bradley just couldn’t get off to a solid start nor could he finish strong.

What To Expect in 2018

For now, he’s the Red Sox’s most enticing trade bait. Of the Killer Bs, Bradley is the most expendable – he’s the oldest of the core, the weakest hitter of the outfielders, and due for a pretty big raise thanks to his first year of arbitration coming up. He’s been mentioned in being traded to Miami for Giancarlo Stanton, or going to San Francisco for, say, Brandon Belt, but the more his name comes up, the more likely it seems that he’ll be on another team come Opening Day.

It’s hard to predict how he’ll do next year. Bradley’s streakiness is so wild that he doesn’t really have a baseline, even after nearly 2000 PAs. If he gets a full season in and doesn’t hurt vital joints again, he’ll be a valuable piece to whatever team he’s on, even with his offensive peaks and valleys. His glove is a mortal lock to be great, and as long as he can rediscover that lost power, he’ll be an above-average player. There’s a lot of variance in his bat, and playing darts blindfolded probably results in more success than trying to predict what Bradley will do. I don’t envy PECOTA one bit on this one.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

That answer is simple – identify the best players available via free agency and trade and go get them. This is the Dave Dombrowski approach to the offseason, and it’s one that has generally worked well, netting him key members of the team like Chris Sale and David Price over the past two years.

The Red Sox made a big deal this year about staying under the luxury tax threshold of $195 million in order to reset the penalties that result when the team exceeds those limits. This has been done. Staying under the cap next year will derive the team no more added benefit other than the money that they would save in doing so. As it stands right now, Cot’s Contracts has the team’s estimated salary for 2018 at slightly over $202 million. The team would actively have to shed players in order to stay under the $197 million threshold for 2018.

This should not be a direction the team looks to go, since time is running out for this core. The 2018 season will be the last year for two of the team’s best pitchers in Drew Pomeranz and Craig Kimbrel, players he acquired via trade. There is also no guarantee that Price won’t opt out of his deal at the end of 2018 if he is healthy and pitching well, though admittedly this is the best scenario for both the team and the player. After the 2019 season, things start to get really bleak, Sale, Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello, and Tyler Thornburg will all become free agents. Say what you want about Porcello, but he eats innings, comes with modest upside, and is signed to a fair deal. Thornburg may yet even play baseball. Finally, after 2020 Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, and Carson Smith will all hit free agency, leaving the team with a core of Eduardo Rodriguez, Rafael Devers, and Andrew Benintendi.

It’s entirely possible – perhaps even probable – that the team gets extensions done with key members of the team like Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts but it’s far from a sure thing. Dombrowski sure isn’t going to bank on those things happening, nor should he. Everything he has done as president of baseball operations has been to optimize this current window, when he knows he has these players under contract during the prime of their careers. The most important seasons for this team are the next two years, while Sale remains under contract. Next year is especially significant because the team has relatively few holes in the rotation and bullpen, but could use an offensive boost at first base and designated hitter positions, both specifically mentioned by Dombrowski in his press conference following John Farrell’s firing.

Meanwhile, the American League has gotten a whole lot better. The Yankees were one win away from the World Series with an enviable core of young controllable players. They are also primed to exit next year’s off-season with Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Dallas Keuchel as new members of their team. You might laugh, but this has been Brian Cashman’s plan all along. The team even has the space this offseason to sign an ace like Yu Darvish while still staying under the luxury tax threshold, resetting themselves for their upcoming spending spree.

That’s just the in-division threat. The Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians aren’t going anywhere, with large parts of their 100-win teams locked up for the next few seasons. Maybe Dombrowski picked a terrible time to push his chips in, but he had no choice but to maximize the current roster. It won’t be easy getting past the Yankees, Astros, and Indians, but there’s no way around them. They need to go right through.

Maybe Dombrowski picked a terrible time to push his chips in, but he had no choice but to maximize the current roster.

Dombrowski needs to go out and do what he does best and sign J.D. Martinez. He can’t stop there though, he needs at least one more bat, so maybe Eric Hosmer, or perhaps Giancarlo Stanton. If it was up to me, I’d cut Hanley Ramirez, play Martinez at DH and sign Hosmer to play first. But why stop there? Dombo should sign a quality lefty reliever like Mike Minor or Jake McGee and then call it a day. Will he obliterate the luxury tax threshold by doing this? Yes, but so what? The Dodgers have had payrolls upward of $271 million over the last few years, and they’re in the World Series.

The bottom line is that when Dombrowski recognizes a need, he goes out and addresses that need. He doesn’t take any half measures; he addresses needs with full force. For a team that had a likability problem in 2017, changing managers was a great idea. Let’s give the new manager the tools he needs to succeed in 2018 and beyond. I think John Henry and the rest of the ownership group will find out that long playoff runs and lineups that can hit will make back any additional money spent on payroll. When the duck boats cruise past Government Center, the last thing we will all be thinking about is the luxury tax threshold.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

We’ve entered into a time when the talent base in Major League Baseball is as stratified as it’s been in a long time, possibly since free agency took hold. This 2017 season featured three 100-win teams, the Dodgers, Astros, and Cleveland. If you believe pythagorean record though, the Yankees should also be added to that list, as their runs scored and allowed numbers were those of a 100-62 team. That only intensifies the situation the Red Sox find themselves in. Over the past 14 seasons (as far back as I looked) there are two seasons with multiple 100-win teams: 2004 and this past season. Obviously there is only one season over that time period that featured more than two 100-win teams: the 2017 season. For Boston, this means three incredibly talented franchises are standing in the way of a World Series win, four if you include the Yankees, and really, why wouldn’t you? That’s a daunting landscape.

The fact that three of those four are in the American League should be downright terrifying if you work on Yawkey Way. This sets the bar extremely high to win a World Series. Just look at what the Yankees will have to do to win this year’s World Series. They beat the 102-win Indians, and they’re likely to beat the 101-win Astros. Their reward should they accomplish that? They get to play the 104-win Dodgers! That has to be about the most brutal stretch of postseason play imaginable! The only other team I can recall who bested multiple 100-win teams in a single postseason was the 2004 Red Sox, who beat the 101-win Yankees and the 105-win Cardinals, but also beat the 92-win Angels in the first round. Otherwise, this level of competition is unprecedented, yet this is exactly what the 2018 Red Sox are likely to face.

So how does a team deal with this kind of competition – a kind of competition that hasn’t been seen in baseball at least for the past few decades, if ever? There are multiple ways of looking at things. The Red Sox could subscribe to what we’ll call the Billy Beane Theory, which says, roughly, just make the playoffs and whatever happens after that is out of your control. The problem with that is it’s only sort of true. Luck plays a huge role in any small sample of baseball games, but even so, it’s incredibly infrequent that a bad team, or even a team you couldn’t make an argument for as one of the best teams in baseball, wins the World Series. It does happen (2011 Cardinals, 2006 Cardinals), but it’s infrequent at best. And just considering the competition, it seems like a poor bet to make. The other part is one of those 100-win teams is in Boston’s division, and the other two are in the other two divisions, so right off you’re competing with the rest of the American League for the Wild Card.

So perhaps the Red Sox should go out and sign J.D. Martinez and trade for Giancarlo Stanton and do more and more and become another 100-win franchise. The problem with that is where the Red Sox are financially. They managed to stay under the luxury cap in 2017 so the tax rate for going over has now dropped substantially, but there is still a penalty. The luxury tax threshold will be $197 million for 2018 and the Red Sox are at $146 million in guarantees before signing anyone eligible for arbitration. Cutting to the end of the page, Cot’s Contracts estimates the Red Sox to be at $202 million, or $5 million over the cap, before making any additions. For context, the Dodgers spent in the neighborhood of $245 million this season. If the Red Sox are going to go out and give Martinez $20 million and take on Stanton’s contract which will pay him $30 a season going forward, you’re talking about blowing past the Dodgers payroll. Maybe that’s doable for an ownership group that really wants to win another World Series. Maybe the finances are set now that the penalties have been lowered and the team is ready to go all in. Dave Dombrowski is an all-in kind of guy, as we’ve seen. But Pablo Sandoval is making $18.5 million next season and again the season after that. Then, in 2020, there’s a $5 million buyout, but you can take most of those savings and flush them down the nearest toilet because that is also the season that Rusney Castillo’s contract goes from $11 million a season to $14 million. The next is Rick Porcello’s last at $21.125 million per season. That’s a lot of money over a lot of years, and most of it isn’t likely to do much to help the Red Sox on the field.

Bringing on a player of [Stanton’s] caliber means the Red Sox are committing to spending over the luxury tax threshold for the foreseeable future.

Again, here’s that word “maybe.” Maybe the way the Red Sox dealt with Sandoval and, to a lesser but still significant extent, Castillo, is the new way forward. Damn the torpedoes and all of that, but that seems unlikely. It’s not as sexy, granted, but maybe there’s another win in Jackie Bradley’s bat, and two more in Andrew Benintendi if he can avoid an extended midseason slump, and two more in Mookie Betts’ bat while we’re at it, and I couldn’t tell you how many more but a lot more in every part of Xander Bogaerts. Take all that and add a healthy David Price – the guy the organization made a $217 million bet on, remember – and someone tell Rick Porcello to stop throwing belt high 90 mph heaters and before you know it there’s 98, 99, or 100 wins. Maybe.

Would J.D. Martinez help that cause? You better believe it. Would Stanton? A million times over, yes. But what would be the long term impact of bringing one or both or a similar player to Boston? The Red Sox are a New England institution to be sure, but Fenway isn’t growing more seats and NESN can only broadcast 162 games a year. Revenues might go up a bit, but bringing on a player of that caliber means the Red Sox are committing to spending over the luxury tax threshold for the foreseeable future. This of course only gets worse if you want to sign Mookie Betts or Benintendi or Devers to a long term contract.

It’s an extremely tough choice Dave Dombrowski finds himself with. Is it reasonable, or realistic even, to squeeze out seven or eight more wins from this roster that has seemed to peter out at 93 over the past two seasons? That argument can be made. But what is the cost of that not happening? What if this team doesn’t add those wins? What if Price isn’t healthy? What if he is?

The Red Sox are going to spend a lot of money in 2018, that much is for certain. What they get for it is less known. So maybe they should spend more. Or maybe that would sink them. The thing about forks in the road is you have to pick a direction because going straight ahead never works. If he’s not now, Dave Dombrowski is about to become aware of that.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

Hello! Welcome! I promised you good news so here it is: the Red Sox need good power hitters and (this is it!) there are two huge power threats available on the market in Giancarlo Stanton and J.D. Martinez. Both guys would look fantastic hitting fourth in Boston’s order next season. The bad news is both are bound to be expensive to acquire. But considering both Stanton and Martinez are exactly what the 2017 Red Sox lacked in their lineup, let’s skip the logistics and go right to the fun part: which player should the team target?

Stanton is perceived to be the truer talent of the two with Martinez a later arrival to the top tier of power hitters. It’s true Stanton has elite power, on par with any player in the game. He’s slugged over .600 three times and hit 34, 37, 37, and this season, 59 homers. Martinez doesn’t have quite that level of pop with his only .600 slugging percentage coming this season. However, it was .690, a level Stanton has never reached before.

So this is interesting. Sticking with slugging percentage, Martinez had the higher slugging percentage this season. How about over the last two seasons though? Probably Stanton, right? Nope, Martinez, .610 to .573. How about over the past three seasons? There Martinez isn’t the leader because they’re tied at .580 apiece. Over the past four seasons Martinez is ahead by one single point .574 to .573. I was surprised by this!

Of course, slugging percentage isn’t everything. Home runs aren’t everything either but they count for a lot and Stanton has many more than Martinez, over the past year, the past two, or what ever time frame you want to pick. Martinez has more doubles and triples which is why his slugging percentage is on par with Stanton’s.

If you want to evaluate offense though BP’s stat Total Average (TAv) is a far better barometer of overall performance, and there Stanton beats Martinez every season going back. Sometimes it’s close, sometimes not, but Stanton has always been the superior hitter. As far as the rest of baseball goes, i.e. defense and base running, WARP has you covered. There Stanton’s numbers dwarf Martinez for the simple reason that Stanton is a serviceable right fielder while Martinez is a butcher (according to the numbers) who murders plays in the dead of night with a fork. It’s unclear how applicable that would be though, as were he to come to Boston, Martinez might be the left fielder, and maybe playing the smallest outfield spot in the majors half the time would blunt the negativity of his defense, but he also might fit better at DH with some time at first base. Look at me getting into the weeds when I said I wouldn’t.

There are two things that stand out about Stanton though when compared to Martinez. Firstly, he’s younger. Stanton just finished his age-27 season while Martinez just completed his age-29. Those are two prime years Stanton has over Martinez, which are very valuable. According to what we know about player aging, Stanton should continue at roughly this talent level for the next season or two before declining while Martinez’s decline starts next season.

Second is health. Stanton has a reputation as a player who has been hit with a bunch of injuries, and he has. He’s only played 145 games in a season three times in his eight years, though he was brought up to the majors in June of his age-20 season and played 100 games that year. So if we’re being fair, Stanton has remained mostly healthy four out of his eight seasons. Martinez though has been about as healthy as Stanton. Over the past two seasons Martinez has played 120 and 119 games, and four seasons ago, his first in Detroit, he managed just 123 games. Over the past four seasons, the seasons in which he was an outstanding hitter, Martinez has played in just 23 more games than Stanton.

In the end, Stanton has been the superior player, both at the plate and in the field, and likely will be in the future as well given their respective ages. Where things get debatable is when you start comparing the cost to acquire them. Martinez is a free agent and as he was traded mid-season, he isn’t eligible to receive a qualifying offer, meaning signing him won’t cost a draft pick. If the Red Sox get Martinez, they will have sacrificed only money.

Stanton has been the superior player, and likely will be in the future as well given their respective ages. Where things get debatable is when you start comparing the cost to acquire them.

Stanton is different. He will cost money, lots and lots of money, but he will cost players, too. Stanton will make $77 million over the next three seasons at which time he’ll have the opportunity to opt out. If he doesn’t, the team will be on the hook for another seven seasons for $208 million. That’s fine if Stanton is a huge power threat and a five-to-six win player most seasons. (It’ll look even more fine after Bryce Harper and Manny Machado hit free agency following the 2018 season.) Still though, the overall cost of acquiring Stanton from the Marlins for presumably good players and/or prospects – in addition to taking on almost $300 million in future salary obligations – is massive, and far greater than what it will cost to sign Martinez. The Red Sox have prospects to trade, but does the difference between Stanton and Martinez justify giving them up?

Stanton may be the potential Hall of Fame hitter in his prime, but Martinez is pretty good, too. The Red Sox have a choice to make. They can’t really go wrong with either as far as their 2018 lineup is concerned. As is usually the case though, things are far more complicated than that.

Photo by Matt Kartozian – USA TODAY Sports

It’s now been three days since the Red Sox lost the series we all expected them to lose, and we’ve all had some time to reminisce on what went right, what went wrong, and that Rafael Devers inside-the-park home run. Brett Cowett summed up the ALDS pretty thoroughly, so we won’t go there again, and if you really want to find more obituaries, I’m sure Dan Shaughnessy wrote a reasonable, not-at-all-incendiary one that you can find somewhere. So let’s talk about what comes next.

There are seasons that require overhauls and seasons that require tinkering – this season falls under the latter.

On the surface, this Red Sox team seems pretty set. They have one of the more enviable rosters in the league, full of young stars on affordable contracts. They have all the money in the world and from all accounts aren’t going to pay the luxury tax any mind when it comes to crafting an offseason approach. They won 93 games for the second straight year and have reason to believe that trotting out the exact same roster next year would net them even more than that. There are seasons that require overhauls and seasons that require tinkering – this season falls under the latter.

With that said, the Red Sox certainly have some question marks. An argument can – and probably will – be made about about how significant those question marks are, but they’re still question marks nonetheless. The fact of the matter is that this is a young, talented team that’s been significantly overwhelmed in the first round of the playoffs for two straight years. While I personally feel that we’re not there quite yet, an underwhelming ALDS appearance is going to stop being good enough pretty soon. It’s the double-edged sword of playing in Boston – you’re going to get your chances to play on a winning team, but first-round exits can’t be the status quo for long. So what are the biggest questions for this team, in this window?

John Farrell

This will more than likely be the first issue the team addresses, as people seem to expect a decision about his fate as early as the end of this week. Last year, Dombrowski came out almost immediately after the team’s playoff exit and reaffirmed that Farrell was the guy, so there’s no reason to think the team will dilly-dally with a decision this time around.

The decision with Farrell, in my opinion, isn’t nearly as cut-and-dry as people want to make it out to be. He’s not the reason they’re not winning World Series titles. He’s a capable manager and does seem to generally have the support of the clubhouse – or at least its more vocal leaders. Bobby Valentine found out what happens when Dustin Pedroia wants you fired, and Pedroia’s post-game quotes about Farrell were generally supportive.

On the other hand, Deven Marrero started a playoff game and Brandon Workman had an at-bat in the 2013 World Series. If you want to see what another manager brings to the table, I don’t blame you.

Hanley Ramirez 

My guess is that his ALDS performance probably helped him regain some trust, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if his roster security isn’t set in stone. He’s not a first baseman; you know that, I know that, and the Red Sox know that. He deserves kudos for giving it more of a shot than he gave left field, but it’s just not a feasible fit going forward. His .253 TAv was the worst of his career, as was his .242 batting average. His wOBA, wRC+ and ISO all cratered as well. He’s owed 22 million dollars next season, which makes him especially difficult to trade. The best Red Sox lineup probably doesn’t include him anymore. Maybe he has a bounce-back year next season – people thought he was cooked after his abysmal 2015 campaign – but the shoulder issues keep cropping up. The Red Sox can’t afford to waste a power position like DH or 1B on someone who can no longer hit for power, which brings me to…

First Base

This is what I view as the most interesting on-field dilemma the Red Sox have to face this offseason. The pragmatic approach says resign Mitch Moreland, and quite honestly, I don’t hate it. Moreland was excellent when healthy this year, and could be retained for a fraction of what the other options represent. But making the cost-efficient, practical signing is to Dave Dombrowksi what using Craig Kimbrel in non-traditional save situations is to John Farrell – it’s just not going to happen. There are dingers to be bought, and Dave is surely not interested in hearing about how the Red Sox are the worst power-hitting team in the league all next summer. Here’s your obligatory Giancarlo Stanton mention, because you just might as well get used to it now. Eric Hosmer will be attached to the team’s hip, and Joey Votto presents an intriguing option in the sense that he is 1. a good first baseman and 2. that’s it. Good first basemen, regardless of feasibility, will be linked to the Red Sox all winter, solely because Dave Dombrowski runs this team and has a few young, talented outfielders to burn. The team clearly needs some power hitting, and where or who it comes from figures to be the team’s biggest winter storyline.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

1. Opening Day is going to be very underwhelming. 

Take this with a grain of salt, because even the worst Opening Day is still great. The Red Sox do, however, basically have the worst Opening Day. The pros? The season starts in March (March 29th, to be specific) which is nice from a patience perspective. Spring training is entirely too long, and late March always seems to drag on. Playing baseball that counts in the month of March is always a good thing, even if the team scores two runs a game while wearing sweatshirts under their jerseys for the first three weeks.

The schedulers were cruel, however, and decided that the Red Sox would be opening the 2018 season IN Tampa Bay. Not only that, but the Red Sox will begin the season with a four-game series in Tampa, before heading on to Miami for two games. That is a LOT of empty, indoor games to start the season.

2. June looks like the toughest month.

There’s obviously a lot of time between now and next year for teams to improve/get worse. This time last year, the Astros were 10 games worse than they are this year and 10.5 games back in the AL West. Things change from year to year. With that said, June’s looking like a doozy.

For starters, the big road trip of the month goes starts with three games in Baltimore, goes through Seattle for a weekend series, and ends in Minnesota. That’s a lot of frequent flier miles. The road trip is one of four three-city road trips the team takes this season, and is unquestionably the most grueling. After what will surely be a day game in Baltimore on a Wednesday, the team will turn around and play in Seattle the next day. Speaking as someone who has flown from BWI to Seattle, I can attest to just how unpleasant it is. I can’t imagine anyone will be thrilled about playing a baseball game later that day.

That is, in theory, a lot of winnable games. A September series in Atlanta and a series at home against the Mets could provide valuable opportunities to play catch up or build a comfortable lead.

3. They’re matched up the NL East next year, which is good news. 

The NL East is not good this year. You have the Nationals, and that’s about it. In fact, the Nationals are the only team in the NL East that are above .500. This contradicts the point I made about teams being drastically different on a year-by-year basis, but do you really think any NL East time is going to be good next year? There’s not an overwhelming amount of optimism for the Marlins, Braves, Mets, and Phillies being much better next season. The Braves are in rebuild, the Phillies are in full-tank, the Marlins are about to slash a BUNCH of payroll for the 500th time in their 20-year history, and the Mets are the Mets. That is, in theory, a lot of winnable games. A September series in Atlanta and a series at home against the Mets could provide valuable opportunities to play catch up or build a comfortable lead.

Also, they’re playing in D.C. on 4th of July. That’s fun because 1. the Nationals are good 2. the 4th of July game in DC is always special and 3. I live in DC. This paragraph is really just me gloating about going to the 4th of July game next year.

4. The schedule is backloaded with home games…again. 

Like the Boston.com article notes, the Sox will play 15 of their last 21 games at home. After the All-Star break, the team plays six series on the road and seven at home, including four of their last six series being at Fenway. Their last road trip of the year is three games in Cleveland followed by three games in New York, which could be trouble, but finishing at home is always the better option. The Red Sox currently have the 2nd-best home record (44-27) in baseball, as only the Dodgers have been better in their home park. In fact, over the last decade, the team has only had a sub-.500 record at home twice. If the season’s going to come down to the final week, I’ll take my chances with them at Fenway.

5. Giancarlo Stanton won’t have to wait long to make his first return to Miami as a member of the Red Sox.

He’ll only have to wait four days, as the Red Sox play Miami in the 2nd series of the year.

For what it’s worth, J.D. Martinez will have to wait until late July to make his return to Detroit.

Photo by Winslow Townson – USA TODAY Sports

It is hard to put numbers to this, admittedly. Watching the team though, you got a sense there was something missing. Not just Ortiz the man, but the team was missing something vital, the keystone to a bridge or the top of a pyramid. Initially I expected Dustin Pedroia to take over that role from Ortiz and Pedroia has to some extent. However, there is still something missing. Maybe it’s because Pedroia hasn’t had the MVP-type season this year, or because he’s struggled with injuries, or simply because, through no fault of his own, Pedroia isn’t Ortiz. Whatever it is, the star power on the field and the will to win that Ortiz exerted haven’t been there.

Teams can win without “star power” and winning clubhouses are happy clubhouses, usually in that order. But having watched this team all year long, there has been something missing. It’s like a decent chili that doesn’t have that kick.

I know this probably sounds like some hocus-pocus-y crap. Teams can win without “star power” and winning clubhouses are happy clubhouses, usually in that order. But having watched this team all year long, there has been something missing. It’s like a decent chili that doesn’t have that kick. Or a car that looks good and runs fine, but there isn’t any extra when you really put the pedal down. I know this kind of analysis is maybe more suited for the mainstream media than Baseball Prospectus, or even your high school cousin’s Red Sox blogspot page. And yet I can’t shake this thought: it isn’t a coincidence that the Red Sox came back in the ninth inning Wednesday, on a night when Xander Bogaerts homered and Mookie Betts had three hits.

Those have been rare events especially lately this season. Bogaerts hit 21 homers last season. He has seven now and his slugging percentage is down 40 points from last season. Betts has been fine overall. His WAR numbers look good because he’s a fantastic baserunner and an exquisite fielder. But offensively he’s taken a couple steps back from last year. The on-base is down 20 points and the power is down 80 points.

There are reasons for those downturns in performance, of course. Bogaerts has been dealing with injuries, playing through them because the team needed him on the field, even though his performance suffered for it. Betts has been healthy (as far as we know) but pitchers have been beating him to death with sliders and he’s worked himself into some bad habits. It’s not a coincidence that the Red Sox had their worst month in July (they went 13-14), with Bogaerts hitting .163/.227/.225 and Betts hitting .243/.313/.383.

The Red Sox have gone 11-2 in August which you could say kinda blows my argument that the Red Sox are now Mookie and Xander’s team out of the water, because neither guy has done much beyond mere adequacy since the calendar flipped. But the point isn’t that Mookie and Xander won those 11 games by themselves. It’s not that they did anything to win those games at all. It’s that if this Red Sox team is going to do anything special, anything worth remembering, it’s going to be with those two driving the bus.

And that’s not just 2017. It goes for the next few seasons as well. Despite protestations to the contrary, the 2018 Red Sox aren’t likely to feature Giancarlo Stanton, or for that matter, Manny Machado or Mike Trout. Stanton ain’t coming through that door, people. And while it would be exciting, in the end it isn’t necessary if Mookie and Xander play like the superstars they can be. Betts doesn’t have to finish second in the MVP and Xander doesn’t have to have hit 21 homers every season, but for this iteration of the Red Sox to do anything, those two have to be the David Ortiz. They have to stand up and deliver. They have to bring it when it needs to be brought.

Which brings us back to the ninth inning against St. Louis two nights ago. Down 4-2 with Xander up, Red Sox fans were hoping for an infield single. Maybe a pop-up down the line that falls in. Something lucky needs to happen because Xander simply hasn’t been hitting the ball hard. And then he did! And it went over the monster! That was…unexpected. I’m not sure that ball is out at any other ballpark, and I wouldn’t claim he got all of it (it may have gone higher than it did far) but I’ll be damned if it didn’t count either way. That at-bat was the best possible outcome, both for that night and the future.

Then, down a run with two outs and runners on first and second, Mookie Betts came up. Mookie’s clutch stats are all over the map this year, which makes sense given what we know about clutchness. With two outs and runners in scoring position he has a .972 OPS (good). In late and close situations (defined by Baseball Reference) he has a .745 OPS (bad). This situation was late and close and there were two outs and a runner in scoring position (???). And Mookie lined one off the wall scoring two runs for the win. Huge. Simply huge.

Look, I know the ball he hit wasn’t scorched and I know it was a slider that didn’t slide, but like Xander, Mookie hit it hard enough. Performing when you don’t have your best stuff isn’t always pretty, but both guys made it happen on Wednesday when the team needed them to the most.

The 2017 season has yet to fully unfold, but what we do know now is that this Red Sox team needs both Mookie and Xander if they’re going to win the division and make noise in the playoffs. But I’d argue their contribution to the Red Sox is bigger than that, just like that of Ortiz before them and Pedro before him. This team for the next few seasons will be defined by the successes and failures of Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts. Other players will come and go and make impacts (good and bad) while they are here, but this Red Sox team belongs to and depends on Betts and Bogaerts. That was never more clear than Wednesday night, when, lit by Fenway’s lights and scored by its crowd, Mookie stood center stage, arms outstretched and beaming in a shower of red Gatorade. It’s good to have a king again. It’s even better to have two.

Photo by David Butler II – USA TODAY Sports