Going Deep

The Red Sox front office has a lot of work to do this offseason to mould the roster into a collection of talent that will win more often than it loses. According to Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com (and really anyone else who attended last week’s press conference), Dave Dombrowski is focused on improving the pitching staff. The best way to go about doing so remains unclear. Sign free agents? Trade prospects/younger players? While the Red Sox tend to have one of the highest payrolls in the game, it seems clear that not all of the changes to the roster are going to come through free-agency. Signing a free agent like David Price will keep all those precious, budding prospects in the system, but it does not come without other risks. Alex Speier reminds us that big spending does not always correspond to winning; in fact the correlation between payroll and winning is at a low point. Trading a package of prospects/younger players (e.g., Rafael Devers, Anderson Espinoza, Jackie Bradley Jr., Blake Swihart) to get a frontline starter like Sonny Gray seems like a reasonable approach. But, as you know, starting pitching is not the only thing that needs considering, Tim Britton, of the Providence Journal, explores free agent and trade options for fixing the bullpen. In the end, the way to best improve the club’s pitching staff is not likely to be to go all-in on path A (free agents) or path B (trades). Taking a measured approach and integrating the two sounds like the right path.

Seven of the ten playoff teams this year finished in the top-12 for home run totals this season. The Pirates, Royals, and Cardinals are the only three teams that finished lower (23rd, 24th, and 25th, respectively). The phrase Joe Sheehan has been championing this postseason appears to be correct: “ball go far, team go far.” The Red Sox finished 15^th in home runs last season with 161, ten behind the 12th place Cubs. To some extent the Sox were a team that had difficulty hitting for power; their isolated slugging of .149 was a tick below league average (.150), ranking 17th in the game. These numbers prompted Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe to wonder who will generate power for the Red Sox in 2016. Better seasons from Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval will ameliorate some of the power problem, but might the front office need to acquire someone who can hit some bombs? Someone like free agent first baseman Chris Davis? Maybe, but that move necessitates trading Hanley Ramirez, or pressing reset on the left field experiment, which seems less than ideal. For what it is worth Dombrowski has said that he is comfortable with the team’s power, and likes that they did not strike out a lot (18.4 K% was fourth lowest in baseball). Power is not the only issue the offense had last season, though. Another concern, pointed out by Alex Speier in his 108 Stitches newsletter, is that the offense was only good at Fenway:

Home: .290/.349/.451 (.160 ISO; 80 HR)

Away: .241/.302/.382 (.139 ISO; 81 HR)

It is true that overall Fenway is a hitter’s park, but not as dramatically as those numbers suggest. Perhaps assuming the offense is a clear strength is not entirely correct. While they did score a lot of runs last year, there are deficiencies to consider. Regardless, given Dombrowski’s comments in Cafardo’s article and his stated priority of improving the pitching, it seems doubtful that the team will make a major acquisition on the offensive side of the ball.

Quick Hits

The catcher position was a bit of an on-the-fly adventure for the Red Sox in 2015. Peter Abraham writes that the Red Sox will benefit from the depth they have at the position, as Christian Vazquez will resume his place as the starter, and Blake Swihart, Ryan Hanigan and Sandy Leon can fill in as backups. Alternatively, Swihart can be used as a trade chip to improve other areas of the team, like the rotation. Ian Browne of MLB.com had similar thoughts on the Red Sox’s options at catcher.

One of the fun parts of the 2015 season was watching the Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo outfield. But, as good as they looked, Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com reminds us that starting jobs are not yet guaranteed for two of these three players, and that the Red Sox will look to add outfield depth to their roster. It will be difficult but Mastrodonato suggests that trading the suddenly inept Allen Craig could be part of this venture, or as part of a move aimed at repairing another aspect of the team, like, say, the bullpen.

Dustin Pedroia is revered in Boston for his scrappy, always-play-hard, can-do attitude. But in recent seasons this approach has contributed to injury and the desire to rush rehab efforts in order to get back on the field. Ironically, doing so can lead to more time on the disabled list, or diminished performance upon return. Pedroia talked to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com about the hamstring injury he suffered this past season, how his returning to play too early was costly and his regret for not allowing himself more time to heal.

I think that any time Pedro Martinez reflects on his time in Boston it is a must-read (or listen, or watch). The latest is Pedro talking with Chad Finn of Boston.com about his six-inning, no-hit relief performance in Game 5 of the 1999 American League Division Series (ALDS) against the vaunted offense of the Cleveland Indians. Pedro was pitching hurt that day. Last year, he told Jonah Keri of Grantland that his relief-outing in the 1999 ALDS permanently damaged his arm.

How about another article about a former-Red Sox great? Jim Litke of the Associated Press writes about Manny Ramirez’s current role as a coach (of some sort) with the Chicago Cubs. Manny is being Manny, primarily helping the younger, hispanic players on the club, but is also around to talk hitting with anyone who will listen.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Despite the loss, the top play of the game came from the Yankees side. After the Red Sox scored six times in the top of the first, the game looked like a foregone conclusion. But the Yanks got right back within striking distance in the bottom half of the opening frame. After having already pushed across two runs via a double, single, fielders choice and another double, Dustin Ackley smacked a two-run home run to right field (WPA: + .135) to get the Yankees within two.

As it turned out, the three-run home-run that Blake Swihart had hit in the top of the first inning (WPA: + .092) – his first of two home runs on the night – gave the Red Sox all the cushion they would need to win.

Bottom Play (WPA): With the Red Sox leading 7-4, Brett Gardner led off the bottom of the fifth inning with a single. At the time it was not entirely clear that Rick Porcello had settled in to the outing having had the rough first inning, and an eventful fourth in which he allowed a single and hit a batter. However, right after Gardner’s single he got Alex Rodriguez to hit into a 5-4-3 double play (WPA: – .081), which was started nicely by Deven Marrero.

Key Moment: Ackley’s home run in the bottom of the first got the Yankees to within a bloop-and-blast of tying the game. The score remained 6-4 until the top of the fifth, when Mookie Betts led off the inning with a solo home run to left field (WPA: + .085) that increased the Red Sox’s lead to a slightly more comfortable level. Always nice to see the #feats of Mookie on display.

Not so much a key moment on-field-wise, but a fun one came in the top of the sixth when Jerry Remy provided a funny story about playing wiffle ball with a guy who “played a little college ball.” The basic summary of the story is that Remy did not like a guy who was invited to a charity wiffle ball game. The guy was making sure to inform people that he had “played a little ball” and was taking things too seriously, striking everyone out when the intention of the event was to allow hits and encourage fun. In his chance at bat in the game Jerry wanted to send the guy a message but ended up grounding out meekly to second base. It still haunts him. You really need to hear him tell the story to be aware of how much it still bothers him. Regardless, the rapport between Jerry and Don Orsillo allows for this sort of story to happen on air. Don only has a few more games left in the Red Sox booth, so hopefully we get a few more Don and Jerry moments like this before Don is gone to his next stop.

Trend to Watch: As noted above, the game featured home runs from Mookie Betts and Blake Swihart. Seeing young players still hit for power this deep into a season is a welcome sign. Tim Britton pointed out on Twitter that the six home runs by the Red Sox in this series have been hit by players who are 25 years-old or younger. The two guys who went deep in last night’s game, Betts and Swihart, have higher slugging percentages in the second half than in the first. While Betts has moved up only a little bit from .464 to .480, Swihart has shown a large jump in performance, going from .323 to .415. Experience is certainly a factor in this improvement, so it is not only nice to see some evidence of learning/adjusting, but it is also great that fatigue from playing a longer season has not sapped them of their power. These are good signs for 2016.

Coming next: Game three of the series starts tomorrow at 7:05pm EDT with Wade Miley heading to the hill to take on the Yankees for the fourth time this season. Miley has struggled against the Yankees this year, posting a 5.60 RA9 against them, although his 2.97 FIP in those contests points to his pitching better than the results indicate. He will need to maintain his effectiveness as he progresses through the game better than he did in his last start (against the Rays last Thursday), when a rough sixth inning undid an otherwise solid outing. The Red Sox offense will be in for a tough challenge against Yankees’ starter Masahiro Tanaka (3.74 RA9, 3.95 FIP on the season), who has already beat them three times this season. However, in his outings against the Sox, Tanaka has been less than sharp, posting a 5.71 RA9 (5.15 FIP). Tanaka is coming back to the Yankees rotation after missing time with a hamstring injury, so the Sox’ offense can look to take advantage of any lingering issue and continue their reasonable success against him.

Photo by Anthony Gruppuso/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): The Red Sox’s offense was really clicking last night. In the top of the third inning they scored three times to take a 4-0 lead. Two of the three runs came on a two-out, two-run home run to deep left field by Dustin Pedroia (WPA: .152). The home run was Pedroia’s second since returning from the disabled list, and his first of two on the night. He smacked a two-out, three-run bomb to deep left in the top of the fourth inning that put the game out of reach. While you are here, why not watch the laser show:

Two-run shot in the third inning:

Three-run shot in the fourth inning:

Bottom Play (WPA): After the Red Sox put a three-spot on the board in the top of the third inning, the Orioles started off well in the bottom half of the inning. Gerardo Parra led off and roped a single up the middle, the first real hard contact off Henry Owens. But then J.J. Hardy promptly grounded into a 4-6-3 double play (WPA: – .058). The double play included a really nice turn around the second base bag by Deven Marrero, who made his first major league start at shortstop, which is his natural position.

Key Moment: It is not really a single moment, but getting 7.2 innings from Henry Owens was pretty great. It was especially nice that his solid outing came the night after the previous starter, Joe Kelly, did not get out of the third inning due to injury, and then the game went to extra innings, forces that combined to have Torey Lovullo use nine pitchers on the night. Owens did not just eat up innings; he also pitched really well. He had all four of his pitches working, getting swings and misses on one quarter of the changeups and sliders he threw (11/43). Owens allowed no runs on six hits, struck out four, and, critically, walked nobody. All told, it was a promising start against a pretty decent lineup.

Trend to Watch: If the Red Sox keep winning, things will get more interesting in terms of the draft and signing any player that receives a qualifying offer (QO) (e.g., David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmerman). The Red Sox’s better play of late has moved them up to being the 10^th worst team in baseball (yay!). If this holds they will get the 10^th overall pick in next summer’s first year player draft. This is interesting because a top-10 pick is a good thing, and players taken in the top 10 tend to have more successful careers. But it is also interesting because the 10^th pick is the last pick that is protected, meaning they would not have to relinquish it if they were to sign a free agent that received a QO. So the ideal situation is that the Red Sox play interesting ball over the remaining 17 games, but don’t play well enough to advance their league standing above 10^th worst. This way we get to see decent baseball for the rest of the month, the team gets a top-10 player in the draft, and they can sign a top-level pitcher to fortify next years rotation without worrying about losing said draft pick. That is a beautiful scenario.

Coming next: The Red Sox have an off day tomorrow and then head to Toronto for a weekend series with the division-leading Blue Jays. The Red Sox will send Rick Porcello to the mound on Friday night, who has been great lately, but the ridiculous Blue Jays’ offense, which is even more ridiculous in the Rogers Centre, will present a tough test. Hopefully he can keep up his streak of solid outings. The Jays will counter with Marcus Stroman. Stroman will be making only his second major league start this season, a result of tearing his ACL during Spring Training. Stroman was for the most part sharp in his first outing last weekend against the Yankees in New York. The Red Sox offense should look to take advantage of a pitcher who is still getting acclimated to pitching regularly. The surge to finish in third continues!

Photo by Evan Habeeb/USA Today Sports Images