April wasn’t the best month for Benny. He couldn’t get anything in the air (44 percent groundball rate) nor could he do anything with the fly balls he did hit (3.7 percent HR/FB rate), and those two teamed up to bring about Stone Age levels of power from the outfielder. Compounding this was the fact that Benintendi seemed more passive than patient at the plate to begin with. It’s not a bad thing to take pitches, not at all — it’s a bad thing when you’re taking hittable pitches, much less pitches you can drive. It’s nice that your OBP is .350, but with context like, say, an OPS of .740, it doesn’t look so pristine. That was his reality in April. Nothing looked terrible, just mediocre. But mediocre is a disappointment for someone with Benintendi’s potential, especially after what he had shown over the last eight-to-nine months of baseball in the major leagues.

It was more than a little worrying at first, especially when it came to thinking about how the season would go — the Red Sox could certainly boast that they had the best outfield unit in the majors, sure, but when Jackie Bradley Jr. can’t hit and Benintendi looks more content with passivity than action in his plate appearances, it definitely doesn’t look that way, no matter how many dingers J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts combine for. When it came to the offense, no one really expected Bradley to hit, but Benintendi? He needed to hit, as a very polished 23-year-old who just had a 20-20 season. The defense, though? Still good. Baserunning? Still a dumpster fire. At least those two aspects stayed that way, so you knew what you were getting with those.

But here we are on June 12th, and no one’s worried anymore.

Benintendi was a force of nature in May, pulling off a stunning rebound from his docile April self. He got a lot more balls in the air (45 percent fly ball rate), did more damage with them (14 percent HR/FB rate), and damn near doubled his power output, seeing his Isolated Power mark rise from .174 to .284. Statcast is still a huge fan of his, as he’s now 17th in the league in average exit velocity, and his 18 barrels are good for 8th. That homer above? That was a barreled baseball that got sent 437 feet. Benintendi is hitting something classified as “hard-hit” over 33 percent of the time. On average, every third batted ball is smoked. The kid is alright, it seems.

I’d like to say there was a deeper, number-crunching analysis of why he’s doing so well now as compared to the first month of the season, but he’s simply hitting the ball harder again, and not taking as many of the pitches he’s now crushing. Being a good hitter isn’t just waiting for a pitch — it’s also capitalizing on that pitch once you get it, be it a fastball in the wheelhouse or a slider that just won’t slide all the way across. Benintendi seems to have realized that, and has proceeded to make good contact and drive the ball once again. It’s not like this sudden surge of excellence was unexpected either, since his exit velocity and launch angle have been steadily increasing per season. He’s steadily upped the exit velo at least one mile per hour for each year he’s been in the majors, and his launch angle has been trending upwards as well. Take a look, y’all:

This is what Benintendi’s launch angle looked like 2017. Not a ton of hits in the 10-to-30 degree range, but the whole team had power issues last year, so he’s not alone in that. In 2018, however, he’s brought the rain:

That’s more like it. He’s getting some loud, hard contact in there now, and it’s starting to show.

Not only is the quality of the contact improving, everything else is coming along with it. Remember that passivity I talked about? Well, now he’s walking 12 percent of the time again, and he’s kept up the power numbers while doing that. June’s numbers are squarely in the small sample size camp, but you can’t help but be giddy when you see that beautiful .390 ISO under Benintendi’s name for the month. He’s back, and better than ever.

The best part is that even with his recent surge, he’s not really at risk of some regression. The vast majority of what he’s done and currently doing is pretty sustainable for him. His BABIP recently has been fairly normal, and his HR/FB rate isn’t some gaudy 25 percent or anything — it’s just a couple percentage points above what he did last year. Compared to last year, the one thing he’s done substantially more of is swing more often at pitches in the zone, which, considering his last six weeks, has been a boon so far.

Maybe Benintendi’s just a slow starter. We haven’t seen enough of his Aprils to really know. But it sure is nice to have him back on track to being that outfielder we thought he could be. There are few things sweeter in baseball than a smooth, left-handed swing, and seeing Benintendi’s knock a few baseballs over the fence again just makes it that much better.

Header photo by Tommy Gilligan — USA TODAY Sports

We all know that Moreland has been playing well and the desire to get him more playing time certainly factored into the decision to designate Hanley Ramirez for assignment on May 25th. What is shocking is just how good Moreland has been when you look at his numbers. Moreland is leading all American League first basemen with a .313 True Average while slashing .292/.355/.606. If you’re curious, that .606 slugging percentage is the best in the entire league among first basemen. Moreland has done this while being an above average defender at the position, placing him second in the AL in WARP at 0.83.

The only player ahead of Moreland in WARP is Jose Abreu, who is in the midst of another typical Abreu-like season with a WARP of 0.86. Since Ramirez was just recently designated for assignment, and received ample playing time before said transaction, Moreland had only appeared in 43 games this year, while Abreu has played in 54. Despite playing fewer games, they both have nine home runs on the season, and Abreu has just three more RBI, with 31. Moreland has been more effective on a game-by-game basis, has played better defense, and his .403 wOBA is clearly ahead of Abreu’s mark of .373. With Miguel Cabrera and Justin Smoak having down years, and Edwin Encarnacion only playing seven games at first base, the vote will surely come down to these two.

Like it or not, the fans have the vote in the All-Star game, and the Red Sox, by holding the best record in baseball, have drawn far more attention than the second-to-worst record amassed by the White Sox. It’s a little harsh to say, but few fans care about the White Sox right now. Abreu is wasted on that team, and likely won’t get the support he deserves when it comes to the voting. Should Abreu be traded to a contending team before the All-Star break, this could change, however, as popularity and success matter.

If Moreland does make the team it will be deserved, but it doesn’t mean he is anything close to the best first baseman in baseball. The National League side features Freedie Freeman, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt, Eric Hosmer, and Cody Bellinger, just to name a few. There are going to be some very deserving first basemen that don’t even make that roster as a reserve. By TAv, Moreland is behind Belt, Freeman, and Jesus Aguilar, and ahead of Goldy, Rizzo, Votto, and the rest. If he makes the team as a starter, this will not be a Brock Holt: 2015 All-Star situation.

The Statcast numbers back up what Moreland has been achieving this year, and show some real meaningful change. His average exit velocity is 93.6 mph, which is far and away better than his previous best of 91.4 mph in 2015, and up significantly from 89.1 mph last year. Moreland is making harder contact more frequently than ever before, posting a 53.3 percent hard-hit rate and a career-best barrels percentage at 13.3. Much of this has come from Moreland pulling the ball more than ever, at 49.5 percent of the time — up from 37.2 percent last season. Can he keep this up? Who knows? What we do know is that Moreland is swinging at more pitches in the zone than ever before at 72.5 percent, and is doing damage on those pitches.

His two-year, 13-million-dollar deal is looking more and more like a bargain, and an excellent investment on the part of Dave Dombrowski. This contract is a welcome departure from Pablo Sandoval, Ramirez, and Rusney Castillo, and for a deal that was largely panned coming into the season, Mitch Moreland has gone so far beyond anyone’s wildest expectations.

Header photo by Brian Fluharty — USA TODAY Sports

Martinez also leads the MLB in BABIP (batting average on balls in play), the infamous harbinger of regression, with a .402 mark. A BABIP in the .400s almost always signifies oncoming regression, but Martinez may avoid that because he’s hitting the ball hard more often than any other player and he’s been spraying the ball across fields.

Let’s also recognize that while .402 is a crazy high BABIP, it’s down from .427 just a week ago. The dip didn’t affect his counting numbers at all. In that week, Martinez racked up nine hits, five homers and eight RBI.

Martinez’s standard numbers aren’t dipping with his BABIP in part because he hits the ball very hard, very often. According to MLB.com Statcast data, Martinez hits the ball 95 mph or higher 59.1 percent of the time, the top mark in the MLB. He also hits the ball with an average exit velocity of 95.8 miles per hour, good for fourth in baseball behind Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge and Miguel Cabrera.

Additionally, Martinez barrels the ball up in 14.9 percent of his plate appearances, second in baseball only to teammate Mookie Betts (15.6). His line drive percentage is 23.6, on pace for his career-high for a full season.

In short, he hits the ball really hard. But also, he doesn’t hit the ball soft. This might seem redundant at first, but seriously, his soft-contact rate is glaringly low compared to the rest of the league. I included Betts in the chart to show some perspective.

Courtesy: Baseball Info Solutions

This means that Martinez is hitting the ball at a medium- or hard-contact rate over 95 percent of the time he makes contact.

Not only is the 30-year-old outfielder hitting the ball hard, he’s hitting them to the opposite field, too. Now, I won’t say all fields, because he’s not hitting it into centerfield as much, but his opposite-field percentage (36.2) is second in baseball to Cincinnati’s Scooter Gennett (37.7). Over the last couple of years, Martinez has steadily leveled out his field distribution.

Martinez’s opposite-field percentage took a five percent leap in his career year last season, when he batted .303 with 45 home runs and 104 RBI. The percentage has seen yet a larger increase in 2018, where he’s on pace to eclipse all three of those figures.

And while Martinez’s BABIP is high, that figure can be neutralized with sky-high hard contact numbers and effective field distribution: two figures that display much more skill than luck. If Martinez continues to hit the ball hard and spray his hits, he’ll likely be able to avoid regression and surpass his outstanding 2017 campaign.

It’ll never be time for “on pace for” jokes, but if the Red Sox do indeed hit 36 grand slams this year, that’ll be incredible at the very least. So let’s look at the sextet of slams this team has hit, and enjoy each and every one of them, because after last year, I don’t think we’ll ever fully appreciate the of majesty of a four-RBI knock. Soak it all in while you can.

Grand Slam #1 — April 7th

It says a lot about how hard that ball was hit when all the left fielder does is turn to watch it.

Xander Bogaerts had already lashed a two-run double in the first inning by this point, and I guess he felt the need to pour it on. Jacob Faria’s 3-2 pitch was a flat fastball right down the middle, and Bogaerts got all of it and sent it into orbit. It goes without saying, but Bogaerts with two healthy wrists is a monster.

This was sort of a cathartic moment for the Red Sox, as they hit their first grand slam since 2016, and the offense finally broke out in a big way against a team that had held them to 11 runs in four games the week before. The cure to those offensive woes? Score eight runs in the first two innings against said opponent. Four out of every five managers would agree.

Grant Slam #2 — April 10th

Splitters aren’t supposed to be left in the top of the zone. That grand slam is a pretty good example why.

With the game getting wildly out of hand for the New York Yankees, Aaron Boone left Chasen Shreve in the game to face a gauntlet of Red Sox hitters, who had already chased Luis Severino from the game after five innings of five-run ball. It already wasn’t going well, with the Sox scoring five times in the frame already, then Shreve left a splitter up in the zone that Betts turned into a souvenir.

If you’re going to miss with a splitter, miss down, since it’s a lot harder to hit a ball 400 feet if it’s in the dirt. That’s not going to do a lot of good for Shreve now, obviously, but it’s nice to know.

Grand Slam #3 — April 11th

The very next day? You betcha.

J.D. Martinez wasted zero time in clobbering a first-pitch splitter that hung over the center of the plate. Masahiro Tanaka’s splitter was certainly lower than Shreve’s, but still not low enough. This game had already been marred by David Price losing feeling in his hand and Gary Sanchez blasting two dingers, so seeing Martinez bring the Red Sox back into the game just like that was very exciting.

Of course, this was also the Joe Kelly Fight Club game, so the Red Sox would go on to lose, albeit in a combative way. But at least it was fun, as fun as a loss can be.

Grand Slam #4 — April 18th

This is probably the first pitch that wasn’t outright terrible. Tyler Skaggs kind of hangs a curveball that, to his credit, does end up at the bottom of the zone, but it also hovered over the heart of the plate. It wouldn’t have been so bad if he hadn’t already thrown two curveballs in the plate appearance, giving Rafael Devers an idea of what to look for. He was all over it, and knocked it over the new right field fence in Anaheim for his first career grand slam.

As with the other games in Anaheim, this one was a blowout. The Red Sox hit three homers and the pitching staff combined to only allow eight baserunners all game. At that point, a grand slam feels a little like showboating, but hey, I’m not an officer of the fun police.

Grand Slam #5 — April 20th

Three straight singles to left field to lead off the inning, and Kendall Graveman’s day was done. The Oakland Athletics elect to bring in Emilio Pagan, and before NESN goes to a commercial break, you see that shot of Mitch Moreland and the Red Sox coaches looking at some advance scouting reports. Once they come back to the game, Dave O’Brien hypes up Moreland a little bit, and then Moreland obliterates the first pitch he sees from Pagan.

That almost seems too good to be true, but seriously, that actually happened. The timing and camera shots could not have been better. Pagan hung a slider that caught the center of the plate — where have we seen that before, I wonder? — and Moreland was not about to let a mistake go unpunished. Or at least MLB’s website calls it a slider. I don’t know. It was a garbage pitch regardless. Do better, Emilio.

Grand Slam #6 — April 30th

Bogaerts’ grand slams always seem to have a certain majesty to them, don’t they?

Jason Hammel seemingly tries to jam Bogaerts with a high inside fastball, but Bogaerts, as O’Brien said, jumped all over it. On a 3-2 count yet again, Bogaerts gets a fastball to clobber, and clobber it he did. The Red Sox were sputtering here, as Eduardo Rodriguez was 1. not sharp and 2. getting squeezed by the C.B. Bucknor Strike Zone™, so they really needed the offense to come alive, and so it did, thanks to Bogaerts. Bonus points are awarded to Christian Vazquez for his dance in the dugout.

When a team ties a record for grand slams a year after hitting none of them, there’s no way you don’t try and appreciate what they’ve done. This team is good! Maybe not .750-win-percentage good, but they’re really, really good. The power’s back on, and the Red Sox are lighting it up. Here’s to more grand slams and great moments over the next five months. It’s going to be one hell of a ride.

Header photo by Bob DeChiara — USA TODAY Sports

The 2018 Red Sox have already had their fair share. I tried to do my best to nail down the ones that have been the most vital to their hot start, and the most surprising.

Rick Porcello keeping the ball in the yard

Porcello gave up a league-high 38 home runs in 2017, resulting in a ghastly 1.7 dingers per nine innings. It was a career high, and one of the driving factors behind his 4.65 ERA.

This season has been the opposite. No, like the total opposite. He hasn’t even given up a single home run yet in 25.2 innings pitched.

And he’s had plenty of chances. He’s faced the New York Yankees, a squad which boasts the vaunted Giancarlo Stanton-Aaron Judge-Gary Sanchez power trio. He held them to a pair of hits over seven scoreless innings. Then came the Angels, who lead the American League with 26 dingers.

He and Chris Sale have combined to create the league’s most dominant one-two punch thus far. As I wrote last week, Porcello’s success is the team’s X-factor. Him laying off the home run balls and piling on the strikeouts certainly helps.

Mitch Moreland thriving in limbo

When the Red Sox added J.D. Martinez, everything improved… aside from Mitch Moreland’s clarity towards his role for 2018 and beyond.

Mitch Moreland was more than serviceable as the team’s starting first baseman last season. With Martinez in the fold, a bit of a logjam has been created at the position. Martinez moved Hanley Ramirez mostly back to first, as he has rotated between designated hitter and outfield.

That leaves Moreland, who’s been in proverbial limbo, bouncing from the bench to the starting nine, and from first base to designated hitter.

If you want to put it into basketball terms, he’s the sixth-man. A late game defensive substitution at first. A starter when Martinez is in the outfield and Ramirez is DH’ing. He’s all over the place, and he’s been killing it.

He’s hitting .343 in his new role, with an OPS of 0.986. Against the Angels on Wednesday, he went 3-for-4 with a home run, a walk and three RBI.

If this Boston team has real World Series aspirations, depth will be key. If Mitch Moreland can keep contributing like he has (although hitting .355 for the rest of the season might be a tad lofty) the depth will be alright.

The team’s 5-1 record against New York and Los Angeles

Was anyone exactly surprised when the Red Sox opened the season 8-1 against the rebuilding Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins? Not exactly. Anything less might have been a disappointment.

But to follow that up with a 5-1 record against one team expected to win its division by many pundits (New York) and another team leading the AL West (Los Angeles) all while mixing in a sweep of the Orioles? That’s a real resume booster.

The Sox have done it in a number of ways. With pitching, with hitting. In blowouts and it close wins. This, more than anything, is optimistic to see as we begin to reach the point of the season where its decided whether teams are “for real” or not.

Header photo by Richard Mackson — USA TODAY Sports

It’s easy to talk about how good the Red Sox are right now. They’re really, really good — two games better than the Mets, even! Still, as weird as it might be to say, some spotty performances and injury mishaps could say that the Sox haven’t even hit their actual ceiling just yet. As ridiculous as the Red Sox have been to open this season, what we’ve seen may not even be their best selves.

The bullpen is the most obvious complaint in the early going. The season kicked off with an unfortunate late-inning implosion, after all. Boston’s league-leading pitching numbers look even more impressive when you consider that they currently roster seven arms with ERAs higher than 4.00 when pitching out of the ‘pen — Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Brian Johnson, Marcus Walden, Hector Velazquez, and Carson Smith. Craig Kimbrel is an eldritch bullpen horror and Bobby Poyner looks like a nice middle-inning/lefty specialist find, but the team’s potential answers in high-leverage, late-inning scenarios seem limited. A lot of these guys are underperforming their peripherals, and Smith in particular should improve as he settles in as a healthy contributor for the first time since 2015. Still, this is an area I could really see the Red Sox addressing at the trade deadline, as they could benefit greatly from one or two more reliable arms.

Offensively, the Red Sox have looked simultaneously impressive and inconsistent. Runs were a little hard to come by in the early going, as they put up four or fewer in six of the first seven games (two of which went into extras), but they’ve been flowing fairly regularly ever since. Mookie Betts has been ridiculous, as have Xander Bogaerts and Hanley Ramirez. Last year’s power drought feels like ancient history.

And yet, there’s room for a little more there, too. J.D. Martinez is heating up, but he’s still far from his lofty 2017 level and even a ways off from the slightly more modest seasons before that. He’s striking out a little more than usual, and walking a little less. Andrew Benintendi is walking quite a bit and his contact rate is up, but that contact has been weaker — only 17.8 percent of his batted balls are classified as hard-hit on Fangraphs, way down from his 34.3 percent mark last season. Rafael Devers is enduring some growing pains, slugging almost 100 points worse than his 58-game taste of the majors last season.

It’s a safe bet these trends will fix themselves before long, because all three of these hitters are just more talented than we’ve seen from them so far. Martinez probably isn’t going to slug nearly .700 again, but he’s a more disciplined hitter than we’ve seen to this point. He’s also absolutely crushing the ball — a whopping 64 percent of his batted balls are hit hard, across from only seven percent soft contact. Benintendi and Devers are young, but considering what we know about them as prospects, better days should be on the horizon. Even the “bad” version of Benintendi we’ve seen so far has an OBP over .400 and a walk rate near 19 percent in the two-hole of the lineup right now.

Another dimension at play here is that the Boston Sports Injury Plague of 2018 seems to be nipping at the Red Sox heels. Xander Bogaerts hit the 15-day DL almost immediately, cracking a bone in his foot on an awkward slide into the Tampa Bay Rays’ dugout. While the Red Sox seemed to have lucked out in losing him for only about two weeks, the injury drudged up unfortunate memories of seeing about half the Boston Celtics’ roster end their seasons just a few days apart.

Bogaerts will be back soon, but he’s not the only player missing time, either: Eduardo Rodriguez only just returned, Drew Pomeranz is on the way, and Tyler Thornburg is… somewhere. Dustin Pedroia’s new bionic leg is still a work in progress, but he could be ready to go sometime early in May. Between Rodriguez, Pomeranz, and Pedroia, that’s about seven wins (per fWAR) from last year’s team currently sitting on the DL. No team makes it through the year without injuries, and the Red Sox will certainly see other guys miss games, but getting that group back will help.

There’s also the curious case of Mr. David Price, who has managed to make a sterling 2.25 ERA start to the season feel a little nerve-wracking. Three of Price’s four starts have been great, as he’s only allowed one run combined between them. Then there’s the New York start — on April 11, Price allowed four runs in only one inning before leaving the game due to numbness in his pitching hand. It seems that Price is fine, especially in an impressive follow-up performance Tuesday against Mike Trout and the Angels. Still, it was a weird injury that still hasn’t been fully explained, and further issues with Price could compromise what currently looks to be impressive depth in the starting rotation. Considering the city of Boston seems to be cursed by the Pagan God of Sports Injuries, it’s something that will have to sit in the back of fans’ minds for the time being.

These are all things that, in a vacuum, could lead to an even better Red Sox team in 2018 than we’ve seen so far. It’s certainly possible! Baseball, though, is famously not played in a vacuum. The most likely outcome for the Red Sox is probably some kind of middle ground. Some of the early standout performers will come down to Earth eventually, and some players we expect to perform well could underwhelm. These are normal things for any team in any season.

Teams that get off to this kind of start often have a lot of regression down to the mean ahead of them. The Red Sox are unique in that, despite being off to such a hot start, they seem to have nearly as much room to improve as they do to regress. They probably won’t win 86 percent of their games for the entire season, but with some better breaks in terms of health and performance, they may not slow down as much as one might expect. That could turn out to be the recipe for a very special 2018 Red Sox season.

Header photo by Kirby Lee — USA TODAY Sports

Regardless of his escapades on the field, Ramirez has been incredibly endearing as a player. From his infectious attitude to his trademark swagger, there’s something to like with him, no matter who you are. From shadowboxing during a live interview to staring down the camera, Ramirez is a guy you really want to root for, because when he’s good, everything is great, and someone being as contagiously fun as him is something you don’t see all that often.

The problem is those aforementioned escapades. We look back on his 2016 season fondly because of two major aspects: he was healthy and he was productive. The former is a requirement for the latter, yes, but that’s the same with every player. The problem is that the Red Sox would have him play despite nagging injuries. You probably remember him crumpling his shoulder during his disastrous outfield experiment in early May 2015, and while his first half that season was solid, with a .223 ISO and a .816 OPS, he cratered in the second half, crashing all the way down to a .449 OPS before being benched for the youngsters later on. 2017 was more of the same, although to a lesser extent. Ramirez started this season on a strict diet of starts as the designated hitter, and seldom saw the field due to a shoulder injury that limited him to 17 starts at first. While his first half in 2017 came with a solid .794 OPS, he once again faded in the second half, with his OPS dropping 100 points, his plate discipline eroding, and his batted-ball profile heading south.

It’s hard to dismiss what Ramirez has done so far, which admittedly is a very small sample, but it’s encouraging for the oldest player on the 25-man roster.

Is it fair to place the blame for playing poorly through injury squarely on Ramirez’s shoulders? Probably not, no, because 1) his desire to play wasn’t put in check by a Red Sox team that hasn’t had a good grasp on injury management for years, 2) injuries like 2015’s can be unexpected and freakish, and 3) quite frankly, I’m scared that putting that much weight on those shoulders could injure them again. Nevertheless, it became really easy to write him off coming into 2018, with the signings of Mitch Moreland and J.D. Martinez both poised to take plate appearances from the aging infielder. Ramirez said he was healthy, and had a healthy Spring Training, so maybe we were just underrating him, because he’s had one hell of a start to the season so far.

Maybe he just likes playing in Florida. I don’t know. Either way, it’s hard to dismiss what Ramirez has done so far, which admittedly is a very small sample, but it’s encouraging for the oldest player on the 25-man roster (until Dustin Pedroia comes back). Of all the optimistic stuff we’ve seen, the most intriguing has been his batted-ball profile. Yesterday, Cam Ellis wrote about the Red Sox being more aggressive on pitches in the zone, and Ramirez has certainly picked up on that. His swing percentage on pitches in the zone jumped over 10 percentage points from 2017 to a hearty 80.6 percent, and with that came a nice spike in contact rate in the zone too, jumping up to 93 percent from 86 percent in 2017. He’s swinging more, and making more contact. That’s pretty good, as long as the quality of said contact is improved, and to some extent, it has. Line drives and fly balls are slightly higher than his 2017 marks, and the grounders are disappearing. There’s a lot of pop-ups mixed in those fly balls as well, but with the six-game sample size we’re using, that’s to be expected.

But in the end, we’re still talking about that relatively tiny six-game stretch. There’s got to be something else other than hoping those numbers can play out over the next 156 games, right? Sure is! Let’s take a look at Hanley’s home run from Monday.

That’s not exactly a towering blast, but there’s a lot of strength involved. Trevor Richards hangs a slider that doesn’t catch a ton of the plate, but hovers over the outside corner. Ramirez whips it all the way around to left field for a home run. I understand Richards isn’t a mystifying pitcher, but that’s some subtly impressive power, and he doesn’t (or can’t) do that with a hurt shoulder. Those cranky joints of his are going to be the most important things when gauging how well he can do. Hanley with two healthy shoulders can hit those hanging sliders. Hanley with less than that gets eaten up by them. Imagine what he could do with a third shoulder!

It was difficult to watch that game on Monday and not think Ramirez was going to go on a tear. He hit that homer, had a single to go along with it, and was diving for baseballs on the infield dirt like he was ten years younger — which they don’t have highlight videos of, sadly, because when Hanley’s feeling good, you can tell. He emphatically fist pumps when the Red Sox turn a clutch double play. He goes all-out for hard-hit grounders and plays some empirically good defense. He shows why his goal of a 30/30 season isn’t just a pipe dream, even though everything from age to potential playing time is against him.

This is fun. This is exciting. This is what a healthy Hanley Ramirez is, and I hope he sticks around, because he makes the Red Sox so much better.

Photo by Steve Mitchell — USA TODAY Sports

While it’s probably true that Xander Bogaerts isn’t going to hit .455 for the rest of the season — I’m not ruling it out, though — there are some overall team trends worth taking a look at. The big narrative this offseason was how the additions of Alex Cora and J.D. Martinez were going to be the makeover this team desperately needed. There would be homers aplenty; the gaps would be filled with doubles.

Instead, seven games in and the 2018 Red Sox look a lot like … the 2017 Red Sox. Let’s start with what’s been different, though.

From the day that Alex Cora was introduced as the manager, it was abundantly clear that this Red Sox team would be more aggressive at the plate — especially early in the count. From the eye-test perspective, that much has been true so far. The numbers back it up: the Red Sox are swinging noticeably more than they did last year. After swinging at roughly 43 percent of the pitches they saw last season, the team is on pace to swing at a 47 percent clip this season. If that number holds, it would be the highest swing percentage that the team has posted in over 20 years.

The Red Sox aren’t just being more aggressive, they’re being selectively aggressive. Even with the rise in swing percentage, the Sox aren’t chasing bad pitches. In fact, the percentage of times they’re swinging at pitches out of the zone is pacing one percentage point lower than last year.

Jumping on strikes, however, is a different story. After swinging at 62 percent of balls in the zone last year, the team is coming up to the plate hacking at 71 percent this season. A common criticism of the team last year was that the best hitters were being almost too selective at the plate, so being this aggressive right out of the gate is an encouraging sign.

So why don’t the results look any different? First off, these things take time to even themselves out. If the team continues to be this aggressive, the results will look significantly different in a month. Last year, the Red Sox batted .277/.365/.436 with runners in scoring position. This season, under the same circumstances, they’re currently hitting .186/.286/.349. Last season, the Red Sox finished the year with an exactly league-average BABIP. This year, their BABIP is currently 20 points below league average.

There are definitely reasons to be wary. The two team’s batted-ball profiles look shockingly similar. This year’s squad hasn’t gotten on base at quite the same rate so far. They’re middle of the road in just about any power-measuring stat you look at.

Like I said at the top, it’s hard to read into numbers too seriously while we’re still in the part of the MLB schedule that’s susceptible to snow delays. These things take time, and Cora himself even said that he thinks the team is pressing a little too much right now. The similarities between 2017 and 2018 have been surprisingly evident so far, though, and are worth watching closely as the first few weeks of baseball get underway.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Interesting spring for Devers
42 PA, 3 HR, 3 2B, 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1.000 OPS

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) March 20, 2018

I get that the account is referencing the fact that over 42 spring training at-bats, Devers had yet to walk, and even if that’s not actually that interesting, it got me thinking about what a good 2018 from Rafael Devers looks like.

As a quick refresher: Devers hit .284/.338/.482 in 240 plate appearances over 52 games. He crushed that shot off Chapman at Yankee Stadium in the top of the 9th inning to go along with the other nine less memorable homers. He posted a 111 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and looked surprisingly ready for major-league pitching for a 12-year-old. With that said, it wasn’t perfect. He swung at a lot of pitches, many of which were not strikes. He posted a swing percentage four percentage points higher than league average, yet only swung at strikes at a league-average clip.

It’s tempting to look at Devers’ numbers and think about what he could do with 150-ish healthy games under his belt. His offensive potential seems to a central focus this spring, and rightfully so. I think there’s a case to be made, however, that improving his defense is what’s most important towards maximizing his value to this year’s team.

By my count, Devers is the Red Sox’s fifth-most important hitter as it stands currently. The top tier belongs to Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, followed by Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi in no specific order. Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez cancel each other out, while Jackie Bradley Jr. and Christian Vasquez provide more value on the defensive end, with the occasional hot streak sprinkled in every few weeks. Devers matching last year’s offensive production out of the middle/bottom of the order, as a 21-year-old, would be a dream come true.

Strengthening the left side of the Red Sox’ defense, however, would be more important to this team this year. Xander Bogaerts has a good glove by some metrics and a bad one by others, which is tremendously unhelpful. Bogaerts is undoubtedly a major-league shortstop, but it’s just a matter of how good of one. Andrew Benintendi has some work to do in left field, too. Neither are horrendous at their positions, but I’d be a lot more comfortable if the entire left side of the Red Sox defense wasn’t shaky at best.

Even if Devers spends long stretches of this year in a slump, the Red Sox offense should be able to carry the team into the postseason. If Devers continues playing the type of defense that gets him demoted for Deven Marrero during the playoffs, the team’s going to suffer. I love Brock Holt as much as the next guy, but depending on Holt to hold down a position for large chunks of the season just isn’t realistic anymore. Eduardo Nunez and his bad knees need to be ready to replace Dustin Pedroia and his bad knees. I’ll believe the Blake Swihart experiment when I see it outside of Florida backfields. Third base is firmly Devers’ this year, and his progression on defense is what the Red Sox need the most from him this season.

But if he wants to hit more homers off Chapman, that’s fine too.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

Smart teams will trade any player if the return is right. You wouldn’t say Mookie Betts is available but if the Angels called and offered Mike Trout for Betts, you’d make that trade immediately. Swihart isn’t Trout and Swihart isn’t Betts either, so of course, listen to the offers. Swihart is 26 (has been for almost a week) and has played in just 116 games over the last two seasons due to injuries, with most of those coming in the minor leagues. He’s also out of options, meaning the team can’t send him to the minors without risking losing him for nothing to any team willing to snap him up. It seems, based on McAdam’s reporting, that there are many teams who would do just that. Swihart, then, will have to stay on the major league roster, or the Sox may as well deal him.

Depending on the return, perhaps they should. The roster is certainly set up to handle being Swihartless. Between Brock Holt and Deven Marrero, the entire infield and outfield are accounted for — not that Holt would play center or right field, but the team has three outfielders who could move around if someone was hurt, necessitating Brock Holt: Outfielder. Also, there’s Marco Hernandez, whose shoulder is still hurt but who should be back from the DL at some point. Probably. Maybe. We hope. When he does, he’s capable of playing all over the infield and hitting some as well. So what do the Red Sox need with a player like Swihart who offers more of the same?

Pardon me for getting all metaphysical and stuff on you, but maybe it’s not depth that the Red Sox should be searching for after all. The Red Sox possess perhaps the best and certainly the most versatile outfield in baseball. All three guys, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, and Mookie Betts, can play any outfield position, thank you very much. That means as long as two of them are healthy, all the Red Sox need is a left fielder, and they have that in J.D. Martinez. The numbers tell us Martinez is an atrocious outfielder, but he’s also relatively young and athletic, and has suffered from various injuries through the previous few seasons which could and likely did negatively impact his performance in the outfield, injuries which he’s since recovered from. But even if you can’t blame it on injuries and Martinez is that bad, if he’s that bad in the smallest outfield in baseball and only very occasionally then that’s fine.

In the infield, the Sox have two first basemen in Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez who can play second, short, or third, Xander Bogaerts who plays short but could play third if something catastrophic happened, and Rafael Devers who plays third so he can do catastrophic things to Yankee relief pitchers. Then there’s the aforementioned Marrero, Holt, and, eventually, Hernandez. But wait there’s more because when Dustin Pedroia comes back, that frees up Nunez to play all over the place as well.

Clearly the Red Sox have depth. They have depth for their depth. What I’m saying is their depth is deep. While they don’t lack in quality starters however, and they have all the deepest depth, the quality of that depth is questionable. Hernandez is out and will be out for a while with no return date yet known. Pedroia should be back in May, but maybe not, and as long as he’s out Nunez will be stapled to second base (hopefully not literally), limiting his ability to provide depth. Marrero’s hitting is the inverse of his fielding, and as his fielding is very good, that makes his hitting very bad. Holt was once the poor man’s Ben Zobrist, but that was three-to-five concussions ago. How comfortable would you be with Marrero playing 30 games at third base, or Holt playing 45 at second? Or both simultaneously? Probably not very comfortable, nor should you be because, while they’re probably super nice guys, neither is good enough to be starting.

What I’m saying is their depth is deep. While they don’t lack in quality starters however, and they have all the deepest depth, the quality of that depth is questionable.

The point is there are questions, perhaps too many questions to feel comfortable. Swihart is yet another question mark, but he’s a talented question mark, more talented than the rest of the group. Also, the Red Sox don’t have to hit on all their question marks. They only need one or two and they’ll have a very strong bench.

There’s two more reasons to hold on to Swihart, the most important of which is the utter lack of catching depth in the organization. The Sox don’t have a single catcher anywhere in their top 30 prospects and nothing playable in the upper minors. That means it’s Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon all the way, all year long. If one of those guys gets hurt, then the replacement is likely going to be someone who doesn’t have any business playing in the majors. Swihart offers something more than replacement level behind the plate.

That brings us to the last reason to hold on to Swihart: upside. This is the main argument often cited by Swihart fans. He was a top prospect as recently as April of 2015, when Sox Prospects had him ranked above Yoan Moncada, Manuel Margot, Rafael Devers, and Michael Kopech. He’s potentially an above average hitter, not just for a catcher but for the major leagues. He offers a bit of everything: power, speed, and average. It’s an enticing package.

He’s not 22 anymore though. He might yet attain what the prospect writers hoped for him, though his spring training heroics aren’t as much the biggest sign of that as the fact that his name can be penciled into the lineup for the first time in two seasons.

The great thing for the 2018 Red Sox is he doesn’t have to be better than Moncada and Kopech this season. If he can hit a bit while playing a bit, that’s enough. He’s likely a better hitter than Holt, and definitely a better hitter than Marrero, and certainly a better hitter than Leon. If he stays healthy, shows something at the plate, then he’s probably still an upgrade over Leon long term. That’s a valuable guy, and one the organization shouldn’t be rushing to get rid of, especially for a Triple-A reliever, a C+ prospect, or whatever small return they might receive.

If the Angels call about Mike Trout, though, they probably should do that one.

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports