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	<title>Boston &#187; Jacob DeGrom</title>
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		<title>Rebuilding the Red Sox: Let&#8217;s Trade for an Ace</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/28/rebuilding-the-red-sox-lets-trade-for-an-ace/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/28/rebuilding-the-red-sox-lets-trade-for-an-ace/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2015 13:10:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matthew Kory]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rebuilding the Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Carrasco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corey Kluber]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob DeGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Harvey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sonny Gray]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Strasburg]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2237</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Red Sox might not *need* an ace, but boy, one sure would be nice to have. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>New Red Sox team president Dave Dombrowski will undoubtedly look to upgrade Boston’s starting rotation this off-season. There are of course numerous ways to go about doing this and it’s unclear how much roster turnover Dombrowski will create. In other words, looking at the rotation as presently constructed to attempt to discern how much financial and roster space is available isn’t helpful because any or all of those players could be dealt before the Red Sox reconvene in Fort Myers next February.</p>
<p>It seems likely, though, that the Red Sox will look to acquire a pitcher who can start for them on opening day. That may be through free agency, but given ownership’s reticence to pass out $150 million to Jon Lester last off-season, it’s difficult, even with a new front office in place, to see them reversing course and offering David Price $200 million.</p>
<p>They might do it anyway, but the more likely option is through a trade. There are three primary reasons for that. The first is age. The Red Sox can get a younger starter in trade than they can acquire on the free-agent market. The second is salary. The Red Sox will have to pay Price $30 million a year or some such figure while Sonny Gray, to pull a name from a hat, will make the league minimum. The third is the Red Sox minor league system, which is chock full of talent, so it makes sense to use some of that talent to upgrade the major league roster more quickly and efficiently (i.e. pack more talent into one roster spot) than the system could do on its own.</p>
<p>Who might the team look to acquire? Well, that’s the question, isn’t it. That will depend on who teams make available, but the Red Sox have quite the minor league system. If they’re willing to make most if not all of those players available, many options will be on the table. Here are six of the most intriguing pitchers the Red Sox could acquire through a trade this off-season to head their rotation:</p>
<p><strong>Corey Kluber</strong></p>
<p>Kluber is the reigning AL Cy Young winner and though he won’t repeat this season, he’s still had a fantastic year despite a mostly luck-dependent bad start. Kluber has been worth just over five wins this season by DRA-based WARP, which puts him behind Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray, and ahead of every other pitcher in baseball. He’s fantastic. So why would the Indians look to trade a cost-controlled (he has four years and $35.5 million left on his extension after this season) 29-year-old ace pitcher? Two reasons they might: their farm system is lousy and their major league roster is lousy, too.</p>
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<p>It’s unclear what Cleveland’s plan is, but it seems unlikely they’ll be expected to contend in a packed AL Central in 2016 or even 2017. That doesn’t necessitate dealing Kluber, of course. He’s signed through 2021 if all his options are exercised, but doing so could speed up the rebuilding process considerably. Dealing Kluber would ignite a bidding war that could help build the next great Indians team, a bidding war the Red Sox could potentially win with the strength and depth of their farm system. This isn’t the most likely outcome, but then no one guy is likely. Kluber would be a great addition (obviously) and his salary would allow the Red Sox to supplement the rotation though free agency as well if they so desired.</p>
<p><strong>Carlos Carrasco</strong></p>
<p>This is the other possibility from Cleveland. Rumor has it the Indians already shopped Carrasco at the trade deadline, but he’s now on the DL with a shoulder issue, which makes a deal difficult until he can get back on the mound again. Still, Carrasco is quite good when he’s healthy. After struggling for years after joining the Indians from Philadelphia in the Cliff Lee trade, the light finally came on for Carrasco last season. His strikeouts jumped from below average to well above and he cut his walks allowed in half. Then he proved he’s not a flash in the pan by repeating it this season. Like Kluber, Carrasco is on an inexpensive (relatively) contract that will pay him $14.5 million over the next two seasons with $9 million and $9.5 million option years in 2019 and 2020, respectively. On a per-inning basis Carrasco is similar to Kluber. The difference is Carrasco has thrown 292 innings over the last two seasons and is now on the DL while Kluber has thrown 430 and is still healthy and going.</p>
<p><strong>Jacob deGrom/Matt Harvey</strong></p>
<p>This would make a whole lot more sense if the Mets weren’t about to win the NL East, which apparently they are. Even so, the Mets have as much young pitching as any team does but don&#8217;t have much in the way of the young hitting. A deal for one of these pitchers would likely require someone currently able to play at the major league level, so while you might consider Rafael Devers, etc, etc, etc, for Kluber, a deal for deGrom or Harvey would start with a guy like Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts (I refuse to get into specific packages here or who would have to throw in extra players). deGrom is already 27 and hasn’t been as good as Carrasco or Kluber, while Harvey is a year younger and has managed to almost replicate his incredible six win 2014 season this year with one exception: home runs have been more of an issue. Also, Harvey is coming off of Tommy John surgery.</p>
<p><strong>Sonny Gray</strong></p>
<p>The constant struggle the Oakland A’s face is how to keep the team competitive while constantly rebuilding all on a slim payroll. Thus, good players put in their time building their trade value in Oakland and then are dealt for, Josh Donaldson aside, younger cheaper, players. Although not the strikeout threat that any of the above starters presents, Sonny Gray is younger (he’ll be 26 next year) and is as fantastic. He’s a ground ball guy so he could presumably get by in Fenway just fine without striking out the larger number of hitters that the above pitchers do.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=325467583&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>As to why the A’s would deal Gray even though he’s still silly cheap and is one of the better pitchers in baseball? Well, they dealt Josh Donaldson! But seriously, they may not. I’m guessing it would depend on the nature of the package coming back and the state of the A’s going forward. Oakland would likely want a combination of major league talent and minor league talent in return. Who knows if he’ll move, but given the A’s struggles this season it wouldn’t be a surprise to hear his name batted around at the GM meetings.</p>
<p><strong>Stephen Strasburg</strong></p>
<p>There are others besides the guys listed above. Chris Sale and Tyson Ross for example, but no pitcher in baseball combines the raw stuff with results while retaining upside like Stephen Strasburg. What’s more, if the Nationals continue their crash and burn season, even though Strasburg has turned things around, the Nationals might look to make some deals and shake up the clubhouse.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=411094783&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>What’s more more, Strasburg is about to get expensive. He’s making $7.4 million in his second year of arbitration this season and will be a free agent after next season. He’s a Scott Boras client so an extension, especially this close to free agency, is unlikely. As such, he’d be a one-year addition for Boston which would limit their risk and and limit the cost. It’s still Strasburg so the cost would likely be high, but less than any of the above guys due to the number of seasons of player control remaining.</p>
<p>Should be a fun off-season, huh?</p>
<p><em>Photo by Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Read Sox: Larry Lucchino Out, Ryan Cook In</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/05/read-sox-larry-lucchino-out-ryan-cook-in/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/05/read-sox-larry-lucchino-out-ryan-cook-in/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Aug 2015 12:00:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Canelas]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Read Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Carrasco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob DeGrom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Larry Lucchino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Porcello]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Cook]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sonny Gray]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1941</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The times, they are a-changing. Hopefully that means the pitching staff is, too. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome back to Read Sox. This week we look at Larry Lucchino and the Red Sox’s future without him, the ongoing search for an ace and – wait for it –  Hanley Ramirez’s desire to remain in left field next season.</p>
<p><b>Going Deep</b></p>
<p>With meaningful games out of the question and a quiet trade deadline over, the biggest Red Sox story of the weekend was the news that Larry Lucchino is <a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/08/larry_lucchino_to_depart_in_red_sox_shakeup">stepping down as team president</a> at the end of the season. The news wasn’t much of a surprise given the rumors during spring training, but it’s certainly significant. Lucchino was part of John Henry’s original group that purchased the team in 2002, and played an integral role in the three World Series championships since. He’s had a say in a number of roster moves that were made in that time. He was also the driving force in the many renovations made throughout Fenway Park. However, as Lucchino mentioned in his <a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/08/02/larry-lucchino-i-believe-the-end-of-this-year-is-a-good-time-for-this-change/">statement</a> Sunday, it was time for a change. The Sox are on their way to a last-place finish for the third time in the last four years and reports suggest Lucchino had been less involved in the organization. Lucchino will be succeeded by Sam Kennedy, who, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes, will be <a href="http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2015/08/03/why-picking-players-wont-be-new-red-sox-presi">more invested in the business side of the organization and less involved in baseball operations</a>.The <i>Boston Herald</i>’s Michael Silverman writes that this move is j<a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/08/silverman_larry_lucchino_move_just_first_step_for_red_sox">ust the beginning of a slew of changes</a> that could take place between now and Opening Day. Two changes Silverman doesn’t expect to be made are at manager and general manager, despite the notable failures of both John Farrell and Ben Cherington over the last two seasons.</p>
<p>The biggest shakeup that should take place for the Red Sox this offseason is in the starting rotation. Their pitching struggles are no secret to anyone who follows baseball. Boston owns the fourth-worst team ERA in baseball at 4.52 and only a marginally better team DRA at 4.12. The Sox should feel lucky it’s not worse given the disasters that Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly and Justin Masterson have represented this season. The most obvious issue is the Red Sox’s lack of a true ace (or respectable No. 1 starter for that matter). With that in mind, Brian MacPherson of the <i>Providence Journal </i><a href="http://www.providencejournal.com/article/20150802/SPORTS/150809828/14009">tried to determine where the Sox can find that coveted ace</a>. Possible trade targets MacPherson suggested were Carlos Carrasco, Jacob DeGrom and Sonny Gray. All three starters are still young and in many ways up-and-coming, but all three are also putting up ace-quality numbers, ranking in the top 15 in FIP. DeGrom and Gray are both in the top 10 in baseball in DRA. Acquiring any of those three seems like a longshot, but nonetheless any of those moves would requiring parting ways with top-tier prospects. The Sox could also pursue free agents to-be such as Johnny Cueto, David Price, Jeff Samardzija and Jordan Zimmermann. But if the Jon Lester negotiations taught us anything it’s that we shouldn’t expect them to spend top-dollar and award long-term deals to proven No. 1’s.</p>
<p><b>Quick Hits</b></p>
<p>Watching a last-place team isn’t fun. Yet for some reason we do it anyways. Owning the worst record in the American League does have its benefits, however. As Alex Speier of <i>The Boston Globe </i>points out, that distinction would <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/08/03/having-worst-record-could-benefit-red-sox/146c8XImcXw8smTck07sFI/story.html">give the Sox first dibs at claiming players off waivers</a>. That could put Boston in position to make a push for that quality starter it desperately needs.</p>
<p>If you were hoping Hanley Ramirez would never play left field again after this season, you may be disappointed once you read this. Despite ranking statistically as the worst left fielder in baseball, Ramirez told MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith that he <a href="http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/08/boston_red_soxs_hanley_ramirez_2.html">wants to play there again next season</a>, especially over any spot in the infield. Ramirez explained that he’s been healthier this season as a left fielder than he had been over the past few years as a shortstop, giving him more reason to take his lumps in left for another year.</p>
<p>The trade deadline was far from eventful for the Red Sox. They did, however, acquire reliever Ryan Cook from Oakland. Sox fans may not care much for the deal, but Cook told the Boston media he’s <a href="http://nesn.com/2015/08/ryan-cook-excited-to-join-red-sox-ill-fit-in-wherever-they-need-me/">excited to join the team</a>. Whether or not Cook earns a spot in the Sox’s 2016 bullpen could hinge on how he performs down the stretch. The righty’s 10.38 ERA in four major league appearances this season is discouraging, but he does have a history of success, posting a 2.89 FIP in 73.1 innings in 2012 and a 2.74 FIP over 67.1 frames in 2013.</p>
<p>Now for some injury news. Rick Porcello is <a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/08/02/red-sox-notes-rick-porcello-heads-to-disabled-list-mookie-betts-making-progress/">heading to the disabled list</a> for the first time in his career with what is being called a right triceps strain. In a perfect world, the Sox won’t see him pitch for the rest of the season. Joining Porcello on the DL is Brian Johnson, who is <a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/08/04/red-sox-pitching-prospect-brian-johnson-placed-on-disabled-list-with-elbow-tightness/">dealing with elbow tightness</a>. Mookie Betts, on the other hand, is making progress. Betts, who was diagnosed with a concussion after toppling over the right-field wall and into the Red Sox bullpen last week, is <a href="http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/betts-concussion-improving-should-join-sox-detroit">expected to join the team in Detroit this weekend</a>.</p>
<p><b>Three Good Game Stories</b></p>
<p>Wade Miley was <a href="http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/miley-strong-sox-120-pitch-effort">strong on Sunday</a>, as CSNNE.com’s Jimmy Toscano writes, even if it wasn’t enough to earn a win over the Rays.</p>
<p>Travis Shaw hit his first two major league home runs and scored five times in the Sox’s win on Saturday. <a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/08/01/like-father-like-son-travis-shaw-hits-first-major-league-home-run-scores-5-runs-in-red-sox-win/">WEEI.com’s Ryan Hannable explains</a> how Shaw’s modest demeanor after the game comes from having seen his father, Jeff, play in the majors as well.</p>
<p>Many were surprised to see Mike Napoli still in Boston after Friday’s trade deadline passed. But, as the <i>Boston Herald</i>’s Jason Mastrodonato writes, Napoli <a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/07/mike_napoli_leads_red_sox_to_win_after_deadline_passes">led the Sox to a comeback win</a> over the Rays that night.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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