Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2011 draft has, by Baseball Reference WAR, out-produced every player taken in the first round of that same draft. That would be Mookie Betts.

Partly that’s a function of the fact the Red Sox have been a better team than the Orioles over that time. Thus when Baltimore has picked it has more often been at the top of the draft where more is expected to come of the selection, whereas the Red Sox have often picked later where star power is much harder to come by.

But even then, the Red Sox have still done better than Baltimore. There are probably other teams that have done better than the Red Sox over the past three decades (going much deeper into draft history is pointless as the draft has changed so much since) but though they exist they likely aren’t many. Take for example, Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2011 draft has, by Baseball Reference WAR, out-produced every player taken in the first round of that same draft. That would be Mookie Betts, and that would be amazing.

Of course, that’s not the only time the Red Sox have had a non-first round pick and (to date) got more production out of it than any of the first rounders used that in that same draft. They did it in 2004 when they used the 65th overall pick to take Dustin Pedroia. If you want to hold this exercise to just the first round though, well, even then the Red Sox have done well. The following draft, 2005, the Red Sox had the 23rd pick as compensation for Orlando Cabrera signing with the Angels. They used it on outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, the sixth most valuable player (B-R WAR) taken in that draft.

So the Red Sox have scored when they should’ve scored and scored when they probably shouldn’t have scored. But they haven’t always nailed it. In 2010, they used the 20th overall pick on Kolbrin Vitek with Christian Yelich taken three picks later. Vitek never made it above Double-A, retiring four years after being picked. Even so though, the 20th pick isn’t a surefire star waiting to happen. That’s more like a guy you’d hope could turn into a solid contributor. Vitek never was that (why he’s mentioned in this paragraph!) but missing out on the 20th overall pick isn’t something to quit over. Oddly enough, current Red Sox star pitcher Chris Sale was selected seven picks earlier, but I digress.

The real problem, as the Orioles can attest to, is getting a top-ten pick and blowing it on nothing. The Red Sox haven’t officially done that yet, but it’s pretty close. Trey Ball has a 5.53 ERA in Double-A and is looking less like a future rotation cornerstone and more like a guy who gets dropped in the end of an insubstantial trade, or even converted to the outfield because why not? Worse, Boston took Ball with a bunch of still promising guys available (Austin Meadows, JP Crawford, Hunter Dozier, Christian Arroyo, Aaron Judge), though that’s how every draft is. There’s always someone promising available. The trick is knowing who it is.

You have to go pretty far back to find so high a pick go so badly for the Red Sox. In 1995 the Red Sox took pitcher Andy Yount two picks before Roy Halladay went to the Blue Jays, but that was with the 15th overall pick, not the seventh. In 1994 Boston took Nomar Garciaparra with the 12th pick, and in ’93 they took Trot Nixon with the seventh pick. Hard to complain about either, even if Nixon didn’t ever quite live up to the star power that was projected upon him.

Since Theo Epstein took over the GM’s seat in early 2003 the Red Sox have been incredibly good at getting value out of the draft. It’s hard to win three World Series in fifteen years without getting something substantial from the draft. The Red Sox built the foundation of their first World Series winning team through trades and free agency, but their second, the 2007 team came far more from the draft. While there were ’04 crossovers in Jason Varitek and David Ortiz, and free agents like J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo, the ’07 team was also Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Jonathan Papelbon. The 2013 team was similar in its composition. Lots of free agents and players acquired in trades, but with a solid core of home grown players like Lester, Pedroia, Felix Doubront, Clay Buchholz, Will Middlebrooks, and Ellsbury, with assists from Xander Bogaerts and even Jackie Bradley.

Looking at that 2013 squad, you can still see the roots stretching back to Theo Epstein and Boston’s first world championship in almost a century, but so can you see the future, or as we here in 2017 say, the present. The Red Sox don’t owe it all to the draft. They’re not the Rays or the Astros, but the draft has provided the Red Sox with a lot of value and a sizable amount of star power over the past few decades. So when going to look for Boston’s biggest draft busts or some such thing, you’ll have to be searching for a long time. Or, put more succinctly, the Red Sox aren’t the Orioles. Because when it comes to the draft, the Red Sox are hobgood at it.

Photo by Eric Hartline – USA TODAY Sports

Top Play (WPA)

Jacoby Ellsbury doubled to left in the 8th inning scoring both Gary Sanchez and Aaron Hicks (.347). He also advanced Brett Gardner to third if you really care about everything that happened on that one specific play. Technically speaking, it was probably an error on Andrew Benintendi, who lost the ball in the lights, but it wasn’t scored like that and Benintendi is just out there doing his best so we’re not going to penalize him. Ellsbury is hitting .214/.389/.286 with a .675 OPS so yes of course naturally he would have such a hit in that spot. Revenge is a dish best served 3 years later after you sign with a different team and become a replacement level player.

Bottom Play (WPA)

Hanley Ramirez grounded into a double play in the third inning (-.128). Hanley actually had a nice night at the plate, going 2-3 with a double and 2 RBI, but he’s the owner of the night’s bottom play as well as the owner of what will presumably be very sore body parts after getting just crushed by Gary Sanchez on a play at first base.

The Offense frustrates….again…. and again. 

They scored 2 runs. They were 1-9 with RISP. They left nine men on base. They’re hitting .229/.307/.366 with a .673 OPS over the last two weeks. There’s still lots of baseball to be played, but if the team is on the outside looking in come October, it won’t be in small part to the fact that over a stretch when their pitching gave them a lot of chances to win, they couldn’t hit.

Trend to watch

It feels like this team loses a lot of close games. They’re 13-14 in one run games this season, and we’ve arrived at the part of the year where any one or two run loss feels like the “breaking point.” Here’s this, from Pete, for context:

#RedSox have lost 14 games since the break. The average margin has been 2.07 runs. Little stuff now very big trouble.

— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) August 12, 2016

You’ve heard all about their tough schedule, but they’ll be playing the Rays twice, the Diamondbacks, the Athletics, the Padres, and the Royals. If you have to play basically every day for the next six weeks, it helps that there are going to be a lot of winnable games. What’s that you say? A home series against a Yankees team that had already throw in the towel also counts as winnable games and they still found a way to lose 2 out of 3? Look, you’re not wrong.

What’s next

The Arizona Diamondbacks are next. They are 48-66. If the Red Sox were interested in tapping into their potential and going on a winning streak that united the team and all of New England on their way to a playoff birth, this would be a wonderful place to start. David Price will be on the mound for the Sox, Patrick Corbin will start for Arizona. First pitch is at 7:05.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA TODAY

So much so, in fact, that there has been some speculation the team could look to move him. It’s not been speculated by anyone like Ken Rosenthal saying “the Yankees are looking to move Ellsbury.” That has NOT happened. But there have been whispers. And with Ellsbury in New York for another five seasons at $111 million in total, you can probably see why. So here’s what I think: the Red Sox should trade for him!

Okay, it’s never going to happen. I’m going to acknowledge that off the bat (<- baseball pun!). The Red Sox did deal Stephen Drew to New York a season ago, but prior to that they hadn’t made a trade with the Yankees in decades. Ignore the standings and understand that these two organizations are the deepest of rivals. They’re not in the habit of making each other better. Of course, the idea isn’t to trade for Ellsbury to help the Yankees, it’s to trade for Ellsbury because his value is at a low point, making him cheap to acquire and worthy of doing so because he’s still quite good. So let’s make that case first.

The idea is to trade for Ellsbury because his value is at a low point, making him cheap to acquire and worthy of doing so because he’s still quite good.

For years before Ellsbury was a free agent it was seemingly a foregone conclusion that he would sign elsewhere. Scott Boras was his agent and he had steadfastly refused to sign the kind of extension that teammates like Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester had to keep them in Boston past six or seven seasons. Like Jonathan Papelbon, Ellsbury wanted to see what was out there for him on the market. But when he became a free agent the Red Sox didn’t just let him walk like they did with Papelbon: the Red Sox reportedly offered Ellsbury around $120 million to stay in Boston! There’s a huge difference between $153 million and $120 million so in that sense it wasn’t a competitive offer, but $120 million isn’t chump change by any means. In fact, had Ellsbury signed that deal to stay in Boston, he would now be the Red Sox’s highest paid player. The point is the Red Sox valued him very highly, just not as highly as the Yankees.

Last season, his first in New York, Ellsbury hit .271/.328/.419. That looks rather pedestrian, but with his defense and base running, combined with the league’s overall level of anemic offense, the whole package came out to four wins via FanGraphs WAR. Baseball Reference put it a tad lower, at 3.3, while our WARP split the difference at 3.6. No matter which you prefer, they all agree Ellsbury was a very valuable player in 2014, as he had been throughout his career.

So what about this season? Well, it’s not a complicated story, really. Pretty simply, Ellsbury hurt his knee and spent almost two months on the DL. Then he came back quite possibly a bit too soon and was never right (his swing mechanics were a bit messed up, as Owen Watson noted at JABO). Before his injury, so from April 1 through May 19, he hit .324/.412/.372. That’s almost an .800 OPS from an above average defensive center fielder. That’s very good! After the injury, though, things went in the tank. From July 8 when he came back from the DL to October 4 (the end of the season), Ellsbury hit .224/.269/.332. Yuck.

For all the crap Ellsbury always got for being soft, he actually played through a whole lot of bumps and bruises and outright pain. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier put it this way in a recent column.

He will forever be labeled as soft, even though the only significant stretches he missed with the Red Sox resulted from taking a human wrecking ball to the ribs and another to the shoulder. It’s easily forgotten that he raced back from a still-healing broken foot to spearhead the Red Sox lineup through its 2013 championship run. It’s easily forgotten that he played through a lot of strains and sprains and twisted ankles without complaint or visible on-field impact.

It’s tough to give him a total pass for lousy production, but then it’s tough to play major league baseball injured. It’s not hard to see that the skills which make Ellsbury valuable, speed, ability to drive the ball, defense, and some pop, are all still there. Ellsbury, like many players who play high-stress positions, does get hurt from time to time, but he has actually played a lot of games. In years when he didn’t have his season ended by a charging Adrian Beltre or something similar, he’s averaged 142 games played per season (that’s excluding the two seasons ended prematurely by blunt force injuries). That’s more than Dustin Pedroia has average over his nine full seasons in Boston.

What’s more, Ellsbury isn’t old. His age-32 season will be next year. Imagine if the Yankees would take back a bad contract from Boston, say Allen Craig, and kick in some money on Ellsbury’s deal. Jacoby Ellsbury for five seasons and (I’m making up numbers now) $80 million. That has the potential to be a damn bargain.

So the next hurdle is figuring out where he fits in with the Red Sox, who happen to have quite the young outfield. As well as the Red Sox played down the stretch, and as well as the outfield of Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, and Rusney Castillo fielded the ball, there is some room to wonder what the trio would put up in a full season. Castillo especially struggled with the bat. In 80 games this season he hit .253/.288/.359. That’s atrocious. Bradley was overall a spectacular player with the bat and glove this season, but if you look at his games, after cooling off, he was essentially the same awful Jackie Bradley of old at the plate. Warning: cherrypicking ahead! From September 8 through the end of the season Bradley hit .138/.247/.263 in 94 plate appearances over 25 games. I’d love nothing more than to go into next season with Bradley and Castillo and watch them both exceed expectations at the dish. There’s certainly reason to think that they can do it, but we have to acknowledge there is reason to think they can’t as well.

Acquiring Ellsbury would open up the team to move Bradley or Castillo (not Betts, never Betts) in the search for pitching, be it of the starting or bullpen variety.

The Red Sox are expecting to win next season, but there are clear questions as to whether the outfield as currently constructed can produce enough to help them do so. Jacoby Ellsbury can hit and he can play the field, and it’s possible the team could get him from one of their main rivals for less than they were willing to pay him on the market just two seasons ago. So how about weakening the enemy while strengthening yourself in the process? Let’s bring back Jacoby Ellsbury!

You may now fillet me in the comments. Thank you.

Photo by Robert Deutsch/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Jacoby Ellsbury’s go-ahead homer, with a .242 WPA, rightfully earns its spot here. Rodriguez was cruising up until that point, with his only real blemish being an A-Rod RBI double, but he hung a slider to Ellsbury, who got all of it and put it into the second deck in right field. Giving up the go-ahead run is never a good thing, but it was made worse by the fact that the Yankees had Dellin Betances warming and Andrew Miller behind him. With a 79% win expectancy and New York’s two best relievers coming up, it looked all but certain that the Sox would lose again after this homer. Surprising, I know.

Bottom Play (WPA): Even with Andrew Miller on the mound, the Red Sox tried their best to come back. With the tying run on 2nd and the go-ahead run on 1st, Rusney Castillo struck out to end the game, which amounted to a -.133 WPA. Lefties Travis Shaw and Jackie Bradley had a pair of great at-bats against Miller, but then the Yankees closer locked it down against Castillo. He threw two fastballs down and in on Castillo, then finished him off with a slider in the dirt. For a guy who looked lost against back-to-back left-handed hitters, Miller was completely in control with Castillo.

Key Moment: In what was by far the best chance the Sox had at scoring, CC Sabathia struck out David Ortiz to end the top of the 5th. Sabathia had gone away from him for the first three pitches of the at-bat, but came back inside on a 94 mph sinker that seemed to catch Ortiz off guard. Sabathia was pretty pumped up. Castillo’s RBI single had finally tied it, and with Ortiz up, you sensed there was a real chance to take the lead.

“How dare you have any hope,” said the 2015 Red Sox. And so it was.

Trend to Watch: Eduardo Rodriguez continues to impress. After a pretty mediocre start against Tampa Bay, he bounced back here against an offense that tears apart southpaws. The Yankees came into this game with an offense against left-handed pitching that ranked second in OPS (.783) and wRC+ (116), and the rookie held them to six hits and two runs while walking two. He worked hard to get through tough situations – with the bases loaded and one out in the bottom of the 5th, Rodriguez got both Mark Teixeira and Chris Young to pop out to get out of the jam. Not only that, Rodriguez ramped it up as the game went on, as he still threw 94 mph heaters in the 7th inning. The home run aside, he got all the outs in the 7th inning on swinging strikes. Not too bad for a 22-year-old.

Coming Next: The Red Sox move on to the Motor City to take on a retooling Tigers team. Detroit will send out Van Man Daniel Norris, while the Sox will have Cy Young frontrunner Joe Kelly pitching. It’s a good thing Miguel Cabrera is still on the DL, or else you would’ve had to cover children’s eyes when Kelly pitched to him.

 Photo by Anthony Gruppuso/USA Today Sports Images

The subject of today’s article is that act: the theft of home plate. And over the past couple of years, I’ve been especially fascinated by the act. As such, I wanted to take the time to review the Sox’s home-stealing efficacy over the last several seasons, going back to the start of 2007.

Even with all the data at our disposal today, getting info on steals of home can be a long process, especially without a robust database (or Rob McQuown) at the ready. Baseball-Reference is a must, but then you have to look at data manually — whether it’s game logs or video — to find out the circumstances behind each event. Why? Because oftentimes, what shows up in the box score as a steal of home (successful or no), isn’t a designed straigh -steal of home. Much more commonly, it’s a failed squeeze bunt or a double steal of home and second base.

Just like how there is more than one way to skin a cat*, there is more than one way to be credited with an attempted steal of home plate. Today, I’d like to talk about the many ways you can steal home — or get caught stealing home — and how over the last seven or eight years, the Red Sox have done a good job of showcasing many of them.

Caught Stealing Home: Failed Double Steal

Mike Napoli is the King of Stealing Home among current Red Sox players. One of the reasons is because he’s credited with two attempted steals of home since he’s been with the Sox. The first, we’ll talk about later — but the second we’ll talk about now. This actually happened this year, allll the way back in May. On May 15th, Naps was thrown out at home as part of a double steal attempt against the Mariners. It ended the inning, and any attempt at a rally, and the Sox ended up losing the game by one run.

Whoops.

Mookie Betts was also caught in a similar situation back in 2014, as a pitch out-caught him in the attempt for a double steal — at least as far as I can tell through the box scores. It looks like the pitchout might have been designed to get the runner on first, but hey, why not bust the quick guy on third in the process?

Caught Stealing Home: Failed Suicide Squeeze

There are many ways to fail at stealing home, but most are a version of a failed suicide squeeze. Oftentimes, the hitter may miss a sign, or simply miss putting the bat on the ball. For example, in July 2011, Josh Reddick was hung out to dry on a “steal of home” when Marco Scutaro missed the sign for a suicide squeeze. The same thing happened in 2008, when Coco Crisp was hung out to dry by Alex Cora.

More often than not, if you see a player with a CS: home, this is my guess on how they got there.

Caught Stealing Home: Straight Steal

Sometimes, you think you’re ready to make a straight steal of home. The straight steal of home attempt is a rarity, and the players who do it need to be both lightning fast AND get a great jump on the pitcher. A Sox player hasn’t tried this and failed recently, but how about we all watch a video of someone who has?

This is stupid. Torii Hunter is more athletic than I’ll ever be, but man, oh man, this is a great way to murder a rally. Hunter is 39 years old! He’s fast, sure, but he’s not the same player he was a dozen years ago. Yikes.

Successful Steal of Home: Double Steal (Level 1)

This is why Mike Napoli is the current King of Stealing Home (Boston). Not because Mike’s the only guy credited with two attempts … but because one of those two attempts was successful. During this game on June 22 of last year, Jonathan Herrera was going, the Athletics pitcher moved to pick him off, and Napoli still took advantage and ran it in for a score. Check it out.

This is, for sure, the most common way a steal of home takes place these days. All five successful steals of home this season have come as part of a double steal, per my research. It’s still extremely exciting when it happens, but it’s not what I consider a “true” steal of home where the runner combines both the mental aspect of catching a team napping with the adrenaline rush of speed. Guys like Napoli, Russell Martin of the Jays … pretty much anyone with a pulse and two good knees can pull these off.

Four of the five successful steals of home by the Sox since 2007 were of this variety. Most recently, it was Napoli, of course. The Sox had two successful steals of home on a double-steal in 2013: both Shane Victorino and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (!) pulled it off. Ryan Kalish also stole home in Game 162 against the Yankees back in 2010, en route to that memorable victory.

Oh! And Napoli actually homered and stole a base in the same game! He’s not the first Red Sox player in history to have done that, but he is the first since Rico Petrocelli in 1967.

Successful Steal of Home: Distraction Play (Level 2)

This is where we start to get to the “totally awesome steal of home” level. In these cases — which are not all alike — the runner doesn’t usually just break for home on the pitch. In these cases, something else happens, which the runner uses as an impetus to break for the plate.

Since this hasn’t really happened for the Sox over the last few years, I’ll use two incredible examples from other teams.

The first is David Peralta of the Arizona Diamondbacks, from last year.

As you can see, David uses an errant return throw from the catcher to spark a run. This is the kind of combo of athleticism and instinct or intelligence that makes for a truly great play.

Here’s another version of that style of a steal of home … one that’s a bit more famous, perhaps. Back in 2012, Bryce Harper made a mark with the first steal of his big league career. This one came off of Cole Hamels and a simple pickoff throw on May 6, 2012.

Baller move, Bryce.

Successful Steal of Home: Classic (Level 3)

This is the maximum excellence in stealing home, the kind of steal of home we imagine Jackie Robinson performing. These are even more of an extreme rarity these days, and I’ve only found scattered instances of players performing the feat.

Of course, of the five Red Sox steals of home since 2007, one was of this epic variety. I present to you, our old friend: Jacoby Ellsbury. April 26, 2009.

That’s your classic, excellent, top-of-the-line steal of home. The height of base-stealing achievement, if you ask me. They’re rare and amazing, and like most rare and amazing things, there’s a Red Sox version of it out there.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

If we’re looking for admiration, we have to step back one season prior to 2013, when a championship appeared as if Ben Cherington just happened to find one in the bottom of his back pocket while taking a post-lunch stroll through the Common. Not unlike the 2004 squad, the 2013 team dissolved almost as quickly as it emerged. Some have retired, some have remained, but many have scattered, ashes from an urn, floating on the winds to new destinations where, they hope, the cycle will be repeated.

For us now, we have the 2015 team and the hope and promise they bring, but as we focus on our new friends, perhaps it is worth a look back on old friends to see how they’re making out. What follows is a series of questions intended to test your knowledge of the 2013 team, the World Series, and what those players who brought you the third World Series win in the last 10 seasons at the time have done since.

1. Two years later, what percentage of the 2013 team remains on Boston’s roster?
A) 33%
B) 50 %
C) 67%
D) 75%
E) 82 %

2. Which member of the 2013 team has been the most valuable player by WARP since winning the World Series (so including 2014 and 2015)?
A) Jacoby Ellsbury
B) Dustin Pedroia
C) Jon Lester
D) John Lackey
E) Jarrod Saltalamacchia

3. Which pitcher other than Jon Lester and John Lackey won a 2013 World Series game?
A) Jake Peavy
B) Felix Doubront
C) Brandon Workman
D) Junichi Tazawa
E) Ryan Dempster

4. Which member of the 2013 team has played for the most teams since hoisting the World Series trophy?
A) Felix Doubront
B) Stephen Drew
C) Andrew Bailey
D) Franklin Morales
E) Alfredo Aceves

5. Which former Red Sox’s new team is doing the best in the standings so far in 2015?
A) Andrew Miller
B) Jonny Gomes
C) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
D) David Ross
E) Jose Iglesias

6. After David Ortiz’s .688 batting average, the next highest for a Red Sox player during the World Series was .250. Who did that?
A) Dustin Pedroia
B) Xander Bogaerts
C) Daniel Nava
D) Jonny Gomes
E) Jacoby Ellsbury

7. Which member of the 2013 Red Sox left the team in 2014 only to return to the organization this season?

8. Which member of the 2013 Red Sox has been the least valuable by WARP this season?
A) Jon Lester
B) Jonny Gomes
C) Andrew Miller
D) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
E) Stephen Drew

9. Of the now moved on 2013 Red Sox, who put up the best OPS+ in 2013?
A) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
B) Stephen Drew
C) Jonny Gomes
D) Will Middlebrooks
E) Jose Iglesias

10. Of the now moved on 2013 Red Sox, who has the most home runs this season?
A) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
B) Stephen Drew
C) Jonny Gomes
D) David Ross
E) Jose Iglesias

Click here for the answers!

Photo by Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.smugmug.com