Johnson’s journey has been tumultuous. He has dealt with physical injuries to his elbow, shoulder, leg, and even his head/brain, after getting hit in the head by a batted ball on more than one occasion. He also battled through a period of depression and anxiety in 2016, and both conditions require persistent attention to manage their impact. As if all of that wasn’t enough, Johnson was held at gunpoint in a car-jacking following the 2015 season. He has been through a lot, but is still fighting for a big league opportunity. One wonders how much time he has left to prove himself.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Similar to how Carson Smith’s big positive in 2017 was getting back out on a major league mound, Johnson’s huge step forward was getting back to competing at a high-level after having dealt with all the physical injuries and mental health concerns I mentioned above. He made 23 starts, totaling 120 innings last year: one at Low-A, 17 at Triple-A, and five with the big league club. That is pretty solid output from a guy whose career was not certain to continue a year ago.

It’s important to note that he didn’t just take the ball 23 times and muddle his way through starts. He often pitched well: in his 17 starts for Pawtucket, he posted a 3.18 RA9. His 4.19 FIP suggests he had some help in posting that nice runs-allowed number, but that is to be expected from a pitcher of Johnson’s ilk. He does not overpower batters. His fastball sits in the high 80s, and at the Triple-A/Major League levels, he has a 19.3 strikeout rate, which places him in the bottom third of the leaderboards. As such, he relies on his defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. This was evident when he got to pitch in front of Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. on May 27th at Fenway Park.

Mookie keeping Nelson Cruz in the yard:

Jackie robbing Cruz of a hit:

Johnson’s complete game shutout in May was just the sixth such outing at Fenway Park in the last five years. Interestingly, while I pointed out Johnson’s reliance on his defenders, he recorded eight strikeouts that day; a total he has reached or exceeded only nine other times in his 103 career starts at any professional level. It was a special day, and certainly a high point in Johnson’s career to date.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Unfortunately, other than that outing against the Mariners, Johnson was not very good for the Red Sox in 2017. Take it out of the equation and you find his other starts amounted to a 6.50 RA9 (6.66 FIP). That is a long way from the strong showings he had at Triple-A. Pitching in the majors is a big jump from the minors and a pitcher who relies on strict control and allowing contact can run into problems quickly against big league hitters.

Johnson’s other issue in 2017 was more injuries and bad luck. The injury problem was to his shoulder, which is never a good thing for a pitcher. He was forced to leave his start against the Phillies after just 2.2 innings due to shoulder discomfort, and things were already not going well: four hits, one walk, and three runs, including a home run. The discomfort was eventually diagnosed as a shoulder impingement and resulted in another trip to the disabled list for Johnson.

After working his way back with a month of solid performances for the PawSox, he was hit on the leg by a batted ball in his August 16th start and forced to leave after just one perfect inning. He made his next start (and two more, pitching well in two of the three), so ultimately, the injury was not serious. Just another example of the sort of bad luck that seems to follow Johnson around.

WHAT TO EXPECT

On another team, Johnson might be slotted into the 4th/5th spot in the rotation, but on the Red Sox, there is no room for him. Even if a spot opens up due to injury, it is not certain that Johnson will be the guy who is called on. He will be competing with Roenis Elias, Hector Velazquez, Jalen Beeks, and maybe even Steven Wright for the chance. As such, Johnson will head into 2018 in much the same way he has started the last few seasons: just on the outside of the big league rotation. Barring a trade this offseason, Johnson will again spend the majority of the season pitching for Pawtucket, working to demonstrate that his crafty stuff can consistently get major league hitters out.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

Michael Kopech

With Moncada getting sent home early, Kopech became the top Red Sox player in the league, and he took the baseball world by storm. He flashed his famous high-velocity fastball, consistently touching the high-90s and sometimes hitting triple digits. He made six starts in Arizona, totaling 22 innings and pitching to an impressive 2.01 ERA. Unsurprisingly, he racked up the strikeouts, setting down 10.5 batters per nine innings thanks to his aforementioned fastball along with an impressive slider. The command continued to be something of an issue, though not one that handcuffed him much in this league. He allowed two home runs in those six starts while walking 3.2 batters per nine innings.

Stock: It’s impossible to say Kopech’s stock has done anything but rise after his performance in Arizona. He was already one of the more exciting pitching prospects in all of baseball, and the fact that he pitched so well and pitched to his strengths in front of a plethora of scouts from across the league is a positive. There is still some question as to whether he’ll be able to harness his command enough to make it as a top-line starter, but it seems more are starting to come around to that idea. His performance in the All-Star Game (two perfect innings with three strikeouts) certainly helped matters. He’s not the best pitching prospect in baseball, but he continued to move up the ranks this fall.

Mauricio Dubon

If you know me at all, you know how much I like Dubon as a prospect. His combination of bat-to-ball ability, speed and defense around the infield gives him a chance to be a good regular in this league and should lead him to at least a long career as a utility man. The former 26th-round pick took a huge step forward in 2016, impressing in both Salem and Portland. While he was hoping to take another step in Arizona, it didn’t go his way. In 18 games, he hit just .211/.273/.408 with three home runs and three stolen bases in five attempts. It was a disappointing offensive performance after such a great year, and one that could indicate a bit of fatigue after a long season. The power is intriguing, and something that he showed off in Portland as well, but Arizona lends itself to inflated power numbers.

Stock: While the overall performance was disappointing, I don’t think it’s fair to say his stock has dropped. Dubon struggled over a small sample, but as I said fatigue could also be an issue. Additionally, he started getting some time in the outfield and didn’t look completely overmatched by the change. Versatility is always going to be the name of the game for Dubon, and getting his outfield career started was an important step for him. That’s true even if it was accompanied by a lackluster offensive performance.

Trey Ball

Ugh. The Red Sox have done a lot of good things in the draft over the years, but their first top-10 pick in what seemed like forever could not have gone worse. Ball was always going to be a project, but he continued to slip over the course of 2016. The hope was that a trip to Arizona would kickstart his career. That…well that didn’t happen. He threw 13 innings across 11 relief appearances, and pitched to a 6.08 ERA in that time. He also walked 13 batters (one per inning, for those who struggle in math) while striking out just nine.

Stock: Down. The same direction it’s been going since Ball has entered the organization. There was certainly criticism of this pick at the time it was made, but we’re seeing the darkest timeline. With the lefty projected to hit Portland in 2017, it’s hard to see things getting any better. Ball was a two-way player when he was drafted, and perhaps the Red Sox are approaching the time to try him in the field.

Jamie Callahan

A former second-round pick, Callahan made his way through the first half of his trip in the minors as a starter before converting to the bullpen in the middle of the 2015 season. He spent the entire 2016 campaign in that role, and showed off decent strikeout stuff with iffy command. In Arizona, however, he looked much better. It was only 12 innings of work, but he allowed just one run on 12 strikeouts and three walks.

Stock: Up. Callahan’s stock was never all that high to begin with, and this strong performance isn’t one to get carried away with. On the other hand, he’s still relatively new to his relief role and did this against a lot of very good competition. He wouldn’t be anything more than the third or fourth piece in a good trade, but he’ll look to take another step towards a real major-league career in a Double-A bullpen next season.

Jalen Beeks

Beeks is a lefty who split the season evenly between High-A and Double-A, impressing in the former and disappointing in the latter. He threw out of the bullpen in Arizona, managing 12 innings of work in ten appearances. Although he struck out 13 batters in those 12 innings, he also gave up plenty of hard contact en route to a 6.57 ERA.

Stock: Even. The performance was bad, but Beeks doesn’t have much stock to begin with. The strikeout stuff was nice to see, and as I said in Dubon’s section home runs are an issue for everyone here. He’s still the same guy with a ceiling of a back-end starter and more likely future as either a back-and-forth arm or a middle reliever.

Danny Mars

We won’t spend too much time here, as Mars is the least exciting name in this bunch. A former sixth-round pick, he spent the season hitting reasonably well in Salem. In Arizona, though, he hit .259/.290/.293 in 17 games.

Stock: Down. Only a little, though. As I said, Mars was never all that exciting to begin with. However, even if the scouts didn’t love him he always put up solid numbers in the minors. Not doing so in Arizona is clearly not a good sign.

 Photo by Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Sam Travis (1B)

Sam Travis, who a mystery scout threw the deliriously exciting Paul Goldschmidt comp on earlier this spring, has been doing his part to live up to the hype. Travis has moved quickly through the Red Sox system. He started the 2015 season at High-A Salem where he crushed opposing pitching to the point that he was promoted to Double-A Portland midway through the season. Once there, he continued his impressive output at the plate. While only accumulating 281 PA at Double-A, Travis’ performance this spring (.469/.429/.719, with two doubles and two home runs) pushed the Red Sox to assign him to the Triple-A level to start the 2016 season.

At Pawtucket this season, the 22-year old has been knocking the ball all over the yard. Five of his 20 hits have gone for extra-bases (three doubles, two home runs) and he has collected multiple hits in seven of his first 17 games. His bat is going to need to carry him to the next level, as due to his lack of speed he is likely limited to playing first base and with that is likely not going to be a standout defender. Travis’ lack of speed/athleticism is something that sticks out as making the Goldschmidt comp silly, but really the comparison is merely something to dream on and not to be taken as an expectation of Travis’ future. Regardless, if Travis can keep hitting the way he has this season at Pawtucket, he could see some action in Boston in September and it is probably not too wild to think that he could have a spot at first base in Fenway Park in 2017. It will be difficult to move Gold Glove first-baseman Hanley Ramirez to the designated hitter spot, but doing so and keeping Travis Shaw at third base opens a big league spot for someone like Sam Travis.

Quick updates on Rusney Castillo (OF) and Blake Swihart (C, OF)

Since we last checked in on him, Rusney Castillo has slowed from his torrid hitting pace. He connected for three singles in his last 16 at-bats, earning nary a walk, and striking out three times. At Pawtucket, his ground-out to fly-out ratio is 1.75, so he is still struggling getting the ball in the air.

Blake Swihart was sent to Pawtucket to work on improving his defense, unfortunately his offense has taken a serious slide. He has a .161/.257/.194 line in 31 PA. It is difficult to know how the defensive side of things are progressing, but he has thrown out three of eight base runners attempting to steal.

Double-A Portland: Wendell Rijo (2B) and Teddy Stankiewicz (RHP)

Last year at High-A Salem, Rijo demonstrated the ability with the bat he showed at the Low-A level in 2014 was for real, as he slashed .260/.324/.381 in 455 plate appearances against the better competition. Unfortunately the progression has not continued with his promotion to Double-A. Through the first few weeks of the season, Rijo is hitting a meager .205/.255/.341, a considerable step back from his efforts at the lower levels. He is striking out more, walking less, and because of the low on-base percentage has not had a chance to employ his speed on the bases. We know he can be a threat, as he stole 15 bases last season (in 22 tries) and 16 the season before that (again in 22 tries), but as the old saying goes: you can’t steal first base. There is obviously no need for panic. It is still the early days of the season and Rijo has shown these same sorts of initial struggles when adapting to his new level in each of the last two seasons. He has time to adjust to the better pitching, continue honing his grasp on the strike zone and get back to hitting like he has in the past. Rijo is just 20-years old – quite young for Double-A – and with players ahead of him like Devon Marrero and Dustin Pedroia there is no need to push him through the system quickly.

In addition to having one of the best names in the Red Sox system, Teddy “STANK” Stankiewicz has been dominating hitters. In his three starts this season Stank has thrown 18.0 innings (an even 6.0 in each), allowed only two runs, 13 hits, one walk, and 16 strikeouts. Add all that up and you have a guy with a 1.00 ERA (1.53 FIP). Stank’s tremendous results so far are remarkably different from his 2015 season at High-A Salem. Last year he struggled to strike batters out, posting the lowest rate of his young career, and walked too many batters, posting the highest rate of his career. Together that is a bad combination and clearly contributed to his career high 4.01 ERA (4.03 FIP). While we only have three starts to judge him by this year, he appears to have cured what was ailing him in 2015. If he continues the dominance he has shown in the early going of the 2016 season he should end the season in Pawtucket, with an outside shot of being in Boston at some point in 2017.

High-A Salem: Jalen Beeks (LHP)

While Salem’s offense gets most of the attention, the pitching staff has a few players who have been performing at a really high level in the early going. One example is 22-year old, left-hander Jalen Beeks. Beeks has started three games for the Salem squad, posting 15.2 innings of one run ball. His 0.57 ERA is the fourth lowest mark among pitchers in High-A who have made at least three starts. It is worth noting that his fielding independent mark is much higher (2.53), which suggests he has had considerably good fortune in the early going. For example, his 95 percent left-on-base rate is not sustainable and we can expect that more of the baserunners he is allowing (almost seven per outing) will be coming around to score over his next few starts. Regardless, he has been a bright spot thus far.

Quick updates on the Big-Three:

Since we last checked in with him last week, Yoan Moncada has added six more hits (one double) and one walk to his season total, pushing his line to .350/.474/.483.

Andrew Benintendi has kept pace with Moncada, knocking out six hits in his last four games, four of which went for two-bases. His line is now at .333/.390/.623.

Rafael Devers has continued to struggle, going 1 (a single) for his last 11, walking twice and striking out three times. Hopefully he can get things headed in the right direction soon.

Low-A Greenville: Josh Ockimey (1B) and Austin Rei (C)

The Greenville Drive team can really hit. They have posted 5.67 runs per game over the first 18 games of the season. A major part of the team’s offense is first-baseman Josh Ockimey. Ockimey has already clubbed five home runs, which is tied with three other players for top mark in Low-A, and one more than he hit in 229 PA with Lowell in 2015. He has two doubles and a triple to go with those home runs, all together posting a .629 slugging percentage that is sixth highest among hitters with at least 50 PA. He can really mash. Even better news is that while he can clearly crush baseballs, he is not doing so at the expense of a wildly high strikeout rate. He has struck out 16 times but has impressively walked almost as many times (14). Of course we must recognize the South Atlantic League, in which the Drive play, tends to be favorable for hitters, but Ockimey’s early results are still excellent.

Surprisingly, the Drive’s offense has been as good as it has been despite a slow start from top-10 prospect Austin Rei. Rei did not hit well last season at Lowell (.179/.285/.295) and that has continued in 2016 at the next level. Through his first 52 trips to the plate, Rei has managed a .186/.327/.302 line. The on-base percentage is nice to see, but he is striking out twice as often as he is walking (12:6), which is really troubling. However, the top-10 ranking was not hinged on his offense, but rather his playing a premium position. The BP prospect team suggested that his defense was terrific and how he would provide value to the organization. It is impossible for me to comment on his defense without actually watching Rei over multiple games, but a concerning report at SoxProspects.com outlines his defense being much more variable than expected; combining excellent moments with an inability to catch pitches in the strike zone. These defensive issues could be due to lingering issues with a left-thumb ligament injury. If they continue, essentially tanking his standout tool, his prospect stock could fall dramatically.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Chris Marrero, 1B

Since we wrote about Deven Marrero last week, now seems like a good time to introduce you to his brother, Chris Marrero. Chris Marrero is actually the older and more experienced of the two, but has struggled to surpass the Triple-A level over the past four years. The Red Sox just signed Marrero a month ago after he started the season in the White Sox organization. This recent move just adds to the list of teams the first baseman has played for in the last two seasons. Marrero was drafted in the first round by the Nationals in 2006 and was a top prospect in the organization up until his ascension to the big leagues in 2011, when he played 31 games in Washington. However, a torn hamstring and a series of other ailments set Marrero back tremendously, derailing what once looked like a promising career. Since then, he’s played in eight major league games — all with the Nationals in 2013 — and has bounced from Washington to the Orioles to Chicago and now to Boston. His potential has diminished and his numbers haven’t been the same since.

Signing with the Red Sox offers Marrero yet another chance, but he’s yet to truly capitalize on that opportunity, sporting a .155 true average through 14 games in Triple-A Pawtucket. However, he’s collected hits in five of his last eight games. Three of those games have been multi-hit efforts. Marrero doesn’t have outstanding plate discipline or knowledge of the strike zone, and doesn’t possess the power swing he boasted before his injuries, but he can make solid contact. That’s translated to more hits lately. If he can finish strong at the end of the season, perhaps he’ll earn a chance to stick around.

Double-A Portland: Sam Travis, 1B

The Eastern League season is almost over. But Sam Travis seems primed to make one last impression before the offseason. Travis, who was drafted in the second round in 2014, continues to make strides at the plate. Of course, his numbers are still strong — he owns a .288 TAv and .362 wOBA in 60 games in Double-A. And just last week he went 7-for-13 with three extra-base hits over a four-game stretch. However, what’s been most impressive lately is the way he’s increased his walk rate (10.5 percent) and lowered his strikeout rate (12.5 percent) from where they were in Salem earlier this season. In fact, just last Friday he had a six-game walk streak snapped. That strike zone knowledge, along with his steady line-drive ability, makes him a greater threat at the plate.

The one knock on Travis continues to be his lack of power. He has the raw power to become a 15- to 20-home run hitter, but his line-drive approach has compromised that power-hitting potential. With that said, Travis’ numbers suggest his approach is the right one. His on-base percentage sits at .366 and he’s by far the biggest threat in Portland’s lineup. Additional strength and power in his bat would make him a more complete hitter, something that could be valuable as he makes his case for Triple-A next season.

High-A Salem: Kevin McAvoy, RHP and Kevin Heller, OF

Kevin McAvoy doesn’t boast elite-potential stuff or outstanding velocity. He throws just three pitches — a fastball, slider and changeup — none of which will necessarily overwhelm hitters. Nothing he does screams future ace. But, what McAvoy has been and continues to be is steady. The right-hander has been perhaps Salem’s most reliable starting pitcher this season, sporting a 4.17 FIP and 5.29 K/9 through 24 starts. Nothing special, no. But at least with McAvoy Salem knows what it’s getting most nights. The Bryant University product’s scattered three truly ugly starts this season — the most recent being an nine-run clunker over 3.2 innings July 21 — but has been strong outside of that, owning a 1.94 ERA over his last six starts.

At 22, McAvoy could move up to Double-A by next season. He has the potential to become a back-end starter, but the 2014 fourth-round pick still has much to improve. His fastball command needs work, especially as a pitcher who induces weak, ground-ball contact by attacking the low end of the zone. His 4.61 BB/9 is a drastic increase from his 0.95 rate over 11 games in Lowell. McAvoy didn’t start throwing his changeup until he was drafted. If he can’t develop that then a fastball-slider mix may be better suited out of the bullpen. But McAvoy’s dependability as a starter thus far at least buys him some time.

It’s probably no coincidence that Amherst College graduate Ben Cherington and his staff used his 40th round pick in 2012 on Kevin Heller — another Amherst guy. But regardless of whether or not Cherington was doing a service to his alma mater, what is clear is that Heller is making the most of his opportunity. The outfielder has a .314 TAv in High-A this season along with a .396 wOBA and 124 wRC+. However, he’s failed in each opportunity in Double-A, and as a player who turns 26 next week, he can only stick around in High-A for so long. While he makes solid contact, Heller strikes out at a consistently high rate. Even in Salem, where he’s excelled, he owns a 21.6 percent K%. That, of course, is something that needs to improve if he wants to further his success and secure a spot in Portland at some point next season.

Low-A Greenville: Andrew Benintendi, OF and Jalen Beeks, LHP

In case you were wondering, 2015 first-round pick Andrew Benintendi is still tearing up the South Atlantic League. The outfielder hasn’t taken long to establish himself as an exciting young prospect, hitting .341/.423/.568 with a pair of home runs through his first 11 games with Low-A Greenville. He’s been especially hot lately with a five-game hitting streak in which he’s hit .380 (8-for-21) and driven in six runs. Benintendi has all the tools the Red Sox need in a young position player. He has plus speed, good bat speed and raw power that is already starting to translate professionally. Eleven games is a small sample size, but the Arkansas product is just building off the success he had in Lowell and in college — he was named SEC Player of the Year this past season. While carrying this into next season isn’t a guarantee for Benintendi, there’s been at least enough to prove he has exciting potential.

Jalen Beeks is another pitcher who’s not made to do the extraordinary. He’s an undersized lefty with a fastball-slider-changeup mix that all work within an average velocity. His numbers — a 4.36 FIP this season — aren’t eye-popping. Like Benintendi, he’s an Arkansas product, but without the flare and high ceiling. Beeks was drafted in the 12th round in 2014, but there’s reason to believe he could become a serviceable player in time. First of all, he’s shown good command throughout his first 24 games, boasting a solid 3.56 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s also been dependable, tossing 138.2 innings over those starts. He has a unique delivery with a high leg kick, but it’s deceptive. One concern with Beeks is a history of arm issues, which may explain his recent drop-off over his past few starts. Beeks has been solid all season long, but has struggled toward the end, allowing four or more runs in three of his last four starts. If the arm continues to be a longterm problem, Beeks may at some point have to move to the bullpen. Perhaps his ability to limit walks, throw strikes and use his unique, left-handed delivery to his advantage already makes him better suited as a reliever.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com