For all those teams’ success, there’s a notable local organization lagging behind in terms of hype: the Red Sox. Few people seem to be talking about them right now. It’s been an unusually quiet offseason across the MLB, but perhaps the only Red Sox talking point of note right now is the extended stare-down with free agent J.D. Martinez. After that, it’s… Mitch Moreland’s two-year deal? Yikes.

I’m not used to feeling so unenthused about the Red Sox. They were the team that brought me into Boston sports, after all. In a manner of speaking, I suppose I’m sort of a bandwagon fan, but it wasn’t one of the championship teams that brought me here. No, it was the 2009 team that did that — if you remember, that’s the one that got swept by the Angels in the ALDS.

It was a simple decision: “Maybe I’ll give baseball a shot.” I was in high school, and football wasn’t quite cutting it for me, so I felt it was time to branch out. The Red Sox and Angels were on, and it didn’t take long for me to get hooked. I loved Dustin Pedroia’s fiery demeanor, David Ortiz’s easy confidence, and most of all, Kevin Youkilis’ completely absurd batting stance. Jon Lester’s triumph over lymphoma was incredibly cool, and Josh Beckett looked liable to beat up an opposing hitter at a moment’s notice, which was also pretty cool in its own way.

The season ended too soon after, but it was a busy offseason for me; I needed to learn more about these players, this franchise, this city. I knew about The Curse and the legendary 2004 team that finally ended it. I didn’t know about the comeback against the Yankees, or Kevin Millar’s endless quotability, or Manny’s tendency to always be Manny. I didn’t know they went back and did it again in 2007 with plenty of new faces, including the undefinable Pedroia, the Laser Show and the Muddy Chicken, who I did know was a man after my own heart as soon as I read about his “Ask Jeff Francis who the fuck I am,” quote.

I’m on my ninth year with the Boston Red Sox now, and I’ve seen my fair share of highs and lows, from fried chicken and beer to getting a chance to watch a Boston championship myself. I got to see David Ortiz’s famed postseason heroics live before my eyes, as he was engulfed in flames against the Cardinals and drove the team of beards and Koji Uehara high fives to their third title in ten years. Those 2013 Red Sox rebounded from the worst record in the AL East the year before, which in some ways encapsulates what its been like to follow this team over that time.

If the Red Sox built my Boston fandom, then the Celtics cemented it. My timing wasn’t any better with them — I started following just late enough to miss the dominant 2007-08 championship team. Still, over the next several seasons, I was hooked. The “Big Three” Celtics were a team of dominant personalities — Paul Pierce’s unshakable confidence, Kevin Garnett’s frenzied barking, Ray Allen’s unflappable consistency — and even as they all began to grow old, there was a pridefulness to them. The decrepit Celtics were an annoyance, the team that would give too much effort every night and use their veteran saavy to frustrate younger, more athletic teams. They took LeBron James and the eventual champion Miami Heat to seven games in the 2011-12 Eastern Conference Finals, and it was sort of a last hurrah for the group. LeBron might have buried them, but they went out swinging.

Since the Celtics’ loss to Miami and the Red Sox win over St. Louis the next year, the two franchises have seemed to trend in different directions. The Celtics hit rock bottom in 2013-14, going 25-57 and finishing 12th in the Eastern Conference. They’ve made the playoffs and improved their record in every season since. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been, to some extent, treading water. They’ve posted two losing seasons since the championship, followed by consecutive 93-win campaigns where they never really felt like a legitimate contender.

It feels as though there’s just more of a plan behind the Celtics than the Red Sox. Danny Ainge has spent years meticulously compiling and flipping draft picks, capitalizing on undervalued players, and finding the right opportunities to spend. The two most significant free agent signings in franchise history — Al Horford and Gordon Hayward — came in the past two offseasons. Ainge avoids panic moves and trades from a position of strength as well as any GM in professional sports, to the point where he’s often teased for his reluctance to part with his assets. This past summer, the Celtics passed on a number of potential deals for superstars who changed teams. Paul George was available, but is also on the final year of his contract, likely to bolt for Los Angeles this coming summer. It was a bad bet for Ainge to pay up for a player he couldn’t guarantee he could keep, so he didn’t.

On the flip side, the Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two — Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski. Cherington, though he had his own faults, was more similar to Ainge — building up the farm system and avoiding bad contracts that would kill flexibility… right up until he signed two awful contracts that destroyed his flexibility in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.

The Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two.

Enter Dombrowski, who, to a fault, loves the big splash. Dombrowski was hired in August of 2015, and by November, he’d already shelled out $217 million to David Price and shipped four prospects away in exchange for Craig Kimbrel. That’s not to say these deals were the wrong things to do at the time, but considering Dombrowski’s body of work, it’s a fair critique to say that he often opts to throw money and assets at problems until they go away.

Subsequently, this current offseason isn’t terribly surprising. Dombrowski is locked in a staring contest with J.D. Martinez, who is a player this lineup desperately needs. The Red Sox are starved for power, and previous deals have left the farm system depleted enough to make trades for top-end talent difficult. If Martinez ends up elsewhere, there may not be another move to be made right now.

And in some ways, that’s the point. Danny Ainge didn’t need Paul George. He was building on a team that made the conference finals the year before and months later is sitting in first place in the conference right now, all while sitting on a treasure hoard of draft picks and young talent. He’s a strong, independent GM who don’t need no blockbuster trade. There were dozens of pathways open to the Celtics this past summer, and all Ainge had to do was find the one he liked the best. The one he chose has the Celtics competitive right now without sacrificing virtually any long-term upside.

This kind of result is difficult to achieve without consistency, and, in essence, the Red Sox have been an organizational roller coaster. Cherington took charge and immediately had to address missteps by Theo Epstein, most notably the infamous Carl Crawford contract. Since his departure, Cherington’s carefully cultivated farm system has largely either graduated or been shipped off by Dombrowski. Conversely, Dombrowski has had to struggle with those albatross contracts for Sandoval and Ramirez, the latter of which is still owed $44 million over the next two years, assuming his option vests. They’ve been tying knots and challenging the next guy to unravel them. Is Dave Dombrowski the guy to lead a franchise to sustained, long-term success? Tigers fans of the past three seasons might have some thoughts on the matter.

This is all a long way of saying that, as a fan, the Red Sox don’t give me that feeling of utter confidence the way the Celtics do. Remember the feeling we all had when that large contract for Pablo Sandoval looked likely, even though the case against that signing was obvious? It’s certainly unrealistic to expect any team to operate as efficiently and with as high of a success rate as the Celtics have over the past 10+ years, but there’s an unavoidable aura of “I hope this doesn’t blow up in our faces” in place.

My point is not to predict doom and gloom with the current state of the Red Sox. Far from it. They’re more likely than not to win 90+ games again this season, and they have a collection of young stars like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Rafael Devers that will be anchoring the lineup for years to come. They have two Cy Young winners in their starting rotation, and those guys aren’t even as good as their ace. If you’re going to have problems with your baseball franchise, these are probably the ones to have — it certainly beats being the Derek Jeter-led Marlins.

But following the Red Sox transformed my sports fandom, and not long after that, the Celtics did it again. It’s impossible not to compare the two. I love watching Mookie Betts and Chris Sale, but on the macro level, something’s just fundamentally off with the Red Sox right now, and it’s never more apparent than when the Celtics are on TV. With as much as the team has going for it right now, it’s telling that they’re receiving so little buzz — and that’s without mentioning how the Yankees appear to be rising fast.

I can’t say for sure how good the Red Sox will be this season — too much depends on Martinez’s status, first and foremost. Players like Price, Ramirez, and Pedroia are aging, Chris Sale has two years remaining on his contract, and younger contributors like Betts and Bogaerts are into their arbitration seasons. Jason Groome and Michael Chavis are nice prospects, but even Groome is still a-ways off, and the system around them is thin. Major roster decisions are coming in the next few years, and it’s hard to divine the greater plan in place here — if in fact there is one.

I know the Celtics will be very good, though. They already are, and there isn’t much reason to think they won’t continue to be for years to come. Danny Ainge has put together a well-oiled machine that has missed the playoffs only three times since the 2003-04 season. For a Red Sox franchise in need of some year-to-year consistency and sustained success, looking to their sibling franchise for some ideas might not be the worst idea.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper — USA TODAY Sports

At one point, that being before the 2015 season, Owens was a top 20 prospect, the next great Red Sox starting pitcher, coming up behind such luminaries as Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz, and…did I mention Clay Buchholz? Owens was a gangly six-foot-six with a fastball that could break a pane of glass, assuming that glass wasn’t very thick. He never had great command — or control,  for that matter — but what made it all work was the Greatest Changeup Ever Thrown. It appeared to be Owens’ mediocre-at-best fastball, but then, midway to the plate, it stopped and went straight downward. There it dug a hole into the ground and tunneled beneath the plate and up to the catcher. It was unhittable and hitters appropriately responded by not hitting it. It was that pitch that racked up the strikeouts, especially in the low minors, and brought him up up through the system to Boston for his first major league start as a 22-year-old.

Owens made 11 starts for the Red Sox at the end of the lost season of 2015, holding his own in the process. There were warts visible for sure, but with refinement, especially to his command, it wasn’t hard to see him as a number two starter. It never happened, and in fact, what happened instead was the opposite. Owens command got worse. He was always able to get a few strikeouts but the walks were creeping up and up, into an area unacceptable for a major league pitcher.

That’s where things stood entering the 2017 season.

What Went Right

In a macro sense, nothing. Well, okay, Owens didn’t get hurt, which I suppose is a good place to be when you are a pitcher, but beyond that, everything was pretty much awful for Owens in 2017. He started the year in Triple-A as a 24-year-old, which is fine, though if you’ll recall from a few paragraphs ago, Owens was in Boston as a 22-year-old. That’s not a lot of progress in two seasons. Still, Triple-A is only one rung below the majors. Then the 2017 season started and that concludes What Went Right. Meet me below in the What Went Wrong section for the conclusion to Henry Owens season and his time with the Red Sox.

What Went Wrong

Unlike Triple-A, Double-A is not a rung below the majors, so when Owens was sent there following 69 innings in Pawtucket, it was not a good sign. It was, however, a bit odd considering his numbers. Owens had pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA and was striking out 9.4 per nine innings, all of which are good. However he was also walking 7.8 per nine, and really that only gets to the start of it. Owens command was gone and the Red Sox, tired of seeing him nibble and walk hitter after hitter, tried to shake things up. Things were shaken up, but they did not improve in Double-A where Owens’ K rate went south and his walk rate went north.

Things got so bad that the Red Sox gave up on the idea of Owens as a starter and altered his arm slot in order to make him a sidearming lefty specialist reliever. That didn’t work during the year, so Boston sent him to the Arizona Fall League where things just generally were bad. Walks, few strikeouts, lots of runs allowed, all of it ugh. That was the last straw.

The Red Sox cut Owens from his perch on the 40-man roster and Arizona picked him up. Bye-bye, Henry.

What To Expect

As far as the Red Sox are concerned, there’s nothing to expect. His Red Sox career is finished. For Arizona, Owens is a nice free flyer on a guy who was, at one point in the not too distant past, considered talented. Owens will be 25 this season so perhaps he can find his changeup again and rekindle his flickering-at-best career. In and odd way, a thing he has going for him is his size. It can take very tall pitchers extra seasons to figure out how to repeat their mechanics, something Owens always had difficulty doing. Maybe changing organizations will help Owens. It can’t hurt.

It’s a shame that Owens was never able to find the most basic level of command because his changeup was devastating and the Red Sox sure could use another young pitcher to help at the major league level. Maybe in an alternative universe the Red Sox were able to unlock Owens’ potential and he’s slated for a rotation spot headed into 2018, but in this, the extremely crappy universe we live in, they weren’t. And now Owens is elsewhere and the Red Sox are where they always seem to be, up a creek without a paddle when it comes to developing starting pitching. Maybe this is a trend the team can begin to buck with Jay Groome and now Tanner Houck. You’d hope so. An organization can only coast on having developed Lester and Buchholz for so long.

Photo by Jonathan Dyer – USA TODAY Sports

I don’t need to sell you on Stanton the player, I hope, but here’s the Cliff’s Notes version just in case. He was worth 8.6 WARP last season (around seven WAR via other measurements). He has monster power, a career slugging percentage of over .600, and he’s a fine defensive right fielder who could, you would think, easily move to left field at Fenway Park. He gets on base well and he’ll be only 28 years old next season so it’s easy to imagine him being around and productive for a long time to come. So that’s all great and you can see why teams want him.

The complicating factors though are many, and this is where things get fun. First, Stanton has a long-term contract that will pay him $295 million over the next 10 seasons. That’s a lot of money to take on. You could make the argument that if he were a free agent right now that some team would give that to him, and you might be right, but there’s two more factors that compound things. The first is Stanton has an opt-out clause that he can use to become a free agent after the 2020 season. However, the team that deals for him doesn’t know if they’re getting Stanton for three years and $77 million, or 10 years and $295 million, and they don’t get to pick which and they don’t get to know which until likely the last second (and if they know sooner it’s probably not a good thing). It’s not hard to imagine those two hugely different amounts of time and money representing very different values to teams.

The second complicating factor is Stanton’s no-trade clause, also included in his contract by the Marlins. This isn’t one of those where the player can pick 10 or 15 teams he doesn’t want to be traded to. This is a full no-trade. Stanton can’t be dealt without his permission, period. This means if Stanton doesn’t want to come to Boston then he doesn’t have to come to Boston. But it also means Stanton can pick a team he wants to be dealt to and tell the Marlins that’s it, deal me there or nowhere. Or, Stanton could be less hard-headed about it and give the Marlins multiple teams with which he will accept a trade. Or he could tell them that he’ll approve a deal anywhere. The thing about all these possibilities is we just don’t know what he’s thinking. Presumably the Marlins do, or will, but as of now, nothing has come out about Stanton’s desires nor his level of desire to engineer his own destination.

Stanton’s no-trade and the liberality in which he uses it will greatly affect what the Marlins can get for him in return. If Stanton says “I’m only going to the Red Sox,” then the Red Sox aren’t going to give the Marlins very much and Marlins will have to decide how badly they want to get Stanton’s money off their books. Is it worth just being rid of Stanton even if they get very little in return for their most marketable player? If there are two teams involved, then at least they can be pitted against each other in the deal and the Marlins would presumably get more back. But even then the total money committed by the acquiring team, who must be prepared to pay all of Stanton’s salary even if he ends up opting out, and the uncertainty created by the opt-out are massive barriers to the Marlins getting a good return.

Typically a trade involves satisfying two people: the GM of the first team and the GM of the second team. Trading for Stanton involves satisfying the GM of both teams, the owner of the acquiring team (because of the massive amount of money that team is taking on), the owners of the Marlins (because this is Stanton, and he’s hugely important to the public relations of franchise), and Stanton himself.

Beyond all that, we’ve got the question of where Stanton fits in on the Red Sox. Presumably he would play left field which would mean the Red Sox will have dealt one of the players from their major league outfield. It doesn’t make sense to keep Andrew Benintendi or Jackie Bradley unless Stanton is going to spend most of his time at DH. That could be the plan, but spending $30 million annually on a DH goes strongly against the current thinking about the value of the DH, so likely Stanton would take a permanent place in the outfield.

If the Sox had Stanton for the next 10 years at a discount, you might be able to talk yourself into one or more of those possibilities. But that might not be the situation. And this gets to the heart of this problem.

So what would it take to acquire Stanton? That’s incredibly hard to say. Are the Red Sox taking on all of his salary, or is Miami helping out in some fashion? Are the Red Sox the sole bidder or are they bidding against other teams, and if so how many other teams? These questions are virtually impossible to answer right now.

There’s also the longer term view with which the Red Sox need to consider. David Price and Drew Pomeranz will be free agents after this coming season, and will need to be replaced (unless Price doesn’t opt-out in which case, uh-oh). Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are getting into their arbitration seasons and getting closer to free agency. The Red Sox have lots of money, but not endless amounts, so spending big money on Stanton could mean losing some of the young talent Boston has on hand currently. It could mean filling holes in the starting rotation become more difficult.

There’s a question I’ve been thinking about all throughout this column, and it is this: what if I, Matthew Kory, were the GM of the Red Sox. What would I trade for Stanton? Would I trade Andrew Benintendi and Eduardo Rodriguez? That’s a tremendous amount of young talent to deal. What about Benintendi, Rodriguez, and top prospect Jay Groome? Would you throw Chavis in there also? If the Sox had Stanton for the next 10 years at a discount, you might be able to talk yourself into one or more of those possibilities. But that might not be the situation. And this gets to the heart of this problem.

Any player can be dealt. We’ve seen it before with huge contracts trading hands in deals that, before their consummation, would have been thought impossible to pull off. So even though this seems daunting, it could absolutely happen. And Stanton is an amazing player who would look fantastic in the middle of the Red Sox batting order. So the Red Sox should explore things with the Marlins. And they will. But in the end, wouldn’t it be easier to skip all the above and give J.D. Martinez $175 million, check off that box, and move on with your offseason?

What went right in 2017

It’s not hyperbolic to say that Devers represents the rare case of a player who did everything right in 2017. He started the year in Double-A, an important step up from 2016 where he finished the season at High-A Salem. That did not stop him from crushing it there, hitting .300/.369(nice!)/.575 with 18 homers and 40 extra base hits in 322 plate appearances. He was then called up to Triple-A Pawtucket where he hit .400/.447/.600, though it was only in 38 plate appearances because he was then called up to Boston. In Boston, Devers showed tantalizing power, something the big league club was sorely lacking, and a knack for the dramatic. Recall the home run off Aroldis Chapman in the top of the ninth inning to tie an important game at Yankee Stadium.

Actually, let’s all take a moment to recall that…

That. Was. Amazing.

But that wasn’t the only huge moment Devers had in 2017! Recall in the ALDS when, down two runs in the ninth inning (I smell trend!), Devers hit an inside-the-park home run to make it a one run game. Sadly the Sox weren’t able to follow his lead and they lost the series, but Devers gave them a chance when they needed it the most, even if they didn’t take advantage.

On the whole, Devers’ numbers are of a player whose bat belongs at the major league level, even at his young age. He never appeared overmatched at the plate, his strikeout rate is only marginally inflated from what he posted in the minor leagues, and his plate patience and power were consistent with his (very good) minor league numbers. That is saying something considering the massive jump in the level of competition he experienced repeatedly over the course of the 2017 season. In the end, Devers made the majors years before he was expected to, and performed quite well once there.

What went wrong in 2017

You can’t really and fairly say anything went wrong for Devers in 2017 given where he came from and the different levels he advanced past. But if we are to nitpick a bit, Devers’ meteoric rise from the Red Sox third baseman of the future in the deep minors to Red Sox third baseman of the present did mask a few aspects of his game that might not be major league ready. The most prominent on that list is his fielding. Devers has a strong arm, certainly strong enough for third base, and he has the quick reflexes and instincts necessary to play the position at a high level, but there was some roughness around the edges. We saw it mostly in bad throws on what should have been routine outs, often due to bad or lazy footwork, but there were a few mental mistakes thrown in as well. None of this is fatal. Frankly, it isn’t surprising for a player Devers’ age and experience level, and with work it should be entirely correctable.

What to expect in 2018

Improvement. It’s difficult to say exactly what kind because as we know development as a whole isn’t linear, but generally speaking, improvement. With more time at third and more exposure to major league coaching, Devers should cut down on the more glaring mistakes defensively. As he continues to physically mature and starts to master major league pitching (to the extent major league pitching can ever be mastered), his offense should become more productive as well.

There is a possibility Devers could truly break out in 2018 and become the middle-of-the-order bat the Red Sox see in him a few years in the future. He has the bat speed, patience, and power to be ‘that guy,’ probably if we’re being honest, more so than any of the excellent players the Red Sox minor league system has graduated over the last few seasons. Often young players need an adjustment season, especially (again) at Devers’ age, so it may not all come together in 2018. But even if it doesn’t, watching Devers grow will be yet another reason to enjoy Red Sox baseball in 2018.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

You know the reasons, of course. Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Manny Margot, Anderson Espinoza, Luis Alexander Basabe, Mauricio Dubon and others have all been traded in the past 12-or-so months. Factor in disappointing seasons from first-rounders like Deven Marrero, Michael Chavis and Trey Ball, and you get a precipitous drop for a farm system that ranked in at No.5 just a season ago.

“The culprits here are obvious. The Red Sox, Nats, and Indians all traded major pieces from their system in the last twelve months,” Jeffery Paternostro wrote in the 2017 edition. However, he noted, “Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Jason Groome, Victor Robles, Juan Soto, Francisco Mejia, and Triston McKenzie can paper over a lot of depth issues.”

Read the rest of BP’s latest ranking here, and read the Red Sox’s top-10 list (pre-Chris Sale trade) here.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

When he was picked it looked like just another pitching prospect in a system full of them. However, since that time last June, Jason Groome has emerged as the best pitching prospect in Boston’s farm system. Thing is, that emerging wasn’t due to anything he did during that time. Instead, it was “Deal’n Dave” Dombrowski who traded away half the Red Sox prospects, including anything approaching competition for the then-17-year-old lefty, that vaulted Groome into pole position. 

Even so, at just 17 (he’ll be 18 this year), Groome isn’t ready for High-A let alone the majors. Also, considering who is running the show, there’s a better chance Groome makes his major league debut wearing a different team’s hat rather than one with the familiar red ‘B.’ Until one of those days arrives though, Groome is the man-child of the moment, the underage can’t-rent-a-car-yet player Red Sox Nation can get hot and bothered over for the foreseeable future. Or until Dombrowski needs a middle reliever in July. 

WHAT WENT RIGHT IN 2016

Groome was drafted. Actually, that didn’t really go right, for Groome at least. For the Red Sox though it was a bit of a boon. Groome was rated as one of if not the best player available in the draft and as such was expected to go in the first few picks. The Phillies were reportedly talking about selecting him first overall. Instead, he was still on the board when the Red Sox took their turn at 12. To their credit they didn’t try to get cute or save money. They took the best player. The slip was reportedly due to makeup concerns; Groome just couldn’t seem to master rouge or the finer points of eye liner. No matter, the Red Sox gave him lots of money and now he can afford to take all the lessons he wants. 

In the end though Groome was drafted, signed, and started his pro career with the organization he grew up rooting for. His big frame, fast fastball, and what Keith Law called the best amateur curveball he ever saw hold the vast promise of not just a big league career, but All Star-level success. Not bad. All in all, probably a better 2016 than most.

WHAT WENT WRONG IN 2016

Nothing in particular. When a guy with three pro starts to his name stays healthy there’s not much to point to on either side of the ledger. Groome started twice for the Red Sox Rookie team in the Gulf Coast League, and did fine. In 6.2 innings he struck out 10 and walked four while giving up three hits and two runs. What does that mean? In 2002 an 18-year-old Jon Lester gave up six runs on five hits in 0.2 of an inning for the Gulf Coast Red Sox. Which is to say it means nothing. Nothing at all.  

WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2017

In addition to his two starts in the Gulf Coast League, Groome got one start in for Lowell at the end of last season. That’s likely where he’ll begin his age-18 season in 2017. With any luck, he’ll move up to A-Ball in Greenville at some point. As for what to look for, watch the strikeouts and walks. Command is the hardest part of pitching, especially for young pitchers who throw hard (Groome has been clocked in the upper 90s but realistically his fastball sits low-to-mid 90s). If he can command his fastball and secondary pitches he could move rather quickly, especially considering the current Red Sox front office isn’t afraid to push young players if their performance justifies it. If nothing else, Groome offers a fun check-in while you have your morning coffee before that annoying meeting where Bob from accounting drones on and on about TPS reports or whatever. The new best pitching prospect in Boston’s system’s first full season is at hand.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

The State of the System: I could just C&P the Nats lines here. Incredible top five, falls off quickly after that, and past the top ten, even fewer intriguing names than the Nats.

The Top Ten

1. OF Andrew Benintendi
2. IF Yoan Moncada
3. 3B Rafael Devers
4. LHP Jason Groome
5. RHP Michael Kopech
6. OF Luis Alexander Basabe
7. SS Mauricio Dubon
8. 1B Sam Travis
9. LHP Brian Johnson
10. 1B Josh Ockimey

The Big Question: Why don’t we give out 80 hit tools?

Andrew Benintendi is about as sure a bet to hit for a good batting average as a prospect can be. He was a top-ten overall draft pick as a small, late-blooming, moderately bat-first player. The bat has to be really good for that to happen. His minor-league performance record is absolutely flawless, outside of a rough first couple weeks in Double-A that got drowned out in the season line quickly when he started crushing the ball. He is essentially already established as a major-league regular, only eligible for this list because a minor injury kept him just a touch under the rookie-eligibility requirements. He hit .295 for a month-and-a-half in the majors in a pennant race. He’s got one of those picture-perfect beautiful lefty swings. He makes a short, aggressive move on the ball. His wrists are great, his bat speed is excellent, and he has a really good idea of what he wants to do. The ball jumps off his bat in a way it does for the truly special ones. There’s basically nothing to nitpick here. This is the total hit package.

Read the rest ($) at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Joe Kelly (RHP)

Hey. I’m here to talk about Joe Kelly. No I’m not thrilled about it either. He’s 28, so it’s not really a Fenway’s Future thing as much as it is a Fenway’s Please Help In The Present thing. The Red Sox bullpen struggles of late have been both completely predictable and borderline unbelievable, which would seem like a pretty hard duality to achieve.

Enter Joe Kelly’s Great Stuff. In 34 innings at Triple-A, Kelly has a 1.58 FIP and a 1.08 WHIP. He’s averaging 11.1 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. If you want to be skeptical of how useful Joe Kelly can be for a major league team, fine – there’s more than likely a very strong argument there. But what do the Red Sox have to lose? He’s pitched well in Pawtucket and it’s not like the Sox are drowning in bullpen help. Here were are, guys: hoping Joe Kelly can save the bullpen.

Double-A Portland: Yoan Moncada (3B)

Ohhhhh it’s finally happening. I know that there are probably at least a dozen interesting prospects or storylines from Portland this season that should be talked about, but Yoan Moncada is getting called up to the majors so that’s what we’re going to talk about.

Travis Shaw is slashing .189/.268/.360 with a .629 OPS in the second half. Aaron Hill has been even worse, hitting .185/.267/.247 with a .514 OPS in the second half as well. Maybe he’s not as ready as everyone would like him to be, but he’s clearly not going to play everyday unless he is the next Andrew Benintendi (miss you, man). He’s proven himself a capable hitter in Portland, so it’s hard to see the risk in doing this. At the worst,  he’s a pinch runner, though his ankle injury may compromise his top-end speed for now. Anything more than that is gravy. And like many people have pointed out, even if everything goes wrong this September, at some point the Sox will throw out a lineup with Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Bradley, and Moncada, and that’s super exciting.

Single-A: Rafael Devers (3B)

There is nothing new to add to the Devers narrative. He’s continuing to crush the ball in the second half. He’s hitting .335/.376/.567 with a .944 OPS in the second half, including hitting .474/.500/632 with a 1.132 OPS over the last week. He has seven home runs in the second half of the year, and at this point it any sort of struggles are a distant memory. He was also named a Carolina League Post-Season All Star, so that’s cool too.

Bonus Jason Groome Update!

He’s already been promoted to Lowell and that noise you hear is the sound of my expectations for him soaring to unrealistic heights. In his second pro outing he threw two innings while allowing two hits, one run and striking out five. He reported to Lowell yesterday and will make his first start for them on Friday.

Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson (LHP)

Johnson has had something of a tough 2016, working through anxiety issues that sidelined him for the better part of two months. The lefty returned to action at the beginning of July, making four starts in the low minors (two in rookie ball, another pair for Low-A Greenville) before returning to his spot in the Pawtucket rotation July 24. And since doing so, he’s been impressive. His first start back with the Triple-A squad was rough, as he lasted just three innings. But Johnson’s four subsequent starts have been masterful, working to a 1.78 ERA with a 3-1 record across a combined 25.1 innings. He has never had much in the way of a swing-and-miss pitch (nothing compared to the almighty Joe Kelly’s #stuff), and that hasn’t changed this year. But in these past four starts, Johnson has shown very solid control, walking only four while striking a passable 15. That has been good enough to keep his WHIP at a remarkably tidy 0.91.

The almost-downside to this short stretch is Johnson’s slightly inflated 3.57 FIP. All of these stats, of course, are accompanied by a flashing bright red sign reading “small sample size.” Regardless, props to Brian Johnson. By all accounts, it’s been a tough year for the big hurler, but he’s bounced back to an impressive performance level. After Henry Owens’ eight-run showing on Sunday, Johnson could be next in line to start if Eduardo Rodriguez can’t make his next start.

Also hey don’t look now but Rusney Castillo kinda sorta might be hitting .366 since July 27. He also may or may not have zero home runs in that 22-game span. But, psh, who likes homers anyway. Hooray for $72.5 million Cuban investments!

Double-A Portland: Mauricio Dubon (SS)

So, you may have heard, but the Red Sox have two young prospects that have spent the bulk of the season in Portland. And, believe it or not, the Sea Dogs have players that are not Yoan Moncada or Andrew Benintendi. Mauricio Dubon is one of those players, and also concurrently is good at baseball. Dubon is slashing .332/.365/.526 in 49 games since being called up to Double-A, knocking four homers and driving in 31. All of those dingers have come since July 31, during an 18-game stretch where the Dubon is hitting .370 with a 1.066 OPS.

Dubon clearly thinks walks are for nerds, taking free passes just 4.8 percent of the time, but he’s also not too whiff-prone, striking out in just 9.9 percent of at-bats since the end of July. SoxProspects has Dubon listed as the 11th-best prospect in the Red Sox system, but he might climb his way up at least slightly if he wraps up the season hitting as well as he has thus far at Double-A.

Quick update on Yoan Moncada:

The Cuban phenom is back from a pretty rough-looking ankle sprain. And he’s playing third now, where he could actually find playing time at the Major League level! Swell! Well, in his first game at the hot corner, Moncada went 0-for-5 with four punch outs and an error. So, yeah. But from the good news corner, he looked better in his second day at third on Monday. According to noted smart person Ben Badler of Baseball America, he has a plus arm and good range on the left side of the infield.

High-A Salem: Michael Kopech (RHP)

He may not be touching 105 MPH in every start, but Kopech has remained incredibly effective with the Salem squad in his couple months since returning to the mound. The somehow-just-20-year-old is 3-1 (meaningless win-loss record alert!) with a 1.29 ERA in 10 starts. He’s walked a bunch of dudes who definitely are incapable of hitting him, issuing 26 free passes while only allowing 27 hits. Still, he has kept his WHIP at a very palatable 1.09. Kopech also refuses to stop striking everyone out. Seriously, it’s a little ridiculous. He has 75 punch outs in 48.2 innings pitched. He has 10 or more K’s in three of his past four starts. Kopech might be just a little bit too good for High-A.

Gulf Coast League: Jason Groome (LHP)

Yeah, that’s right, we’re going all the way down to Rookie Ball in Fort Myers. You probably thought you wouldn’t have to hear about that place until next February, yet here we are, and it’s all due to 12th-overall pick this year Jason Groome. The left-hander made his professional debut on Monday, throwing two shutout innings on 30 pitches, 19 of which went for strikes. He allowed a single hit and struck out three. If you want to read some actual reporting and quotes from Groome’s debut, go check out Alex Speier’s writeup in the Globe. In the meantime, rejoice over the addition of another pitching prospect to pile high with unreasonable expectations!

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

But let’s start at the beginning and work from there. The beginning, at least as far as the Red Sox are concerned, is the 2016 Major League Draft. Groome wasn’t the consensus top pick, but he was close. Baseball America had him as the best available talent in the draft. Baseball Prospectus’s own Chris Crawford had Groome first overall on his board as well, as did Perfect Game. ESPN’s Keith Law wasn’t nearly so high on Groome, pushing him all the way back to second on his draft board. The Red Sox had the 12th choice in the draft so Groome seemed certain to be picked by the time they got their chance, but as it turned out, he was available and the Red Sox, unaccustomed to seeing a potential top-of-the-rotation pitcher sitting there, snatched him up.

The Red Sox, unaccustomed to seeing a potential top-of-the-rotation pitcher sitting there, snatched Groome up.

It wasn’t just dumb luck that Groome was sitting there undrafted after 11 picks. There were reasons he was available. As a high school pitcher Groome had the ability to go to college and re-enter the draft in three years. Groome initially committed to Vanderbilt University but then just before the draft he de-committed and re-committed to a junior college in Florida instead. Doing this gave him the ability to re-enter the draft next season instead of waiting three years. For any team that drafted him, this meant Groome has increased his leverage in negotiations.

The other reason a 17-year-old almost-consensus top talent was available was because he possessed, as the scouting community terms, makeup issues. This is a nice and unspecific way of saying Groome is immature, kind of a jerk, or has done something illegal or at least morally wrong. As nobody went on record saying what the specific issues were, it’s likely one of the first two. Even so, these kind of things can be severe enough to spoil the pick, as in the case of Red Sox 2013 draft pick Jon Denny. Or they can be wildly overblown, as in the case of Nationals star Bryce Harper. The team was certainly privy to whatever issue(s) caused Groome to fall and they drafted him anyway. That doesn’t mean they are unimportant, just that in the organization’s estimation, they aren’t a deal-breaker, for whatever that’s worth. In time, the reasons Groome was drafted hopefully will out-shine the reasons he fell. The Red Sox hope so, in any case.

So what did the Red Sox see in Groome? For one thing, he’s 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds. You might not call that the exact ideal pitcher’s build, maybe an inch or two shorter would be preferable, but it’s close. Size like that has its advantages, and maybe most importantly, you can’t teach a player to get larger and stronger. Players have maximum sizes that they can reach based on their body type and Groome’s is maximum size is larger and stronger than most. That’s good when it comes to standing up to the rigors of major league pitching. The good thing about the height is that it provides extra downward plane on his fastball. Additionally, when you release the ball closer to the plate, it takes less time to get there, and gives the batter less time to react. It’s like additional velocity without the wear and tear on a pitcher’s arm. The danger is at that height it can be difficult to maintain consistent mechanics, but so far that hasn’t been an issue for Groome.

Groome isn’t just some physical specimen though. His fastball touches the mid-90s and with a player of his age coming out of high school, there is always the ability to gain strength and thus increase velocity once he enters a professional setting. There are high schoolers who throw hard and high schoolers who are tall and strong, and they typically get scouts excited about their potential, but the ability to pitch at the major league level requires more than size and velocity; it requires command, control, and stamina. Groome was ranked so highly because he has plus-plus secondary pitches including a curveball that is reportedly fantastic. He also throws a changeup that is supposedly a fine pitch but it’s the curve when combined with the fastball that makes his pitch mix so intriguing. Add that pitch mix and the good command that he’s shown and you get a dominating pitcher who struck out 77 batters against nine walks in 43 high school innings pitched.

The fact that teenagers still have much physical and mental maturation remaining makes teenaged pitching prospects that much more impossible to project accurately.

Pitching prospects are notoriously difficult to develop, so it makes sense to stock up and deal from depth when you have to, which the Red Sox did. You may recall TINSTAAPP, an acronym for There’s No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. You could add to that and coin the acronym TINSTAATPP by throwing the word “teenaged” in there as well if you weren’t worried anyone actually pronouncing that would spit all over the unfortunate person sitting across from them. The fact that teenagers still have much physical and mental maturation remaining makes teenaged pitching prospects that much more impossible to project accurately. Drew Pomeranz himself was the fifth overall draft pick before bouncing through three different organizations. It wasn’t until his he reached his fourth team, the Padres, that he started to reach the potential for which he was drafted back in 2010. This uncertainty of projection applies equally to Groome and Espinoza.

Like Espinoza, Groome represents a single shot at the seemingly unreachable, that of a home grown ace-level starting pitcher. But Groome is not Anderson Espinoza, he’s a different person, a different pitcher. He is younger and has less experience. He’s left-handed. But for now, for the Red Sox, he’s not really any different. Just like Espinoza was, Groome is promise, he is projection, he is nebulously the future. One day he may step on the mound at Fenway with the weight of all his promise on his shoulders. Or he may be a trade chip to use before a deadline in seasons to come. That doesn’t matter now though. For now, the Red Sox have a badly needed starting pitcher in Pomeranz, and they have a new ‘future ace.’ It doesn’t particularly matter whether his name is Jason or Anderson. Either way. Hooray for the present. Hooray for the future.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com