As I detailed earlier in the season, Boston’s in a rather stable position going into the 2015-2016 arbitration window. With most of the team’s most critical players either still playing out the string on league-minimum deals (Mookie! Xander! Hooray!) or in the midst of pricey open-market deals and extensions (Porcello! Pablo! Boo!), the Sox are a team without a whole lot of uncertainty going into the arb process.

Recently, Matt Swartz came out with his offseason arbitration projections over at MLB Trade Rumors. Predicting things is a terrible business, but just like the old BP Annuals, Matt’s projections are deadly accurate. Using these arbitration projections as a guide to what a player will end up with is almost always a safe bet, and a great way to manage expectations.

Today, I thought it might be fun to take a look at the team’s current arb-eligible players, and find out what tact the team may take when it comes to the offseason. Knowing what we know now — that the team will likely be looking to build a fresh bullpen and hopefully reload to leap back into contention — I think we can make a reasonable guess as to which players will return, barring a trade or three. And that’s especially true given that all seven players for which the Sox need to make an arbitration decision come from the team’s sketchy bullpen.

The Definites: Junichi Tazawa, Joe Kelly and Robbie Ross

These three relievers (well, two relievers and a should be reliever) are, perhaps, the team’s best relievers under the age of 40, and for that reason it is extraordinarily unlikely that the team would non-tender any of them. In addition, none of these players has the counting stats that become overvalued in the arbitration process: namely saves and innings pitched. Let’s try to break them down one-by-one.

Junichi Tazawa — Projected 2016 Salary: $3.3 million

Unlike most of the pitchers on this list, I think there’s a pretty solid consensus that Tazawa is both an above-average reliever and under-valued compared to the open market. Junichi is heading into his final arbitration season, and for a player with both his pedigree and time in the league, this is a great value.

More than any other pitcher in the Boston bullpen, Tazawa has a proven “true talent” ability. cFIP, which measures this, posits that Tazawa has a score of 84 for his big league career, which is solidly above-average. While his seasonal ERA and DRA were down in ‘15, he got BABIPed to death (.349) and had tough luck with his strand rate (71%). He should be a keeper, and be a fine late-relief option, if not a dominant relief ace.

Joe Kelly — Projected 2016 Salary: $3.2 million

Here’s the thing: if Kelly does somehow transform into a relief ace, then his arbitration cost is just fine. If Kelly continues to be used in the rotation, pretty much at any non-disaster level of performance, then his arbitration cost is fine. But if he’s a bullpen JAG (just another guy), then while 2016 may be an okay term, the team will almost certainly have to trade or non-tender him after next season.

As a swingman, well, you’re probably not very excited about Kelly. Neither am I. I’d love to see if his already-nice fastball picks up a few ticks in short work, and maybe he can mothball his not-so-nice curveball. We already know that Dombrowski has come out in favor of Kelly as a starter, which is fine, I suppose, but on a team that could use bullpen weapons and has good-ish starters galore, I’d like to see them consider converting him.

He’ll be fine. And either way, he’s likely worth the money.

Robbie Ross — Projected 2016 Salary: $1.1 million

Robbie Ross may have been the team’s closer and best reliever near the end of the season, but there’s no circumstance where the team wishes for him to be the ninth-inning guy in 2016. Ross is left-handed and okay, which is great, since no one else currently in the bullpen is both left-handed and okay. His overall numbers for 2015 are pretty average: a cFIP of 99 says that he’s about league-average in terms of true talent, and a DRA of 4.07 says that he about got what he deserved in terms of runs against. Of course, Ross seemed to improve in the second half of the season, and it’s possible that he’ll beat his 2015 numbers rather than fall apart.

Ross’s salary projection is $1.1 million, which is chump change for a slightly above-average reliever. Boston should end up paying this in a heartbeat, if they don’t figure out some sort of short-term extension instead. Going year-to-year on Ross is fine, but extending him on a value contract is great too, as the stability of having a solid ‘pen lefty is a nice thing to have. He’ll be back.

The Maybes: Anthony Varvaro, Jean Machi, and Ryan Cook

Anthony Varvaro — Projected 2016 Salary: $700k

I’m inclined to dump off Varvaro, but mainly because of his injury issue. To put a fine point on it, Varvaro’s flexor tendon tear, which took him out of the bullpen in May after just 11 innings, caused Varvaro to be waived, claimed by the Cubs, and then returned to the Sox after his injury was found to be more serious than anticipated.

Varvaro had been pretty good in the two seasons before coming to Boston, where he saw his walk rate and BABIP get much, much worse. But given his injury issues, I’m not certain that the Red Sox would need to offer him anything above the league minimum to retain him. Varvaro’s reverse platoon split is nice to have when your bullpen isn’t exactly stacked with lefty-killers, but there’s already been a lot of performance variance, and the injury issues are a red flag. I’d think the team could let him fly, and perhaps bring him back on a minor-league show-me deal instead.

Jean Machi — Projected 2016 Salary: $900k

Machi’s ERA in his two seasons prior to this most recent one is immaculate, but his 2015 performance was … not. It’s a long walk from his ERA from being in the mid-twos to five-plus, but Machi’s underlying peripherals didn’t change all that much. You saw how his Boston run was damaged by giving up lots of hits and homers, something that perhaps an improved Boston defense could help mitigate in 2016. At the same time, Machi has never had dominant stuff, and his career cFIP of 100 basically screams league-average.

Though Machi hasn’t looked sharp in his short time with Boston, his 1.3 WARP in each of the two previous seasons shows he’s got the potential to be better than just an okay bullpen piece — those are really good numbers. I’d expect somewhere between half a win and three quarters next season and, on a cost of less than a million, I’d keep that.

Ryan Cook — Projected 2016 Salary: $1.4 million

This is the toughest decision, for me at least. Even though Cook looked pretty good as recently as 2014, his 2015 was a hot mess. You can forgive his terrible eight-and-two-thirds innings at the big league level as a small sample size, but his run at Nashville before coming over to the Sox was pretty shoddy as well. However, his time in Pawtucket was very, very strong in a limited sample.

Cook has potential, sure, but I have to think a non-tender is the right move here. Yeah, a million and a half is chump change for this team, but it’s also an unnecessary risk for a squad that needs a complete overhaul. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if a non-tendered Cook finds his way onto a roster only as a minor-league contract guy, so the team should save the money and perhaps put it toward a less risky bullpen option. But I’m not a scout, I’m looking at the stats. The real questions are: (1) are there better options out on the market somewhere and (2) is Cook going to stay healthy AND effective?

My best estimate is that the team rolls the dice on the dicey Machi, lets Varvaro fly, and Cook is a bit of a wild card. The team’s internal scouts and talent evaluators are going to make judgement calls here, and either way they probably can’t go wrong on Machi and Varvaro. When you’re talking about $700k-$900k, arbitration doesn’t drag a player too much up from the league minimum, so risk is low.

Cook’s a different issue. The team acquired him from Oakland despite an awful run there, so they must see something in his work that makes them want to take the risk. Both his bad run in Boston and his good run in Pawtucket are small samples, so I have to imagine there’s something the team likes here, and they keep him, even though I’d personally be more skeptical. Get a guy like this on a minor-league deal, and save a million.

The No: Alexi Ogando

Alexi Ogando — Projected 2016 Salary: $2.4 million

Ogando’s 3.99 ERA belies just how bad his peripherals were last year. Alexi gave up 12 homers in about 65 innings (not good) and walked too many hitters (3.9 BB/9). In fact, FanGraphs’ FIP-based wins above replacement pegged him at -0.9 fWAR, which is only the second-worst career mark of any Red Sox pitcher … in the team’s history. DRA is slightly kinder, as Ogando’s DRA-based WARP put him at 0.1, or right around replacement level.

But whether’s he’s the FIP-centered disaster or the DRA-based replacement-level pitcher, it seems as if investing more money in Ogando isn’t the best option. It’s not like this was an exceptionally down season; his cFIP in each of the last three seasons has been over 100, meaning his true talent level is less than league-average by this metric. There’s little reason to invest money in a low-upside option in the bullpen when low-upside options are in no short supply. The difference between a Jonathan Aro and Ogando is probably only $2 million. He should be non-tendered as well.

Hrm.

So with my guesses on who gets non-tendered, paired with Matt Swartz’s projections, it looks like the Sox will have to drop about $8.5 million in arbitration salaries on four bullpen pieces … and Cook is a $1.5 million wild card, barring trades. Investing in this team’s bullpen is a necessary evil, and all three of Tazawa, Kelly, and Ross could very well be above-replacement options. They’re locks. From a context-free perspective, spending $10 million of five bullpen pieces is great! Look at all the money they’re saving!

However, with all these pieces ranging from uninspiring to shruggie-guy-emoticon, saving a couple million here and leaving Cook / Varvaro / Machi off the roster is less about saving the money, and more about freeing up roster spots that could go to higher-upside or lower-risk options from trade or free agency.

In the end, that’s what Boston’s bullpen arbitration decisions are all about. There are some no-brainers here, but Boston’s choices will be keeping around a good chunk of the existing bullpen at a discount price, or opening up cash and spots for some new faces.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): This is going to shock you, but the top play was the go-ahead grand slam off the bat of Xander Bogaerts (0.712). Remember when some idiot complained about him only hitting singles? What a moron. It’s also worth noting that a Very Good-Looking Person predicted that grand slam before it happened.

Bogaerts go-ahead grand slam in 5…..4…..3…..

— Matt Collins (@RedSox_Thoughts) September 22, 2015

Bottom Play (WPA): The late-season Red Sox are so good, they’re not satisfied with simply taking the victory and the top play by WPA. Not only did David Ortiz’s first-inning double play (-0.126) register as the worst play of the game, but Boston actually held claim to the bottom five plays. Tampa’s worst play came on Tim Beckham’s groundout to shortstop in the ninth (-0.051). The play immediately followed Rich Shaffer’s solo home run and was yet another example of Bogaerts’ improved defense. He did it all last night.

Key Moment: Besides the genius predicting Bogaerts’ go-ahead grand slam, and the grand slam itself, I’ll go to the top half of the eighth inning for the key moment. The Rays had just finished shelling Alexi Ogando (shocking, I know), leaving Jean Machi with a bases-loaded, one-out situation. Tampa had a one-run lead, and it looked very possible, even likely, that they’d break the game open. Instead, Machi gave up a sacrifice fly and a got a strikeout to exit the inning with just a two-run deficit. Bogaerts would hit the decisive home run in the next half-inning. That’s right, the Red Sox bullpen actually did a good thing!

Trends to Watch:  Bogaerts is good. Like, really good. He showed everything off last night. The grand slam was huge, of course, but he also had a double that likely would’ve been out if it wasn’t for the wind. On top of that, he made at least three plays with the glove that he would have had no shot at last year.

Mookie Betts is also pretty decent. He reached base four times, bumping him up to a .338 OBP and a nice 6.9 BB%.

Rounding out the exciting rookies, Eduardo Rodriguez was impressive tonight despite not having his best stuff. He was rocked in the first inning, and it would’ve been easy for him to implode. Instead, he buckled down and got through six solid if unspectacular innings. Pretty exciting night for a trio of exciting young players.

Coming Next: The Red Sox and Rays continue their series tonight with Henry Owens taking on Matt Moore. Just 13 more games left in the regular season.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): The Red Sox sent Alexei Ogando out to face Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki for the 10th inning. Guess how that went. The inning started with a leadoff triple from Donaldson ( 0.287). On first glance it looked like a home run, but replay showed it just barely missed leaving the park, and the play actually almost resulted in an out at third base. Donaldson would eventually score on an RBI single from Tulowitzki, and Ogando would allow three more runs in the frame.

Bottom Play (WPA): The winning Blue Jays actually had the bottom five plays, per WPA. Although it seems strange on the surface, it makes sense considering they had roughly 458 base runners in the first nine innings and scored just one run. The absolute bottom play for Toronto came in the sixth. After Henry Owens gave up a single to Tulowitzki, gave him second on a balk then third on a wild pitch, Jean Machi came in with runners on the corners and one out in a 1-1 game. While the sixth seems like quite the demotion for the former closer, it was actually a pretty huge situation and the team needed his ground ball-inducing abilities. He came through, getting Chris Colabello to ground into the 6-4-3 double play (-0.178).

The Red Sox’s bottom play came in the bottom of the ninth. David Ortiz drew a one-out walk, then was taken out of the game in favor of pinch runner Rusney Castillo. For some reason, Boston sent Castillo, and he was thrown out by a mile by Russell Martin (-0.097), giving the Red Sox a bases empty, two-out situation.

Key Moment: The key moment would have to be that top of the 10th inning. Surprisingly, the Red Sox bullpen was in the midst of a solid outing, with Machi, Noe Ramirez, Junichi Tazawa and Robbie Ross all doing the job earlier in the contest. Ogando actually could have gotten out of trouble in that inning, too. After intentionally walking Encarnacion, Toronto had runners on the corner with one out and a double play would’ve kept the game tied. Ogando did get the ground ball from Tulowitzki, but it found a hole. After that, there was a questionable balk call and a wild pitch that scored two runs before an at bat was completed and the game was essentially over. This bullpen, man.

Trends to Watch: This section has to start with Boston’s starter, Henry Owens. While the results were good, especially considering the lineup he was facing, there were still signs that he is not ready to be a full-time contributor just yet. Mainly, it’s the control that’s an issue, as he had a couple wild pitches and hit batsmen in the contest to go with his four walks.

Xander Bogaerts defense is so impressive. After years of questions regarding his ability to stick at the position long-term, the young shortstop has shown this year that he has the tools to stay there for a while. He made a few good plays last night that he wouldn’t have made at this time last year. The most encouraging this was there were all different kinds of plays, ranging to either direction, making strong throws and quickly starting double plays.

On the other side of that coin, Blake Swihart still has plenty of strides to make behind the plate. We knew he was raw back there, and the struggles aren’t overly surprising, but they’re still worth pointing out. There were a few wild pitches that a more experienced backstop would probably block, as well as a rushed throw that resulted in an error rather than an easy out.

Coming Next: The Red Sox finish out their series against the Blue Jays tonight as Joe Kelly looks to continue his great recent stretch against Drew Hutchison. They’ll be off on Thursday (go Pats!) before heading to Tampa to take on the Rays in a series beginning Friday night.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

This season hasn’t been kind to either the Red Sox or their fans. There have been many things that just flat-out suck: Hanley’s fielding, most of the pitching and Pedroia getting injured. None of that compares to the bombshell that dropped Tuesday morning: Don Orsillo will not return as the Red Sox’s play-by-play commentator in 2016. At first it looked mutual, with Orsillo’s contract ending and national broadcasts having interest in the commentator ever since his stint with TBS ended in 2011. Then the facts started to trickle down, as Chad Finn writes. Joseph Maar, VP of programming at NESN, was never a fan of Orsillo, and in 2014, Maar began a policy that had broadcasters – in this case, mainly Orsillo and Jerry Remy – take in-season breaks. While that sounds nice, the issue is that the broadcasters have to make up the week of work out of season, which seems strange considering the tough six-month schedule they endure on a yearly basis. Want to reach out to Maar and tell him that this is wrong? Too bad – he made his Twitter account private early this morning. It’s going to be a tough September, as the time we have with Orsillo as the voice we all know and love for Red Sox baseball slowly runs out.

August has brought a whirlwind of changes for the Sox, ranging from the delightful (JBJ hitting!) to the terrible (Orsillo’s departure) and even touching upon shocking, which was the case when the Red Sox stunned the baseball world by hiring Dave Dombrowski. With Ben Cherington soon to be out of the picture, the state of the 2016 Red Sox becomes murkier. Dombrowski will evaluate and consider players differently than Cherington. Very few things are bolted to the floor – David Ortiz as the perennial DH being one of them. Dombrowski did mention several players as the core of the future of the Red Sox, with Xander Bogaerts and Eduardo Rodriguez being part of it. However, knowing DD’s history in trades, it’s hard to think he wouldn’t make a trade if the right deal comes along. Scott Lauber and Ygritte say it best: you know nothing.

Quick Hits

If you say it enough, the team will actually do it. Hence Hanley Ramirez taking reps at first base before the game in Chicago on Tuesday night. He’s not unaware of his terrible fielding in left, despite what we all might say. As John Tomase writes, he seemed very supportive of the move, as he was quoted saying that it would make the team better. Good on ya, Han Ram.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a special talent, and the Red Sox want to keep it that way – so they’re going to skip his next start for rest. He’s already logged 140.2 innings combined at the Triple-A and MLB levels, and the Sox are looking to manage his workload. Jen McCaffrey also adds that Henry Owens is slowly approaching his limit as well, but Owens’ previous career-high in innings pitched is 159 innings, so there’s a bit more leeway there.

The Red Sox bullpen being a perpetual tire fire isn’t news, but the decisions surrounding how to use those burning tires are. Sean McAdam calls for Tazawa to be removed from the closer role entirely, handing it to Jean Machi in the short-term. After Sunday’s debacle, Tazawa simply looks unfit to close, but the Red Sox have few options beyond him. Jean Machi’s already there, sure, but why not try out Pat Light? With the postseason far out of reach, he’s worth a shot when rosters expand.

After this season, it might not amaze you that the relationship between spending and winning is weak. The thing is that it’s been that way for a long while, as Craig Edwards notes. The correlation between team spending and team wins has gradually gotten weaker as time has gone on. Success cannot be bought, and despite the massive differences in Opening Day payrolls, parity still exists in MLB.

Three Good Game Stories

Junichi Tazawa is now the most visible sign of a terrible bullpen, as his 9th inning implosion in Sunday’s game showed, writes Jason Mastrodonato.

A strong showing from a seemingly revamped Joe Kelly helped push the Red Sox past the White Sox on Monday, and Rob Bradford looks to find out what sparked the turnaround. It was probably his great stuff.

There’s a reason why Hanley needs to get out of left field, and Tuesday’s game was a prime example, said Brian MacPherson.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

If there are any mentions of Joe Kelly’s stuff or its quality in the recap tomorrow, know that it was added by the editor.

— Matt Collins (@RedSox_Thoughts) August 25, 2015

Even Jean Machi couldn’t blow this one. Break up the Red Sox

Top Play (WPA): No surprises here. The top play in this game was the three-run home run that Rusney Castillo blasted to center field (.283), putting the Red Sox up by two. It was yet another encouraging sign from the Cuban outfielder, who has been raking this month while getting consistent playing time.

Bottom Play (WPA): The bottom play came when the White Sox couldn’t finish off their comeback attempt off the immortal Jean Machi. After closing the gap to two, Alexei Ramirez came up with men on the corners and hit a fielder’s choice to third, scoring Avisail Garcia (-.116). Then, Carlos Sanchez hit a fly ball in foul territory, but there was enough room for Jackie Bradley to make the catch and finish end the game (-.098). If we’re being honest, the Machi deserved to blow that save.

Key Moment: Castillo’s home run in the second was probably the key moment if we’re being honest, but that’s boring. So instead, we’ll call Castillo’s other big hit the key moment. With the Red Sox still up by the same 3-1 margin in the 5th, Castillo ripped a two-run double that put Boston up by four. Of course, he ended up sliding past second base and was tagged out, ending the inning, but the damage was done. Given how poor the Red Sox bullpen is, every run counts, as we saw later in he game.

Trends to Watch: First and foremost: Castillo is out of control right now. We’re still dealing with a small sample, so it’s too early to pencil him in for strong production in 2016, but he’s looking the part. He’s raw and makes boneheaded plays, but we’re finally seeing why the Red Sox were willing to pay so much money for him last year.

Also on fire: Joe Kelly. He’s been spectacular over his last four starts, pitching to a 1.85 ERA in 24.1 innings. The strikeouts aren’t there, but that may be a good thing. He’s inducing ground balls, and mixing up his pitches much more often. I’ll need to see a lot more out of him to be confident in him as a starter moving forward, but this is certainly a good start. [Definitely Matt’s writing and not an editor’s note: Joe Kelly has great stuff.]

It’s not all good though. The bullpen is still a dumpster fire. Robbie Ross came on in the eighth and pitched very well recording two outs. That’s part of the problem, though. Ross should not be pitching in the eighth inning of close games. Then, Jean Machi – JEAN MACHI – came in for the save, and did his best to blow it. Boston held on to the lead, but this bullpen is still A Problem.

Coming Next: The Red Sox continue their series in Chicago tonight with Wade Miley taking on Jose Quintana. The three-game set ends on Wednesday before the Sox travel to New York to take on the red-hot Mets, where they’ll be forced to play by dumb/bad/terrible/unholy NL rules.

Photo by Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports Images