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	<title>Boston &#187; Joe Mauer</title>
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		<title>Roster Recap: A Guy Named Chase d&#8217;Arnaud</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/05/roster-recap-a-guy-named-chase-darnaud/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/05/roster-recap-a-guy-named-chase-darnaud/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Jan 2018 14:00:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matthew Kory]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chase d'Arnaud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dave Dombrowski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dustin Pedroia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fernando Abad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Mauer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Farrell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mookie Betts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pablo Sandoval]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xander Bogaerts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=32656</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[He was on the team, I swear.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What does it say about a player when pinch-hitter is listed second on a three item list of his defensive positions? What does it say about the same player who appeared in two games, and despite said list of defensive positions, never played the field? What does it say about a player when he was a member of three different organizations within the same calendar year, the least time of which came with the Boston Red Sox? What kind of impact can a player like that &#8212; we’ll call him “Chase d’Arnaud” &#8212; have? In this case, more impact than anyone could ever imagine, assuming nobody anywhere in New England possesses a functioning imagination.</p>
<p>“Imagine a…”</p>
<p>“Let me stop you right there.”</p>
<p>The Red Sox snagged d’Arnaud off waivers from the Atlanta Braves in the dead of night during a late April injury blizzard. Dustin Pedroia was having trouble with his knees, as was Pablo Sandoval who, it turned out, was also terrible. Brock Holt’s vertigo prevented him from helping out and Josh Rutledge was still in Triple-A recovering from a hamstring strain sustained while participating in ham-on-a-string exercises (unrelated) during Spring Training. All of a sudden, the Red Sox had no middle infielders they could play after Xander Bogaerts but, more importantly, they had no middle infielders they could not play. The Red Sox were all of a sudden a baseball team without this most important of commodities. Who was going to sit in the dugout, chat to nobody about things, and chew sunflower seeds?</p>
<p>Of course, the answer to their injury epidemic is obvious in retrospect: surgically remove the legs of every infielder on the roster and auction off the severed limbs for charity. Just think how one of Brock Holt’s legs would look in a plastic case adorned with a Red Sox logo up on your mantle? It’d be magnificent, and the Jimmy Fund would make a fortune. Strangely, that most clear of answers seemed to elude everyone, so, in lieu of that, the Red Sox went waiver wire dumpster diving to solve their problems. They came across some pretty sweet cardboard boxes, a few dead fish, Chase d’Arnaud, and bag of half-eaten cat crunchies.</p>
<p>You might not expect much of anyone acquired in such a manner, and certainly d’Arnaud was no different from those low expectations, but boy howdy he delivered on each and every low expectation. The Red Sox called on d’Arnaud during an early May game against the Twins. The Red Sox entered the ninth inning leading Minnesota 7-6, but the Red Sox quickly gained a small and precarious lead by scoring eight runs. After an infield single by Dustin Pedroia, manager John Farrell, looking down the barrel of a gun, turned to his best player.</p>
<p>“Get in there, d’Arnaud!” he probably didn’t ever shout.</p>
<p>“You got it, skip!” replied the ever-ready part-time pinch-hitter.</p>
<p>d’Arnaud took his place at first base and immediately began dancing dangerously off the bag. Twins pitcher Justin Haley threw over to first once, twice, three times, desperate to preserve the eight-run deficit for what he felt would be the Twins inevitable comeback during the bottom of the inning. But d’Arnaud’s wild dancing frustrated him. He threw over again and again and again and again, but each time d’Arnaud dove back just ahead of the tag. After Haley’s last throw, Twins first baseman Joe Mauer trotted over to Haley. “The kid’s just too good,” said Mauer. “Focus on the batter.”</p>
<p>“I can’t,” replied Haley. “I’m just too flummoxed. I’m going to have to throw a really bad pitch.”</p>
<p>“Well, uh, okay,” said Mauer, and handed Haley the ball. Haley’s next pitch was a meatball. Xander Bogaerts hit it for a triple, scoring Mookie Betts and d’Arnaud all the way from first, and extending the Red Sox lead to a comfortable 10 runs. The Red Sox were just able to hold on in the bottom of the inning. They won 17-6, all thanks to Chase d’Arnaud.</p>
<p>You might think that after such a performance the Red Sox might have started d’Arnaud, but they did not. Asked about it by reporters, manager John Farrell winked and grinned. “I like to keep my secret weapons where I can use them when I need them,” he said. Later that day against the Brewers, Farrell needed his secret once more. Trailing 6-1 in the top of the fifth inning, Farrell tried something radical. “This isn’t working,” he reportedly whispered to himself. “Think, John. Dammit, you’ve got to think!” With one out and the pitcher due up, it suddenly hit Farrell like a ton of bricks: d’Arnaud!</p>
<p>“Get in there, d’Arnaud!” he definitely didn’t ever say.</p>
<p>“You got it, skip!” replied the ever-ready part-time pinch-runner.</p>
<p>With d’Arnaud running up the steps, Farrell stopped him. “You’re going to need this,” he said, handing him a broom. “Was that supposed to be a bat?” d’Arnaud asked? “You guessed it,” chuckled Farrell. “I’m really not very good at this managing thing.” Thus inspired d’Arnaud stepped to the plate against possibly the best pitcher in the history of baseball, Wily Peralta.</p>
<p>Peralta’s first pitch was a 110 mph fastball on the corner. “Strike one!” shouted the umpire. His second pitch was a 120 mph fastball on the inside corner. “Strike two!” shouted the umpire. d’Arnaud stepped out of the box. He realized what he was up against. He knew how nobody had ever faced a more perilous situation in baseball, but he was determined. He cocked his bat and stood there watching as a 99 mph curveball draped itself around the plate. “Ball one,” said the umpire. Now d’Arnaud was ready. He stared out at Peralta who stared back, both knowing what was at stake, perhaps the most important fifth inning at-bat by non-rivals from different leagues in early May in baseball history.</p>
<p>Peralta reared back and fired. d’Arnaud took a mighty swing and hit a weak grounder up the middle. The second baseman fielded the ball, but his heart was heavy when he did, because he knew he could never catch d’Arnaud. Crossing the first base bag, d’Arnaud slowed and stopped before the enormity, the sheer gravity of what he’d done struck him. As his team mates raced from the dugout to mob him and the loudspeakers blared the theme to The Natural, d’Arnaud knelt gently in the grass, a single tear falling from his face. Somewhere, Robert Redford muttered, “No, that’s perfect,” as d’Arnaud was lifted and carried around the field by his teammates.</p>
<p>The next inning they took him out for Fernando Abad. That would be the last time d’Arnaud stepped on a playing field for the Boston Red Sox. Asked about his decision to release d’Arnaud, Team President Dave Dombrowski said, “When you love something, set it free.”</p>
<p>But I digress. On to his season recap!</p>
<h4>What Went Right</h4>
<p>He got an infield single in his only Red Sox at-bat.</p>
<h4>What Went Wrong</h4>
<p>Whatever.</p>
<h4>What To Expect</h4>
<p>Nothing.</p>
<p>Thanks for reading.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Jeff Hanisch &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Rebuilding the Red Sox: What Can You Do With $30 Million?</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/23/rebuilding-the-red-sox-what-can-you-do-with-30-million/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Nov 2015 14:46:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bryan Grosnick]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rebuilding the Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Davis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dave Dombrowski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Mauer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wei-Yin Chen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Greinke]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2826</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Red Sox have some money to burn this offseason. What's the smartest way for them to use it?]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Look, I’m not the Oracle of Delphi. I’m not even that octopus that picked Super Bowl winners. I’m just a guy with spreadsheets. Predicting things is incredibly hard, and everyone is bad at predictions. That having been said, I love all the senseless guessing and off-chance predicting that comes with the offseason. It’s almost as much fun as seeing what teams </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">actually</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;"> do.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In everything I read, in everything I hear, the Red Sox seem to come up as a team who would be willing and able to spend big money this offseason as they attempt to change course of the S.S. Fenway. And my goal, at least for today, is not to try and prognosticate what the team </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">will </span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;">do, but rather what they </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">can</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;"> do. It’s a small difference, but perhaps an important one.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">How much money do the Red Sox have, and what options does that give them?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">According to the Cot’s Contracts page for the Boston Red Sox, the team had a payroll at the start of 2015 of approximately $184 million. That’s the highest payroll the team has ever fielded, and not by a small amount. Currently, according to Cot’s, the team also has about $153 million committed in salary for the 2016 season, before arbitration raises.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">While I don’t believe the Sox’s payroll will hit the heights of the 2015 season, I do think the team will likely return to the top of the pack when it comes to total dollars spent, especially as new GM Dave Dombrowski is looking to make a sudden U-turn back to respectability. </span><a href="http://nesn.com/2015/10/dave-dombrowski-red-soxs-payroll-not-going-backwards-for-2016/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">He’s said that the team payroll is “not going backwards.”</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> My rough guess is $180 million in 2016, which is about a $5 million dip from the previous season, and leaves the team plenty of room to maneuver mid-season.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So … the Sox have about $153 million committed, and </span><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/10/20/rebuilding-the-red-sox-the-bullpen-arbitration-breakdown/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">my guesstimates</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> for who will stick in arbitration based on </span><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2016.html"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> (Tazawa, Kelly and Ross) run the bullpen bill up another $7 million. That leaves a grand total of $160 million (give or take a few bucks) committed, and leaves the Sox with about $20-30 million dollars to spend. Of course, my total payroll estimate could be conservative … there could be more cash available. Or everything we hear could be lies, and the team could scale back after the 2014-2015 offseason free agent fiascos. Who knows?</span></p>
<p><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">(Note: the team’s top three payroll earners for the next three seasons are Hanley Ramirez, Rick Porcello, and Pablo Sandoval. In 2016, they’ll earn approximately $60.4 million of the team’s projected $180 million payroll. One third of the payroll! 2015 WARP: -1.8! Whoops!)</span></i></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So, what could the team do with all that scratch?</span></p>
<p><b>Option 1: Sign Zack Greinke. Maybe.</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Greinke is, in my view, the best possible starting pitching option available on the free market … for the Boston Red Sox. I’m not convinced he’s a better starter than David Price over the next five years, but he’s right-handed (the team already has Ed, Henry, and Brian Johnson on staff), and I’m convinced he can adapt to Fenway Park due to the way he’s constantly made adjustments throughout his big-league career. Having said that, if you want to swap Price’s name for Greinke’s above, have at it.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Either name mentioned above is likely to command top dollar. Truthfully? I’m not sure that either player will settle for less than $25-$30 million per season. Both challenged for Cy Young awards this season and are still at or near their primes. Other teams will be looking to spend on pitching from New York to Los Angeles. Greinke has been paid $26 million in a single season before, and I doubt he’s looking to take a pay cut. David Price is two years younger and, arguably, better than Greinke.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This expensive option takes nearly every other cash-added option off the table, unless the Red Sox move salary some other way. While that’s an option, sure, keep in mind that the Red Sox’s big contracts are albatrosses, and would require the team to give up good talent to move them.</span></p>
<p><b>Option 2: Sign Multiple Lower-Tier Free Agents</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Instead of buying the $80 steak from the white-glove steakhouse, perhaps the Sox are in the market for a couple of really tasty entrees at the bistro. To find these guys, I’m looking at the lower end of the qualifying-offer list: guys like Wei-Yin Chen. The team could use some offense as well, so perhaps a Chris Davis or a Dexter Fowler might fit in here. And then, of course, there are the various and sundry players at even a lower level-your Doug Fisters and David Freeses, your Jerry Blevinses. Blevii? Whatever.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This is certainly an option as well, though I have a bit of concern that if the team inks an Orioles combo platter of Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen, the team will be on the hook for a similar amount of money as they might be to an ace like Greinke or Price. Instead of having one (hopefully) transcendent star, they’d have two good-but-not-great players, and perhaps the same amount of risk.</span></p>
<p><b>Option 3: Buy A “Bad” Contract</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Like the Sox, plenty of teams have contracts that they wish they could shed. With the free agent class looking like one of the best in years, I’m fairly certain that several teams would be over the moon to drop a pricey contract in the hopes that they could spend that money in a different area. Examples include the Padres’ pricey James Shields contract ($65 million over the next three seasons) or the Rockies’ pact with Carlos Gonzalez ($37 million over the next two seasons).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">There are several performers who have contracts that don’t exactly track with their recent performances &#8212; as mentioned before, the Red Sox have three of them themselves &#8212; but the idea of paying top dollar for players who aren’t performing up to high expectations could be a bit much for a team already on the hook for “dead money” over the next few years.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But … while I’m here, can I throw out an interesting possibility? I love the idea of the Sox making a play for the Twins’ Joe Mauer, provided that Minnesota would eat about half of his contract. The Twins were the team that added Park, and seemingly have a logjam at first base now. The Sox could certainly use another bat with OBP potential, and Mauer could ideally fill a number of roles (first base, DH, even right field and catching instructor) as he transitions away from a superstar role into a complementary one.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">(Of course, if Mauer is just replacement-level again in 2016, nearly any investment in him would be a bad one.)</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I’m not sure that taking on a bad contract fits inside the old Red Sox wheelhouse, where they typically added players on shorter contracts and gave up guaranteed money in the legendary Adrian Gonzalez / Carl Crawford deal. But Dombrowski hasn’t shied away from taking on money in his previous regimes. This is definitely an option in play.</span></p>
<p><b>Option 4: Swap Future Value for Present Value</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This is the type of thing that can get you fired in Toronto, but it is the hallmark of past Dombrowski teams. The Sox are positively loaded in the minor leagues, even after the Craig Kimbrel trade, and they have the unique ability to add major league talent &#8212; talent that could be expensive in terms of dollars, or much cheaper &#8212; to their roster. These are not deals that any team could make &#8212; but the Sox are in a position all teams wish they could at least consider: using talent instead of money to add stars.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If any player at all is on the market, the Red Sox are in play. If the Mets are sick of Matt Harvey’s attitude, the Red Sox are one of the few teams that could pay the freight to move him to Boston. He could be the new Massachusetts Bureau Chief. The same is true with Yasiel Puig in Los Angeles. These are players who won’t come cheap, but the Sox have the prospect depth to be able to make these deals … if that’s what they decide they want. This way, they could acquire impactful talent at a fraction of the cost a top-tier free agent would bring in.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Is this kind of move a good idea? Of course, that’s almost impossible to say up front. It has certainly worked for some teams &#8212; don’t you think that the Red Sox would have loved to have traded for Josh Donaldson instead of signing Pablo Sandoval? At the same time, not all of these types of trades work out &#8212; think the Padres and their acquisition of Wil Myers, which has been a mixed bag to date.</span></p>
<p><b>Option 5: Some Combination of No. 2 &#8211; No. 4 Above</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In the end, I think this is the team’s most likely option. While I would absolutely love to see the Sox go out and get Zack Greinke or Jason Heyward, logic dictates that the team will use Dombrowski’s trading acumen and avoid linking themselves to one huge contract when they already have so many on the books. Especially with the free agent market a bit top-loaded, I could easily see the Sox being aggressive in the trade market to bring in one or two talented mid-tier players (think 2-4 WARP types), before reloading in the middle-to-bottom tier of free agency.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In today’s baseball economy, $30 million is hardly a fortune. The Twins probably have at least that much to spend this season. The Twins! The Red Sox could commit all of that to a single player, or they could leverage a creative trading GM, spend some of their prospect currency, and make that money fill more holes than just one.</span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400;">The real takeaway here is that, unlike many teams, who are locked into a roster core and/or may not have the resources that the Sox do, all of these options are on the table. Other teams looking to rebuild may find themselves with some money to spend, but without the prospect resources, or the flexibility, to improve in other ways. No matter what ends up happening, you can’t say that the Red Sox don’t have choices during this critical offseason.</span></strong></p>
<p><em>Photo by Peter Aiken/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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