It’s now been three days since the Red Sox lost the series we all expected them to lose, and we’ve all had some time to reminisce on what went right, what went wrong, and that Rafael Devers inside-the-park home run. Brett Cowett summed up the ALDS pretty thoroughly, so we won’t go there again, and if you really want to find more obituaries, I’m sure Dan Shaughnessy wrote a reasonable, not-at-all-incendiary one that you can find somewhere. So let’s talk about what comes next.

There are seasons that require overhauls and seasons that require tinkering – this season falls under the latter.

On the surface, this Red Sox team seems pretty set. They have one of the more enviable rosters in the league, full of young stars on affordable contracts. They have all the money in the world and from all accounts aren’t going to pay the luxury tax any mind when it comes to crafting an offseason approach. They won 93 games for the second straight year and have reason to believe that trotting out the exact same roster next year would net them even more than that. There are seasons that require overhauls and seasons that require tinkering – this season falls under the latter.

With that said, the Red Sox certainly have some question marks. An argument can – and probably will – be made about about how significant those question marks are, but they’re still question marks nonetheless. The fact of the matter is that this is a young, talented team that’s been significantly overwhelmed in the first round of the playoffs for two straight years. While I personally feel that we’re not there quite yet, an underwhelming ALDS appearance is going to stop being good enough pretty soon. It’s the double-edged sword of playing in Boston – you’re going to get your chances to play on a winning team, but first-round exits can’t be the status quo for long. So what are the biggest questions for this team, in this window?

John Farrell

This will more than likely be the first issue the team addresses, as people seem to expect a decision about his fate as early as the end of this week. Last year, Dombrowski came out almost immediately after the team’s playoff exit and reaffirmed that Farrell was the guy, so there’s no reason to think the team will dilly-dally with a decision this time around.

The decision with Farrell, in my opinion, isn’t nearly as cut-and-dry as people want to make it out to be. He’s not the reason they’re not winning World Series titles. He’s a capable manager and does seem to generally have the support of the clubhouse – or at least its more vocal leaders. Bobby Valentine found out what happens when Dustin Pedroia wants you fired, and Pedroia’s post-game quotes about Farrell were generally supportive.

On the other hand, Deven Marrero started a playoff game and Brandon Workman had an at-bat in the 2013 World Series. If you want to see what another manager brings to the table, I don’t blame you.

Hanley Ramirez 

My guess is that his ALDS performance probably helped him regain some trust, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if his roster security isn’t set in stone. He’s not a first baseman; you know that, I know that, and the Red Sox know that. He deserves kudos for giving it more of a shot than he gave left field, but it’s just not a feasible fit going forward. His .253 TAv was the worst of his career, as was his .242 batting average. His wOBA, wRC+ and ISO all cratered as well. He’s owed 22 million dollars next season, which makes him especially difficult to trade. The best Red Sox lineup probably doesn’t include him anymore. Maybe he has a bounce-back year next season – people thought he was cooked after his abysmal 2015 campaign – but the shoulder issues keep cropping up. The Red Sox can’t afford to waste a power position like DH or 1B on someone who can no longer hit for power, which brings me to…

First Base

This is what I view as the most interesting on-field dilemma the Red Sox have to face this offseason. The pragmatic approach says resign Mitch Moreland, and quite honestly, I don’t hate it. Moreland was excellent when healthy this year, and could be retained for a fraction of what the other options represent. But making the cost-efficient, practical signing is to Dave Dombrowksi what using Craig Kimbrel in non-traditional save situations is to John Farrell – it’s just not going to happen. There are dingers to be bought, and Dave is surely not interested in hearing about how the Red Sox are the worst power-hitting team in the league all next summer. Here’s your obligatory Giancarlo Stanton mention, because you just might as well get used to it now. Eric Hosmer will be attached to the team’s hip, and Joey Votto presents an intriguing option in the sense that he is 1. a good first baseman and 2. that’s it. Good first basemen, regardless of feasibility, will be linked to the Red Sox all winter, solely because Dave Dombrowski runs this team and has a few young, talented outfielders to burn. The team clearly needs some power hitting, and where or who it comes from figures to be the team’s biggest winter storyline.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

The Red Sox are in a great position headed into the 2017 season with only two areas of concern to address–the bullpen and replacing David Ortiz. With the latter a near impossibility they will look to add the best bat they can and may have to tap into the farm to do it. The bullpen is where it gets trickier; do they try and resign their own guys in Brad Ziegler and Koji Uehara or do they look for something better? If they do it could cost them some serious cash, so another trade may be more palatable, much to prospect-huggers’ dismay. After all what are prospects for if not to improve the big league club?

How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz’s production?: 

My first look at the issue of replacing Ortiz brought me to the conclusion that of all the free agent bats on the market, Edwin Encarnacion makes the most sense. While I stand by this remark, recent comments by Dave Dombrowski make it seem like he is skeptical about replacing Ortiz with an aging option that provides him limited flexibility and requires a massive financial commitment. Encarnacion has been talked about as the heir apparent to Ortiz for much of the year and his prowess vs. RHP and ability to closely replicate Ortiz’s production make him very tempting.  His issues are his age and a spike in strikeout rate vs. RHP, which could add up to some really bad years on a 4-5 year contract.

All of this leads me to believe that the best course of action is to replace Ortiz’s bat via trade—the Red Sox should go and get Joey Votto. As a left-handed generational talent, Votto provides the most perfect offensive solution that the Red Sox could imagine to replace Ortiz. Last season, Votto batted .330 with 24 home runs vs. RHP with an OPS of 1.033, while Ortiz managed a slightly more productive .315, 33 home runs and an OPS of 1.075.  These numbers are really close.  Votto has also hit lefties far better than Ortiz over the entirety of his career and has the profile of a hitter that will age very well.  The Reds are in a position where they could cash in with a package of prospects headlined by Rafael Devers, while the Red Sox can afford eat the majority of Votto’s massive contract.     

How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?:

Mark Melancon? No thanks, been there done that.  Aroldis Chapman? If Dave was concerned in the off-season last year about off the field issues then why would this year be any different?  Kenley Jansen? Why on earth would the Dodgers let him go when they have the money to give him a huge deal? All of this leads me to believe the best place for the Red Sox to get another impact arm is via trade with the Miami Marlins.  The Marlins have two talented arms at the back of their bullpen in A.J. Ramos and Kyle Barraclough, which opens up a trade to be made.  

After the loss of Jose Fernandez the Marlins need another starter to go along with their talented starting lineup.  I propose the Red Sox trade Clay Buchholz, Sam Travis, and Henry Owens for Barraclough and Tom Koehler. Barraclough has back-of-the-bullpen stuff having struck out 113 batters over 72.2 IP last year. He is also just 26 years old and won’t be a free agent until 2022. The Marlins should be plenty enticed by good Buchholz in their home park, a talented young fly ball pitcher in Owens, and a potential first-division regular Sam Travis.  

A minor signing of Brett Cecil will also bolster the bullpen from the left side.

Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?: 

Does Tom Koehler count? Koehler provides some much-needed depth to replace Buchholz, albeit with a lower ceiling and cost. The Red Sox are pretty set at this position and if they make any moves expect it to be for additional depth.  Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, and Wright are locked in as the starting five if Buchholz is dealt and that rotation is good enough to win the division again. Brian Johnson should be ready to contribute to the big league club provided his health issues are behind him. The development of Michael Kopech has also gone very well to this point and it wouldn’t be very surprising to see him in Portland early next season with a chance to contribute in some capacity down the stretch.   

Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?:  

To get Votto, even with taking on most of the money, they will need to pony up some big chips.  Rafael Devers makes the most sense as the best Red Sox positional prospect who has yet to see any time with the big league club. Cincinnati is a power hitter’s paradise and should play well for Devers’ left handed power swing. Although improved defensively at third, Devers could someday move to first base and even if he doesn’t, Eugenio Suarez’s presence will not stop a club like the Reds from acquiring a talent like him. The Red Sox can afford to deal Devers because while third base represents the biggest weakness of the club at the big league level the trio of Yoan Moncada, Bobby Dalbec, and Devers represents the biggest strength at the minor league level.  

Unfortunately, Devers will not be going alone and will be joined by Maurico Dubon and Roniel Raudes. Dubon has played well enough recently to be in the conversation to replace Zack Cozart after his contract expires at the end of 2017.  He is also more than capable of filling as super utility role with the club.  Raudes provides yet another arm to add to their stable of talented young starters. This package may be a little light for Votto as currently constituted and it may take more to get him. The Red Sox do have the ability to eat his entire contract if need be which makes this more attractive to the Reds.

Miscellaneous Thoughts: 

Biggest Acquisition: Joey Votto
Biggest Departure: Rafael Devers/Clay Buchholz
Biggest Surprise: Biggest free agent grab is Brett Cecil!

2017 Opening Day Roster Projection

Photo by Charles LeClaire/USA Today Sports Images

We’ll start by saying what should be obvious. Just as the Red Sox didn’t replace Ted Williams, and Simon and Garfunkel didn’t replace Simon (“Simon and Garfunkel Without Simon!”), the Red Sox won’t replace David Ortiz. Ortiz is the very definition of irreplaceable. He is the Red Sox, and will be at least through the 2016 season. But come 2017 Ortiz will be out of baseball and the Red Sox will need someone who can hit in the middle of their lineup.

While Ortiz himself is irreplaceable, replacing his production is no small task either. First, it might be helpful to look at what Ortiz has done over the last few seasons, to know what it is the Red Sox will need to find on the field. Since 2011 (picked by the way for no particularly good reason), Ortiz has hit .292/.382/.556. That’s an OPS+ of 152. Guess how many players had an OPS+ of 150 since 2011. Seven is the answer. Seven guys. In all of baseball. Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Ortiz, Jose Bautista, Paul Goldschmidt, and Giancarlo Stanton. That’s a small list and it should give you an idea of what a force Ortiz has been for the Red Sox. So how do you replace that?

Well, you don’t, but you still have to try. There are a couple routes to go. First, you do it by assembling a stronger roster. No holes. Not everyone needs to be a star, but everybody needs to be at least league average. Last season, for example, the Red Sox were not a particularly strong defensive team. Improving the team defense lessens the loss of Ortiz. The same could be said of the bullpen. So better relievers lessen the loss of Ortiz. But that’s not really what you were looking for. You were probably looking for a big bat the Red Sox can get that will jump into the team’s lineup and crush opposing pitching. We’ll all take his hand and cross the street and we’ll barely even need to look over our shoulder at Ortiz as he heads down a different road on his way home.

So fine. Here: Joey Votto.

Well, you asked. Votto was an MVP candidate this past season following a season filled with injury and disappointment. But now he’s back! Or so the thinking goes. Thing is, Votto is owed $180 million over the next eight seasons, and it’s not like he’s 28 now. He’ll be 32 next season. He might be worth it. He’s pretty great. He put up a .459 OBP in almost 700 plate appearances this season! He’d fit right in at first base and then DH could become a rotating position for guys who need days off from the field, kind of like it’s used on most other teams. But that’s a pretty big contract to take on. That’s probably what the sensible folks call over-correcting. Lose Ortiz, grab the biggest, most expensive guy and bear hug him for the next decade. It could work. But it could really not. And if it doesn’t that’s a huge problem, arguably bigger than losing Ortiz, as it would handcuff the team for a long time. Still though. Joey Votto. He’s pretty good.

But let’s move on because Votto isn’t very likely. If we’re talking likely, we’re probably talking Hanley Ramirez. He’s likely because he’s already signed through 2018 with a vesting option. He’d fit in great at DH because he’s already essentially a DH right now. The problem is (there’s always a problem or this wouldn’t be any fun) he didn’t hit. Well, okay, two problems. He didn’t hit in 2015 but even if he does hit in 2016, Ortiz isn’t retiring now. He’s retiring next year. That means Ramirez needs to play defense for a whole season! Some people are starting to come around on Ramirez as a first baseman who moves to DH in 2017, but those people are forgetting just how horrible Ramirez was in left field. Maybe he can play first, I don’t know. First base is different than left field. If he can, well, there’s your easy solution. Maybe not the best, but  the easiest. If he can’t — and there’s a whole season’s worth of evidence saying he can’t learn a new defensive position — here we are again with season-long sadness! Only now we don’t have a first baseman beyond Travis Shaw. Shaw is nice and all, but here’s what he hit last season in Triple-A: .249/.318/.3you don’t need to see anymore because yuck. I hope you can see the downside of this plan by now.

Davis, like Votto, is a $200 million solution to what is at present a $16 million problem.

So let’s think longer term, but not Joey Votto longer term, i.e. the longest term. If we’re just looking to replace Ortiz the DH, there’s any number of players they could sign. Jose Bautista will be a free agent and will be 36 by then. Carlos Beltran will be 704 years old, but presumably still hitting, once his robotic knees have warmed up in mid-June. There will be options is the point. Some good, older players on the downside of their careers will be on the market and the Red Sox should be able to get a slightly above average bat for a season or two commitment.

The 2017 free agent class is pretty weak, though. Perhaps the Red Sox need to bring in a bat now, like Chris Davis. Davis could slot into the middle of the lineup this season, and ease the transition into an Ortiz-less existence. Like Votto though, that’s a $200 million solution to what is at present a $16 million problem. That’s not to say it’s the wrong solution, because that’s just how good David Ortiz was. Getting the best hitter on the free agent market will cost $200+ million and even that won’t be enough to replace him.

Maybe by 2017 a stopgap won’t be necessary because the team will be able to fill the vacancy from within. Sam Travis seems to be the logical choice for this particular kind of wishcasting, although he’s a first baseman, so again, you’re left looking to fill the DH slot (though that would be true of Votto as well). Rafael Devers is another young player rocketing up through the system. His power is legitimate and he’s considered one of the Red Sox best prospects. If he makes it to the majors before Dave Dombrowski can trade him we might be in for a treat. The same goes for Yoan Moncada, likely a third baseman or outfielder down the line, but first base is a possibility as well. It’s debatable whether or not Moncada or Devers will be ready to step into a full time position by 2017. Likely not by the beginning of the season anyway, at least as things stand now.

So that leaves us with the big guys (Votto, Davis), and the little guys (Travis), and the over-the-hill guys (Bautista, etc). The Red Sox do not lack options, at least. And that’s good. Because the day Ortiz says good-bye is rapidly approaching.

Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports Images