Given the cost of acquiring Pomeranz and how good this team is offensively, it’s tempting to believe this means the Red Sox should be done. They now have a reasonable top-four in their rotation, and might even go five deep if the Eduardo Rodriguez we saw in New York is the E-Rod we’ll get moving forward. Their offense is crazy good. Their bullpen is good enough, and could be a genuine plus if a few guys can stay healthy at once. The Red Sox’s current playoff odds stand at 79.9%, and we have every reason to believe this is a team that can make it to October, and might be able to play deep into that month.

I still think they should trade for Julio Teheran.

Teheran will cost a lot to acquire. He’s going to cost way more than just one of the remaining Big Three prospects, and he should. Teheran is 25 years old, is signed affordably through 2019 with an option for 2020 and, per PWARP, has had the 12th-best season of any starter this year (one spot ahead of Pomeranz, interestingly enough). He may not be an ace in the Chris Sale or Jose Fernandez sense, but he’s a really good, really young pitcher, and he’s probably available.

Despite the cost it will probably take to get him, there are a bunch of reasons Teheran is pretty much the perfect fit for this team right now. While the Red Sox shouldn’t completely mortgage their future to acquire him, he’d go a long way toward addressing the organization’s biggest deficiency. Before you yell at me, let’s review:

Teheran is good

I alluded to this above, but Teheran, by any objective measure, is really good. He’s sporting a 2.96 ERA, 3.03 DRA, 22.8 K%, 5.3 BB% and 40.2 GB% in 118.2 innings this season. He’s a former top prospect who was also pretty good in 2013 and really good in 2014. He was meh last year, which seems to be the primary reason people are worried about acquiring him. But he has the pedigree, past performance and age of a pitcher who should be capable of throwing near the top of a rotation for many years. Those guys are hard to come by.

The one legit gripe I see with Teheran is that he’s a fly-ball pitcher who’s already surrendering 1.21 HR/9 in Atlanta. That’s almost certainly going to go up in Fenway. My counter to this: show me all the good, young available pitchers on the market right now. They don’t exist. Just because Teheran isn’t perfect doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be a marked improvement over most arms in the Red Sox system. Maybe he’s more of a no. 3 in the AL than a no. 2, but Teheran isn’t going to go from an All-Star in Atlanta to a scrub in Boston.

Teheran is cheap and cost-controlled

Back when the Braves were good, they locked up a significant portion of their core to team-friendly contract extensions. That didn’t stop them from shipping away Craig Kimbrel or Andrelton Simmons, and it shouldn’t stop them from trading Teheran, who signed a six-year, $32.4 million extension with the Braves before the 2014 season. He’s also got an affordable option for 2020, meaning the Red Sox could acquire Teheran’s age-25-through-age-30 seasons, which is pretty much exactly when you want to have a pitcher in your service. Teheran has also proven capable of staying on the mound and eating innings, averaging 202.1 IP over the past three years.

The best part about the Pomeranz deal, as I wrote in my TA at the mothersite, is that he’s under control for two more seasons beyond this one. That’s really important, because the Red Sox are looking at a solid three-to-four year window in which they should be competing for championships. Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. won’t be expensive yet during this window. David Price, Rick Porcello, Pomeranz, Kimbrel and Carson Smith should all be reasonable contributors during this time. Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi are poised to join that core by around this time next season. Plus, the Red Sox have solid complimentary players in Steven Wright, Blake Swihart, Hanley Ramirez, Brock Holt, Travis Shaw and Dustin Pedroia under control, too.

The Red Sox have offense, they have a few good starters and they have back-end bullpen arms. But in adding Teheran, they could build out a good, young rotation that will perfectly compliment their impressive offensive core for the next handful of seasons. That’s important for two reasons, the first of which is:

The Red Sox stink at developing starting pitching

I covered this in depth in my TA, but to rehash: the Red Sox can’t develop starters! Matt Barnes has turned into a solid reliever, but he can’t start. Brandon Workman flopped in the rotation. Henry Owens’s control has taken a step back when it already needed to take two steps forward. Brian Johnson’s had trouble staying on the mound. Allen Webster flopped. Rubby De La Rosa stunk. Felix Doubront was only good for half a season. Michael Bowden busted. Trey Ball is headed in that direction. The Red Sox are good at a lot of things as an organization, but bringing along home-grown starters isn’t one of them.

There’s still time for Owens and Johnson. Maybe one of them figures it out and becomes a back-end arm. There’s value in that, but Teheran figures to bring a whole lot more to the table; better performance and more certainty. When you can’t develop pitching, you need to either trade for it or sign it. Which brings us to the next point …

There are almost no good starters on the market

The 2017 class of free-agent starters is a god damn tire fire. You’re looking at guys like Brett Anderson, Rich Hill, C.J. Wilson, Ivan Nova, Jeremy Hellickson and Doug Fister at the top of the class. There’s no one even close to Teheran available.

In terms of targeting a different arm than Teheran to trade for, ok. That’s reasonable. But who’s out there? Sale and Fernandez shouldn’t be available. The A’s have no reason to sell low on Sonny Gray, nor the Rays on Chris Archer (who might not even be as good as Teheran). Zack Greinke’s contract would be pretty tough to swallow if the D-Backs would even be willing to move him. The Indians are in the thick of things and have no reason to sell Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar or Carlos Carrasco.  It’s not a buyer’s market.

The Red Sox have the prospect depth

The final point is the most painful one, because I, like the rest of you, like to hug my prospects close and tuck them in at night. But the point of amassing prospects isn’t to ensure that all of them reach the big-league club; it’s to use them in any way that can contribute to the on-field product. Often times that means making room for them on the MLB roster, but it can also mean trading them to acquire talent that fits better.

Dave Dombrowski clearly knows this, having traded away three top-100 prospects in Espinoza, Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra for Pomeranz and Kimbrel. Losing that type of talent hurts, but the crazy thing about Boston’s farm system is they still have the pieces needed to get Teheran, or at the very last to try.

Here’s where it gets tricky; I’m 100% sure I would not move Moncada for Teheran, and I’m 90% sure I wouldn’t move Benintendi for him either. If the Braves insist on one of those two to start the package — a demand they’d be well within their right to make — I have no problem with the Red Sox holding serve and looking for a cheaper upgrade or praying E-Rod turns it around.  

But I don’t think it’s crazy to think the Red Sox could start a package with Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez and build from there. Consider the Shelby Miller trade from earlier this season. The Braves received a top-25 prospect in Dansby Swanson, a reasonable everyday player in Ender Inciarte and a top-100 arm in Aaron Blair for Miller, who pitched much better than Teheran did last year but who doesn’t come with Teheran’s insanely team-friendly contract. 

Odds are the Braves would be looking for something similar for Teheran, and I think the Red Sox can match. Devers would be Swanson in this case, a mid-minors top-25 bat with impact potential. E-Rod could take the place of Inciarte as a young, MLB-ready piece right now. And Henry Owens could serve here as Aaron Blair, giving the Braves another young arm to try and groom (seriously, they love young arms).

Maybe the Red Sox also throw in a Mauricio Dubon (sorry Collins) or a Pat Light or a Travis Lakins. If that’s what it takes to get Teheran while holding onto Moncada and Benintendi, so be it.

The Red Sox have the opportunity to make a very competitive offer for Teheran without gutting the core pieces that should contribute to their future.

The Braves could decide such a package isn’t enough. Maybe another pitching-needy team like the Blue Jays or Rangers or Dodgers will come knocking and blow the Braves away with a bevvy of young talent. Maybe Atlanta will decide they want to hold on to Teheran as they rebuild, even though they’re probably at least two years away from contention. If this is the case, so be it.

But the Red Sox have the opportunity to make a very competitive offer without gutting the core pieces that should contribute to their future. At the very least, it’s an opportunity they should explore. A rotation of Price, Teheran, Wright, Pomeranz and Porcello wouldn’t just be respectable; it would be objectively good. And it could be good for the next several seasons while leaving the Red Sox with enough money to go get another arm should a starter go down with injury or underperform.

Pairing that type of a rotation with the Red Sox’s young, offensive core will give them the type of young, cost-controlled, high-upside team every fan dreams of rooting for. And while Boston’s minor league depth will suffer as a result, they’d still have the pieces to make marginal upgrades thanks to players like Sam Travis, Michael Kopech, Jason Groome and others. The point of a good farm system isn’t to win offseason org rankings; it’s to help the big-league squad win.

Teheran is not a “true ace,” is not the best fit for Fenway Park and would cost a fortune in talent. He’s also good, young, has upside remaining and can provide the Red Sox the one thing they need and can’t develop on their own; quality starting pitching. It would be a risky move for Boston, but nothing ventured, nothing gained.

When you have a young core this good, it’s time to venture.

Photo by Jason Getz/USA Today Sports Images

There’s been a bit of a notion as of late that the Red Sox are a doomed team beyond repair. It’s easy to feel that way after a rough June, but at the end of the day this team is 42-36, tied for second place in the AL East and for first in the Wild Card hunt. They are competitive, and while they have some work to do when it comes to roster construction, they also have a roster that oozes with talent at the top.

With all this understood, the BP Boston staff was picked to identify one area the Red Sox can and should improve in the coming weeks. The idea here isn’t to find the best-case solution — no trades for Jose Fernandez will follow — but rather to find the move that hits the sweet spot between improving the 2016 team, improving the team core and not mortgaging the future. Indeed, instead of asking “what will help the Red Sox most,” we’re more asking “what’s the one smartest move the Red Sox can make,” or “what’s the one area the team should focus on?”

Our answers are as follow:

Trade for Rich Hill
Pitching is hard – just ask any Red Sox starter. The pitching staff has had a month they’d like to forget, and right now, the Sox have roughly two starters that you know what you’ll be getting in every start. Thing is, the Red Sox don’t need another ace, but they do need a competent, mid-rotation pitcher. The A’s have Rich Hill. He checks off every box on the Good Pitcher Checklist – strikeouts, grounders, decent-but-not-stellar peripherals – and he shouldn’t cost you any of the Moncada/Benintendi/Devers/Espinoza prospects. Let David Price sort himself out, have Steven Wright keep doing whatever it is he’s doing, and enjoy the Rick Porcello renaissance. Add Hill to that mix, and you’ve got a rotation again. – Brett Cowett

Trade for Sean Doolittle
I’m just going to come right out and say it: I’m writing about the need for Boston to improve their group of left-handed relievers. I know, they’d be better served to shore up the rotation and get something slightly better than a warm body to play left field, and I have little doubt they’ll go down that route. They also need some help in the bullpen, and Sean Doolittle kills two birds with one stone. The back-end of the relief corps isn’t a disaster — Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa are still quite good, just prone to blow-up outings — but it could use some help. The left-handed duo of Tommy Layne isn’t a disaster, but it could use some help. Doolittle gives them a lefty who is just a couple years removed from being one of the elite relievers in the game, who is also pitching extremely well in his return season. Even better, he’s locked up to a team-friendly deal through 2020, making this a long-term fix. Obviously, they shouldn’t empty the farm system to fix this area with the other issues on the roster, but if the price is right, Doolittle would make a huge impact on this Red Sox team. – Matt Collins

In terms of selling, the situation for the Red Sox is dire. This team was built to win, and had the prospects and money to afford top-tier starters when the deadline came calling. Since the whole winning thing isn’t happening, Ben Cherington’s best course of action is see who has interest in any one of the guys whose contracts are up at the end of the season. Unfortunately, most of them are scuffling. His hands are effectively tied.

But what if the Red Sox decided to become buyers anyway? Obviously they wouldn’t go for rentals, but what if the Sox looked for players who will still be under contract for the next season or longer? This line of thinking isn’t too outlandish when you look at the resources the organization still has.

Their impressive collection of prospects is still intact. Guys like Deven Marrero and Garin Cecchini are effectively blocked at the major league level, and the Red Sox have no reason to start them over the players blocking them. There are even guys deeper in the system, like Carlos Asuaje, who are likely to be beaten out by better, younger players at the same position, such as Yoan Moncada. The trade chips are there.

They’ll have some money to work with after the season ends. Contracts will expire – most notably Mike Napoli’s, if he’s not traded – and who knows if the front office will try to trade a big contract for salary relief. B-Ref projects Boston’s salary in 2016 for just under $160 million, and that includes all potential contract options being picked up – which is essentially $23 million for another year of Buchholz and Ortiz. You could fit an entire big contract in the gap between that and the luxury tax threshold, should the Sox care to stay under it.

Having taken inventory on Boston’s resources, the discussion comes down to potential targets. Two young pitchers who should get more attention than they do are Tyson Ross of the Padres and the Braves’ Julio Teheran.

Ross isn’t even eligible for arbitration until 2016, and the Padres have been listening to overtures concerning his availability. While he boasts a 3.45 ERA, Ross has been rolling with a 2.75 FIP despite a high opposing BABIP and a BB/9 in the fours. I don’t know about you, but any pitcher who can strike out nine or more per 9 IP with a ground ball rate over 55% gets me salivating.

Teheran doesn’t exactly seem like a big candidate to be traded, but the Braves are acting like he’s still available. He’s had a rough year so far, but apart from his most recent start against the Orioles, he’s looked much better in July. Teheran’s contract isn’t even his rookie deal anymore – the Braves signed him to a six-year, $32 million contract. That means no arbitration, and the most expensive he’ll be is $11 million in 2019. Young, relatively inexpensive pitchers are usually worth a gamble.

The Red Sox don’t have to sit on their hands and wait for someone to offer a bucket of Dubble Bubble for either Napoli or Alejandro De Aza.

Sure, there are other options out there, like Carlos Carrasco and even Aroldis Chapman. However, the point is that there are options. The Red Sox don’t have to sit on their hands and wait for someone to offer a bucket of Dubble Bubble for either Napoli or Alejandro De Aza. They can go both ways. Cherington can rid the team of expiring contracts while still reeling in a pitcher who is under contract for 2016 or longer. It’ll be a step in the right direction, and could jump-start the offseason retooling period that is expected to happen.

The Rangers just presented a good example of this. Their acquisition of Cole Hamels wasn’t solely for 2015 – it was so they could pair him with Yu Darvish and have a killer starting pitcher duo in 2016. Texas can still sell as well, since Yovani Gallardo seems like a prime candidate to be shipped off to a team such as the Giants. The Red Sox can do this. It’s not unheard of. This type of management at the deadline isn’t crazy.

The trade of Shane Victorino was a good first step. While Josh Rutledge shouldn’t be the answer to anything except “Who did the Red Sox get back in that trade?” it gave Rusney Castillo two months to get acclimated to the majors. Now’s the time when the hard choices have to be made. The Red Sox have until this afternoon to decide whether to try and get a pitcher they desire, or be content with only selling what little they have. They have the ability and the resources to get what they need for 2016 now. The Red Sox have everything to gain from buying and selling at the same time.

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