We finally got through a full calendar year of Dave Dombrowski running the Red Sox. By most accounts, it’s been a successful arrival for him. The Sox made the playoffs, the outfield is amazing, and there’s a lot to look forward to. That being said, I don’t think this offseason is going to be as exciting and surprising as the last couple have been. The Red Sox have very few holes, and they’re obvious: a flexible bat to help make up for the loss of David Ortiz’s production, and a solid reliever or two. It’s not going to be an exciting winter, because the Red Sox are not going to sign a top-tier starter or two third basemen. Instead, they should really look into what they already have, invest in the youth on the team and bet on a few guys coming back from lackluster years.

How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz’s production?

The most obvious and most expensive solution here is Edwin Encarnacion. He can still crank out homers like it’s going out of style and play first base adequately, so Hanley Ramirez can take a breather. Problem solved, right? Not really. Encarnacion will be 34 by the time Opening Day rolls around, and he reportedly wants something in the neighborhood of a five-year, $125 million contract. Another big contract would kill whatever payroll flexibility the Sox have, and that can’t seem attractive to a team that doesn’t need offense that badly.

The two guys that should garner interest from the Red Sox are Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday. Neither of them should see the field that much, and if they do, it’ll be masked by Fenway’s left field. Beltran is obviously the safer of the two, and he’s a switch-hitter so you don’t have to stack up on right-handed batters every game. Holliday would be cheaper, but he’s riskier, seeing as he’s only played 183 games over the last two years, and saw his plate discipline erode last year. Still, it’s worth seeing if he’s got anything left in the tank. I do think the Sox get Beltran on a two-year deal, and they’ll explore the trade market, but not make a big move.

This is probably hopeful thinking, but seeing as the Red Sox were far and away the best offense in the American League in 2016, I think they’ve afforded a sizable margin of error to let their young guys and potential rebounds try and make up the rest of the production. A full year of Andrew Benintendi should be fun, and getting anything out of third base is already a lot more than what we had last year – because last year was two months of Travis Shaw going bonkers and four months of nothing. Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr were really underwhelming in the second half, and they’re both such good hitters that I can’t imagine that continuing.

How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?

This is where the big bucks will be spent, because I expect them to get either Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon. Thanks to the departures of Koji Uehara, Brad Ziegler, and Junichi Tazawa, there’s an opening or two for late-inning work in the Red Sox bullpen.

Joe Kelly’s Great Stuff finally got him great results as a reliever, so he’s probably a lock for that. Craig Kimbrel is entrenched as the primary closer. Carson Smith probably won’t return until after the All-Star break at the earliest, but at least we’ll have his tweets. There’s very little in terms of internal options here, so there has to be a move for a major bullpen piece in free agency. Maybe they’ll bring Ziegler back, but with all the “he’s really open to coming back to AZ” articles that came out after the trade, I’m not too sure about it.

Jansen is obviously the preferred option of the two I mentioned, but with Aroldis Chapman teasing a $100 million contract, you know Jansen will be almost as expensive as Chapman once the market is set. He’d be the most consistent option, but would also require a lot more money than Melancon, who has been quietly very good since 2013. He’s not going to be spectacular like Jansen, but instead merely great, and probably $10 million cheaper if we’re going for a three- or four-year deal. But we all know Dombrowski, and he’s doesn’t shy away from going big with a major deal. Jansen is my guess on who will be in a Red Sox uniform come January.

That leaves some concern over left-handed pitchers in the bullpen. Robbie Ross is fine, but I really don’t expect him to have a 0.33 HR/9 again, and if you’re worried about not having a guy who could be death to lefties, I’d like you to know that Robby Scott was superb in that role, albeit in a very small sample size. Plus, his windup will make you feel like Andrew Miller is back on the Red Sox, without, y’know, the whole getting-right-handed-batters-out thing. And the best-reliever-in-the-game arguments. Look, I really kind of miss Andrew Miller.

If the Red Sox do more than just Jansen/Melancon, the Miami Marlins’ bullpen has some nice pieces you could get for a pretty penny. A.J. Ramos would be a nice addition, Kyle Barraclough is intriguing, and David Phelps looked revitalized in a relief role in 2016.

Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?

This doesn’t seem likely to me. Price-Porcello-Rodriguez-Pomeranz-Wright/Buchholz is a decent rotation with a lot of upside in Rodriguez, a modest rebound candidate in Price, and a solid gamble in Pomeranz. I don’t think Porcello is Cy-Young-Award-contender good – and neither does Craig Goldstein, for good reason – so there’s going to be some regression there. If Steven Wright stays doing what he did last year, that’s a great boon to this unit, and if not, well, you could do a lot worse than Clay Buchholz.

The Red Sox will probably look to add a little depth to stash behind Henry Owens, Roenis Elias, and Brian Johnson, but I don’t see a major addition here.

Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?

I don’t think so, no. The most likely one to be traded is Blake Swihart, and I can’t see him traded right now. The Red Sox need to take a long, hard look at their catcher situation, and see if Sandy Leon can keep hitting, Christian Vazquez can go back to playing stellar defense, and if Blake Swihart can improve his defense. Swihart should start the year in Triple-A to get his feet back under him, so they have time to evaluate everything here.

Yoan Moncada is untouchable. Rafael Devers’ bat is so good that I think he’s kept himself in the Red Sox’s plans for now. I don’t even think they consider swapping Michael Kopech with anyone unless they’re overwhelmed, because he might end up being the first good starting pitcher to come out of the Red Sox’s system in nearly a decade.

Miscellaneous Thoughts

Third base is going to be hell again. Remember that black hole that inhabited the Red Sox’s shortstop position for roughly a decade? It’s back. It just moved one spot to the left. Travis Shaw was little more than a warm body once May had ended, Brock Holt just isn’t a good enough hitter to start there (or anywhere, for that matter), and Pablo Sandoval didn’t even get to hit last year. On top of that, there’s not a readily available platoon option to pair with Shaw. So I see Sandoval getting the job out of Spring Training. The Red Sox really have nothing to lose by going to him, and they didn’t get much of anything out of third base in 2016, so it’s worth a shot.

I like Heath Hembree, but the guy is always the odd man out in the bullpen, so I can’t see him on the 25-man roster with Jansen and Buchholz being in there. Poor guy. Odds are another team will show interest.

It’s not exciting that I see the Red Sox doing what seems to be very little, but I’ve touted the positives of being conservative before, because the next two offseasons are going to be insane in terms of the talent hitting free agency. If they want to have a shot at guys like Yu Darvish, they need to play it relatively safe.

Photo by Kevin Jairaj/USA Today Sports Images

It’s shaping up to be the most sedate offseason in a long while in Boston. The roster looks pretty set, much of the depth in the farm system has been spent, and the stable of youth on the Major League roster begs to be left alone to coalesce into a consistent championship core. Will Dave Dombrowski know enough to let well enough alone? Probably not! Let’s answer some questions!

How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz’s production?: 

The easy answer is to sign Edwin Encarnacion. The more I think about that, the more I hate it. Encarnacion is older (he’ll be 34), he’s a big name which will make him even more expensive, and signing him will cost extreme amounts of money and Boston’s first-round draft pick. The team is poised to take a step backwards offensively next season if for no other reason than regression to the mean, but this seems like killing an ant with a grenade launcher. Unfortunately for the future of the franchise, as we’ve seen over the past year, this is Dombrowski’s style. I’d prefer the team saved with an eye towards the huge 2018 free agent market and looked to a shorter-term solution like Carlos Beltran. He’s a name who has been getting some press recently, so it’s possible he requires two years rather than one, but even if so, he’s going to get a pittance compared to Encarnacion, and he won’t cost a draft pick. So I’ll cross my fingers and predict that.

However, if they’re going to go big, go really big and explore dealing for Joey Votto. He’s on a huge long term contract ($25 million annually until 2023 when he’ll be 39), but he’s also one of the best hitters in the game. He’s been at least a six win player by WARP every year but one since 2010. As we’ve seen with Ortiz and even Beltran, elite offensive players can maintain productivity into their late 30s (considering his late blossoming I’m less convinced this applies to Encarnacion). Votto is the rare player who can replace Ortiz’s on-field production one-for-one, and given their current state it’s entirely possible the Reds would be open to dealing him. He’d be perfect to plug into the middle of the Red Sox lineup. Imagine a three-four-five of Votto-Betts-Ramirez! Yummy.

But still, the guess here is just Beltran.

How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?:

Here’s another opportunity for Dombrowski to slam down a nail with a sledge hammer. He could throw $100 million (or more!) at Kenley Jansen but, again, I’d rather save that money and buy some portion of Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw or Bryce Harper a year down the line. The Red Sox pen could undoubtedly use some reinforcements, but the smart clubs either draft Jansen, or make the Andrew Millers of the world from failed starting pitchers. That doesn’t seem to be Dombrowski’s style, though, so expect the Red Sox to be heavily involved in the Jansen/Aroldis Chapman rumors. That said, in the end it’s going to be too heavy for even Dombrowski considering he already has Craig Kimbrel in the closer’s role, so expect a trade or two. Perhaps a sizable prospect package for a middle reliever (just enough to cause Red Sox Twitter to poop their collective pants) and/or a player like Clay Buchholz for a seventh-inning guy. Perhaps, dare I dream, a player like Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers. It won’t be the best use of resources, but it’ll plug the leak for another season. 

Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?: 

For the record, I like the Red Sox rotation as it is. Porcello probably won’t be as effective as he was in 2016 but David Price should be better. Also, I expect more from Eduardo Rodriguez, and Drew Pomeranz should be around for the whole season. That’s a strong top four. And I didn’t even mention Steven Wright or Clay Buchholz, two more-than-capable fifth starters. Really, there’s no reason to spend the kind of prospect/player capital necessary to acquire a Jose Quintana or Chris Sale, but given the guy in charge, that kind of subtlety need not apply. 

So, given that, one advantage to adding a free agent like Encarnacion or Beltran is all the big prospects can be devoted to upgrading the rotation. We recall last season when Chris Sale was heavily rumored to be available, and after the way the White Sox season finished, it seems he’ll at least be placed on the market to see what offers are available. We’re not breaking any news by saying Dombrowski loves Sale. In fairness, who doesn’t? Surely Dombrowski is intrigued by bludgeoning the AL East with a Sale-Price-Porcello top of the rotation. And really, it sounds fantastic. The issue is how much it’ll cost and what that cost will be to the future of the franchise. That’s the type of move I’d expect though. A big name for big prospects. 

Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?:  

Probably is the correct answer. Dombrowski is the antithesis of a prospect hugger, so for the right player (Chris Sale) he won’t be afraid to move a Yoan Moncada whereas most GMs would be terrified (rightly) that they’d just traded away the best and cheapest seasons of a young Alex Rodriguez. When it comes to Moncada specifically, it’s also worth noting, for as impressive as he’s been in the minors and as touted as he is (probably the number one prospect in baseball), Dombrowski didn’t scout or sign him. Moncada is the old GM’s guy. The vast millions spent on bringing him in were fought for and spent on Ben Cherington’s watch, so while Cherington might be all in on Moncada making an impact in Boston had he stayed with the organization, Dombrowski doesn’t have that burden. He sees Moncada as another asset in his prospect cabinet, another way to improve the Major League roster right now. That’s not to say he’ll give Moncada away, but with Dave Dombrowski, there are no untouchables in the minor leagues. If Chris Sale is available, and I expect he will be for the right offer, Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox will be first in line with Yoan Moncada the primary bait. Perhaps a package of Moncada, Mauricio Dubon and Eduardo Rodriguez would peak the White Sox interest. 

Miscellaneous Thoughts: 

Biggest Acquisition: Chris Sale
Biggest Departure: Yoan Moncada, Clay Buchholz
Biggest Surprise: Chris Sale!!!

Top photo by David Banks II/USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox only have a few holes in the roster as it’s currently constructed, but they’re obvious. The retirement of David Ortiz makes the roster more flexible, but it also takes away one of the best offensive players of 2016. The impending departures of Koji Uehara, Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa also leave a lot of spots open in the bullpen. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts essentially require contract extensions at this point. Clay Buchholz’s option will probably be picked up, but his usage is still up in the air. As you can see, there’s quite a bit on the Sox’s itinerary.

Naturally, there are already suggestions as to how best to fill the holes. Signing Edwin Encarnacion or Jose Bautista is a big one. Adding Kenley Jansen seems to have picked up steam in recent weeks. Trading for a first baseman like Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt has been out there for a while. Then there’s the more conservative options, like bringing back Uehara and Ziegler. Most of these options are viable, sure. But most of them are also costly. A signing of Encarnacion, Bautista, or Jansen would likely require a big contract relative to their peers, and a trade for Votto or Goldschmidt is going to require giving away at least a few good prospects. The Red Sox can’t clean out all their resources now, not with what’s coming the next two winters.

Next winter, Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish and Craig Kimbrel could all become free agents. All of them will require a burdensome contract to reel in. All of them would make a great fit on the Red Sox. The year after that is even more bonkers. Guys like Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, and Madison Bumgarner all hit free agency, making it a winter that could define the next decade. On top of all that, that’s when David Price can exercise the opt-out in his contract. The Red Sox would behoove themselves to take advantage of that potential upheaval, and the preparation can begin now with little short-term harm to the team.

1. The first order of business would be to try and lock up the two players vital to the Red Sox’s core in Betts and Bogaerts. This is also where you begin to outline exactly how much you could have to spend over the next two winters. The Red Sox have to move now on this because if they get better – and all signs point to them doing so – it’ll become even harder to retain them, and these are two budding stars they can’t afford to lose. With Jackie Bradley Jr., however, they can wait and see. He’s a superb defensive outfielder, but the offense comes and goes with him, evidenced by the .926 OPS in the first half of the season, and the free fall to a .728 mark in the second half. He’s not as urgent as the other two.
2. After that, the next thing should be to work on the relief pitching. Bringing back Uehara is a nice idea, but he showed clear signs of regression in 2016, and would have to come back on a much lighter contract than what he had. Brad Ziegler is a candidate for re-signing, but there have been rumors that the Diamondbacks would like to get him back this winter. Kenley Jansen is a nice idea, and would be one hell of a bullpen combo with Kimbrel. As relievers go, he’s one of the best and most consistent out there. He’ll probably ask for a contract like the four-year, $50 million one that Jonathan Papelbon got back in 2011, and while that’s not the most punishing thing, it’s steep for a guy who might only pitch four percent of all possible innings pitched. Of the possible big contracts, his is probably the safest.
3. Hitting should be the last thing on the Red Sox’s list. The hole left by Ortiz isn’t as huge as you might think. You don’t need an Encarnacion or a Votto to make up for some of that offense. The Red Sox rolled out the best offense in the American League with a .269 TAv, and it won’t hurt to drop a little, especially with the competition in the AL East losing a lot of their key players, most notably Toronto. Instead of vying for Encarnacion or Bautista, the Red Sox would probably come out better by going for someone like Matt Holliday or Carlos Beltran for a year or two. It makes the roster a little inflexible, but the Red Sox don’t have a comparable hitter on the roster, and no, Travis Shaw isn’t going to cut it. A short contract with an older hitter would do wonders for the team.

A plan like that would keep the Red Sox in the running for whatever they want over the next two summers. They don’t need to throw money everywhere. The pitching needs some tune ups in the relief corps and the offense doesn’t require a drastic overhaul. The Sox could probably spend $65M on just Jansen and Holliday, call it a winter, and still come to Spring Training as a pretty strong favorite to win another AL East pennant. They’d be limiting themselves in the near future by spending a lot in the upcoming one.

This will be the second winter with Dave Dombrowski at the helm, and I’m very curious to see what he’ll do. The Red Sox are definitely changing, and adeptly navigating the next few years could prove to be both career- and franchise-defining. The thing about success is that it’s a lot easier to initially achieve it than to consistently do so. Being conservative this offseason could go a long way to keeping the Red Sox winning for a long while.

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